Finally getting caught up on my statistical analysis as I head into the 2012 Spring Training season… First of all, God Bless Sean Lahman, whose baseball database makes it possible to write queries and look at statistics using a Microsoft Access relational database… The rest is doing the math.
When I review best and worst pitchers, I look at the total number of runs saved relative to the league average pitcher. I get data for runs allowed per nine innings, then adjust for the pitcher’s home park and finally I adjust for the defense of the players behind that pitcher. The best pitcher is the one who saves his team the most runs – the worst is the pitcher who costs his team the most runs.
Top Starting Pitchers of 2011:
Roy Halliday (PHI) 45.37 saved runs – 233.2 innings
Cliff Lee (PHI) 43.94 – 232.2 innings
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) 37.81 – 233.1 innings
Cole Hamels (PHI) 34.28 – 216 innings
Ian Kennedy (AZ) 31.53 – 222 innings
Johnny Cueto (CIN) 20.82 – 156 innings
Jair Jurrjens (ATL) 17.56 – 152 innings
Jhoulys Chacin (COL) 17.53 – 194 innings
R.A. Dickey (NYM) 15.92 – 208.2 innings
Vance Worley (PHI) 15.53 – 131.2 innings
You want to know why the Phillies won 100+ games, it’s because they had three of the top four starting pitchers, and a fourth who wound up in the top ten. Even Roy Oswalt (not listed) was an above average pitcher. Clayton Kershaw was a fantastic choice for the NL Cy Young award, but the numbers suggest what we all know – Roy Halliday is the best pitcher in baseball.
Worst Pitchers of 2011:
Bronson Arroyo (CIN) 27.88 (extra runs allowed)- 199 innings
J.A. Happ (HOU) 25.44 – 156.1 innings
Derek Lowe (ATL) 25.20 – 187 innings
Livan Hernandez (WASH) 24.16 – 175.1 innings
Ricky Nolasco (FLA) 23.26 – 206 innings
Casey Coleman (CHI) 22.88 – 84.1 innings
Edinson Volquez (CIN) 22.31 – 108.2 innings
Jonathan Sanchez (SF) 21.19 – 101.1 innings
Chris Volstad (FLA) 20.64 – 165.2 innings
Barry Zito (SF) 19.3 – 53.2 innings
The guy who usually tops this list is a starter who keeps getting run out there as if his team has no other options. Certainly, the Reds should have been able to address the Bronson Arroyo problem by now (nearly 30 extra runs allowed than an average pitcher over the course of 199 innings), and running him out there every fifth day was problematic. The Marlins have the same issue with Ricky Nolasco. He’s got amazing stuff, but for some reason keeps getting hit. If he doesn’t turn things around, the Marlins will have to find another option. By the way, the Marlins can’t afford to have two guys on the bad list and make the playoffs. The Brewers used to be on this list – and then they got five league average pitchers to match up with their amazing offense and made the playoffs.
By the way, this is total runs that one player cost his team. Barry Zito, for example, was far worse per inning than Arroyo. Had Barry been allowed to throw 200 innings, at the rate he was going he would have given up close to 75 extra runs. The Giants had other options, so Zito was removed from the rotation before any further overall damage could be done.
Top Relievers of 2011:
Eric O’Flaherty (ATL) 24.99 (runs saved) – 73.2 innings
Tyler Clippard (WASH) 21.58 – 88.3 innings
Jonny Venters (ATL) 21.58 – 88 innings
Craig Kimbrel (ATL) 16.36 – 77 innings
John Axford (MIL) 15.50 – 73.2 innings
Joel Hanrahan (PIT) 15.41 – 68.2 innings
Fernando Salas (SD) 14.76 – 75 innings
Mike Adams (SD) 14.15 – 48 innings
Sean Marshall (CHI) 14.08 – 75.2 innings
Ryan Madson (PHI) 12.63 – 60.2 innings
Few surprises here – guys who gave up hardly any runs in a decent number of innings. The Braves certainly had the best bullpen in 2011.
Worst Relievers of 2011:
Hong-Chih Kuo (LAD) 18.39 (extra runs allowed) – 27 innings
Aneury Rodruiguez (HOU) 14.62 – 85.1 innings
Ryan Franklin (STL) 14.17 – 27.2 innings
Dan Runzler (SF) 13.84 – 27.1 innings
Matt Maloney (CIN) 12.54 – 18.2 innings
I’ll cut off the list at five – guys who make this list are people who wind up in AAA or released before you know it. Still Kuo was bad – basically six runs worse than any other guy every nine innings he pitched. Aneury Rodriguez was the lone exception…