2010 Top AL Third Basemen

Evan Longoria – TB (125.6 Runs Created, 31.1 Runs Saved = 156.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Not sure if people thought he was as good as Robinson Cano last year (including me), but once you add up the numbers, he was the most valuable player in the AL last year.  A remarkable ballplayer.

Adrian Beltre – BOS (116.5 Runs Created, 19.0 Runs Saved = 135.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Now THAT’s a contract year season, huh?  He has this kind of ability, and if he did this every year he’d be headed to the Hall of Fame.  Instead, he’s heading to Texas.  Kevin Youkilis, certainly capable of this kind of productivity when healthy, will get the nod in 2011.

Jose Lopez – SEA (60.7 Runs Created, 36.9 Runs Saved = 97.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Handled the move from second to third very nicely, playing with surprisingly good range and avoiding mistakes often made by first timers to the hot corner.  Doesn’t have much power left, and I don’t think he can repeat this performance.  Now, he’s in Colorado, which means that Chone Figgins will return to third base.

Miguel Tejada – BAL (75.8 Runs Created, 21.2 Runs Saved = 97.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Wasn’t really cutting it offensively, but did a great job as a third baseman.  Was sent to San Diego for the stretch drive where he returned to the shortstop position and gave him a little bit of life.  He can still play well enough to help somebody.  Josh Bell didn’t cut it as his back up, and former Snake basher, Mark Reynolds, will get the job in 2010.

Michael Young – TEX (94.0 Runs Created, -10.3 Runs Saved = 83.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Plays every day, hits a bit, and got better defensively in his second year at the position.  Yes – Beltre is a step up from Young, but you don’t want guys like Young to go away.  Could get 150 games backing up both Kinsler and Beltre and playing DH from time to time.

Alex Rodriguez – NYY (85.0 Runs Created, -2.4 = 82.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Superficially, he hit the 30/100 milestones.  Defensively, he’s gotten better the longer he has played third base, but his bat is slipping (age, lack of chemical help) and his health is no longer dependable for 150 games.

Mark Reynolds, your new Oriole 3B, would rank here at 79.7 Total Runs Productivity…

Brandon Inge – DET (67.6 Runs Created, 11.0 Runs Saved = 78.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Can still play the position well, but is – at best – a league average hitter.

At 71.8 Total Runs Productivity, former Indian Jhonny Peralta would rank here.  I just can’t tell if he’s moving back to third base soon.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – OAK (64.0 Runs Created, -1.5 Runs Saved = 62.5 Total Runs Productivity)

A dependable player, but not one you can build a team around.

Alberto Callaspo – KC/LAA (66.4 Runs Created, -7.5 Runs Saved = 58.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Has had better years, but I’m not sure he’s a long term solution for the Angels, who gave up on their other options in 2010.  The Royals gave the job to Wilson Betemit, but he’ll be a bench option before too long.  For the Angels, it’s hard to see who might be the third baseman of the future – so Callaspo better put his career back in gear.

Danny Valencia – MIN (48.8 Runs Created, -1.2 Runs Saved = 47.6 Total Runs Productivity)

The Boca Raton native and Hurricane grad got the call in 2010 and did well enough, helping produce a few runs and battling the position to a draw.  He might show a little more power as he ages, but isn’t going to be a bomber.  I’d call him the new Joe Randa.  Nick Punto and Brendan Harris are both pretty good third baseman (Punto with the glove and Harris, occasionally, with the bat), but Punto will start 2011 on the DL following surgery to repair a sports hernia and Harris is in Baltimore where he may or may not play 100 games.

Edwin Encarnacion – TOR (48.1 Runs Created, -4.5 Runs Saved = 43.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Not very consistent, but he really can be a good player.  Bautista, if he played here every day and hit like he did last year would move WAY up the list, and he handled the position defensively better than Edwin did.

Jayson Nix – CLE (35.0 Runs Created, 1.8 Runs Saved = 36.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Not even sure he’ll start, since MLB.com lists Jason Donald as the prospective starting third baseman (and he didn’t log an inning at third in 2010) – which makes it hard to figure who to draft in a full AL Only fantasy league.  Neither Donald, Nix, or Andy Marte cut it last year after Peralta left.

Wilson Betemit – 53.4 Runs Created, -21.4 Run Saved = 32.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Hit better than he would have expected (13 – 43 – .297 in 84 games), and fielded much worse than expected.  He’s really somewhere in between there and worth having on the team.  However, the Michael Moustakas era will begin in 2011 – and the question is how long will the Royals wait for that to get started?  Opening Day?  June – to push back arbitration eligibility a year?  Moustakas hit 36 homers in AA and AA last year and is just 22.

Mark Teahen – CHI (28.0 Runs Created, -9.9 Runs Saved = 18.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Reason #2 why the White Sox didn’t win the AL Central.  Teahen was brought here from Kansas City to at least give league average production, and he couldn’t stay healthy, he couldn’t hit enough, and his glove wasn’t working either at three positions.  May get another chance, but I’m not sure I’d want to be the guy to give it to him.  Brett Morel may be the man of the future, having earned a shot after three solid years of growth in the minors.  Morel looks like he has a little power and a little speed – and at 24 just after Opening Day, he has room for growth.

Omar Vizquel – CHI (38.8 Runs Created, -27.0 Runs Saved = 11.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Reason #1 why the White Sox didn’t win the AL Central.  Vizquel was pressed into playing more than 500 innings here, after never being a third baseman before.  He’s not the run producer most teams expect at this position, and he looked very much old and out of place.

Brandon Wood – LAA (8.9 Runs Created, -11.4 Runs Saved = -2.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Can we declare his days as a prospect over now?

Advertisements

Top NL Third Basemen in 2009

Ryan Zimmerman (WAS):  The Evan Longoria of the National League – hits for a decent average, has solid power, gets on base, and flashes the leather.  As a hitter, I show Zimmerman as actually creating three more runs than Longoria, but Longoria had the better season defensively.  The best player the Nationals have ever had.  (117.9 Runs Created, 15.0 Runs Saved = 132.82 Total Run Production)

Casey Blake (LAD):  Had a decent season with the bat and an unbelievable year with the glove.  Kemp, Loney, and Ethier get all the pub, but Casey Blake was second on the team in total production.  I went back and checked – he hadn’t played that well at third defensively before, so I won’t be surprised if he falls back in 2010, but his offensive numbers were in line with previous seasons.  Another guy the Indians couldn’t use…  (91.1 Runs Created, 25.23 Runs Saved = 116.35 Total Run Production)

Pablo Sandoval (SF):  Kung Fu Panda is a first baseman in waiting, but wow can he hit.  He wasn’t AWFUL at third base, just below average defensively, but you can live with it if he hits .330 with 25 homers.  The new Kirby Puckett.  (122.4 Runs Created, -6.4 Runs Saved = 115.94 Total Run Production)

Mark Reynolds (ARI):  As long as we’re comparing people, Reynolds is an upgrade over Adam Dunn, right?  He strikes out a LOT – but 44 homers and a .351 OBP is really good production.  However just 102 RBI suggests that he’d be even more productive for his teammates if he would just make more contact.  Not a horrible fielder either – slightly better than the Panda.  (104.6 Runs Created, -4.4 Runs Saved = 100.26 Total Run Production)

Andy LaRoche (PIT):  Did you know he had that good a glove?  Just an ordinary hitter – .260 with .400 SLG and a few walks throw in for good – but his defense moved him well up the list.  You can’t sneeze at 34 double plays to just 14 errors.  (69.0 Runs Created, 30.3 Runs Saved = 99.29 Total Run Production)

Jorge Cantu (FLA):  If a third baseman and not a first baseman, Cantu would rank about here.  Maybe a slot or two lower.

Pedro Feliz (PHI):  Had Andy LaRoche’s season with more RBI because of who he bats behind.  Polanco has a better batting average, but I don’t think he’ll match Feliz with the leather.  Feliz’s problem, if he has one, is that he makes too many outs.  You want guys who average at least 5 runs for every 27 outs, and Feliz is consistently around 4.2.  However, there aren’t many guys who save you 20 runs a year with the leather – and he’s been there three of the last four years (only an injury riddled 2008 didn’t add up).  So, you might concede 20 runs of offense for that.  I like Polanco, but Feliz was a big part of the Phillies’ success.  (68.6 Runs Created, 24.5 Runs Saved = 93.15 Total Run Production)

David Wright (NYM):  Not his best effort, but then again I think the park worked against him, and the injuries around him worked against him, and eventually he was dragged down by the entirety of it all.  He still produced runs – he batted .307 and got on base nearly 40% of the time.  However, his home run numbers dashed (the Mets are lowering the left field wall for 2010) and he took his frustration to the field – only 19 double plays against 18 errors.  I like his chances to bounce back some, but he’s never going to be as good as Ryan Zimmerman.  I just hope the Mets appreciate what he does and doesn’t focus on that gap between Wright and the top guys.  (102.9 Runs Created, -13.3 Runs Saved = 89.61 Total Run Production)

Scott Rolen (TOR/CIN):  Add it all up and he ranks about here.  I don’t think he’s a .320 hitter, as he was in Toronto for the first 100 days, but he still has skills.  He is NOT a glove man anymore, and while he’s more dependable than Edwin Encarnacion, he may not be healtier every month.  Still a good player, though.  (84.1 Runs Created, -5.6 Runs Saved = 78.5 Total Run Production)

Juan Uribe (SF):  If rated as a third baseman would fall about here.  He’s a solid player.

Chipper Jones (ATL):  His OBP is still strong, but the end is nearing for this future Hall of Famer.  Hasn’t really measured up with the glove in years, and his offensive numbers – while still pretty good – are heading in the wrong direction.  (87.7 Runs Created, -18.1 Runs Saved = 69.56 Total Run Production)

Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD):  Only three errors last year – one of the best fielding percentages of all time.  Of course, he doesn’t have much range – so that makes him Ron Cey with longer legs.  He’ll help the A’s, though.  (78.0 Runs Created, -8.9 Runs Saved = 69.05 Total Run Production)

Casey McGehee (MIL):  Had a solid season at the plate (.301 AVG, .499 SLG), taking over for Bill Hall (who didn’t) and was tolerable with the glove.  If he plays 150 games, he might move up two or three slots in the rankings for 2010.  (68.3 Runs Created, -4.1 Runs Saved = 64.27 Total Run Production)

Aramis Ramirez (CHC):  I don’t know if he’ll ever play 120 games again – his body just breaks down constantly now.  Still a formidable offensive force, his glove is merely average these days.  Makes the Cubs better when he’s in there, though.  (58.1 Runs Created, -1.0 Runs Saved = 57.02 Total Run Production)

Mark DeRosa (CLE/STL):  Struggled upon arriving in STL, but his defense had been off all season.  Reaching the age at which a comeback isn’t in the Cards – but the Cards will be counting on one.  (77.6 Runs Created, -26.8 Runs Saved – 50.80 Total Run Production)

Emilio Bonifacio (FLA):  Really fast.  Had an awesome first week of the season and then reverted to where I thought he’d be – which is not much of a hitter and slightly out of position at third base.  In Florida, though, he’s the new Alfredo Amezaga.  (44.0 Runs Created, -7.7 Runs Saved = 36.22 Total Run Production)

Ian Stewart (COL):  A Garrett Atkins clone.  Hits for some power, his batting average should scare you, and he can’t field the position.  New Rockie Melvin Mora is a significant step up, even at this point in Mora’s career.  (58.1 Runs Created, -23.4 Runs Saved = 34.68 Total Run Production).

Edwin Encarnacion (CIN/TOR):  I don’t know why Toronto would want him.  Indifferent fielder and not a dependable hitter.  Probably one more year of 100 games in his career, and the rest of the time he’ll be a back up or playing in AAA as an insurance policy for somebody.  Maybe he needs to go to Japan.  (39.8 Runs Created, -7.2 Runs Saved = 32.6 Total Run Production)

Wes Helms (FLA):  Back up third baseman and professional pinch hitter – but ranked nearly as high as Stewart in far less time.  (30.19 Total Run Productiom)

Garrett Atkins (COL):  See Ian Stewart.  (33.4 Runs Created, -7.4 Runs Saved = 25.98 Total Run Production)

Geoff Blum (HOU):  See Ian Stewart – but with less power.  If Houston wants to be serious about fixing the problems on the team, it should start with replacing Blum.  (46.2 Runs Created, -23.6 Runs Saved = 22.62 Total Run Production)

Top AL Third Basemen in 2009

Evan Longoria (TB):  No sophomore slump here, huh?  One of the better offensive performers (33 – 113 – .281), draws a few walks, and is as good a defender at his position as there is in the game.  Other than a couple of first basemen and maybe Joe Mauer, nobody was more valuable in the American League.  (114.0 Runs Scored, 31.91 Runs Saved = 146.76 Total Run Production)

If he was a full time third baseman, Kevin Youkilis would rate next.

Chone Figgins (LAA):  Gets on base, runs the bases well, and had an above average season with the glove – a sign that he’s getting more comfortable over there now that he’s not being used like a super utility player. Seattle will like having him at the front of the line up.  (104.3 Runs Created, 7.5 Runs Saved = 111.86 Total Run Production.)

If you are an Angels fan, you probably want to know more about Brandon Wood.  Wood has been the power hitting infielder in waiting for what seems like a small eternity.  Wood was a first round draft pick back in 2003, and has had seasons at Rancho Cucamonga and Salt Lake City that would suggest that he’s the next Troy Glaus.  Personally, I don’t buy it.  Now, he’s struggled to hit .190 in the majors because he’s spent a lot of time going back and forth between Salt Lake City and Los Angeles.  He’s really only had one month where he got some regular MLB playing time – and that month he hit about .250 with a little power.  And that’s where I think he’ll be.  As a rule of thumb, you can usually look at PCL stats and knock 50 points of the batting average and about 40% of the power off the top.  In three seasons of AAA ball, Wood has hit between .270 and .295 with 25 homer power.  That translates to about 15 homers and a .245 batting average.  I’d like to think, hitting at the bottom of the lineup, he’d be okay.  Wood might do a bit better than that – the way Kendry Morales jumped up and hit like a monster.  A bit better than that is 20 homers and .260 – which is decent enough if he brings a solid glove and improves his strikeout/walk ratio.  Wood turns 25 in March, which is a bit long in the tooth for a prospect.

Alex Rodriguez (NYY):  Missed a month following hip surgery, and then needed some time to get back into playing shape.  After the all-star break, he was dominating at times – including during the playoffs.  Is getting better defensively, but has never been an above average fielder.  Would he still be this good had he not spent years on the juice?  (100.3 Runs Created, -6.50 Runs Saved = 93.76 Total Run Production)

Jhonny Peralta (CLE):  As a hitter, he’s declining but tolerable.  As a fielder, he was surprisingly solid at third base.  I don’t know if he’s a long term solution, but what else do the Indians have?  Besides, I’m ranking him as the fourth most productive third baseman in the AL! Andy Marte is penciled in as a backup here and at first base – and in more than a year’s worth of MLB at bats has struggled to hit .220.  Marte looked good at Columbus in AAA, but so far he has not progressed beyond prospect.  (75.6 Runs Created, 10.6 Runs Saved, 86.19 Total Run Production)

Adrian Beltre (SEA):  Couldn’t stay healthy, and his bat suffered mightily.  He’s now at the age where the chances of him returning to his 2006-2008 form are getting slimmer, but his stats might come back playing in Fenway.  He’s never been a GREAT hitter, but he’s always been above average until last year.  He remains a great fielder, though – and he will help Boston’s pitchers.  (55.5 Runs Created, 28.6 Runs Saved = 84.14 Total Run Production)

Brandon Inge (DET):  His body broke down as the season progressed, but he still played in 161 games.  I’m just not so sure he was helping in, say, September.  A surprising number of homers made up for a lack of batting average.  He remains a pretty good fielder.  (71.9 Runs Created, 9.4 Runs Saved, 81.31 Total Run Production)

Melvin Mora (BAL):  Now in Colorado.  Like Beltre, his bat fell in the tank.  Defensively, he was solid – so he can still help.  He’s not getting any younger, though…  Welcome back, Miguel Tejada, who – if he doesn’t age two more years – should be a step up here.  (51.6 Runs Created, 21.70 Runs Saved, 73.32 Total Run Production)

Adam Kennedy (OAK):  Played all over the infield, but had the most innings here.  He’s really NOT a third baseman and having been signed to play second base for Washington, is returning to his old home…  Kevin Kouzmanoff arrives from San Diego to play for the As, and Eric Chavez could always come back from injuries to play for a month at some point in the season.  Kouz is NOT a step up from what Kennedy did overall – and if we ranked him using the numbers he put up in San Diego, would rank in this exact same spot anyway.

Mike Lowell (BOS):  His hip injuries have become problematic, but he’s more productive than most.  Last year’s fielding numbers were below average and his offensive numbers weren’t great but still above the league norm.  Somebody is going to give him 400 at bats and he’s not going to be a problem.  I still predict that he’ll join the Marlins radio booth in a few years…  (69.7 Runs Created, -4.2 Runs Saved = 65.51 Total Run Production)

Gordon Beckham (CWS):  Actually, not a bad tally for a rookie and if he were staying at third, I’d like his chances to move into the top five in this group next year.  Instead, the White Sox are moving Beckham to second base and giving his job to Mark Teahen – which isn’t a great idea (I’d rather have kept Beckham at third and signed Orlando Hudson), and it might take a while for the new infield to gel.  Beckham’s OBP and SLG numbers were solid.  I like him.  (60.5 Runs Created, 4.2 Runs Saved = 64.67 Total Run Production)

Michael Young (TEX):  Newly found power source gave Young perhaps his best offensive season ever.  However, he looked out of position at third after years as a shortstop and his overall production numbers dropped him to eleventh.  Hopefully he can maintain the offense and improve his range in 2010.  (102.8 Runs Created, -39.0 Runs Saved = 63.83 Total Run Production)

Scott Rolen (TOR):  Had a remarkably productive run for Toronto, hitting .320 with a little power.  He was so good, Toronto sent him to Cincinnati…  Like Lowell, you wonder how many years he has left, but if he can hit like this, he’s got plenty.  Glove is no longer a strong suit.  Edwin Encarnacion may not have this job for long unless he finds some stability and to be honest, this is a step down for Toronto.  (63.2 Runs Created, -5.6 Runs Saved = 57.61 Total Run Production).

Joe Crede (MIN):  The best of what Minnesota threw out there (Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher, Nick Punto), Crede isn’t horrible but he isn’t dependably healthy either.  Minnesota will go in a different direction, but it’s hard to say what that direction will be.  As of this writing, Harris is listed at the top of the depth chart but he is NOT a third baseman.  (38.2 Runs Created, 6.8 Runs Saved = 45.01 Total Run Production)

Mark Teahen (KC):  Alex Gordon will get his old job back, but it’s not like Gordon has been as advertised since arriving with the Royals three years ago.  Teahen struggled mightily in the field for some reason – he’s usually pretty dependable.  Now, he’s a White Sox third baseman, and that may not be a good thing.  We’ll see.  (67.4 Runs Created, -23.9 Runs Saved = 43.53 Total Run Production)

Top AL First Basemen in 2009

Let’s put some of this fun data together and look at the top players by position.  Today, we’ll start with the AL First Basemen.

What I have done is taken the basic runs created data (an older Bill James formula modified to account for the park in which that player played) and my defensive runs saved data and combined them into a Total Run Production number.  The best players will create the most runs offensively and prevent the most runs defensively.

Kendry Morales (LAA) – Now THAT’S an impact season.  You start with the power and average – 34 – 108 – .306.  He didn’t walk a lot, but he added more than 40 doubles, too.  Morales is also a very mobile first baseman – more mobile than Teixeira.  I show him creating about 115 runs of offense and then saving his team about 38 runs defensively.  This isn’t the first time that he’s had impressive defensive stats at first.  In more than 450 innings there in 2006 he was very good and in 121 innings in 2007 he had similar range numbers.  (115.4 Runs Created, 37.8 Runs Saved = 153.20 Total Run Production)

Mark Teixeira (NYY) – It was close, but Morales’ defensive numbers put him over the top.  I’m not suggesting that Teixeira is BAD defensively.  He’s not.  He’s got soft hands and makes many, many impressive plays.  However, in the last four years he’s been all over the map.  Not so good in Texas, decent in a half season in Atlanta.  Then, after a slower start in ATL in 2008, he was very good with the Angels.  He was above average last year with the Yankees.  As a hitter, Tex was worth 20 more runs, but as a fielder, Morales made up for it with about five runs to spare.  I think I’d rather have Tex on my fantasy team, though.  (135.6 Runs Created, 12.7 Runs Saved = 148.32 Total Run Production)

Miguel Cabrera (DET) – An alcohol problem surfaced in 2009 and yet he was still very productive.  Hopefully, a cleaner Cabrera will have a breakout season in 2010.  In 2009, he wasn’t half bad at first base and he remains one of the most productive hitters at any position.  I’d draft him.  (132.7 Runs Created, 0.9 Runs Saved = 133.62 Total Run Production)

Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – A great fielder at two positions, Boston looks to get more time for Youkilis at first base with Adrian Beltre playing the hot corner.  Where the top three guys were all 30 – 100 – .300 types, Youk was 27 – 94 .305 – just a notch below them in power, but just as patient (if not more so) at the plate.  (109.6 Runs Created, 14.9 Runs Saved = 124.45 Total Run Production)

Russell Branyan (SEA) – Finally getting a full season of at bats (well, he was injured at the end of the year), Branyan delivered the goods.  Solid power and patience, but a lower batting average (.251) than the top tier guys.  And, Branyan was surprisingly good at first base, showing well above average range.  Seattle turned a negative to a huge positive in 2009.  That being said, he still didn’t get to 500 plate appearances and he’s 34.  I bet Branyan would like a second shot at his career – but this might have been his best chance and it took forever for someone (Cleveland) to sign him.  People must not think he can repeat what he did last year.  (81.2 Runs Created, 24.4 Runs Saved = 105.66 Total Run Production)

Paul Konerko (CHI) – The really slow start messed with what was really a pretty good season.  Konerko had an average season defensively and a shade more than 90 runs of offense.  The issue, of course, is that he’s running out of prime years, turning 34 in Spring Training…  (92.5 Runs Created, 7.3 Runs Saved = 99.85 Total Run Production)

Billy Butler (KC) – If you are looking for a sleeper for your fantasy team, you could do worse than drafting this guy…  Butler can hit .300 with some power – which will likely get better as he ages.  He’s still young and his defense, while not great, wasn’t miserably bad.  Personally, I’d rather have Butler than Konerko next year.  (103.1 Runs Created, -10.8 Runs Saved = 92.29 Total Run Production.)

Carlos Pena (TB) – Still has world class power (39 homers despite missing a month), but his batting average tanked to .227.  He’s NOT a .300 hitter, and I don’t think he’s really a .227 hitter.  However, he’s coming off a bad wrist injury and is now 32 (well – he will be in May). His defense is still solid, but it’s not what it once was.  Watch how he does in the spring and steal him if he gets off to a decent start.  (91.3 Runs Created, .7 Runs Saved = 92.02 Total Run Production)

Lyle Overbay (TOR) – His defense, normally awesome, slipped in 2009.  His offense, normally tolerable, slipped in 2009.  Overbay isn’t going to hit 20 homers and unless he’s hitting close to .300 and hitting a bunch of doubles and cutting down grounders and line drives to right field, he’s gaining on losing his job to Adam Lind…  He might bounce back some, but he’s not high on my draft list.  (76.1 Runs Created, -1.8 Runs Saved = 74.31 Total Run Production)

Justin Morneau (MIN) – If healthy, Justin Morneau will likely move back up the list in 2010.  However, with stress fractures in his back last year, his batting tanked in the late summer and he couldn’t move well enough in the field.  He generated 90 runs of offense (most of it before the All-Star break), which is okay, but he gave 20 back with his defense – hence the low rating.  (91.4 Runs Created, -20.51 Runs Saved = 70.92 Total Run Production)

Ryan Garko (CLE) – No longer an Indian, Garko was replaced by Andy Marte after being dealt to San Francisco – and Victor Martinez got several innings here, too.  Garko’s net production among two teams was 64.50 (56.5 Runs Created with 8 Runs Saved).  The job may well get split again this year among Marte and Travis Hafner.  Marte, a long time prospect who turned 26 in the offseason, looked like he hadn’t spent much time there and Victor Martinez looked like a catcher trying to play first base.  To be fair, a full season of Garko wouldn’t be horrible – it might be better than having Lyle Overbay these days.  Roster Update!!! The Indians signed Russell Branyan to a one-year deal as spring training started – so if Branyan is healthy, the Indians could have a solid answer for 2010.

Aubrey Huff (BAL) – Now plying his trade for San Francisco, Huff had an off season to say the least.  Between two teams, Huff’s total production was 58.70 runs (63.8 Runs Created, but -5.1 runs saved).  The new first baseman could be Michael Aubrey, a former Indian prospect who has some skills and the same, albeit displaced, name.  He’s going to field a little better than Huff and he MIGHT hit pretty well, too.  Suffering through injuries in the minor leagues, Baltimore hopes this Aubrey is a late bloomer.  God forbid they have to play Garrett Atkins there.

Chris Davis (TEX) – Shared the role with Hank Blalock, none of which is the answer…  At least Davis has some range and a little power but he sure does strikeout a lot.  If you combine Davis and Blalock, the total production is close to the production of Carlos Pena and his backups…  (47.4 Runs Created, 10.1 Runs Saved = 57.44 Total Run Production)

Daric Barton (OAK) – Barton took over for Jason Giambi and wasn’t horrible.  He fielded the position well and he gets on base some – though you wish he had a little more power.  He’s 70% of Mark Grace, but he’s 24 and has a little room left to grow…  The A’s could choose to go with Eric Chavez here if they let Kevin Kouzmanoff play third base all season.  Barton also serves as the emergency catcher, having started his career as a catcher out of high school.

Quick Notes… Having done this, the median starting first baseman in the AL produced about 92 runs for his team and the replacement level would have been about 70 runs of production.  The latter seems a little low in that Minnesota’s final number, if you included the time spent at first base by Michael Cuddyer, would have been closer to 85 or 90 runs.  So, more realistically, your first basemen have to generate at least 90 runs of production lest they need to be replaced.  Morales and Teixeira were, in essence, about six wins better than the average first baseman.

A Long Weekend of Deals – Catching Up on Hot Stove News…

Kevin Kouzmanoff heads north, going from San Diego to Oakland in a four player deal.  San Diego acquires Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham for the veteran third baseman and minor leaguer Eric Sogard.  Kouzmanoff will get playing time and serves as an insurance policy lest Eric Chavez cannot recover from back problems. [SI]

And, with the chances pretty strong that Jerry Hairston will also sign with the Padres, it makes us long for Edgar Gonzalez, because San Diego would have had two pairs of brothers and the son of former Padre Tony Gwynn.  Nepotism?  [FoxSports]

Adam LaRoche chose to sign with Arizona, getting $6 million and a mutual option for 2011.  From the sounds of it, LaRoche chose Arizona and a one year deal over other places (like San Francisco) that had offered two year deals because (a) he’ll likely have better stats, and (b) if he does have a great season, he’ll have better options for a contract in the next offseason.  Once LaRoche signed his deal, the Diamondbacks designated Eric Byrnes for assignment – despite having one more expensive year left on a three-year deal. [MLB]

The Florida Marlins, possibly pressured by MLB and the MLBPA, signed pitcher Josh Johnson to a four-year, $39 million deal with other incentives – a slightly better deal than the one given Zack Greinke.  [MLB]

The White Sox signed reliever Bobby Jenks ($7.5 million) and outfielder Carlos Quentin ($3.2 million) to one-year deals.  [MLB]

The Pirates are filling out the bullpen, inking Brendan Donnelly to an incentive-laden deal, as well as D.J. Carrasco (minor league deal), and are chasing Octavio Dotel.  [MLB]

The Indians signed Mike Redmond to a one-year deal.  Redmond is an excellent veteran to back Lou Marson (and my favorite backup catcher, ever).  [MLB]

From the Hot Stove to the Law:

Legal Analyst Michael McCann says that we shouldn’t expect confessions from Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, or Rafael Palmeiro any time soon.  [SI]

Milton Bradley may be through with the Cubs, but not Chicago – as he is being sued by his Chicago-based landlord for rent and other obligations.  [FanHouse]

Jose Offerman punched an umpire in a Dominican Winter League game.  Offerman, who was managing in Licey, has now been permanently banned from the league.  This is Offerman’s second on-field assault.  [SI]

Happy Birthday! On this Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday, those celebrating birthdays include Curt Flood – whose challenge of the reserve clause (he didn’t want to be traded) was kind of the first significant movement toward free agency – as the Boston Tea Party was to the American Revolution.  Flood was born in 1938.

Others celebrating include Bill McGowen (1896), pitcher Carl Morton (1944), Billy Grabarkewitz (1946), Scott McGregor (1954), Mike Lieberthal (1972), and Wandy Rodriguez (1979).

2009 Season Forecast: San Diego Padres

Done while eating a Turkey Melt at my desk:

San Diego Padres
2008: 63 – 99 Last in NL West
Runs Scored: 637 Lowest in NL
Runs Allowed: 759 7th in NL and most in the division.

This, of course, despite the fact that the park is a cavern, making everyone’s ERA about a half a run better than it would be anywhere else, and making hitters look worse. Padres and their opponents scored nearly 170 runs in road games more than in home games, the biggest discrepancy in the NL.

OFFENSE:

The good ones are better than you think – Adrian Gonzales is awesome, Jody Gerut and Brian Giles were very good. Chase Headley wasn’t bad, Kevin Kouzmanoff is tolerable. Nick Hundley, Tadihito Iguchi, and Khalil Green were atrocious – even after you cut them slack for the park. Few part timers were any good.

DEFENSE:

Average at best. The middle infield was below average (Greene, Iguchi, Gonzales), and except for Giles (who is old and immobile), the outfield was pretty good. Okay team efficiency, didn’t make too many errors. The catching was the second worst in the NL – Josh Bard and Hundley were bad and couldn’t stop the running game.

PITCHING:

Jake Peavy and Heath Bell are great. Chris Young and Trevor Hoffman were average at best, as was Cla Meredith. The rest were below average, including Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Cha Seung Baek, and Josh Banks. The bullpen had holes. They need a serious upgrade.

CHANGES:

Greene to St. Louis, David Eckstein in to play 2B. Jody Gerut moved full-time (since moved), more Chase Headley is good. Kevin Correia added from SF, Josh Geer added from AAA to rotation. Hoffman allowed to go to Brew-Crew, Bell now closer. Rookies all over the bullpen (Luke Gregerson, Edward Mujica, others).

OUTLOOK:

I don’t see how this is better. I guess a full season (never happened) of Chris Young is good. Headley and Gerut full time is better. Luis Rodriguez or Everth Cabrera, the new SS, has GOT to be better than Greene played last year. Okay – maybe 30 runs better for the pitching staff, but the defense isn’t getting better and the offense isn’t really BETTER as much as it’s not going to be too much worse unless Giles loses it and Hundley can’t improve. Correia wasn’t that good in SF, and he doesn’t have the other numbers to help out. I’ll predict 650 scored and 740 allowed. That’s still just 71 wins.

The two nice win streaks look good, but they had a 4 – 19 stretch in between. Figure that things balance out, and the they’ll start hurting when they leave the NL West to play other teams. But, as it stands, the 24 – 23 record they have right now is a mirage.