A Day for Propsects and, um… Streaking?

Two of baseball’s top prospects are at the top of the news today – which makes it fun for the baseball junkies like me.

Mike Trout is back.  The Angels released the struggling (and, sadly, aging) Bobby Abreu and brought back talented outfielder Mike Trout.  Trout will be batting lead-off tonight.

A full and decent season would have put Abreu in the neighborhood of 2500 hits and possibly 300 homers and 400 stolen bases.  He’s been a great player for a lot of seasons – but I wonder if he’ll get consideration for the hall of fame.  Something to write about tomorrow, maybe.

Trout wasn’t horrible in 40 games last season, but he’s been amazing in the minors, including a .403 clip at Salt Lake City this April.  He’s developed patience at the plate, has well above average speed and range, and a bit of power.  He could the next Bobby Abreu with better defensive skills.

And, Bryce Harper will make his debut for the Washington Nationals tonight.  Harper was called up because third baseman Ryan Zimmerman was placed on the DL with a right shoulder injury (inflammation).  Harper was hitting .250 with AAA Syracuse and is, depending on the source, the top prospect in all of baseball.  He’ll start in left field for the Nationals.

The Nationals also got a scare last night when Chad Tracy took a Kenley Jansen pitch on his right wrist – but fortunately has just a bone bruise.

The Crime Blotter…
The Detroit Tigers placed outfielder Delmon Young on the restricted list after Young was arraigned on hate crime charges following a fight outside his hotel during which police reported that he yelled anti-Semitic epithets at the people he was fighting.  Young was also inebriated at the time.

Young has offered an apology to the team and fans, but said nothing regarding his plight specifically.

Danny Worth returns from AAA Toledo to take Young’s roster spot.

Beware the Streaking Panda!

Pablo Sandoval continues his consecutive game hitting streak, now twenty games, to the start the season.  It’s the longest such streak since Steve Garvey opened 1978 with hits in 21 straight games.  The MLB site lists George Sisler as having the longest such streak at 34 games, but apparently that list starts with 1901…  Willie Keeler opened the 1897 season with a streak that went 44 games.

Speaking of Streaking – Beware the Umpire…

Jeff Kellogg didn’t realize that the job description for being a home plate umpire included capturing streakers, but in Baltimore his blind-side shot helped bring a man to justice.  Suffice it to say, the streaker was out at home.

Hurry Back!

Jeremy Guthrie heads to the 15-Day DL with a minor shoulder injury suffered when he got in an accident riding his bike to Coors Field on Friday.  Guillermo Moscoso will take Guthrie’s spot in the Colorado Rockies rotation.  An MRI suggests no structural damage, so he just needs time to heal from the bumps and bruises.

Brad Lidge went on the 15-Day DL with a strained abdominal wall, which means Ryan Perry becomes a member of the Washington Nationals bullpen.  Lidge said he’s had the pain a couple of days but reared its ugly head (belly?) during a bullpen session.

Dodgers reliever Javy Guerra has checked out and may be allowed to pitch this weekend – which is remarkable considering he took a line drive off his jaw on Wednesday night.  Brian McCann returned a pitch that caromed off the right side of Guerra’s jaw – and never knocked the kid down.  That’s a tough kid!

Manager Don Mattingly said that Guerra’s jaw held up, but Guerra’s knee and foot are sore from twisting to get out of the way and absorbing the shot.  If you missed it, check out the related video on the link…

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating with cards, cake, and remembrances include:

(1902) Charles “Red” Lucas
(1919) Charlie Metro
(1925) Clarence “Cuddles” Marshall
(1934) Jackie Brandt
(1935) Pedro Ramos
(1960) John Cerutti
(1960) Tom Browning
(1964) Barry Larkin
(1986) Dillon Gee

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2011 Season Forecast: Detroit Tigers

Last Five Seasons:

2010:  81 – 81
2009:  86 – 77
2008:  74 – 88
2007:  88 – 74
2006:  95 – 67

Has it been that long since Kenny Rogers was doctoring baseballs in the World Series?

More to the current team – last year the Tigers were 52 – 29 at home, and 29 – 52 on the road, with comparable splits in terms of runs scored/allowed.  The Tigers were +82 in runs at home, and – 74 in runs on the road.

Runs Scored: 751  (8th in the AL)
Runs Allowed: 743  (10th in the AL)

You’d think that a team that was below average in offense and defense would have a record slightly below .500, but the Tigers held on for dear life to stay at .500.

Season Recap:

The Tigers were picked by many to compete for the AL Central crown, but most people had them second or third.  After a reasonably good April, the Tigers gave back games in May, won a few more than they lost in June, and then just kind of stayed just off the fringe of the race until August.  By then, they had lost Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen.  The Scott Sizemore experiment was a disaster, which didn’t help, and despite the best efforts of Miguel Cabrera, the offense couldn’t deliver down the stretch.

The Tigers were a team that got on rolls – good and bad.  They would win a bunch of games and make a run to the top.  Five of six off the start, six in a row in early May, eight of nine against Pittsburgh, Washington and Arizona (I mean – WOW – Detroit had an easy interleague schedule) to move to 37 – 29.  The fourth streak, in early July, put the Tigers at 48 – 37 one day before the All-Star break.  Unfortunately, the Tigers lost all momentum – losing seven in a row and 20 of 25 to fall out of the race by early August.  Toward the end of the season, Detroit rattled off eight wins in nine games to get to 80 – 75, but lost six in a row and had to win the last game of the season to get to .500.

Starters:

Justin Verlander is a legitimate ace, saving his team 20 runs over league average pitching and winning 67% of his decisions.  Max Scherzer, acquired from Arizona, is a solid #2 starter and was a start away from 200 innings, which he should make in 2011.  Rick Porcello wasn’t as good as hoped, but there are things to build on.  Armando Galarraga, he of the perfect game that wasn’t, was a moderately below average pitcher in part because he, like Porcello, pitches too much to contact and doesn’t miss bats with pitches.  Jeremy Bonderman made a comeback season, but in a painful way – an ERA of 5.53 pitching in a decent pitcher’s park and with a reasonably good defense behind him – he was 32 runs worse than an average starter of his 171 innings.  An extra run a start.  Ouch.  Two others made a few starts, Dontrelle Willis – who is gone – and Andrew Oliver, who should be back in AAA.

Looking ahead, Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello return, to be joined by reliever Phil Coke – a decent middle reliever – and former quality starter, Brad Penny.  I’ve always been a fan of Penny’s (works very fast, throws strikes), but I don’t know if his body can handle the load.  He’s turning into Rick Reuschel, which can’t be good either.  However, he’s a better bet to be successful than Jeremy Bonderman.  The problem may be finding a sixth starter option.

Relievers:

The bullpen is led by closer Jose Valverde, a very good finisher, and imported setup man, Joaquin Benoit – a shut down 8th inning option.  After that, Joel Zumaya is still around (albeit a chance to get injured), and a few others are there to mop up, including Daniel Schlereth (a decent enough lefty with gobs of upside), Ryan Perry, and Brad Thomas or Eddie Bonine.

Catching:

Alex Avila earned the job full time, and his backup will be DH Victor Martinez.  Avila has tolerable defensive skills, but needs to step up some with the batting average – which would start with striking out less.

Infield:

Miguel Cabrera is arguably the best hitter in baseball, and last year seemed to have beaten whatever demons befell him at the end of 2009.  Of course, he blew that heading to spring training, but he should still be able to hit the ball in 2011.  The Tigers missed Placido Polanco, a solid defensive player who chipped in by hitting around .300.  Last year, Scott Sizemore earned a shot, but gave it away by showing less than acceptable range and hitting .224 and striking out about 28% of the time.  Carlos Guillen played a little at second before his body gave way and Will Rhymes took over.  In the minors, Rhymes was never Sizemore’s equal in terms of being a prospect, but at the majors, Rhymes was a better fielder and hitter. Looking ahead, the same three guys are back – and someone will have to back up Guillen when he breaks down in June or July.  (Look, I like Guillen, but this is what happens when you get old.  If he plays 140 games, the Tigers will benefit greatly, but I don’t know that he can do it.)  Jhonny Peralta returns to play short for the full year – not a solid defender anymore but can still put some runs on the board.  Brandon Inge returns to play third base – fielding well, hitting a few homers, but otherwise being an ordinary player.

Looking at this, the problem is that the front four are (a) on the down side of their career, or (b) trying to age faster than he has to by adding weight and drinking heavily.  This can’t be a good sign if you are a Tigers fan.

Outfield:

Austin Jackson was fantastic last year – a lot of hits, decent defense, and flashes of brilliant speed (10 triples, 27 stolen bases).  He is among the best centerfielders in the AL.  Right fielder Magglio Ordonez is getting long in the tooth, still can hit, but his defense is problematic.  And he can’t DH as much as you’d want because Victor Martinez was brought in to be the DH.  In left, either Ryan Raburn or Brennan Boesch, who are essentially the same player, will get to play.  Raburn is marginally better – higher average, slightly better glove – but you wouldn’t complain (as a pitcher) if your outfield were Raburn, Jackson, and Boesch.

DH:

Did I mention that Victor Martinez was brought in to be the DH?  He replaces Johnny Damon, who heads to Tampa because everyone from the east heads to Florida to retire.  Martinez should contribute more than Damon, but not a TON more.  Martinez played in Boston and generated about 83.4 runs of offense, while Damon played in Detroit and generated 79.7 runs.

Down on the Farm:

Alfredo Figaro looked like the best pitching prospect at AAA Toledo, but even with a decent W/L record and K/W data, his ERA was the same as the team average and when he got a cup of coffee with the big club, he was treated rudely by batters.  The best hitters are on the Tigers – Scott Sizemore and Will Rhymes.  Not a lot of immediate help here…

Heading to AA Erie, the most interesting person there might be outfielder Brandon Douglas.  He has NO power.  None.  What he has is amazing contact skills and has hit .331 in his several stops in the minors.  I can’t tell how good a fielder he is – he’s bounced around between second and short, which means he’s a second baseman in the bigs.  If he’s ANY good at all, in a year or two he could be the next Placido Polanco.

Another guy who could be interesting is pitcher Adam Wilk.  Wilk made 14 starts in low A ball after coming out of Long Beach State and struck out 67 and walked just seven batters.  He had comparable numbers at A+ Lakeland (100Ks, 19 walks in 24 starts), and then slid into AA for three starts – and all were successful.  He’s not making the Tigers in 2011, but he COULD make the team in 2012 and be a good fourth or third starter.

Last year’s #1 pick Jacob Turner did what you wanted to see in his first year of professional ball, and will likely start 2011 in A+ Lakeland before moving to Erie mid-season.  Second round pick Andrew Oliver is moving quickly through the system and was given a cup of coffee in 2010 with the parent club.

Season Forecast:

I’m not convinced that Detroit will compete.  Inge, Guillen, Peralta, and even Cabrera are candidates to regress from 2010.  That could be 20 runs defensively and 40 runs offensively.  The outfield will stay the same – the gains in center field and possibly left are offset by the potential losses in right field.  Then you get to the pitching staff, and I don’t see how Coke is better than Galarraga and even though Penny is better than Bonderman – how many starts will that be?  10?  20?  30?  The sixth starter option doesn’t appeal to me – so if it’s 10, the pitching won’t be much better in 2011 than it was last year.

Given this, I think the Tigers will score about 720 runs and allow about 760, which is about 77 wins.  It’s not too unreasonable to think it could be worse, especially if Cabrera misses a significant amount of time or plays below the level we are used to seeing.  This team could injure it’s way out and suffer through six months that were as bad as the Tigers were in July and August.  That’s a 70 – 90 team.

Where can you find optimism?  Brad Penny making 30 starts, Rick Porcello getting a bit better, Guillen and Ordonez not only maintaining batting skills but playing 130 games each, and Ryan Raburn bouncing up in his numbers.  If ALL those things happened, the Tigers could win 85 games.  I just think that’s a lot to ask for.

Mitre is Number 5 for Yankees; More Cubs Taking Time Off to Injury

With Chien-Ming Wang on the DL, the Yankees will audition Sergio Mitre in the number five spot of the rotation.  Manager Joe Girardi knows Mitre well – Mitre pitched for him in Florida back in 2006.  Mitre had a good May and June that year, but fell off after that.  He’s been injured – and then missed 50 games this year after testing positive for androstenedione.  The 28 year old pitched well in three minor league stops, but has never had any extended period of success in the majors.  At this point, one wonders why the Yankees insist on not using Phil Hughes – though Hughes has been successful in the eighth innings as Mariano Rivera’s caddy.  [FoxSports]

Detroit reliever Joel Zumaya returns to the DL with an injured shoulder, suffered in last night’s loss to the Yankees.  [SI]  Ryan Perry gets the nod from AAA Toledo.

Milwaukee slugger Ryan Braun is day to day with a wrist and thumb injury.  He left last night’s game saying he couldn’t grip the bat.  [MLB]

Cub starter Ted Lilly will miss today’s start against Washington due to a sore knee.  Randy Wells moves up a day, and Kevin Hart will pitch tomorrow.  [SI]

Lilly’s teammate, the struggling Alfonso Soriano, will miss a few days (at least) with a dislocated pinky.  He says he hurt it diving into first base on a pickoff play.  [SI]

Is Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez done?  Texas released him from his minor league contract. [FoxSports

The injury riddled career of Reds reliever Mike Lincoln hit another bump…  Lincoln will have surgery to replace a disc in his neck.  [FoxSports]