Rating the Pitchers: 2012 National League

In rating pitchers, my system looks at the number of runs allowed per nine by each pitcher, then is modified by a couple of things – the park in which he pitches, and the defense of the players behind him.  When I have that, I compare the number of runs he allowed to what the average pitcher might have allowed in the same number of innings to get a positive number of runs saved, or a negative number of runs – essentially how many additional runs that pitcher cost his team. In case you were curious, the average NL pitcher allowed 4.3054 runs per nine…

A pitcher in Colorado had a lot of things going against him.  First, games in Colorado scored about 400 more runs (5 per game for both teams combined) than Rockies road games.  Then, the defense behind him was brutal – costing pitchers an extra 100 runs.  Meanwhile, the pitchers in San Francisco got help from the park, and the team’s fielders (about 45 runs).

Top Starters:

37.91 Kris Medlin, ATL (138.00 innings)
33.34 Johnny Cueto, CIN (217.00)
31.06 Kyle Lohse, STL (211.00)
30.34 Clayton Kershaw, LAD (227.67)
28.98 R.A. Dickey, NYM (233.67)

22.27 Ryan Dempster, CHC (104.00)
21.95 Gio Gonzalez, WAS (199.33)
21.79 Cole Hamels, PHI (215.33)
21.15 Wade Miley, ARZ (194.67)
20.83 Cliff Lee, PHI (211.00)

Honorable Mentions:

Jordan Zimmermann
Yovani Gallardo
Matt Cain
Mat Latos
Zack Greinke

The NL Cy Young award went to Dickey, the uniqueness of his being a knuckleballer making his season seem so improbable – given how baseball loves smoke or power and loathes gimmicks.  Still, the system says that the most effective pitcher was a guy who pitched essentially a half-season (half a season from 15 years ago), which will happen from time to time.  Medlin finished with a 1.57 ERA, gave up fewer than a baserunner per inning and allowed but a homer every 23 innings.  Personally, I would have voted for Dickey and then Johnny Cueto, who didn’t get the same kind of help from his defense or park as Dickey.

Ryan Dempster didn’t pitch nearly as well in Boston as he did in Chicago before he left, and the Phillies decline can partially be traced to losing the performance of an ace (Roy Halliday).  Additional props shall be given to Clayton Kershaw who essentially repeated his Cy Young performance from 2011.

Kyle Lohse can’t get an offer from someone?  People remember too well how he pitched before he got to St. Louis and must think that he can’t carry this to another team…

Top Relievers:

22.41 Craig Kimbrel, ATL (62.67 innings)
21.73 Aroldis Chapman, CIN (71.67)
16.19 Mitchell Boggs, STL (73.33)
14.38 Rafael Betancourt, COL (57.67)
14.37 Wilton Lopez, HOU (66.33)

13.72 Brad Ziegler, ARI (68.67)
13.56 David Hernandez, ARI (68.33)
13.54 Luke Gregerson, SD (71.67)
13.53 Craig Stammen, WAS (88.33)
13.25 Matt Belisle, COL (80.00)

Honorable Mention:

Sergio Romo
Jason Motte
Eric O’Flaherty
Sean Marshall
Jonathan Papelbon

Craig Kimbral was only slightly more effective than Aroldis Chapman, who will likely become a starter.  Both pitchers were crazy good – Kimbrel allowing just 27 hits and 14 walks in 62.2 innings, while striking out 116 batters.  Chapman pitched nine more innings, gave up a few more hits and a few more walks, and struck out a hair fewer per nine.  Those two were well ahead of the next guy (Boggs), and to be honest, there wasn’t much difference between the next several guys.

Rafael Betancourt may be the best setup man in baseball and has been for many, many years now.

Worst Pitchers:

-44.88 Tim Lincecum, SF (186 tortuous innings)
-28.58 Erik Bedard, PIT (125.67)
-26.23 Chris Volstad, CHC (111.33)
-25.96 Jordan Lyles, HOU (141.33)
-24.77 Ross Ohlendorf, SD (48.67)

-22.07 Kevin Correia, PIT (171.00)
-21.56 Barry Zito, SF (184.33)
-20.41 Justin Germano, CHC (64.00)
-20.12 Jair Jurrjens, ATL (48.33)
-19.15 Tommy Hanson, ATL (174.67)

Usually, Tim Lincecum is on the top starter list – and the Giants gave him every chance to get his season on track.  Instead, he finished 10 – 15 and didn’t miss a start.  His K/9 rate was still pretty good, but he walked too many guys and was hurt by the long ball.  Throw in the fact that his defense and park were actually HELPING him, and that 5.18 ERA is even worse, really.

That both San Francisco and Atlanta were able to make it to the post season with TWO starters who were killing them is impressive.  And Pittsburgh was loaded with poor starters and still were competitive for most of the season.

In the case of Jurrjens and Ross Ohlendorf, this was the case of eight or nine brutal starts rather than a full season of below average misery.  Ohlendorf was allowing more than 4.5 runs than the average pitcher every nine innings.

Torre: Manny, A-Rod, Other PED Users are “Hall of Fame Type Players”

Joe Torre, backing the multitude of players who were using PEDs, says that Bonds, Manny, Clemens, and A-Rod were Hall of Fame type players before they used – not that he thinks that means they should get in.  Torre has no problem standing behind his players, as they helped make Torre look like a winner after years of losing in Atlanta, St. Louis, and New York (Mets).  Let me ask you this:  Is Joe Torre a Hall of Fame manager now that we know how many of his players were using under his watch? [MLB]

San Francisco, as surmised, placed Randy Johnson on the DL with a strained throwing shoulder, a shoulder injured while batting. [MLB]

Pedro Martinez has a new suitor – the Philadelphia Phillies.  This despite reports that when other clubs scouted Pedro in June, he looked “unimpressive”.  MGR Charlie Manuel wants a horse, but may have to settle for a five or six inning guy. [MLB]

Ryan Freel’s best asset is his mobility – he gets around.  And now, Freel joins his fourth team in about 18 months – the Cubs traded him to the Royals for a Player to be Named Later.  According to FoxSports (quoting AP sources), Freel told Royals MGR Trey Hillman that he’s been bothered by a concussion (hit in the head with the ball while diving back to first on a pickoff play) and bad hamstring, which has contributed to Freel’s hitting .140 with the Cubs.  The Cubs are picking up part of Freel’s salary.  [FoxSports]

When Marc Rzepczynski makes his debut Tuesday, he’ll be the fifth Blue Jay to make his debut in 2009 – breaking the team record set when the Blue Jays entered the majors in 1977.  Rzepczynski is a lefty with skills – his K/9 rate has improved though he still needs to work on his control; he keeps the ball in the park.  Statistically, he reminds you of Kevin Brown. [FoxSports]

Tigers MGR Jim Leyland says that rookie Rick Porcello will not pitch until after the All-Star break, getting the kid some much needed rest.

Welcome Back!  Padre reliever Luke Gregerson; Rockies pitcher Franklin Morales; Cubs pitcher Angel Guzman; Cubs outfielder Reed Johnson; Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez; Royals catcher John Buck…

Hurry Back!  Padre David Eckstein goes to the DL with a pulled hammy; Red Sox 1B Jeff Bailey (high ankle sprain); Cubs pitcher David Patton (groin strain); Mets outfielder Angel Pagan starts a rehab stint, as does Brave Kelly Johnson and Phillies reliever Jack Taschner.

2009 Season Forecast: San Diego Padres

Done while eating a Turkey Melt at my desk:

San Diego Padres
2008: 63 – 99 Last in NL West
Runs Scored: 637 Lowest in NL
Runs Allowed: 759 7th in NL and most in the division.

This, of course, despite the fact that the park is a cavern, making everyone’s ERA about a half a run better than it would be anywhere else, and making hitters look worse. Padres and their opponents scored nearly 170 runs in road games more than in home games, the biggest discrepancy in the NL.

OFFENSE:

The good ones are better than you think – Adrian Gonzales is awesome, Jody Gerut and Brian Giles were very good. Chase Headley wasn’t bad, Kevin Kouzmanoff is tolerable. Nick Hundley, Tadihito Iguchi, and Khalil Green were atrocious – even after you cut them slack for the park. Few part timers were any good.

DEFENSE:

Average at best. The middle infield was below average (Greene, Iguchi, Gonzales), and except for Giles (who is old and immobile), the outfield was pretty good. Okay team efficiency, didn’t make too many errors. The catching was the second worst in the NL – Josh Bard and Hundley were bad and couldn’t stop the running game.

PITCHING:

Jake Peavy and Heath Bell are great. Chris Young and Trevor Hoffman were average at best, as was Cla Meredith. The rest were below average, including Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Cha Seung Baek, and Josh Banks. The bullpen had holes. They need a serious upgrade.

CHANGES:

Greene to St. Louis, David Eckstein in to play 2B. Jody Gerut moved full-time (since moved), more Chase Headley is good. Kevin Correia added from SF, Josh Geer added from AAA to rotation. Hoffman allowed to go to Brew-Crew, Bell now closer. Rookies all over the bullpen (Luke Gregerson, Edward Mujica, others).

OUTLOOK:

I don’t see how this is better. I guess a full season (never happened) of Chris Young is good. Headley and Gerut full time is better. Luis Rodriguez or Everth Cabrera, the new SS, has GOT to be better than Greene played last year. Okay – maybe 30 runs better for the pitching staff, but the defense isn’t getting better and the offense isn’t really BETTER as much as it’s not going to be too much worse unless Giles loses it and Hundley can’t improve. Correia wasn’t that good in SF, and he doesn’t have the other numbers to help out. I’ll predict 650 scored and 740 allowed. That’s still just 71 wins.

The two nice win streaks look good, but they had a 4 – 19 stretch in between. Figure that things balance out, and the they’ll start hurting when they leave the NL West to play other teams. But, as it stands, the 24 – 23 record they have right now is a mirage.