When I first started blogging here, I used to write predictions for various teams based on the previous year’s stats, some expectations from the current team and a few other things. I’ve done these off and on for my own entertainment, but it invariably leads to me picking some team that had been less competitive but could now become really competitive. Based on that optimism, that’s the team I spend time watching. A few years back, I saw Arizona in a position to win – and they did. I saw the Tigers in a position to win – and they’ve been in the playoffs for two straight years.

For 2026, I’m watching Pirates games.

If I were a general manager trying to build up an unsuccessful team, I’d try to work in 100-run increments. What can we do in the off-season to move the needle forward by 100 runs? Can we improve the defense? Can we acquire or develop pitchers who allow fewer runs? Can we get a bat or three that can score more runs? If we can find 100 runs, you might be able to get 10 more wins and move up in the standings.

I think the Pirates moved the needle 100 runs.

Last year, the Pirates struggled.

2025 Record: 71 – 91 (5th NL East)
Runs Scored: 583
Runs Allowed: 645
Expected Record: 74 – 88

Pitching:

The pitching actually very good – they had a mega-star ace and a reasonable amount of help. In fact, Pittsburgh allowed 75 runs fewer than the average MLB team. The problem was not preventing runs – it was scoring them.

At the left is a list of the top pitchers from last season (top five starters, then swingmen or infrequent starters, then the bullpen).

At the right is a list of the top starters as well as a list of the top relievers.

I think the Pirates are going to miss Mike Burrows and Johan Oviedo, but if Urquidy returns to form and Bubba Chandler is at least pretty good for a full season, the Pirates will still have a functional and successful pitching staff.

What about the offense?

The Pirates had few regular players who were average or better in generating runs at their positions.

Catchers:
Henry Davis -19
Joey Bart 0

(How on earth does Henry Davis get half the at bats behind the plate last year?)

Infield:
1B-Spencer Horwitz 9
2B-Nick Gonzales -8
3B-KeBryan Hayes -19
SS-Isiah Kiner-Falefa -11
UTIL-Jared Triolo -3
2B-Adam Frazier -5

Outfield:
LF-Tommy Pham -1
CF-Oneil Cruz -9
RF-Bryan Reynolds -1
DH-Andrew McCutcheon -4
UTIL-Alex. Canario -8
UTIL-Jack Suwinski -10

TOTAL ABOVE/BELOW AVG -89

Looking ahead for 2026, here’s what might be expected in terms of run production for the Pirates lineup:

Catchers:
Joey Bart 0
Henry Davis -10

This expects little change in player output, but Joey Bart plays 75% of the games rather than half.

Infield:
1B-Spencer Horwitz 9
2B-Brandon Lowe 10
3B-Jared Triolo -5
SS-Konnor Griffin 0
UTIL-Nick Gonzalez -8

Outfield:
LF-Bryan Reynolds 12
CF-Oneil Cruz -5
CF/UT-Jake Mangum -5
RF-Ryan O’Hearn 12
DH-Marcel Ozuna 13

TOTAL ABOVE/BELOW AVG +23

So, if the Pirates go from nearly 90 runs below average to maybe 20 – 25 runs above average – that’s 110 to 115 more runs scored.

What could go wrong?

Well – Ryan O’Hearn might struggle in the outfield. Oneil Cruz isn’t a natural centerfielder – and a few balls landing in the right-center field gap could make the runs allowed number slide up from 650 to 675. Konnor Griffin – who I have here as essentially a league average rookie – might not play here in 2026. (He’s had an interesting spring, but one that makes you think the Pirates will leave him in AA or AAA for at least two months to avoid him getting closer to his free agent year.) And, as always, optimism ends when an elbow hurts. The Pirates need full seasons (at least 120 innings) from people who haven’t done that recently.

Finally, the division has three pretty good teams already in the Chicago Cubs, the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Cincinnati Reds – all playoff teams last year.

That said, I remain optimistic. I think letting Jake Magnum pick up OF innings is going to help and even if Marcell Ozuna’s age becomes a problem, moving Mangum to CF, O’Neil to RF and having O’Hearn be a DH will still keep the offense moving.

I’m rooting for this 110-run bounce in offense and continued good pitching. I think the team should score 700 runs and allow about 650. If it does that, you are looking at an 87-win team. And, since the Pirates were a little unlucky last year – winning fewer games than expected – let’s give them an extra win.

So, you heard it here first. I think the Pirates will win 88 games and be a contender for the Wild Card in the National League.

We are family… Sing it with me…