Chasing Pete Rose

In honor of Ichiro Suzuki getting his 4000th hit in his professional career – and Pete Rose reminding everyone that those hits in Japan shouldn’t count, I thought I’d see who was chasing Rose by age group and determine if anyone had a chance to catch him.

Before I do, though, let’s remind Rose that Ichiro didn’t start playing in the US until his was 27 and when he got here he was already a dominant hitter (.350, 242 hits).  Had he come to the US when he was younger, he likely would have had at least five additional years of 200 hits or so – which means he might already have 3700 hits in the US and a legitimate shot at having more hits than Rose.

But that’s no matter…

Let’s do this by age as the oldest active hitter right now is Jason Giambi. Giambi leads all 42 year olds in hits with 1968 coming into the season and is a threat to make it to 2000, but not much further.  #2 on this list is Brian Giles, who hasn’t played in forever…

(41)  The leaders at 41 are all in the clubhouse – literally.  Pudge Rodriguez had 2844 hits, followed by Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, and Garret Anderson.  The active leader in this group is Andy Pettitte, with 27.

(40)  Like 42, this is not a prolific hitting group, led by the long-retired Shawn Green at 2003.

(39)  The first age with a challenger – Derek Jeter.  Jeter was making progress until this year, where he has but four hits.  He needed another year of around 200.  At 3308, he needs about 950 hits to catch Rose, which means playing well until he is at least 45.  That’s not likely.  He could finish in the top five, though.  Suzuki is on this list – 2722 as of this week.

(38)  Vlad Guerrero leads people at 38 with 2590, but he is done (sadly).  Bengie Molina is the active leader, assuming he still has a job at the end of the year.

(37)  Alex Rodriguez opened the year with 2901, and then sat most of it out.  He would likely have cleared 3000, and even if he played long enough to fulfill his contract, I don’t see him getting the additional 1300 hits he’s going to need to catch Rose.  He’d have to play until he is 47, which is chemically possible.

Paul Konerko and Torii Hunter are the other active leaders, but neither would be expected to make it to 2500, much less 3000. David Ortiz and Lance Berkman might make it to 2000 – Ortiz could make it by the end of the year with a hot streak, and push toward 2500 before it’s over.

(36)  Michael Young leads the group, with Carlos Beltran behind him.  Young looked like a candidate to make a run for 3000 at one point, but now looks like he might run out of gas without making 2500.  Beltran’s knees may betray him before he makes 2500, too.

(35)  The leader in the clubhouse is Juan Pierre, but it’s going to be tough to make it to 3000 (he has about 800 to go) as a fourth outfielder.  Aramis Ramirez will make a run toward about 2400 before it ends.

(34)  Adrian Beltre will finish 2013 with about 2400 hits.  He looks to be on a good roll, but he’s reached the age at which, well, age matters.  I think he may finish with the same number of hits as George Brett.  Jimmy Rollins has closed in on 2200, but he isn’t going to make it to 3000 without finding the foutain of youth.

(33)  Albert Pujols dominates this age group, but the last two years, including an injury-plagued 2013, have slowed his pace.  He’s less than 700 hits from 3000, which still seams easily within reach, but going deep in the 3000s no longer seems probable.  Matt Holiday passed Mark Teixeira this year, but he still needs about 300 to get to 2000 and will make a run at 3000, but not without staying healthy and productive for at least six more years.

(32)  To have a shot at 4000 hits, someone who is 32 should already be well past 2000 hits.  Alex Rios leads this group and will finish the year with more than 1500 hits.  He’ll make it to 2000, but he won’t make 2500.

(31)  The leader at this age group, Carl Crawford, seemed on his way after, say, 2009.  He has lost his momentum, though, and may be hard pressed to turn what will be about 1800 hits to 3000.  Adrian Gonzalez is on this list – pushing 1500, but hard pressed to make much more than 2500.

(30)  Miguel Cabrera dominates this age group – he will finish 2013 around 2000 hits.  I don’t see him averaging 200 hits a year until he’s 40, but he could average 160 hits a year for that long.  That means he needs to play two or three more years beyond 40 to get to 4000 hits.  Obviously this is conjecture, but Cabrera is the only guy with even a SMALL chance of competing with Pete Rose, but you never know.  I’m rooting for him.

The rest of the 30s, including Jose Reyes, Robinson Cano, and David Wright, will push 2500, but not much more.  Reyes may not stay healthy enough to make 2000…

(29)  Leading this group are Nick Markakis, Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun, all between 1300 and 1400 hits.  None of these will make 3000 hits, much less 4000.

(28)  You’d think you might have a bunch of hitters with well over 1200 hits here, but you have one – Ryan Zimmerman.  None of the really good hitters in this age group (Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki) started the year over 1000 – or can stay healthy.

(27)  Billy Butler passed 1000 this year and is rolling past 1100 now.  Adam Jones is making a run at 1000 by the end of the season.  After that, nobody has made any real progress.  Those are the only two making any run at 2000 hits – and will be hard pressed to make 2500.

(26)  The top bat in this group will likely be Andrew McCutchen, who will finish the year north of 800.  Ten years of 170 hits would be 2500, and he’d have some time to make 3000.  Austin Jackson might make 2000, as could Pablo Sandoval, if he becomes a DH.

(25)  Nobody is challenging Justin Upton, who will be short of 800 hits by the end of the season.  I thought he had the best chance to have statistics that looked like Hank Aaron going into 2012, but he hasn’t taken that next step forward.  If he gets going, he could make 3000.  If not, he might not make 2000 and that would be sad.

(24)  The early leader is Elvis Andrus, who will be around 800 at the end of 2013.  That’s where you need to be at this point – pushing that first 1000 at the end of your age 25 season.  His glove will keep him around and he seems to be making marginal progress every year.  He needs to stay at the top of the lineup to get the at bats, but he is best poised for 3000 hits of the younger players.

(23)  Starlin Castro is having an off year in 2013, but will still finish the year around 700 hits.  Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton are on this list – but already a couple of hundred hits off Castro’s pace.  The other young hitters are just getting started.  Castro is the one to watch.  If he can start rattling off hits for the next seven years, he could be well on the way to a big number.

(22)  Heading into this season, there were no players with any active history.  That doesn’t bode bell for someone running far beyond 2000 hits.

(21)  Mike Trout – 209 hits heading into the season, 400 hits at the end of the season.  That’s the kind of start that suggests a big number in the future – we can check in ten years and see what is happening…

(20)  Bryce Harper and Manny Machado – both are capable and just getting started.

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Let the Goofy Cliches Begin

A.J. Pierzynski, repeating something I had heard earlier on ESPN Radio (Jonathan Coachman), who was probably quoting A.J. anyway, said that he wanted to bat in front of Prince Fielder because Fielder provided the best protection of any batter in history.  In 2011, Fielder batted behind NL MVP Ryan Braun.  This year, Fielder batted behind AL Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera.

That’s some compliment, huh?

In 2011, Ryan Braun hit .332 with 33 homers and 111 RBIs.  Without Fielder, his triple crown stats were 41 – 112 – .319.  I guess you might lose 13 points in batting average if Fielder left town…  Granted, Braun had 15 intentional walks, as opposed to 2 the previous season.  However, he struck out a lot more – 128 to 93 this past season, and his walk count actually dropped if you compare unintentional passes (61 – 48).  If Fielder is no longer protecting Braun, why did pitchers seem to challenge him more?

Then you have the statistics of Cabrera.  He may have won the triple crown, but if you compare the two seasons, the big difference was in walks – he walked 108 times before Fielder, but only 66 times in 2012 with Fielder providing protection.  And, while he hit more homers (in part because he hit more fly balls than in 2011), Cabrera’s batting average fell from .344 to .330, and his OBP and OPS fell off a lot.

By the way, Cabrera has had plenty of great seasons as a hitter.  In Florida, with nobody NEAR as good as Cabrera in the lineup, he once hit .339 smacking 50 doubles and having a higher OBP and a near match in OPS.

Fielder is just another really good bat in the lineup.  He extends the power core of a team.  But Ryan Braun is a great hitter, no matter where he plays and who bats around him.  And Miguel Cabrera is going to the Hall of Fame as a hitter, no matter who bats behind him.

Easter, Fister, and “When is a Suspension Not a Suspension…”

The Tigers got four homers from their big cats, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, but took a hit as well.  Doug Fister left the game in the fourth inning with a left costrochondral strain (he hurts in his ribs), placing the Detroit pitcher on the DL.  Joining the Tigers will be Brayan Villarreal, a young arm who has a fan in Jim Leyland and impressed the team in spring training.

Villarreal is a reliever, though, so look for Duane “Look Out” Below to get the next two starts.  [MLB]

Liam Hendricks, Twins starter, missed his start and may not be able to fly home with the team as he remains in a Baltimore hospital with a case of food poisoning. [FoxSports]

In a story that makes you wonder if he’s really going to get suspended…  Ubaldo Jimenez plans to drop his appeal of a five-day suspension handed to him for deliberately throwing at Troy Tulowitski in a spring training game.  The team backed his original appeal to get Ubaldo a start, and then pulled it because an off day in the schedule means that Jimenez can miss five days but not miss a turn in the rotation.

Maybe the league can extend his suspension to at least seven days so that he misses that turn.  [ESPN]

Keeping with the expectations given to Ozzie Guillen, Guillen is apologizing for telling a Time Magazine reporter, “I respect Fidel Castro.  You know why?  A lot of people have wanted to kill Fidel Castro for the last 60 years, but that mother(expletive) is still there.”  Guillen, no stranger to putting his foot in his mouth, admitted that when he first read it he thought he was going to get in trouble for it.

Guillen later explained that his respect for Castro has nothing to do with Castro’s politics or human rights history.  “The reason I say I admire him,” says Guillen,”is because a lot of people want to get rid of this guy and they couldn’t yet.”

You have to like how Ozzie is trying to appeal to the large Cuban community that supports the Marlins. [FoxSports]

Best wishes go out to Bob Uecker and his family.  Uecker’s son, Steve, died of Valley Fever – it happens when a fungus that enters the body through the lungs – one day short of his 53rd birthday on Friday.  [MLB]

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating with cake, cards, and remembrances on this Easter Sunday include:

(1878) Clarence “Pop” Foster
(1915) Kirby Higbe
(1934) Turk Ferrell
(1943) John Hiller
(1946) Jim “Catfish” Hunter
(1954) Gary Carter
(1973) Alex Gonzalez
(1979) Jeremy Guthrie
(1983) Chris Ianetta
(1986) Carlos Santana
(1986) Felix Hernandez
(1987) Jeremy Hellickson
(1987) Yonder Alonso

This might be the best pitching rotation of any birthday date…  And, they’d be pitching to The Kid.  I’ll take my chances with this group.

My niece, Kayla, is also celebrating a birthday today…  Happy Birthday to the little girl who was the first grandchild for my parents!

Can you make a competitive team with your pick of the remaining free agents?

I was flipping through the list of remaining free agents (as of 1/16/2012) and tried to field the best team possible with those players still available.  Here’s what you can do…

Catcher:

The best hitting catcher is probably Ramon Castro, who I see as a DH but can catch some.  You have a couple of receivers with good defensive skills but a limited offensive outlook (Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Varitek) and a couple of catchers who have recently been regulars (Chris Snyder, Ronny Paulino).  If you took Castro and Rodriguez, at least you’d have someone who could work with the pitchers and throw, and you’d have a decent enough backup who could help put a few runs on the board.

First Baseman:

With Prince Fielder still available, you have the centerpiece of an offense – but you still have some competent backups.  Casey Kotchman seems to have found his hitting stroke, and Carlos Pena could help in a platoon role (can’t hit lefties, though).  If you weren’t willing to pony up $20 million per year for Fielder, a platoon of Pena and Derrek Lee might give you depth and a solid platoon.

Second Baseman:

Not a lot to choose from here…  The best player is probably Carlos Guillen, but he’s only going to play 40 games (not to be mean here, but his injury history is becoming problematic).  That leaves you with someone who can, at best, not embarrass you with the glove – Jeff Keppinger, for example – and even play a couple of positions since you may need some flexibility.

Third Baseman:

If you thought the pickings were thin at second, it’s even thinner at third base now.  Casey Blake has had a couple of good years, and Wilson Betemit can swing the bat.  After that, it’s guys who used to be able to play some (Eric Chavez, Alex Cora, Omar Vizquel).

Shortstop:

Three guys who can’t really cover the position anymore – Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, and Miguel Tejada.  The best overall option is probably Cabrera – or letting him play second and moving Keppinger over to play short.

Outfielders:

There are still a few players here who could contribute, but most of these guys are past prime players and few have the wheels to cover center.  However, Johnny Damon could still play left, Cody Ross can play right or center (though he’s running out of years he’ll be able to cover center).  Kosuke Fukudome is a fantastic right fielder and can still bat leadoff.  Behind that you have a couple of guys who could be good fourth outfielders and pinch hitting types – Jonny Gomes, Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre.  If you needed a defensive guy, Joey Gathright is there.  And, if you want to take a real chance, you could go for Yoenis Cespedes.

A lineup as listed below would score some runs, and probably fight the defense to a draw.

Fukudome – RF
Damon – LF
Guillen – 2B
Fielder – 1B
Castro – C
Ross – CF
Blake – 3B
Keppinger – SS
(Pitcher – assuming a National League team)

Starting Pitchers:

A couple recent signings has killed off much of the top remaining pitchers, but you still have a few guys who can win games.  I see a rotation that includes the following as having some potential:

Roy Oswalt
Edwin Jackson
Jon Garland
Joe Saunders
Livan Hernandez

And I’d give a sixth spot to Rich Harden – pitch him until something breaks (which it will).  Or, you could take Harden’s stuff and make a closer out of him.  Your emergency arm might be Kevin Millwood – I just don’t know if he has one more year left.  I’d stash him in AAA until Rich Harden breaks down…  The staff is really missing an ace, but you have two guys who can win at the top and three guys who can give you 650 innings at the bottom, which helps the bullpen.

Relievers:

The signing of Ryan Madson takes away the best available closer, but you can do a bullpen by committee and hope someone takes charge.  I see the top six arms as follows:

Michael Gonzalez
Danys Baez
Francisco Cordero
Juan Cruz
Brad Lidge
Arthur Rhodes

Out of that list, you can give Lidge the last inning (if he’s healthy) and mix and match the rest to be reasonably effective.

I haven’t done the math on this, but a team with this roster could possibly make a run at 85 wins.

First Trade of 2012… Who had Jason Frasor in that pool?

(Edited to correct three spelling errors.  I should have done a better job editing my stuff last night.  Sorry…)

The Chicago White Sox have been active shedding salary in a remaking of the 2012 roster.

Carlos Quentin Going Home to San Diego

The Chicago White Sox dealt outfielder Carlos Quentin to the San Diego Padres for two pitching prospects, Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.

Quentin broke out in 2008 after the Sox lifted him from Arizona for Chris Carter.  Now, the GM that traded Quentin away (Josh Byrnes) gets him back – just in a different city.  Quentin grew up in the San Diego area and attended the University of San Diego, so this is a homecoming of sorts for the power hitting outfielder.  What might make the Padres nervous is that Quentin has never played more than 131 games or made it to 500 at bats – but he is a consistent threat to hit the ball out – even in spacious San Diego.  My take on it, though, is that he will likely hit about .225 with 18 homers – I’ll have to do the math…

White Sox GM Kenny Williams says that Dayan Viciedo will likely get the first shot at being the regular right fielder.  Essentially equal in talent to Quentin, Viciedo is also seven years younger and not arbitration eligible…

Simon Castro is a righty starter who has struggled as he has moved up into AA and AAA ball – he’s been especially hard hit at AAA Portland and Tucson.  The Sox will have to tinker with him to find an out pitch.  Left Pedro Hernandez has superb control and has been more successful at the higher levels.  Both will likely need one more year, though, before they contribute to the Sox rotation or bullpen.

Sox Send Frasor to Jays in First Trade of 2012

Just days after acquiring veteran lefty reliever Darren Oliver, the Blue Jays added Jason Frasor – a former Jay – in a trade with the White Sox.  The White Sox receive minor league pitchers Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb.

Jason Frasor spent eight seasons in Toronto before being sent to Chicago as part of the Colby Rasmus deal last summer and actually has pitched in more games than any other player in Blue Jays history (455).

Myles Jaye was a 17th round pick in 2010 and pitched reasonably well in Bluefield (RK) of the Appalachian League, finishing with a 3 – 3 record with 49 Ks in 54 innings with decent control – not bad for a first year kid out of high school.  Daniel Webb pitched at two levels last year, is 22, and hasn’t shown signs of a career a couple of years removed from his days at the Northwest Florida State (thanks to a writer/visitor for pointing out an error here).  Unless Jaye pans out, this looks like a salary dump if you ask me.

Ryan Braun’s Suspension a Lock?

Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wrote that he had spoken with an MLB person “in the know” and that person suggested that there is little chance that Ryan Braun‘s positive test for a banned substance will be overturned.  According to the article, two things are working against him: (1) that both test samples came back positive, and (2) that the Brewers did not approve anything Braun may have been taking at the time.  Already likely without Prince Fielder, the Brewers are planning for a third of the season without the 2011 MVP in left field.

Braves Trainer Loses Wife in New Year’s Eve Crash

The Atlanta Braves are joining together to help Head Athletic Trainer Jeff Porter deal with the aftermath of a horrific car crash that killed his wife, Kathy, and injured himself, his son, David, and family friend Courtney Ann Williams.  Porter’s car was hit by a state police car that was racing through an intersection en route to participate in a high speed chase nearby.

Jones Remains a Yankee…

Andruw Jones will return to the Yankees as a utility outfielder and DH for $2 million and incentives.  Last year, the veteran outfielder hit .247 with 13 homers in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.  Is Jones still thought of as a Hall of Fame candidate?

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating with cards, cake, or remembrances include:

Tim Keefe (1857)
Bumpus Jones (1870)
Ethan Allen (1904)
Hank Greenberg (1911)
Earl Torgeson (1924)
La Marr Hoyt (1953)
Fernando Tatis (1975)

Hank and Hoyt you probably heard of…  Bumpus Jones was a pitcher for hire in the 1890s and early 1900s – mostly in the minors.  However, in his first ML game, he threw a no-hitter.  Fernando Tatis, you may recall, hit two grand slams in the same inning – the best inning of hitting ever.

Owners, Union Talk Salary – And It’s Not Pleasant…

The Milwaukee Brewers fear that they may not have enough money to give Prince Fielder in working out a contract extension, and owner Mark Attanasio mentioned that his team didn’t have the resources to retain players that, say, the Yankees have.

Immediately, the Yankees responded – this time President Randy Levine calling out the Brewers, telling ESPN that the Yankees play within the rules, spend resources on the players, and that the Brewers have made hundreds of millions in revenue sharing dollars.  More or less, Levine said, the Brewers and other smaller market clubs should stop their whining…   [ESPN/FanHouse/AP]

Meanwhile, the Major League Baseball Players Association is considering filing a collusion charge against owners suggesting that they have worked together to lower the salaries paid to free agents in the last two seasons.   Agents have even claimed that they would receive the same offers for a player from a number of teams, suggesting that teams were working together to lower salaries.  [SI]

Other Odds and Ends:

After losing 16 – 5 thanks to a lousy start from Carlos Zambrano, I found it rather odd that a headline in MLB’s news section had the Cubs pitchers learning a lot from Greg Maddux…  [MLB]

Hurry Back!

I noted that Huston Street started the season on the DL…  Well, the Rockies closer had his shoulder checked out by Dr. James Andrews and things look okay.  So, Street will start strengthening drills before a throwing program and hopes to return some time in May.  [SI]

Happy Birthday!

1873 – John McGraw
1884 – Jake Daubert
1918 – Bobby Doerr
1944 – Bill Stoneman
1969 – Ricky Bones
1973 – Brett Tomko – Doesn’t have a gig yet, but SOMEONE might give him one last shot after six solid starts for Oakland in 2009…
1975 – Ron Belliard
1979 – Adrian Beltre – who faces the Yankees tonight.  I’m betting on two hits and maybe a homer.

Top NL First Basemen in 2009

Albert Pujols (STL):  Far and away the best player in baseball, as he has been since he arrived nearly a decade ago.  Nobody approached his offensive production and he remains the best fielding first baseman in the game.  As such, his overall production exceeded 225 runs – a staggering total.  I show Pujols as about 50 runs better than the next most productive player in the game.  The question going forward will not be whether Pujols belongs in the Hall of Fame, but whether Pujols is the greatest player God invented.  (178.7 Runs Created, 46.8 Runs Saved = 225.52 Total Run Production)

Adrian Gonzalez (SD):  In most years, this kind of production would lead his league – much less his position.  Instead, he’s just the second most productive player in baseball.  No wonder the Red Sox (and everybody else) wants him.  Dependable and rangy at first base, hits for power and has a solid OBP.  And, he’s doing this in San Diego – the hardest place to put up decent offensive numbers.  It took a while for Gonzalez to reach his fullest potential, but you have to like the total package.  (143.3 Runs Created, 31.05 Runs Saved = 174.38 Total Run Production)

Ryan Howard (PHI):  Had a normal season for him (45 – 151 – .279), but seems to be getting more comfortable defensively.  Howard hit .207 with just 6 homers in 222 at bats – I have no idea why any team would let him face a righty (39 – 108 – .320 in 394 at bats).  By the way, his splits against lefties were WORSE than his career rate (.226 with 53 homers in 935 at bats).  So that’s not a good thing.  (127.6 Runs Created, 11.66 Runs Saved = 139.25 Total Run Production)

Prince Fielder (MIL):  The second most productive hitter in baseball, but his range at first base is now problematic.  In 2006, I showed Fielder as being slightly above average (where Ryan Howard is now).  In 2007 and 2008, he was about ten runs worse than average.  Last year, he was atrocious.  Some of this could have been his pitching staff (Corey Hart had lousy numbers in right field), but giving him 20 runs back still makes him about 10 runs worse than average.  Of course, when you create 150 runs of offense, you can live with the glove.  (157.9 Runs Created, -31.0 Runs Saved = 126.88 Total Run Production)

Pablo Sandoval (SF):  A third baseman, but probably should play first base instead.   If he played first base regularly, he’d rate here…

Jorge Cantu (FLA):  Had a surprisingly good season defensively – frankly, I’m stunned, but if you look at how few assists the rest of the infielders had and then see how many putouts he had, you realize that Cantu takes charge of the infield and makes the most of his time out there.  Additionally, he’s a reasonably productive hitter – an old school definition RBI guy, gets lots of chances and seems to drive in runs whenever called upon.  He’s NOT that productive a hitter – he’s good, but not that good.  However, if he fields like Derrek Lee used to, it’s a valuable package.  (84.9 Runs Created, 25.3 Runs Saved = 110.24 Total Run Production)

James Loney (LAD):  Looking at his stats, I can’t see a difference between Loney and Cantu.  Medium range power, RBIs when opportunities arise, solid defense.  (90.4 Runs Created, 17.58 Runs Saved = 108.03 Total Run Production)

Adam LaRoche (PIT/BOS/ATL):  Had a reasonably good year with the glove – better than any in recent years (since 2006, for sure).  Coupled with decent power and a fair eye, LaRoche was reasonably productive in 2009.  That he’s suddenly moving around more than a regional sales director makes me think his career will start moving downhill, but for now he’s still worth keeping around.  And, compared to what the Diamondbacks had last year, LaRoche is a significant step forward.  It would help him measurably if he could hit in April.  The Pittsburgh job now lands on Jeff Clement, a former Mariner prospect who hasn’t shown major league hitting ability yet.  (99.8 Runs Created, 7.7 Runs Saved = 107.5 Total Run Production)

Joey Votto (CIN):  Missed time this summer dealing with ailments both mental and physical, otherwise he would have rated higher.  Votto is a surpremely talented hitter and a tolerable fielder.  Mashed lefties and righties with equal aplomb in 2009 but gets more walks and power against righties.  I’d love to have him on my team – and he’s my pick to have a crazy breakout season.  (112.6 Runs Created, -5.2 Runs Saved = 107.33 Total Run Production)

Todd Helton (COL):  Still hits well – power stats like Loney but gets on base more often.  His fielding draws raves, but with a stiff back and older wheels, he’s really just a dependable ball catcher who doesn’t have much range anymore.  I wrote about how much Helton has been helped by playing in Colorado, but even at that, he’s been a good player for a lot of years.  When he comes up for the Hall of Fame ballot, it’ll be interesting to see how he fares.  (99.9 Runs Created, 0.8 Runs Saved = 100.69 Total Run Production)

Derrek Lee (CHC):  His back and neck must have really been bothering him as his defensive contribution – usually in the top three or four at first base – was actually among the worst fielders at the position in 2009.  His bat returned to form, however, and he’s been a good hitter (occasionally great hitter) for a long time now.  If I were a betting man, however, I’d be picking Lee as one player who might slip in 2010.  At the end of the season, Lee turns 35 – so time and various injuries are going to start working against him.  As a Derrek Lee fan, I don’t want to see this happen – but the Cubs will have to plan for replacing Lee in the next couple of years.  (114.7 Runs Created, -16.7 Runs Saved = 97.98 Total Run Production.)

Lance Berkman (HOU):  Already appears to have lost a step as a fielder and hitter and that decline contributed to Cecil Cooper’s firing.  Even having slipped, Berkman puts runs on the board.  Now 34, Berkman is in a race against father time…  Hey, Astros fans – who has been a greater player over his career:  Lance Berkman, Craig Biggio or Jeff Bagwell?  (98.9 Runs Created, -4.9 Runs Saved = 94.07 Total Run Production)

Adam Dunn (WAS):  Not much of a fielder here or in left field – but I think I’d rather him be at first base.  Offensively, he’s still a force – but he’s a poor man’s Prince Fielder.  (115.0 Runs Created, -33.54 Runs Saved – 81.45 Total Run Production)

Daniel Murphy (NYM):  Took over when Carlos Delgado could no longer play; he’s mobile and a fair hitter.  Considering what the rest of the league has above him, Murphy is going to have to step up considerably to help the Mets long term.  I think he can get up to where Cantu or Loney are, but he’ll never be GREAT.  At this point, the Mets would settle for solid.  (71.5 Runs Created, 10 Runs Saved = 81.45 Total Run Production)

Travis Ishikawa (SF):  A smooth fielder with middling power, at this position it’s not going to cut it – which is why the Giants acquired Aubrey Huff.  I think Ryan Garko would have been a better option for 2010, but they didn’t ask me…  Ishikawa might hang around for years as a pinch hitter, low cost option for the position.  (41.1 Runs Created, 23.26 Runs Saved = 64.34 Total Run Production)

Casey Kotchman (ATL/BOS):  A glove man who hits like Ishikawa, too.  Has moved around a lot because he doesn’t put many runs on the board.  Now in Seattle, I bet the Mariners fans will miss Russell Branyan by mid July.  (53.0 Runs Created, 5.1 Runs Saved = 58.1 Total Run Production)

Nick Johnson (WAS/FLA):  A coveted free agent, but I’m not sure why.  He gets on base, but doesn’t create a TON of runs because he has marginal power.  As a fielder, he’s abysmal.  Here’s an odd stat for you.  Nick Johnson’s defense at first base was so poor that he cost the Marlins more runs with this glove than he actually produced with his bat.

You think I’m kidding?  Let’s look at putouts per inning data.  When Jorge Cantu played first, he had 829 putouts in 850 innings.  When Johnson played first, he had 192 putouts in 260.2 innings.  In the same number of innings, that works out to 626 putouts – or 200 (!) fewer than Cantu had.  Does Johnson catch any pop ups, foul balls or line drives?  Apparently not.  Maybe he’s a ground ball repellent – when in the field, the pitchers only got fly balls to the outfield for outs.  I digress.

He’s a DH/#2 hitter – which I imagine might be his job with the Yankees in 2010.  (78.0 Runs Created, -23.3 Runs Saved = 54.7 Total Run Production)

Chad Tracy (ARI):  Got the most action there, but really only played half a season for the Diamondbacks.  He’s gone – thankfully – and Adam LaRoche will improve the output at this position immediately.  (28.4 Runs Created, -5.1 Runs Saved = 23.33 Total Run Production)