In case you were curious, Boston’s new outfielder, Mike Cameron, produced more total runs (offensively and defensively combined) than any other AL centerfielder in 2009. I would never have guessed this had I not run the numbers… I don’t think that this will hold when he gets to the AL East, but you never know. He could surprise us by staying young and avoiding curveballs.
Franklin Gutierrez (SEA): A key player in Seattle’s improvement… Mid-range power but has room to grow. Defensively was as good as advertised. His lone weakness would appear to be his lack of patience at the plate. Cleveland is going to miss this guy… (87.0 Runs Created, 14.4 Runs Saved = 101.34 Total Run Production)
Denard Span (MIN): A valuable leadoff hitter with decent range in the outfield – had a OBP near .400 and stole 23 bases. You gotta like that kind of production. Span is one of the biggest reasons that the Twins won the AL Central… (94.9 Runs Created, 4.2 Runs Saved = 99.15 Total Run Production)
Ryan Sweeney (OAK): Can play this position, but is probably destined to play in right… Would rank here if he was the starter.
Torii Hunter (LAA): Missed time with injuries, else would have ranked #1. By my count, this is the first time that he’s been better than average defensively in the last four seasons – and it could have been the time off. Hunter’s season was very good – average was up, OBP and SLG were up. However, that makes me think he might be due for a step back. Doesn’t make me less of a fan – just more of a realist. (87.4 Runs Created, 7.7 Runs Saved = 95.07 Total Run Production)
Curtis Granderson (DET): Heads to the Yankees in a period of decline. His batting average fell below .250, though he works for walks, hits for power, and steals bases. Still – he was below average defensively and has slipped each of the last two seasons following his breakout 2007 season. He’s a gas to watch play – I hope he finds his way back to greatness. (96.7 Runs Created, -3.8 Runs Saved = 92.89 Total Run Production)
If you are a Detroit fan, you are probably going to want to know more about your new center fielder, Austin Jackson. The Yankee prospect hit .300 and stole 24 bases at AAA Scranton last year. Jackson has little power and if he’s a burner, isn’t stealing 60 bases but occasionally hitting the 30 mark – and he doesn’t get thrown out a lot. He does, however, strike out a bit. I like Scott Sizemore more than this guy, but he might be okay. He’ll likely cover more ground than Granderson did – but I think he’ll be lucky to generate 80 runs of offense in 550 at bats without finding a way to get a few more extra base hits.
Adam Jones (BAL): A poor man’s Franklin Gutierrez. Great glove, medium range power, would like a higher batting average and OBP, can run the bases. (73.4 Runs Created, 16.44 Runs Saved = 89.79 Total Run Production)
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS): In a year where he had awful defensive stats, he tied the record for outfield putouts in a game. Go figure. Led AL in steals with 70… Gets to play the Monster in 2010… Let’s say that Ellsbury will look better defensively and maintain his offensive production as a left fielder. Last year, Jason Bay was worth more than 130 runs of production. At BEST, Ellsbury will be worth 100. That’s a three game difference in the standings. (102.8 Runs Created, -16.5 Runs Saved = 86.28 Total Run Production)
Scott Podsednik (CWS): Now in Kansas City – and God Forbid the Sox actually put Juan Pierre here. Podsednik was pretty much an Ellsbury clone. Ellsbury’s numbers: .301/.415/.358 – Podsednik’s numbers: .304/.412/.354. Podsednik stole only 30 bases and got fewer total plate appearances – and plays in a slightly better park for hitters. Still – not much difference. Podsednik, however, made up for the offensive production with a solid year defensively. The Royals should be happy with Studriffic Podsednik – but even with that isn’t more than a one or two year option. (81.5 Runs Created, 4.7 Runs Saved = 86.24 Total Run Production)
Grady Sizemore (CLE): Tried to play the whole season, but eventually his body broke down and he needed surgery on just about every part of his body. Must have happened after the pictures were taken… Anyway… Sizemore bounced back a little with his range and despite the .248 batting average was able to generate offense because he works the count for walks and hits for some power. He was a poor man’s Curtis Granderson with a long DL trip. (75.3 Runs Created, 1.9 Runs Saved = 77.22 Total Run Production)
Alex Rios, if he played a full season in center, would probably rank about here. Cited by some as having one of the worst contracts in baseball, Rios turned one year in his youth into a multi-year mammoth contract. Forced to play right field because the Blue Jays insisted on playing Vernon Wells in center (wasting 20 runs a year defensively that their pitchers would like back) – Rios would have been a top flight defender with tolerable offense and, as such, would likely rank near the top of this list. He’s no longer a GREAT centerfielder – he’s probably league average – and there’s a chance that his bat will bounce back. At this point, however, he’s likely staying in right for the Sox and one hopes he doesn’t struggle to hit .200 as he did after arriving in Chicago.
Marlon Byrd (TEX): Look at your new center fielder, Chicago. For the first time ever, Byrd reached out and hit 20 homers. He might do that in Wrigley Field if the wind blows out – but more likely he’ll be around 12. He does hit a few doubles though. His OBP is league average (.334) and that won’t change next year. And, he’s miscast as a centerfielder. Granted – this is still better than having to put Kosuke Fukudome out there or even Sam Fuld, but if Marlon Byrd is a championship level player, I don’t see it. Jim Hendry, stop getting players from Texas. (85.5 Runs Created, -11.6 Runs Saved = 73.83 Total Run Production)
The new center fielder in Texas will be Julio Borbon, a burner out of the University of Tennessee who has been a consistent .310 hitter in the minors and even hit .312 in his two months with the Rangers. He can fly – he’s my early pick to lead the AL in stolen bases. Not sure if he’ll lead off, too. I DON’T expect him to have the defensive impact that Elvis Andrus had, but playing him there where he has a chance to be league average, as opposed to playing Hamilton or Byrd there will still help the team.
Rajai Davis (OAK): He ranks pretty low here, but give him 1300 innings in center and 600 at bats. Unless he gets a case of Jerome Walton disease, he’s going to help the cause a lot. Decent OBP and batting average but no power, covers enough ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s given the lead off spot, gets 180 – 200 hits, and scores 110 runs. (69.1 Runs Created, 2.4 Runs Saved = 71.58 Total Run Production)
B.J. Upton (TB): Coming out of the World Series, didn’t you think Upton was on the verge of becoming a superstar? It didn’t happen. Injuries sapped his power, his batting average, and his range in the outfield. He’s an electrifying player – but last year wasn’t his thing. (73.1 Runs Created, -2.2 Runs Saved = 70.92 Total Run Production)
Vernon Wells (TB): When I listed Alex Rios as having one of the worst contracts in baseball, it’s got NOTHING on the deal that Toronto gave Vernon Wells. Slipping with the bat, has been a problem with his poor range in center. The time has come to find a speedster to take over center field for the last remaining team in Canada. 15 – 66 – .260 isn’t going to cut it if you are costing your team more than 15 runs a season with the glove… And don’t let the total runs created number fool you. The average hitter generates 5 runs for every 27 outs made. Wells is around 4.7 (84.6 Runs Created, -16.8 Runs Saved = 67.83 Total Run Production)
Melky Cabrera (NYY): The job belongs to Granderson or Brett Gardner now. Your new Atlanta Brave centerfielder was your league average offensive player (13 – 68 – .274) with slightly below average range. Unless he has a significant step up left in his body, he’s not going to be a championship calibre player. He’s better than what Kansas City played out there, but that’s not saying very much. Gardner has better range than Cabrera (6.6 runs saved in fewer innings) – and if he can push his OBP up near .400, might be a better hitter, too. (71.5 Runs Created, -6.5 Runs Saved = 65.00 Total Run Production)
Carlos Gomez (MIN): Now in Minnesota, Gomez was an AMAZING defensive player, but can’t hit a lick. No average (.229), no power (3 homers, .337 SLG), no walks (.287 OBP), runs a little. If he hits .260 and gets his OBP closer to .340, the Brewers will get a steal. As such, they get a #8 hitter who makes all the pitchers look good. (31.1 Runs Created, 20.0 Runs Saved = 51.02 Total Run Production)
Mitch Maier (KC): Coco Crisp was mightily disappointing – injured a lot, didn’t hit when he did play, and wasn’t quite league average as a fielder. Crisp is destined four fourth outfielder status somewhere after this year… Mitch Maier played the most innings, was pretty good with the leather, and while he didn’t hit much, still produced more than 50 runs. He’ll be a fourth outfielder in KC and get innings that Podsednik misses.
Josh Hamilton (TEX): Suffered through a ton of shoulder and stomach and groin injuries – isn’t really a centerfielder to be fair and should be in right field. Struggled to produce at the pace he did in 2008 – in fact was slightly below average when all was said and done. Pulling for another comeback as a right fielder. (45.0 Runs Created, -3.8 Runs Saved = 41.22 Total Run Production)
NOTES: Having done this, none of the centerfielders had a breakout season the way the other positions had someone who was in the 130 runs produced level… It’ll be interesting to see if anyone can take a step up in 2010. My money is on Denard Span.