2011 Season Forecast: Boston Red Sox

Last Five Seasons:

2010:  89 – 73 (3rd AL East)
2009:  95 – 67
2008:  95 – 67
2007:  96 – 66 (WS Champs)
2006:  86 – 76

Runs Scored: 818 (2nd, AL to NYY)
Runs Allowed: 744 (11th in the AL, but considering where they play, it was 6th if you adjust for the park)

2010 Recap:

After a lack-luster start in April, the Red Sox started rolling in May and June, at which point everyone started getting dinged up, including Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and J.D. Drew (which, frankly, was expected).  Bill Hall turned into an everyday player, Darnell McDonald was forced into the lineup, and Mike Lowell’s body finally gave out having to play as often as it did.  Even Tim Wakefield went down with a back injury.  The Red Sox played near .500 the rest of the way, but with both New York and Tampa playing lights out in July and August, the Red Sox weren’t really in the race despite almost making it to 90 wins.

The Red Sox made few mid-season moves of any consequence, other than putting people on the DL.

Starters:

On paper, as good a rotation as can be found.  Jon Lester is an ACE; a lefty in Fenway with a 3.25 ERA and 19 wins who strikes out more than a batter an inning and keeps the ball in the park.  Clay Buchholz earned 28 starts and was even better in terms of runs saved (34 to 26.5), but Lester really had the better stuff and pitched 35 more innings.  John Lackey took a while to get started, but still won 14 decisions and pitched 215 innings.  Daisuke Matsuzaka only made 25 starts, but had a winning record.  Josh Beckett, on the other hand, made 21 awful starts and finished with a 5.78 ERA.  He needs to move off the fastball and find another out pitch.  Tim Wakefield made 19 starts, got swatted around more than usual, and won just four games.  He’s not retired yet, but the league may retire him anyway.

The same five return for 2011, and Wakefield may not have a spot on the roster.  I don’t think Buchholz will match his 2010 rate, but Beckett could be better if healthy.  I don’t expect improvement from the three or five spots (Lackey or Matsuzaka) and worry what would happen if a key starter went down to injury.

Bullpen:

Like Josh Beckett, Jonathon Papelbon was more hittable than in previous years, finishing with a 3.90 ERA.  He walked more batters than usual and just had days where it didn’t work for him.  I think he’ll be fine, but 8th inning stud Daniel Bard could get some save opportunities if needed.  Hideki Okajima fell off a little in 2010, as did Manny Delcarmen.  Guys like Scott Atchison, Ramon Ramirez, Dustin Richardson, and Scott Schoeneweis didn’t really move the needle.  On the other hand, Lester, Lackey, and (down the stretch) Buchholz didn’t need more than two innings of help most nights.

Still, the Red Sox brought in a bunch of guys to help out for 2011, including Bobby Jenks (not really a closer), Matt Albers, Dan Wheeler, and Alfredo Aceves to shore up the pen, which should make it slightly stronger than in 2010.

Catching:

Last year, Victor Martinez proved he could still hit and Jason Varitek proved he could still catch.  On the other hand, Varitek can’t hit much, and Martinez should be a DH.  So, for 2011, Martinez will get to DH in Detroit, and the Red Sox imported Jarrod Saltalamacchia to be the primary starter.  Salty was acquired for prospects in July, 2010 but didn’t play much.  And, he comes to Boston as a question mark.  He has a great work ethic, but hasn’t ever really been a dominant hitter.  And, last year he was sent to AAA because he couldn’t make the throw from behind the plate back to the pitcher.  Let’s hope he’s got this behind him now…

Offensively, this will be a slide – maybe 25 runs – but defensively (unless Saltalamacchia falls off on his game) it could be a minor improvement.

Infield:

The infield was anchored by third baseman Adrian Beltre, who had his best season in Boston, hitting .321 with power, and fielding his position as well as just about anybody.  Shortstop Marco Scutaro didn’t miss many games, but he didn’t make many plays in the field, made quite a few errors, and his batting fell off to league average levels.  The other half missed half the season – Dustin Pedroia only played in 75 games and Kevin Youkilis missed 60.

Youkilis produces a run a game and can still field.  He will be moving off of first base to take over third as Beltre signed a free agent deal with Texas.  And, Adrian Gonzalez was aquired from San Diego (albeit after shoulder surgery) to play first base.  A healthy Gonzalez is a world class hitter and fielder, and if Pedroia plays 140 games, this unit will generate perhaps 15 more runs than they did in 2010.  If Scutaro struggles at the plate this year, it might be time to dig into the minors for glove wizard Jose Iglesias. Jed Lowrie backs everyone up in 2011.

Outfield:

The outfield of Ellsbury, Cameron, and Drew hardly ever played together, so it was a patchwork crew of guys like Jeremy Hermida, Bill Hall, Ryan Kalish, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, and Josh Reddick.

This should change as the Red Sox signed Rays left fielder Carl Crawford for 2011.  Ellsbury will be back, hopefully staying in the lineup and batting in front of the boppers, playing center.  He’s the wild card of this group, not being an especially good defensive centerfielder, and having lost much of the season to build on his offensive tool set.  Drew returns to play as many games as possible in right, with Cameron and McDonald around to pick up games and innings as needed.  If Ellsbury can return to form, and having added Crawford, the offense could improve by 50 runs, easily.

DH:

David Ortiz is still around, having generated 98 runs of offense with a 32 – 102 – .270 campaign.  He’ll still play, but he might get a day off from time to time against a tough lefty with Cameron on the bench.  I don’t see Ortiz repeating 2010, but at least the Sox have options.

Down on the Farm:

AAA Pawtucket’s featured outfielders already got a shot, those being Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddeck – both are mid-level power decent bat types and don’t have jobs in Boston just yet.  Among the pitchers, Michael Bowden keeps getting calls to the Red Sox, but hasn’t been able to stick and probably is looking forward to free agency.

Pitcher Felix Doubront made eight solid starts for AA Portland, earning a trip to Pawtucket.  After another eight good starts, he was in Boston for a few outings and didn’t look overmatched.  I don’t see him making the roster in April, so expect the lefty to start in AAA for 2011.  Anthony Rizzo is a potential power source, having hit 20 homers in Portland after being moved up from A+ Salem.  Just 21, he may start at Pawtucket, but his route to the majors is also blocked.

Salem featured pitcher Stolmy Pimentel, who has decent command but needs a little seasoning.  Infielder Oscar Tejeda hit .307 in Salem, with decent power and some speed.  Ryan Lavarnway showed power and command of the strike zone and should start the year at AA Portland.

Forecasting 2011:

The Red Sox are the consensus pick to win the AL East and possibly the World Series.  It’s hard to argue with the logic.  By my methods, I see the offense improving by perhaps as many as 40 runs, and the pitching holding steady.  The defense will be stronger in the outfield, and the only hole will likely be short and catcher.  With 860 runs scored, and about 740 runs allowed, that puts the Sox around 93 wins.  It’s fewer than many others have predicted, but still enough to edge the Rays for the division crown.

Quick Hit Monday: Heads, Fingers, Hips, and Woes

Heads:

Chris Jakubauskas heads to the DL to clear his noggin after taking a liner off the back of his head on Saturday.  Lance Berkman‘s line drive struck Jakubauskas behind his right ear and bounced back over the catcher’s head.  Amazingly, he never lost consciousness and walked to the cart that drove him away.  Then, he flew home on the team plane Sunday night.  [SI]

Fingers:

Oakland first baseman Daric Barton broke a plate in his right middle finger making a catch of a foul ball on Sunday and is considered day to day.

Hips:

Chipper Jones is battling a hip injury and is day-to-day.  At 38, he’s getting old in terms of being a third baseman as it is – we just need to enjoy him and his career for as long as it lasts.  [FoxSports – South]

Shoulders:

Giants infielder Freddy Sanchez is finally turning the corner and could be ready to rejoin San Francisco in three weeks.  Sanchez is continuing rehab on his left shoulder.  [ESPN]

Woes:

Look for Jeff Suppan to move to the bullpen in Milwaukee after more than two years of ugly starts.  [MLB]

You know it’s been a tough couple of years in New York when you see a headline like this one.  [MLB]

More on Pitchers…

Cliff Lee pitched six shutout innings for AAA Tacoma and will make his 2010 debut for Seattle on Friday.  [ESPN]

Tim Wakefield heads to the bullpen to make room for Daisuke Matsuzaka in Boston.  Wakefield can still get people out.  [ESPN]

And why do YOU hate him?

Joe Posnanski ponders why so many people hate Alex Rodriguez.  Ummm.  He’s a cheat.  He’s a phony.  He does stupid things to annoy people – like yelling at fielders while he runs the bases, or running over the mound while a pitcher is heading back to the rubber to pitch.  [SI]

Transactions Details:

  • Rockies outfielder Brad Hawpe heads to the DL with a strained left quad.  Returning to Colorado?  Infielder Eric Young, Jr.
  • Astros pitcher Sammy Gervacio returns from the DL, and Wilton Lopez heads back to AAA Round Rock.
  • The Pirates recalled two pitchers, Brian Bass and Brian Burres.  One replaces Jakubauskas, while the other replaces the ineffective Daniel McCutchen.
  • Dodgers starter Vicente Padilla heads to the DL to recover from forearm soreness.  His replacement?  The oft-travelled pitcher, Jon Link.
  • Angels catcher Bobby Wilson was run over by Mark Teixeira at a home plate collision and will be out two weeks to deal with a strained ankle and post-concussion symptoms.
  • Ted Lilly returned to the Cubs rotation over the weekend.  When Carlos Zambrano moved from the rotation to the bullpen, the Cubs optioned Jeff Samardzija (my first Topps baseball card of the season) back to AAA Iowa.  I have little faith that Samardzija will ever pan out, but will hope that I am wrong.  The Bears need a receiver – maybe it’s time to reconsider his career choice.
  • The Indians sent outfielder Jonathan Van Every to Boston – who becomes the fifth outfielder on the Red Sox – and the Sox sent Josh Reddick back to AAA Pawtucket.
  • The Dodgers sent Manny Ramirez to the DL with his strained calf.
  • The Tigers sent outfielder Carlos Guillen to the DL with a strained hamstring, and recalled outfielder Brennan Boesch.
  • The Twins sent Nick Punto to the DL to deal with a left hip flexor strain.

Happy Birthday!

1888 – Ray “Rube” Caldwell (one of the first Rube imitators)
1900 – Hack Wilson, Hall of Fame Cubs and Giants outfielder
1917 – Sal “The Barber” Maglie
1917 – Virgil Trucks
1927 – Granny Hamner
1947 – Amos Otis
1955 – Mike Scott
1960 – Steve Lombardozzi
1973 – Geoff Blum
1977 – Kosuke Fukudome
1978 – Joe Crede

2010 Season Forecast: Boston Red Sox

Last Five Seasons:
2009: 95 – 67 (2nd AL East)
2008: 95 – 67
2007: 96 – 66
2006: 86 – 76
2005: 95 – 67

Runs Scored: 872 (3rd AL)
Runs Allowed: 736 (3rd AL)

Season Recap:

Most people figured that the Red Sox would finish first or second in the AL East and, as they have done four times in the last five years, the finished with at least 95 wins.

The Sox actually stumbled out of the gate, losing their first three series to Tampa, Los Angeles, and then Oakland.  An eleven game winning streak got things going, however, putting the Red Sox out front in the first month of the season.  Jason Bay‘s April made up for the struggles of David Ortiz, but already there were problems.

As the calendar turned to May, the Sox were dealing with a hole at shortstop, the lack of offensive production behind the plate, and still David Ortiz hitting like a middle aged AAA infielder.  Brad Penny wasn’t pitching well as a fourth starter, and the team leader in wins was a 40 something knuckeballer.  Daisuke Matsuzaka was rehabbing a sore back – and dealing with his lack of fitness.

In June, things started to look up.  Ortiz started hitting.  Jon Lester hit his stride, and the Sox went 20 – 8 to regain control of the AL East.  Unfortunately, the Yankees were becoming more complete as the season went on while the Red Sox were just coping.  Mike Lowell‘s hip became problematic.  Jed Lowrie was out and Julio Lugo couldn’t stay in the lineup.  Nick Green, who had taken over for both, began hitting the way Nick Green usually hit – which is .240 with no power or patience.  J.D. Drew missed a month of games, and Jason Bay took a month off with poor production in July.

When August began, the Yankees were in control and the Red Sox were an afterthought.  The Sox didn’t have enough bats to make up for a pitching staff that had 4.86 ERA for the last two months of the year.  In fact, if you consider May, July, August, and September, the Red Sox were just eight games over .500 (59 – 51) and had no business being considered among the elite teams in baseball.  A decent April and a very good June gave them the gaudy record they had.

Pitching:

At the top of the rotation, the Red Sox were solid.  Jon Lester went 15 – 8 and saved his team 33 runs over 203.1 innings.  Josh Beckett delivered a healthy season, 17 wins, and saved his team 20 runs in 212.1 innings.  Tim Wakefield wasn’t bad, but with his bad back, he couldn’t pitch much after the all-star break, making just 21 starts.  After that, however, nobody else was really that impressive.

Brad Penny had a 6.08 ERA in his 24 starts.  John Smoltz returned from surgery to make eight ugly start (8.33 ERA).  Daisuke Matsuzaka went 4 – 6 with a 5.76 ERA.  The Sox gave four starts to Junichi Tazawa that they wish hadn’t happened.  Boston finally gave 16 starts to Clay Buchholz, and he went 7 – 4 with a 4.21 ERA – but you have to wonder what took so long.  Same goes with Justin Masterson, who was left in the bullpen but should have had more than six starts.

In the bullpen, the Red Sox remained solid with Jonathan Papelbon‘s  38 saves and 1.85 ERA.  Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito, and Ramon Ramirez were capable and competent middle and short relievers.  Even Billy Wagner and Daniel Bard contributed when asked to pitch.

Looking to 2010, if the Sox want to keep up with the Yankees, they need to have more starting pitching.  John Lackey was signed away from the Angels to give the Sox a big three to go along with Beckett and Lester.  Matsuzaka has to find his way back to 2007 – 2008 form.  If so, that’s four solid starters.  Look for Matsuzaka to fight with Buchholz and Wakefield for the last two spots in the rotation.  Justin Masterson, as you might remember, is with Cleveland after the Sox traded for catcher Victor Martinez.

The bullpen includes Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, and Ramon Ramirez, and is supported by Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard, and possibly prospect Michael Bowden.  I think the Sox will miss having Saito, but if Lackey can stay healthy for 30 starts (he’s been nicked up the last couple of years), they might not need the bullpen as often.

That being said, this unit is more potential than actual at the back end – and that tempers my opinion just a little bit.  There is every good reason for this group to be 30 runs better than last season, but in all likelihood, I see it more like 15 runs better.

Catching:

Victor Martinez joined the Sox in the late summer and helped sustain the offense (.336 BA, 507 Slugging).  I think he’ll do just fine in a full season – which will be about 15 runs better than having more Jason Varitek playing full time.  At the same time, Martinez isn’t in Varitek’s league as a catcher (though neither is any good against the run anymore), so it might cost the team about five runs defensively.

Infield:

Kevin Youkilis is a mobile and dependable first and third baseman who, with the addition of Adrian Beltre, will find most of his playing time at first base.  He hits for some power, gets on base a lot – one of the best first basemen in baseball.  Mike Lowell, if he remains, could be a competent backup at both corners.

Dustin Pedroia wasn’t as good in 2009 as he had been in 2008 – but he dropped off both offensively and defensively.  I think he’ll bounce back some defensively, but we’ve probably seen his best offensive season already.

After a year trying Julio Lugo, Jed Lowrie, Nick Green, and Alex Gonzalez at short – failures abounding here – the Sox went out and signed free agent Marco Scutaro from Toronto.  As mentioned in my comments about the shortstops, Scutaro is NOT a top flight defender, but he’ll be a step up.  He’s also coming off a career year and is closer to 35 than 25.

At third, the Sox went defensive – signing Mariner Adrian Beltre to replace Mike Lowell (only Lowell couldn’t leave).  Beltre remains as good a fielder at the position as you will find, and if he can return to good health will have offensive numbers not too different than what Lowell produced.  Lowell was supposedly traded to Texas for catcher Max Ramirez, but hand injuries prevented that trade from happening.  So, for now the Sox have a really good (and expensive) insurance policy.

Bill Hall arrives from Milwaukee to join Jed Lowrie and Lowell in providing bench support.

As a group, this is going to be a bit better than last year – maybe 20 runs better defensively and 15 runs better offensively.

Outfield:

Jason Bay, an all-star left fielder, is gone – and his replacement is Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Mike Cameron.  Cameron is still a solid defensive player so he’ll get the nod in center and move speedster (but not nearly as good defensively) Jacoby Ellsbury to left.  Bay was surprisingly good in left, so Ellsbury will hopefully just maintain the good numbers.  Cameron will be an improvement over Ellsbury in center – assuming that he doesn’t suddenly age in Boston.  In right, J.D. Drew returns – just as likely he’ll be missing time and we’ll get to see more of former Marlin Jeremy HermidaBill Hall could play some out here as well.

I don’t see this as an offensive improvement – it’s probably a loss of 40 runs from 2009.  Defensively, however, it should be fifteen runs better.

DH/Bench:

David Ortiz struggled and you all read about it.  What is lost is how well he played in the last four months, nearly making it to 100 RBI.  I don’t think he’s going back to his old days – he doesn’t have the bat speed and needs to lose about 30 pounds.  But, he can be productive and guys like Hermida and Martinez will do fine as his occasional replacement.

The rest of the bench is pretty good – Hermida can play two positions in the outfield, Hall can play four or five positions.  Jed Lowrie covers the other two, and Varitek is a tolerable back up catcher.  I just don’t think that the offense off the bench will be that good.

Prospects:

Most of the AAA hitters are getting long in the tooth, and the one player who stood out was outfielder Chris Carter, a former Diamondback farmhand who is 27 and should have made it by now.  He must have defensive issues – because he can surely hit.  Of course, he’s with the Mets now.  Let’s hope he catches a break there.  The best pitchers, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Hunter Jones, and Clay Buchholz are already with the big club.  (Hunter Jones is with the Marlins.)

The Portland River Dogs (AA) featured a couple of pitchers that might make an impact in a couple of years – but likely somewhere else.  Junichi Tazawa smoked AA, pitched well enough at AAA and got a shot with the big club.  He’s not ready, but he’s close.  Good control, decent strikeout numbers…  Felix Doubrant, a 22-year-old, has great stuff but needs to work on his control.  I see him in AAA at the start of 2010.  And reliever Dustin Richardson has NASTY stuff, 80Ks in 63 innings, but walked 40 – and that’s going to be a problem.  He COULD be a future closer, but not yet.

First baseman Aaron Bates alternates between hitting .340 and .240 – the good guy would be great, but the former third round pick (2006) hasn’t been consistent at the top levels.  Outfielder Josh Reddick is 23, has great power, but needs another season before he makes the concert tour with the big boys.

At A+ Salem (where I was surprised to see former Royals infielder Carlos Febles is the batting instructor), the most interesting prospect is from Taiwan, Che-Hsuan Lin.  Lin can run, is 21, and shows some patience and the potential to find a little power.  If he has a big year in AA, look for someone to give him a MLB look.  Anthony Rizzo is even younger and hits a bit like Mark Grace – and plays first base, too.  Ryan Kalish was so good at Salem, he moved to Portland and still showed power.  He’s 22 and will start 2010 at AAA.

Two pitchers that caught my eye were Casey Kelly and Eammon Portice.  Portice has control, an out pitch, and the Ft. Lauderdale native who was a late round 2007 draft pick has been a pleasant surprise at every level.  Kelly is a rare find – the spot starter/shortstop.  He won’t hit enough to play in the big leagues, but has a live arm and might make it based on his great control and power strikeout numbers.  In 95 innings, he’s walked just 16 batters, allowed 65 hits, and fanned 74.

Forecast:

With the offense staying good but likely not great, the improvements defensively and in the rotation should be enough to push the Red Sox back to the top.  The system says 97 wins, but personally, I’d play the under.  If my hunches about both the Yankees and Red Sox are right, Boston and New York would finish in a dead heat – but the system picks the Sox.

Free Agents Filing at Torrid Pace…

‘Tis the season for teams to decide on what members will remain on the 40-man roster, and which players will not get tendered offers based on existing options, and for other players to test the market.  So, for the next several days, the list of players on the MLB Free Agent list will grow and the number of players officially on the 40-man rosters will likely shrink for a little while.

The Rumor Mill

FoxSports reports that the Cubs are considering a three-way deal to move Milton Bradley.  The Cubs would get Luis Castillo from the Mets, the Mets would get Lyle Overbay from the Toronto Blue Jays, and Toronto would get Bradley.  Other deals suggest the Rays getting involved and offering Pat Burrell for Bradley.  [FoxSports]

The Mariners are looking to keep Felix Hernandez around (which means starting the process of a long-term deal now), but understand that there are many, many suitors for the AL Cy Young candidate.  [SI]

Thanks for Playing!

Carl Crawford remains in Tampa as the Rays honored his $10 million option.  Meanwhile, Brian Shouse and Greg Zaun were both bought out and will become free agents.  [ESPN]

Boston picked up the option for catcher Victor Martinez ($7.1 million), signed Tim Wakefield to a two-year deal loaded with incentives, but declined an option on Jason Varitek.  Varitek has the option to sign for $3 million to be a backup next year, else join the free agent market.  For Wakefield, he’ll have a chance to break the team record for pitching victories (Young/Clemens have 192) and win his 200th career game.  [ESPN]

Free Agent Filings…

The most interesting story is that a Japanese fireballer, Ryota Igarashi of the Yakult Swallows, owner of a 98-mph fastball, wants to play here.  Japanese players have to wait nine seasons before they can come to the states and Igarashi is already 30 but could be a viable late inning pitcher for somebody.  [ESPN]

The Dodgers declined a $2.2 million option on reliever Will Ohman, while Mark Loretta and Juan Castro also filed.  [ESPN/MLB]

Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, Yankee World Series heroes, joined the current list of 151 free agents.  Other Yankees on the list now include Eric Hinske, Jose Molina, and Xavier Nady.  [MLB]

Houston’s Jose Valverde, as good a reliever on the market, filed for free agency yesterday.  At least five Astros players (Erstad, Tejada, Brocail) are on the list now.  [MLB]

Octavio Dotel not only filed, but learned he was a Type A free agent, which means the Sox have to offer arbitation if they hope to get compensation should someone else sign Dotel.  [MLB]

Rockies pitchers Joe Beimel and Jose Contreras filed for free agency.  If Beimel is healthy, he’s a good pickup, but I’d be surprised if Contreras gets a lot of interest from teams.  [MLB]

Cubs closer (well, former closer) Kevin Gregg filed for free agency, and – like Dotel – was graded as a Type A free agent, meaning the Cubs have to offer Gregg arbitration to get the compensation draft pick.  [MLB]

Twins infielder Orlando Cabrera joined the list of free agents, alongside Mike Redmond, Ron Mahay, Carl Pavano, and Joe Crede on the list.  [MLB]

Toronto catcher Rod Barajas is a free agent, though he noted that he’d love to stay a Blue Jay.  [MLB]

You know who has a lot of free agents?  St. Louis.  Todd Wellemeyer became the ninth player (Holliday, Ankiel, Pineiro, Smoltz, Glaus, Greene, DeRosa, LaRue) to file.  [MLB]

Gary Sheffield also filed for free agency, trying to find ANYONE who might give him a chance to play.  He’s at eight teams and counting…  [MLB]

Free Agent Discussions

Jerry Crasnick met with a number of executives and put eight questions before them.  Want to see the answers?  [ESPN]

SI’s Ted Keith identifies his list of the ten riskiest free agents.  Well, nine + Rich Harden!!!  [SI]

Old News…

Something else I missed last week…  With several infielders on the horizon (Reid Brignac, Tim Beckham) and Ben Zobrist having blasted his way into the starting lineup, the Rays had less need for Akinori Iwamura.  So, the Rays shipped Iwamura to Pittsburgh for reliever Jesse Chavez.  Chavez probably appreciates the change of scenery, joining a contender, but he’ll need to step up his game to be a contributor.  I like this move for Pittsburgh.

Happy Birthday!

His 1961 season put him on the map, and for much of the 1960s, he was a great Tiger slugger – Norm Cash would be 75 today…

Also celebrating with cards and cake (or rememberances):  Jimmy Dykes (1896), Birdie Tebbetts (1912), Gene Conley (1930), Mike Vail (1951), Larry Christenson (1953), Larry Parrish (1953), Bob Stanley (1954), Jack Clark (1955), Kenny Rogers (1964), Keith Lockhart (1964), and Shawn Green (1972)…

Afterthoughts…

For the first time in nearly 30 years, it looks like all 27 members of the U.S. Appeals court will review the “drug list” case, determining the fate of the list of 104 players who allegedly failed the 2003 anonymous steroid survey.  [MLB]

Phillies Join MLB Final Four; Rest of League News (Finally!)

After broomsticks cleared out the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Twins, the Phillies pulled out a stunning come from behind 9th inning victory to top the Rockies, 5 – 4, and win their best of five series in four games.  The Rockies had rallied for three runs off of Phillies starter Cliff Lee and a couple of relievers in the bottom of the  eighth, but the Phillies answered with three runs of their own, led by Ryan Howard’s two-out double and a flair off the bat of Jayson Werth to beat Rockies closer Huston Street.  Street had been awesome all season, so I hope he doesn’t suffer like Brad Lidge did after he blew a playoff series to St. Louis a few years back…

So who you got?  Yankees or Angels?  Dodgers or Phillies?  Games start Thursday…  I can’t wait.

Hot Stove Already Warming Up…

The Red Sox have tried to lock in Jason Bay to a contract, but Bay admitted that he’s going to test the market unless he gets a “wow” offer in the next two weeks.   At least two others have filed for free agency, pitchers David Davidson (is that redundant?) and Scott Proctor.  [MLB]

If the White Sox are really interested in Bobby Jenks, perhaps they should be less vocal in asking Jenks to lose weight. Jenks is starting to take it personally.  On the other hand, Jenks has become less effective each of the last two seasons – so maybe a treadmill or aerobics class might be a good thing.  [MLB]

Managerial Carousel…

Tony LaRussa isn’t sure what he wants to do in 2010, a season where his pitching coach became disgruntled (they traded Dave Duncan’s son away, for crying out loud), and the team was blasted out of the playoffs with little more than a whimper.  LaRussa, despite his obvious efforts to color his hair, is 65 now and his contract is up at the conclusion of the World Series.  The Cards would keep him, no doubt, but at least it gives some news people things to talk about.  [FoxSports]

The Houston Astros have at least ten people on the list of managerial candidates to replace Cecil Cooper.  Get out your 1980s and 1990s baseball cards…  Dave Clark, Tim Bogar, Randy Ready, Brad Mills, Bob Melvin, Al Pedrique…  Even Manny Acta is on the list (really?).  [FoxSports]

Hurry Back! Tim Wakefield heads to surgery to remove fragments from his back.  Hopefully the knuckleballer can come back for another go…  [MLB]

Is it Over? The Padres waived Cliff Floyd…  (San Diego also waived Shawn Hill and Cha Seung Baek.)  For what it’s worth, MLB referred to Floyd as a DH – but can a NL team really carry a DH?

Happy Birthday! Rube Waddell was born on Friday the 13th, 1876, in Bradford, PA.  For this life story, you’ll have to buy my book…  You know, Wild Bill Donovan’s career paralleled Rube’s career – they had many games against each other, including trips to the bowling alley.  How did I never know that Wild Bill was also born on the exact same day?

Others on the birthday list include:  Pickles Dilhoefer (1893), that Black Sox crook Swede Risberg (1894), Eddie Yost (1926), Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews (1931), Bob Bailey (1942), Randy Moffitt (1948), Dick Pole (1950), Frank LaCorte (1951),  George Frazier (1954), *that’s a lot of former Cubs relievers…, and future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman (1967).  Wow – three Hall of Famers on the same day…

Heaven Welcomes… Larry Jansen, a Giants pitcher who won the 1951 playoff game more famous for Bobby Thomson’s homer, died at 89 on Saturday.  Jansen came on in relief of Sal Maglie and got the last two outs (both strikeouts) in the top of the ninth.  That year, Jansen won 23 games – the second time he had won at least 20.  As a rookie in 1947, Jansen went 21 – 5.  He had about a six year run as a top flight pitcher, but his arm left him during the 1952 season when he injured his back and a chiropractor encouraged him to wear a corset for support.  Only, he wasn’t supposed to wear it when he was pitching – and the arm trouble set in when he was compensating by overthrowing.  Jansen said that he was on the road and couldn’t see his own chiropractor and visited someone in New York that had been recommended to him.  His arm never came back, and eventually was released by the Giants in July, 1954.  He got a shot with the Reds in 1956, but he was never really the same.

Jansen actually had been drafted as an amateur in 1940 by the Red Sox but the Sox never signed him – so Jansen started his career with the San Francisco Seals.  The Seals sent him to Salt Lake City in the Pioneer League where he would win 20 games.  Returning to the Seals, he suffered through bouts of pneumonia and when called before the draft board during World War II, he was allowed to stay home and work on the farm and in other war jobs until the war ended.  Returning to play in the PCL, Jansen went 30 – 6 with a 1.57 ERA in 321 innings for the 1946 Seals, and the Giants gobbled him up for $25,000.  Jansen was a few months shy of his 27th birthday when he got his first start with the Giants in 1947.  Among the slices of trivia to which Jansen’s name is attached – he allowed a double to Joe DiMaggio in the Clipper’s final World Series at bat in 1951.  Jansen also pitched five innings of relief in the 1950 all star game, striking out a record tying six batters.

Jansen told a story of how he was closing out the second game of a doubleheader in the ninth inning against the Cardinals and it was getting dark.  He and Wes Westrum, the catcher, were stalling as much as possible – and Stan Musial was the batter.  With two strikes, Westrum strode to the mound and told Larry to act as if was pitching.  Westrum took the ball back behind the plate with him.  Jansen faked his windup and pretended to throw.  Then, Westrum popped the ball in his glove and showed the ball to the ump – who called Musial out on strikes.  Musial was livid – saying the pitch was high and outside…  I looked for this game on Retrosheet – if it happened, it happened on May 2, 1954.  However, Musial had grounded out for the first out of the inning.  The last batter of the game struck out – but it was Rip Repulski.

When Jansen’s career ended, he stayed active in MLB as a pitching coach for the Giants and Cubs, then settled into real estate in his native Oregon.  Jansen and his wife had 10 kids…

Notes:

Attiyeh, Mike. “Larry Jansen, A Forgotten Winner of ’51 Playoff Game,” Baseball Digest.  September 1998.  Pages 64 – 69.

Dexter, Charles. “Pitcher’s Pitcher Larry Jansen,” Baseball Digest, February 1951.  Pages 43 to 48.

McKee, James.  “Larry Jansen Dusts off a few Oldies,” Baseball Digest, June 1969.  Pages 45 – 46.

The Season is Over – But it’s Not… Twins and Tigers on Tuesday for Title

Justin Verlander did what he had to do – he beat the White Sox on the last game of the season to keep the Tigers from fading into history.  Meanwhile, the Twins pounded the Kansas City Royals to keep pace, setting up a Tuesday night game in the Metrodome for the AL Central Division crown.  It’ll be Rick Porcello for Detroit, and Scott Baker for Minnesota, who has been in a game 163 before.  Last year, the Twins hosted a playoff play-in but lost to John Danks and the White Sox. [MLB]

The weekend had a few interesting tidbits.  The Minnesota Twins had a little in-fighting when pitcher Jose Mijares plunked a Tiger in Thursday’s game, and the Tigers retalliated by hitting Delmon Young.  Young was angry – at Mijares.  However, a quality scolding from Ron Gardenhire brought the two back into thinking about the goal – which was taking on Kansas City.  [FoxSports]

Let’s discuss some playoff news (which starts Wednesday)

Boston will get Alex Gonzalez, whose hand was injured when hit by a Kerry Wood pitch on Friday night.  X-Rays were negative.  [ESPN]

And, Boston awaits news on Rocco Baldelli.  The outfielder has a left hip-flexor injury, but appears to be day-to-day for now.

Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa strained his left groin in his last start of the season, but hopes to pitch in the playoffs.  [MLB]

A couple of days ago, I told you about the late season finish of Joba Chamberlain.  This weekend, the Yankees’ brass decided to keep Chamberlain and keep him as a bullpen option.  [ESPN]

The Cards plan on using Kyle Lohse and John Smoltz out of the bullpen for the  playoffs, while Tim Wakefield will not be on the ALDS roster.

What’s up with the bruise on Tiger first baseman Miguel Cabrera’s face?  Even the Detroit Free Press has no idea – and listed to a lot of “no comment” responses.

Bronson Arroyo pitched great down the stretch and therefore has decided to put off carpal tunnel surgery.  The problem seemed to have gone away when Arroyo gave up playing the guitar…  [MLB]

Comings and Goings in Management… Orioles Manager Dave Trembley gets another season at the helm, despite a long September losing streak (13 games), for doing a good job with the young talent.  [SI]

Brewers manager Ken Macha gets another year (and an option), but will have to make due with a new pitching and bullpen coach.  [MLB]

Padres GM Josh Towers is done, possibly so that new Padres ownership can have “their own guy”.  Towers did a pretty good job with limited options over the last few years.  [SI]

Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi was canned after a handful of moderately successful, but frankly disappointing seasons.  And, with his departure, can Cito Gaston be far behind?  Players don’t like Gaston’s lack of communication issues.  [ESPN]

Afterthoughts… Remember Shawn Chacon?  The former MLB pitcher was arrested for failing to pay $150,000 in gambling markers to Caesar’s Palace.  [MLB]

While the Rangers Fall, Two Races Just Got Interesting…

Wow – the wrong end of four shutouts in five games…  The Rangers are done – picking the worst possible time for a batting slump never seen in Arlington before.  Last night, Scott Kazmir and the Angels did the trick, winning 2 – 0.  Texas needed a sweep this weekend, but now are 7-1/2 games out with two weeks to play.  Those kinds of miracles just don’t happen all the time.  [SI]

And, a nasty hamstring injury isn’t allowing Michael Young to play – and Young’s bat is really needed…  Young says he’s day-to-day, but that’s not going to be enough.  [ESPN]

Meanwhile, a late rally by the Diamondbacks continued to close the gap in the NL Wildcard race.  The Rockies lost, while both the Giants and Marlins (Go Fish!) pulled off late rallies to win.  The Rockies lead the Giants by 2-1/2, and the Marlins lurk four games back.  I love the Marlins, but it’s hard enough to catch one team, much less two.  The Marlins were two arms shy in this race, but have done a nice job.  [MLB]

And, the Twins aren’t giving up.  Last night, the Twins handled Detroit, 3 – 0, beating Rick Porcello no less to close the gap in the AL Central to just three games.  If there is any race that is truly in play here, it’s this one.  The two teams face each other six more times…  [MLB]

By the way, Brian Duensing has looked solid since being inserted into the Minnesota rotation in late August.  In three of his last four starts, Duensing hasn’t allowed an earned run.

Andy Pettitte can’t wait for Monday’s start to see if his tired shoulder is ready for a post-season run; and Tim Wakefield’s legs are coming around and he could also be ready to help in the post-season.  [ESPN]

A third arm readying for the post-season is Clayton Kershaw.  The Dodger starter is recovering from a separated (non-throwing) shoulder, and yesterday he pitched well in a bullpen session.  Kershaw says he felt normal out there, so we might see him in a week or so.  [MLB]

Cubs starter Rich Harden may miss a start or two – and didn’t learn it from his manager.  Harden learned it talking to a Chicago Tribune reporter…  I’m thinking that Lou Piniella’s reign won’t survive Memorial Day unless his team gets off to a 40 – 20 start.   There are just too many hints that his personality issues are starting to get in the way of his managing skills and he’s wearing out his welcome.  [SI]

Cy-Young candidate Zack Greinke got drilled by a comeback liner in his last start against Detroit, and now may get a couple of extra days before his next start.  Miguel Cabrera’s liner caught Greinke in the upper part of his throwing arm…  [MLB]

Kansas Jayhawk Alum and former Bill James intern Rob Neyer, as good a blogger as there is for ESPN, contends that Greinke should be more than a candidate for the Cy, but should be considered for the MVP award, too.  [ESPN]

Baltimore rookie outfielder Nolan Reimhold’s season is over.  Reimhold has fraying in his left Achilles tendon…  He’s been dealing with pain for weeks now, but this week it turned for the worse, so the Orioles are shutting him down in favor of healing and resting for 2010.  Reimhold (15 – 45 – .279, leads rookies in slugging and OBA) is a candidate for the Rookie of the Year award…

Another guy getting shut down?  Yovani Gallardo, the ace of Milwaukee.  (Bummer – this is killing my fantasy team in the playoffs, no less!!!)  Gallardo will get one more start (making 30) for his first full professional season, and needs just a few strikeouts to make 200 on the season.  [SI]

Hurry Back! Royals outfielder Jose Guillen (Former outfielder?) heads to the DL with a hamstring injury.  Oakland pitcher Vin Mazzaro heads to the DL with shoulder tendinitis.  Washington catcher Jesus Flores’s season comes to an end with a torn labrum.  Orioles pitcher Kam Mickolio has inflammation in his throwing shoulder and heads to the DL.

Welcome Back! Mike Adams returns to San Diego.

Woohoo! The Royals signed Aaron Crow, their first round pick out of Mizzou…

Afterthoughts… Senior citizens who once were waiters at old Yankee Stadium were not retained in the new Yankee Stadium – which looks like age discrimination, hence a lawsuit (according to the NY Post).   The Post says that waiters were paid $28,000 a year for 80 working days – which is a pretty good salary, don’t you think?  Anyway – the waiters claim that the team wanted younger, cheaper staffers.  [FanNation]

Another story that caught my attention… Read this article.  How can the Orioles lose touch with Brooks Robinson?