Category Archives: Xavier Nady

2012 Season Forecast: Washington Nationals

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2011 Season: 80 – 81 (3rd, NL East)
Runs Scored: 624 (12th, NL)
Runs Allowed: 643 (7th, NL)

A rain out prevented the team from having a chance at getting all the way back to .500.  Davey Johnson’s task is to find at least ten more wins, telling reporters at one point that if this team doesn’t make the playoffs he should be fired.  Let’s see if that can happen.

2011 Season Recap:

Without their ace, Stephen Strasburg, who was out following elbow surgery, the Nationals started adding even more pieces to the roster, building a team that remained competitive all season long – just in the wrong division.  What was odd was that the team played over .500 with Jim Riggleman, who then quit because he couldn’t get an extension to his contract.  Johnson took over – it took a month to figure things out, but he was 38 – 43 in his time with the team.

Just looking at the statistical breakdown, the team really just needed someone who could bat first or second.  Leadoff hitters batted  .226 with a .285 OBP and the number two hitters were worse – .222 with a .283 OBP, and the lowest slugging percentage other than the pitcher’s spot in the order.  Give them 70 extra runs out of those spots, and you have a team on the brink of a 90 win season.

Starting Pitching:

Last year, the Nationals opened with a rotation of John Lannan, Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, Tom Gorzelanny, and gave test drives to Ross Detwiler, Chien-Ming Wang and others before giving five starts to Strasburg when he came back in September.  The problem here is that Hernandez is really just eating innings but not that effective, costing his team some 24 runs against the league average.  Even Lannan, who has been their best pitcher prior to the arrival of Strasburg is below average now – -11 runs, and Wang, despite the winning record, cost the team almost nine runs.

Looking ahead, the Nationals now hope to get 30 starts from Strasburg, which could be worth 50 runs by replacing Hernandez – a huge change.  The Nationals also added Gio Gonzalez to the rotation – a solid starter for Oakland, who if he can take over for Lannan (who, surprisingly, found his way to AAA to start this season) and pitch close to what he did last year will save the team another 25 runs.  The rest of the rotation will include Edwin Jackson – and he has the potential to save another ten to fifteen runs over Marquis.  The last two spots go to Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmermann, both of whom showed promise last year.  Having Lannan as an alternate isn’t a bad thing – worst case he’s a bargaining chip for help later.  This could be a very tough rotation in 2012.

Relief Pitching:

At the back end, Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard are solid – a net 30 runs better than average pitching, though Storen’s ERA (2.75) is a touch high for a closer.  Sean Burnett and Todd Coffey are tolerable long men, and being able to move Tom Gorzelanny to the pen will be a help.  Another addition that could prove to be valuable is former stopper Brad Lidge and fireballer Henry Rodriguez.  It’s a reasonably deep staff with at least three solid options.  I think this team will be a shade better than last year – but not much.  The bullpen was pretty good as it was.

Catching:

Wilson Ramos took over the job – defensively, he’s pretty good.  As a hitter, he wasn’t bad either…  He has a little power, batted .267, and would take a walk if offered.  Backed up by Ivan Rodriguez, who can’t hit but can still work the plate and threw out more runners than were successful stealing, it wasn’t a bad combination.  However, former starter Jesus Flores is back and healthy, so Pudge was sent packing for 2012.  This remains a solid duo.

Infield:

This is a group with a little pop and solid defensively all around.  Adam LaRoche didn’t hit well last year, but Michael Morse was solid when he played there.  The problem is that they need TWO Michael Morse types.  Morse also played left, and moved to first only because LaRoche didn’t hit at all (3 – 15 – .172).  Danny Espinosa has power (21 homers, 55 extra base hits), but only hit .236, and Ian Desmond has a bit better batting average but less power.  Neither guy gets on base and each were hitting too frequently at the top of the order.  At third, Ryan Zimmerman missed two months with injuries – he needs to play a full season.  If he did, he’d be an MVP candidate.

These guys have room to grow, but it would help if Adam LaRoche found his hitting stroke.  Steve Lombardozzi and Mark DeRosa are around for insurance, but Lombardozzi isn’t as good a hitter as these guys and DeRosa hasn’t been healthy in three years.  I think Washington is going to miss Laynce Nix, who played a variety of positions and put a few runs on the board.

Outfield:

Last year, Michael Morse was the dominant hitter in the outfield.  Jayson Werth had signed the big contract to come to Washington and struggled, finishing with a .232 batting average, but he still helped to put runs on the board.  He drew 74 walks, was 19/22 on the bases, and had 47 extra base hits.  Granted – he didn’t hit to his contract, so there is room for improvement.  Rick Ankiel and Roger Bernadina will battle for playing time in center – and neither are even league average hitters anymore.

The top prospect on the team, Bryce Harper, has to play here.  Yes – he’s still a teen, but Werth or Harper has enough gas to cover centerfield and having Harper could be a step up over either Ankiel or Bernadina.  Mark DeRosa and Xavier Nady are around and will get at bats.  Neither has been a productive enough hitter since about 2008.

Morse can hit – he’s done it everywhere he has played.  Werth should be better – it’s all about getting someone else in the outfield (or first base) who can contribute.  I think if the Nationals get off to a slow start, Harper will be here quickly.

Prospects:

Let’s start with the obvious – Bryce Harper hit .318 with power and patience at A level Hagerstown and earned a trip to Harrisburg in AA where he wasn’t overmatched.  He may need a full season at AA or AAA, but I don’t know if the Nationals can wait for that.

AAA Syracuse features outfielder Chris Marrero, who has a decent bat and eye, but I don’t think he’s got enough power to merit a job at first base.  He’d be better than Adam LaRoche was last year, but not a game changer.  Pitcher Tommy Milone has an interesting line – only 16 walks and 155 Ks in 148.1 innings.  He got a look in 2011; he might get some long relief innings in 2012.  Ross Detwiler made 16 starts here before joining the rotation with the major league team.

AA Harrisburg had Harper for a little while, but featured the 31 homers of Tyler Moore.  Unfortunately, Moore’s power comes with a lot of strikeouts and little patience at the plate.  Catcher Derek Norris hit for power, but his batting average doesn’t make you long for his arrival yet.  Brad Peacock had a great run in AA – 129 Ks and 23 walks in 14 starts.  Something clicked for him – it was, by far, the best season he’d had in the minors in five seasons.

David Freitas, a catcher at Hagerstown, might have a future – he hit .288, drew 82 walks, and had mid-range power.  He could make the Nationals roster in a couple of years.  Infielder Blake Kelso also had a nice season, stole some bases, and will get a shot at AA soon.  Pitcher A.J. Cole fanned 108 in 89 innings, showed good control and kept the ball in the park.  He may have a nice future here.

2012 Forecast:

With the upgrade to the rotation, the Nationals look to save at least 80 runs when compared to the 2011 model – which would be a huge step forward.  The issue remains with the offense, which isn’t really good enough.  The lineup can be better.  Desmond or Espinosa could move forward ten runs each.  Werth could improve by twenty runs.  Zimmerman could play a full season – another twenty run impact.  On the other hand, Ankiel and Morse could fall back a similar amount.  The Nationals really need a leadoff hitter – and they don’t have one.

I see them scoring about twenty runs more than last year, and saving 80 more runs.  That puts them around 640 runs scored and 560 runs allowed – or 92 wins.  You might temper that total based on the competition in the division – the Phillies, Marlins, and Braves are all very good teams.  Realistically, the Nationals could win 90 games – I just don’t know if 90 will be enough to win the division.  It could be enough to get that second wild card slot.

2010 Season Forecast: Chicago Cubs

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Last Five Seasons:

2009: 83 – 78 (2nd – NL East)
2008: 97 – 74
2007: 85 – 77
2006: 66 – 96
2005: 79 – 83

Runs Scored: 707 (9th – NL)
Runs Allowed: 672 (5th – NL)

For what it’s worth, the Cubs and their opponents scored 732 runs in Wrigley Field and just 647 on the road last year…

Season Recap:

Picked by a ton of people to win the NL Central, the Cubs hung around the race for four months before throwing in the towel down the stretch.

Every time the Cubs would get rolling, they found a losing streak.  Two weeks in, Chicago rolled out to an 8 – 4 record, only to lose four in a row.  Recovering, they won 8 of 12 only to lose a couple more.  Into May, the Cubbies took off – rattling five in a row to get to 21 – 14.  Thinking that this win streak might put them out in front for good, Chicago lost EIGHT straight…

Hanging around .500 for the next several weeks, the Cubs entered the All-Star break at 43 – 42.  Sensing a need to get going, the Cubs rolled out to 57 – 48 and actually sneaked into the top spot for a day in late July.  That’s when the bullpen suddenly lost it.  The Marlins came back to beat former closer Kevin Gregg and the Cubs hit a tailspin that knocked them out of the NL Central race just as St. Louis was adding Holliday, DeRosa, and Lopez for the stretch run.  The Cubs fell back to a game over .500, made a small fuss for the wild card race, and then disappeared.

Injuries hurt the Cubs as much as many other teams – losing Aramis Ramirez, Milton Bradley (injuries to his body as well as his attitude), Ted Lilly and Alfonso Soriano – but poor performances were equally to blame.  Milton Bradley signed a three-year, $30 million deal and proceeded to hit .257 with middling power.  Soriano’s season was worse – knee injuries and age contributing to a horrific .241 batting average.  And Geovany Soto, such a huge part of the 2008 NL Central Champs, fell off to .218, with just 11 homers.  Throw in the decline of a portly Carlos Zambrano, who failed to win ten games and missed at least six starts, and you can see why the Cubs fell back 13.5 games from 2008.

2010 Goals:

Lessee…  The Cubs need an attitude adjustment.  Bringing Milton Bradley was a BAD idea – no matter how good his upside might have been, there’s no excuse for that deal.  Just as importantly, the big horses need to find the old mojo and get healthy.  Soto and Zambrano need to return to form and it would be nice to get 140 healthy games out of Ramirez and Soriano – both of whom are running out of youth.  Finding a dependable closer would help, too.

Pitchers:

On paper, the Cubs have a fantastic rotation.  Carlos Zambrano should be an innings eater, and if his off-season fitness plan works out (no pun intended), he could return to form.  He pitched okay in the 160 innings he logged in 2009, but he needs to pitch 220 or more.  Ted Lilly will be back, but might miss a few starts early on as he recovers from minor surgery to clean up his elbow.  Ryan Dempster returns, as well as last year’s top newcomer, Randy Wells.  The fifth starter is former Pirate star (and Jayhawk alum) Tom Gorzelanny – who a couple of years ago was the ace of the Pirates staff.  Last year, the Cubs front five (the top four plus Rich Harden) were about 68 runs better than average and threw  852 innings.  That’s going to be hard to BEAT, but is something that the Cubs should be able to hold steady for 2010.

The bullpen wasn’t horrible – as a group about 16 runs better than average – but it lacked a big time stopper.  Kevin Gregg saved 23 games, but was really only decent for three months and scary the rest of the way.  He’s gone…  Carlos Marmol assumed the closer role – nearly impossible to hit stuff but walks a batter an inning which makes him Mitch Williams with a better chance to field grounders.  Angel Guzman and John Grabow return to set the table, and Jeff Samardzija, Justin Berg, Sean Marshall will get long relief or spot starts.  Samardzija is likely the one guy who could surprise as a fifth starter, but I’ll be honest.  I don’t see him as anything special.  Still – he throws hard and has as good a chance as anyone to have a good year facing 200 batters…  The Cubs added Carlos Silva in a trade with Seattle – ridding themselves of one headache (Milton Bradley) while acquiring organizational depth in terms of a guy to toss BP.

So, as a staff, the pitching – already good – will remain good in 2010.

Catchers:

Geovany Soto returns, with his backup Koyie Hill intact.  As a unit, they aren’t horrible – but if there is a room for improvement, it’s here.  If Soto splits the difference between his awesome 2008 numbers and his horrific 2009 numbers, the Cubs could get 20 more runs on the scoreboard.

Infield:

Derrek Lee had a quietly amazing year with the stick – 35 – 111 – .306, generating about 115 runs of offense.  On top of that, Lee also had 36 doubles…  The problems with his neck and back, however, affected his defensive range.  Usually Lee is among the top two or three defenders at his position, but in 2009 he was below average in terms of range.  Going forward, I see a 20 run slip in his offense, but he could at least return to league average defense if his back feels better.  In terms of net production, it’s a wash…

At second base, Jeff Baker arrived from Colorado and had a career half season, batting over .300 and fielding everything in site.  That made up for the poor performance of Mike Fontenot, who appears to still have the job.  I don’t think Baker can do this over 500 at bats, and neither do the Cubs who have Fontenot penciled in as the regular.  Fontenot was below average in both offense and defense – and I don’t see this improving in 2010.  If anything whatever bounce back Fontenot has will be covered by the slide in Jeff Baker’s performance.

At short, Ryan Theriot returns – a decent enough glove man and someone who batted a lot near the top of the order, though – to be fair – he’s really a GREAT number eight hitter.  Andres Blanco returns – a capable infielder.

Finally, you have Aramis Ramirez – as good a hitter as you can find if he’s playing 150 games at third base.  Last year, playing just 82 games, he was as good as expected.  Here’s what makes me nervous – Ramirez turns 32 in June – so he might get back to 140 games, but it could be at a lesser scale.  Chad Tracy is in camp to challenge Bobby Scales for a backup role – else Jeff Baker will be the other option here.  Assuming Ramirez takes up the innings given to others last year, even if Ramirez slips in production by 20 runs, the team will still be better offensively by 10 runs at this position.

As a unit, I see this team declining in offense by ten runs and declining by ten runs defensively.

Outfield:

This is where the Cubs had the biggest failures.  Alfonso Soriano led the group in homers with 20.  Kosuke Fukudome was out of position in center but sensational in right – so to make things better, he needs to stay in right.  But to bring in Marlon Byrd?

Last year, Sam Fuld got a small chance and played well defensively while getting on base at a .400 clip in just 100 at bats or so.  Fuld is NOT going to do that in a full season, but it’s taken the Cubs a long time to get Fuld to the majors after drafting him in the fifth round out of Stanford six years ago.  He’s quick, will bat about .275 to .290, and draw enough walks to be a scary leadoff hitter in front of Lee and Ramirez.  Instead, the Cubs chose to spend money on Marlon Byrd.  Byrd is about four years older, coming off a career year in Texas, and is a liability in centerfield.

If his knees are steady, Soriano could be a pleasant surprise – especially if he agrees to hit sixth and drive in runs rather than pretend to be a leadoff hitter who gets in the way of rallies.  Healthy, he hits .270 with 30 homers.  Another off season, and the Cubs will have an expensive problem for three more years.

Fukudome gets on base and surprises with power.  He’s a good #2 hitter, and his current backup, Xavier Nady – who signed an incentive laden deal on the heels of his multiple shoulder surgeries – would also make for a productive #2 hitter.

Any gains in Soriano’s health and Fukudome’s moving to right full time will be negated by the addition of Marlon Byrd.  This group will likely improve by 20 runs offensively but decline by 20 runs defensively.

Bench:

Kevin Millar will be battling for a pinch hitting role, joining Nady, Baker, Fuld, and Hill in providing one of the deeper and more productive supporting casts in baseball.

Prospects:

If the Cubs have any for 2010, there aren’t many on the 40 man roster – that’s for sure.  This is a veteran club.  On the whole, the prospects are mostly a few years away and only a couple really stand out…

Nobody stood out as a hitter in AAA Iowa (other than Blanco and Fuld), the top pitchers weren’t impressive, though reliever John Gaub had 31.1 solid innings, striking out 40, but walking 16.  Gaub had similar stats (28.2 innings, 40 Ks, 17 walks) in AA.  He’ll get a shot in 2010 – I just don’t know how many innings he’ll get.  Expect Gaub to start in Iowa, though.

Casey Coleman was 14 – 6 with a 3.68 ERA for the AA Tennessee Smokies, but struck out just 84 in 149 innings, so he’s not a long term option.  He is, however, just 21, so if he can find a strikeout pitch, he’ll be on the roster by the end of 2011.  Starlin Castro might be the next big thing, though.  A Dominican shortstop, Castro will turn 20 in spring training, but because the Cubs have options he’ll likely start the year in AA or AAA.  He wasn’t overmatched in 31 AA games last season and had hit .300 or better in rookie ball and in Daytona.  Castro would be my pick as the top prospect in the system.

Daytona had more than just Starlin Castro.  Brandon Guyer hit .347 in half a season in the Florida State League, earning a trip to Tennessee, but he struggled in AA – if he’s going to make it, he has to get it in gear quickly.  Tony Campana is a burner – 55 steals – but it would be nice if he got his OBP a bit higher.  Craig Muschko appeared to turn the corner at Daytona – 19 walks in 103 innings and an improving K rate.  And, Jay Jackson could be the other top prospect – cruising through Daytona with 46 Ks and just 4 walks, moving up to Tennessee where he went 5 – 5 with a decent K rate, and even getting a start at Iowa and winning his only appearance.  A Furman alum, Jackson will make the Cubs in 2010 if for no other reason than to get a cup of coffee in September.  I like him.

2008 #1 draft pick Andrew Cashner made it to Daytona and didn’t disappoint.  Look for him in AA Tennessee, maybe even Iowa for parts of 2010.  Ryan Flaherty, the 1A pick in 2008, will see if he can’t handle more after a 20 homer season at Peoria.  A shortstop with power would look good in Wrigley – but Flaherty is a few years away.  Others in Peoria that may stand out in 2010 will be 2008 draft picks Aaron Shafer and Christopher Carpenter, but the guy with the most stuff might be 2009 Chief Chris Archer, who blew away 119 batters in 109 innings and only allowed 78 hits – with NO homers allowed.

Josh Vitters, the first round pick in 2007, struggled at Daytona after a solid half season in Peoria.  He’ll get a second chance at A+ ball this year – but he’s just 20 and has time to get rolling.  Tyler Colvin, once a first round pick out of Clemson in 2006, got to the majors after shuffling out of the prospect picture.  At 25, he’s running out of time – and as an outfielder, the Cubs seem to like older players…

I should note that the other minor league prospect moving up through the ranks is manager Ryne Sandberg.  Perhaps you’ve heard of him.  After a year in Peoria, he moved up to Tennessee and will start 2010 as the Iowa manager.  If the Cubs get off to a slow start, he’s being groomed to replace Lou Piniella.

Outlook:

The Cubs certainly have the star power to compete, but the cracks that showed up in 2010 weren’t necessarily filled by young new help.  Instead, the Cubs have essentially the same team with one difference – Marlon Byrd instead of Milton Bradley.

I see the Cubs scoring a few more runs than last year – as many as 740, but allowing a few more, too – 700.  That works out to 85 or 86 wins (85.5, but if you carry out another decimal point, you’d round down).  With an improving Milwaukee and a still very good St. Louis, that’s probably good for third place – and at some point, the end of Lou Piniella’s tenure in Chicago.  With a slow start, he could be gone as early as June 1.

However, the guy responsible for Piniella and the rest of the roster is General Manager Jim Hendry.  With a new ownership group in town, when Lou leaves he’ll have someone to hold open the door – Hendry will likely be shown that same door.

Sheets in Bed With A’s; Tejada Returns to O’s – and other Hot Stove News

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Ben Sheets, having missed all of 2009 recovering from elbow surgery, has a new home in Oakland – signing a $10 million, one year deal.  Sheets gets to mentor a young staff while rebuilding his own street cred.  It’s a little expensive, but I like this deal.  My guess is that they’ll give him some extra time to recover between starts and he might only get about 160 innings, but those will be good innings.  Welcome Back!  [FoxSports]

Miguel Tejada returns to Baltimore – the passed physical making it official.  Tejada returns four years older than he was two years ago…  And, despite having a pretty good year at short, Tejada moves to third base where he will replace Melvin Mora.  Still a good contact hitter, Tejada’s power has regularly slid since being implicated in the steroids show.  Where once he threatened 30 homers regularly, he might hit 12 now.  Tejada’s deal?  1 year, $6 million.  [ESPN]

Jim Thome stays in the AL Central – but not with the White Sox.  The Minnesota Twins hired the DH to fill out the bench – pinch hitting and occasionally playing first base or DH as required.  The deal?  1 year, $1.5 million and incentives.  The man can still hit.  [ESPN]

Jon Garland stays in southern California, signing a one-year, $5.3 million deal with San Diego.  Garland is a dependable arm, not a world beater, but usually league average.  He MIGHT be a better fantasy choice this year because of his home park, but he might not get many wins…  I like the signing on the whole, though.  [ESPN]

Xavier Nady may wind up a platoon player with the Chicago Cubs.  Nady is coming off of shoulder injuries, but was making progress as a hitter into 2008 when the trouble struck.  [FoxSports]

Other Quick Hits from the MLB Transaction Wire…

The Dodgers signed Brad Ausmus to back up Russell Martin behind the plate.

Texas traded outfielder Greg Golson to the Yankees for minor leaguer Mitch Hilligoss.  Not a prospect in the group…

St. Louis signed pitcher Rich Hill – and if I were to bet on somebody to make a surprise step up into valued producer, it’s Rich Hill.

Happy Birthday…

Those celebrating with cake, cards, and remembrances include:  Bob Emslie (1859), Otis Clymer (1876) a middling but quick outfielder who was a minor league teammate of Rube Waddell, Milt Gaston (1896), Bob Barrett and Bibb Falk (1899), John Lowenstein (1947), Tom Trebelhorn (1948), Phil Plantier (1969), and Gavin Floyd (1983).

Mets Move Closer to Bay – But Does it Hold Water?

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The Mets made their initial splash in the free agent market by signing Jason Bay to a four year, $66 million deal – with a vesting option that would make it 5/$80…

Shall we overanalyze this?

Jason Bay is a pretty darned good player.  He can hit – hits for some power, has some patience at the plate even though he does have fits of strikeouts from time to time.  He can run a little bit, and while his reputation doesn’t support it, last year his defensive stats in left field weren’t half bad.  Boston left fielders, despite having a slightly below average number of outfield putouts relative to the AL, made 4.63 more plays than the average left fielder for every 800 balls in play – second to Seattle (about five guys, none of whom were bad defensive options – Balentien, Chavez, et al.) – so if Bay is a lousy outfielder (and he doesn’t have the range to cover center anymore) it didn’t show up in his stats last season.  For the record, Bay was above average in 2006, league average in 2007, and below average in 2008 – so my take on it is that he’s not far from league average heading into next year.

He’s 31, so Bay is starting to get long in the tooth (31) and by the end of this deal, he might not be worth $14 million a year, but you never know.

Bay will likely get a spot in the middle of the Mets lineup.  Think this through – Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Bay – or Bay, Beltran, or something like that.

Bay struggled in the middle two months of the season while in Boston last year – oddly coinciding with the time he was asked to bat cleanup because David Ortiz had lost his bat speed (among other problems).  When Bay was batting sixth in the lineup, he was REALLY good.  The Mets, however, may not resign Carlos Delgado, and with Bay averaging 30 homers a year for the last six seasons, it’s easy to imagine him as the new cleanup hitter.  Hopefully, this trend doesn’t stay with Bay – it hadn’t been a problem for him in Pittsburgh.

Given the struggles the Mets had last year were all tied to injuries – especially with the veterans – adding a 30+ outfielder wouldn’t have been high on my plans but the Mets had few other options.  Gary Sheffield and Fernando Tatis are not viable outfielders, and Fernando Martinez (who is half of Sheffield’s age) doesn’t look ready to take over – he could use a full season at AAA.  And Martinez is the closest thing to an outfielder prospect who could help immediately.  Outfield options are players like Johnny Damon (expensive, old) or Bay (expensive, not young) or Matt Holliday (expensive, prime).  The rest are question marks (Xavier Nady?) – so Bay is probably the best option the Mets had.

Now, to find a first baseman and a quality starting pitcher – the Mets, on paper and healthy, could return to being a contender in the NL East.  I don’t totally BUY it, but crazier things have happened.

Free Agents Filing at Torrid Pace…

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‘Tis the season for teams to decide on what members will remain on the 40-man roster, and which players will not get tendered offers based on existing options, and for other players to test the market.  So, for the next several days, the list of players on the MLB Free Agent list will grow and the number of players officially on the 40-man rosters will likely shrink for a little while.

The Rumor Mill…

FoxSports reports that the Cubs are considering a three-way deal to move Milton Bradley.  The Cubs would get Luis Castillo from the Mets, the Mets would get Lyle Overbay from the Toronto Blue Jays, and Toronto would get Bradley.  Other deals suggest the Rays getting involved and offering Pat Burrell for Bradley.  [FoxSports]

The Mariners are looking to keep Felix Hernandez around (which means starting the process of a long-term deal now), but understand that there are many, many suitors for the AL Cy Young candidate.  [SI]

Thanks for Playing!

Carl Crawford remains in Tampa as the Rays honored his $10 million option.  Meanwhile, Brian Shouse and Greg Zaun were both bought out and will become free agents.  [ESPN]

Boston picked up the option for catcher Victor Martinez ($7.1 million), signed Tim Wakefield to a two-year deal loaded with incentives, but declined an option on Jason Varitek.  Varitek has the option to sign for $3 million to be a backup next year, else join the free agent market.  For Wakefield, he’ll have a chance to break the team record for pitching victories (Young/Clemens have 192) and win his 200th career game.  [ESPN]

Free Agent Filings…

The most interesting story is that a Japanese fireballer, Ryota Igarashi of the Yakult Swallows, owner of a 98-mph fastball, wants to play here.  Japanese players have to wait nine seasons before they can come to the states and Igarashi is already 30 but could be a viable late inning pitcher for somebody.  [ESPN]

The Dodgers declined a $2.2 million option on reliever Will Ohman, while Mark Loretta and Juan Castro also filed.  [ESPN/MLB]

Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, Yankee World Series heroes, joined the current list of 151 free agents.  Other Yankees on the list now include Eric Hinske, Jose Molina, and Xavier Nady.  [MLB]

Houston’s Jose Valverde, as good a reliever on the market, filed for free agency yesterday.  At least five Astros players (Erstad, Tejada, Brocail) are on the list now.  [MLB]

Octavio Dotel not only filed, but learned he was a Type A free agent, which means the Sox have to offer arbitation if they hope to get compensation should someone else sign Dotel.  [MLB]

Rockies pitchers Joe Beimel and Jose Contreras filed for free agency.  If Beimel is healthy, he’s a good pickup, but I’d be surprised if Contreras gets a lot of interest from teams.  [MLB]

Cubs closer (well, former closer) Kevin Gregg filed for free agency, and – like Dotel – was graded as a Type A free agent, meaning the Cubs have to offer Gregg arbitration to get the compensation draft pick.  [MLB]

Twins infielder Orlando Cabrera joined the list of free agents, alongside Mike Redmond, Ron Mahay, Carl Pavano, and Joe Crede on the list.  [MLB]

Toronto catcher Rod Barajas is a free agent, though he noted that he’d love to stay a Blue Jay.  [MLB]

You know who has a lot of free agents?  St. Louis.  Todd Wellemeyer became the ninth player (Holliday, Ankiel, Pineiro, Smoltz, Glaus, Greene, DeRosa, LaRue) to file.  [MLB]

Gary Sheffield also filed for free agency, trying to find ANYONE who might give him a chance to play.  He’s at eight teams and counting…  [MLB]

Free Agent Discussions

Jerry Crasnick met with a number of executives and put eight questions before them.  Want to see the answers?  [ESPN]

SI’s Ted Keith identifies his list of the ten riskiest free agents.  Well, nine + Rich Harden!!!  [SI]

Old News…

Something else I missed last week…  With several infielders on the horizon (Reid Brignac, Tim Beckham) and Ben Zobrist having blasted his way into the starting lineup, the Rays had less need for Akinori Iwamura.  So, the Rays shipped Iwamura to Pittsburgh for reliever Jesse Chavez.  Chavez probably appreciates the change of scenery, joining a contender, but he’ll need to step up his game to be a contributor.  I like this move for Pittsburgh.

Happy Birthday!

His 1961 season put him on the map, and for much of the 1960s, he was a great Tiger slugger – Norm Cash would be 75 today…

Also celebrating with cards and cake (or rememberances):  Jimmy Dykes (1896), Birdie Tebbetts (1912), Gene Conley (1930), Mike Vail (1951), Larry Christenson (1953), Larry Parrish (1953), Bob Stanley (1954), Jack Clark (1955), Kenny Rogers (1964), Keith Lockhart (1964), and Shawn Green (1972)…

Afterthoughts…

For the first time in nearly 30 years, it looks like all 27 members of the U.S. Appeals court will review the “drug list” case, determining the fate of the list of 104 players who allegedly failed the 2003 anonymous steroid survey.  [MLB]

Pirates Dismantling Complete; Freddy Sanchez Dealt for Prospect Who Can Be Traded Away in 2012.

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Lessee…  The Pirates could have had a lineup of Aramis Ramirez, Jason Bay, Nate McClouth, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Doumit or Jason Kendall, Freddy Sanchez, and Jack Wilson.  Xavier Nady was a Pirate.  Jason Schmidt and Ian Snell were Pirates.  Mike Gonzalez was in the pen as a closer.

None of these guys is left.

The last, Freddy Sanchez, was given to San Francisco for Tim Alderson, a young pitcher with a world of potential…

Sanchez has some skills – gets on base, decent batting average, though not a GREAT run producer and just an average glove (at best) playing second or third.  He’ll help the Giants, but not as much as they think.

Alderson is a 20-year-old with GREAT control, strikes guys out – though that rate fell a bit at AA this year.  I like his 20 – 6 record in the minors, I like his control, and right now projects to be a member of the rotation in 2011.

Still – you look at the ten or eleven guys listed at the top of the page and you wonder why the Pirates haven’t had a winning season since Barry Bonds weighed 185 pounds.

Ugh.

News From a Friday Night in Baseball

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Chicago’s Milton Bradley threw another tantrum after flying out in the sixth inning yesterday, so manager Lou Piniella sent Bradley home.  Literally.  Bradley is at least the third player (Zambrano, Dempster) to destroy a water cooler.  The GM, Jim Hendry, who is on the hook for $30 million over three seasons after signing the short-fused Bradley, says “It’s something I promise you won’t be happening again.”

Alex Rodriguez found his power stroke after getting two days off in Florida, passing Reggie Jackson on baseball’s all time home run list.  FoxSports Bob Klapisch says that getting Alex Rodriguez rest while he heals and not abusing C.C. Sabathia is key to Girardi getting to the postseason and keeping his job. 

The New York Post reports Xavier Nady’s elbow didn’t feel right after making two throws in a rehab start Thursday night, and now is facing Tommy John surgery. The Yankee outfielder will likely miss not just the rest of 2009, but most of 2010 as well. Nady had the surgery before – in 2001. 

Royals pitcher Sidney Ponson is the second player to have tested positive for a banned substance at the World Baseball Classic.  For Ponson, he was caught with a banned stimulent tied to a weight reduction pill.  He won’t be sanctioned by the MLB, but Ponson is banned from international competition for two years. 

Toronto catcher Rod Barajas was heading to the DL with a right hamstring strain – at least that’s how it was reported last night.  Now, he’s not.  It would have meant a first trip to the bigs for Kyle Phillips, but his arrival (and Shawn Marcum’s switch from the 15 to 60 day DL) was voided. You’ll see Kyle Phillips soon enough. The one time Minnesota draft pick turned into a prospect when he hit .306 in A+ Dunedin in 2007, and followed it with a .306 average in AA New Hampshire. He’s hitting .338 in 39 games for Las Vegas in AAA. He’s got a little power, makes contact, and has shown better patience recently, but doesn’t make a fetish out of walking. His brother, Jason Phillips, donned a MLB uniform for Toronto in 2006 and 2007, as well as the Mets.

On the Mend? Blue Jay ace Roy Halliday says he’s ready for Monday’s start against Tampa.  Cardinal Kyle Lohse threw 85 pitches in a simulated game and is ready for his rehab start, and hopes to be on the MLB roster soon. 

Hurry Back! KC Reliever Kyle Farnsworth heads to the DL with a groin strain. Arizona’s Eric Byrnes heads to the DL with a broken left hand.

John Maine’s shoulder isn’t ready – so the Mets starter will skip his next rehab start. According to FoxSports, he’ll miss a week following his cortisone shot, which he received yesterday. 

Welcome Back! Astros pitcher Felipe Paulino, Tampa reliever Chad Bradford and starter Scott Kazmir. To put Kazmir on the roster, Andy Sonnestine was sent back to AAA Durham. Texas welcomes Willie Eyre, while San Diego gets back Luis Perdomo.

Other pitchers heading to AAA, for better or worse, include Arizona’s Billy Buckner, Tampa’s Winston Abreu, and Houston’s Brandon Backe. Backe was designated for assignment, which means he could be signed by another team or head to AAA.

Marlins Need a Closer; Mattingly Backs Manny

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2009 hasn’t been easy for Florida closer Matt Lindstrom.  First, he strains his rotator cuff while pitching for the US in the World Baseball Classic.  Then, he struggles in his return to the Marlins.  Now, Lindstrom has been placed on the DL with a sprained elbow.  It hasn’t affected his velocity, which regularly approaches 100 MPH, but Lindstrom says he feels it when he throws a breaking ball.  Early estimates suggest he’ll be out six weeks.

Leo Nunez, if he hadn’t tweaked an ankle in the Yankees series, would be the next in line for saves, but to be honest, it could be a bullpen by committee for now in Florida.

Dave Hyde, who is a good columnist for the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, says it’s time for the Marlins to open up the checkbook and get a closer who can help keep the Marlins in the race.

Joining the roster will be Ontario Canada’s Chris Leroux, a decent propsect who got a cup of coffee earlier in the year.  Leroux is a sleeper prospect, a seventh round pick out of Winthrop University, who has had some success at A+ Jupiter and AA Jacksonville.  I think he’s a bit overmatched at this level, though – and won’t be put in the pressure situations.

Reason #2 That the Reds are in Fourth Place

Cincinnati’s Edinson Volquez had a second MRI, which showed that inflammation hadn’t yet left his elbow.  This means that any plans the Reds had in getting Volquez on a throwing program will be halted.  Volquez went on the DL with a sore back in May, came back to throw a single inning on June first, and hasn’t pitched since then.  Without Volquez, and without Joey Votto, the Reds slid from a contending position in May to under .500 and fading as June ends.  The Reds have Votto back, and hope to have Volquez back by the end of July.

The Line Still Says “TBA”

C.C. Sabathia says his bullpen session went well and he’s looking forward to pitching on Friday as scheduled.  Meanwhile, the Yankees haven’t formally announced Sabathia as the starter.

Only a Matter of Time

Speaking of the Yankees, GM Brian Cashman flew to New York to see his struggling Yankees, only to see them struggle some more.  Then, in the sixth, Joe Girardi got fired (up) over a bad call, got tossed, and the Yankees erupted for an 8 – 4 win.  The game featured a rare at bat for Mariano Rivera, who flew out with the bases loaded to end the eighth.  Cashman says that Girardi’s job is not in jeopardy.

Yet.

Webb Reviews Options

As mentioned in yesterday’s post, Arizona ace Brandon Webb may not pitch in 2009, and now comes word that an MRI suggests that surgery is the next option for his ailing right shoulder.  Webb has tried rest and strengthening to no avail, so is looking for a second opinion before going under the knife.

When Mattingly Hurt His Back, They Removed his Backbone

Don Mattingly told Dan Patrick that he believes Manny Ramirez should still go into the Hall of Fame despite having been caught using PEDs.  Mattingly said, “He’s put up numbers for way too long.”

Of course he did, Don.  He was using.  Way to stick to the company line.

But He Still Leads the AL 3B All-Star Voting…

Evan Longoria continues to fight a sore left hamstring, leaving last night’s win over the Phillies in the seventh inning.  He doesn’t expect to miss any time, but just thought that the tightness required a little ice and rest.

What I’ll be Watching…

I don’t know about you, but I will find a way to watch John Smoltz’s return to baseball.  It’ll be odd to watch him in a Red Sox uniform, and who knows what kind of stuff he’ll have, but I always liked watching him pitch.

Cleveland Looks for Relief

Two trades yesterday, both involving the Cleveland Indians.  The Indians dealt Michael Aubrey, their top pick out of Tulsa in 2003, to Baltimore for a player to be named later.  At various times, Aubrey was a top prospect, but too many injuries later, he’s lost track of what looked like a promising career.  Aubrey makes contact, doesn’t walk too much, has a little power – just not enough to oust Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and others from the first base slot.

The Indians also acquired Jose Veras from the Yankees for cash.  Veras is at best a tolerable middle reliever, but really isn’t destined for heavy lifting even out of the Cleveland pen, which lately has had a habit of making closers look really, really bad.

Welcome back! 

Yankee 3B Cody Ransom, originally asked to replace A-Rod, but instead joined him on the DL.  (Angel Berroa was designated for assignment, and will either be back at AAA or could be signed by another team looking for a utility infielder.)  Also, Twin OF Denard Span.

Hurry back! 

A’s Josh Outman, DL with a sprained elbow.  Yankee Xavier Nady gets a rehab assignment with Scranton-Wilkes Barre.

Afterthoughts…

Kip Wells lost his job in Washington – which means unless he develops a knuckleball, his career may likely be over.  He was designated for assignment.  I wonder if someone will sign him, or if he’ll take a trip to AAA.

I saw a headline that says the Mets called up Reyes from Buffalo, and thought my fantasy roster would need a change – but it was infielder Argenis Reyes, a stop-gap utlily infielder.

Pirates Trade McLouth to Braves for Prospects (They Hope)

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Nate McLouth was probably Pittsburgh’s best player last year – well, close.  Jason Bay was better for four months but was traded to Boston.  Xavier Nady was amazing for nearly four months but was traded to New York.  Ryan Doumit generated a lot of runs, but is limited defensively (and this year is hurt).  McLouth is better than Freddy Sanchez and either Andy or Adam LaRoche.

He’s pretty good, though.  Above average power (26 homers, 46 doubles last year, on pace for more of the same in 2009); good speed (23 steals, just three caught stealing in 2008).  Patient enough at the plate, doesn’t strikeout too much, but he does fan from time to time.

Defensively, however, he’s not THAT good a centerfielder.  I have him has having below average range the last three years in center (-9.2, -4.3, -4.7 – meaning that for every 800 balls in play, McLouth makes that many fewer plays than the average centerfielder, and therefore adds that many points to the batter’s batting average).  In limited innings, he hasn’t been especially mobile in left or right, either.  So, in addition to putting about 117 runs on the board for the Pirates, he also helped put an extra 15 runs on the board for his opponents.  The net, however, is very positive.   Not every player contributes 100 runs to a team’s success.

So, with the Pirates falling to their usual fate – the bottom of the NL Central and a losing record for the umpteenth straight season – management decided to sell off their best remaining asset to the Atlanta Braves for three prospects.  Was this a good idea?

For the Braves – YES!  With Jordan Schafer being sent to AAA by the Braves yesterday to be replaced by Gregor Blanco, and dissatisfied with the production of Jeff Francouer, McLouth will still be a welcome addition to the Braves.  He’s better than anyone who played there in 2008 (Mark Kotsay, Blanco), and far better than anyone who could play there in the Braves system now.  (Blanco, who just got called up to the majors to replace Schafer, was a below average batter and fielder in center.)  And, none of their TOP prospects were involved in the trade – Hanson, Medlin, and others will still be available to Atlanta for growth or trades.

What did the Pirates get in return?

Charlie Morton was the 2nd round pick by Atlanta back in 2002, and has worked his way through the minors.  To his credit, Morton has improved in terms of his control and strikeout rate.  In 2008, he was far ahead of anything he had done in his prior years and earned a trip to the majors where he was miserable – 6.15 ERA, and walking nearly as many as he struck out.  In AAA this year, Morton has been solid for Gwinnett, even better than in 2008, but not as dominant as Tommy Hanson or even Kris Medlin.

Jeff Locke was the Braves’ 2nd round pick in 2006 out of high school.  Unlike Morton, Locke DOMINATED rookie ball, but since then seems to have taken a step back.  He was okay in 2008 at A Rome; good control, but ugly record and a lot of balls in play turned into hits.  And, in 2009 for Myrtle Beach, he looks very ordinary and not very prospect like.  Baseball America may say he’s a top ten prospect in the Braves system, but not based on this year, for sure.  He’s young and has room to grow; yet Locke is NOT going to pitch for Pittsburgh for two or three years.

The last guy might help some, and that’s Gorkys Hernandez, who is a Venezuelan burner.  Just 21 now (22 in September), Gorkys has 50 steals in him, and has hit well this year at AA Mississippi, coming to Atlanta from Detroit in the deal that sent Edgar Renteria to Detroit in 2008.  Now, while his average is higher and he’s still stealing bases, he’s not drawing walks and his strikeout rate at AA is prohibitively high (54 in just 212 at bats).  Baseball America ranked Hernandez as the fourth best prospect in the Braves system.

Still – a poor man’s Grady Sizemore (check out the comparisons – McLouth is 85% of Sizemore, and Sizemore is overrated defensively, too) for a fourth or fifth starter (at best), a struggling kid pitcher, and a Willy Taveras clone doesn’t strike me as a great deal.  Especially when none of the pitchers can help immediately (and one is going in the wrong direction) and you already have a centerfielder-in-waiting in Andrew McCutchen.  Granted, three players thicken up the talent base, but giving away one of the few hitters capable of putting 100 runs on the scoreboard each year seems like a good deal for Atlanta and a disappointing return for Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh needed to turn McLouth into a pitcher capable of winning 15 games.  That’s not going to happen anytime soon.

Look for Andrew McCutchen, hitting well and running like the wind at AAA Indianpolis, to get the call to play center.  For three years, McCutchen has been one of the two highest ranked prospects (per Baseball America) and it’s time to get him on the major league roster.   If you haven’t gotten him for your fantasy team, it’s time to think about picking him up.

Volquez Leaves Early and Everybody Strains a Groin

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That didn’t last long…  Edinson Volquez makes his return for the Reds and lasts one inning – leaving with numbness in his pinky and ring fingers of his throwing hand.  An evaluation is forthcoming.

When is nothing a news article?  When a Houston Chronicle writer blogs about the Chicago White Sox showing interest in Roy Oswalt – and then White Sox GM Ken Williams denies that rumor publicly.

The New York Yankees topped Cleveland, setting a new errorless string in the process at 18 games.  A team will make an error at a rate of about five errors every eight games – give or take.  Consider it a coin flip – so to have won that coin flip 18 straight times is pretty remarkable.  It’s also contributed to winning because unnecessary runs don’t show up on the scoreboard.

Ichiro tied his own Mariners record by hitting in his 25th straight game.  MLB.com listed the Mariners who cleared 20 games, and it’s pretty much Ichiro – a lot – with an odd Joey Cora or Richie Zisk tossed in for good measure.

The Cleveland Indians are sharing the injury bug as well as any team.  Rafael Betancourt has been placed on the DL with a strained groin (hope it’s his own), making it eight players on the DL right now.  (Victor Martinez was able to play tonight – so they got lucky there…)  Coming back is Tony Sipp.  Sipp was hurt a couple of years ago, but has those dominating strikeout numbers that makes you hope that he’ll bring the good stuff to the majors – like nearly 12Ks per nine in the minors.  He was crazy wild, though, in his first stint, so let’s hope he leaves that wildness back in Columbus (AAA).

Strained groins are the injury of choice.  The Mets placed Angel Pagan, who was called up because of injuries to every other Mets outfielder (kidding, sort of), on the 15-day disabled list with a strained groin.

I was watching the Marlins game when two Brewers outfielders left with potential injuries – Mike Cameron and Ryan Braun.  I’m guessing both are day-to-day.  By the way, as a Marlins fan, it was nice seeing Jorge Julio blow a lead for someone else this time…

On the Mend?  Houston’s Jose Valverde threw from a mound for the first time since going to the DL with a calf injury.  The fading Astros need Valverde back as soon as possible.  And, Seattle’s Kenji Johjima says his toe injury is way better than originally feared.  Ervin Santana heads to Salt Lake City for a rehab stint and the Angels are two weeks away from a healthy and solid rotation (one prays).

Anibal Sanchez is going to come off the DL and start for the Marlins on Tuesday.  His rehab start in Jupiter went well and Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez hopes to get five good innings out of him.

And, Hiroki Kuroda, who hasn’t started since opening day, came off the DL to start for Los Angeles Monday night.  His return was well timed – the guy who replaced him, Eric Stults, just went to the DL himself.  Kuroda pitched well, but his Dodgers failed to win.

Not on the Mend?  The Yankees got some bad news today – both Xavier Nady’s and Jose Molina’s rehab efforts were curtailed with those nasty twinges…  In Molina’s case, he was catching when his injured quad acted up.  For Nady, it was an elbow that balked at throwing.

Justin Duchscherer’s elbow may be ready, but we’ll never know because he’s got a bad back.

Welcome to the show, Steven Jackson – the Pirates’ choice to replace Donald Veal.  Jackson was a 10th round pick of Arizona in 2004 out of Clemson and has hung around AAA for a few years now.  He has decent control, but not a great strikeout pitch.  Sent to the Yankees in the Randy Johnson deal, he started to show progress in 2008, but didn’t get a shot.  Eventually released, the Pirates grabbed him off the waiver wire a few weeks ago and he’s been okay.  Not a prospect, but he MIGHT eat a few innings for Pittsburgh.

If you are interested in reading more about Barry Bonds and how the Feds are going to appeal decisions that would disallow various testimony in the Bonds perjury trial, click here.