Category Archives: Joba Chamberlain

Marlins Open 2012 With Excitement, Ali, and a Loss

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The Miami Marlins opened up the new stadium with fireworks, but couldn’t put together any hits off of Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse in a 4 – 1 loss on opening night.  Muhammad Ali delivered the game ball, which was pretty cool and very sad at the same time.  You could hear the cheers for Ali throughout the stadium, but the effects of Parkinson’s disease are painfully obvious – the tremors are very visible and Ali looked so much older (he’s 70) than the man I remember as a kid.

I met Ali when working for Sprint in Kansas City in 1992.  Even then, his voice was softened and he slurred, and there were small tremors in his hands.  I remember two or three things about that visit.  First, his hands were enormous.  When I shook his hand, his hand practically devoured mine.  Second, he still had a great sense of humor – he did this joke where he claimed he could move a briefcase with his mind.  When it didn’t move, he asked us, “Who do you think I am?  I’m a boxer, not a magician.”  Finally, what I really remember was thinking to myself that this was the closest thing to meeting God that I will likely ever experience.  I mean – it was HIM, Ali.  The Greatest.  Of all the people I have met, it was the only time I can remember being totally awed by someone’s presence.

Back to baseball…

If you are an Orioles fan, this can’t be good…  The Orioles lost a charity baseball game to the State College of Florida Manatees – a community college team – 2 – 1 in eight innings.  A couple of years ago, the Manatees beat Pittsburgh, a team that went on to lose nearly 100 games…  [Bradenton.com]

Andy Pettitte threw a scoreless inning against the Mets and hopes to get ready in time to join the Yankees in May.  If he makes it back, he’ll get a one-year, $2.5 million dollar contract.  [SI]

Torii Hunter accidentally set off the alarm in his house, leading to a visit from a couple of gun-wielding police officers.  The officers were merely following protocol and the guns were never pointed directly at Hunter.  However, Hunter’s identification was in an upstairs bedroom and he was tailed as he walked up to get his wallet.  [ESPN]

Vanderbilt pitching recruit and potential first round draft pick Stephen Gant was found dead near his Linden, TN home apparently having committed suicide by gunshot.  An investigation into Gant’s death continues.  [FoxSports]

Aches and Pains

Tampa closer Kyle Farnsworth will go on the DL with soreness in his elbow caused by a muscle strain.  He joins B.J. Upton (back) and Sam Fuld (surgery, right wrist) on the DL.  [ESPN]

Other players who found their way to the DL as the season started include:

Tim Hudson (back)
Ryan Madson (TJ Surgery)
Carl Crawford (wrist)
Grady Sizemore (back)
A.J. Burnett (eye socket)
Ted Lilly (neck)
Stephen Drew (ankle)
Charlie Morton (hip)
Andrew Bailey (thumb)
Jose Ceda (TJ Surgery)
Ryan Kalish (shoulder)
Joba Chamberlain (dislocated ankle)

and a number of players who will get 15 days after being nicked up in spring training.

Transaction Wire:

The details of the deal signed by the Reds and first baseman Joey Votto were released – 12 years and $251.5 million, the third largest contract in value and the longest in terms of years in baseball history.  The deal includes a club option in 2024 (!) when Votto would be 41 years old.  This more than doubles the contract given to Ken Griffey, Jr. – at one time the largest contract signing in Cincinnati history…  [ESPN]

The New York Mets signed Jonathan Niese to a five year extension worth more than $25 million.  Niese won 11 for the Mets in 2011.  [SI]

Washington pitcher John Lannan was optioned to AAA, and wasn’t happy about it.  Lannan was an opening day starter in 2009 and 2010, and has requested a trade.  [ESPN]

The Twins sent pitcher Scott Baker to the DL and optioned starting pitcher Jason Marquis to AA New Britain to get work since both missed time in Spring Training.  [SI]

In a late spring training trade, the New York Yankees sent pitcher George Kontos to San Francisco for catcher Chris Stewart.  Stewart was given the backup job, which meant that Francisco Cervelli was unhappily dispatched to AAA.  Kontos pitched well at AAA last season earning a cup of coffee in September.  The big right hander is a Northwestern Grad…  As for Chris Stewart, he’s a catch and throw guy – not much of a hitter even in the minors.  He must be pretty good – Cervelli has logged a lot of innings the last couple of years so it’s a bit of a surprise to see Cervelli moved to AAA.

This is the time when players are optioned to AAA or recalled to the majors having earned a spot on the roster – it’s a long list.  A couple of things caught my eye, though…

Nick Johnson made the Orioles roster
Felix Pie was released by Cleveland
Bill Hall was released by New York.

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating with cards, cake, or remembrances include:

(1876) Bill Dinneen – pitcher, later an umpire
(1907) Merritt (Sugar) Cain…  Today, he’d get the song Cocaine played when he came to the plate.  Shouldn’t Lorenzo Cain have the nickname “Sugar”?
(1938) Ron Hansen
(1951) Rennie Stennett – one of my favorite Pirates of the 1970s…
(1976) Ross Gload
(1985) Lastings Milledge

2011 Season Forecast: New York Yankees

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Last Five Seasons:
2010:  95 – 67
2009: 103 – 59 (World Series Champs)
2008:  89 – 73
2007:  94 – 68
2006:  97 – 65

Runs Scored: 859 (Tops in the AL)
Runs Allowed: 693 (5th in the AL)

Based on this, the Yankees could have won the division with 98 wins…

2010 Recap:

Picked by many to repeat as AL East and World Series champs, the Yankees just missed by a game of winning the east, and had their starting rotation held up (or had they acquired Cliff Lee) they might have won the series, too.

The Yankees got off to a hot start, taking 15 of 22 in April, and having winning records every month until September, when they went 12 – 15 and were run down from behind by the Rays.  To be honest, they peaked after a long winning streak at 86 – 50, but actually collapsed to the finish line.  Had they missed the playoffs, it might have been given the same treatment as a Mets September, but for some reason, the Yankees were given a pass for going 9 – 17 down the stretch.

If I were them, I’d be nervous.

During the season, in addition to the run of the mill waiver claims and what not, the Yankees acquired Austin Kearns for spare parts from Cleveland, later picked up Kerry Wood at the trade deadline for two more minor leaguers, and gave up two decent prospects (Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes) to the Astros to pick up Lance Berkman.  Wood played pretty well, Kearns was just a backup, and Lance Berkman acted like he wanted to be somewhere else.

Starters:

The Yankees rotation is led by the remarkable C.C. Sabathia, who provided yet another season as a Cy Young candidate.  Philip Hughes took a big step forward by winning 18 decisions in 29 starts, but as a pitcher was just mildly better than the average starter.  Andy Pettitte heads to retirement following a remarkably good 21 starts, winning 11 of 14 decisions.  However, the #2 starter, A.J. Burnett went 10 – 15 with a 5.26 ERA – 25 runs worse than the average starter over 186.2 innings.  And Javier Vazquez was equally poor, despite the 10 – 10 record, with his 5.32 ERA.  Vazquez suffered as a flyball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, giving up a homer every fifth inning he pitched.  Dustin Moseley and Ivan Nova were tolerable when given chances to start – in fact Nova may earn a rotation spot in 2011.

However, the pitching is thin for 2011 in general.  The Yankees twice failed to get Cliff Lee to town (maybe the fans in Yankee Stadium should have been nicer to Lee’s wife).  Vazquez is now a Florida Marlin, Andy Pettitte has retired to Texas, and even Kerry Wood returned home (he’s pitching for the Cubs).  Sabathia returns, as does Burnett (he HAS to be better than last year), and Hughes will get 32 starts to see if he’s still got the magic.  That leaves Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, and former rotation stalwarts Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia – who are years removed from their better days.  I’m not a huge Garcia fan anymore, but he actually was tolerable as a fifth starter for the White Sox last year.  On the other hand, he won 12 games in his 28 starts despite a 4.64 ERA, served up a lot of homers, and only struck out 89 in 157 innings.  Vazquez came with much better credentials and stunk up the joint.  Ivan Nova or Sergio Mitre will have to step forward – and Mitre has enough innings under his belt to suggest he’s not the answer.  So that means Nova is likely to get a shot at being the #5 guy.

Bullpen:

Mariano Rivera continues to amaze as nears AARP status – a 1.80 ERA, 33 saves, and just 55 base runners in 60 innings.  Joba Chamberlain didn’t completely own the 7th or 8th inning, but there are still things to like, including a great K/9 rate and improved control.  Boone Logan and Damaso Marte served as solid one-out lefties, and David Robertson was decent in 61.1 innings.  Kerry Wood was impressive in his two months.

Looking ahead, Rivera returns for another go, but Rafael Soriano was imported from Tampa to provide an 8th inning ace and potential replacement closer.  The rest of the pen contains the familiar faces of Robertson, Logan, and Chamberlain, as well as newly added Pedro Feliciano.  Hopefully, these guys are ready for a step up in workload.

Catching:

Jorge Posada and Francisco Cervelli provided decent enough catching, even if teams ran rampant on Posada when he caught.  Posada can still hit some, so he will be moved to the DH role, which means that Cervelli will cede a few innings to Russell Martin.  Cervelli is a decent backup – no power, some defense, a fair batting average.  Four years ago, Martin was a solid defensive catcher and run producer, that is until Joe Torre ran him into the ground.

Infield:

The Yankees have an interesting mix of current and aging superstars. At third, you have the declining Alex Rodriguez, who is getting more comfortable at third base as his batting statistics fall off from his MVP level (and steroid supported) play.  At short is the captain, Derek Jeter.  When he hits .320, Jeter is the most productive shortstop in the AL despite his defensive flaws (range, really, is his only flaw and it’s really getting problematic – so stop giving him the gold glove when he hasn’t ever deserved one).  Last year, he hit .270 and the team let him know, through an ugly contract negotiation, that they noticed his decline was both offensive and defensive.  At second, you have the remarkably talented Robinson Cano, who is as good a fielder as can be found in the AL and light years ahead of any second sacker when batting, too.  At first, you have Mark Teixeira, who struggled to get out April, but still managed 33 homers, 108 RBI, and got on base at a .368 clip.  That’s a solid off season.  Backing them up is Ramiro Pena, who has little power but some defensive skills – much like Eduardo Nunez, who is the sixth infielder.

I’d like to think that Jeter can bounce back for one more .300 season.  If he does, that bodes well for his chances at 3500 hits and the Yankees continuing to make playoff runs.  Realistically, that’s not going to happen.  Same with Alex Rodriguez, who is barely making 30 homers per year, misses a month of games each year now, and also hit .270 instead of .310.  Playing in Yankee Stadium is also masking some of their decline; if Jeter had hit .255 with 7 homers, would anyone give him a chance of a comeback?  Cano should be able to duplicate his 2010 season, but last year was a significant step forward to superstardom.  And Teixeira will not have another April like last year.  The issue is that all four are generally durable (even A-Rod, with his hip, has never missed 60 games in a season) and now, with all but Cano at least two years into their 30s, the chances of someone missing a significant amount of time is going up.  I can’t help but think that this is the year – and neither Pena nor Nunez can hit enough to make up for that kind of loss.

Outfield:

The trio of Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Swisher return after all three provided solid production in 2010.  Of the three, Gardner has the greatest chance to produce more in 2011.  He could be moved up in the lineup (he should be the leadoff hitter), which would give him more opportunities.  Until then, he’s the best centerfielder playing left field on the team, and he’s the best #9 hitter in baseball.  Granderson found his power stroke near the end of the year, but he’s only marginally better than average because he doesn’t quite hit .250 anymore.  Swisher is coming off a career year in batting and slugging and remains a surprisingly good defensive outfielder.  Austin Kearns and Randy Winn are gone (thankfully), but they have imported aging slugger Andruw Jones to help out here and be the right handed counterpart at DH.  Greg Golson may be the best defensive option as the alliterative fourth outfielder; Golson or Colin Curtis.

DH:

Last year, Marcus Thames was the surprise hit of the team, launching 12 homers in 212 at bats, batting .288, and generating more runs per 27 outs than even Teixeira.  In 2011, look for Jorge Posada, Andruw Jones, and one or more of the others (Rodriguez, Swisher, Granderson, or even Jeter to pick up a few at bats here.

Down On the Farm:

It all starts with Jesus Montero, who is an expanded set of defensive skills away from being the next great Yankee catcher.  In AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre, Montero hit for more power, was more selective, and – at 20 – is just about ready.  Eduardo Nunez got his first cup of coffee after tying Montero for the team lead in batting, stole 23 bases in 28 attempts, and played a steady shortstop.  At 24, he could step in and help out.  The top pitcher was Ivan Nova, who went 12 – 3 with a 2.86 ERA, showed good control, and was reasonably solid in his Yankee debut.  David Phelps moved up through two levels, going 6 – 0 in 14 starts at AA Trenton, then 4 – 2 in 11 starts at AAA – with great command and a sub 3.00 ERA.

Trenton featured first baseman Brandon Laird, a 23 year old who hit 23 – 90 – .291.  Hector Noesi went 8 – 4 with a 1.09 WHIP and an 86/18 K/BB rate.  Another pitcher making a step up was Adam Warren, who whipped through three levels since his 2009 draft (4th round), and has been impressive with his command and control at all three levels.

Corbin Joseph was a 4th round pick out of Franklin, TN in 2008 and hit .302 in A+ Tampa.  He’s a slight second baseman who seems to be developing a little power as he ages.  Another young prospect is Jose Pirela, a Venezuelan burner who plays shortstop and hit 13 triples for Tampa.  He may be fighting Joseph for a shot at the second base job in three years.  Among the top arms were Pat Venditte (4 – 1, 1.73, 85/14 in 72.2 innings), Dellen Betances – a Brooklyn native who clobbered Tampa opponents (8 – 1, 1.77, 88/19 in 81 innings), and Mexican teen sensation Manny Banuelos, who had 79Ks in 59.2 innings and seems to be ready for a full trip in AA Trenton.

Forecasting 2011:

It’s hard to pick against the Yankees because (a) the outfielders are all in their prime, as is Teixeira, and (b) the veterans they have are all still very productive.

On the other hand, this might be the year things fall off.  The Yankees won’t be getting MORE production in center or right fields.  They won’t be getting MORE production from second base, shortstop, or third base.  They won’t be getting MORE production behind the plate.  The only spots where improvement might be seen is left field – but that would be at the expense of another position.  I think the offense will still be good – but not 859 runs of good.  More like 780 runs – a top five offense rather than a #1 offense.

Then you have the defense, which could slip a little at four or five positions.  I’d swap Granderson and Gardner, which would help, but you never know if the Yankees would do that since Granderson is only 30.  You’d ALMOST want to switch A-ROD and Jeter – but I’m not certain that after the hip surgeries A-ROD can cover short anymore.  In fact, nobody in New York can cover short – which makes a lot of the pitchers look worse than they have to.  At least Jeter is still solid at turning two.

That brings us to the pitchers.  If Sabathia, who came to spring training in WAY better shape than he had been, were to miss any chunk of time, this team could fall off the map.  Hughes is good, but not great, Burnett isn’t dependable and is one slump away from being sent to the Pirates or something.  Your fourth and fifth starters are rookies or retreads.  I think the Yankees will allow a few more runs than in 2010 – maybe 40 more.  That puts the team around 780 runs scored and just 725 allowed, which converts to 87 wins.  And wait until the Steinbrenner boys see THAT number…

2010 Season Forecast: New York Yankees

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Last Five Seasons:

2009: 103 – 59 (1st AL East, World Champions)
2008:  89 – 73
2007:  94 – 68
2006:  97 – 65
2005:  95 – 67

Runs Scored: 915 (1st, MLB)
Runs Allowed: 753, (5th, AL)

The Yankees were good – don’t get me wrong.  Using the ratio of  runs scored to runs allowed, they would be expected to win 97 games, which is still three more than anyone else – but a little lucky.

Just a little.

If I can digress a little bit, a lot was made about the large number of home runs hit in the new Yankee Stadium.  Yankee batters hit 28 more homers at home than on the road.  The Yankee pitching staff allowed 21 more homers at home than in road games.  The net gain on this is about 70 runs.  (Pete Palmer calculates the value of a homer at 1.44 runs – so that’s how I come to that conclusion.)

Despite this split, the offense as a whole at Yankee Stadium was actually lower than on the road (819 runs in Yankee Stadium, while 839 runs on the road) – and it was their own offense that was probably more responsible for that shortfall.  what this means, of course, is that if you would expect to add 70 runs on the scoreboard but wind up 20 runs short, the REST of the hits must have been removed.

That means that there were a few other factors that had a greater affect on offense – the size of the foul territory, the shape of the outfield walls, the length of the infield grass, whatever – than whatever pushed homers over the right centerfield wall.  For example, the Yankees hit only five triples at home, but 16 on the road – and they hit 25 fewer doubles at home, too.  This suggests that by having a bit shorter wall in the alleys, some balls leave, but the rest are caught and outfielders could shade in and cut off sinking liners and bloop hits.  Singles weren’t going through the infield – which suggests that the grass must have been REALLY thick, especially on that left side where veterans with less range inhabit the infield…

You wouldn’t want to make a TON of conclusions about it, but we’re talking about making up for a lot of missing hits in 2009.  We’ll see how this holds up next year.

Let’s get back to the team review.

Season Recap:

The season started with the admission in spring training that Alex Rodriguez, recovering from off-season hip surgery, had also spent some time in the steroid cocktail lounge.  A-Rod would miss the first month of the season, and take a little while to get back into playing shape.  Still, the Yankees had made a number of significant moves – signing C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher – to rededicate themselves to the task of winning a championship in the new Yankee Stadium.

For a month or so, the Yankees stumbled out of the gate, winning and losing a couple, until a five game losing streak at home against Anaheim, Boston,and Tampa put them two games under .500.  While some wondered if it was because A-Rod was gone, the truth was that the pitchers had a 5.79 ERA in April (See Chien-Ming Wang or Sergio Mitre) and that just couldn’t be overcome by any decent offense.  After losing to Roy Halliday in Toronto on May 12th, Joe Girardi was already feeling the heat of the New York scribes who insisted that he might get fired before the All-Star break if things didn’t get turned around.

What followed the return of A-Rod to the lineup was the entire team feeling complete – and an eight game winning streak put the team on the way.  Sure – the Yankees had a couple of rough stretches, they lost three in a row twice, and were just six games over .500 on June 23.  A-Rod wasn’t yet hitting the way we were used to him hitting.  The middle relief was staggering a little.  Joba Chamberlain was hearing calls he might head back to the bullpen.  Again, however, the noise was just that.

On June 24, the Yankees got things figured out.  Bam!  Seven game winning streak.  Right after the all-star break – Bam! – eight game winning streak.  If the Yankees lost three in a row, look out.  Getting tossed by the White Sox, the Yankees responded with seven wins and twelve wins in thirteen games.  I counted SIX winning streaks of seven games or longer.  And after June, where they batted .253 with a .354 OBP, the team’s batting average was higher every month until the season ended.

The Yankees fought off Anaheim and Minnesota, then blew over a very good Philadelphia team to win the World Series.

Pitching:

The Yankees had a dominant starter in C.C. Sabathia, and then three decent guys in A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Joba Chamberlain.  The fifth slot, however, wasn’t very good – and was a problem until the Yankees finally turned it over to either Philip Hughes or summer acquisition Chad Gaudin.

Sabathia was amazing – 230 innings of typical good work, saving his team about 26 runs over his time on the mound.  A.J. Burnett won 13 and saved his team 10 runs in 207 innings.  Andy Pettitte, who has done this forever, isn’t a great pitcher anymore – he’s league average – but with this offense, that’s good enough for 14 wins.  If the Yankees could just leave Joba Chamberlain alone, he’d probably be okay.  He was solid until the latter part of the season where he fell off and was about as far below average as Burnett was above it – 11 runs.

The fifth spot was crazy…  Chien-Ming Wang went 1 – 6 with a 9.64 ERA, and will get to figure things out in Washington.  For three years, he was a fine pitcher, but 2009 was ROUGH.  The Yankees tried Sergio Mitre – nine starts and a 6.79 ERA.  After that, the Yankees moved long reliever Philip Hughes in and he was pretty good:  96Ks in 86 innings, good control, and a solid ERA.  I think he has as good a chance of anyone to be groomed for the closer role in a year or two.  Chad Gaudin got six starts and was good enough.

The bullpen starts with the greatest closer of the last 20 years, the incomparable Mariano Rivera, who saved his team 21 runs in his 66.1 innings.  With a 1.76 ERA, you’d never know he was pushing 40.  Hughes was a good compliment, but the rest of the bullpen was up and down.  Alfredo Aceves was tolerable – good control and won ten games in middle relief because the offense could come back from any number of deficits.  David Robertson struck out 63 in 43.2 innings and saved his team a few runs here and there.  Phil Coke didn’t allow too many hits – but the ones he allowed seemed to leave the yard (ten homers in 60 innings).

For 2010, the Yankees added Braves starter (and former Yankee) Javier Vasquez.  You always worry about bringing a flyball guy to new Yankee Stadium, so while I love that the Yankees added a durable innings eater, I don’t think he’s going to be the ACE that he looked like in Atlanta.  I think he’ll look like A.J. Burnett at best – with better control.  ERA around 4.00 – and fans complaining it’s not closer to 3.00.

Additionally, the Yankees probably don’t NEED a regular fifth starter.  They are the one team that could throw Sabathia, Burnett, and Vasquez all the time, Pettitte most of the time, and rotate Chamberlain or Gaudin in there to give people an extra day of rest from time to time.  Seriously – Sabathia could make 40 starts (if not abused in his starts) and MIGHT win 25 or 28 games.

The rotation is going to be about as good as last year – the benefits of Vasquez offsetting whatever loss in productivity comes from Pettitte as he wraps up his career.  The bullpen isn’t going to be better than last year – but it might get used more.  Looking at this, I see a possible five run drop off defensively, but not not more than ten runs off from 2009.

Catching:

A lot is made about how easy it is to run on Jorge Posada. That really wasn’t a problem last year.  Throw in the fact that his teams win, his pitchers are better than league average (two things he probably doesn’t deserve a LOT of credit for, but they are good), and the fact that he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes – that’s pretty good.  His backups, Francisco Cervelli and Jose Molina, do a pretty good job, though Molina won’t be here in 2010.  What will make you nervous is Posada’s age, which might affect his offense this year.

Infield:

Mark Teixeira was all that you would want – impressive offensively, stable defensively.  He’s probably the best first baseman in the AL right now, though Kendry Morales is pretty special, too.

Robinson Cano is in the discussion for best second baseman in baseball.  He has a great glove and might win a batting title – all while hitting 20 – 25 homers.

Derek Jeter remains the most productive shortstop in the AL because he can still hit, gets on base a lot, has enough power, and is so good a hitter that it overrides the fact that he’s a miserable glove – that horrible decision to give him a Gold Glove last year not withstanding.

Alex Rodriguez still towers over most third basemen, finishing 30 – 100 again as he has every year since about 1980…  His defense at the position has improved every year, but he’s still not really all that good.

What scares you is the lack of depth here.  Ramiro Pena is a good fielder and hits a little.  Jerry Hairston is gone and nobody else looks like a major leaguer.  Would you trust Juan Miranda with a job?

I’d love to tell you that this group is going to sustain its production in 2010, but I can’t help but think that age is going to creep up on Jeter or AROD, and if one or the other misses a significant amount of time, it would be problematic (although possibly a benefit defensively).  I look for this group to decline by 30 runs offensively in 2010, and for the defense to slip by five or ten runs.

Outfield:

Last year, the Yankees had a productive Johnny Damon, a tolerable but not impressive Melky Cabrera, and the fun Nick Swisher from left to right.  Only Swisher was mildly above average defensively, but all three were quality contributors with the bat.

Cabrera was moved to Atlanta in the Javier Vasquez trade, which means that Brett Gardner will be the full time centerfielder.  I like this – Gardner is better defensively and despite the lack of power is probaby going to produce more runs because he gets on base.  I like him in the #2 spot behind Jeter.

Losing Damon will be tough, but the Yankees acquired outfielder Curtis Granderson for prospect Austin Jackson to play left.  After running productivity numbers for the two, it’s literally a wash – with the Yankees getting younger.  Granderson has actually slipped two straight years after looking like one of the greats in 2007.  I like him as a left fielder, though – and the pitchers will, too.

Swisher returns to right field, will back up Teixeira from time to time.  The fourth outfielder will be Randy Winn, who is not much offensively anymore but remains a good outfielder.  If he has to play a lot, that would be a problem, though.

The net change of this group, however, I think will be positive.  I like them to score about 10 runs more than last year, and save 10 runs defensively.

Bench:

Last year’s DH was Hideki Matsui, who gets to ply his trade as an Angel in 2010.  In his place will be Nick Johnson, who has a fantastic OBP, sneaks a little power in there, and is a threat to get injured.

After that, I don’t see much of a bench.  Just Pena in the infield, and just Winn in the outfield.

Prospects:

AAA Scranton manager Butch Wynagar’s best pitching prospect is probably reliever Mark Melancon, who got a shot with the big club in 2009.  With Scranton, Melancon was 4 – 0 wiht a 2.89 ERA, fanning 54 and walking 11 in 53 innings.  Nobody else impresses me…  The best hitter was Austin Jackson, a speed demon who was traded to Detroit for Granderson.  Jackson hit .300 with nine triples and 24 steals.  Kevin Russo is an infielder with some skills, hitting .326 but without much power and with Cano and Jeter around isn’t going to get a shot without someone going down with an injury.  He’s probably as good as Ramiro Pena, but with better on base skills.  If you haven’t heard of Russo, it’s because he was a 20th round pick in 2006 and has surprised a lot of people working his way up through the ranks.  I think the kid can play, though.

The Trenton Thunder (AA) features the Yankee’s best prospect, catcher Jesus Montero, who hit .317 in AA after being moved up from Tampa (where, in a tough park, he hit .356).  He looks like the new Jorge Posada and will get Posada’s job in 2012 or so.  He’s just 20.  Eduardo Nunez has some hitting skills, but little patience.  He hit .322 in Trenton with nine homers.  It was the first time that the undrafted Dominican shorstop looked like a hitter.

If you are looking for pitching prospects, though, Trenton might have a few.  Michael Dunn fanned 76 in 53.1 innings, earning a trip to Scranton and eventually New York.  Starter Zach McAllister had a 2.23 ERA with good control in 22 starts.  Josh Schmidt has taken a while to get going but had a 1.61 ERA for Trenton last year – he has great K/9 stats and seems very hard to hit.  He’s just getting a bit old for a prospect.

At Tampa, David Phelps – a Notre Dame arm – looks to be making nice progress, and starter Lance Pendleton or D.J. Mitchell might get a chance to move up to Trenton after solid enough seasons in A+ ball.  Each could stand to work on their control, though.  And Austin Romine is a kid with a little power and speed that might work his way up the Yankee ladder in time, but as a catcher might be blocked by Montero.  2008 third round pick David Adams hit .281 with some power and patience – I like his chances to get to the Yankees (or get traded) by 2013.

Forecast:

Barring catastrophic injuries, the Yankees will be good in 2010.  They won’t win 110 games, I don’t think.  Healthy, the Yankees win 93 games and make the playoffs again.  Part of me thinks that it will be more likely 95 wins, but if the system says 93, I’ll go with that.

Wagner Retiring? That’s What He Told the NY Post…

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I’ve always been a Billy Wagner fan.  He threw HARD – and gave great effort to do so.  Few left handed closers could match his career.  And now, according to the NY Post, that career might be over.  According to sources, he wants to close games near his home in Virginia, and Boston declined his option so that Wagner could pursue his own deal.  (Washington needs help, but it might be a few years before the Nationals are competitive, and Baltimore has a couple of options but none as good as Wagner if he’s healthy.).  Even after Tommy John surgery, Wagner had some success in 17 outings…  Sources say that Wagner is going to put his family first in making a decision about playing again.  [MLB]

Playoff Notes…

Joba Chamberlain will stay in the pen…  Manager Joe Girardi will stay with a three-man rotation for the foreseeable future.  C.C. Sabathia gets the opener (against Angel John Lackey), while A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte will get the other starts.  [SI]

Managerial Carousel…

Jose Cruz will no longer coach first base for the Astros.  However, he will get another position in the organization.  In fact, a lot of coaches are pursuing other options – though Sean Berry, the hitting coach keeps his gig.  Doesn’t the new manager (whomever it will be) get a say in this?  [MLB]

GM Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy will be retained by San Francisco for 2010.  Now, if Sabean can find some offense to match the pitching staff, they could be playing next October, too.  [ESPN]

In fact, the entire Bay Area baseball coaching world can rest assured that a job remains next year.  Oakland announced that they will be retaining the manager and coaching staff.

Meanwhile, the Indians are saying WHO they are talking to (except in mentioning that Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell was contacted), but they are making like Houston and talking to a lot of people about replacing Eric Wedge as manager.  [ESPN]

Hot Stove League… Tim Hudson wants a “wow'” offer, or he might decline his 2010 option (worth $12 million) and become a free agent.  The Braves have a lot of pitching right now – if it were me, I might let him test the market.  [FoxSports]

But I wanted an autograph… Steiner Sports is suing Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina for not living up to obligations linked to marketing ventures.  Molina was supposed to signing autographs and attending events and what not, received an advance, but has refused to do any work.  [ESPN]

Hurry Back! Seattle catcher Rob Johnson will have operations on both hips and his left wrist – but plans on being ready for spring training…  And, Nationals reliever Mike MacDougal also had arthroscopic hip surgery, but should be ready for March.  [ESPN]

Happy Birthday! Yankee Manager Joe Girardi turns 45 today…  I know what he wants for a present.  Others on the birthday list include: Ivy Olson (1885), Oscar Charleston (1896), Harry (The Cat) Brecheen (1914), Tommy Harper (1940), Art Shamsky (1941), Al Oliver (1946), Ed Figueroa (1948), Willie Mays Aikens (1954), Ryan Church (1978), Boof Bonser (1981), and Carlos Marmol (1982).

What do I have to do to get this kind of marketing from MLB? Look for a new book about the 1912 World Series by Michael Vaccaro…

The Season is Over – But it’s Not… Twins and Tigers on Tuesday for Title

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Justin Verlander did what he had to do – he beat the White Sox on the last game of the season to keep the Tigers from fading into history.  Meanwhile, the Twins pounded the Kansas City Royals to keep pace, setting up a Tuesday night game in the Metrodome for the AL Central Division crown.  It’ll be Rick Porcello for Detroit, and Scott Baker for Minnesota, who has been in a game 163 before.  Last year, the Twins hosted a playoff play-in but lost to John Danks and the White Sox. [MLB]

The weekend had a few interesting tidbits.  The Minnesota Twins had a little in-fighting when pitcher Jose Mijares plunked a Tiger in Thursday’s game, and the Tigers retalliated by hitting Delmon Young.  Young was angry – at Mijares.  However, a quality scolding from Ron Gardenhire brought the two back into thinking about the goal – which was taking on Kansas City.  [FoxSports]

Let’s discuss some playoff news (which starts Wednesday)

Boston will get Alex Gonzalez, whose hand was injured when hit by a Kerry Wood pitch on Friday night.  X-Rays were negative.  [ESPN]

And, Boston awaits news on Rocco Baldelli.  The outfielder has a left hip-flexor injury, but appears to be day-to-day for now.

Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa strained his left groin in his last start of the season, but hopes to pitch in the playoffs.  [MLB]

A couple of days ago, I told you about the late season finish of Joba Chamberlain.  This weekend, the Yankees’ brass decided to keep Chamberlain and keep him as a bullpen option.  [ESPN]

The Cards plan on using Kyle Lohse and John Smoltz out of the bullpen for the  playoffs, while Tim Wakefield will not be on the ALDS roster.

What’s up with the bruise on Tiger first baseman Miguel Cabrera’s face?  Even the Detroit Free Press has no idea – and listed to a lot of “no comment” responses.

Bronson Arroyo pitched great down the stretch and therefore has decided to put off carpal tunnel surgery.  The problem seemed to have gone away when Arroyo gave up playing the guitar…  [MLB]

Comings and Goings in Management… Orioles Manager Dave Trembley gets another season at the helm, despite a long September losing streak (13 games), for doing a good job with the young talent.  [SI]

Brewers manager Ken Macha gets another year (and an option), but will have to make due with a new pitching and bullpen coach.  [MLB]

Padres GM Josh Towers is done, possibly so that new Padres ownership can have “their own guy”.  Towers did a pretty good job with limited options over the last few years.  [SI]

Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi was canned after a handful of moderately successful, but frankly disappointing seasons.  And, with his departure, can Cito Gaston be far behind?  Players don’t like Gaston’s lack of communication issues.  [ESPN]

Afterthoughts… Remember Shawn Chacon?  The former MLB pitcher was arrested for failing to pay $150,000 in gambling markers to Caesar’s Palace.  [MLB]

Phillies Clinch; Braves and Twins Likely Done – and what to do with Joba Chamberlain?

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With a pounding of the Astros, the Philadelphia Phillies clinched a third straight NL East title.  And, while the champaign was freely flowing, one player won’t get to participate in the post season, and that’s Jamie Moyer, who needs surgery to repair tendon tears in his abdomen and left groin.  [ESPN/SI]

Detroit got the magic number down to two with a 7 – 2 win over the Twins and Carl Pavano.  The Twins needed to take three of four to have a legitimate shot – and now the Tigers can win tonight and end the race without any additional help.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves were handled by Ricky Nolasco and the Florida Marlins, 5 – 4, pretty much ending Atlanta’s shot at a post season bid.  Nolasco fanned nine in a row at one point, finishing with a league high 16 strikeouts.  The Rockies keep winning – and with the Dodgers unable to win a game in San Diego, the Rockies still have a shot at catching the Dodgers for the NL West crown.

Speaking of the Marlins, the Miami Herald discussed a number of potential roster changes for Florida based on the usual need to dump salary (which makes it hard to be a Marlins fan).  Among those who could be tossed or traded:  Jeremy Hermida, Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, Nick Johnson, and Brendan Donnelly.  Hermida, a former first round draft pick, has been sidelined with a strained oblique and rarely plays anymore – plus he’s never lived up to the hype.  (Heck, his first ever plate appearance, he hit a grand slam, so there was no room to go up…)

It’s Over! Cleveland Manager Eric Wedge was fired effective at the end of the season.  When a season is disappointing, and the best players are traded to other contenders at the trading deadline, and THEN you lose 20 of 25 – your fate is pretty obvious.  [SI]

Is it over? Anybody see how poorly John Smoltz pitched (again) last night?  And he blamed it on the baseballs, saying he could never get a grip or feel comfortable throwing.

Is it over? I know that Ken Griffey’s not saying “retirement”, but hitting .218 isn’t what he probably had in mind for 2009.

Is it over, too? Joba Chamberlain’s poor August and September may end his days as a starter for the Yankees (I was touting him as a starter a few months ago, but he’s be lousy lately), and may keep him from the post season roster altogether.  I don’t know about you, but I’m not sure this is all Joba’s fault.  He was ROLLING in July – and when he has a couple of tough outings in early August, the next thing you know, the Yankees management starts limiting his pitch count, which couldn’t have been good for his head.  Now, he’s probably pressing – trying to get back his rotation slot as the Yankees have decided to go back to letting him throw 100 pitch outings again.  I compared Pitch FX data (not too closely, but looked at stuff) and it doesn’t look like he’s lost velocity – but he has lost the strike zone.  He was throwing strikes 61.5% of the time in July, but less than 59.5% of the time in September.  The Yankee’s lack of commitment to Chamberlain in a given role is, to me, as problematic as it gets.

Hurry Back! Freddy Sanchez had successful surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, but should be back for spring training.

Welcome Back! Chris Dickerson (Reds) and Russell Branyan (Mariners) came off the DL.

Lidge Blows Eleventh Save (!) – and Other News…

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When the rain came, the Marlins trailed the Phillies 6 – 4.   Then, the Marlins brought the rain, with Jorge Cantu and Brett Carroll knocking in runs to beat Brad Lidge and the Phillies.  For Lidge, he’s blown 11 saves (and the Cubs complain about Kevin Gregg and his seven blown saves, though most of them came in about a two week period in August).  Ryan Madson was given a shot – and failed.  Brett Myers may not be healthy enough.  So, unless there’s a new call for Tyler Walker to be a closer, the Phillies have no choice but to let their starters go nine every night.  Can Jamie Moyer close?  [ESPN]

The Phillies got a small dose of good news…  Catcher Carlos Ruiz has just a sprain, and will return to the lineup soon.  Ruiz made a tag of Matt Diaz at the plate Friday night against the Braves and tweaked his wrist on the play.  [ESPN]

Atlanta manager Bobby Cox says 2010 will be his last year on the bench – nearly 2500 wins after starting his managerial career with the Braves back when Dale Murphy was still occasionally catching (1978).  [FoxSports]

ESPN reports that Milton Bradley will not challenge his suspension and awaits news of his Cubs career.   Bradley even apologized for the situation…   [ESPN/FoxSports]

Let’s Talk Yankees…

Jorge Posada fouled a ball off his toes, but x-rays revealed no breaks.  He’s probably out until the weekend.  Meanwhile, GM Brian Cashman said that the struggling Joba Chamberlain has to step up, else not make the Yankees playoff roster.  Finally, FanNation is allowing commentary on a New York Daily News comment that manager Joe Girardi has to win the World Series to keep his job for 2010.  [ESPN/SI/FanNation]

Moving on…

The Miami Herald is reporting that the Marlins might make a four-year, $50 million offer to pitcher Josh Johnson.  If that happens, Dan Uggla will complain any time Josh has to leave a start before the sixth inning and question his toughness.  [FanNation]

Chicago White Sox GM Ken Williams – Disappointed in 2009, Optimistic for 2010.  You decide if he’s a glass half full or empty type of guy.  [ESPN/MLB]

FanNation reports that Arizona pitcher Brandon Webb, who has spent most of 2009 on the DL, wants his full option and no pay cut to come back to the Diamondbacks for 2010.  I know a lot of teams that would invest in Webb if he were healthy next year…  [FanNation]

Nolan Reimold had successful surgery to repair a frayed Achilles tendon.  Here’s to a complete recovery for the Orioles rookie slugger.  [FoxSports]

Hurry Back! The Royals placed pitcher Bruce Chen on the DL with a strained oblique.  (Of course, he’ll be back in 2010, and not in 2009.)

Welcome Back! With Chen leaving, the Royals activated pitcher Juan Cruz, and the Indians brought back pitcher Joe Smith from the DL.

Afterthoughts… Tough day for umpire Marty Foster, who took three foul balls – one off the face mask – in last night’s Giants-D’Backs game…

Pedro, Smoltz Heading in Different Directions; Brewers Commence Another Late Season Overhaul

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John Smoltz refused a minor league assignment, which leaves the Red Sox with two alternatives – trade the aging legend or release him.  All too rarely does an athlete leave on his own terms – sadly, it’s usually forced upon him/her through injury or failed performance.  Smoltz may get one  more shot, but that’s probably it.  Ken Rosenthal suspects it may be the Dodgers…  [FoxSports]

Pedro Martinez won his start, lasting five innings but getting tons of run support as the Phillies bombarded the Cubs last night.  Glad to see that I’m not the only one warning people to watch this with some level of caution.   I mean, three runs in five innings isn’t really stopper material – and Jamie Moyer would have likely won that start and lasted another innning or two…  [SI]

Milwaukee is trying to overhaul the roster in hopes of a late pennant run.  They put in a waiver claim on Diamondbacks starter Doug Davis, and also shook up things at home by firing pitching coach Bill Castro in favor of former starter Chris Bosio.  Then, the struggling J.J. Hardy was dispatched to AAA Nashville while Bill Hall was designated for assignment – which means he’ll be released and the Brewers will be eating about $11 million in Hall’s contract.  Coming up from AAA Nashville are two prospects, SS Alcides Escobar and OF Jason Bourgeois.  [SI/ESPN]

Alcides Escobar is a burner, a guy who makes contact, gets hits, steals bases and can cover ground in the field.  He’s not a leadoff guy – doesn’t really work the count and doesn’t have much power.  However, he can help – and J.J. Hardy isn’t helping by hitting .229 with 11 homers…  Baseball America ranked Escobar as Milwaukee’s top prospect, and has worked his way up the prospect ladder.  Jason Bourgeois isn’t going to take the world by fire – unless you need steals on your fantasy roster.  Originally an infielder in the Texas chain, he’s worked his way all over the minors for the Rangers, Braves, White Sox, and Seattle.  As best as I can tell, he’s a 27-year-old Willy Taveras – contact, speed, okay batting average and little else.  If he hits .270 and plays okay defense, he’ll be better than Hall, but he isn’t going to make anyone forget Mike Felder…  Unfortunately, he’s not a long term answer.

Boston’s Kevin Youkilis and Detroit’s Rick Porcello were suspended for five games following the bean/brawl.  Having watched it eight to ten times, Porcello doesn’t have a reason to be suspended and is challenging the decision.  Youkilis took the day off and Mike Lowell hit another homer in his place…  [ESPN]

Joba Chamberlain’s innings will be even more closely monitored as he shifts to a seven day rotation.  [ESPN]

Erik Bedard will have exploratory surgery to determine the source of the pain in his shoulder, and address the fraying already there.  What is open to debate is whether or not he’ll be back with the Mariners next year.  Seattle has an option, or could let Bedard become a free agent.  [ESPN]

Another pitcher going under the knife is Washington prospect Jordan Zimmermann, who gets Tommy John surgery and will likely not pitch until 2011.  [ESPN]

It doesn’t get better for the Mets.  Carlos Delgado’s hip recovery was stalled by a strained oblique muscle.  [FoxSports]

Kaz Matsui is one hit away from having 2000 combined hits in Japan and MLB – which would put him in a rather exclusive club among Japanese ballplayers.  He would join the Meikyukai, an elite group of players with 200 hits, 250 saves, or 200 wins – whether in Japan, the US, or both.  Others you may have heard of?  Ichiro Szuki, Hideki Matsui, and Hideo Nomo…  [MLB]

A couple of players got hit yesterday and had to leave games…  Yankee captain Derek Jeter was hit in the right instep by a pitch last night and couldn’t run the bases well, so was pulled in the third inning.  And, Reds starter Homer Bailey was struck by an Albert Pujols liner in the left foot and had to leave in the first inning.  Both are day-to-day.

Hurry Back!  Rich Aurilia (Giants) heads to the DL.  Evan Meek (Pirates) has a strained obligue – gets a DL stint.  Wesley Wright (Astros) has a strained left shoulder – gets a DL stint, too.

Welcome Back!  Other than Pedro, Lance Berkman (Astros) returned from the DL and helped slaughter my Marlins…  Another Astro – LaTroy Hawkins, also came off the DL yesterday.  The Giants returned Nick Hundley from the DL, as well as outfielder Nate Schierholtz…

Afterthoughts…  Colorado had signed Adam Eaton to the minor league deal and yesterday recalled Eaton from AAA.  Do they want to know how high of an ERA Eaton can get?  I mean, what’s the goal here?

Yesterday’s Trivia:  How to get from Tom Gordon to Rube Waddell in six steps?

When Gordon arrived, one of his teammates was the aging Billy Buckner, whose rookie team in 1972 included Hoyt Wilhelm.  Wilhelm played in St. Louis in 1957 with Stan Musial, whose 1941 teammate was future Hall of Famer Eppa Rixey.  Rixey’s career started in Philadelphia many, many moons earlier when he was a teammate of slugger Gavy Cravath.  Cravath’s career came together when he was an outfielder for the Minneapolis Millers from 1910 to 1911, where he was a teammate of Rube Waddell – who had joined the Millers prior to the 1911 season and would win the American Association.

Joba Should Start; It’s Elementary

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One of the great debates in baseball right now is whether Joba Chamberlain should be a starter or reliever.  To me, it comes down to simple math.  A major league baseball team will pitch about 1425 innings each year – so the object would be to get as many quality innings in those 1425 as you can.  This is why a starter who pitches 200 good innings is aways worth more than a reliever who pitches 70 good innings.

So, what is Joba Chamberlain worth as a starter?  As a starter, his career ERA is about 3.30 – which is about a run and a half per nine better than the average AL pitcher.  This year, his ERA is 3.81 despite pitching in that horrific launching pad that is new Yankee Stadium.  Assuming he pitches about 180 innings, he’d save the Yankees 28 runs over what the average pitcher would allow in a season.  (180 / 9 x 1.4 = 28). 

Let’s assume that, as a reliever, Joba pitches 72 innings of relief.  To make it an even switch, Joba’s ERA would have to be about 3.5 runs less than the average pitcher (28 / (72/9)).  Basically he’d have to maintain an ERA of about 1.25. 

Is that likely?  Probably not.  As such, Joba Chamberlain should remain a member of the rotation where he gives the Yankees the most good innings and has the greatest effect on winning games.

Cards Getting Healthier; David Price is Back!

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Rick Ankiel made it back to the lineup on Sunday, sending Tyler Green back to AAA Memphis. Colby Rasmus was so good in his callup that Ankiel is going to move to right field for the time being. This coming weekend, Ryan Ludwick returns. This, coupled with the hopes that Chris Carpenter could stay healthy is the type of thing that baseball writers will look at and wonder if this means that the Cards will win the NL Central.

X-Rays show a broken bone in Brandon Phillips’ thumb, but the Reds second sacker hopes that he will not require a DL stint and will be able to play when the swelling goes down. His teammate, Joey Votto, remains day-to-day with dizziness tied to an inner ear infection. Saturday, Votto hit a pair of homers. Yesterday, he sat.

Rockies catcher Chris Iannetta’s hamstring injury is bad enough to require a DL stint. Yorvit Torrealba gets the starts while AAA Catcher Paul Phillips gets the call to the big leagues. Phillips can play a little, but at 32 isn’t really a long-term prospect. You Royals fans may remember Phillips in any of four stints with the parent club between 2004 and 2007.

Yankees reliever Brian Bruney remains sidelined with elbow pain, but tests have shown no damage. He’s day-to-day and slightly nervous. Joba Chamberlain won’t miss his next start after getting drilled with a liner in the first inning of his last start.

Welcome to the majors (again), David Price, who gets the start on Monday for the Rays.

Meanwhile, the Rays had both middle infielders dinged up on Sunday. Jason Bartlett injured his shin and ankle in a collision at second base with Dan Uggla and will sit a day. Akinori Iwamura injured his knee when Chris Coghlan barrelled into him to break up a double play. Aki gets an MRI and possibly a DL stint.

Coghlan’s slide was hard – Aki had stepped to the inside of the bag after taking the throw from pitcher Dan Wheeler, so Coghlan leaned over and into him right as Aki planted his left foot – didn’t look bad and he looked like he felt bad about it right away. What was amazing about the play, however, was that John Baker saw what had happened and never stopped running around third base. Don’t the umps usually call time when this happens? They didn’t, and Jason Bartlett alertly took the ball out of Aki’s hand, threw home, and nailed Baker at the plate for a rather odd 1-4-6-2 DP.

K-Rod’s back feels much better. Could be pitching by mid-week. Apparently, he’s a big fan of the muscle relaxors and pain killers.

A fun play yesterday… Indian Grady Sizemore tripled, but the throw from right field got past third base. So, Sizemore headed home. Reds Left Fielder Johnny Gomes had raced in to back up third (way alert), saved the ball before it got to the dugout, and fired home. Sizemore juked right and dove over the reach of the catcher but was ruled out.

However, the third baseman Adam Rosales was sort of still in the baseline, and because he pulled his leg out of Sizemore’s way (not sure that Sizemore would have hit him either way), the third base umpire ruled that Sizemore was entitled to home because of interference. Dusty Baker argued – but to be honest, the home plate umpire was on the wrong side of the play at the plate anyway – Sizemore had eluded the tag.

So, the right result, the wrong call, and all you get to see is Baker getting angry and Gomes getting nothing for a really alert and smart play. Baker, by the way, looks like he’s lost a little weight.

Anyway – the run tied the score, but the Reds won in extra innings.

One last Reds note – Homer Bailey was awful in his start and was dispatched back to AAA. Granted, it’s tough to stick in the majors when you only get one start, but Bailey has a 7.01 ERA in 18 MLB starts and hitters like him to the tune of a .311 average. Cincy called up catching prospect Wilkin Castillo, a mobile Dominican who might have a chance to stick in the bigs if he gets a chance. He looks like a Miguel Olivo type.

Rehab assignments? Rick VandenHurk (Marlins) off to Jupiter; Chad Bradford (Rays) off to Charlotte.

Marcus Thames is back in AAA for the Tigers, and the Giants chose to call up some catching reinforcements, bringing up Eli Whiteside. He’s a defensive wizard, I guess, because he can’t hit. Off to AAA Fresno? Pat Misch, who was allowing hitters to bat .375 against him. His days as a prospect are likely over.