In rating pitchers, my system looks at the number of runs allowed per nine by each pitcher, then is modified by a couple of things – the park in which he pitches, and the defense of the players behind him. When I have that, I compare the number of runs he allowed to what the average pitcher might have allowed in the same number of innings to get a positive number of runs saved, or a negative number of runs – essentially how many additional runs that pitcher cost his team. In case you were curious, the average NL pitcher allowed 4.3054 runs per nine…
A pitcher in Colorado had a lot of things going against him. First, games in Colorado scored about 400 more runs (5 per game for both teams combined) than Rockies road games. Then, the defense behind him was brutal – costing pitchers an extra 100 runs. Meanwhile, the pitchers in San Francisco got help from the park, and the team’s fielders (about 45 runs).
37.91 Kris Medlin, ATL (138.00 innings)
33.34 Johnny Cueto, CIN (217.00)
31.06 Kyle Lohse, STL (211.00)
30.34 Clayton Kershaw, LAD (227.67)
28.98 R.A. Dickey, NYM (233.67)
22.27 Ryan Dempster, CHC (104.00)
21.95 Gio Gonzalez, WAS (199.33)
21.79 Cole Hamels, PHI (215.33)
21.15 Wade Miley, ARZ (194.67)
20.83 Cliff Lee, PHI (211.00)
The NL Cy Young award went to Dickey, the uniqueness of his being a knuckleballer making his season seem so improbable – given how baseball loves smoke or power and loathes gimmicks. Still, the system says that the most effective pitcher was a guy who pitched essentially a half-season (half a season from 15 years ago), which will happen from time to time. Medlin finished with a 1.57 ERA, gave up fewer than a baserunner per inning and allowed but a homer every 23 innings. Personally, I would have voted for Dickey and then Johnny Cueto, who didn’t get the same kind of help from his defense or park as Dickey.
Ryan Dempster didn’t pitch nearly as well in Boston as he did in Chicago before he left, and the Phillies decline can partially be traced to losing the performance of an ace (Roy Halliday). Additional props shall be given to Clayton Kershaw who essentially repeated his Cy Young performance from 2011.
Kyle Lohse can’t get an offer from someone? People remember too well how he pitched before he got to St. Louis and must think that he can’t carry this to another team…
22.41 Craig Kimbrel, ATL (62.67 innings)
21.73 Aroldis Chapman, CIN (71.67)
16.19 Mitchell Boggs, STL (73.33)
14.38 Rafael Betancourt, COL (57.67)
14.37 Wilton Lopez, HOU (66.33)
13.72 Brad Ziegler, ARI (68.67)
13.56 David Hernandez, ARI (68.33)
13.54 Luke Gregerson, SD (71.67)
13.53 Craig Stammen, WAS (88.33)
13.25 Matt Belisle, COL (80.00)
Craig Kimbral was only slightly more effective than Aroldis Chapman, who will likely become a starter. Both pitchers were crazy good – Kimbrel allowing just 27 hits and 14 walks in 62.2 innings, while striking out 116 batters. Chapman pitched nine more innings, gave up a few more hits and a few more walks, and struck out a hair fewer per nine. Those two were well ahead of the next guy (Boggs), and to be honest, there wasn’t much difference between the next several guys.
Rafael Betancourt may be the best setup man in baseball and has been for many, many years now.
-44.88 Tim Lincecum, SF (186 tortuous innings)
-28.58 Erik Bedard, PIT (125.67)
-26.23 Chris Volstad, CHC (111.33)
-25.96 Jordan Lyles, HOU (141.33)
-24.77 Ross Ohlendorf, SD (48.67)
-22.07 Kevin Correia, PIT (171.00)
-21.56 Barry Zito, SF (184.33)
-20.41 Justin Germano, CHC (64.00)
-20.12 Jair Jurrjens, ATL (48.33)
-19.15 Tommy Hanson, ATL (174.67)
Usually, Tim Lincecum is on the top starter list – and the Giants gave him every chance to get his season on track. Instead, he finished 10 – 15 and didn’t miss a start. His K/9 rate was still pretty good, but he walked too many guys and was hurt by the long ball. Throw in the fact that his defense and park were actually HELPING him, and that 5.18 ERA is even worse, really.
That both San Francisco and Atlanta were able to make it to the post season with TWO starters who were killing them is impressive. And Pittsburgh was loaded with poor starters and still were competitive for most of the season.
In the case of Jurrjens and Ross Ohlendorf, this was the case of eight or nine brutal starts rather than a full season of below average misery. Ohlendorf was allowing more than 4.5 runs than the average pitcher every nine innings.