Category Archives: Jason Bartlett

Happy Anniversary, Hammerin’ Hank Aaron – and other stuff…

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The Rockies are going to play it safe with Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulo homered among three hits, made two great plays at short – and then left the game to protect a frail groin and deal with tightness in his leg.  [MLB]

It was a rough day in Tampa.  Ray starter Matt Moore left the game with an injury to his left elbow.  Later, Rays reliever Heath Bell drilled Royals infielder Omar Infante in the jaw with a pitch.  Infante left the game with a possible concussion and will have his jaw tested for a possible fracture.  [MLB/SI]

Tigers pitcher Evan Reed is wanted for questioning and likely will face a sexual assault complaint when the Tigers return to Detroit.  [SI]

Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis is scheduled to have arthroscopic surgery on his left knee for a meniscus tear.  He injured himself running the bases on Saturday.  It’s the second such surgery on the same knee in two years.  [SI]

Yankees closer David Robertson likely heads to the DL after straining a groin, hopefully his own, in an outing against Toronto.  An MRI revealed a grade one strain.  [ESPN]

Hurry Back!

KC placed reliever Tim Collins on the DL with a left elbow strain, and pitcher Francisley Bueno on the DL with a sprained middle finger.  Joining the roster are lefty Donnie Joseph and Michael Mariot.

Minnesota placed infielder Jason Bartlett on the DL with a sprained ankle.  The Twins recalled C Chris Herrmann to take Bartlett’s spot on the roster.

Texas placed starter Joe Saunders on the DL with a bruised left ankle.  Texas brings back RHP Daniel McCutchen.

Welcome Back!

Rockies pitcher Boone Logan, Oakland pitcher Ryan Cook, and Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco returned from the DL.

That Didn’t Last Long…

Boston sent Brock Holt back to the minors after having signed Ryan Roberts to a contract.

Transactions:

The Yankees worked out a trade that sends Eduardo Nunez to Minnesota for pitcher Miguel Sulbaran.

Cleveland traded pitcher Preston Guilmet to Baltimore for infielder Torsten Boss.

Baseball 365:

Arrivals:

(1859) Lady Baldwin

Had a short career in the 1880s, but for a couple of years was a very good lefty pitcher.  His nickname, Lady, came about because of his overly gentlemanly ways and his frequently demonstrating nervousness and fear in public situations.

(1915) Kirby Higbe

(1943) John Hiller

(1946) Jim “Catfish” Hunter

Five World Series teams, and the ace of the great As teams of the early 1970s.  Didn’t mess around, threw strikes, and got the job done.

(1954) Gary Carter

Like Hunter, left us way too soon.  Great catcher, always looked like he was having fun.

(1979) Jeremy Guthrie

(1983) Chris Ianetta

(1986) King Felix Hernandez, Carlos Santana

(1987) Yonder Alonso

Departures:

(1978) Former Commissioner Ford Frick

(2005) Eddie Miksis

Transactions:

(1963) The Tigers sign Denny McClain, who had been placed on waivers by the White Sox.

Events:

(1922) According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Cardinals debuted their new uniform, which includes two birds on a bat with the word Cardinals across the front in a pre-season exhibition game against the Browns.

(1969) Opening Day for four expansion teams – all winners.  Kansas City, Montreal, Seattle, and San Diego all open their first seasons happily…

(1974) Hank Aaron hits his 715th homer, passing Babe Ruth, off of Al Dowling in Atlanta. [MLB]

(1994) Kent Mercker fires a no-hitter as Atlanta tops the Dodgers.  It was Mercker’s first complete game.

2011 Season Forecast: Tampa Rays

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Last Five Seasons:

2010:  96 – 66 (1st AL East)
2009:  84 – 78
2008:  97 – 65 (AL Champs)
2007:  66 – 96
2006:  61 – 101

Runs Scored: 802 (3rd, AL to NYY and BOS)
Runs Allowed: 649 (2nd, AL to OAK)

2010 Recap:

The Rays got off to a great start, winning 17 of 23 in April and extending their hot play into May where, on May 23rd, they went to sleep in first place with a 32 – 12 record.  An 11 – 14 stumble in June let the rest of the league back in the race, but once July started, the Rays went back to the front of the division, going 19 – 7, followed by a 17 – 12 August.  From there, the Rays seemed to run out of steam, but played .500 ball after September 1st as the Yankees collapsed to take the division crown.

In terms of mid-season transactions, the Rays mostly unloaded parts that weren’t working.  They released Pat Burrell and Hank Blalock, for example.  They did get Chad Qualls at the trading deadline, but he wasn’t much help down the stretch.

As a team, they hit homers and drew walks, but went through stretches where they couldn’t hit.  The Rays were on the wrong end of two no-hitters despite being one of only three teams to score 800 runs.  They have pitchers who throw strikes, a rather deep bullpen, and an AMAZING team defense.  These two items, as I have written before, make their staff look stronger than it really is.

Starters:

The rotation featured David Price, who had Cy Young worthy numbers in terms of wins (19), ERA (2.72), and strikeouts (188 in 208.2 innings).  Price was backed by Matt Garza (15 – 10, 3.91), James Shields (13 – 15, 5.18), Jeff Niemann (12 – 8, 4.39), and rookie Wade Davis (12 – 10, 4.07).  However, knowing that the Rays made few errors and turned 14 balls per 1000 into outs more than the average team AND they played in a park that helped the staff, you realize that many of those pitchers aren’t quite as good as advertised.  James Shields was more than 50 runs worse than the average pitcher because he puts a lot of balls into play, and he served up 34 homers.  Niemann was 19 runs worse than the average pitcher, and Matt Garza – the new Cub – was 14 runs worse than the average pitcher.  Wade Davis was also -11.

This isn’t new – I wrote about this a couple of years ago when the Rays made the series.  A good defense can make a bunch of pitchers who keep the ball in the park and don’t walk people look very good.

Looking ahead, Matt Garza moved to Chicago where he might get to serve up 50 homers.  At least he’s durable.  The rest of the rotation returns intact, joined by Jeremy Hellickson, who looked great in his 4 starts last summer.  Assuming Shields bounces back some (he can), Davis and Niemann show more growth (possible), and Hellickson remains tolerable over 160 innings, the rotation should be 30 runs better than last year.

Bullpen:

On the other hand, the bullpen was amazing in 2010.  Rafael Soriano saved 45 games, supported by Joaquin Benoit and his 1.34 ERA in 63 innings.  Dan Wheeler gave them 64 fair innings, Grant Balfour remained dependable, and even Randy Choate and Lance Cormier weren’t horrible.  Most of this staff is gone.  Right now, the closer looks to be Joel Peralta, the former Royal, Angel, and Rockies reliever who had his best season in 2010 with the Nationals last year – fanning 49 and walking just 9 (4 intentionally) in 49 innings.  In front of Peralta is journeyman fireballer, Kyle Farnsworth who has NEVER been as good as Benoit was last year.  Andy Sonnenstine, who has a very hittable fastball, is there, with a bunch of newcomers, including Ceasr Ramos and Adam Russell, who came from San Diego for Jason Bartlett.  Jake McGee, two years removed from Tommy John surgery, converted to the pen in 2010 and made it to the big leagues.  He’s a power lefty with a nice curveball.  Chris Archer is another hard thrower who might get time in the bullpen this year.  If the starters are going to improve by 30 runs, the bullpen cannot – and no matter what Manager Joe Maddon’s magic, this group will be 50 runs worse than in 2010.

Catching:

John Jaso earned his way ahead of Dioner Navarro and Kelly Shoppach by catching well enough and getting on base at a .375 clip.  Teams ran on Jaso some, and the young Jaso has much to learn, but he helps out.  Kelly Shoppach struggled at the plate, but did hit 5 homers in 158 at bats.  Navarro is gone.

Infield:

A couple of years ago, the infield was a solid Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Akinori Iwamura, and Carlos Pena.  Now, only Longoria – an MVP candidate – remains.   Longoria can hit and field with the best of them and even stole 15 bases in 20 tries.  Bartlett’s bat and glove has fallen off in recent years since he injured his ankle in 2009 and will be replaced by Reid Brignac, who is younger, just as good a hitter, and more mobile.  Sean Rodriguez got a chance to play the infield and hits for some power, can run the bases, and is solid in the field.  Mr. Everywhere, Ben Zobrist, backs them both up.  Carlos Pena is gone, to be replaced by either Dan Johnson (a patient power hitter who, like Pena, failed to hit .200 last year), and possibly Johnny Damon.  I think the offense will remain solid, though it could lose 20 runs at first base overall if Johnson can’t improve in 2011.

Outfield:

Carl Crawford had an MVP-type campaign in 2010, fielding as well as any left fielder, and generating nearly 130 runs of offense with the bat (average and some power) as well as his feet (47 steals).  He’s in Boston now, with Johnny Damon taking over.  Damon is okay, but not anywhere near what Crawford can provide – and he’s going to need time off.  Options include Matt Joyce or Sam Fuld.  In center, B.J. Upton is still frustratingly productive.  He is an above average offensive performer – quick bat, power, speed – but frustrating in that he strikes out a LOT, keeping his average under .240.  Defensively, he remains above average but, again, doesn’t seem to be as good as he could be.  In right, Ben Zobrist fell off from his 2009 season in terms of average and power, but still was productive because he plays solid defense and gets on base.  (I’d let Joyce play left all year and see if he can hit 30 homers knowing he’s a better fielder than Damon, too.  Damon can DH and back up three positions, even providing some production.)

DH:

Pat Burrell couldn’t cut it and Hank Blalock wasn’t the answer.  Willy Aybar fell off last year, though Matt Joyce might have been a decent answer if they let him do it.  Looking ahead, though, the Rays took a cheap flyer on the craziest great hitter of the last two decades, Manny Ramirez.  Say what you will about him, Manny can STILL hit.  He missed a lot of time last year, but when he left Los Angeles, he was hitting .311, with a .410 OBA, and a .510 SLG.  He didn’t hit as well with the White Sox, but he had a .420 OBP.  He won’t do that in Tampa, but he could certainly go 20 – 110 – .285, with walks and doubles.  Johnny Damon could platoon some with him, letting Matt Joyce play left field.

Down on the Farm:

Jeremy Hellickson we noted – the new fifth starter for the Rays – as he went 12 – 3 with 123Ks in 117.2 innings for AAA Durham.  Desmond Jennings, a potential Carl Crawford clone, fell off in terms of his batting average, but he still gets on base and he can FLY.

Jake McGee made it from Montgomery in AA through Durham before getting a cup of coffee with the Rays.  In AA, McGee fanned 100 in 88.1 innings, showed good command (getting better, anyway), and looked awesome in 11 AAA appearances (27Ks, 3 walks, one ER in 17.1 innings).  Alex Torres and Alexander Cobb were solid for Montgomery, winning records, good strikeout rates.  Cobb has better control, but both are young and will spend 2011 in Durham.

Former #1 pick Tim Beckham finished his season with A+ Charlotte and seems to have stalled, but having watched him in the minors, he sure is the one guy on the field you can’t help but notice.  He’s still only 21, so there is time for a step forward.  The best of Charlotte is the young staff, led by Matt Moore, who fanned 208 in 144.2 innings with his powerful fastball and curveball.  Joe Cruz showed solid command, going 13 – 6 – 2.85 in his 142 innings and will start 2011 in AA.  Then you have reliever Zach Quate, who fanned 90 in 72.1 innings, saving 25 games, with great control.

Forecasting 2011:

I don’t see how the Rays are going to repeat winning the AL East crown in 2011, but they won’t be bad and they should take a Wild Card spot.  The rotation may be slightly better, but the bullpen will be well off from last year.  The defense will be better at short (Brignac is better than Bartlett), but worse in left (Damon or Joyce instead of Crawford) and I’m not sure Johnson is better than an aging Carlos Pena at first.  The catching might improve a touch, and more Jaso is better than more Dioner Navarro offensively.  The Rays are better at DH.

I see the offense being good, but a touch worse – maybe 770 runs.  And the runs allowed number will likely go up by 30 runs to about 680.  That puts the Rays at 91 wins, which some will see as a surprise – but not me.

2010 Top AL Shortstops

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Alexei Ramirez – CHI (76.7 Runs Created, 32.1 Runs Saved = 108.8 Total Runs Production)

After an odd year where his bat fell and he couldn’t hit any doubles, Ramirez had a stunning 2010 season.  He slugged .431 thanks to 18 homers and 29 doubles, his batting average was a more than acceptable .282, and he scored 83 runs.  His glove work was spectacular, really – a ball magnet who also helped on the double play.  He earned the new contract…

Cliff Pennington – OAK (66.6 Runs Created, 26.9 Runs Saved = 93.5 Total Runs Production)

Would you have believed he was the second best shortstop in the AL?  His bat is marginally better than average, he played a lot of games, and his defensive range is stunning. His replacing Marco Scutaro was one of many reasons the As moved up in the standings last year.

Elvis Andrus – TEX (63.8 Runs Created, 26.0 Runs Saved = 89.8 Total Runs Production)

Has NO power, but slaps a few singles, draws some walks, and can scoot a little around the bases.  Oh – and he’s probably the best glove in the AL.  Robbed of the gold glove again, but will start winning it probably this year.  The voters are weird about these things…

Alex Gonzalez – TOR/ATL (77.3 Runs Created, -0.4 Runs Saved = 76.9 Total Runs Production)

The wind was blowing out, huh?  Had a great first half, which allowed Toronto to trade him while his stock was up to Atlanta for Escobar.  I always liked him when he was a Marlin – did a lot of good things.  Still can play enough, but isn’t a long term solution for anyone anymore and he can’t seem to stay somewhere longer than a year…

Yunel Escobar – ATL/TOR (53.5 Runs Created, 18.3 Runs Saved = 71.8 Total Runs Production)

Struggled mightily last year with Atlanta, came to Toronto and started to show signs of life.  I think he’ll rebound in 2011 and is going to be worth a late round draft pick in your fantasy leagues.

Jhonny Peralta – CLE/DET (69.7 Runs Created, 2.1 Runs Saved = 71.8 Total Runs Production)

Moved to third base in Cleveland, then brought to Detroit in hopes that he could solve the shortstop problem and keep Detroit in contention down the stretch.  He’s really not a very good defensive shortstop (he was a pretty good third baseman, though), but there are plenty of guys who are worse than him still getting chances to play.  And Peralta can put a few runs on the board, too.

Yuniesky Betancourt – KC (65.3 Runs Created, 5.3 Runs Created = 70.6 Total Runs Production)

He actually had a pretty good season on the surface…  Some power, he cut down the strikeouts, and fielded his position pretty well.  I can’t tell if anyone thinks he’s a championship type player, but he isn’t hurting you either.

Reid Brignac – TB (40.3 Runs Created, 14.3 Runs Saved = 54.6 Total Runs Production)

Hits like Ben Zobrist and played well enough in the field to allow Jason Bartlett to hit the road in 2011.  The Rays will be just fine.

Derek Jeter – NYY (80.0 Runs Created, -27.4 Runs Saved = 52.6 Total Runs Production)

Was the top shortstop last year because his offense made up for his total lack of defensive range.  He got a lot of at bats at the top of the Yankee order but was a league average hitter – which knocked him well down the ladder in 2010.  He can bounce back a little offensively, but he may not have a position with this team – except as captain.  The Yankees were in a tough position in dealing with Jeter, who really is a superstar as a personality, but no longer as a player.  Realistically, he only has a couple of years left unless he bounces back a lot in 2011.

Erick Aybar – LAA (62.0 Runs Created, -9.7 Runs Created = 52.3 Total Runs Production)

Not his best season –  has little power, doesn’t get on base or slap a bunch of singles, and didn’t play his best shortstop last year.  Can do better, and will have to if the Angels want to win the division again.

Ramon Santiago – DET (36.0 Runs Created, 11.6 Runs Saved = 47.6 Total Runs Production)

Four players got time here, including Adam Everett (some glove, no bat at all) and Danny Worth (not yet ready for the majors).  Santiago was nearly effective in the role last year, but it was a fluke and he really isn’t the answer.

Jason Bartlett – TB (61.6 Runs Created, -16.4 Runs Saved = 45.2 Total Runs Production)

No longer the rangy shortstop of two or three years ago, still contributes with the bat even when his average slips to .250.  Hits a few doubles, gets on base, and can still run smartly around the paths.

Marco Scutaro – BOS (79.9 Runs Created, -35.1 Runs Saved = 44.8 Total Runs Production)

That didn’t work out, did it…  Scutaro wasn’t blessed with great range when he was younger, and after signing the big deal in Boston, he really fell off the map defensively.  Offensively, he’s still pretty good, with a decent eye and a bit of power.  But if you are looking for reasons that the Boston pitching struggled in 2010 it starts right here.

J.J. Hardy – MIN (44.3 Runs Created, 0.2 Runs Saved = 44.5 Total Runs Production)

Only played 101 games, but was reasonably productive when he played.  Not appreciably different from Betancourt – just less playing time.  Alexi Casilla is currently listed as the new starter – a slap hitter with some range, but to be honest – might be a step down from Hardy.

Josh Wilson – SEA (33.5 Runs Created, 8.9 Runs Created = 42.4 Total Runs Production)

Does a good Jack Wilson impersonation – a bit less offense and a bit less defense (a little less range, a bit more error prone), but also a bit younger.  Not the answer without a serious upgrade in his output, which isn’t likely, and will have to be replaced if Seattle is going to compete.

Asdrubal Cabrera – CLE (45.6 Runs Created, -9.5 Runs Saved = 36.1 Total Runs Production)

Not a championship level player at this level – unlike his solid 2009.  In fact, Jason Donald made more plays per nine (though he committed a few more errors), and is a bit stronger offensively.  (I discuss Donald with the second basemen…)  Cabrera had a tolerable batting average, but – again – if you aren’t going to contribute more than 60 runs with the bat, your glove has to be solid – and Cabrera’s has not consistently been above average.

Jack Wilson – SEA (19.4 Runs Created, 12.9 Runs Saved = 32.3 Total Runs Production)

His best days are behind him; he can’t hit as well, can’t stay healthy, but he still does play a mean shortstop.

Cesar Izturis – BAL (35.0 Runs Created, -9.1 Runs Saved = 25.9 Total Runs Production)

If you’re going to hit like Mark Belanger, you had better field like him, too.  Izturis disappointed, putting up just 2.5 runs per 27 outs thanks to a .230 batting average and just 15 extra base hits in 150 games.  Now a utility player, with J.J. Hardy moving in to play short.

2010 AL Second Basemen

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Robinson Cano – NYY (118.3 Runs Created, 33.3 Runs Saved = 151.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Orlando Hudson is a very good second baseman.  Robinson Cano was nearly TWICE as productive as Hudson.  Power, range, doesn’t swing at bad pitches…  My pick for AL MVP, and he might get better.  Just entering his prime…

Orlando Hudson – MIN (65.9 Runs Created, 16.3 Runs Saved = 82.2 Total Runs Productivity)

Did exactly what you would expect – hits well and can bat first or second in the lineup (you’d rather have him hit second), fields the position as well as you could hope.  Not an all-star, but right below that line – and the kind of guy who can help you win championships.

Howie Kendrick – LAA (87.7 Runs Created, -10.4 Runs Saved = 77.3 Total Runs Productivity)

A very useful player who played every day, produced enough with the bat (5.1 runs per 27 outs), but needs a little work with the glove.  He’s NOT a top of the order hitter so long as his OBA is .316, but you could bat him from the seventh to the ninth spot and not do too badly with him.

Mike Aviles – KC (61.4 Runs Created, 15.8 Runs Saved = 77.2 Total Runs Productivity)

Came back from a disappointing 2009 to look like his superstar self from 2008.  Batted for average and mid-range power, fields his position extremely well, and remains one of the best players on the Royals.  Needs to stay healthy – if he does, the Royals have a top flight #2 hitter.

Ian Kinsler – TEX (62.4 Runs Created, 8.0 Runs Saved = 70.4 Total Runs Productivity)

The new Mark Ellis.  Hits, has power, gets on base, can run, fields the position really well, can’t stay in the lineup.

Mark Ellis – OAK (62.8 Runs Created, 3.5 Runs Saved = 66.3 Total Runs Productivity)

Turns 34 in June, Mark Ellis’s body may not help him make it to 2014.  Still a decent enough hitter, but his power is leaving him, and his range – once solid – is now a smidge above average.  The A’s are getting better and you’d like to see Ellis get one more shot at the post season.

Sean Rodriguez – TB (49.2 Runs Created, 15.2 Runs Saved = 64.4 Total Runs Productivity)

The kid came up, played all over the field as Ben Zobrist had before him, and proved himself to be a very valuable player.  Sean Rodriguez settled in at second base and was rock solid there, and with his decent power earned a chance to be the starter for all of 2011.  I like him.

Dustin Pedroia – BOS (55.4 Runs Created, -0.8 Runs Saved = 54.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Missed half the season after fouling a ball off his left foot and breaking it, requiring surgery.  On pace for 25 homers and 50 doubles, despite a brutal May, Pedroia is one of the best offensive forces in the league.  Bill Hall played a lot of second base after Pedroia went down, and not badly.  However, even with Hall’s power, he’s not the run producer that Pedroia is.  Jed Lowrie is a better fielder, but he can’t hit like DP either.  In the years Dustin plays 130+ games, the Sox make the playoffs – so you know what Boston is rooting for…

Reid Brignac – TB (40.3 Runs Created, 14.3 Runs Saved = 54.6 Total Runs Productivity)

A very good season defensively and a pretty good season offensively, he earned a chance to be the regular shortstop and allowed the Rays to trade a declining Jason Bartlett.  With Evan Longoria and Rodriguez throwing to a dependable first baseman, this could be the best defensive infield in baseball for 2011.

Gordon Beckham – CHI (51.0 Runs Created, 8.4 Runs Saved = 59.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Offensively, Beckham was off, barely creating four runs per 27 outs.  Defensively, having switched over from third base, he was fantastic.  For Beckham to really help the White Sox, he needs to create 75 or more runs, the way he seemed to be capable of in 2009.  Otherwise, he’s rather ordinary.  He is, however, better than Chris Getz.

Chone Figgins – SEA (78.4 Runs Created, -33.3 Runs Saved = 45.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Never really looked comfortable with the switch to second after spending much of the last few years at third base, and his batting stats predictably fell off after his remarkable 2009 season.  I think he’ll be better in 2011, but still isn’t one of the five best second base options in the AL.

Aaron Hill – TOR (55.2 Runs Created, -14.5 Runs Saved = 40.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Chone Figgins without the position change.  Fell to earth, crashed really, after an amazing 2009, and brought his struggles to the field with him.  I think he’ll bounce back, but looking at his baseball card, you’ll always do a double take comparing the two seasons.

Carlos Guillen – DET (35.3 Runs Created, 4.3 Runs Saved = 39.6 Total Runs Productivity)

A stop gap option after Scott Sizemore skidded to Toledo, at least until his body broke down, Guillen used to be a good shortstop, a good left fielder, and could be a good second baseman.  On the other hand, he’s 35 and is really best suited to be a DH – and Detroit has DH options.  So, Guillen – assuming he has a good chiropractor and trainer – could be a utility guy, getting 450 productive at bats all over the field.  In the last year of his contract, so let’s see if he can keep it together and help the Tigers…

Jayson Nix – CLE (35.0 Runs Created, 1.8 Runs Saved = 36.8 Total Runs Productivity)

He could be a new Dan Uggla if the Indians wanted to go that way – he hits for power, doesn’t do badly at the position, and I’d let him play there if they found a good option at third base.

Will Rhymes – DET (28.0 Runs Created, 6.2 Runs Saved = 34.2 Total Runs Productivity)

The best of the Tigers three second baseman, Rhymes hit .304, had an acceptable slugging and fielding percentage, and played the position well – all the things Detroit thought that Scott Sizemore could do.  Should have first dibs at the position in 2011 – though he’s a bit old for a rookie, turning 28 on April Fool’s Day.

Luis Valbuena – CLE (20.2 Runs Created, 6.5 Runs Saved = 26.7 Total Runs Productivity)

A disappointing season with the bat, batting under the Mendoza line.  I think he’ll be a bit better, but he’ll never be much of a run producer, limiting him to a career as a utility infielder.

Julio Lugo – BAL (20.0 Runs Created, 5.6 Runs Saved = 25.6 Total Runs Productivity)

He’s still around, can help by playing four positions, but can’t hit enough to be more than a good utility guy.  Might have one more year left, but I wouldn’t bet on 2012.

Jason Donald – CLE (36.7 Runs Created, -11.9 Runs Saved = 24.8 Total Runs Productivity)

If he had a more discerning eye, he could be the new Brian Roberts.  Offensively, Donald doesn’t hurt you, but he didn’t show the type of range needed at either second or short.  Both could improve, however, and the Indians would be finding a way to move the team in the right direction.  I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get a better chance in 2011.  Working against him, he’s rather old for a rookie and will turn 27 when the season is over.

Brian Roberts – BAL (32.6 Runs Created, -17.1 Runs Saved = 15.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Injured at the beginning of the season, then perpetually on the trading block.  I know he’s not a very good defensive player, but how many really good leadoff hitters are out there?  I’d make him the new Paul Molitor.  If he can stay healthy, and at 33 his back is going to bother him from time to time, he’s got a shot at 100 runs scored – and that’s a valuable commodity.

Mark Grudzielanek – CLE (10.5 Runs Created, 3.3 Runs Saved = 13.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Had 30 hits and all were singles.  At 40, not sure if he’ll be back, but he can still play second base a little bit.  He MIGHT be your favorite team’s next manager one day.

Chris Getz – KC (21.1 Runs Created, -8.4 Runs Saved = 12.7 Total Runs Productivity)

An alleged glove man who hasn’t shown that at the major league level, and he can’t hit.  Will be a short term utility guy, but you’d rather have someone who does SOMETHING.  Maybe someone who plays four positions well defensively (Alfredo Amezaga), or someone who can play the positions poorly, but hits enough to let it slide from time to time and can pinch hit (Jeff Treadway).  Getz can’t do either.

Scott Sizemore – DET (14.4 Runs Created, -10.9 Runs Saved = 3.5 Total Runs Productivity)

This wasn’t what Detroit had in mind – the man chosen to replace Placido Polanco didn’t hit and didn’t field as well as had been hoped and wound up back in Toledo for 2010.  Compared to Rhymes, he has always been a bit better hitter with a better eye, comparable speed, and a bit more power. He’s also 26.  However, Rhymes did the job.  Sizemore will likely get another chance, but at this point, he can’t afford to blow it.

2010 AL Gold Glove and Dirty Brick Award Winners

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My fielding ranking system is a method that looks at the number of plays made per 800 balls in play.  In effect, if someone makes one play more than another person at the same position, he reduces the batting average of the hitter by a point.  The best fielders occasionally make a run at 15 plays per 800 balls in play more than average, the worst can go 15 in the other direction.  Then, I convert those plays made into runs saved (or not saved, if the number is negative) based on the types of hits allowed on balls hit toward that fielder.  I also convert double plays and errors into runs based on Pete Palmer formulas found in the old Total Baseball encyclopedias.

Does it work?  Actually – yes.  It passes the eye ball test (Elvis Andrus, when you watch him, looks like an impressive fielder), and the system is comparable to other methodologies.  I’ve used this for about ten years, when I was first trying to rate fielders to make player cards for the old Superstar Baseball board game.

I try to remove biases for groundball/flyball tendencies, and for lefty/righty balls in play.  If there is one position where I am always concerned, it’s first base because much of that is based on the rest of the infield – so I essentially remove infield assists from the first baseman’s putout total.  Even with that, there is usually a greater range between the best and worst fielders.  However, after doing this for years, I have reached the conclusion that the reason for this has more to do with the fact that the worst fielders are, indeed, the least mobile athletes on the field and if you get someone at first base who is young and still fleet of foot, that person is going to make GOBS more plays than a big lumbering first baseman whose first move is to start heading to first to catch a throw on almost any ball hit to his right.

Mighty Casey generally doesn’t rank pitchers individually, but the best team in this regard was probably Cleveland.  Cleveland pitchers had a positive ratio of double plays to errors (19/13, where the league pitchers participated in 180 DPs and made 181 errors) and also handled about 5 chances more than the average team per 800 balls in play.  The worst was easily Detroit (17 DPs, 18 errors, 6.4 plays below average per 800 balls in play).

I also rank catchers differently, choosing to score them as a team.  There are seven categories for which a team of catchers could be graded:  ERA, Winning Percentage, SB%, Fielding Percentage on plays not including strikeouts, Mistakes per Game (passed balls, errors), Plays Made per Game (or Mobility), Other Assists per Game (not including Caught Stealing).  The catchers get a point for each category in which they are above the league average, and lose a point if below league average.  The highest score, theoretically, is seven and the lowest would be -7.  Nobody was that good, nor that bad.

Catcher:

Toronto had the best rankings, being above average in six categories and dead even on Mobility.  John Buck did the yeoman’s share of the work, but his backup Jose Molina was also exceptional against the run, tossing out 15 of 34 runners.  That being said, I don’t think that John Buck is the best catcher in the AL, it’s Joe Mauer.  But the rankings say that Toronto’s catchers held their own collectively.

Behind Toronto, the White Sox scored at positive four, failing only in mobility categories, and then a tie between Boston, Detroit, and Minnesota at positive three.

The worst catching was a toss up between three teams that all scored at -3: Seattle, Los Angeles, and Kansas City.

First Base:

For the first time in several years, the stats matched the reputation.  Mark Teixeira earns the nod, saving his team nearly 32 runs with his range and ability to avoid errors and turn double plays.  I was surprised at how good Ty Wigginton was, showing even better range, but then again – he’s an infielder moving over to first – and frequently those guys are used to straying as far as possible to get grounders where many first basemen will give up on balls to the right and let the second sacker get them while moving to first base.

I’m not totally certain that Teixeira would have won the award had Kendry Morales not gotten hurt.  Morales, in just 51 games, had a slightly higher range and was on pace to save just as many runs as Big Tex.  Two others who didn’t get 1000 innings at the position also scored well here – Kevin Youkilis and rookie Justin Smoak.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Mark Teixeira    1291.2    10.2    31.7
Ty Wigginton    787    12.5    18.7
Justin Smoak    807.2    10.3    17.5

The Dirty Brick goes to Cleveland’s Matt LaPorta, whose poor range didn’t help a season where his bat wasn’t very strong – negating half of the runs he created offensively.  The other two shouldn’t be a surprise.  Miguel Cabrera is looking less and less lean, and Mike Napoli is a catcher playing first.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Matt LaPorta    791.1    -13.5    -25.0
Miguel Cabrera    1285.1    -5.6    -19.9
Mike Napoli    586.1    -12.7    -19.2

Dishonorable mentions go out to Daric Barton, Justin Morneau (on pace to match LaPorta, but he missed half the season), and Paul Konerko…

Second Base:

Robinson Cano had an amazing year with the bat, and was equally strong with the glove.  His range factor was nearly 11 plays per 800 balls in play more than average, and he made just 3 errors while turning 114 double plays.  As such, he not only saved his team 26 runs just by eliminating hits, but he took more than seven more runs off the board by avoiding errors and helping with the DP – the most at his position by far.  Orlando Hudson provided value for Minnesota, and KC’s Mike Aviles returned and made a positive contribution with the bat and glove, too.  Regular leaders here, Ian Kinsler and Mark Ellis, fell back as both missed about 500 innings at the position due to injuries.  Honorable mention to Sean Rodriguez at Tampa who nearly made the list in just a half season of innings, and to Gordon Beckham who switched over from third and was solid for the White Sox.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Robinson Cano    1393.1    10.9    33.3
Orlando Hudson    1067    7.4    16.3
Mike Aviles    765.2    14.8    15.8

The Dirty Brick goes to a position switch as well – Seattle’s Chone Figgins.  He was a decided bust at second base, making 19 errors and making an adjusted 4.11 plays per nine – 11.9 plays fewer per 800 balls in play than the average second baseman.  Seattle signed him as a third baseman, switched him over to let Jose Lopez play third.  Thankfully, Lopez was fantastic over there – else it would have been a total loss…  Brian Roberts, a regular to the brick list, was abhorrant in a shade under 500 innings, 20 plays worse than the average second sacker per 800 balls in play, and Aaron Hill took his struggles at the plate with him to the field.  Dishonorable mentions to supposed glove man Chris Getz (-7 runs) and rookie Scott Sizemore (-11 runs in must 314 innings).  So much for replacing Placido Polanco…

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Chone Figgins    1417    -11.9    -33.3
Brian Roberts    498.1    -19.5    -17.1
Aaron Hill    1188    -6.1    -14.5

Third Base:

As poorly as Chone Figgins played second base for Seattle, converted third baseman Jose Lopez was a decided success.  His range was superior, and he didn’t disappoint in terms of errors or double plays.  Evan Longoria remained in the 30 runs saved range – a remarkable player, really – and Adrian Beltre continued to field his position remarkably well.  An honorable mention goes to the reluctantly converted Miguel Tejada, who had greater range than even Longoria, but played just 808 innings before being shipped out.  Nick Punto played an out shy of 345 innings there without making an error…

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Jose Lopez    1252.2    13.3    36.9
Evan Longoria    1330.2    8.7    31.1
Adrian Beltre    1342.2    6.6    19.0

The dirty brick goes to a part-timer, Royals infielder Wilson Betemit, who must have had ball repellant on him, making barely 2.2 plays per nine and having a range about 17 plays worse than the average player per 800 balls in play.  Another halftimer, Omar Vizquel got close to 600 unnecessary innings at third base for the White Sox – he’s an ancient shortstop who hadn’t played there for his entire career.  You want to know why the White Sox lost the division – look right here.  Of the regulars, Michael Young was, again, a lousy third baseman – but he did make improvement over last year.  No wonder he volunteered to be a DH.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Wilson Betemit    455.1    -16.9    -18.4
Omar Vizquel    582.1    -19.4    -17.4
Michael Young    1370.1    -3.3    -10.3

Shortstop:

Nobody was more surprised to see this than I, but Alexei Ramirez had a remarkable year at shortstop, showing great range – as good as he ever played.  He was one assist shy of 500 – a great season by any measurement.  Cliff Pennington helped out the young A’s staff by making his share of plays, and Elvis Andrus remained among the best fielders of his time.  Seattle’s Jack and Josh Wilson, if combined, saved Seattle more than 20 runs.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Alexei Ramirez    1376.2    12.8    32.1
Cliff Pennington   1304.2    12.0    26.9
Elvis Andrus    1291.1    10.3    26.0

At least the reigning gold glove winner didn’t finish last, but he did have the worst range amongst the regulars.  This year, Marco Scutaro’s 18 errors and only contributing to 57 double plays made up for making slightly more plays than Derek Jeter, who had just 6 errors and 94 double plays.  The 11 run swing gave the brick to Scutaro, who killed the Red Sox infield.  He’ll need to be replaced soon if the Sox want to be competitive.  Third place went to Jason Bartlett who no longer looks like the slick fielding shortstop he was before all the ankle injuries in 2009.  Thankfully for the Rays, they have other options for 2011.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Marco Scutaro    1166    -13.2    -32.0
Derek Jeter    1303.2    -15.0    -27.4
Jason Bartlett    1104    -8.9    -16.4

Left Field:

A centerfielder playing left who also had his best offensive season heading into free agency, the gold glove goes to the perennially amazing Carl Crawford.  Crawford was the only left fielder to save his team more than 10 runs, but only because the next closest guys played too few innings to save enough runs.  Only three left fielders played 1000 innings there in 2010.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Carl Crawford    1260.1    4.2    13.1
Michael Saunders   647.2    6.3    9.6
Alex Gordon    486.1    7.6    9.0

One of those three was Dirty Brick winner Delmon Young, who abused left field until he cost the Twins 25 runs out there.  At least he found his bat last year…  Fred Lewis played a disinterested left field for Toronto, and Daniel Nava was the Boston representative of the list of bad outfielders who played between 200 and 500 innings in the AL.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Delmon Young    1277.2    -8.5    -25.0
Fred Lewis    726.1    -7.8    -13.2
Daniel Nava    380    -12.9    -10.4

Center Field:

The Angels are rightfully excited about the defensive capabilities of their new centerfielder, Peter Bourjos.  The man can fly – reminding you of a young Gary Pettis.  He can throw, too – ten assists in what amounts to a third of a season in the field.  This allows Los Angeles to move Torii Hunter, who is now a slightly below average centerfielder to right (where he was really good), and makes room for another below average centerfielder, Vernon Wells, to move to left.  As it was, there isn’t a whole lot of difference amongst the starting centerfielders, except for Bourjos, in terms of overall range.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Peter Bourjos    449.2    12.0    12.4
Adam Jones    1298.1    2.9    7.9
Alex Rios    1246.2    2.8    7.1

The Dirty Brick goes to a guy whose body and game are falling apart, and that’s Grady Sizemore.  One hopes he can heal and start to put his career back in the right direction, but it’s probably going to have to be at a different position.  Sadly, his replacement (Brantley) doesn’t look much better, and among those who played at least 1000 innings, Vernon Wells, who was healthier than in recent seasons, is still the worst of the lot (costing his team about 7.5 runs).  Thankfully, he’s done as a centerfielder.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Grady Sizemore    269.2    -17.5    -11.2
Michael Brantley562.2    -6.9    -9.4
Gregor Blanco    347    -11.2    -8.4

Right Field:

For the second year in a row, Nelson Cruz was a remarkable outfielder, though he threw hardly anybody out from right.  I was surprised to see how well Nick Swisher did, but that could be because opponents may allow more lefties to bat in the new Yankee Stadium.  Honorable mention to Ben Zobrist, who has to play everywhere but looked solid enough in right.  I wonder if there isn’t some form of statistical bias in Texas, though, as even Vlad Guerrero showed up as above average in his 118.2 innings there.  Not WAY above average, but slightly.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Nelson Cruz    799.1    15.2    25.9
Nick Swisher    1102    6.1    14.5
Jason Repko    226    16.4    9.3

The Dirty Brick goes to the surprise hammer of the league – Jose Bautista, followed by a bunch of guys who are either ill-suited for the outfield, aging, our out of position (David DeJesus).  The worst right fielder who played at least 1000 innings was Shin-Soo Choo, who barely edged out the immobile Nick Markakis and the aging J.D. Drew, and were all between -7.02 and -7.17 runs in the wrong direction.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Jose Bautista    982.2    -6.8    -14.6
Carlos Quentin    897    -5.3    -13.6
Bobby Abreu    805.2    -3.4    -7.9

2010 Season Forecast: Tampa Rays

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Last Five Seasons:

2009: 84 – 78 (3rd AL East)
2008: 97 – 65
2007: 66 – 96
2006: 61 – 101
2005: 67 – 95

Runs Scored: 803 (5th AL)
Runs Allowed: 754 (7th AL)

Season Recap:

Optimism reigned supreme on the heels of an amazing run into to the World Series.  I warned you, however, that while the team looked good there were reasons to suspect that the Rays might under-perform.  The Rays were good, but couldn’t catch any breaks on the road and, as such, couldn’t keep up with the Yankees or Red Sox when the race got going.

The Rays were never really out of it despite a 9 – 14 April, and after a fantastic June (19 – 7) were in the thick of the race.  Unfortunately, the Yankees blew the doors open in July and August while the Rays suddenly got flat.  Scott Kazmir, unhealthy and unproductive was sent to Anaheim.  Carlos Pena, leading the AL in homers at the time, broke his wrist.  Troy Percival was injured and eventually hung up the spikes.  When September came calling, the Rays were far enough out to throw in the towel – and they did, fading from 13 over .500 to just six over at the end.

Pitching:

In 2008, backed by a sure-handed and mobile defense, the pitching over delivered.  In 2009, the defense slipped and a few holes were discovered in the rotation.  Matt Garza became the ace and James Shields – usually dependable – gave up 239 hits in 220 innings, 29 of them homers.  Scott Kazmir made just 20 starts and finished with an ERA just shy of 6.00…  Andy Sonnestine, as warned, was eminently hittable, finishing with a 6.77 ERA and earning the Anti-Cy – the pitcher costing his team the most runs with his below average pitching.

Two good things came out of the experimenting required by Joe Maddon.  Rookie David Price showed flashes, winning 10 games, and Jeff Niemann was even better, making 30 starts, winning 13 games, and showing good control and command.

In the bullpen, Troy Percival made just 14 appearances, eventually having to be replaced by J.P. Howell at the back end of the bullpen.  However, Maddon used a committee as required, as Randy Choate (5), Grant Balfour (4), Joe Nelson (3), and four others wound up with saves.

Looking ahead, the Rays should have a decent enough rotation.  Shields should bounce back some, Garza is back, Niemann returns, Price will get 30+ starts, and rookie Wade Davis should pick up 20 – 25 starts.  If Davis is even 10 runs below average, he’s saving the team 25 runs over last season.  15 more starts of David Price will be worth another 30 runs.  I like the rotation to be at least 50 runs better than in 2009.

The bullpen adds closer Rafael Soriano from Atlanta and returns the core of what has been a very dependable bullpen – Howell, Choate, Balfour, and Dan Wheeler.  I like the bullpen to be at least 15 runs better than in 2009 as well.

Catching:

Dioner Navarro is back – hopefully lighter than last year, as his bat slipped mightily in 2009.  He’s essentially a league average backstop – right on the average against the run, has a decent reputation with handling the pitchers but isn’t as mobile as you would like.  Kelly Shoppach was signed from Cleveland to back up Navarro – and he is good enough to take up the slack if Navarro slips some more.

Infield:

In 2008, the infield defense was a big reason that the Rays won the AL East.  However, Carlos Pena showed signed that he might not be as mobile as he had been as a gold glove caliber first baseman.  Additionally, his batting average fell to .227, though he did continue to get on base and knock out homers.  Pena has had an up and down career and, nearing 32, his prime seasons are nearly over.

Akinori Iwamura went down to a horrible knee injury, but returns to play for Pittsburgh.  The reason Iwamura was allowed to move was the remarkable season of Ben Zobrist, who fielded his position very well and broke out with 27 homers and a .407 OBP.

Jason Bartlett hit better than expected – finishing at .320 with a .490 slugging percentage – but ankle injuries affected his range and he went from someone worth of a gold glove to someone challenging Derek Jeter for the worst range at short.  One hopes he finds his old mobility, but if he produces 103 runs of offense, nobody will notice.

Evan Longoria remains the best third baseman in baseball – he looks like the new Mike Schmidt.  A 40 homer season wouldn’t be out of the question, as he finished with 33 homers in 2009 and had 44 doubles, too.

Backing this unit up is Willie Aybar, who can play third and first and hit well enough.  Reid Brignac is a prospect who appears to have hitting skills but hasn’t shown range in the field.

Outfield:

Carl Crawford returns in left field, as good a fielder as there is out in left and a very productive hitter.  Crawford is known for his 60 stolen bases, but he added 51 extra base hits while hitting .305.

B.J. Upton will be the wild card of 2010.  Battling shoulder and leg injuries, Upton’s range numbers in the outfield were problematic and he finished at .241 and didn’t slug .400.  For a while, Upton was at the top of the lineup and getting in the way.  If he bounces back and shows the form he displayed in the 2008 World Series, the Rays will get 30 extra runs of offense and 20 extra runs of defense.  If not, the Rays may not be able to compete.

Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross shared right field (with Ben Zobrist, until he moved to second base).  Both are acceptable in the field, but don’t add much to the offense.  Matt Joyce, formerly of Detroit, may get the nod in 2010.  He’s got young legs and potential at the plate – 30 homer power though he might not make it if he doesn’t curb the strikeouts.  Desmond Jennings, a prospect at Durham, might sneak in and take over as well.

Backing these guys up are Zobrist and Aybar, as well as DH (and disappointment) Pat Burrell.  Burrell’s 14 – 64 – .221 season meant that the Rays will give former Ranger Hank Blalock a shot at the DH role in 2010.

Prospects:

Looking at AAA Durham, you see people who have already gotten a shot…  Justin Ruggiano has some power and speed but is a bit old as a prospect.  Reid Brignac and Matt Joyce are already Rays.  Among the pitchers, Wade Davis is going to make the roster after going 10 – 8 for the Bulls with a 3.40 ERA and a 140/60 K/BB ratio in 158.2 innings.  Jeremy Hellickson will likely start at Durham in 2010, but was 6 – 1 in nine starts at the end of the season last year with 70 Ks in 57.1 innings.  Hellickson is the ace in waiting for now.

Hellickson had 11 starts for AA Montgomery, winning three of four decisions with 62 Ks, 14 BBs, and only 41 hits allowed in 56.2 innings.  Only reliever Paul Phillips looked ready for AAA.  Aneury Rodriguez is young (22) and pitched okay for the Biscuits but could stand to improve his control.  The best hitter in AA was Desmond Jennings, who finished at .316 with 37 steals (caught just five times), earning a nod to Durham where he hit .325 there with 15 more steals.  Jennings could take over in centerfield if Upton gets hurt.

A+ Charlotte has a few pitchers to watch in AA next year to see if they can continue to command the strike zone in Jeremy Hall, Alexander Cobb, and Darin Downs.  All three had good ERAs, good strikeout and walk numbers, and winning records.

Bowling Green (A) featured Matt Moore, a live-armed kid who fanned 176 but walked 70 in 123 innings.  Josh Satow was the closer, getting 20 saves, strikeing out 65 and walking just 15 in 63 innings.  Andy Finch and I saw Tim Beckham and Kyeong Kang when touring the midwest last summer.  Beckham has the air of stardom and is still a teen.  Kang looks to have a little power, hit .307 and had a .390 OBP.

The Rays have a young roster, and they have PROSPECTS.

Outlook:

I like the Rays to be very competitive.  Unlike 2009, where I thought the team might take a step back from the World Series peak, I see reasons for optimism.  I think the starters, absent Sonnestine and Kazmir’s poor performances, will show improvement.  I like B.J. Upton’s chances of having a breakout season.  And, I’m optimistic that the Rays can close games better than in 2009.  Working against that is the fact that I think Zobrist may slip, Pena might age, and Bartlett may have peaked as a hitter.

I think the Rays will score a few more runs – maybe 810 – but allow a lot less, possibly as few as 680 runs.  If so, the Rays will win 95 games.  Working against this is the strength of the division, which includes what should be an improving Baltimore club.  So, despite what the system tells me, my hunch is that they might fall a few wins short of 95, and it might mean barely missing the playoffs.  Still, the system says 95 and that’s what I am putting on my board.

Top AL Shortstops in 2009

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Derek Jeter (NYY):  Dog his defense, but the guy produces runs.  Jeter gets on base, occasionally swats for power, runs the bases well, and despite his well below average range, ranks as the best shorstop in the AL.  And he’s the oldest guy at the position.  Enjoy it while it lasts.  (128.9 Runs Produced, -14.2 Runs Saved = 114.67 Total Run Production)

Jason Bartlett (TB):  His ankle cut into his defensive range – where in 2008 he was WELL above average, he was slightly below average in 2009.  On the other hand, he hit .320 and smacked 14 homers and looked like a poor man’s Derek Jeter.  A very valuable player.  (102.6 Runs Created, -8.7 Runs Saved = 94.00 Total Run Production)

Elvis Andrus (TEX):  As a rookie, he was tolerable offensively – just six homers, a .267 bat, and not too many walks.  He did help by stealing bases – 33 of them.  But Andrus was the best infield glove imaginable.  If he can show growth as a hitter and keep his enormous advantage defensively, we’re talking about a young Omar Vizquel here.  Jeter was worth double the offense, but Andrus made up nearly 45 runs with the glove.  (62.6 Runs Created, 30.8 Runs Saved = 93.38 Total Run Production)

Marco Scutaro (TOR):  Had a season that was just out of whack with his career and turned it into a nice paycheck from Boston.  The big improvement was plate discipline, but he also added power (12 more doubles, 5 more homers) and ran more often.  He’s better than what Boston had the last couple of years, but I won’t be surprised if he falls back to the middle of the pack in 2010.  (96.0 Runs Created, -6.5 Runs Saved = 89.54 Total Run Production)

The guy slated to take Scutaro’s slot is Alex Gonzalez – who has lost a step, doesn’t get on base, barely hits .250 with middling power, and won’t be here when the season is over, I bet.  John McDonald, a good glove and three years older than A-Gone, will back him up.  If Tyler Pastornicky or Ryan Goins are legitimate prospects, there is nothing in their path to get to the majors…

Erick Aybar (LAA):  Good batting average and a few doubles and a plus fielder.  Would like a little more patience at the plate, but you can live with the total package at this level.  Does he have another notch to climb?  (77.9 Runs Created, 11.1 Runs Saved = 88.94 Total Run Production)

Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE):  A slight shade better offensively than Aybar – but essentially the same guy.  But, he’s not in Aybar’s league as a fielder (few are).  Like Aybar, is still young enough to take a step forward.  (94.0 Runs Created, -5.5 Runs Saved, 88.55 Total Run Production)

Orlando Cabrera (OAK/MIN):  Played well enough in Oakland – then moved to Minnesota to finish the season and fill a void there.  Now with Cincinnati – Cabrera is a valuable commodity.  He’s not the great hitter anymore, but he still can field well enough.  He’s NOT a franchise changer, but he still has skills.  J.J. Hardy has the job now, and he won’t be this good. (83.1 Runs Created, 4.4 Runs Saved, 87.50 Total Run Production)

Adam Kennedy would be listed here…  He’s not a shortstop but played a lot of innings all over the infield for Oakland…

Alexei Ramirez (CWS):  He’s got some pop in the bat, and his glove isn’t horrible but not top notch.  The Sox don’t have a better option at this point, but Ramirez could easily play a few more games and fill out his stats.  For example – he had 15 homers, but just 14 doubles…  14/19 as a basestealer, too.  He could sneak up the list in 2010.  (71.7 Runs Created, -6 Runs Saved = 65.66 Total Run Production)

Jack Wilson (SEA):  Came over from Pittsburgh – a decent glove who occasionally contributes with the bat.  If he’s healthy, he’ll be better than Betancourt – but that’s not saying much these days.  (44.2 Runs Created, 13.2 Runs Saved = 57.6 Total Run Production)

Cesar Izturis (BAL):  Great glove, no hit guy in the tradition of Mark Belanger.  (38.6 Runs Created, 15.7 Runs Saved = 54.25 Total Run Production)

Yuniesky Betancourt (KC):  Seattle discarded Betancourt after a rather disinterested start; the Royals got a bit more of the same.  (45.4 Runs Created, 3.17 Runs Saved = 48.57 Total Run Production

Cliff Pennington (OAK):  Took over when Cabrera was moved out, Pennington hit better and held his own as a fielder.  I think he could hold the job regularly and contribute to wins for the A’s, but I can’t tell if Oakland agrees with me.  He’s better than Betancourt – just didn’t play enough to rate higher.  (31.5 Runs Created, 5.5 Runs Saved = 36.96 Total Run Production)

Ramon Santiago or Adam Everett (DET):  Combined, weren’t worth 60 runs.  Everett lost his range and his bat.  Santiago is a step ahead of Everett at this point.  If this is Detroit’s idea of being competitive for 2010, I don’t see it.  A full season of Santiago wouldn’t be as good as Alexei Ramirez production…  (It’s better than a full year of Adam Everett, but that’s not saying much.)

Nick Green (BOS):  The guy with the most innings and the highest rating (a lot of ugly numbers) – the job now belongs to Marco Scutaro.

2009 AL Gold Glove and Brick Glove Winners

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Last week, I gave you the NL Gold Glove and Brick Glove winners and losers…  It’s time to do the same for their brethren in the AL.  As a reminder, here’s how I do it:

1) Look at the number of plays made per every 800 balls in play, because it provides a level playing field and because, in effect, one extra play made is essentially removing one point of batting average from each hitter.

2) Make modifications for things like flyballs and ground balls allowed by pitching staffs.

3) Make modifications to middle infielders based on double plays.

4) Remove infield assists from first basemen’s putout numbers.

5) Convert plays made/not made into runs saved/lost based on values for each hit as determined by Pete Palmer – with hits assigned by position.

6) Determine additional benefits for runs saved based on double plays and errors.

7) Sort.

For the lists below, you’ll see two numbers for each player.  Positive numbers are always better.  The first number tells you how many plays he makes per 800 balls in play more or less than the average guy.  Nelson Cruz made 14 plays every 800 balls in play more than the average right fielder.  That’s a lot.  Derek Jeter’s first number is about -9, which means he makes nine plays less than the average shortstop per 800 balls in play.  The second number tells you how many runs that player saved his team (or cost his team, if the number is negative).  So, the effect of Nelson Cruz making 14 extra catches for ever 800 balls in play (and not make errors, or contribute to double plays) was to save his team about 35 runs over the course of the season.  Again, a negative number is bad – a player’s range or being error prone would cost his team that many runs.

Right Field:

14.0 34.5 Nelson Cruz (TEX)
11.9 17.0 Ryan Sweeney (OAK)

Cruz made a lot of plays – only Suzuki made more, but Ichiro played more than 250 additional innings and had just 24 more putouts.  Like Jayson Werth, Cruz had more putouts than Texas center fielders – something that rarely happens.  Sweeney was solid, but in only 600 innings. Shin-Soo Choo or Alex Rios were third by my reckoning…  For years, Rios should have been in center and not Vernon Wells.

– 8.4 -28.7 Nick Markakis (BAL)
-10.4 -23.3 Michael Cuddyer (MIN)
-10.2 -17.8 Magglio Ordonez (DET)

Jack Cust just missed this list and he only played 400 atrociously lousy innings…  Markakis gets raves for his arm, but if you don’t get to any flies, you aren’t helping the team.  Ordonez is a regular to the brick glove list and should be a DH.

Center Field:

10.0 20.0 Carlos Gomez (MIN)
7.4 16.4 Adam Jones (BAL)
5.4 14.4 Franklin Gutierrez (SEA)

All the young legs.  Milwaukee will appreciate how good Gomez is defensively (the pitchers will, anyway).  I thought Gutierrez should have moved Sizemore to right in Cleveland and he proved me right.

-5.9 -16.8 Vernon Wells (TOR)
-5.9 -16.5 Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
-7.4 -14.9 Marlon Byrd (TEX)

Vernon Wells has been a slow centerfielder for years – it’s about time to move him to left or right field.  (Just listing his range numbers, 2006: -3.7, 2007: -5.1, 2008: -6.2, costing between 10 and 17 runs to his team each year.)  Ellsbury was lousy despite setting the record for most putouts in a game.  And pity the Cubs if they put Byrd in CF…

Left Field:

5.3 17.8 Jason Bay (BOS)
4.6 15.3 David DeJesus (KC)
4.2 12.5 Carl Crawford (TB)

Bay sure does get a bad reputation for his defense, but he wasn’t a problem last year.  I think Boston will miss him.  Unlike the NL, the AL has a few guys who can really play here and are truly left fielders.

-14.2 -15.3 Adam Lind (TOR)
– 4.7 -12.3 Johnny Damon (NYY)
– 4.6 -10.2 Delmon Young (MIN)

Adam Lind is a DH who is forced into left.  Damon is 36 and is starting to show the effects of old and injured wheels.  And Delmon Young has NEVER been a good fielder.

Shortstop:

14.1 30.8 Elvis Andrus (TEX)
7.6 15.7 Cesar Izturis (BAL)
3.5 11.1 Erick Aybar (LAA)

If anyone in their right mind really looks at this, there is NO WAY that Elvis Andrus should have been denied a gold glove.  Okay – he makes a few too many errors.  But he makes SO MANY plays.  Compared to the worst fielding shortstop in the AL – the guy they gave the gold glove to – Elvis had 55 more putouts and 67 more assists in about 23 fewer innings. 122 additional plays.

-9.2 -14.2 Derek Jeter (NYY)

If you go by guys who played a lot of innings, Alexei Ramirez and Marco Scutaro (or Asdrubal Cabrera) would be second and third. However, I thought I would point out that even though Marco Scutaro is a step up from the 2009 position holders – he’s NOT going to make Boston’s defense airtight.  Scutaro’s range is -5.0/-6.4.  However, Julio Lugo’s 243 innings were brutal (-20.4 range, costing 12.3 runs) and Alex Gonzalez was a step up from abysmal to just bad (-10.9 range, costing them 5.6 runs).  Jason Bartlett’s ankle injury was serious – he went from a gold glover to a problem.

Third Base:

9.3 31.9 Evan Longoria (TB)
14.0 28.6 Adrian Beltre (SEA)
8.6 21.7 Melvin Mora (BAL)

Chone Figgins is above average, but defensively is about twenty runs worse than having Beltre out there.  I stand by what I wrote before – it’s not an improvement to have Figgins in Seattle, though the backups will play less.  Longoria is the real deal.

-16.9 -39.0 Michael Young (TEX)
-17.0 -12.9 Ty Wigginton (BAL)

Michael Young must have been watching Elvis get all the grounders, too.  This just proves that because you once were a decent enough (not great, though) shortstop you can’t just try playing third base and become good at it.  It’s taken YEARS for Alex Rodriguez to go from a lousy third baseman to one who is just a little below average.

Second Base:

7.9 23.3 Placido Polanco (DET)
5.9 18.8 Aaron Hill (TOR)
6.1 16.4 Robinson Cano (NYY)

And Detroit didn’t want Polanco anymore?  He remains very, very good at second base.  Philadelphia hopes he can still play third but I have my doubts that he’ll be GREAT the way he is great here.  Cano has improved every year.  Ian Kinsler just missed this list – he’s regularly awesome.

-11.0 -31.2 Brian Roberts (BAL)
– 6.5 -19.9 Alberto Callaspo (KC)

That Mora and Izturis were solid makes me think that there could be a statistical bias here, but Roberts’ numbers, even with help, are still plain old bad.  By the way – this isn’t news.   He’s been below average three of the last four years.

2006: -4.8 -10.4
2007:   1.2 5.2
2008: -4.3 -12.6
2009: -11.0 -31.2

That’s a pretty big dip, which is part aging and probably part batters hitting in a different direction last year.

First Base:

14.3 37.8 Kendry Morales (LAA)
12.1 24.4 Russell Branyan (SEA)
8.2 15.1 Chris Davis (TEX)

Mark Teixeira, for the first time in a while, just missed making this list. He’s usually in the middle.  I had no idea Morales was that good (or, for that matter, anyone on this list), but I will be watching to see if he remains this good going forward.

-33.5 -28.0 Victor Martinez (CLE)
– 9.6 -20.5 Justin Morneau (MIN)
-14.3 -17.3 Hank Blalock (TEX)

If you count his time in Boston, Martinez cost his teams more than 35 runs – he’s a catcher and can’t really play the position.  Morneau’s injury wasn’t just killing his bat – he was less and less mobile as the year went on.

Torrealba Talks About Son’s Kidnapping; Posnanski and James Discuss Pitch Counts

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As a lot of you know, I’m in favor of using pitch counts to monitor fatigue for pitchers, but not to limit the number of pitches or innings a pitcher can throw in a game.  My thought was that for most guys, instead of limiting the number of total pitches thrown, pay more attention to a number thrown in an inning, and pay MORE attention in innings when a batter faces eight or more pitches, or a pitcher clears 20 pitches.

For example, I’d let any starter throw 33 pitches in the first inning.  But, in the second, I’d lower that number by two – and keep doing that for the rest of the game.  At the end of seven, I wouldn’t let my starter throw 19 pitches without having someone ready to go in the pen.  However, if the guy threw 20 or more pitches in the inning, you’d reduce that number in subsequent innings by another two pitches (let’s say it was in the second inning), so now instead of allowing 29 pitches in the third, I’d move it to 27.  If it were 25 pitches thrown in the inning, knock another two off, and if 30, knock two more off…  It’s a rule of thumb, mind you, and something that could be modified based on experience with different pitchers.

The idea was that over time, the number of pitches someone could reasonably expect to throw would be less with each inning, but if he was still effective, you could keep the starter out there.  Theoretically, then, a pitcher could throw 140 pitches in a game over eight or nine innings, but if few or no innings were higher than 20 or so, it probably wouldn’t be very taxing at all.

And, you could do other things – if you notice that someone seems to struggle, change the counts.  Still, it’s a system that doesn’t say “you’re done” after 100 pitches, and even encourages pitches to do things like build endurance.  To help this process out, I’d also speed up the game so that pitchers weren’t waiting too long between pitches, trying to end games in 2:40 rather than 3:10.  Finally, it would reduce the number of pitchers needed on a roster from 12 or 13 back to 10 or 11, which would prevent guys like Cody Ross getting too much time on the mound.

Well, it’s nice when other professionals agree with me.  Joe Posnanski and Bill James discuss it on SI’s site.  In short, they discuss how Nolan Ryan is encouraging Texas pitchers to build leg strength, get in better shape, and plan on throwing more complete games.  I like it.

On to other news…

Yorvit Torrealba told of the fear he and his family faced when dealing with his son’s kidnapping.  The kid is doing better, but he lives in Miami now.  Amazing story, really.  Give it a read.

If you are looking for injury updates, here’s some good news and some bad news…

Good News:  Grady Sizemore is only about a week away from playing again.  The bad news is that Jake Westbrook is not.

Good News:  Damaso Marte is ready to begin throwing again.  The bad news is that Jason Isringhausen’s injury is bad enough to end his season.

Mets outfielder Gary Sheffield is hitting despite a sore knee, which will require an MRI.  Not sure if it’s good or bad news.

On the Mend?  Welcome back to the Rays, Jason Bartlett.  Also, Toronto catcher Michael Barrett heads to rehab; Ryan Freel does the same for the Cubs.

Indians Aided By Gulls; Old Pitchers Getting Second Looks

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When I saw the highlight, I couldn’t believe it – but the Indians got a bizarre bounce to win its game against the Royals.  Shin Soo Choo’s line drive single to center went into a flock of gulls, hitting one of them, and the ball caromed past Coco Crisp to the wall, allowing the winning run to score.

David Ortiz has homered three times in the last week, and the Red Sox own the Yankees.  I’ve never really liked the Yankees – grew up a Fred Lynn and Carlton Fisk fan – but I never thought it would turn like this.  (For the record, I never hated them either – I grew up in Chicago, but the 1975 season was one of the years that galvanized me as a baseball fan.)

Is it me, or were the Red Sox more fun to root for when they were good but not quite good enough?  I think it’s because we’ve now added the term “nation” to refer to a group of fans, and that just sounds more arrogant.  Red Sox Nation is arrogant.  Red Sox fans are cool.  Living in Florida, they refer to Gator Nation, and that just makes me root for Florida International instead.  There’s no Jayhawk Nation.  If there were, I’d be less inclined to participate.

I digress.

Pablo Ozuna was trying to get back to the majors – apparently too hard.  He’ll be sitting for 50 games after a PED suspension kicks in.

With the injury to Brandon McCarthy and others, the Rangers are looking for pitching depth.  So, they signed Orlando Hernandez (El Duque!) to a minor league deal.  El Duque hasn’t pitched in the majors in two years, last losing time to a toe requiring surgery.

If El Duque can get a deal, how about Pedro?  Pedro Martinez threw for a Rays scout and might get a second look sometime this year.

Speaking of Mets pitchers, John Maine gets a DL stint to rest a weary shoulder.  That’s the story from MLB, but the transaction wire didn’t list it.

HOWEVER, the transaction wire noted the returns of Koji Uehara for Baltimore, Nick Punto for Minnesota, and Pat Burrell for Tampa.  I was watching the Rays game last night and Kevin Kennedy (now Rays TV color commentator, alongside Dwayne Staats) suggested that Burrell wasn’t hitting real well in his rehab stint, but Gabe Gross’s play made Matt Joyce expendable.  Kennedy also mentioned that Jason Bartlett is going to DH in his first rehab start before playing shortstop in a game.  Tony Clark gets a rehab trip to Reno before he returns to Arizona.