2011 Season Forecast: Detroit Tigers

Last Five Seasons:

2010:  81 – 81
2009:  86 – 77
2008:  74 – 88
2007:  88 – 74
2006:  95 – 67

Has it been that long since Kenny Rogers was doctoring baseballs in the World Series?

More to the current team – last year the Tigers were 52 – 29 at home, and 29 – 52 on the road, with comparable splits in terms of runs scored/allowed.  The Tigers were +82 in runs at home, and – 74 in runs on the road.

Runs Scored: 751  (8th in the AL)
Runs Allowed: 743  (10th in the AL)

You’d think that a team that was below average in offense and defense would have a record slightly below .500, but the Tigers held on for dear life to stay at .500.

Season Recap:

The Tigers were picked by many to compete for the AL Central crown, but most people had them second or third.  After a reasonably good April, the Tigers gave back games in May, won a few more than they lost in June, and then just kind of stayed just off the fringe of the race until August.  By then, they had lost Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen.  The Scott Sizemore experiment was a disaster, which didn’t help, and despite the best efforts of Miguel Cabrera, the offense couldn’t deliver down the stretch.

The Tigers were a team that got on rolls – good and bad.  They would win a bunch of games and make a run to the top.  Five of six off the start, six in a row in early May, eight of nine against Pittsburgh, Washington and Arizona (I mean – WOW – Detroit had an easy interleague schedule) to move to 37 – 29.  The fourth streak, in early July, put the Tigers at 48 – 37 one day before the All-Star break.  Unfortunately, the Tigers lost all momentum – losing seven in a row and 20 of 25 to fall out of the race by early August.  Toward the end of the season, Detroit rattled off eight wins in nine games to get to 80 – 75, but lost six in a row and had to win the last game of the season to get to .500.

Starters:

Justin Verlander is a legitimate ace, saving his team 20 runs over league average pitching and winning 67% of his decisions.  Max Scherzer, acquired from Arizona, is a solid #2 starter and was a start away from 200 innings, which he should make in 2011.  Rick Porcello wasn’t as good as hoped, but there are things to build on.  Armando Galarraga, he of the perfect game that wasn’t, was a moderately below average pitcher in part because he, like Porcello, pitches too much to contact and doesn’t miss bats with pitches.  Jeremy Bonderman made a comeback season, but in a painful way – an ERA of 5.53 pitching in a decent pitcher’s park and with a reasonably good defense behind him – he was 32 runs worse than an average starter of his 171 innings.  An extra run a start.  Ouch.  Two others made a few starts, Dontrelle Willis – who is gone – and Andrew Oliver, who should be back in AAA.

Looking ahead, Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello return, to be joined by reliever Phil Coke – a decent middle reliever – and former quality starter, Brad Penny.  I’ve always been a fan of Penny’s (works very fast, throws strikes), but I don’t know if his body can handle the load.  He’s turning into Rick Reuschel, which can’t be good either.  However, he’s a better bet to be successful than Jeremy Bonderman.  The problem may be finding a sixth starter option.

Relievers:

The bullpen is led by closer Jose Valverde, a very good finisher, and imported setup man, Joaquin Benoit – a shut down 8th inning option.  After that, Joel Zumaya is still around (albeit a chance to get injured), and a few others are there to mop up, including Daniel Schlereth (a decent enough lefty with gobs of upside), Ryan Perry, and Brad Thomas or Eddie Bonine.

Catching:

Alex Avila earned the job full time, and his backup will be DH Victor Martinez.  Avila has tolerable defensive skills, but needs to step up some with the batting average – which would start with striking out less.

Infield:

Miguel Cabrera is arguably the best hitter in baseball, and last year seemed to have beaten whatever demons befell him at the end of 2009.  Of course, he blew that heading to spring training, but he should still be able to hit the ball in 2011.  The Tigers missed Placido Polanco, a solid defensive player who chipped in by hitting around .300.  Last year, Scott Sizemore earned a shot, but gave it away by showing less than acceptable range and hitting .224 and striking out about 28% of the time.  Carlos Guillen played a little at second before his body gave way and Will Rhymes took over.  In the minors, Rhymes was never Sizemore’s equal in terms of being a prospect, but at the majors, Rhymes was a better fielder and hitter. Looking ahead, the same three guys are back – and someone will have to back up Guillen when he breaks down in June or July.  (Look, I like Guillen, but this is what happens when you get old.  If he plays 140 games, the Tigers will benefit greatly, but I don’t know that he can do it.)  Jhonny Peralta returns to play short for the full year – not a solid defender anymore but can still put some runs on the board.  Brandon Inge returns to play third base – fielding well, hitting a few homers, but otherwise being an ordinary player.

Looking at this, the problem is that the front four are (a) on the down side of their career, or (b) trying to age faster than he has to by adding weight and drinking heavily.  This can’t be a good sign if you are a Tigers fan.

Outfield:

Austin Jackson was fantastic last year – a lot of hits, decent defense, and flashes of brilliant speed (10 triples, 27 stolen bases).  He is among the best centerfielders in the AL.  Right fielder Magglio Ordonez is getting long in the tooth, still can hit, but his defense is problematic.  And he can’t DH as much as you’d want because Victor Martinez was brought in to be the DH.  In left, either Ryan Raburn or Brennan Boesch, who are essentially the same player, will get to play.  Raburn is marginally better – higher average, slightly better glove – but you wouldn’t complain (as a pitcher) if your outfield were Raburn, Jackson, and Boesch.

DH:

Did I mention that Victor Martinez was brought in to be the DH?  He replaces Johnny Damon, who heads to Tampa because everyone from the east heads to Florida to retire.  Martinez should contribute more than Damon, but not a TON more.  Martinez played in Boston and generated about 83.4 runs of offense, while Damon played in Detroit and generated 79.7 runs.

Down on the Farm:

Alfredo Figaro looked like the best pitching prospect at AAA Toledo, but even with a decent W/L record and K/W data, his ERA was the same as the team average and when he got a cup of coffee with the big club, he was treated rudely by batters.  The best hitters are on the Tigers – Scott Sizemore and Will Rhymes.  Not a lot of immediate help here…

Heading to AA Erie, the most interesting person there might be outfielder Brandon Douglas.  He has NO power.  None.  What he has is amazing contact skills and has hit .331 in his several stops in the minors.  I can’t tell how good a fielder he is – he’s bounced around between second and short, which means he’s a second baseman in the bigs.  If he’s ANY good at all, in a year or two he could be the next Placido Polanco.

Another guy who could be interesting is pitcher Adam Wilk.  Wilk made 14 starts in low A ball after coming out of Long Beach State and struck out 67 and walked just seven batters.  He had comparable numbers at A+ Lakeland (100Ks, 19 walks in 24 starts), and then slid into AA for three starts – and all were successful.  He’s not making the Tigers in 2011, but he COULD make the team in 2012 and be a good fourth or third starter.

Last year’s #1 pick Jacob Turner did what you wanted to see in his first year of professional ball, and will likely start 2011 in A+ Lakeland before moving to Erie mid-season.  Second round pick Andrew Oliver is moving quickly through the system and was given a cup of coffee in 2010 with the parent club.

Season Forecast:

I’m not convinced that Detroit will compete.  Inge, Guillen, Peralta, and even Cabrera are candidates to regress from 2010.  That could be 20 runs defensively and 40 runs offensively.  The outfield will stay the same – the gains in center field and possibly left are offset by the potential losses in right field.  Then you get to the pitching staff, and I don’t see how Coke is better than Galarraga and even though Penny is better than Bonderman – how many starts will that be?  10?  20?  30?  The sixth starter option doesn’t appeal to me – so if it’s 10, the pitching won’t be much better in 2011 than it was last year.

Given this, I think the Tigers will score about 720 runs and allow about 760, which is about 77 wins.  It’s not too unreasonable to think it could be worse, especially if Cabrera misses a significant amount of time or plays below the level we are used to seeing.  This team could injure it’s way out and suffer through six months that were as bad as the Tigers were in July and August.  That’s a 70 – 90 team.

Where can you find optimism?  Brad Penny making 30 starts, Rick Porcello getting a bit better, Guillen and Ordonez not only maintaining batting skills but playing 130 games each, and Ryan Raburn bouncing up in his numbers.  If ALL those things happened, the Tigers could win 85 games.  I just think that’s a lot to ask for.

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2010 Top AL Right Fielders

Jose Bautista – TOR (131.3 Runs Created, -7.3 Runs Saved = 124.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Earned a long term contract by having the greatest fluke season in the last 50 years.  An historic improvement over his previous career.  Let’s get to what he can do…  He’s a pretty good infielder and wasn’t very good as a right fielder.  He MIGHT be able to stay around 30 homers for a couple of years.  One fears for him, however, if he gets off to a really slow start in 2011 and it starts to get into his head around June.

Ichiro Suzuki – SEA (115.6 Runs Created, 5.8 Runs Saved = 121.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Fell off a little in 2010 and was still a remarkable hit machine.  Still can fly, still can throw, still can slap singles all over the place.  3678 hits in professional baseball means he’s probably three to four years away from Pete Rose – and four to five years away from 3000 hits as a major leaguer, which would likely assure his place in the Hall of Fame, not that he should have a problem racing in there when he’s done.  Can you tell that, at 37, he’s lost a step?  I don’t see it.

Nelson Cruz – TEX (86.8 Runs Created, 25.9 Runs Saved = 112.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Imagine how good Cruz would have been had he played 154 games instead of 108.  Totally capable of a 30 homer, 100 RBI season, batting well over .300, stealing 25 bases, and with eye popping defensive stats.  2010 season projected to 162 games, we’re talking 160 or more runs of value – MVP type numbers.  Scary good.

Nick Swisher – NYY (95.9 Runs Created, 14.5 Runs Saved = 110.4 Total Runs Productivity)

A decent outfielder in a position where he’ll get a lot of fly balls because teams occasionally load up the lineup with guys who try to hit homers over his head.  A decent power hitter who, if he played in Minnesota, might have stats that look like Jason Kubel’s instead.  And yet, even after you adjust for things like that, he comes out looking like a VERY valuable player.  He is.

Torii Hunter will be playing in right field for much of 2011 and had started that process at the end of 2010.  As a right fielder, Hunter would likely be ranked right here (109.8 Total Runs Productivity).

Shin-Soo Choo – CLE (114.9 Runs Created, -7.2 Runs Saved = 107.7 Total Runs Productivity)

A truly impressive player; 20/20 club, with 90 RBI, .400+ OBP, though his defensive range fell off in 2010.  Deserves a chance to play where people can see how good he really is.  At the age where he could have a truly break-out season, so he might be worth eying in your fantasy draft.

Ben Zobrist – TB (79.9 Runs Created, 14.4 Runs Saved = 94.3 Total Runs Productivity)

His batting average fell way off, as did his power, in 2010 and yet he was STILL very productive because he can run, he drew 92 walks, and can play every position on the field except, perhaps, catcher.  One of my favorite players, in part, because he’s the type of player I wished I could be when I was a little leaguer.

Nick Markakis – BAL (97.9 Runs Created, -7.1 Runs Saved = 90.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Durable player, below average range but a big arm, seems to be losing power though he hits a lot of doubles (45 in 2010).  Has gone from a number three, four, or five hitter to a number two hitter.  Like Choo, just turned 27, so this could be his big year.

Michael Cuddyer – MIN (88.9 Runs Created, 1.2 Runs Saved = 90.1 Total Runs Productivity)

The right fielder for the first half of the season, and the first baseman after Morneau went down to an injury.  Actually played slightly better defensively as a first baseman, but wasn’t awful in the outfield either.  Power fell off with the move to the new Target field and, when he turns 32 in March, will have reached the point in his career where he will leave his peak years and head into his decline phase.

Bobby Abreu – LAA (99.9 Runs Created, -13.3 Runs Saved = 86.6 Total Runs Productivity)

His batting average fell to .255, but he still created just shy of 100 runs.  A defensive liability, so perhaps it’s time to become a DH.  People see the stolen base numbers and assume he can cover ground in the outfield – until they see him try to cut off a fly ball.  Is Abreu a Hall of Famer?  Let the discussion begin.

Jason Kubel – MIN (73.4 Runs Created, -5.0 Runs Saved = 68.4 Total Runs Productivity)

A poor fielder, who is usually asked to DH, but had to play in the field more after Justin Morneau’s injury.  He did the best he could and remains a productive player.

Brennan Boesch – DET (64.0 Runs Created, 4.0 Runs Saved = 68.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Also played in left field – nearly full time combined.  He’s got mid-range power, can cover some ground, a bit better eye than Ryan Raburn.  If nothing else, when the Tigers kept Damon or Ordonez as a DH, they had a young and mobile outfield.  Damon is gone now, so both Raburn and Boesch will get 550 at bats rather than 400.

J.D. Drew – BOS (72.1 Runs Created, -7.0 Runs Saved = 65.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Still a productive player, despite a body that has never really been able to take a 150 game schedule, much less 162.  Now 35 and in his decline phase, the Red Sox will need to be looking for his replacement.

I don’t know if you remember how his career started.  When he came out of Florida State, he was the big deal – but he never signed when drafted in 1997 because he and the Phillies couldn’t agree as to the value of such a high draft pick (#2).  After playing a year for free as a member of the St. Paul Saints, he was drafted again by the Cards and immediately became the top prospect in MLB.  In his first cup of coffee, he hit .417 with five homers in 36 at bats.  His rookie season was off, he never stayed healthy, and for a couple of years, he was a nomad.  Only once has he hit .300, or hit 30 homers, or driven in 100 runs (okay, he also hit .323 but in only 109 games and wouldn’t have qualified for a batting title).  And, he never did any of those in the same season.  Considering how he was viewed then, and now looking back after playing in nearly 1500 games, he seems like a disappointment.

Magglio Ordonez – DET (58.9 Runs Created, -0.5 Runs Saved = 58.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Another player in his decline phase – missed half the 2010 season.  Still hits when he’s in the lineup – and that near-league average defensive rating is a half-season accident.  He’s not that good.  Now 37, his career won’t long after he hits his 300th homer (he’s at 289).  I just got done calling Drew a minor bust.  Magglio hit 30 homers four times, cleared 100 RBIs seven times, and his career average is .312.  I’ll miss him when he’s gone.

Carlos Quentin – CHI (70.3 Runs Created, -13.5 Runs Saved = 56.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Still has prodigious power, is losing his range.  That being said, his 2010 season is exactly the kind of player he is.  He hits about .250 with good power and has a decent idea of the strike zone.  He is more like his 2010 season than his breakout 2008 season.  At 28, he is still young enough to have slightly better seasons, but I wouldn’t be counting on .270 as much as just hoping for it.

David DeJesus – KC (60.4 Runs Created, -7.1 Runs Saved = 53.3 Total Runs Productivity)

As a hitter, a poor man’s Carl Crawford.  Defensively, he plays well in left, but he was moved to right field in 2010.  Injured his thumb, requiring surgery, crashing into the wall at Yankee Stadium.  Will help the Oakland As next year, but is nearing the end of the peak phase of his career (31).  It may take a couple of months to find what little power he has, and isn’t in a park where he can hit homers anyway.

Matt Joyce – TB (42.1 Runs Created, 4.9 Runs Saved = 47.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Plays a lot of right field because Ben Zobrist will play everywhere else to give someone a day off.  Has some power, respects the strike zone, and is a solid defensive player.  He could start for a lot of teams and be an immediate improvement.

Ryan Sweeney – OAK (41.2 Runs Created, 3.9 Runs Saved = 45.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Chronic knee pain required season ending surgery on his right knee, but his left knee isn’t always 100% either.  A fourth outfielder type on a good team because he hits for a decent average, though with absolutely no power, can play both corner outfield positions well and, if necessary, won’t embarrass you in center – which reminds you of Greg Gross.  Could be a pinch hitter for another decade, or more.

Andruw Jones – CHI (45.0 Runs Created, -5.7 Runs Saved = 39.3 Total Runs Productivity)

An old version of Carlos Quentin.  I thought I would never write that, for sure.

2010 Top AL Left Fielders

Carl Crawford – TB (128.8 Runs Created, 13.1 Runs Saved = 141.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Which player had the better contract season, Crawford or Adrian Beltre?   Maybe it was Jose Bautista…  Did what he always does, only with a few more homers and triples.  Nobody compares them, but Crawford and Johnny Damon are extremely similar players.  Well – the Damon of a few years ago, anyway.

Josh Hamilton – TEX (131.5 Runs Created, 3.7 Runs Saved = 135.2 Total Runs Productivity)

Still played some center, but only because Julio Borbon isn’t that strong a hitter.  Who does he remind you of, as a hitter?  I can’t think of any modern player…  Al Simmons?  Goose Goslin?

Scott Podsednik – KC/LAD (77.6 Runs Created, 10.0 Runs Saved = 87.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Kind of like Juan Pierre, but with a touch more power and a bit more range.  Led the AL in hitting early on, earning a trip to a contender – that flopped upon his arrival.  Returns to the AL with Toronto in 2011.  Turns 35 in spring training, which should give you pause, but has retained his speed and skill thus far.  Alex Gordon got the spot after Podsednik left and proved he still isn’t a prospect.

Bobby Abreu, if he were a regular left fielder, would rank about here (85.2 Total Runs Productivity).

Juan Pierre – CHI (77.9 Runs Created, 3.1 Runs Saved = 81.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Still can run (68 stolen bases), still slaps singles but not at the rate he once did.  Unless he hits .310, he’s not that valuable, but he still gets 650 at bats because he has a great work ethic and people think his speed makes up for a complete lack of power and a bunch of ground outs.

Brett Gardner – NYY (73.2 Runs Created, 3.9 Runs Saved = 77.1 Total Runs Productivity)

A better leadoff hitter than Derek Jeter, and the best #9 hitter in baseball.  Gets on base, runs like the wind, and covers plenty of ground.  The new Brett Butler.  If he had 650 at bats rather than 450 (not that you can tell Jeter he’s batting ninth), would have created about 100 runs.  One day, he will.

Johnny Damon – DET (79.7 Runs Created, -3.0 Runs Saved = 76.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Heads to Tampa where he and/or Manny Ramirez will share the field and DH duties.  Not as mobile as he used to be as a myriad of leg injuries are sapping him of his old speed, but he’s still a quality bat.  Damon’s power, never great, is tolerable and he now works the count like a veteran who is losing his ability to catch up to a fastball.  Not sure how many years he has left and wouldn’t be surprised if his career runs out of steam.  29 hits from 2600.

Delmon Young – MIN (97.7 Runs Created, -25.0 Runs Saved = 72.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Took his batting and fielding to new levels – albeit in different directions.  Hit .298 with power, driving in 112 runs – by far his best season.  Also avoided fly balls at a career worst rate.  Hard to believe he’s really that bad in left, but he just doesn’t get to anything.

Juan Rivera – LAA (57.6 Runs Created, 12.1 Runs Saved = 69.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Decent hitter, average glove (don’t let the runs saved number fool you, it was his best season since 2006 and usually is a shade under league average).  Another guy moving to Toronto where he might explode for a year.

Brennan Boesch – DET (64.0 Runs Created, 4.0 Runs Saved = 68.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Played more in right field – nearly full time combined.  He’s got mid-range power, can cover some ground, a bit better eye than Ryan Raburn.  If nothing else, when the Tigers kept Damon or Ordonez as a DH, they had a young and mobile outfield.  Damon is gone now, so both Raburn and Boesch will get 550 at bats rather than 400.

Austin Kearns – CLE/NY (57.3 Runs Created, 8.8 Runs Saved = 66.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Saved what looked to be a dead career with a strong start as an unplanned outfielder in Cleveland and wound up an insurance extra outfielder for the Yankees.  Showed surprising range in the outfield and contributed by hitting for a little power and getting on base.  He hasn’t been consistently productive, but if he plays like he did in 2010, he’ll have a job for a few more years.  Heck, he probably got two years of contracts out of this season alone.

Ryan Raburn – DET (61.2 Runs Created, 1.8 Runs Saved = 63.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Played a lot of left, but also snuck innings in at second base (not badly), third, first, center, and right.  A decent hitter, too – sowed power and hit .280.  Will get more time in 2011 – might be worth a late look in your fantasy leagues.

Fourteen guys played left field for Oakland, led by Rajai Davis at 320.1 innings – but Davis also split time in center with Coco Crisp, leading the team in innings there, too.  Josh Willingham would appear to have the job in 2011 (62.7 Total Runs Productivity).  Willingham hits, plays hard, is a consumate professional, but with a stiff back is really not a good outfielder.

Trevor Crowe – CLE (49.0 Runs Created, 11.4 Runs Saved = 60.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Has speed, but will probably show little growth as a hitter since he’s already 27 and wasn’t a world beater in the minors, Crowe played more centerfield but was just a few innings from leading the Indians in time spent in left field as well.  At this point, he’s a much better defensive player than Grady Sizemore, but he needs to increase either his on base percentage or slugging percentage to be worth giving 1000 innings in the field.  He’s really a fifth outfielder at best.

Corey Patterson – BAL/OAK (52.7 Runs Created, 7.0 Runs Saved = 59.7 Total Runs Productivity)

An older version of Felix Pie with more power and a greater willingness to steal bases.

David Murphy – TEX (67.4 Runs Created, -7.9 Runs Saved = 59.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Would be the best fourth outfielder in baseball if he were more consistent in the field, but he never gets to play one position for a long period of time.  Valuable player.

Fred Lewis – TOR (60.6 Runs Created, -9.2 Runs Saved = 51.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Doesn’t hit for much power, doesn’t get on base enough, runs a little but not a ton.  Didn’t field his position well in 2010 (was slightly below average in 2008, slightly above in 2009).  Fourth outfielder at best.

Bill Hall – BOS (49.5 Runs Created, -2.5 Runs Saved = 47.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Valuable player, logging time at six positions and playing most of them pretty well.  With the current rosters lugging bigger pitching staffs, a guy like Hall is remarkably valuable.

Michael Saunders – SEA (35.7 Runs Created, 7.9 Runs Saved = 43.6 Total Runs Productivity)

A bit of power and decent range in the outfield made up for a low batting average – strikes out a lot.  Never had a GREAT year in the minors and I’d be hard pressed to believe he’s really a 20 homer guy.  I think he might improve – but that means .240 with 15 homers, which isn’t good enough.

Felix Pie – BAL (35.5 Runs Created, 6.4 Runs Saved = 41.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Mobile fielder, can play all three fields, ordinary hitter with no bonuses for on base percentage.  Once a prospect, now a servicable fourth outfielder.

Milton Bradley – SEA (29.1 Runs Created, 6.1 Runs Saved = 35.2 Total Runs Productivity)

If he’s got ANYTHING left, he’s way over due to show it.  Career may be in final tailspin and with his personal history, it’s not like people are going to bend over to give him an EXTRA chance.

Shelley Duncan – CLE (31.5 Runs Created, -3.0 Runs Saved = 28.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Got a chance because he has decent power and his dad is Dave Duncan.  Doesn’t do much else, though…  Low batting average, not much of a fielder.

Jeremy Hermida – BOS/OAK (17.4 Runs Created, 5.4 Runs Saved = 22.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Awkwardly effective in the outfield (runs fast, plays the ball well, but hates diving and walls), and a disappointing hitter – won’t be in the majors after next year, probably, unless he can turn himself into Jay Johnstone.  And Hermida’s not that funny.

Daniel Nava – BOS (19.8 Runs Created, -10.4 Runs Saved = 9.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Got the most innings when Jacoby Ellsbury went out with more maladies than a guest star on House.  Not that strong a hitter, for someone who is fast Nava didn’t look comfortable playing in Boston’s oddly shaped left field.

Top AL Left Fielders in 2009

Jason Bay (BOS):  Now a Met, I think the Red Sox are going to miss this guy.  Had a soft summer, but otherwise was solid.  Gets a bad rap for his defense, but last year I showed him as being 5.3 plays per 800 balls in play better than the average left fielder and worthy of a Gold Glove.  My system says Bay was one of the 20 most valuable position players in baseball.  The Red Sox will move Mike Cameron or Jacoby Ellsbury here – and will lose about 30 runs in total productivity from 2009 to 2010.   (109.0 Runs Created, 17.8 Runs Saved = 126.81 Total Run Production)

Carl Crawford (TB):  Good hitter, good fielder, as daring a baserunner as you can find.  Another top 20 player…   Here’s something to think about.  Is Carl Crawford potentially worthy of the Hall of Fame?  If he can stay healthy, he’d have 2500 career hits and maybe 600 or 700 stolen bases.  We put all sorts of power guys in the Hall, but how about a guy who can scoot, hit, and play solid defense?   (112.9 Runs Created, 12.5 Runs Saved = 125.36 Total Run Production)

Matt Holliday (OAK/STL):  Left town at the trading deadline – was as productive in two months in St. Louis as he was in four months in Oakland…  126.5 Runs Created, -13.4 Runs Saved = 113.1 Total Run Production)

We’ll get to Rajai Davis, your A’s current left fielder in few paragraphs…

Adam Lind (TOR):  Miscast as an outfielder, but is such a good hitter he has to play somewhere.  The best hitter at this position – Bay’s power and Crawford’s batting average.  (127.1 Runs Created, -15.3 Runs Saved = 111.78 Total Run Production)

David DeJesus (KC):  A Carl Crawford clone, but a shade less productive – still a valuable player.  Crawford hits .300, DeJesus about .280; Both are decent fielders with speed, but DeJesus isn’t a base stealer.  (80.9 Runs Created, 18.9 Runs Saved = 99.82 Total Run Production)

Denard Span, the Minnesota outfielder, if he were a regular left fielder would rate here.  Jason Kubel, too.  I’d love to see Kubel play left every day and let Jim Thome DH as much as possible.  The Twins would improve so much offensively…

Johnny Damon (NYY):  Now in Detroit, Damon is still a productive hitter as he moves into his late 30s…  His legs are getting in the way of his having solid range anymore and he can’t throw.  Somebody could use him as a DH and part time outfielder.  The new left fielder, Curtis Granderson, was barely two runs more productive than Damon, but since Granderson would be moving to an easier position, he might make up for it with a few more defensive runs.  (102.7 Runs Created, -12.3 Runs Saved = 90.38 Total Run Production)

Scott Podsednik (CWS):  Now a Royal, played 615 innings here and few hundred more in center…  Slapped a few hits, but doesn’t do much else.  Can steal a few bases.  The Royals hope he’ll be better than what they got for signing Coco Crisp…  (81.5 Runs Created, 4.7 Runs Saved, 86.24 Total Run Production)

Juan Rivera (LAA):  An above average player – hits for power and a decent average, isn’t hurting you in the field too much.  He’s better than Gary Matthews, for sure.  (84.0 Runs Created, -3.0 Runs Saved = 80.99 Total Run Production)

Rajai Davis (OAK):  He can run, he can field, he can throw a little.  Davis can hit .300, but he has little power.  If David DeJesus is a poor man’s Carl Crawford, Davis is a poor man’s David DeJesus with younger wheels.  Still – he’s an above average performer and with a full season’s at bats, might get 200 hits.  (69.1 Runs Created, 2.4 Runs Saved = 71.58 Total Run Production)

Juan Pierre, if he were to be ranked in the AL based on his Dodger stats, would rank here.  If the White Sox think he’s a centerfielder, they are grossly mistaken.  He’s a combination of Johnny Damon’s defense and Rajai Davis’s offense.

Ryan Rayburn (DET):  The Tigers used three people here for the most part (Rayburn, Carlos Guillen, and Josh Anderson) and Rayburn got the most innings.  Rayburn has some skills – hits for a nice average with power (.291 BA, .533 SLG, .360 OBP) and looks to have wheels in the outfield.  As such, I’d like to see him play more.  A full season of Rayburn at this rate would rank in the top five – assuming he can play at this pace for 150 games.  (50.7 Runs Created, 14.27 Runs Saved = 64.94 Total Run Production.

David Murphy (TEX): The new Juan Encarnacion.  (65.4 Runs Created, -1.1 Run Saved = 64.33 Total Run Production)

Nolan Reimold (BAL):  The rookie played great until getting injured in the late summer.  Reimold didn’t look comfortable as an outfielder but he got his hitting wheels down as the season rolled on…  As with Rayburn, I’d like to see what would happen if he got 500 at bats.  Felix Pie isn’t a bad option here, either.  (61.9 Runs Created, -5.2 Runs Saved = 56.70 Total Run Production)

Carlos Quentin (CWS):  It was only a half a season, but he was still marginally productive.  I hope he can get back to where he was in 2008 – the Sox need all the help they can get.  (50.9 Runs Created, -3.4 Runs Saved = 47.51 Total Run Production)

Delmon Young (MIN):  Delmon Young has done nothing to suggest he deserves a starting position on any roster.  Borderline power and batting average, poor fielder.  It’s time for the Twins to move on.  And, I would NEVER have made that trade with Tampa to get him and give up Jason Bartlett AND Matt Garza.  (50.1 Runs Created, -10.2 Runs Saved, 39.90 Total Run Production)

Five Unproductive Guys (SEA):  Wladimir Balentien, Bill Hall, Ryan Langerhans, Michael Saunders, and Endy Chavez all got between 175 and 350 innings here and nobody stands out.  All five guys were great defensively, oddly, but none of them could hit his way out of a paper sack.  Milton Bradley or Eric Byrnes will get the next shot here – and it HAS to be better than what they got last year.  At least Bradley can hit – and Byrnes has a great attitude.  Combined, they’d be a heck of a player.

Breathtaking! Twins Outlast Tigers… Let’s Play Three!

A game with too many twists and turns for even Quentin Tarantino, the Minnesota Twins survived and eventually prevailed, 6 – 5, over the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central and a trip to the playoffs where they hope not to be cannon fodder for the New York Yankees.

You had Miguel Cabrera, he of the scars and bruises, hitting a mammoth two-run homer to put the Tigers in front 3 – 0.  The Twins rallied back, however, to take a 4 – 3 lead on an Orlando Cabrera blast.  Has Orlando Cabrera had the greatest three week run of his life???  Then, another disappointing Tiger, Magglio Ordonez ties the game with a homer of his own – something that had been missing from his 2009 season.  You had Joe Nathan getting out of a ninth inning jam by allowing a crushing liner that shortstop Nick Punto nabbed and turned into a inning ending doubleplay.  The Tigers got the lead in the tenth, but the Twins got a stadium boosted triple from Michael Cuddyer and a seeing-eye single to tie the score.  Alexi Casilla looked to be in place to score the winning run in the tenth, but he was gunned down by Ryan Rayburn on an inning-ending double play, erasing a potential sacrifice fly that would have won the game.  Then, the Tigers got runners to second and third in the top of the 12th inning, eventually loading the bases with just one out – and STILL couldn’t score.  Of course, the Twins got a break, too – a Bobby Keppel pitch grazed Brandon Inge and hit his jersey, but the ump didn’t award Inge a HBP – which would have scored a run and possibly created an explosion of runs.  However, Inge grounded into a force play.  At one point in the top of the twelfth, Chip Caray noted, “If the Twins get out of this inning, they truly are the team of destiny…” – and the Twins got out of that inning.  Finally, Casilla knocked in Chris Gomez with a bounder to right scoring the winning run in the bottom of the twelfth to win it.

Breathtaking!

Today, you have Philadelphia hosting Colorado, Minnesota visits New York, and the Dodgers hosting the Cardinals to open the playoffs.  The Angels host Boston tomorrow night.

Playoff Notes…

Yankee catcher Jorge Posada won’t catch A.J. Burnett – it’ll be Jose Molina.  Burnett has pitched better with Molina behind the plate, but Posada still feels snubbed.  [ESPN]

Rockies pitcher Jorge De La Rosa won’t pitch against Philadelphia, nursing a sore groin.  [ESPN]

Phillies reliever J.C. Romero will have surgery on a flexor tendon in his throwing forearm and is out four to six months.  [ESPN]

Other News…

Fredi Gonzalez will keep his job managing the Marlins, despite interviews of Bobby Valentine.  Pitching coach Mark Wiley, however, will get another role in the organization.

Major League owners approved the sale of the Chicago Cubs to Tom Ricketts and family for a cool $845 million.  The Tribune Company paid $20.5 million to buy it from the Wrigley family back in 1981.

In addition to picking up Freddy Garcia’s option, the White Sox picked up the option on reliever Scott Thornton, who had been solid as a setup man in 2009.

Agree or Disagree? Kevin Blackistone believes that Curt Flood belongs in the Hall of Fame for his contributions beyond those on the field – such as challenging the reserve clause when traded from the Cardinals to the Phillies.  I’m not sure he deserves a plaque, or that the Hall of Fame is a place for this, but Flood’s role in emancipating players was certainly immense.

Happy  Birthday! Evan Longoria turns 24 today.  The future is bright, indeed!  Others with birthdays today include:  Moses Fleetwood Walker, a black catcher in the majors before Cap Anson and others wouldn’t play against him establishing the color line (1856), Hall of Famer Chuck Klein (1904), Frankie Baumholtz (1918), Charlie Fox (1921), Grady Hatton (1922), Jose Cardenal (1943), Rudy Law (1956), Milt Cuyler (1968).

My grandmother used to be a huge Jose Cardenal fan (as was I).  She liked that when he ran his hat always fell off – I mean, he had a big head of hair!!!  Me – I loved that he was a bit of a hot dog, but for a couple of years in Chicago, he hit and ran and kept Jack Brickhouse smiling.

Sandberg Speaks Sosa; Cleveland Losing (W)Edge?

Ryne Sandberg says Sammy Sosa won’t be elected to the Hall of Fame because sportswriters are taking a stand against steroids.  Sandberg noted that the description of a Hall of Famer includes the word “integrity” (even in the logo) and people in general seem to be taking the same position on steroids.  Even as he noted that he didn’t think Sosa belonged in the Hall, Sandberg admitted that Sosa did have a great work ethic, and thought that the added muscle was due to offseason workouts when they were teammates from 1993 and 1997.  

Let’s face it; that’s what is problematic about this.  Nobody doubts that Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire weren’t putting in time in the gym.  Ultimately, it’s disappointing that these guys (and many others like them) chose to break federal laws in acquiring substances that otherwise couldn’t (or shouldn’t) be obtained without prescriptions and valid reasons for having them.

Is Wedge Next Manager to Go?

Cleveland manager Eric Wedge is hearing it from Cleveland fans who now wonder aloud if he will be fired.  Meanwhile, Bud Shaw of the Cleveland Plain Dealer thinks that fans calling for the return of Mike Hargrove may wind up equally disappointed

What Should Detroit Do With Magglio Ordonez?

Fox Sports baseball reporter Ken Rosenthal thinks the Tigers should drop Magglio Ordonez before he gets enough plate appearances to vest an $18 million dollar contract extension.

Let’s see if we can’t look at this pragmatically. First, Ordonez is now a year and a half removed from that .363 season which was miles above what he normally hits (and he’s a good hitter).  So, this year’s slump could be, in part, an evening of fortune for hitting so well in 2007.  I mean, Mike Lowell, who always struck me as one of the most consistent players I have ever seen, has had a season where he hit .236 and another where he hit .324. 

Second of all, there has been a consistent decline in Ordonez’s outfield play.  In 2006, he was about 4 plays below average in right field per 800 balls in play, costing his team about 13 runs.  In 2007, it was five plays per 800 balls in play.  Last year, he was – 12, which likely cost his team almost 33 runs because of all those extra hits falling in out there.  When you add up the offensive production (about 101.4 runs) and his lack of defensive range (-32.6 runs), I have him as the 20th best right fielder among those playing at least 80 games there in 2008.  Fourteen were better hitters, and then you have his fielding problems.

Finally, Maggs is 35 – which is young to me, but not in baseball years.  It might be that his legs aren’t beneath him anymore, either. I haven’t gotten to the letter “M” in my player profiles, but having looked at it, Ordonez would have been a serious candidate for a season of decline – probably hitting more like .270 with 15 homers.  Assuming he hits his career norm for the second half of the season (about .310 with 12 homers), he’d finish right about where my prediction hits.  And, he’s really best suited to be a DH at this point in his career.  Is that the type of production you’d want to pay $18 million for?  So, when you do the math, I reach the same conclusion as Rosenthal – but hopefully without any unnecessary meanness of spirit.

On the injury beat… 

Brandon Webb may not pitch for Arizona this year.  Webb is about 35 runs better than the average pitcher over 230 innings – one of the best in the game. To lose him and replace him with someone in AAA, who likely won’t be league average, is probably a 50 run hit to the runs allowed column, turning a team that could have finished with 75 wins into a team that could easily win more like 65 wins – which is what the Diamondbacks are pacing for. Ouch. 

And, Josh Hamilton is less and less likely going to be ready to play by the All-star game.  I remember thinking that when they announced his surgery. 

Let’s get some good news.  Roy Halliday will likely pitch Monday against the Rays in Toronto.  To their credit, the Blue Jays have played well over the last two weeks, given all the injuries to the pitching staff. 

Hurry Back!  Phillies reliever Clay Condrey – 15-day DL with a left oblique strain.  Brad Lidge will get his slot on the roster.  Brewer pitcher Dave Bush gets seven days off in AAA for right arm fatigue.  Cincinnati catcher Wilkin Castillo goes to the DL with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder.  And, Arizona loses catcher Chris Snyder to a lower back strain. 

Welcome Back!  Cleveland’s Grady Sizemore, San Diego’s Scott Hairston, and Cincinnati’s Joey Votto, who says that depression following the death of his father last August has contributed to serious panic attacks and anxiety.  As someone who deals with anxiety on a regular basis, I can definitely relate to that.  Hang in there, Joey.

Breathless!

Working late, I had the Chicago Cubs – Detroit Tigers game on.  If you want to know why I am a baseball fan, you needed to watch this game.

First, you had two solid starting pitching efforts from Edwin Jackson, who throws HARD, and Carlos Zambrano – one of the truly great horses in baseball.

In the bottom of the seventh, with the Cubs leading 2 – 1, Brandon Inge takes Zambrano deep for a two-run homer to take the lead.  What is especially cool about this is that Inge had spent the day at a local hospital hanging out with kids and signing autographs.  At one point, he’s mingling with a kid named Tommy Schumacher, and Inge tells Tommy that he’s tired of signing autographs; he wants one.  So, Tommy takes a marker and writes his first name on Inge’s right forearm.  When Inge is batting early in the game, you can see Tommy’s autograph clearly and the broadcasters mention it.  Cool stuff!

Not done, though.  In the eighth, in comes Joel Zumaya.  Zumaya is probably the hardest thrower in the game.  Against Milton Bradley, he throws four straight pitches that MLB’s PitchFX data shows ranging from 101 to 103 MPH.  The TV Radar actually read 104 (!) on the gun with the last strike.  Bradley started his swing as the ball was being thrown around the horn.  Anyway, with a runner on, Zumaya tried to sneak a change up past Micah Hoffpauir, but Hoffpauir turned it around for a lead-changing two run homer.

STILL not over.  Kevin Gregg, who had been on a good roll, comes in to close the game out for the Cubs in the bottom of the ninth, but Ryan Rayburn hits a pinch hit two run homer to win it.  It was the first PH game-winning homer by a Detroit batter in the 9th inning since Lou Whitaker did it in 1995!  A BREATHTAKING game!