2010 – Top AL Designated Hitters

Chicago White Sox – Shared amongst several players, will be using Adam Dunn in 2011 (109.2 Runs Created).  I’m guessing he’ll do just fine.

Vladimir Guerrero – TEX (98.7 Runs Created)

29 – 115 – .300, but seemed to slow as the season wore on.  Didn’t get resigned, so he’s now getting a shot with Baltimore.  He’ll be okay, but a notch below his 2010 production.

David Ortiz – BOS (98.4 Runs Created)

One day, the slow start will be a slow season.  For now, he remains a very productive hitter.

Hideki Matsui – LAA (86.2 Runs Created)

Still a potent bat, with fair power and a discerning eye at the plate.  Now the DH in Oakland, which seemed like a good idea at the time.  Will be 37 in June, and his stats won’t look as good in Oakland, which may hasten his decline.

Luke Scott – BAL (84.7 Runs Created)

Can play the corner outfield positions (though not well) and first base in a pinch.

Jim Thome – MIN (73,0 Runs Created)

Shared role with Jason Kubel in a platoon role, though after Justin Morneau went down, Kubel played more in the field, too.  Can still tattoo a fastball to the opposite field, and is the complete professional hitter.  Approaching 600 homers with no sign of slowing down.  Of course, the 40s aren’t always friendly to batters.

Travis Hafner – CLE (69.3 Runs Created)

Platooned, which is why his totals are less than the rest – but he’s platooned for a reason.

Johnny Damon or Magglio Ordonez – DET (79.7 and 58.9 Runs Created, respectively)

Damon got most of the licks here in 2010, but Ordonez may get the bulk of them in 2011.

Jack Cust – OAK (62.7 Runs Created)

Hits for power, draws a few walks, swings through a lot of strikes.  Now gets to play full time in Seattle, where he may get more playing time.  I wouldn’t be suprised at 25 – 95 in 2011.

Jose Guillen – KC (53.9 Runs Created)

Guillen shared it with a few others – look for Billy Butler or Kila (Mt.) Ka’aihue to get the bulk of the at bats next year.

The Yankees shared the role amongst a number of players, including Jorge Posada, Marcus Thames, and any of their aging stars needing a day or three off while keeping a bat in the lineup.  Thames was very productive, and the other hitters are all pretty good.

The Mariners shared the role amongst a few players, including Mike Sweeney, Ken Griffey, Milton Bradley and Russell Branyan.  None of that really worked out well, so Jack Cust has been imported for 2011.

The Rays shared the role with a variety of fourth outfielders and extra infielders – sometimes to good effect.  For 2011, Manny Ramirez and/or Johnny Damon (mostly Manny) will get the at bats.  Manny can’t stay healthy, he has an insanity streak, but can still hit really, really well.  We’ll see if he’s got one more good year left in the tank, or if he gets bored.  Or just old.

2010 Top AL Left Fielders

Carl Crawford – TB (128.8 Runs Created, 13.1 Runs Saved = 141.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Which player had the better contract season, Crawford or Adrian Beltre?   Maybe it was Jose Bautista…  Did what he always does, only with a few more homers and triples.  Nobody compares them, but Crawford and Johnny Damon are extremely similar players.  Well – the Damon of a few years ago, anyway.

Josh Hamilton – TEX (131.5 Runs Created, 3.7 Runs Saved = 135.2 Total Runs Productivity)

Still played some center, but only because Julio Borbon isn’t that strong a hitter.  Who does he remind you of, as a hitter?  I can’t think of any modern player…  Al Simmons?  Goose Goslin?

Scott Podsednik – KC/LAD (77.6 Runs Created, 10.0 Runs Saved = 87.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Kind of like Juan Pierre, but with a touch more power and a bit more range.  Led the AL in hitting early on, earning a trip to a contender – that flopped upon his arrival.  Returns to the AL with Toronto in 2011.  Turns 35 in spring training, which should give you pause, but has retained his speed and skill thus far.  Alex Gordon got the spot after Podsednik left and proved he still isn’t a prospect.

Bobby Abreu, if he were a regular left fielder, would rank about here (85.2 Total Runs Productivity).

Juan Pierre – CHI (77.9 Runs Created, 3.1 Runs Saved = 81.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Still can run (68 stolen bases), still slaps singles but not at the rate he once did.  Unless he hits .310, he’s not that valuable, but he still gets 650 at bats because he has a great work ethic and people think his speed makes up for a complete lack of power and a bunch of ground outs.

Brett Gardner – NYY (73.2 Runs Created, 3.9 Runs Saved = 77.1 Total Runs Productivity)

A better leadoff hitter than Derek Jeter, and the best #9 hitter in baseball.  Gets on base, runs like the wind, and covers plenty of ground.  The new Brett Butler.  If he had 650 at bats rather than 450 (not that you can tell Jeter he’s batting ninth), would have created about 100 runs.  One day, he will.

Johnny Damon – DET (79.7 Runs Created, -3.0 Runs Saved = 76.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Heads to Tampa where he and/or Manny Ramirez will share the field and DH duties.  Not as mobile as he used to be as a myriad of leg injuries are sapping him of his old speed, but he’s still a quality bat.  Damon’s power, never great, is tolerable and he now works the count like a veteran who is losing his ability to catch up to a fastball.  Not sure how many years he has left and wouldn’t be surprised if his career runs out of steam.  29 hits from 2600.

Delmon Young – MIN (97.7 Runs Created, -25.0 Runs Saved = 72.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Took his batting and fielding to new levels – albeit in different directions.  Hit .298 with power, driving in 112 runs – by far his best season.  Also avoided fly balls at a career worst rate.  Hard to believe he’s really that bad in left, but he just doesn’t get to anything.

Juan Rivera – LAA (57.6 Runs Created, 12.1 Runs Saved = 69.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Decent hitter, average glove (don’t let the runs saved number fool you, it was his best season since 2006 and usually is a shade under league average).  Another guy moving to Toronto where he might explode for a year.

Brennan Boesch – DET (64.0 Runs Created, 4.0 Runs Saved = 68.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Played more in right field – nearly full time combined.  He’s got mid-range power, can cover some ground, a bit better eye than Ryan Raburn.  If nothing else, when the Tigers kept Damon or Ordonez as a DH, they had a young and mobile outfield.  Damon is gone now, so both Raburn and Boesch will get 550 at bats rather than 400.

Austin Kearns – CLE/NY (57.3 Runs Created, 8.8 Runs Saved = 66.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Saved what looked to be a dead career with a strong start as an unplanned outfielder in Cleveland and wound up an insurance extra outfielder for the Yankees.  Showed surprising range in the outfield and contributed by hitting for a little power and getting on base.  He hasn’t been consistently productive, but if he plays like he did in 2010, he’ll have a job for a few more years.  Heck, he probably got two years of contracts out of this season alone.

Ryan Raburn – DET (61.2 Runs Created, 1.8 Runs Saved = 63.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Played a lot of left, but also snuck innings in at second base (not badly), third, first, center, and right.  A decent hitter, too – sowed power and hit .280.  Will get more time in 2011 – might be worth a late look in your fantasy leagues.

Fourteen guys played left field for Oakland, led by Rajai Davis at 320.1 innings – but Davis also split time in center with Coco Crisp, leading the team in innings there, too.  Josh Willingham would appear to have the job in 2011 (62.7 Total Runs Productivity).  Willingham hits, plays hard, is a consumate professional, but with a stiff back is really not a good outfielder.

Trevor Crowe – CLE (49.0 Runs Created, 11.4 Runs Saved = 60.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Has speed, but will probably show little growth as a hitter since he’s already 27 and wasn’t a world beater in the minors, Crowe played more centerfield but was just a few innings from leading the Indians in time spent in left field as well.  At this point, he’s a much better defensive player than Grady Sizemore, but he needs to increase either his on base percentage or slugging percentage to be worth giving 1000 innings in the field.  He’s really a fifth outfielder at best.

Corey Patterson – BAL/OAK (52.7 Runs Created, 7.0 Runs Saved = 59.7 Total Runs Productivity)

An older version of Felix Pie with more power and a greater willingness to steal bases.

David Murphy – TEX (67.4 Runs Created, -7.9 Runs Saved = 59.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Would be the best fourth outfielder in baseball if he were more consistent in the field, but he never gets to play one position for a long period of time.  Valuable player.

Fred Lewis – TOR (60.6 Runs Created, -9.2 Runs Saved = 51.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Doesn’t hit for much power, doesn’t get on base enough, runs a little but not a ton.  Didn’t field his position well in 2010 (was slightly below average in 2008, slightly above in 2009).  Fourth outfielder at best.

Bill Hall – BOS (49.5 Runs Created, -2.5 Runs Saved = 47.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Valuable player, logging time at six positions and playing most of them pretty well.  With the current rosters lugging bigger pitching staffs, a guy like Hall is remarkably valuable.

Michael Saunders – SEA (35.7 Runs Created, 7.9 Runs Saved = 43.6 Total Runs Productivity)

A bit of power and decent range in the outfield made up for a low batting average – strikes out a lot.  Never had a GREAT year in the minors and I’d be hard pressed to believe he’s really a 20 homer guy.  I think he might improve – but that means .240 with 15 homers, which isn’t good enough.

Felix Pie – BAL (35.5 Runs Created, 6.4 Runs Saved = 41.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Mobile fielder, can play all three fields, ordinary hitter with no bonuses for on base percentage.  Once a prospect, now a servicable fourth outfielder.

Milton Bradley – SEA (29.1 Runs Created, 6.1 Runs Saved = 35.2 Total Runs Productivity)

If he’s got ANYTHING left, he’s way over due to show it.  Career may be in final tailspin and with his personal history, it’s not like people are going to bend over to give him an EXTRA chance.

Shelley Duncan – CLE (31.5 Runs Created, -3.0 Runs Saved = 28.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Got a chance because he has decent power and his dad is Dave Duncan.  Doesn’t do much else, though…  Low batting average, not much of a fielder.

Jeremy Hermida – BOS/OAK (17.4 Runs Created, 5.4 Runs Saved = 22.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Awkwardly effective in the outfield (runs fast, plays the ball well, but hates diving and walls), and a disappointing hitter – won’t be in the majors after next year, probably, unless he can turn himself into Jay Johnstone.  And Hermida’s not that funny.

Daniel Nava – BOS (19.8 Runs Created, -10.4 Runs Saved = 9.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Got the most innings when Jacoby Ellsbury went out with more maladies than a guest star on House.  Not that strong a hitter, for someone who is fast Nava didn’t look comfortable playing in Boston’s oddly shaped left field.

2010 Season Forecast: Chicago Cubs

Last Five Seasons:

2009: 83 – 78 (2nd – NL East)
2008: 97 – 74
2007: 85 – 77
2006: 66 – 96
2005: 79 – 83

Runs Scored: 707 (9th – NL)
Runs Allowed: 672 (5th – NL)

For what it’s worth, the Cubs and their opponents scored 732 runs in Wrigley Field and just 647 on the road last year…

Season Recap:

Picked by a ton of people to win the NL Central, the Cubs hung around the race for four months before throwing in the towel down the stretch.

Every time the Cubs would get rolling, they found a losing streak.  Two weeks in, Chicago rolled out to an 8 – 4 record, only to lose four in a row.  Recovering, they won 8 of 12 only to lose a couple more.  Into May, the Cubbies took off – rattling five in a row to get to 21 – 14.  Thinking that this win streak might put them out in front for good, Chicago lost EIGHT straight…

Hanging around .500 for the next several weeks, the Cubs entered the All-Star break at 43 – 42.  Sensing a need to get going, the Cubs rolled out to 57 – 48 and actually sneaked into the top spot for a day in late July.  That’s when the bullpen suddenly lost it.  The Marlins came back to beat former closer Kevin Gregg and the Cubs hit a tailspin that knocked them out of the NL Central race just as St. Louis was adding Holliday, DeRosa, and Lopez for the stretch run.  The Cubs fell back to a game over .500, made a small fuss for the wild card race, and then disappeared.

Injuries hurt the Cubs as much as many other teams – losing Aramis Ramirez, Milton Bradley (injuries to his body as well as his attitude), Ted Lilly and Alfonso Soriano – but poor performances were equally to blame.  Milton Bradley signed a three-year, $30 million deal and proceeded to hit .257 with middling power.  Soriano’s season was worse – knee injuries and age contributing to a horrific .241 batting average.  And Geovany Soto, such a huge part of the 2008 NL Central Champs, fell off to .218, with just 11 homers.  Throw in the decline of a portly Carlos Zambrano, who failed to win ten games and missed at least six starts, and you can see why the Cubs fell back 13.5 games from 2008.

2010 Goals:

Lessee…  The Cubs need an attitude adjustment.  Bringing Milton Bradley was a BAD idea – no matter how good his upside might have been, there’s no excuse for that deal.  Just as importantly, the big horses need to find the old mojo and get healthy.  Soto and Zambrano need to return to form and it would be nice to get 140 healthy games out of Ramirez and Soriano – both of whom are running out of youth.  Finding a dependable closer would help, too.

Pitchers:

On paper, the Cubs have a fantastic rotation.  Carlos Zambrano should be an innings eater, and if his off-season fitness plan works out (no pun intended), he could return to form.  He pitched okay in the 160 innings he logged in 2009, but he needs to pitch 220 or more.  Ted Lilly will be back, but might miss a few starts early on as he recovers from minor surgery to clean up his elbow.  Ryan Dempster returns, as well as last year’s top newcomer, Randy Wells.  The fifth starter is former Pirate star (and Jayhawk alum) Tom Gorzelanny – who a couple of years ago was the ace of the Pirates staff.  Last year, the Cubs front five (the top four plus Rich Harden) were about 68 runs better than average and threw  852 innings.  That’s going to be hard to BEAT, but is something that the Cubs should be able to hold steady for 2010.

The bullpen wasn’t horrible – as a group about 16 runs better than average – but it lacked a big time stopper.  Kevin Gregg saved 23 games, but was really only decent for three months and scary the rest of the way.  He’s gone…  Carlos Marmol assumed the closer role – nearly impossible to hit stuff but walks a batter an inning which makes him Mitch Williams with a better chance to field grounders.  Angel Guzman and John Grabow return to set the table, and Jeff Samardzija, Justin Berg, Sean Marshall will get long relief or spot starts.  Samardzija is likely the one guy who could surprise as a fifth starter, but I’ll be honest.  I don’t see him as anything special.  Still – he throws hard and has as good a chance as anyone to have a good year facing 200 batters…  The Cubs added Carlos Silva in a trade with Seattle – ridding themselves of one headache (Milton Bradley) while acquiring organizational depth in terms of a guy to toss BP.

So, as a staff, the pitching – already good – will remain good in 2010.

Catchers:

Geovany Soto returns, with his backup Koyie Hill intact.  As a unit, they aren’t horrible – but if there is a room for improvement, it’s here.  If Soto splits the difference between his awesome 2008 numbers and his horrific 2009 numbers, the Cubs could get 20 more runs on the scoreboard.

Infield:

Derrek Lee had a quietly amazing year with the stick – 35 – 111 – .306, generating about 115 runs of offense.  On top of that, Lee also had 36 doubles…  The problems with his neck and back, however, affected his defensive range.  Usually Lee is among the top two or three defenders at his position, but in 2009 he was below average in terms of range.  Going forward, I see a 20 run slip in his offense, but he could at least return to league average defense if his back feels better.  In terms of net production, it’s a wash…

At second base, Jeff Baker arrived from Colorado and had a career half season, batting over .300 and fielding everything in site.  That made up for the poor performance of Mike Fontenot, who appears to still have the job.  I don’t think Baker can do this over 500 at bats, and neither do the Cubs who have Fontenot penciled in as the regular.  Fontenot was below average in both offense and defense – and I don’t see this improving in 2010.  If anything whatever bounce back Fontenot has will be covered by the slide in Jeff Baker’s performance.

At short, Ryan Theriot returns – a decent enough glove man and someone who batted a lot near the top of the order, though – to be fair – he’s really a GREAT number eight hitter.  Andres Blanco returns – a capable infielder.

Finally, you have Aramis Ramirez – as good a hitter as you can find if he’s playing 150 games at third base.  Last year, playing just 82 games, he was as good as expected.  Here’s what makes me nervous – Ramirez turns 32 in June – so he might get back to 140 games, but it could be at a lesser scale.  Chad Tracy is in camp to challenge Bobby Scales for a backup role – else Jeff Baker will be the other option here.  Assuming Ramirez takes up the innings given to others last year, even if Ramirez slips in production by 20 runs, the team will still be better offensively by 10 runs at this position.

As a unit, I see this team declining in offense by ten runs and declining by ten runs defensively.

Outfield:

This is where the Cubs had the biggest failures.  Alfonso Soriano led the group in homers with 20.  Kosuke Fukudome was out of position in center but sensational in right – so to make things better, he needs to stay in right.  But to bring in Marlon Byrd?

Last year, Sam Fuld got a small chance and played well defensively while getting on base at a .400 clip in just 100 at bats or so.  Fuld is NOT going to do that in a full season, but it’s taken the Cubs a long time to get Fuld to the majors after drafting him in the fifth round out of Stanford six years ago.  He’s quick, will bat about .275 to .290, and draw enough walks to be a scary leadoff hitter in front of Lee and Ramirez.  Instead, the Cubs chose to spend money on Marlon Byrd.  Byrd is about four years older, coming off a career year in Texas, and is a liability in centerfield.

If his knees are steady, Soriano could be a pleasant surprise – especially if he agrees to hit sixth and drive in runs rather than pretend to be a leadoff hitter who gets in the way of rallies.  Healthy, he hits .270 with 30 homers.  Another off season, and the Cubs will have an expensive problem for three more years.

Fukudome gets on base and surprises with power.  He’s a good #2 hitter, and his current backup, Xavier Nady – who signed an incentive laden deal on the heels of his multiple shoulder surgeries – would also make for a productive #2 hitter.

Any gains in Soriano’s health and Fukudome’s moving to right full time will be negated by the addition of Marlon Byrd.  This group will likely improve by 20 runs offensively but decline by 20 runs defensively.

Bench:

Kevin Millar will be battling for a pinch hitting role, joining Nady, Baker, Fuld, and Hill in providing one of the deeper and more productive supporting casts in baseball.

Prospects:

If the Cubs have any for 2010, there aren’t many on the 40 man roster – that’s for sure.  This is a veteran club.  On the whole, the prospects are mostly a few years away and only a couple really stand out…

Nobody stood out as a hitter in AAA Iowa (other than Blanco and Fuld), the top pitchers weren’t impressive, though reliever John Gaub had 31.1 solid innings, striking out 40, but walking 16.  Gaub had similar stats (28.2 innings, 40 Ks, 17 walks) in AA.  He’ll get a shot in 2010 – I just don’t know how many innings he’ll get.  Expect Gaub to start in Iowa, though.

Casey Coleman was 14 – 6 with a 3.68 ERA for the AA Tennessee Smokies, but struck out just 84 in 149 innings, so he’s not a long term option.  He is, however, just 21, so if he can find a strikeout pitch, he’ll be on the roster by the end of 2011.  Starlin Castro might be the next big thing, though.  A Dominican shortstop, Castro will turn 20 in spring training, but because the Cubs have options he’ll likely start the year in AA or AAA.  He wasn’t overmatched in 31 AA games last season and had hit .300 or better in rookie ball and in Daytona.  Castro would be my pick as the top prospect in the system.

Daytona had more than just Starlin Castro.  Brandon Guyer hit .347 in half a season in the Florida State League, earning a trip to Tennessee, but he struggled in AA – if he’s going to make it, he has to get it in gear quickly.  Tony Campana is a burner – 55 steals – but it would be nice if he got his OBP a bit higher.  Craig Muschko appeared to turn the corner at Daytona – 19 walks in 103 innings and an improving K rate.  And, Jay Jackson could be the other top prospect – cruising through Daytona with 46 Ks and just 4 walks, moving up to Tennessee where he went 5 – 5 with a decent K rate, and even getting a start at Iowa and winning his only appearance.  A Furman alum, Jackson will make the Cubs in 2010 if for no other reason than to get a cup of coffee in September.  I like him.

2008 #1 draft pick Andrew Cashner made it to Daytona and didn’t disappoint.  Look for him in AA Tennessee, maybe even Iowa for parts of 2010.  Ryan Flaherty, the 1A pick in 2008, will see if he can’t handle more after a 20 homer season at Peoria.  A shortstop with power would look good in Wrigley – but Flaherty is a few years away.  Others in Peoria that may stand out in 2010 will be 2008 draft picks Aaron Shafer and Christopher Carpenter, but the guy with the most stuff might be 2009 Chief Chris Archer, who blew away 119 batters in 109 innings and only allowed 78 hits – with NO homers allowed.

Josh Vitters, the first round pick in 2007, struggled at Daytona after a solid half season in Peoria.  He’ll get a second chance at A+ ball this year – but he’s just 20 and has time to get rolling.  Tyler Colvin, once a first round pick out of Clemson in 2006, got to the majors after shuffling out of the prospect picture.  At 25, he’s running out of time – and as an outfielder, the Cubs seem to like older players…

I should note that the other minor league prospect moving up through the ranks is manager Ryne Sandberg.  Perhaps you’ve heard of him.  After a year in Peoria, he moved up to Tennessee and will start 2010 as the Iowa manager.  If the Cubs get off to a slow start, he’s being groomed to replace Lou Piniella.

Outlook:

The Cubs certainly have the star power to compete, but the cracks that showed up in 2010 weren’t necessarily filled by young new help.  Instead, the Cubs have essentially the same team with one difference – Marlon Byrd instead of Milton Bradley.

I see the Cubs scoring a few more runs than last year – as many as 740, but allowing a few more, too – 700.  That works out to 85 or 86 wins (85.5, but if you carry out another decimal point, you’d round down).  With an improving Milwaukee and a still very good St. Louis, that’s probably good for third place – and at some point, the end of Lou Piniella’s tenure in Chicago.  With a slow start, he could be gone as early as June 1.

However, the guy responsible for Piniella and the rest of the roster is General Manager Jim Hendry.  With a new ownership group in town, when Lou leaves he’ll have someone to hold open the door – Hendry will likely be shown that same door.

Top NL Rightfielders in 2009

Jayson Werth (PHI):  Made more plays defensively in rightfield than Shane Victorino made in center – which is amazing, really.  Throw in 36 homers and a .376 OBP and you have one of the best players in baseball.  (111.3 Runs Created, 24.1 Runs Saved = 135.36 Total Run Production)

Andre Ethier (LAD):  The offense of Werth, but league average defense.  Still – a very potent package.  Any fantasy player worth his salt will take it – and the Dodgers aren’t going to complain either (Ethier?)…  (119.6 Runs Created, -2.09 Runs Saved = 117.55 Total Run Production)

Hunter Pence (HOU):  A great season – above average in all facets of the game, but not a superstar in anything.  The best player on the Astros in 2009.  (102.2 Runs Created, 9.9 Runs Saved = 112.18 Total Run Production)

Justin Upton (ARI):  Still just a kid, he’s had his first really good season and it’s only a matter of time before he becomes Henry Aaron.  Seriously.  (97.9 Runs Created, 8.8 Runs Saved = 106.68 Total Run Production)

Jeff Francoeur (ATL/NYM):  Played much better with the change of scenery…  Showed flashes of this old power and still has the cannon arm.  (84.1 Runs Created, -2.7 Runs Saved = 81.4 Total Run Production)

Kosuke Fukudome (CHC):  Should be here and not in center.  Would actually rank higher than Francoeur probably…

Randy Winn (SF):  Still a fantastic defensive outfielder, but his bat is leaving him – he hit just two homers last season.  The Yankees signed him for defensive insurance – a good idea because he’s really not a starter anymore.  (62.7 Runs Created, 14.00 Runs Saved = 76.70 Total Run Production)

Cody Ross (FLA):  See Kosuke Fukudome, above.  Would rank ahead of Winn, for sure.

Ryan Ludwick (STL):  Injuries nearly prevented him from making the majors, and then they ruined his chance at back-to-back solid seasons.  Didn’t perform at the pace of 2009 and may never will – and yet still had 22 homers and 97 RBI (he hits behind Pujols).  His range defensively fell off the map.  (75.7 Runs Created, -10.1 Runs Saved = 65.65 Total Run Production)

Matt Diaz (ATL):  A better left fielder, but played some here.  He’s a hitter, though.  (77.5 Runs Created, -14.5 Runs Saved = 63.02 Total Run Production)

Brad Hawpe (COL):  Year after year, the worst outfielder in baseball, but hits enough in Colorado to keep his job.  Has cost his team about 100 runs defensively in the last four years.  (89.7 Runs Created, -28.1 Runs Saved = 61.60 Total Run Production)

Garrett Jones (PIT):  Put on quite a show as the season wound down.  Again – the Pirates have HAD talent, but have chosen not to keep it together.  Get him on your fantasy team in 2010.  (67.6 Runs Created, -7.8 Runs Saved = 59.75 Total Run Production)

Jay Bruce (CIN):  The right fielders in the NL weren’t all that great, were they?  Coming in eleventh is a guy who hit .223 with some power, but fielded okay.  (50.4 Runs Created, 8.1 Runs Saved = 58.46 Total Run Production)

Milton Bradley (CHC):  Now in Seattle, and good riddance.  Uninspiring play for all that money and he blames the fans?  To be fair, his power was off and his batting average was down, but he still got on base.  (55.8 Runs Created, 0.3 Runs Saved = 56.11 Total Run Production)

Brandon Moss (PIT):  Not sure if he’s the real deal, but I would love to see him get 500 at bats and see what happens.  It includes a lot of strikeouts, though.  Played solid defensively, too.  (42.1 Runs Created, 12.4 Runs Saved = 54.55 Total Run Production)

Carlos Gonzalez (COL):  Can play here – would rather see him than Hawpe.  Gonzalez had half the playing time and nearly the same overall production…  (49.0 Runs Created, 4.7 Runs Saved = 53.75 Total Run Production)

Will Venable (SD):  Split time with Brian Giles and by the end of the season the job was his.  Hits for power and could have room for growth.  (49.1 Runs Created, 1.3 Runs Saved = 50.42 Total Run Production)

Elijah Dukes (WAS):  As a full-timer, would rank higher.  He’s just not GREAT – rather, he’s okay…  Power, not enough patience, and a tolerable fielder.  (48.8 Runs Created, -1.4 Runs Saved = 47.47 Total Run Production)

Jeremy Hermida (FLA):  His normal position, his attempts to play left notwithstanding.  One hopes he finds his potential…  I wrote about his failings in the Left Field section.  (55.9 Runs Created, -8.7 Runs Saved = 47.20 Total Run Production)

Jonny Gomes (CIN):  Saw more time in left, but wasn’t embarrassing in right either.  Somebody is going to give him a contract – not everyone can hit 20 homers in about 350 at bats.  (52.9 Runs Created, -8.5 Runs Saved = 44.43 Total Run Production)

Corey Hart (MIL):  Tolerable offense, but a horrible year with the glove.  It’s hopefully a fluke and not a Brad Hawpe level problem…  (64.8 Runs Created, -22.0 Runs Saved = 42.82 Total Run Production)

Nate Schierholtz (SF):  May inherit the job.  Good luck.  He’s got young legs, but hasn’t proven that he can hit enough for the position. (34.8 Runs Created, 8.0 Runs Saved = 42.79 Total Run Production)

Brian Giles (SD):  Hit the end of the road with a big clunk.  Sorry to see him go – a great player for a lot of years on some very bad teams.  (19.6 Runs Created, 0.4 Runs Saved = 20.04 Total Run Production)

Top AL Left Fielders in 2009

Jason Bay (BOS):  Now a Met, I think the Red Sox are going to miss this guy.  Had a soft summer, but otherwise was solid.  Gets a bad rap for his defense, but last year I showed him as being 5.3 plays per 800 balls in play better than the average left fielder and worthy of a Gold Glove.  My system says Bay was one of the 20 most valuable position players in baseball.  The Red Sox will move Mike Cameron or Jacoby Ellsbury here – and will lose about 30 runs in total productivity from 2009 to 2010.   (109.0 Runs Created, 17.8 Runs Saved = 126.81 Total Run Production)

Carl Crawford (TB):  Good hitter, good fielder, as daring a baserunner as you can find.  Another top 20 player…   Here’s something to think about.  Is Carl Crawford potentially worthy of the Hall of Fame?  If he can stay healthy, he’d have 2500 career hits and maybe 600 or 700 stolen bases.  We put all sorts of power guys in the Hall, but how about a guy who can scoot, hit, and play solid defense?   (112.9 Runs Created, 12.5 Runs Saved = 125.36 Total Run Production)

Matt Holliday (OAK/STL):  Left town at the trading deadline – was as productive in two months in St. Louis as he was in four months in Oakland…  126.5 Runs Created, -13.4 Runs Saved = 113.1 Total Run Production)

We’ll get to Rajai Davis, your A’s current left fielder in few paragraphs…

Adam Lind (TOR):  Miscast as an outfielder, but is such a good hitter he has to play somewhere.  The best hitter at this position – Bay’s power and Crawford’s batting average.  (127.1 Runs Created, -15.3 Runs Saved = 111.78 Total Run Production)

David DeJesus (KC):  A Carl Crawford clone, but a shade less productive – still a valuable player.  Crawford hits .300, DeJesus about .280; Both are decent fielders with speed, but DeJesus isn’t a base stealer.  (80.9 Runs Created, 18.9 Runs Saved = 99.82 Total Run Production)

Denard Span, the Minnesota outfielder, if he were a regular left fielder would rate here.  Jason Kubel, too.  I’d love to see Kubel play left every day and let Jim Thome DH as much as possible.  The Twins would improve so much offensively…

Johnny Damon (NYY):  Now in Detroit, Damon is still a productive hitter as he moves into his late 30s…  His legs are getting in the way of his having solid range anymore and he can’t throw.  Somebody could use him as a DH and part time outfielder.  The new left fielder, Curtis Granderson, was barely two runs more productive than Damon, but since Granderson would be moving to an easier position, he might make up for it with a few more defensive runs.  (102.7 Runs Created, -12.3 Runs Saved = 90.38 Total Run Production)

Scott Podsednik (CWS):  Now a Royal, played 615 innings here and few hundred more in center…  Slapped a few hits, but doesn’t do much else.  Can steal a few bases.  The Royals hope he’ll be better than what they got for signing Coco Crisp…  (81.5 Runs Created, 4.7 Runs Saved, 86.24 Total Run Production)

Juan Rivera (LAA):  An above average player – hits for power and a decent average, isn’t hurting you in the field too much.  He’s better than Gary Matthews, for sure.  (84.0 Runs Created, -3.0 Runs Saved = 80.99 Total Run Production)

Rajai Davis (OAK):  He can run, he can field, he can throw a little.  Davis can hit .300, but he has little power.  If David DeJesus is a poor man’s Carl Crawford, Davis is a poor man’s David DeJesus with younger wheels.  Still – he’s an above average performer and with a full season’s at bats, might get 200 hits.  (69.1 Runs Created, 2.4 Runs Saved = 71.58 Total Run Production)

Juan Pierre, if he were to be ranked in the AL based on his Dodger stats, would rank here.  If the White Sox think he’s a centerfielder, they are grossly mistaken.  He’s a combination of Johnny Damon’s defense and Rajai Davis’s offense.

Ryan Rayburn (DET):  The Tigers used three people here for the most part (Rayburn, Carlos Guillen, and Josh Anderson) and Rayburn got the most innings.  Rayburn has some skills – hits for a nice average with power (.291 BA, .533 SLG, .360 OBP) and looks to have wheels in the outfield.  As such, I’d like to see him play more.  A full season of Rayburn at this rate would rank in the top five – assuming he can play at this pace for 150 games.  (50.7 Runs Created, 14.27 Runs Saved = 64.94 Total Run Production.

David Murphy (TEX): The new Juan Encarnacion.  (65.4 Runs Created, -1.1 Run Saved = 64.33 Total Run Production)

Nolan Reimold (BAL):  The rookie played great until getting injured in the late summer.  Reimold didn’t look comfortable as an outfielder but he got his hitting wheels down as the season rolled on…  As with Rayburn, I’d like to see what would happen if he got 500 at bats.  Felix Pie isn’t a bad option here, either.  (61.9 Runs Created, -5.2 Runs Saved = 56.70 Total Run Production)

Carlos Quentin (CWS):  It was only a half a season, but he was still marginally productive.  I hope he can get back to where he was in 2008 – the Sox need all the help they can get.  (50.9 Runs Created, -3.4 Runs Saved = 47.51 Total Run Production)

Delmon Young (MIN):  Delmon Young has done nothing to suggest he deserves a starting position on any roster.  Borderline power and batting average, poor fielder.  It’s time for the Twins to move on.  And, I would NEVER have made that trade with Tampa to get him and give up Jason Bartlett AND Matt Garza.  (50.1 Runs Created, -10.2 Runs Saved, 39.90 Total Run Production)

Five Unproductive Guys (SEA):  Wladimir Balentien, Bill Hall, Ryan Langerhans, Michael Saunders, and Endy Chavez all got between 175 and 350 innings here and nobody stands out.  All five guys were great defensively, oddly, but none of them could hit his way out of a paper sack.  Milton Bradley or Eric Byrnes will get the next shot here – and it HAS to be better than what they got last year.  At least Bradley can hit – and Byrnes has a great attitude.  Combined, they’d be a heck of a player.

A Long Weekend of Deals – Catching Up on Hot Stove News…

Kevin Kouzmanoff heads north, going from San Diego to Oakland in a four player deal.  San Diego acquires Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham for the veteran third baseman and minor leaguer Eric Sogard.  Kouzmanoff will get playing time and serves as an insurance policy lest Eric Chavez cannot recover from back problems. [SI]

And, with the chances pretty strong that Jerry Hairston will also sign with the Padres, it makes us long for Edgar Gonzalez, because San Diego would have had two pairs of brothers and the son of former Padre Tony Gwynn.  Nepotism?  [FoxSports]

Adam LaRoche chose to sign with Arizona, getting $6 million and a mutual option for 2011.  From the sounds of it, LaRoche chose Arizona and a one year deal over other places (like San Francisco) that had offered two year deals because (a) he’ll likely have better stats, and (b) if he does have a great season, he’ll have better options for a contract in the next offseason.  Once LaRoche signed his deal, the Diamondbacks designated Eric Byrnes for assignment – despite having one more expensive year left on a three-year deal. [MLB]

The Florida Marlins, possibly pressured by MLB and the MLBPA, signed pitcher Josh Johnson to a four-year, $39 million deal with other incentives – a slightly better deal than the one given Zack Greinke.  [MLB]

The White Sox signed reliever Bobby Jenks ($7.5 million) and outfielder Carlos Quentin ($3.2 million) to one-year deals.  [MLB]

The Pirates are filling out the bullpen, inking Brendan Donnelly to an incentive-laden deal, as well as D.J. Carrasco (minor league deal), and are chasing Octavio Dotel.  [MLB]

The Indians signed Mike Redmond to a one-year deal.  Redmond is an excellent veteran to back Lou Marson (and my favorite backup catcher, ever).  [MLB]

From the Hot Stove to the Law:

Legal Analyst Michael McCann says that we shouldn’t expect confessions from Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, or Rafael Palmeiro any time soon.  [SI]

Milton Bradley may be through with the Cubs, but not Chicago – as he is being sued by his Chicago-based landlord for rent and other obligations.  [FanHouse]

Jose Offerman punched an umpire in a Dominican Winter League game.  Offerman, who was managing in Licey, has now been permanently banned from the league.  This is Offerman’s second on-field assault.  [SI]

Happy Birthday! On this Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday, those celebrating birthdays include Curt Flood – whose challenge of the reserve clause (he didn’t want to be traded) was kind of the first significant movement toward free agency – as the Boston Tea Party was to the American Revolution.  Flood was born in 1938.

Others celebrating include Bill McGowen (1896), pitcher Carl Morton (1944), Billy Grabarkewitz (1946), Scott McGregor (1954), Mike Lieberthal (1972), and Wandy Rodriguez (1979).

Mariners, Cubs Exchange Headaches…

On the heels of an all-star season, the Cubs signed Milton Bradley to a three-year deal – GM Jim Hendry knowing that it could implode as quickly as I eat a bag of M&Ms.  After three good seasons in four – not great, but good – the Mariners gave $48 million to Carlos Silva hoping he would eat as many innings as I eat M&Ms as a member of the Seattle rotation.

Neither idea worked out.  Bradley’s performance slipped and his attitude sunk, eventually blaming fans and the media and the Cubs of a variety of things including a bad atmosphere, racism, and the ghost of Mike Royko.  Silva won all of five games, losing nearly twenty, served up more hits than Motown, and and made Mariners fans long for the days of Mike Moore.

Sometimes a change of scenery (and cash) makes things better.  So, now Carlos Silva is a member of the Cubs and Milton Bradley is a Mariner.

Look – this can work for the Mariners if Bradley chooses to play and enjoy his last chance (this is, what, his eighth team in nine major league seasons?).  He can hit – he can still run a little, but his fielding isn’t what you’d like it to be.  I mean, Bradley is a better hitter than Silva is a pitcher.  Bradley has a little power, is patient (at least at the plate), and can hit for a nice average.

Silva, however, is a big time question mark.  He throws strikes and he throws a hard sinker.  I watched his last few outings in 2009 after he came back from a shoulder injury and it seemed to me that he was leaving his pitches up – way up – and that’s going to lead to a lot of homers.  Shouldn’t a guy who throws a hard sinker be getting burrowing grounders all day?  At best, he’s a spot starter and long reliever for the Cubs – assuming he really is healthy.

Anyway – two of the worst free agent signings of the last few years are going to get a second (eighth?) chance.  Good luck to both of them.

Meanwhile, the Mariners resigned outfielder Ryan Langerhans to a one-year, $525K deal…  I wonder how much playing time he’ll get with Bradley on the roster?  If he’s ever going to break out, this would be the right season.

Glad to Have You Around!

The Phillies picked up the 2011 option year for Jimmy Rollins, keeping their gold glove shortstop around at least two more seasons.  Rollins will make $7.5 million in 2010, and $8.5 million in 2011.  [ESPN]

Scott Rolen agreed to defer $5 million (as a signing bonus) of what would have been the last year of his contract in 2009 in exchange for two additional years at $6.5 million guaranteed.  The Reds had hoped to work with Rolen because (a) they wanted more financial flexibility in 2010 and (b) they liked having Rolen on the team.  [ESPN]

I Guess We’re Stuck With You:

Mike Lowell’s injured thumb will require surgery.  This means that the trade between the Red Sox and Rangers, which would have sent Mike Lowell and enough cash to cover 75% of his salary to Texas for catching prospect Max Ramirez, is now over.  At least until Spring Training…  [MLB]

Happy Birthday!

One of the great lists of birthdays in terms of interesting people and legends of baseball so rather than point out one person who stands above the rest, I’ll just go with the list…

Harry Stovey (1856), Jimmy Williams (1876)…  Jimmy Williams was Rube Waddell’s teammate three different times, so I have a pretty good grasp of his career.  When he first started, he was a pretty good hitting third baseman.  When the league changed the foul/strike rule his batting average fell some, but he was still okay for most of the first decade of the last century.  He famously struggled in the 1900 postseason with a ton of throwing errors (something he struggled with his first two years in Pittsburgh), which hastened his move from third base to second base.  Williams was the first Pirate stolen in the NL/AL wars when the AL first got started, signing with Baltimore (who became the Yankees) and helped immensely when they made their surprise run in the 1904 season.  He eventually moved to St. Louis where he helped the Browns in the 1908 pennant race.  When he couldn’t hit AL pitching, Williams played successfully in the American Association where he was a star for the Minneapolis Millers…

Continuing…  Branch Rickey (1881), Fred Merkle (1888), Gabby Hartnett (1900), Spud Davis (1904), Julio Becquet (1931), Oscar Gamble and Cecil Cooper (1949), Jose DeLeon (1960), Aubrey Huff (1976),  David DeJesus (1979), and David Wright (1982).  I mean – that’s a lot of major league talent and historical people…

Afterthoughts…

Turns out that Sammy Sosa won’t be sued after all – a judge threw out a case brought against Sosa by a business associate for insufficient evidence.  [ESPN]