Trade Analysis: Halliday, Lee, and Seven Kids Sent Packing!

It’s a couple of days later and the dust has settled on the first – maybe the biggest – blockbuster of the 2009/2010 Hot Stove season.  The Toronto Blue Jays, having peddled Roy Halliday for six months, finally moved their ace to the Phillies for three prospects – flipping one of them to the Oakland As.  The Phillies, having added Halliday and signed him to a three-year extension – and having moved seven top prospects in six months – next sent Cliff Lee to Seattle for three more prospects.

Wow.  That’s a lot of dust.

Toronto Gets:

In a period of rebuilding, Toronto adds young players to the mix.  Kyle Drabek is a former first round draft pick who finally appears to be maturing from a kid with a good pedigree (his dad, Doug, was a solid pitcher 20 years ago for the Pirates) to someone who might actually be able to pitch.  Now, a good season at A+ Clearwater and holding his own at AA Reading does not an ace make.  And, Toronto may be forced to get this guy in the rotation in 2010, but I’d like to see Drabek get a full season at AAA.  What you like is his overall minor league record – 19 – 10, good ERA, solid K/W numbers.   I’m not certain he’ll turn into Halliday, but he might turn into Jim Clancy – and that wouldn’t be all that bad.

Travis D’Arnaud is another first round pick, a catcher who appears to be a fair hitter and decent backstop.  Last year was his first really full season, and for an “A” ball guy he looks – well – okay.  At 13 – 71 – .255, D’Arnaud has room to grow but it’s early in his career.  John Buck will be around a couple of years and by then we’ll know more about where D’Arnaud’s future will be.

The third player Toronto got was Brett Wallace, a third baseman who looks like a HITTER – and with Edwin Encarnacion as the incumbant, I’d think that Wallace will get a shot as early as 2010 to show what he can do.  I think he’ll be a step up offensively, but not necessarily turn heads with his glove.  He MIGHT be someone you should take with your fantasy team because in an AL only league, he’ll be one of the top performers at his position by mid-summer.

Philadelphia Gets:

Roy Halliday has been a horse for years now; he’s better than Cliff Lee (and I like Cliff Lee) though he is a few years older.  Nobody eats up innings like this guy and in the NL, where he’ll get to face #8 and #9 hitters who can’t touch him, he’s a candidate to have a 2.00 ERA, wouldn’t you think?  At 32, Halliday is entering his prime “horse” years – and assuming it’s three (or four) years of the same, I see no reason other than an arm injury to think he won’t get 80 wins in the next four years and cement his legacy as one of the greatest pitchers of his era.  He’s very nearly the Christy Mathewson of the 2000s.

The best thing Philadelphia did was restore some youth to the prospect list having dealt seven away in the last several months.  In trading Cliff Lee – who apparently wants a really big contract after he becomes a free agent at the end of the 2010 season – the Phillies acquired three young players, two of which might be of service in the next three years.

Philippe Aumont is a tall Canadian who throws hard but is still a little raw.  He strikes out batters but occasionally gets wild and was hit around a little at AA West Tennessee (though in just 15 games).  Two years from now, he could be a decent reliever, and four years from now could be a closer for somebody.  It’s just a little early to tell.

Tyson Gillies has surprising power, a lot of speed, and is similar to Michael Taylor a couple of years ago (with a touch less power and a touch more speed).  You have to like a guy who hits for a decent average and draws walks.  In three years, he could become a centerfielder/lead off hitter somewhere.  Look for him to replace Shane Victorino in 2013.

Juan Ramirez is a toolsy Nicaraguan kid who, at this point, is very raw and can be seen as “organizational depth” until he breaks out in AA or something.

Seattle Gets:

Having landed Chone Figgins and now Cliff Lee, Seattle has BUZZ.  They might only get Lee for one year, but with Lee and King Felix at the top of the rotation, you have to like how this sets up for 2010.  While I like Aumont and Gillies could be fun in a couple of years, Seattle looks like it’s gearing up for a run at the 2010 AL West crown and sell a lot of tickets this year.  They still need punch in the middle of the lineup, but you’ll be reading about the Mariners as a contender in every magazine.

Now, let’s cut to the chase.  Before we anoint Seattle as the team to watch in 2010, remember that they were actually outscored by their opponents by more than 50 runs last year.  They still could use an outfielder who can hit, and Russell Branyan broke out but one could fear that, at his age, he might not repeat.  There are a LOT of holes in the lineup.  I don’t think, at least at this point, that Seattle is a candidate to win more than 80 games.

Still – getting Lee is COOL for the franchise.  The Mariners SOUND like a team, and READ like a team that’s going to be serious and a contender.  Let the games begin.

Oakland Gets:

Michael Taylor, who has more or less averaged a 20 – 20 season while batting .312 since being drafted by the Phillies out of Stanford in 2007.   His power is going to develop, he’s already got a little patience at the plate – he could turn into Bobby Abreu without the really high walk totals.  Oakland needs him – he’s an upgrade over Rajai Davis or Ryan Sweeney in the outfield.  Having added Jake Fox from Chicago, Brett Wallace was reasonably expendable so this was a good flip of prospects for the A’s.

Look – Oakland’s record wasn’t that great, but the young pitchers looked decent and the A’s actually scored nearly as many runs as they allowed in 2009 – which means with a little luck and a step off offensively, Oakland becomes a contender for the AL West crown.  Don’t be too surprised if this happens.

And the Winner is?

I like what Philadelphia did, and I like what Oakland did.  The jury is out on Toronto and I think Seattle’s buzz will end quickly if they open the season 10 – 15.

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Halliday, Lee in Three Team Trade; Lackey to Bosox

Wow – the potential for a HUGE deal…  All baseball sources are reporting on a potential deal that would send Toronto ace Roy Halliday to the Phillies for prospects, while Cliff Lee would go from Philadelphia to the Seattle Mariners for a couple of prospects – one of which might go to Toronto as well.

In listening to the experts, the talk is that Cliff Lee wants a big deal after the 2010 season when he becomes a free agent – possibly Sabathia money – and the Phillies didn’t want to do that.  Meanwhile, Halliday has expressed an interest in playing in Philadelphia and would accept a “below market” deal (how is a $60 million, three-year extension really below market?) to go there.  Among the names included in the trade are outfielder Michael Taylor, pitcher Kyle Drabek, and catcher Travis D’Arnaud.  These three would head from Philadelphia to Toronto, while the Phillies would receive Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies from Seattle.  In this way, the Phillies still keep young talent while maintaining a top of the rotation anchor.  The Mariners get a two-headed monster at the top of the rotation for 2010 (King Felix and Cliff Lee – wow), and Toronto does a service for its star while loading up on young talent and building for 2012, I guess.

Well that’s a lot of stuff to review.  Once the deal is final, we’ll get you a complete run down of the players involved, some info on the prospects, and all that stuff.  Should be a gas!!!

Not the Only Big Deal…

Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox appear to have agreed to terms with pitcher John Lackey – five years and $85 million – pending a physical.  Lackey has been nicked up the last couple of years but appears to be healthy and was a horse for the Angels down the stretch.  He didn’t miss a start for the first six years of his career, which includes 102 wins and a 3.81 career ERA.  (Retrosheet shows that Lackey hasn’t necessarily been real successful in Boston, with a 5.75 ERA and a 2 – 5 record in Fenway, but he’s facing a really good Red Sox team, so it’s all relative.)  You have to like the top end of the Red Sox rotation with Lester, Lackey, and Beckett.  That’s 600 strikeouts if they all make 33 starts.  [SI]

The Sox weren’t done, working through a possible two-year $15 million deal with outfielder Mike Cameron.  I guess Jason Bay isn’t coming back.  Cameron isn’t an awful outfielder, and he’ll occasionally hit one out or take a walk – but we’re talking about a .250 hitting 37 year old guy now who has a lot of mileage on the tires…  It’s a step down in production from Manny to Bay to Cameron.  [SI]

The Angels did make their own move, coming to terms with Hideki Matsui on a one-year, $6 million deal.  Matsui was pretty solid as a DH in New York last year, but I don’t see how this is going to be THAT great a deal for the Angels.  They already have a DH outfielder in Vlad Guerrero and another DH outfielder in Bobby Abreu – and all three are limited in range, up there in years, and not guaranteed to play 120 games.  I guess between the three they have about two full time players.  They certainly have one of the older outfields in baseball.  [SI]

God bless old outfielders.  I’m one.

Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban teen with the triple digit fastball, has a $15 million offer from the Red Sox, according to sources.  We’ll see what comes out of a workout in Houston this week…  [ESPN]

Among the dozen teams angling for Pirates free agent closer Matt Capps?  The Cubs.  But, with so many teams showing interest, Capps and his agent are biding their time.  [ESPN]

Houston signed fourth outfielder Jason Michaels to a one-year, $800K deal.  Seems cheap…  Former Toronto pitcher Gustavo Chacin signed a minor league deal with the Astros…  [SI]

The Rockies signed Chris Iannetta to a multi-year deal to stay and catch in Colorado.  Ianetta gets three years and $8.3 million, with a club option for 2013.  [SI]

Could Colby Lewis be joining a team near you?  The one time Texas prospect has been pitching – and pitching well – in Japan for the Hiroshima Carp.  However, he’s ready to come home and be closer to his family.  [MLB]

Could Chien-Ming Wang become a Met?  I’d give him a minor league deal first, but you never know…  [MLB]

My favorite AAA+ pitcher, R.J. Swindle, signed a minor league deal with Tampa.

The Team Voted Most Likely to Party…

David Freese was arrested under the suspicion of a DUI – the fourth member of the Cardinals in this situation since spring training, 2007.  Freese is a third baseman and a pretty good prospect…  I guess if your chief sponsor is Anheuser-Busch, this is going to happen.  [SI]

Happy Birthday!

Remember the Hit Dog?  Mo Vaughn, once a feared hitter, turns 42 today.

Others celebrating with cake, cards, or remembrances include:  Jay “Nig” Clarke (1882), Eddie Robinson (1920), Haywood Sullivan (1930), Jim Leyland (1944), Stan Bahnsen (1944), Art Howe (1946), Doug Rau (1948), Mike Proly (1950), Rick Helling (1970) – the Texas union rep when nearly everyone on the Rangers was using steroids, Aaron Miles (1976), and Michael Wuertz (1978).

Afterthoughts…

Ron Santo got a three-year deal to stay on as the radio color commentator for the Chicago Cubs.  I don’t know if you listen to WGN, but he’s certainly a fan of the Cubs and has a good sense of humor.  As for his insight – well, he’s a fan of the Cubs.  I love Sanot, though.  The deal gives him a bit more freedom to deal with his health – as a diabetic, Santo has had both legs amputated and is working through issues with his new legs.  [MLB]