At the beginning of the season, I decided that the Pirates would be my bandwagon team for the year. (I always root for the Cubs and one team that hasn’t been very good and looks like it might make a leap forward.) As such, I watched probably 65 Cubs games (as usual) and maybe 40 Pirates games and kept checking the standings.

The summary of my prediction was that the Pirates could maintain a good pitching staff and if it just got more out of the offense it might give the team the 100-run improvement (some combination of fewer runs allowed and more runs scored that total 100) and make it to the playoffs.

So – I figured the Pirates would go 88 – 74 (up from their 71 – 91 season in 2025) and make the playoffs. This record was based on scoring about 700 runs and allowing 650 runs. I provided breakdowns of the key pitchers and regulars in the field – so let’s see how I did.

Well, the Pirates improved by 11 games, winning 82 and clearing .500 for the first time since Andrew McCutcheon was an MVP candidate. The offense, spurred by a great season from Brandon Lowe and good seasons from many of his teammates did better than expected, scoring 767 runs. However, the pitching staff fell well off – Paul Skenes was no longer the Cy Young Ace of 2025, among others falling short of optimistic seasons – and allowed 739 runs. And, the team underperformed in terms of making use of that combination of runs scored and allowed. I hoped they would steal an extra win, but rather they fell two games shy of the record you might expect of a team with that combination of runs.

Still – an 11 game improvement!

Let’s get to the details, starting with the pitchers.

Looking at the top thirteen pitchers based on what it could have been against what it was – the starters were all a bit off from my expectations (like my expectations matter), starting with Skenes and continuing down the line. Heck, just between Skenes and Keller, the team gave up 20 extra runs in 77 fewer innings of work. Even with the extra work from the returning Jared Jones, there was no way to make up for that lack of production. The bullpen was closer to expectations: some better (Sisk, Soto, Montgomery, Ramirez) and some worse (Santana, Mattson, Dotel) but still a tad worse than hoped. Still – the team gave up 89 runs more than I predicted. I think they can be better, but it starts with Skenes finding his way, Chandler walking 30 to 40 fewer batters, and finding someone to improve upon Mitch Keller’s injury-ended season. I am going to remain optimistic here – the Pirates have good arms and will be better in 2027.

Over to the hitters.

In the main, the team went from well below average to about 24 runs above average – and the regulars did more or less what we might have expected them to do.

So what’s up with Henry Davis? Well – it’s defense. He’s a running game stopper (20 SB vs. 17 CS) and his backups weren’t anywhere near that good. He also makes far fewer mistakes – there are way fewer passed balls and wild pitches when Davis is behind the plate. Depending on the defensive metrics model, Davis easily makes up for his lack of offense with stellar defense.

Anyway – on balance, the Pirates were a much better offensive team and even outscored my runs scored prediction by nearly 70 runs.

As for my prediction, I’m okay with being wrong, seeing as the Pirates still made a legitimate improvement and actually finished above .500. I’ll probably keep watching their games next year, too.

Coda:

It will be interesting to see what the Pirates do to find another improvement of 100 runs and get to 90 wins. They could use another starter; they will likely stand pat with that offense. But this was a fun team to watch – contending through much of the season despite chasing two division rivals that are genuinely playoff worthy (Milwaukee, Chicago).