Chasing Pete Rose

In honor of Ichiro Suzuki getting his 4000th hit in his professional career – and Pete Rose reminding everyone that those hits in Japan shouldn’t count, I thought I’d see who was chasing Rose by age group and determine if anyone had a chance to catch him.

Before I do, though, let’s remind Rose that Ichiro didn’t start playing in the US until his was 27 and when he got here he was already a dominant hitter (.350, 242 hits).  Had he come to the US when he was younger, he likely would have had at least five additional years of 200 hits or so – which means he might already have 3700 hits in the US and a legitimate shot at having more hits than Rose.

But that’s no matter…

Let’s do this by age as the oldest active hitter right now is Jason Giambi. Giambi leads all 42 year olds in hits with 1968 coming into the season and is a threat to make it to 2000, but not much further.  #2 on this list is Brian Giles, who hasn’t played in forever…

(41)  The leaders at 41 are all in the clubhouse – literally.  Pudge Rodriguez had 2844 hits, followed by Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, and Garret Anderson.  The active leader in this group is Andy Pettitte, with 27.

(40)  Like 42, this is not a prolific hitting group, led by the long-retired Shawn Green at 2003.

(39)  The first age with a challenger – Derek Jeter.  Jeter was making progress until this year, where he has but four hits.  He needed another year of around 200.  At 3308, he needs about 950 hits to catch Rose, which means playing well until he is at least 45.  That’s not likely.  He could finish in the top five, though.  Suzuki is on this list – 2722 as of this week.

(38)  Vlad Guerrero leads people at 38 with 2590, but he is done (sadly).  Bengie Molina is the active leader, assuming he still has a job at the end of the year.

(37)  Alex Rodriguez opened the year with 2901, and then sat most of it out.  He would likely have cleared 3000, and even if he played long enough to fulfill his contract, I don’t see him getting the additional 1300 hits he’s going to need to catch Rose.  He’d have to play until he is 47, which is chemically possible.

Paul Konerko and Torii Hunter are the other active leaders, but neither would be expected to make it to 2500, much less 3000. David Ortiz and Lance Berkman might make it to 2000 – Ortiz could make it by the end of the year with a hot streak, and push toward 2500 before it’s over.

(36)  Michael Young leads the group, with Carlos Beltran behind him.  Young looked like a candidate to make a run for 3000 at one point, but now looks like he might run out of gas without making 2500.  Beltran’s knees may betray him before he makes 2500, too.

(35)  The leader in the clubhouse is Juan Pierre, but it’s going to be tough to make it to 3000 (he has about 800 to go) as a fourth outfielder.  Aramis Ramirez will make a run toward about 2400 before it ends.

(34)  Adrian Beltre will finish 2013 with about 2400 hits.  He looks to be on a good roll, but he’s reached the age at which, well, age matters.  I think he may finish with the same number of hits as George Brett.  Jimmy Rollins has closed in on 2200, but he isn’t going to make it to 3000 without finding the foutain of youth.

(33)  Albert Pujols dominates this age group, but the last two years, including an injury-plagued 2013, have slowed his pace.  He’s less than 700 hits from 3000, which still seams easily within reach, but going deep in the 3000s no longer seems probable.  Matt Holiday passed Mark Teixeira this year, but he still needs about 300 to get to 2000 and will make a run at 3000, but not without staying healthy and productive for at least six more years.

(32)  To have a shot at 4000 hits, someone who is 32 should already be well past 2000 hits.  Alex Rios leads this group and will finish the year with more than 1500 hits.  He’ll make it to 2000, but he won’t make 2500.

(31)  The leader at this age group, Carl Crawford, seemed on his way after, say, 2009.  He has lost his momentum, though, and may be hard pressed to turn what will be about 1800 hits to 3000.  Adrian Gonzalez is on this list – pushing 1500, but hard pressed to make much more than 2500.

(30)  Miguel Cabrera dominates this age group – he will finish 2013 around 2000 hits.  I don’t see him averaging 200 hits a year until he’s 40, but he could average 160 hits a year for that long.  That means he needs to play two or three more years beyond 40 to get to 4000 hits.  Obviously this is conjecture, but Cabrera is the only guy with even a SMALL chance of competing with Pete Rose, but you never know.  I’m rooting for him.

The rest of the 30s, including Jose Reyes, Robinson Cano, and David Wright, will push 2500, but not much more.  Reyes may not stay healthy enough to make 2000…

(29)  Leading this group are Nick Markakis, Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun, all between 1300 and 1400 hits.  None of these will make 3000 hits, much less 4000.

(28)  You’d think you might have a bunch of hitters with well over 1200 hits here, but you have one – Ryan Zimmerman.  None of the really good hitters in this age group (Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki) started the year over 1000 – or can stay healthy.

(27)  Billy Butler passed 1000 this year and is rolling past 1100 now.  Adam Jones is making a run at 1000 by the end of the season.  After that, nobody has made any real progress.  Those are the only two making any run at 2000 hits – and will be hard pressed to make 2500.

(26)  The top bat in this group will likely be Andrew McCutchen, who will finish the year north of 800.  Ten years of 170 hits would be 2500, and he’d have some time to make 3000.  Austin Jackson might make 2000, as could Pablo Sandoval, if he becomes a DH.

(25)  Nobody is challenging Justin Upton, who will be short of 800 hits by the end of the season.  I thought he had the best chance to have statistics that looked like Hank Aaron going into 2012, but he hasn’t taken that next step forward.  If he gets going, he could make 3000.  If not, he might not make 2000 and that would be sad.

(24)  The early leader is Elvis Andrus, who will be around 800 at the end of 2013.  That’s where you need to be at this point – pushing that first 1000 at the end of your age 25 season.  His glove will keep him around and he seems to be making marginal progress every year.  He needs to stay at the top of the lineup to get the at bats, but he is best poised for 3000 hits of the younger players.

(23)  Starlin Castro is having an off year in 2013, but will still finish the year around 700 hits.  Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton are on this list – but already a couple of hundred hits off Castro’s pace.  The other young hitters are just getting started.  Castro is the one to watch.  If he can start rattling off hits for the next seven years, he could be well on the way to a big number.

(22)  Heading into this season, there were no players with any active history.  That doesn’t bode bell for someone running far beyond 2000 hits.

(21)  Mike Trout – 209 hits heading into the season, 400 hits at the end of the season.  That’s the kind of start that suggests a big number in the future – we can check in ten years and see what is happening…

(20)  Bryce Harper and Manny Machado – both are capable and just getting started.

AL Designated Hitters

Rather than rank them, I’ll just sort by team – especially since some teams didn’t really have a standard DH (Detroit, for example).

Baltimore:  Luke Scott got 89 games, the rest were mixed.  Scott is an above average offensive player with legitimate power and enough patience to help out (55 walks in 128 games).  Scott is not really an outfielder, but he can back people up in right field if required.  (73.3 Runs Created)

Boston:  David Ortiz played 139 games.  We know about his horrible first two months, but he finished strong – 28 homers and 99 RBI.  I don’t think he can rebound to being a .300/.400/.550 guy again, but if he gets off to a quicker start and hits close to .260, he’ll remain valuable.  (81.0 Runs Created)

Chicago:  Jim Thome played 98 games before being traded…  Still a great hitter and the Twins will like him.  Is Carlos Quentin the first choice in 2010?  Thome was productive – more so than Ortiz per 27 outs, but played far fewer games.  (61.7 Runs Created)

Cleveland:  Travis Hafner played 88 games…  He and the Indians are still recovering.  The rest were shared amongst the other teammates.  Hafner may never hit 25 homers again…  (61.6 Runs Created)

Detroit:  Didn’t really have a regular – Marcus Thames got 50 games, Carlos Guillen 33, Aubrey Huff 28 brutally bad games down the stretch.  Magglio Ordonez should have the job because he’s been an immobile object in right for several years now.

Kansas City:  Mike Jacobs got the bulk of the work – 102 games – and it was crushingly unproductive.  49 Runs Created, less than four runs per 27 outs.  There just weren’t a whole lot of better options – the team needs to add DEPTH and add it fast.  (49.0 Runs Created)

Los Angeles:  Vladimir Guerrero stayed healthy enough for 93 games, the rest were split among friends…  Vlad is now in Texas, but  I would be concerned about his health, as his body is breaking down after a rather long and productive career.  Even last year, falling off as a hitter, he was still productive.  Hideki Matsui‘s job now…  (58.7 Runs Created)

Minnesota:  Jason Kubel got half, Joe Mauer used the position for his bat and resting his back…  As a hitter, Kubel was the second most productive of the DH regulars.  (98.1 Runs Created)

New York:  Hideki Matsui‘s primary job – 116 games.  Kubel may have created more runs, but Matsui created more runs per 27 outs (7.0).  Now an Angel, if he can stay healthy he’d still be productive even with losing 10 – 20% of his skills.  (87.0 Runs Created)

Oakland:  Jack Cust got 96 games, Jason Giambi – while in town – got 22 more.  Nomar Garciaparra also got 22 games here.  Cust struck out 36% of the time – a frightening number – and yet had a .359 OBP and created runs.  (78.5 Runs Created)

Seattle:  Ken Griffey‘s last job as a Mariner.  Mike Sweeney was his platoon partner.  They combined for 27 homers and 91 RBI – but the net batting average and OBP was rather pedestrian.

Tampa:  Pat (The Bat) Burrell‘s job 112 times, otherwise Willy Aybar.  Aybar was better…  When Burrell signed, I don’t think 14 – 64 – .221 was what they had in mind.  (48.5 Runs Created)

Texas:  Andruw Jones and Hank Blalock split 100 games, the rest were dished out with Julio Borbon getting 21 shots.  Nobody really helped the cause, which is why Vlad Guerrero was added to the roster.

Toronto:  Adam Lind, a born DH, was here 92 times.  Randy Ruiz got 30, and the rest were shared…  Lind was the best hitter of the bunch – 36 – 108 – .305.  He’ll play outfield from time to time, but in a few years, he’ll be Jim Thome for sure.  Randy Ruiz was just as good in his shot – 10 homers in 115 at bats and batted .313.

Top AL First Basemen in 2009

Let’s put some of this fun data together and look at the top players by position.  Today, we’ll start with the AL First Basemen.

What I have done is taken the basic runs created data (an older Bill James formula modified to account for the park in which that player played) and my defensive runs saved data and combined them into a Total Run Production number.  The best players will create the most runs offensively and prevent the most runs defensively.

Kendry Morales (LAA) – Now THAT’S an impact season.  You start with the power and average – 34 – 108 – .306.  He didn’t walk a lot, but he added more than 40 doubles, too.  Morales is also a very mobile first baseman – more mobile than Teixeira.  I show him creating about 115 runs of offense and then saving his team about 38 runs defensively.  This isn’t the first time that he’s had impressive defensive stats at first.  In more than 450 innings there in 2006 he was very good and in 121 innings in 2007 he had similar range numbers.  (115.4 Runs Created, 37.8 Runs Saved = 153.20 Total Run Production)

Mark Teixeira (NYY) – It was close, but Morales’ defensive numbers put him over the top.  I’m not suggesting that Teixeira is BAD defensively.  He’s not.  He’s got soft hands and makes many, many impressive plays.  However, in the last four years he’s been all over the map.  Not so good in Texas, decent in a half season in Atlanta.  Then, after a slower start in ATL in 2008, he was very good with the Angels.  He was above average last year with the Yankees.  As a hitter, Tex was worth 20 more runs, but as a fielder, Morales made up for it with about five runs to spare.  I think I’d rather have Tex on my fantasy team, though.  (135.6 Runs Created, 12.7 Runs Saved = 148.32 Total Run Production)

Miguel Cabrera (DET) – An alcohol problem surfaced in 2009 and yet he was still very productive.  Hopefully, a cleaner Cabrera will have a breakout season in 2010.  In 2009, he wasn’t half bad at first base and he remains one of the most productive hitters at any position.  I’d draft him.  (132.7 Runs Created, 0.9 Runs Saved = 133.62 Total Run Production)

Kevin Youkilis (BOS) – A great fielder at two positions, Boston looks to get more time for Youkilis at first base with Adrian Beltre playing the hot corner.  Where the top three guys were all 30 – 100 – .300 types, Youk was 27 – 94 .305 – just a notch below them in power, but just as patient (if not more so) at the plate.  (109.6 Runs Created, 14.9 Runs Saved = 124.45 Total Run Production)

Russell Branyan (SEA) – Finally getting a full season of at bats (well, he was injured at the end of the year), Branyan delivered the goods.  Solid power and patience, but a lower batting average (.251) than the top tier guys.  And, Branyan was surprisingly good at first base, showing well above average range.  Seattle turned a negative to a huge positive in 2009.  That being said, he still didn’t get to 500 plate appearances and he’s 34.  I bet Branyan would like a second shot at his career – but this might have been his best chance and it took forever for someone (Cleveland) to sign him.  People must not think he can repeat what he did last year.  (81.2 Runs Created, 24.4 Runs Saved = 105.66 Total Run Production)

Paul Konerko (CHI) – The really slow start messed with what was really a pretty good season.  Konerko had an average season defensively and a shade more than 90 runs of offense.  The issue, of course, is that he’s running out of prime years, turning 34 in Spring Training…  (92.5 Runs Created, 7.3 Runs Saved = 99.85 Total Run Production)

Billy Butler (KC) – If you are looking for a sleeper for your fantasy team, you could do worse than drafting this guy…  Butler can hit .300 with some power – which will likely get better as he ages.  He’s still young and his defense, while not great, wasn’t miserably bad.  Personally, I’d rather have Butler than Konerko next year.  (103.1 Runs Created, -10.8 Runs Saved = 92.29 Total Run Production.)

Carlos Pena (TB) – Still has world class power (39 homers despite missing a month), but his batting average tanked to .227.  He’s NOT a .300 hitter, and I don’t think he’s really a .227 hitter.  However, he’s coming off a bad wrist injury and is now 32 (well – he will be in May). His defense is still solid, but it’s not what it once was.  Watch how he does in the spring and steal him if he gets off to a decent start.  (91.3 Runs Created, .7 Runs Saved = 92.02 Total Run Production)

Lyle Overbay (TOR) – His defense, normally awesome, slipped in 2009.  His offense, normally tolerable, slipped in 2009.  Overbay isn’t going to hit 20 homers and unless he’s hitting close to .300 and hitting a bunch of doubles and cutting down grounders and line drives to right field, he’s gaining on losing his job to Adam Lind…  He might bounce back some, but he’s not high on my draft list.  (76.1 Runs Created, -1.8 Runs Saved = 74.31 Total Run Production)

Justin Morneau (MIN) – If healthy, Justin Morneau will likely move back up the list in 2010.  However, with stress fractures in his back last year, his batting tanked in the late summer and he couldn’t move well enough in the field.  He generated 90 runs of offense (most of it before the All-Star break), which is okay, but he gave 20 back with his defense – hence the low rating.  (91.4 Runs Created, -20.51 Runs Saved = 70.92 Total Run Production)

Ryan Garko (CLE) – No longer an Indian, Garko was replaced by Andy Marte after being dealt to San Francisco – and Victor Martinez got several innings here, too.  Garko’s net production among two teams was 64.50 (56.5 Runs Created with 8 Runs Saved).  The job may well get split again this year among Marte and Travis Hafner.  Marte, a long time prospect who turned 26 in the offseason, looked like he hadn’t spent much time there and Victor Martinez looked like a catcher trying to play first base.  To be fair, a full season of Garko wouldn’t be horrible – it might be better than having Lyle Overbay these days.  Roster Update!!! The Indians signed Russell Branyan to a one-year deal as spring training started – so if Branyan is healthy, the Indians could have a solid answer for 2010.

Aubrey Huff (BAL) – Now plying his trade for San Francisco, Huff had an off season to say the least.  Between two teams, Huff’s total production was 58.70 runs (63.8 Runs Created, but -5.1 runs saved).  The new first baseman could be Michael Aubrey, a former Indian prospect who has some skills and the same, albeit displaced, name.  He’s going to field a little better than Huff and he MIGHT hit pretty well, too.  Suffering through injuries in the minor leagues, Baltimore hopes this Aubrey is a late bloomer.  God forbid they have to play Garrett Atkins there.

Chris Davis (TEX) – Shared the role with Hank Blalock, none of which is the answer…  At least Davis has some range and a little power but he sure does strikeout a lot.  If you combine Davis and Blalock, the total production is close to the production of Carlos Pena and his backups…  (47.4 Runs Created, 10.1 Runs Saved = 57.44 Total Run Production)

Daric Barton (OAK) – Barton took over for Jason Giambi and wasn’t horrible.  He fielded the position well and he gets on base some – though you wish he had a little more power.  He’s 70% of Mark Grace, but he’s 24 and has a little room left to grow…  The A’s could choose to go with Eric Chavez here if they let Kevin Kouzmanoff play third base all season.  Barton also serves as the emergency catcher, having started his career as a catcher out of high school.

Quick Notes… Having done this, the median starting first baseman in the AL produced about 92 runs for his team and the replacement level would have been about 70 runs of production.  The latter seems a little low in that Minnesota’s final number, if you included the time spent at first base by Michael Cuddyer, would have been closer to 85 or 90 runs.  So, more realistically, your first basemen have to generate at least 90 runs of production lest they need to be replaced.  Morales and Teixeira were, in essence, about six wins better than the average first baseman.

Matthews a Met; Ankiel a Royal – and Other Hot Stove Happenings

With the prospects of missing centerfielder Carlos Beltran for at least a month, the Mets acquired outfielder Gary Matthews, Jr. from the Angels for middle reliever Brian Stokes.  The Angels, who overpaid for Matthews having a good year back in 2006, sent more than $20 million back to the Mets to cover the bulk of Matthews’ salary.  For Matthews, who wants to play every day but hasn’t been more than a fourth outfielder since 2007, this is a chance to earn full-time status – in center for now, and possibly in right field once Beltran returns – assuming Beltran is healthy.  [SI]

I’m not sure why the Mets want him.

Matthews used to hit for power – a little bit.  In 2006, he stunned everyone by hitting 19 homers and batting .313 for Texas – and making a highlight reel catch off Mike Lamb where he climbed a wall and reached over it to steal away a homer.  He hit 18 more in his first season in Anaheim, though his other numbers fell off.  Then, Matthews was named in a steroid ring that ended Jason Grimsley’s career.  Since then, Matthews’ power has fell off the map – eight homers in 2008 and just four last year – 12 in more than 700 at bats.  While he will take a walk and can still run the bases smartly, he strikes out more than ever.

His defense is slipping.  He was okay in 2006 and 2007, but fell off in 2008 and was below average in 2009.  Matthews isn’t getting any younger, either, having turned 35 in August.  So, the likelihood is that neither his bat or wheels are suddenly going to improve.  With the Angels picking up the tab, he’s cheap help and if he has a good six weeks and Beltran is healthy, I guess that’s worth $1 million in New York.

Good luck with that.

The Angels get a righty reliever who has been marginally better than average despite not having a consistent command of the strike zone.  Brian Stokes came up with Tampa, moved to New York in 2008, and has been decent despite not having a big strikeout pitch.  He’s not really a long term prospect, but he helps fill out the bullpen by providing an experienced arm for the ninth or tenth spot on the staff.

Another confusing move…

The Phillies signed Jose Contreras to a one-year deal.  The last Cuban player who was a teammate of Fidel Castro, Contreras has moved back and forth with the White Sox; two of the last three years he was costing the team about 20 runs more than the average pitcher – and his control is slipping, as if he’s trying to be more careful with his pitches.  Maybe Contreras can fill a long relief, spot starting role.  For sure, even at this stage, he’s probably more dependable than trying Adam Eaton or Chan Ho Park again.  [SI]

What are the Royals Thinking?

The Kansas City Royals signed outfielder Rick Ankiel to a one year deal worth $3.25 million, with bonuses and an option for 2011.  It’s not a HORRIBLE deal – but another signing of a 30 year old guy whose career isn’t moving in the right direction.  Having switched from his pitching days, Ankiel is getting more comfortable in centerfield; his range and runs saved rankings have gone from a negative to a positive in the last three years.  However, his power – Ankiel is another guy caught in the PED scandal – has fallen off.  In 2007, Ankiel slugged .500, but last year it was under .400.  The Royals COULD benefit from picking up a guy who is on the cheap after an off-season, but I’d rather have Chris Gomez coming off an off season than a 30 year old centerfielder.  I think Ankiel could help the Royals in right – so, if you see him there the Royals may do okay provided he stays healthy (an oufield of DeJesus, Podsednik, and Ankiel would be a step up, though I’d rather see Mitch Maier in center if his bat steps forward…).

Milwaukee Addresses Rotation…

In my “Worst NL Pitchers” list, you couldn’t help but notice that the Brewers were loaded with guys who weren’t helping the cause in the rotation.  Earlier, the Brewers added Randy Wolf and now Milwaukee adds lefty (and former Brew Crew) Doug Davis. Each of the last three years, Davis has been an above average pitcher, a dependable lefty capable of six good innings and ten wins.  I like this move because it continues to lower the predicted runs allowed number for Milwaukee – and I think makes them a contender in the NL Central this year.  [MLB]

Quick Hits…

So Taguchi is retiring from US baseball and heading back to Onix in Japan.  [MLB]

Despite an ailing shoulder, the Giants are happy with the Freddy Sanchez deal and signing.  [MLB]

Javier Vasquez may call it a career after 2010?  [ESPN]

Is Jason Giambi coming back to Colorado for 2010?  [ESPN]

Afterthoughts…

A’s prospect Grant Desme, recently named the most valuable player in the Arizona Fall League is retiring – to pursue the pulpit.  “I love the game, but I aspire to higher things,” Desme said.  [SI]

Your Baseball Weekend Update…

John Smoltz’s career has life after beating San Diego Sunday.  Smoltz threw five shutout innings and fanned nine batters.  Maybe the AL is tougher than the NL – but it certainly helps to face a punchless San Diego team, too.  [MLB/SI]

For the second time in history (according to STATS, Inc, that’s who), Eric Bruntlett ended a game by himself – recording an unassisted triple play to help Brad Lidge avoid another blown save and give Pedro Martinez a win over his former team, the Mets.  The score stood 9 – 7 after a run scoring single by Daniel Murphy.  Murphy and Luis Castillo, who was on second, attempted a double steal when Jeff Francouer launched a Lidge pitch back up the middle where Bruntlett was moving…  Bruntlett caught the liner, stepped on second, and tagged Murphy.  [MLB/SI]

Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez will be more careful next time – he stabbed himself in the left hand with a falling steak knife, requiring a single stitch but keeping him out of the lineup for the next couple of days.  [SI]

Meanwhile, the Rockies have come to terms with free agent Jason Giambi, most recently released by the Oakland As.  He’d be a nice bench option, that’s for certain.  [ESPN]

Moving to the Rockies rotation, the pitching staff took a big hit when Aaron Cook hit the DL with a sore shoulder.  Cook had to leave Friday’s start with a strain and an MRI is scheduled for Monday.  If the Rockies have to use Adam Eaton down the stretch, pencil in San Francisco or the Dodgers as the Wild Card team in the NL.   Josh Fogg is the other option (not appreciably better), and Matt Herges got the call from AAA Colorado Springs to join the roster. [FoxSports]

Reds starter Aaron Harang’s season came to an end thanks to emergency appendectomy surgery.  He’ll see restricted activity for about three weeks before he can do anything physical in nature.  According to SI, Harang is the ninth player to head to the DL for Cincinnati, and the seventh to require surgery – which is an amazing number, really.  Fortunately, Scott Rolen came off the DL – but he can’t pitch.  [SI]

Boston may have claimed Billy Wagner off the waiver wire (the Mets haven’t decided whether to allow the claim, work a deal, or pull him back), but apparently the bullpen wouldn’t have done it.  Both Jonathon Papelbon and Manny Delcarmen weren’t excited about it when asked by WEEI radio earlier this weekend.  [ESPN]

FoxSports reported that David Eckstein will remain in San Diego next year and signed a contract extension for 2010…  He’s not really a championship level producer anymore, but he’s an extra coach for a young team and Eckstein does have a history of being on winning teams.  [FoxSports]

Here’s a position that won’t get much of an argument… FoxSports Jon Paul Morosi makes his case that Ichiro Suzuki will one day enter the Hall of Fame.   His take on it is mostly “Well, he has more hits than anybody, and Ken Griffey says he’s a Hall of Famer…”  Let’s look at it more subjectively.  Assuming he finishes the season and gets 16 more hits in the last 40 games or so – meaning he won’t get injured or suddenly freeze at the plate – Ichiro will have nine straight seasons of 200 hits, more than 2000 in his career, and his fourth season batting at least .350.  Dusting off a 1986 Bill James Baseball Abstract, his Hall of Fame calculator shows that Ichiro has  collected nearly 200 points of accomplishments that Hall of Fame voters tend to consider when voting for someone – which makes him, well, overqualified (the gray area is from 70 – 130; beyond that is pretty much guaranteed in, unless you are Pete Rose or Barry Bonds).  Then, you add that he was the first Japanese position player and remains one of the most skilled outfielders and hitters – he certainly qualifies as both famous and great.   Ichiro may wind up with more professional hits than Pete Rose when it’s all over – he could have 4500 hits if you count his days in Japan.

Hurry Back! Alfonso Soriano continues to miss games with a sore knee.  Gee – I thought it was his poor batting.  (Sorry – Angry Cub Fan in me typing that one…)  Marlins reliever Brendan Donnelly hits the DL with a calf strain.  I watched the play – I’m not sure what he did, but if he can’t field a grounder without getting hurt, he needs to step aside.  Phillies infielder Greg Dobbs also has a strained calf.  Cardinal starter Kyle Lohse just came off the DL – he heads back with a strained groin (hopefully his own).

Welcome Back! Miguel Cairo was called up by the Phillies to take Dobbs’ spot.  Did you see that Armando Benitez was signed by Houston?  He heads to Round Rock to see if he can still pitch.    Jason Grilli returned to Texas from the DL.  Seattle is giving one more shot to former Marlin Randy Messenger.  I can answer this for you – this Messenger has already been shot.

Pennant Chances:  Now that the season has entered its final quarter, let’s pronounce some races over…

Nobody is catching the Phillies or Cards.  The Yankees would have a significant collapse if they were to lose now, as would the Angels.  Even though it’s closer than before, I have faith in the Dodgers – but give Colorado a 15% chance to win, and San Francisco 10%.  The NL Wild Card is too close to call, but it’s going to be one of the teams from the West.  If someone were to surprise, it’s going to be Atlanta because they suddenly have a healthy pitching staff – but it’s getting late to put up a fight.  I’d give them a 15% chance of pulling it off.  The closest race is Detroit and Chicago in the AL Central, and I am relatively confident it will be Detroit by a nose because Chicago plays too sloppily to win.  Minnesota doesn’t have a fight in them this season thanks to a failing rotation.  The AL Wild Card will be the best race because Texas is good enough to win and Boston is just crazy enough to blow it right now.  I know – I picked Boston to win it all, but the last three weeks have been disastrous and I don’t see how they will get out of it.  I give Tampa a 15% chance of surprising somebody.

Might Be Yankees Year; Giambi and Padilla join Smoltz on Released and Designated for Assignment List

I struggled to stay up to watch the Yankees-Red Sox fifteen inning masterpiece – a great game, really, with loads of amazing pitching and the best stained player of his generation hitting a game-winning homer in the 15th inning to win it.  You had Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, former teammates in Florida, dueling it out before handing it to the bullpen.  And it was the bullpen of the Sox – heck, the pitching of the Sox, once touted for its depth and skill and now looking frazzled and weak – that finally caved.  The one time weakness, the Yankees bullpen, pitched nearly eight innings of beautiful baseball.  It’s certainly not over.  Ali looked like he would finish Frazier in 4 rounds in Manilla, if you remember, but Frazier gamely came back for more.  A war of this size cannot be won in a single series.  But the Yankees look like the best team in the AL East, and Tampa might be #2.  And the difference is depth – depth in offense and pitching, which the Yankees have now, and the Sox do not.

Speaking of the Red Sox pitching…  What to do with John Smoltz, he of the 8-plus ERA?  He’s been designated for assignment.  The Sox have ten days to trade or release him, and then Smoltz will have to figure out what he wants to do.  Should he head to the minors and work through it?  Should he take another offer?  Should he ride off in his golf cart into the sunset?  If so, he’ll have plenty of people to golf with – now that Maddux and Glavine also have free time.  The PGA Champions Tour will have to look out.  Smoltz is coming soon.  [MLB, SI, ESPN, FoxSports]

Just as the Cubs started rolling after the All-Star break, another pitcher stumbles.  This time, it’s Carlos Zambrano who was scratched from his start with a stiff lower back.  [SI]

And, the Dodgers don’t need this – Chad Billingsley tweaked his hamstring running the bases after hitting a single in the sixth inning.  Billingsley tried to pitch at the start of the seventh, but one warmup pitch later, he was done.  He’s start to start, but a DL stint wouldn’t be surprising.  [MLB]

Seattle’s Erik Bedard has fraying in his sore throwing shoulder – and will likely miss this season and if another MRI shows more damage, could require surgery.  [SI]

The Minnesota Twins could use some starting pitching, and Cleveland – who had given up on 2009 – gave them Carl Pavano.  Pavano will actually start Saturday for the Twins.  Cleveland put Pavano on the waiver wire, the Twins pegged him, so the two clubs worked out a deal.  Cleveland will get a player to be named later.  [MLB]

Baltimore also got a player to be named later when they agreed to trade catcher Greg Zaun to Tampa.  Chad Moeller was recalled from AAA to back up Matt Wieters.  [SI]

Most teams are looking for help.  Here are two teams that are moving in the other direction.  Texas designated Vincente Padilla for assignment.  Padilla hasn’t been in the good graces of Rangers management – and now management has ten days to trade, release, or send Padilla to the minors.  And, Oakland released Jason Giambi.  The 38-year-old slugger has been fighting a quad injury that has him on the DL – and now he’s got time to find a new job.  If he’s healthy, he might be able to help someone off the bench for six weeks – so somebody might take a flyer on him.  [SI]

Alex Rios was considered a franchise type player by Toronto.  Now, he’s been put on the waiver wire and according to sources, some team put in a claim.  Toronto can let him go (the new team takes on the rest of his $60 million in salary), or pull him back and make a trade offer.  [FoxSports]

Welcome Back!  Geovany Soto (Cubs), Darin Erstad (Astros), Rich Aurilia (Giants) all returned from the DL.  Chris Woodward had been released by Seattle – Boston needs a shortstop badly, so they signed him up…

Hurry Back!  Astro reliever Doug Brocail heads to the DL with a strained right shoulder.  The Dodgers got two starts out of Jason Schmidt before he headed back to the DL with a strained shoulder.  Now THAT was a good investment of $47 million… 

Welcome to the Majors!  Julio Borbon was called up by Texas.  He’s hit over .300 the last couple of years heading through the minors, but in cities that make people look like hitters.  He’s got some speed and won’t turn down a walk, but isn’t likely to get one because he makes so much contact.  He’s probably no better or worse than Willy Taveras (though he won’t run as often), but he is certainly younger and cheaper…

Schmidt Returns With Win; Wang Injury Bug Continues

Yankee starter Chien-Ming Wang’s 2009 disaster season continues…  He was playing catch when he felt soreness in his bicep.  He won’t throw again until Friday, and if I were him, I’d be looking to get in shape for 2010.  [ESPN]

Texas closer Frank Francisco heads to the DL with pneumonia – he’ll be back soon, but he needs his rest and fluids.  C.J. Wilson will close, and Willie Eyre gets the call from AAA.  [ESPN]

Mets starter Fernando Nieve’s injury was pretty severe – he tore a muscle in his quad.  He’s out six weeks.  Welcome back to the bigs, Cory Sullivan, who used to be an outfielder for Colorado.  Sullivan’s stay may be short-lived – the Mets will likely call up a starter (Jon Niese?) to take Nieve’s start in the rotation.  [SI]

Speaking of bad quads, A’s first baseman/DH Jason Giambi’s quad has been problematic, and now he’s on the DL.  Giambi’s been day-to-day for weeks with a variety of quad and hamstring injuries.  [SI]

Cincinatti catcher Ramon Hernandez’s knee now requires surgery – which means an extended DL stint.  Coming up to pick up some innings will be Craig Tatum.  Tatum is hard to read – the Mississippi State grad has some power and tools, but has had periods where he hit .320 (FSL, 2007) and .231 (Southern League – same year).  My take is a low average power guy – .220 with 12 homers in 250 at bats type.  Ryan Hannigan, who has been a nice surprise, will get most of the innings, though.  FYI – Hannigan went to Rollins College in Winter Park, FL, the same college that Rube Waddell attended and occasionally coached back in the winter of 1902/1903. [SI]

Welcome back Carlos Quentin – the White Sox slugger has been out two months suffering from plantar fasciitis.   He took over in his old stomping grounds, left field, and cost Brian Anderson a slot on the big league roster.  [SI]

I watched the Phillies and Cubs last night – and I saw two teams heading in different directions.  The Phillies are marching toward the NL East crown after winning their ninth straight, and the Cubs don’t look like they have any direction at all.  And so many of us picked them to win the NL Central, if not challenge for a World Series title.  And now, the Phillies found out Brett Myers may return in August and pitch out of the bullpen.  [MLB]

Welcome Back!  Jason Schmidt was recalled by the Dodgers and won his first start in over two years.  Andy Finch and I saw him in his last rehab start, and he doesn’t have the great fastball – but he has enough to fool people.  However, he was hit a little even by the Memphis Redbirds, so he’ll need to really be on top of his control to win in the bigs.  I’m rooting for him, but not putting him on my fantasy roster any time soon.

Colorado signed Matt Herges to a minor league deal.  He still has some gas in the tank.  Tommy Hanson returned to the Braves (and looked great), and J.D. Martin joined Washington for a start last night.  Cleveland fans might remember Martin – he was once hailed as a top prospect back in 2002, and was a 2001 first round pick out of high school.  Injuries cut into his development, but he’s never really pitched poorly.  He’s got good control, strikes guys out, and at times has looked dominating.

Hurry Back!  Houston’s Darin Erstad and San Diego’s Edgar Gonzalez were both put on the 15-day DL.  Florida’s Andrew Miller was sent to AAA to find his command.