Congratulations to Juan Soto, who signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. The contract includes an escape clause after five years – so if Soto thinks he can earn more than the $51 million average annual salary then, he can go back to being a free agent. The Mets can avoid this, however, should they choose to add another $80 million to the contract over the final ten years of the deal before Soto chooses to leave.

This confirms what people long suspected – maybe even exceeds it – that one of the big players with deep pockets would give three quarters of a billion dollars to the rare young superstar upon entering his free agent period of life. I, for one, am not sure that anyone is worth that kind of cash – but I don’t have that kind of cash to spend anyway. More to the point – I don’t want to commit that kind of money to someone older than 36, so the Mets will pay $300 million to someone who will be past his prime. I would have paid $70 million over eight years and had a $40 option on a two year extension worth another $70 million per year. That way, I could get out at $600 million total in eight years and let someone else overpay beyond that if he wasn’t producing like a $70 million dollar player.

More importantly, however, is whether or not the Mets will get some value out of Juan Soto. He immediately is slotted into the heart of a lineup (second or third, I’d gather) that could use some help in that (a) the DH, J.D. Martinez is likely running out of good at bats, and (b) The Polar Bear himself, Pete Alonso, is also a free agent looking for a good paycheck – and in a good season, is a great run creator. It’s a lot to ask that the Mets sign Alonso, too – but imagine having Soto and Alonzo batting 3 – 4 behind Lindor and, oh, Brent Baty or someone like that. It’s a good top of the lineup. Alonso might go to another suiter, though, putting Mark Vientos at 1B. Vientos looks to be an excellent hitter – maybe not Pete Alonso but a worthy option. The Mets could use some depth to that lineup, though, and an upgrade in the rotation.

So who was the last Juan Soto type? As a south Floridan these days, the answer to me was Miguel Cabrera. Here’s a comparison of the two thanks to our friends at Baseball-Reference.com.

I’ll be honest, I was surprised that Soto was already 10 WAR ahead of Cabrera after seven years – especially given that Cabrera was well ahead in the counting stats. The difference between the two is the fact that Soto doesn’t make as many outs – and he’s a year younger than Cabrera. That said, if Soto continues to mimic Cabrera’s career, you can expect seven or eight really good years (Cabrera gave the Tigers seven more great seasons) and then some amount of hanging around value. Cabrera gave back nearly 3 WAR in his last seven years after his legs gave out.

For this to work to the Mets advantage, Soto has to avoid putting on weight and get lucky as regards injuries. If he can give the Mets, say, 50 WAR through 2032 (which is certainly possible given his age – he’s entering his prime), and then another 15 WAR over the denouement of his career, that’s a 100 WAR career – one of the 22 best careers amongst the hitters.