2010 Season Forecast: Florida Marlins

Last Five Seasons:

2009: 87 – 75 (2nd, NL East)
2008: 84 – 77
2007: 71 – 91
2006: 78 – 84
2005: 83 – 79

Finally people started seeing the Marlins for what they are – a talented team despite the low payroll who, when healthy and getting a modicum of pitching, can hang with anybody.

Runs Scored: 772 (5th, NL)
Runs Allowed: 766 (11th, NL)

Like in 2008, the Marlins edged opponents on the scoreboard but came ahead on the deal in terms of wins and losses.  The reason for this is because the bottom of their pitching is ATROCIOUS, and when they lose they tend to get pounded.

Season Recap:

The Marlins won 11 of 12 to open the season because six games were against the Nationals when the Nationals really stunk up the joint.  I remember sitting in the office talking about this with Jose Gomez – the Marlins were about to play the Pirates and we were talking about how they could be 14 – 1 and heading home.

Instead, they lost a lot – losing 24 of the next 32 games.  This was because only Josh Johnson was winning any starts and Ricky Nolasco, who SHOULD be an ace, needed a trip to the minors to find himself.

When Nolasco returned, that gave the Marlins two decent arms the rest of the way.  Then, Hanley Ramirez and Chris Coghlan started getting two hits every night (or so it seemed) and the Marlins climbed back into the race by the end of August and made a run at a wild card slot before running out of time.

All along, it seemed like the Marlins were just two players away from being as good as anybody in the NL.  They needed one more starter and one more really good reliever.  No – they don’t have ALL the firepower of the Phillies, but with a core of Ramirez, Cantu, Uggla, and Coghlan setting the table, that’s a lot of runs to work with.  The helpers – Cody Ross, both catchers – Ronny Paulino and John Baker, Cameron Maybin, and bench hitters like Wes Helms and Ross Gload – all contribute.

Two more pitchers.

I digress.

Pitchers:

A completely healthy Josh Johnson pitched 209 impressive innings, winning 75% of his decisions and saving his team 33.7 runs.  Ricky Nolasco, as mentioned earlier, found his mojo after a trip to the minors and finished the season by striking out 16 batters and nine in a row in his final start.  If you look at his numbers, you’d never know he had a 5.06 ERA – winning record, solid K/BB numbers, and not hit TOO badly.  He did give up hits in bunches, though, and that was his problem.

After that, Chris Volstad gave up 29 homers in 159 innings, pushing his ERA over 5.00.  Sean West was tolerable but a little green in his 20 starts.  Anibal Sanchez pitched half a season of okay ball – an ERA under 4, but watching him start is excrutiating because he always seems to be pitching his way out of trouble.  Andrew Miller made 14 starts and got worse as the season progressed, eventually hitting the bullpen and then AAA.  Rick VandenHurk made the Netherlands WBC team, and had eleven okay starts.

Looking forward, that’s the problem the Marlins face with the rotation.  Nolasco will be better, but can Sanchez make 30 starts?  Will West improve?  The Marlins made a late acquisition, picking up Nate Robertson from Detroit – and he HAS to be better than Andrew Miller (also, formerly of Detroit).  If Robertson can make 30 reasonably good starts, this is a step up.  I like the potential of improvement here – but they still require a lot of bullpen help.

Let’s look at that bullpen.  The Marlins tried Matt Lindstrom as a closer, but he got hurt during the WBC and his 100 MPH fastball seemed very flat and hittable.  Leo Nunez, a decent 8th inning guy, became the closer and was okay because he doesn’t really have the control needed.  They combined for 41 saves, but a lot of chewed nails.

The Marlins did find their usual surprise and cheap help in the middle relief corps…  Kiko Calero allowed just 36 hits in 60 innings, but 13 were homers (must have all be solo shots), which led to a very surprising 1.95 ERA.  Renyal (1972 Ford) Pinto is a wild lefty who had more good innings than bad ones.  Florida even has a legitimate long reliever in Burke Badenhop – a guy who looks good the first time through the lineup but gets killed in the fourth and fifth innings – so he becomes a reliever who frequently makes multiple inning runs when the team needs it.  Brian Sanches and Dan Meyer were solid most of the season.  Even Brendan Donnelly came over and gave the team 25.1 good innings.  So, there was a lot of depth in the pen – there just wasn’t a shut down closer and a lot of relievers always seemed like they were living on the edge.

Looking ahead, Calero is gone – in his place will be Clay Hensley.  I’m not sure I get it – he has little control and couldn’t keep his ERA under 5.00 in the spacious confines of Petco Park in San Diego.  The rest of the pitching staff returns with just those two additions (Hensley, Robertson) and two subtractions (Lindstrom and Calero).  So, while the rotation should be 30 or 40 runs better, the bullpen could give half of that back.

Catchers:

John Baker and Ronny Paulino shared the job in 2009 and will do so again – at least until Brett Hayes is ready for a test drive.  Both hit enough and are natural platoon partners; Paulino was tolerable against the run – but otherwise are rather bland catchers.  Neither is known for handling the staff (and who would take credit for last year’s pitching) or avoiding mistakes.

Infielders:

Defensively, not very good.  Offensively, as good as you might want.

Jorge Cantu was solid at first – but then looked out of practice playing third base when Nick Johnson arrived last year.  Johnson has NO range as a first baseman – so he was allowed to play DH for the Yankees.  Cantu will move to third base to give Gaby Sanchez a shot.  Sanchez hits like Pete O’Brien in a good year, about .280 with mid range power.  I just don’t know that Sanchez will be that much better defensively.  He will be better than Johnson, though.

Dan Uggla rips homers, got on base despite a dip in his batting average, and started to look slow defensively.  A late bloomer, Uggla makes more good plays than bad ones, but a slipping range means that he’s a candidate to be moved if the Marlins start to fall out of the race.

Hanley Ramirez is one of the two best players in the NL right now – the best hitting shortstop (heck, as good as anyone except, perhaps Pujols or Braun) in baseball and a tolerable fielder.  He’s very deliberate as a fielder, as if trying not to make throwing mistakes, but he doesn’t have the acrobatic range of the really good ones.  Hitting .340 with power, though, nobody seems to care.  Except, perhaps, the pitching staff.

Last year, Emilio Bonifacio played a lot of third, but he’s really better suited as a bench player.  Wes Helms is a solid bat off the bench and plays third and first well enough.  Mike Lamb comes over to replace Ross Gload as a veteran lefty bat off the bench.  Gload was impressive last year – so he’ll be a challenge to replace (and will be missed).  Brian Barden also made the club, but I don’t know where he’ll play with this lineup.  Perhaps he’ll be a late inning defensive replacement for any of these guys…

Looking forward, I see the defense slipping another ten runs but the offense holding steady.

Outfield:

Chris Coghlan is a hitter, an amazing collection of line drives – patient at the plate and has good enough speed to sneak 30 steals.  He’s just not much of a left fielder.  Eventually, he’ll have to move – but he’ll bat leadoff until he’s 40.

Cameron Maybin earned the starting nod last year, got off to a slow start with the bat, and needed a trip to AAA to get his swing back.  He’ll get a second shot – and hopefully he’ll stick.  I see him as the new Preston Wilson, and if he ever puts it together, that’ll be just fine.

Cody Ross is a shaved head bundle of energy and smiles – and can play a decent right field and back up Maybin in center.  He has decent power but you wish his batting average was closer to .280 than .250.  You need guys like Ross on the team…  Fan friendly, contributes in many different ways, and compliments the stars on the field.

Brett Carroll and Emilio Bonifacio will provide bench support.  Carroll is actually a pretty good fielder, but doesn’t appear to have MLB hitting skills.

I like this unit to be much better than last year – possibly 30 – 50 runs better offensively and 20 runs better defensively because (a) Maybin is an AMAZING fielder and will be here every day and (b) Coghlan will be more comfortable out there than last year.

Prospects:

The best hitters at AAA are already on the Marlins – Sanchez, Coghlan, and Maybin.  And, there weren’t a lot of pitching prospects in New Orleans to write home about.

Sean West came out of AA Jacksonville, as did Chris Leroux.  West may stick for a while, but Leroux will probably not be a future star.  He has decent enough control, gets a few strikeouts, but at 25 is not really a young prospect.  Jacksonville must be a tough place to hit.  The top average was Bryan Petersen‘s .297, a 4th round pick in 2007 out of Cal-Irvine.  Look for him to get a shot at AAA, and be a fourth outfielder before too long.

The big prospect at AA was Mike Stanton, whose batting average stunk, but has SERIOUS power and is only 20.  He’ll be among the first guys to get a shot at right field if Cody Ross gets hurt.  Logan Morrison is another first base prospect who has Mark Grace-like skills – good OBP and a little power.

A+ Jupiter featured Stanton (for a while) and another teen – Matt Dominguez who will be a future third baseman on this team by 2012.  Looks like a young Mike Lowell right now, but it’s still early.  Check him out in Jacksonville in 2010.  All of the really good Hammerhead pitchers throw strikes, but few better than Elih Villanueva, who walked just 18 in 158 innings, striking out 110.  He’ll be moved up to AA as well.

Forecast:

For two years, the Marlins played better than the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed would have suggested, and that’s a problem.  It means they could be unlucky this year.  On the other hand, there is room for improvement.  The team should allow 40 fewer runs and possibly score 30 more.  Marlins ownership EXPECTS a playoff team, and I see them on the fringe of that – 89 wins.  My HUNCH is that they’ll be over .500, but closer to 84 wins – but the Marlins fan in me hopes my system is right.

Can Improv Theater Save Matt Murton? Calling Todd Stashwick!!! And Other Baseball News…

The Phillies tried Ryan Madson as the closer last night (Lidge had pitched in four consecutive games and wasn’t available as it was) and blew the save anyway…  No worries – Lidge will keep his job until his arm or knee falls off.  [Multiple Sources]

A little good news earlier in the broadcast…  Hiroki Kuroda threw a successful bullpen session and is closer to returning to the Dodgers.  He is expected to throw a simulated game in a few days, then a rehab start.  Kuroda is healing quickly after suffering a concussion when nailed in the side of the head by a drive off the bat of Rusty Ryal a couple of weeks ago.  [MLB]

Brad Penny asked for, and received, his release from the Boston Red Sox – surrendering his roster spot to Billy Wagner.  Penny will start looking for a team that wants a healthy but disappointing pitcher.  I always liked him – works fast, threw strikes.  He needs Dave Duncan – but the Marlin fan in me wouldn’t mind letting him find his routine as a long reliever back home in Florida where it started for him  [ESPN]

With no fear that this was going to get any better for him, Milton Bradley says he feels “hatred” from Cub fans – fans who are disappointed that the usually dependable hitter (if undependable personality) had struggled through most of his first season in Chicago.  Bradley says the only place he feels any love is at home with his family, and apparently gets booed in more places than just Wrigley – like restaurants, bars, grocery stores, gas stations, and knitting clubs.  Do you think that many people recognize Milton Bradley at first glance?  Or is he just paranoid?  [ESPN]

Moving across town, newly acquired White Sox starter Jake Peavy’s start on Saturday will be postponed.  His elbow is still sore and swollen, the effects of being hit by a line drive in his last rehab start.  [ESPN]

Speaking of sore elbows, Detroit starter Armando Gallaraga goes to AAA for rest (and not the DL?), giving his sore throwing elbow a break.  To replace him, Nate Robertson gets the call.  Robertson has been on the DL with an elbow injury himself…  [ESPN]

Yankee catcher Jorge Posada will miss a few games after taking a foul ball squarely on his left ring finger Wednesday night; the finger is swollen but not broken.  [ESPN]

Another Mets pitcher is heading to surgery…  Oliver Perez’s sore knee requires a scalpel and sutures to repair his right patella tendon.  Look for Pat Misch or Lance Broadway to get his starts.  (I know – Broadway in New York…  Broadway was picked up in May for backup catcher Ramon Castro in a trade with the White Sox.)  If you were counting, this is 14 Met players on the DL.  [ESPN]

FoxSports is reporting that LaTroy Hawkins was placed on waivers, but claimed by someone.  So, Houston recalled Hawkins’ name from the list and now cannot be traded until after the season.  [FoxSports]

For the second time in five years, the Cleveland Indians bus was involved in an accident or incident on the way to Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City.  The driver of the car hitting the bus was injured, but the Indians won the game anyway…  [SI]

A Federal Appeals court ruled that federal investigators were wrong for seizing the list of players who had tested positive in the now infamous “sampling” tests done in 2003 to determine if baseball needed a stronger anti-PED policy.  Prosecutors wanted information about ten players involved in the BALCO investigation and wound up with 104 players instead…  The leaks are more famous than the list itself.  The Fed was asked to return the list, but one wonders if this means that the leaks will end.  [SI]

In an odd twist, three umpires worked home plate in last night’s Toronto/Tampa game.  Jerry Crawford left with back spasms.  His replacement, Tom Hallion, took a Scott Kazmir fastball in the chest (Travis Snider swung and missed, and Greg Zaun had no idea Kazmir was throwing a fastball and missed, too).  Hallion chose to stay out there – but moved to third base instead, meaning that Brian O’Nora had to finish the game.  I’m betting that hasn’t happened before.  [FoxSports]

Welcome Back! Justin Upton returned to Arizona, Juan Rincon returned to Colorado, Joe Saunders is back with the Angels, and Tim Wakefield is back with Boston – all four coming back from DL stints.  Brett Carroll is back with the Marlins with Nick Johnson heading to the DL.  Carroll is the best fifth outfielder they have…  Drew Macias made his seventeenth trip between Portland and San Diego this week…  I’ll root for him forever now.

Is it Over? I sure hope not.  Matt Murton was designated for assignment by Colorado.  The kid could hit, but never keep a job.  Murton isn’t Russell Branyan – a power hitter without a home because he never gets more than 100 at bats in a month to get his groove on.  He’s more of a .280 – .300 hitter with middling power type.  If he could pinch hit or tell jokes or dance during the seventh inning stretch, he’d be Jay Johnstone and hang around on benches forever.  Todd Stashwick (my favorite actor) – you probably don’t read my blog, but if you could teach him to be more clever and work on his impromtu humor so he could be a guest on pregame, postgame, and rain delay shows, Matt Murton could stay in the majors.

Hurry Back! Pirates pitcher Jeff Karstens heads to the DL with a strained back.  Shane Loux (Angels), Daniel Schlereth (D-Backs), and Collin Balester (Nationals) are heading back to AAA.

Afterthoughts… Is it me, or do ESPN Radio hosts get more vacation time than anyone?  Mike and Mike in the Morning should be renamed “Maybe Mike and Mike, but probably Erik Kuselius in for one of them, in the Morning”…  And nobody’s show is less frequently hosted by the named star than the afternoon drive show of Doug Gottlieb.  He is NEVER on his own show.  In fact, I’m used to the radio bump “You’re Listening to the Doug Gottlieb Show…  In for Doug, Ryan Racillo.”  Does somebody keep stats on this???

Rivera Second to 500 Saves; Storm Rocks High Desert, 33 – 18

Mariano Rivera joined Trevor Hoffman in the 500 save club after getting the last of four outs against the Mets.  What made it especially cool was that he had to bat in the ninth inning against K-Rod with the bases loaded and drew a walk for his first career RBI.

Ian Snell, trying to regain his form in AAA Indianapolis, fanned 13 straight batters in a win over Toledo.  Pittsburgh needs Snell to keep that form and help the Pirates make a run at .500 for the first time since Barry Bonds was…  Well, a Pirate anyway.

Antonio Bastardo will miss at least one start with a strained shoulder.

Hurry Back!  Detroit loses Nate Robertson to the DL with what has been described as “a mass” in his elbow.  Fu-Te Ni gets the call from AAA Toledo.  Fu-Te Ni hails from Pingtung County, Taiwan and has been solid, with a 32/9 K/BB ratio and decent ERA in Toledo.

Matt Harrison also heads to the DL, his second trip to the DL with shoulder inflammation.  In his place, Texas recalled Tommy Hunter from AAA Oklahoma City.  Hunter was raced to Texas after being drafted in the first round in 2007 out of Alabama.  His first MLB tour ended with a 16.36 ERA in three starts in 2008, so hopefully this will turn out differently.  I’m not convinced he’s ready.  Hunter shows good control, but doesn’t blow people away.  Frankly, I think the days of Texas being a contender in the AL West might be ending unless they can find some pitchers.  They face Los Angeles in a battle for the division lead starting tonight.

San Francisco put pitcher Kelvin Pichardo on the 60-Day DL with a shoulder problem.  Baltimore’s Koji Uehara’s elbow will require a DL stint as well.

Welcome Back!  Washington’s Scott Olsen returns from the DL (shoulder tendinitis) and gets to face his old team, the Marlins, on Monday.  Shairon Martis heads back to Syracuse.  Mark Ellis returns to the A’s, while Asdrubel Cabrera returns to Cleveland.

Afterthoughts…  The Lake Elsinore Storm topped the High Desert Mavericks, 33 – 18, in a California League game Sunday.  The Storm scored eight in the first, six in the eighth, and give runs in two other innings.  The teams combined for 57 hits and ten homers.  In the game, James McOwen extended his hitting streak to 36 games.

Vin Scully, Voice of the Yankees? Say it Ain’t So!!!

Carlos Delgado is out ten weeks to surgery on his impinged hip – the new injury of the new decade. The Mets can cope as they have a few outfield options and could choose to give one a shot at first base. Fernando Tatis for now. Still – this could be troublesome, costing the team about two to three games in the standings if they can’t find a comparable replacement.

Rickie Weeks went down to a wrist injury, leaving the Brewers with difficult choices in their lineup. He’s having surgery to repair a torn sheath – similar to David Ortiz a while back – and may affect his really quick bat. Weeks is a great fielder and a decent enough hitter who was really putting it together. For now, the Brewers look to platooning and may call up an infielder from the minors. Craig Counsell is probably the best fielder, but Casey McGehee can play some. This is probably worth five wins over the next four plus months in terms of lost productivity.

Eric Chavez’s back is REALLY bad – he said a degenerative disk is so bad that the next pop in his back will require fusing disks and end his career. One day after announcing that, Chavez has reversed that to some degree, saying that he hopes that strengthening and stretching will help, but he’s really just trying to avoid another surgery. Jack Cust has been playing third. As many other writers have reminded Oakland fans, they signed this guy to a six year deal for a LOT of money ($66 Million) and then missed more than two seasons worth of games…

Noah Lowry had problems with numbness in his hand and underwent surgery to fix issues in his forearm. That didn’t work, and now doctors are calling it a misdiagnosis of a circulatory problem and will be removing one of Lowry’s ribs – costing him this season, too. Once a prospect, Lowry’s career is on the brink as well. Others to have had this surgery? Kenny Rogers and Jeremy Bonderman.

Josh Hamilton came off the DL, strained his groin, and now is missing a couple of games and hoping not to go on the DL.

David Ortiz took a series off and will play today hoping to get his first homer of the season. Wow. That’s a sentence, huh?

Jason Kendall got his 2000th hit against the Cardinals. MLB.com, in reporting the story, says that his teammates celebrated by putting the honor on the labels of specially marked Bud Light bottles. BUD LIGHT? Not Miller Lite??? Either the reporting is wrong, or somebody should tell whoever put this together that the Brewers play in Milwaukee.

Todd Helton looked like he got his 2000th hit last night, but it was ruled an error. Some are suggesting that the official scorer may reverse that decision (it was a SHOT past a ducking Yunel Escobar). I hope they saved the ball.

Nate Robertson’s back feels better, but he’s not ready to pitch in a rehab start.

Speaking of Tigers, Magglio Ordonez is the second player given time off to attend to a personal matter (Minnesota’s Delmon Young is caring for his extremely ill mom), so Detroit is calling up prospect Wilkin Ramirez. Ramirez is a free swinger who can run some – but there are some odd things in his record. He gets caught stealing more than you would like, and he strikes out as frequently as you get advertisements for credit cards in your mailbox – at least once or twice every day. Ramirez was hitting well in Toledo, though, and earned the shot.

Pat Burrell is on the DL with a neck strain.

Glen Perkins is on the DL with inflammation in his left elbow, as is Oakland’s Dan Giese – though with Giese it’s his right elbow and tied to his ulnar nerve. C’mon, say it with me. He’s got some nerve!

Need saves? David Aardsma is the new closer for Seattle. Until recently, Aardsma’s biggest claim to fame was moving ahead of Henry Aaron for the first spot in your baseball encyclopedia thanks to alphabetical superiority.

The Mets’ Alex Cora injured his thumb sliding into second base and now is on the DL. Cora was playing because Jose Reyes has swelling in his calf (see Jose Valverde) and has called himself “day-to-day” for six days now. (What player on my team isn’t day to day???)

Speaking of day-to-day, Cincy’s Joey Votto has had dizzy spells following a bout with the flu and didn’t make the trip home because he couldn’t fly with the team, so he’s being watched in San Diego.

On the mend? Tom Glavine, Kevin Youkilis, Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, and Hiroki Kuroda. Glavine’s recent simulated game went over well.

Want a crazy story? Read this.  Says here that Vin Scully very nearly became the voice of the Yankees.