2010 Season Forecast: St. Louis Cardinals

Last Five Years:

2009:  91 – 71 (1st NL Central)
2008:  86 – 76
2007:  78 – 84
2006:  83 – 78
2005: 100 – 62

Runs Scored: 730
Runs Allowed: 640

Season Recap:

With two aces and the world’s greatest offensive force, the Cardinals held their own throughout the 2009 season.  And just when it looked like someone might catch them, the Cards added Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and John Smoltz to bury the rest of the division.

The Cardinals got off to a hot start, winning 17 of the first 24 games.  However, like the Cubs, a couple of ill-timed losing streaks returned the team back to the pack and in fact St. Louis trailed Milwaukee for parts of June.  In fact, all three teams played indifferently for much of the summer until the front office got involved.

Adding Holliday to the offense and giving a few starts to someone other than Todd Wellemeyer helped get a winning stretch going.  From July 27th through the end of the year, the Cardinals played great – going 38 – 23 before losing in the playoffs.

Injuries claimed Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel at times, and LaRussa had to work around a defense that wasn’t functional at many positions.  Skip Schumaker was an outfielder impersonating a second baseman – badly.  He was replaced by Julio Lugo near the end of the season, and the ball wasn’t hit close enough to him either – not that Lugo had been a regular second baseman recently.  Chris Duncan is a poor outfielder – replaced by Matt Holliday who actually played even worse.  Ryan Ludwick played at a below average pace in right and the ball wasn’t hit to his occasional replacements (Ankiel, Nick Stavinoha) either.

Despite this, the pitchers allowed the third fewest runs in the NL – which shows you how good Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter were.  And they were simply amazing.  Put this staff in front of the middle 80’s team that featured Ozzie and Willie McGee and company, and they might have allowed only 500 runs all year.

Starting Pitching:

Adam Wainwright pitched 233 innings, fanned 212, and had a 3:1 K/W ratio.  He saved his team some 43 runs over using a league average starter.  Chris Carpenter was even better.  Returning from elbow surgery, Carpenter nearly tossed 200 innings in just 28 starts, winning 17 and finishing with an ERA of just 2.24.  He saved his squad 48 runs.  The third starter, Joel Pineiro won 15 himself, hardly walking anyone and keeping batted balls on the ground all season.

With 51 wins in the top three spots, the Cardinals countered with Todd Wellemeyer and Kyle Lohse at the bottom of the rotation; two who were below average pitchers.  Wellemeyer was so bad, he cancelled out half an ace with his 5.89 ERA.

Three starters are back, starting with the aces and adding Kyle Lohse.  Pineiro is gone, replaced by Brad Penny – and my take on it that Penny should be close to as good as Pineiro was.  They have comparable strikeout rates, and if Penny keeps the ball over the plate, should fare well here.  Wellemeyer is also history, but it’s hard to tell who might get that fifth slot.  It could be Mitchell Boggs, who got nine starts and while his ERA was tolerable (4.19), he sure got lucky.  Boggs allowed 71 hits in 58 innings and walked 33 more.  Some time back, I suggested that you could figure how lucky a pitcher was by comparing his actual runs allowed data against his “reverse runs created” data.  Essentially, I was treating his pitching stats like I would an offensive player.  Given the combination of hits and walks that Boggs allowed, he would expect to have allowed 40 runs, not 28, and his ERA would have been about 6.05.

I digress.  The fifth starter could also be non-roster invitee Rich Hill, who is just the type of pitcher that seems to get his career healed by the coaching of Dave Duncan.  Look for Hill to make the roster and possibly make the rotation.

The bullpen returns virtually intact – Ryan Franklin was about the best closer in the National League, but he’s NOT a power guy and I don’t believe that he’s going to be as successful in 2010.  Trever Miller had a great season, but he only pitched 43.2 innings in his 70 games, which means that LaRussa spotted him well.  He and Dennys Reyes will be the designated lefties, while Kyle McClellan, Brad Thompson, and Jason Motte pick up the other innings.  Rookie Jess Todd might be a nice set up man for part of the season.

My view of this is that the pitching can’t possibly be this good next year.  Not that Wainwright and Carpenter won’t be good – they could be 25 runs better than the average pitchers, which is very good, but that would be 40 runs off from last year’s production.  Ryan Franklin could be good, but lose five runs from a peak season last year.  Not having to pitch Todd Wellemeyer will help some, however I’d be nervous about the current options.  I see the pitching being off by about 50 runs.

Catching:

Yadier Molina remains the best defensive catcher in baseball and seems to be adding some offensive tools.  His backup is Jason LaRue – who will get to catch four times a month.

Infield:

Albert Pujols is the best offensive player in the game, and the best defensive player at his position.  His quickness means that he plays farther off the bag than most people – which gives him a serious range advantage over just about anybody.

After a year of Skip Schumaker, who stays to provide depth, the Cardinals will be using Felipe Lopez at second base.  This is an immediate 20 run upgrade defensively, and if Lopez continues to hit, a match to the production Schumaker provided (80 runs created, and 5.7 runs per 27 outs – which is solid).

Brendan Ryan was a stopper defensively, but starts the season coming back from wrist surgery.  I’m not sure he’ll be able to replicate last year’s production defensively and it’s hard to come back and hit right away after a hand or wrist injury.  His backup will be Julio Lugo or Tyler Greene.

At third, Mark DeRosa is gone and the Joe Thurston experiment is over.  David Freese will get the job.  Freese is a prospect, albeit a rather old prospect.  You may remember that Freese was acquired from San Diego for Jim Edmonds.  Well, Freese has been solid in the minors – hitting .306 with 26 homers in Memphis in 2008, and then batting .300 with 10 homers in just 200 at bats last season at AAA.  The Ballwin, MO native can hit at this level – he’ll be 27 in April.  I think he’ll hit like Todd Zeile – 18 homers, .270 batting average.  If he can field at all, he’ll be an upgrade over what the Cards got last year.

Pujols season was better than what he had done the previous couple of years, he could lose twenty runs of offense and STILL be the best hitter in the game.  With the wrist injury, Brendan Ryan will be off, but that will be made up by the play of Freese.  The net result, however, is probably 20 runs fewer offensively and probably ten runs off defensively.

Outfield:

This is going to be a very productive offense featuring Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, and Ryan Ludwick.  Ludwick, if healthy, holds his own.  A full season of Holliday will be better than half a season of Chris Duncan.  And Colby Rasmus will hit better than what Rick Ankiel did last year.  Defensively, Rasmus should hold steady, Holliday will be a slight improvement over Duncan, and Ankiel won’t be better.

Backups include Skip Schumaker, Nick Stavinoha and maybe a rookie – Joe MatherShane Robinson?  It could be Allen Craig, who had a solid year at Memphis last year (see Prospects).

This team will score produce about 30 runs more than last year and hold steady defensively.

Bench:

Not a bad bunch, but some holes…  Skip Schumaker will get a lot of innings, Julio Lugo returns, as does Tyler Greene, and then you have Nick Stavinoha, and Jason LaRue.  Which of these guys, other than Schumaker, would you want as a pinch hitter?  It’s a bit weak.

Prospects:

AAA Memphis had a couple of guys who might be interesting.  David Freese will get a shot at the third base job after a year and a half of solid play with the Redbirds.  Allen Craig hit .322 with 26 homers, but he’s not really patient at the plate.  He’s a potential fourth outfielder with the Cardinals though, and could be Ryan Ludwick’s equal in right field.  (.280 – 20 homers)

Jess Todd was the closer in Memphis and was solid – 59 Ks, 13 walks, 24 saves to match his 2.20 ERA.  He’ll be on the Cardinals in 2010.  The best starter was likely P.J. Walters, who was tolerable – decent control, a good strikeout record, but a bit hittable.

The best pitchers at Springfield (AA) weren’t dominating, but had good records and avoided the long ball.  Trey Hearne and Lance Lynn combined for 23 wins and only 7 losses and have interchangeable stats.  Lynn was a 1A draft pick in 2008, so he’s moving up quickly and the Cardinals have high hopes for him.  Infielder Daniel Descalso hit well (.323, .396 OBP) at Springfield but hasn’t been consistent at that level in the minors.

Former first round picks, like Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Carpenter are gone.  Peter Kozma was a top pick in 2007 and struggled to hit .216 in AA – he’s going to run out of chances soon.  Another, 2007 pick David Kopp struggled to a 6.43 ERA at Springfield – he might get one more shot before being cast away.  Much of the 2006 draft is still around and getting close – Adam Ottavino, Chris Perez, Jon Jay, Shane Robinson, and Allen Craig are in Memphis but haven’t made it in (or to) the bigs yet.

There are a couple of players in the minors, but as a whole, the Cardinal organization is a little thin right now.

Outlook:

Having gone through the process, I think the Cardinals will be in the mix but might not easily repeat.  I think they’ll score about 740 runs, but allow more than last year – as many as 690 runs.  If that’s the combination, it works out to 87 wins.  With Milwaukee likely getting better and the Cubs in the mix, the NL Central could easily have the most exciting September in baseball.  The Cards MIGHT win the division, and they MIGHT get the wild card.  Or, they MIGHT fall a game or two short.  It’s too close to call.

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NL’s Best and Worst Pitchers in 2009 – Hot Stove News…

Quick news hits first before we take a quick look back at pitchers in 2009…

Tim Lincecum asked for $13 million when filing for arbitration – if he wins, it would be the highest amount paid to an arbitration eligible pitcher.  Of course, Lincecum is a bit of a party animal off the field, but between the lines he’s one of the five best pitchers in the National League.  He’s certainly one of the most valuable commodities – a pretty durable arm (so far) who gets a lot of batters out and wins games.  [ESPN/SI]

There’s a rather long list of players and teams avoiding arbitration or signing deals – you can get the list on SI or MLB – but the ones that caught my attention were (a) Jonathon Papelbon getting $9.35 million from Boston – about two million more than the going rate and (b) Bengie Molina likely returning to the Giants.  The Mets pursued Molina but apparently not hard enough, and are now stuck with playing backup catchers every day for another year (unless you consider Omir Santos a budding starter).  [FoxSports/ESPN]

FUN WITH DATA!

Having purchased my copy of the Lahman database, which is invaluable for doing quick queries so that I can plug data into my spreadsheets very easily, I can finally start doing the type of statistical analysis that I like…  I’ve already assembled the NL data and will be doing the AL data later this week.  And, after having knocked out the NL sheets, we get to have some fun with the lists it generates.  Today, we’ll start with the pitchers.

Top NL Starting Pitchers

The first rating system I have looks at how many runs a pitcher cost or saved his team over the course of the year above or below what the average pitcher allowed.  ERA is a pretty simple way to note this, mind you.  Someone with an ERA of 2.00 is two runs per nine innings better than someone with an ERA of 4.00.  However, it’s easier to have a low ERA when you pitch in San Diego, so I modify the runs allowed (not earned runs, but runs allowed) by removing the park effect.  Then, I also try to isolate the advantage a pitcher has in being on a team with a good defense vs. one with a bad defense.  For example, a pitcher on the Giants gets help from having a very solid defense – Randy Winn and Fred Lewis in the outfield are plus defenders at their position, the infielders were rather good as well.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals staff had behind them an injured Rick Ankiel or Chris Duncan or Ryan Ludwick in the outfield not catching as many flies as most teams and were playing an injured (and less mobile) Mark DeRosa at third and, perhaps more importantly, an outfielder at second base all year in Skip Schumaker.  Once I figure out how many runs the seven guys in the field affected the team’s ability to prevent runs, you can make a second modification to a pitcher’s runs allowed numbers and compare it with the league average.

The league average pitcher allowed about 4.53 runs per nine innings.  The total number of runs saved is not just dependent on runs allowed per nine, but the number of innings pitched.  The best pitchers in saving runs will usually be starters.  Sometimes, a reliever can sneak in there, but not very often.  Let’s get to the list.

Best Starters:

In terms of runs saved, the best starting pitchers in the National League were…

48.57 – Chris Carpenter (STL)
43.19 – Adam Wainwright (STL)
40.25 – Danny Haren (ARZ)
38.80 – Tim Lincecum (SF)
38.30 – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)
38.16 – Jair Jurrjens (ATL)
36.39 – Javier Vasquez (ATL)
33.68 – Josh Johnson (FLA)
30.62 – Matt Cain (SF)
28.51 – Wandy Rodriguez (HOU)
28.09 – J.A. Happ (PHI)
26.14 – Ted Lilly (CHC)
23.33 – Jason Marquis (COL)
22.81 – Tommy Hanson (ATL)
21.32 – Clayton Kershaw (LA)

No other starters saved at least 20 runs more than an average pitcher would have allowed given the number of innings pitched by that player.  The top two guys were Cardinals – two pitchers who were wonderful despite having several players not necessarily having good years with the glove.  Those pitchers DO benefit from having the best catching in baseball (Yadier Molina) – but Carpenter’s 48+ runs saved over the average pitcher might be the largest number I have seen in the five years I have done this.  Based on this criteria, Carpenter deserved his Cy Young consideration.  Among the surprises on this list was Clayton Kershaw who couldn’t get any support from his team but really did pitch very, very well and I think could be a sleeper ace for 2010.  And, seeing how well Jason Marquis pitched for the first four months of the season, one assumes that Colorado will miss that kind of production.

Top Relievers:

18.13 – Kiko Calero (FLA)
17.86 – Ryan Franklin (STL)
16.29 – LaTroy Hawkins (HOU)
16.23 – Jeremy Affeldt (SF)
15.49 – Trevor Hoffman (MIL)
13.89 – Nick Massett (CIN)
13.42 – Rafael Soriano (ATL)
12.98 – Huston Street (COL)
12.57 – Jose Valverde (HOU)
12.36 – Todd Coffey (MIL)
12.15 – Tyler Clippard (WAS)

As has been the case for many years, the top relievers are frequently NOT closers but middle relievers who have really good seasons in less demanding roles.  Kiko Calero, who has never had a season anywhere NEAR what he did in 2009 is the surprise winner here.  That being said, the top closer was Ryan Franklin, followed closely by Trevor Hoffman.  More than any other list, this group will change a lot from year to year.  Any number close to 10 is a great year for a reliever.

Worst NL Pitchers…

-44.28 – Manny Parra (MIL)
-33.36 – Josh Geer (SD)
-32.70 – Braden Looper (MIL)
-31.70 – David Bush (MIL)
-31.25 – Jeff Suppan (MIL)
-27.36 – Chad Gaudin (SD)
-25.35 – Todd Wellemeyer (STL)
-22.83 – Micah Owings (CIN)
-21.95 – Felipe Paulino (HOU)
-21.90 – Brad Lidge (PHI)
-20.53 – Brian Moehler (HOU)
-20.20 – Walter Silva (SD)

-21.31 – Kevin Hart (PIT) – but positive 6.30 in CHC

These are the starters for teams who felt like they had no other option than to give 150 innings to someone with a 5+ ERA.  Or, in the case of Brad Lidge, a manager who kept feeding his closer the ball despite the fact that he was getting hammered all too often.  Rarely does a reliever make this list.

One thing that is immediately noticeable is the fact that four of the five worst pitchers in terms of their relation to the average pitcher were Brewers.  Look – they aren’t the worst pitchers.  There were guys with 8+ ERAs who got just 20 innings and were sent packing to AAA, too.  Or were hurt or something.  But the Brewers were hanging in there with four guys who are no better than long relievers.  Three of them had seen better days (Looper, Suppan, Bush), but wow.  One sees immediately where the Brewers should spend their money.  Go find three guys who can pitch.  If that means giving Ben Sheets a deal, do it.  Finding three guys who can give you a 4.20 ERA in 180 innings would move the Brewers up 10 games in the standings.  Is it that hard to find three of those guys?  I can’t wait to do my team overview for the Brewers…

Free Agents Filing at Torrid Pace…

‘Tis the season for teams to decide on what members will remain on the 40-man roster, and which players will not get tendered offers based on existing options, and for other players to test the market.  So, for the next several days, the list of players on the MLB Free Agent list will grow and the number of players officially on the 40-man rosters will likely shrink for a little while.

The Rumor Mill

FoxSports reports that the Cubs are considering a three-way deal to move Milton Bradley.  The Cubs would get Luis Castillo from the Mets, the Mets would get Lyle Overbay from the Toronto Blue Jays, and Toronto would get Bradley.  Other deals suggest the Rays getting involved and offering Pat Burrell for Bradley.  [FoxSports]

The Mariners are looking to keep Felix Hernandez around (which means starting the process of a long-term deal now), but understand that there are many, many suitors for the AL Cy Young candidate.  [SI]

Thanks for Playing!

Carl Crawford remains in Tampa as the Rays honored his $10 million option.  Meanwhile, Brian Shouse and Greg Zaun were both bought out and will become free agents.  [ESPN]

Boston picked up the option for catcher Victor Martinez ($7.1 million), signed Tim Wakefield to a two-year deal loaded with incentives, but declined an option on Jason Varitek.  Varitek has the option to sign for $3 million to be a backup next year, else join the free agent market.  For Wakefield, he’ll have a chance to break the team record for pitching victories (Young/Clemens have 192) and win his 200th career game.  [ESPN]

Free Agent Filings…

The most interesting story is that a Japanese fireballer, Ryota Igarashi of the Yakult Swallows, owner of a 98-mph fastball, wants to play here.  Japanese players have to wait nine seasons before they can come to the states and Igarashi is already 30 but could be a viable late inning pitcher for somebody.  [ESPN]

The Dodgers declined a $2.2 million option on reliever Will Ohman, while Mark Loretta and Juan Castro also filed.  [ESPN/MLB]

Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, Yankee World Series heroes, joined the current list of 151 free agents.  Other Yankees on the list now include Eric Hinske, Jose Molina, and Xavier Nady.  [MLB]

Houston’s Jose Valverde, as good a reliever on the market, filed for free agency yesterday.  At least five Astros players (Erstad, Tejada, Brocail) are on the list now.  [MLB]

Octavio Dotel not only filed, but learned he was a Type A free agent, which means the Sox have to offer arbitation if they hope to get compensation should someone else sign Dotel.  [MLB]

Rockies pitchers Joe Beimel and Jose Contreras filed for free agency.  If Beimel is healthy, he’s a good pickup, but I’d be surprised if Contreras gets a lot of interest from teams.  [MLB]

Cubs closer (well, former closer) Kevin Gregg filed for free agency, and – like Dotel – was graded as a Type A free agent, meaning the Cubs have to offer Gregg arbitration to get the compensation draft pick.  [MLB]

Twins infielder Orlando Cabrera joined the list of free agents, alongside Mike Redmond, Ron Mahay, Carl Pavano, and Joe Crede on the list.  [MLB]

Toronto catcher Rod Barajas is a free agent, though he noted that he’d love to stay a Blue Jay.  [MLB]

You know who has a lot of free agents?  St. Louis.  Todd Wellemeyer became the ninth player (Holliday, Ankiel, Pineiro, Smoltz, Glaus, Greene, DeRosa, LaRue) to file.  [MLB]

Gary Sheffield also filed for free agency, trying to find ANYONE who might give him a chance to play.  He’s at eight teams and counting…  [MLB]

Free Agent Discussions

Jerry Crasnick met with a number of executives and put eight questions before them.  Want to see the answers?  [ESPN]

SI’s Ted Keith identifies his list of the ten riskiest free agents.  Well, nine + Rich Harden!!!  [SI]

Old News…

Something else I missed last week…  With several infielders on the horizon (Reid Brignac, Tim Beckham) and Ben Zobrist having blasted his way into the starting lineup, the Rays had less need for Akinori Iwamura.  So, the Rays shipped Iwamura to Pittsburgh for reliever Jesse Chavez.  Chavez probably appreciates the change of scenery, joining a contender, but he’ll need to step up his game to be a contributor.  I like this move for Pittsburgh.

Happy Birthday!

His 1961 season put him on the map, and for much of the 1960s, he was a great Tiger slugger – Norm Cash would be 75 today…

Also celebrating with cards and cake (or rememberances):  Jimmy Dykes (1896), Birdie Tebbetts (1912), Gene Conley (1930), Mike Vail (1951), Larry Christenson (1953), Larry Parrish (1953), Bob Stanley (1954), Jack Clark (1955), Kenny Rogers (1964), Keith Lockhart (1964), and Shawn Green (1972)…

Afterthoughts…

For the first time in nearly 30 years, it looks like all 27 members of the U.S. Appeals court will review the “drug list” case, determining the fate of the list of 104 players who allegedly failed the 2003 anonymous steroid survey.  [MLB]

Harwell Has Cancer; And Other News (but not nearly as important…)

Legendary Hall of Fame broadcaster for the Detroit Tigers, Ernie Harwell announced today that he has incurable cancer of the bile duct.  Doctors told him that surgery wasn’t really an option, and so Harwell’s days are likely numbered (well – all of are, he just has a better idea of his).  I listed to Harwell on a transistor radio at nights as a kid, and while his impact on my baseball life wasn’t that of Jack Brickhouse, he was one of my favorites.  Harwell spent 42 years at the mic for Detroit, and was Brooklyn’s replacement for an ill Red Barber.  [FoxSports]

In other Tigers news, Jarrod Washburn will miss a start to rest his ailing knee…  [FoxSports]

A move I will always support, Boston closer Jonathon Papelbon was fined $5000 for slow pitching.  Now, if they would only fine batters for the same thing…  [FoxSports]

Mets 3B David Wright is back to his old helmet, days after trying the newer Rawlings helmet, which is rated to 100 MPH, but is bulkier and 50% heavier than the standard model.  [FanNation/SI]

Rays centerfielder B.J. Upton rolled his ankle when he collided with Carl Crawford chasing a fly ball last night.  He’s day-to-day.  [MLB]

Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton has a pinched nerve in his lower back and will miss a couple of games, but he’s listed as day-to-day.  [MLB]

Trade News… Texas acquired pitching prospect Danny Gutierrez from the Royals for two minor leaguers: Tim Smith and Manual Pina.  Gutierrez has been reasonably successful, getting better every year with good control and decent strikeout numbers.  He missed part of 2009 resting a tender shoulder – which would be problematic over time.  Tim Smith is an outfielder with good speed, understands the strike zone, and has shown a little power.  Manuel Pina is a catcher – kind of a slap hitter who makes contact, but doesn’t necessarily have patience (Miguel Olivo with less power).  But if you read the news article, this seems like a very Royals type trade.  Get rid of a decent minor league pitcher for two injured players…

Welcome Back! The Marlins activated Nick Johnson off the DL (hamstring), and St. Louis pitcher Todd Wellemeyer returns from the DL…

Race Watch! At least the NL Wild Card race is interesting; the division races are about over.  With Boston taking two from Tampa, the best AL race might be the tightening AL West race…

News and Notes Before Pedro’s Start vs. Cubs Tonight; Is it Over for Percival and Gordon?

The Reds got some good news and bad news…  Good news?  Starter Johnny Cueto’s hip is fine – and now he says it must have been a cramp.  (His pitching is cramping the Reds right now…)  Bad news?  Scott Rolen is going on the DL to deal with concussion symptoms following his getting hit by a Jason Marquis pitch a couple of weekends ago.  [ESPN]

Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez will miss at least two more games resting his sore left shoulder after receiving a cortisone shot to help deal with the pain.  Where is Bill Madlock when they need him???  [FoxSports]

Miguel Cabrera is day to day after getting hit in the hand by a pitch last night.  When Rick Porcello retalliated and hit Kevin Youkilis, there was a brawl (sort of) between the Tigers and Red Sox.

Pedro Martinez gets the start tonight against the Cubs, but the guy who lost his job – Jamie Moyer – isn’t happy about it.  Moyer says he’s going to be a team player and all, but if that’s the case why is he discussing his being “misled by management” with the press?  [FoxSports]

Texas infielder Ian Kinsler heads to AA for a couple of rehab games – should be back soon.  [ESPN]

Todd Wellemeyer, mentioned earlier this week, heads to the DL to rest and heal an elbow with excessive inflammation.  [SI]

Scott Schoeneweis heads to the DL to battle depression, just three months after his wife was found dead in their Arizona home.  His stats show the signs of someone whose heart is somewhere else – completely understandable.  The D-Backs are trying to be as supportive as possible…  [ESPN]

Colorado centerfielder Dexter Fowler crashed into the wall chasing (and catching) a Geovany Soto flyball against Chicago the other night – and now is headed for a precautionary MRI to check out a sore knee.  His offense isn’t changing the world, but Fowler’s range in center has helped keep Rockie pitchers happy…  [SI]

Troy Percival’s shoulder hasn’t allowed him to throw a couple of days in a row – and he’s resigned himself to retirement.  The Rays closer admitted he may not have but one bullpen session left in him at this point.  [ESPN]

Speaking of former Angels relievers, Justin Speier is now a former reliever having been released yesterday.  In his last outing four days ago, Speier gave up three homers in an inning to Texas.  [FoxSports]

Hurry Back!  Twins pitcher Glen Perkins heads to the DL with shoulder discomfort.  Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick heads to AAA with Pedro joining the roster…

Welcome Back!  Braves infielder Omar Infante returns from the DL, as does Reds outfielder Chris Dickerson.

Is it Over?  Arizona released Tom Gordon – the last active player to have played with Royals legend Frank White.  Several weeks ago, I figured out that you could get from Tom Gordon to Rube Waddell in six degrees…  Props to anyone who can figure out how I got there.

Rios Waived by Blue Jays – Let White Sox Pick Up Tab; More Cub Injury Woes…

I’m not sure I buy this, but okay.  The Toronto Blue Jays were disappointed by Alex Rios’ production on the heels of a huge contract signing in 2008 – and placed him on waivers.  The White Sox put in a claim…  So, the Blue Jays could either (a) recall Rios and make a trade offer or just keep him, or (b) let the White Sox keep him and absorb his salary.  The Jays chose (b).  Sure it’s a cash savings, but do they really have a replacement for him?  Rios was the best centerfielder on the team – but they insisted on playing the older (and slower, and more injury prone) Vernon Wells out there.  And, the Jays get NOTHING.  No prospects, no short term help.  A year ago, this team should have been in the playoffs.  Now, Roy Halliday was placed on the trading block, A.J. Burnett left as a free agent, B.J. Ryan wasn’t allowed to work through his issues, and Alex Rios is gone.

For the White Sox, who haven’t really had a solid centerfielder all season, they get an immediate upgrade defensively and offensively (albeit for about $60 million over the next six seasons) and if Rios puts it together, they could have an impact player between elder statesman Jermaine Dye and the injured but exciting Carlos Quentin.  And all they had to do was claim a guy off of waivers?

Should I be worried that this is just a precedent and other teams wishing to dump salary will no longer trade for prospects but just drop the player and keep the cash?   Look out Texas, San Diego, and others.  If you don’t win, your players may not get traded – they may just get dumped.

Two Cubs horses are making doctor visits…  Carlos Zambrano had an epidural treatment to relieve pain in his back – sources saying its the third time (at least) that this has happened this season.  And now comes word that Aramis Ramirez’s left shoulder is ailing again and needs a doctor visit – the same shoulder he separated diving for a liner earlier in the season causing him to miss two months of the season.  [MLB/ESPN]

And it doesn’t get any better.  The same night the Cubs were clocked by the Rockies (and Troy Tulowitski’s seven RBI, five hit – cycle even – game last night), starter Tom Gorzelanny was hit by a grounder in the second inning and had to leave the game.  He should make his (well, Zambrano’s) next start.  [MLB]

Two years ago, he was the toast of the 2007 rookie crop.  Last year, he signed a five year extension.  In 2009, with a batting average hovering around .180 with little power and no confidence, Diamondback centerfielder Chris Young heads to AAA to find his swagger.  Gerrardo Parra will likely get the bulk of the playing time in center for Arizona.  [FoxSports]

The Phillies are going to tempt fate, move Jamie Moyer to the bullpen, and give a start Wednesday to Pedro Martinez.  For a couple of innings this might be fun.  After that, who knows…  Personally, I don’t want to see Pedro lose his 100th decision.  [FoxSports]

Dodger second sacker Orlando Hudson strained a groin when he had to quickly change directions on a deflected grounder Monday night and will likely miss at least Tuesday’s game while he heals.  So, he’s day-to-day until we hear otherwise…  [MLB]

Chad Billingsley’s hamstring will keep the Dodger ace from making his start this week, and if he can’t go next Monday will head to the DL.  [SI]

Another player leaving early with an injury is Reds starter Johnny Cueto, who will have his left hip flexor examined.  Cueto was running to first on a grounder when he limped and quit running about 45 feet down the line.  The Reds hurler has been off his game for a month, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a DL stint to rest up and comes back in September.  [MLB]

The Cards got some bad news – Todd Wellemeyer’s elbow was sore following a bullpen session and may miss his next start.  [SI]

And, two other pitchers may get moved soon – both Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang have cleared waivers, according to FoxSports.  Any takers out there?  I mean, a two month loan for a couple of guys who might be motivated to finish strong…  Milwaukee?  Houston?  Los Angeles?  Chicago?

Welcome Back!  Jared Burton (Reds), Chad Durbin (Phils) return from the DL.  Arizona signed Daniel Cabrera to a minor league deal.  I used to love watching Cabrera – big fastball and no idea what he was doing out there.  Maybe he’ll figure it out here – but I doubt it.  I’ll still watch.

Hurry Back!  Rodrigo Lopez got lit up by the Marlins, so the Phillies sent Lopez to AAA.