Best and Worst Pitchers in the AL for 2009; And Other Notes…

Earlier this week, I posted my list of the top pitchers in the NL and explained my methods.  Just as a recap, here’s what I am trying to do:

1) I start with the number of runs allowed by each pitcher, and the number of innings that guy pitched.

2) I modify the number of runs allowed to account for any bias based on the pitcher’s home park.

3) I modify the number of runs allowed based on my defensive rating system for teams and players because if you have Seattle’s team defense behind you, you are less likely to allow a run than if you had the Royals defense behind you.  We’ll get into this in more detail when we hand out defensive awards next week.

Then, I compare what an average pitcher would have done with what that pitcher did – and come up with a “runs saved” or “extra runs allowed” ranking.  Nobody saved his team more runs than did Zack Greinke last year.  Zack Greinke had a really low ERA over more than 220 innings despite pitching in a park that helps hitters a little bit and having a rather poor defense behind him.  As such, his season is the best season I have tracked since I started doing this in 2005.

Top Pitchers (by Runs Saved)

65.61 – Zack Greinke (KC)
47.11 – Roy Halliday (TOR)
33.22 – Jon Lester (BOS)
32.14 – Felix Hernandez (SEA)
27.55 – Andrew Bailey (OAK)
26.51 – Cliff Lee (CLE)
25.74 – C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
25.73 – Justin Verlander (DET)
22.21 – Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
21.30 – Mariano Rivera (NYY)
21.13 – Joe Nathan (MIN)
20.80 – Jered Weaver (LAA)
20.57 – Kevin Millwood (TEX)
20.09 – Josh Beckett (BOS)

21.61 – Jarrod Washburn (SEA) – but -13.29 in DET

In fact, it’s not even close – Greinke had as good a season as we’ve seen by a pitcher in a long, long time.  Imagine if he had done this for 40 starts instead of 33, with a team like Seattle.  He MIGHT have had an ERA around 1.70 and a won-loss record of something like 27 – 4.  From this, you can see that Halliday instead of Cliff Lee will be a slight step up for Philadelphia and would have been a more serious contender for the Cy Young Award (in my book) had not Greinke been more dominating.

Another thing of interest – four relievers were good enough to sneak onto the list of pitcher saving his team more than 20 runs, led by Andrew Bailey.  Let’s use that to show the list of the top relievers in the AL last year.

Top Relievers

27.55 – Andrew Bailey (OAK)
22.21 – Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
21.30 – Mariano Rivera (NYY)
21.13 – Joe Nathan (MIN)
18.41 – Matt Guerrier (MIN)
18.09 – Darren O’Day (TEX)
17.04 – Matt Thornton (CHW)
17.04 – Michael Wuertz (OAK)
16.79 – Darren Oliver (LAA)
16.41 – Jose Mijares (MIN)
16.16 – Brandon Lyon (DET)
15.87 – Joakim Soria (KC)

A couple of things – usually the top guys are middle relievers or set up men with great ERAs in 70 innings.  There are a couple here – Thorton, Wuertz, and Oliver for example.  Still – the top four guys were KILLER closers in 2009.

Worst Pitchers

-37.04 – Andy Sonnestine (TB)
-33.26 – Fausto Carmona (CLE)
-24.16 – Chien-Ming Wang (NYY)
-22.81 – Jason Berken (BAL)
-21.45 – Derek Holland (TEX)
-20.71 – Luke Hochevar (KC)
-21.02 – Chris Jakubauskas (SEA)
-20.38 – Jose Contreras (CHW)
-19.59 – Armando Galarraga (DET)
-19.17 – Rich Hill (BAL)
-18.36 – Garrett Olson (SEA)

-23.47 – Scott Kazmir (TB) – but positive 11.34 in LAA

If you had Andy Sonnestine on your fantasy team last year, you didn’t read my Tampa Rays Team Profile that pointed out that many of the Rays pitchers weren’t as good as you thought because the team defense in 2008 was amazingly good.  In 2009, Bartlett was hurt, and Upton struggled, and Aki Iwamura went down, and Carlos Pena looked a little older (and then left to an injury).  Sonnestine may throw strikes, but they sure do get hit a lot.

Hopefully, Fausto Carmona and Chien-Ming Wang can figure things out.  Two years ago, these guys won nearly 40 games combined – and now they are #2 and #3 on the wrong list.

And, if you are scrolling down to the NL List, note that the list contained a bunch of Brewer and Padre pitchers.  In the AL, only Seattle doubled up by having two guys get pounded around – bad pitching was more evenly distributed…

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Greinke Tabbed AL Cy Young Champ; Other News…

He didn’t win 20 games, but that’s because without him, the Royals were 49 – 89…  Even with him, the team didn’t always help Zack Greinke out.  Check out his game log – he should have been undefeated in April and May, but he got saddled with a loss in a game he allowed one run in eight innings – one of seven starts where he allowed two runs or less and didn’t get the win.

However, the voters got it right – the best pitcher in the AL last year, heck the best pitcher in baseball last year, was Zack Greinke.

Finishing second was Felix Hernandez, a worthy contender who had his best professional season, followed by Justin Verlander who carried the Tigers on his back during the late stages of the season.

Remember when Zack Greinke was a source of frustration for the Royals?

Joe Posnanski did, and his article for SI telling the story of how Greinke dealt with a severe anxiety disorder is pretty darned good.

Hot Stove Notes…

Remember Eric Gagne?  He pitched independent baseball in Canada for 2009 and wants to make a comeback…  As a starter.  [MLB]

Miguel Tejada may be a free agent, but the Astros are open to having him come back – possibly at third base, too.   Meanwhile, rumors that John Smoltz might be in their plans aren’t necessarily true.  [MLB]

Matt Holliday is a coveted free agent, but apparently not coveted (that much, anyway) by the Angels.  [MLB]

Washington wants to upgrade the rotation (and Lord knows they need to) and have expressed an interest in John Lackey.  [MLB]

Philadelphia’s Chan Ho Park said that if he had his choice, he’d rather be a starter.  As someone who watches him pitch, I’d think he would be most successful getting a paycheck as a long reliever.  [MLB]

Aubrey Huff and Jarrod Washburn were short term Tigers, and won’t be resigned by Detroit.  [MLB]

Cubs reliever John Grabow has filed for free agency, but the Cubs want the lefty reliever to stay if possible.  [MLB]

Kip Wells is the only Reds player to file for free agency.  For whatever reason, I seem to see him every spring in Florida and he’s awesome, but once April hits, he’s rather beatable.  (Except by the Marlins…)  Anyway – he might get a minor league contract, but I’d be surprised if we see him beyond 2010.  [MLB]

Randy Johnson filed for free agency, so it’s possible we might see him one more time…  His arm is ready to fall off, having missed half of 2009, but you never know.  I’ll miss the big guy once he decides to retire…  [MLB]

The Yankees declined an option on pitcher Sergio Mitre, who now is eligible for arbitration.  If he gets a job following a season missing time for banned substances and having an ERA approaching seven, that’s plenty…

Happy Birthday!

There are only a couple of players left in the majors older than I am (how sad!), led by Jamie Moyer – a former Cub – who turns 47 today.  Keep going, Mr. Moyer – you’ll never get this chance again!!!

Others celebrating with cake, cards, or rememberances include:  Deacon McGuire (1863), Jack Coombs (1882), Les Mann (1892), Rocky Nelson (1924), Gene Mauch (1925), Roy Sievers (1926), Cal Koonce (1940), Steve Henderson (1952), Luis Pujols (1955), Dante Bichette (1963) – I can still see his shot after hitting a game winning homer on opening day some years back on ESPN, Ron Coomer (1966), Tom Gordon (1967), Gary Sheffield (1968), David Ortiz (1975), C.J. Wilson (1980), Travis Buck (1983).

Dad, Daughter Find 15 Minutes of Fame over a Foul Ball (and other news…)

This is what it’s all about – a family going to the ball game.  Steve Monforto, a long-time Phillies fan, takes his wife and two daughters to the game and for the first time catches a foul ball.  After sharing the moment with those around him, he does the nice thing and gives the ball to his daughter – who promptly throws the ball over the railing and down to the lower deck.  The girl immediately realizes (from the reaction of the fans around her) that throwing the ball may not have been the right thing – but Daddy rescues her by giving her a big hug.

And this morning (Thursday), the family will be on the Today Show.  Click on the link and watch the MLB video (or watch it here, below) – it’s priceless.  The article on MLB is also well written and contains a number of great story lines.  [MLB]

As expected, Jorge Posada and Jesse Carlson were suspended three games for their roles in a bench-clearning incident.  Posada needed three days off anyway… [ESPN]

The Texas Rangers lost a fourth straight game (maybe I should add the Rangers to the “Is it Over” segment below), this by a one-hitter to Oakland (!) – mostly because they don’t have their two most productive hitters in the lineup.  Michael Young may play this weekend against the Angels, but his hamstring is still a problem.  And, Josh Hamilton not only has lower back pain and a strained glute (are they related?) – and is worried he might not play again in 2009.  [ESPN]

This is what happens when  your team goes from playoff contention to losing twelve of thirteen.  Tampa’s Carl Crawford gave a shout out to Pat Burrell, resulting in a bit of a screaming match requiring Joe Maddon to call both to his office to clear the air.  [ESPN]

Yankee starter Andy Pettitte missed his start yesterday to rest a “tired” shoulder.  Pettitte is now scheduled to pitch against Los Angeles next week.  [FoxSports]

In a classy move, the Tigers invited Ernie Harwell back to Comerica Park and to thank him for his more than 40 years of service to the Tigers community.  Harwell used the opportunity to thank those people in Detroit and all of Michigan for sharing their love and concern for him.  Harwell nears 92 years old and has inoperable cancer.  I listened to him on the radio back in the day – and nobody was better at making a ballgame seem like baseball was a large part of a community’s fabric.  An equally classy move – Tigers Manager Jim Leyland called a team meeting to explain to the younger players just how much Harwell meant to baseball in Detroit and beyond.  When Harwell was brought out, both dugouts watched in awe, many players taking pictures to capture the moment.  [ESPN]

Roy Oswalt’s season come to an end as the Astros ace doesn’t want his back and hip pain (now affecting his shoulder, too) to linger into 2010.  So, Oswalt will begin the rest and rehab process now instead.  Oswalt finishes with eight wins on the season – far below his normal levels of success.  Hurry back, Roy – baseball needs more guys like you.  [ESPN]

Another pitcher who may not pitch again in 2009 is Tiger Jarrod Washburn, whose knee injury isn’t healing very quickly.  Washburn says he’s hurting the team by going out there, and doesn’t know why the team would let him pitch. [FoxSports]

Cleveland centerfielder Grady Sizemore’s second surgery, this to repair a sports hernia, was a success.  Here’s to coming back healthy and strong for 2010 as well.

Not Fun Stat Mark Reynolds may have 42 homers and is hitting .272.  On the other hand, for the second straight year he has 200 strikeouts (!), and should break his record of 204 sometime by the end of the week.  Amazing, really.

Is it Over? The White Sox waived Bartolo Colon.  Colon was signed, got hurt, and would disappear during rehab stints.  I think we’ve seen the last of him.

Welcome Back! Randy Johnson was activated by the Giants.  Greg Dobbs (Philles), Clay Condrey (Phillies), Laynce Nix (Reds), Carlos Silva (Mariners), Alfredo (Marriage of) Figaro (Tigers) all came off the DL.

Hurry Back! Billy Sadler (Astros – Shoulder), Justin Miller (Giants – Elbow), Sean White (Mariners – Shoulder) and Mark DeFelice (Brewers – Shoulder) all head to the DL to start the rehab process and get ready for 2010.

Afterthoughts… Tommy Lasorda’s portrait will be hung in the National Portrait Gallery in Washington DC.  Who doesn’t love the guy, really?  If you don’t love Lasorda, you don’t love baseball.

Harwell Has Cancer; And Other News (but not nearly as important…)

Legendary Hall of Fame broadcaster for the Detroit Tigers, Ernie Harwell announced today that he has incurable cancer of the bile duct.  Doctors told him that surgery wasn’t really an option, and so Harwell’s days are likely numbered (well – all of are, he just has a better idea of his).  I listed to Harwell on a transistor radio at nights as a kid, and while his impact on my baseball life wasn’t that of Jack Brickhouse, he was one of my favorites.  Harwell spent 42 years at the mic for Detroit, and was Brooklyn’s replacement for an ill Red Barber.  [FoxSports]

In other Tigers news, Jarrod Washburn will miss a start to rest his ailing knee…  [FoxSports]

A move I will always support, Boston closer Jonathon Papelbon was fined $5000 for slow pitching.  Now, if they would only fine batters for the same thing…  [FoxSports]

Mets 3B David Wright is back to his old helmet, days after trying the newer Rawlings helmet, which is rated to 100 MPH, but is bulkier and 50% heavier than the standard model.  [FanNation/SI]

Rays centerfielder B.J. Upton rolled his ankle when he collided with Carl Crawford chasing a fly ball last night.  He’s day-to-day.  [MLB]

Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton has a pinched nerve in his lower back and will miss a couple of games, but he’s listed as day-to-day.  [MLB]

Trade News… Texas acquired pitching prospect Danny Gutierrez from the Royals for two minor leaguers: Tim Smith and Manual Pina.  Gutierrez has been reasonably successful, getting better every year with good control and decent strikeout numbers.  He missed part of 2009 resting a tender shoulder – which would be problematic over time.  Tim Smith is an outfielder with good speed, understands the strike zone, and has shown a little power.  Manuel Pina is a catcher – kind of a slap hitter who makes contact, but doesn’t necessarily have patience (Miguel Olivo with less power).  But if you read the news article, this seems like a very Royals type trade.  Get rid of a decent minor league pitcher for two injured players…

Welcome Back! The Marlins activated Nick Johnson off the DL (hamstring), and St. Louis pitcher Todd Wellemeyer returns from the DL…

Race Watch! At least the NL Wild Card race is interesting; the division races are about over.  With Boston taking two from Tampa, the best AL race might be the tightening AL West race…

Trade Anaylsis: Tigers Add Washburn for Two Months; Mariners Get Two Prospects

Call this one a loan – Jarrod Washburn even said that he’s had such a good time in Seattle this year that he’d consider coming back as a free agent once the season was over.   Seattle, which had acquired Jack Wilson and Ian Snell and looked like minor buyers a day ago, took a chance on a couple of Tiger cubs with potential.

Tigers Get:  One of the better left handers and one with World Series experience (Angels, 2002).  Washburn added a split fingered fastball this year and turned into one of the top starters in the AL – one reason that the Mariners were still in contention for at least a wild card spot if not an outside shot at the division title.  The big difference in 2009?  Fewer walks and fewer homers allowed… 

Mariners Get:  AAA pitcher Luke French, who hasn’t been intimidated by a short stint in the majors but really isn’t special.  He doesn’t strike a ton of guys out and, while he showed improvement in 2009, hasn’t always been consistently hitting the strike zone.  Right now, he looks like a long or middle reliever – and probably deserves a chance to do better.  The other player, though, Mauricio Robles, could be interesting.  An undrafted Venezuelan, Robles gets strikeouts and is working on his control.  Two or three years from now, he might be a mid level starter – and if Washburn comes back anyway, the Mariners would easily win this deal.  Washburn was sort of expendable with Ian Snell’s arrival – not that Snell has pitched this well – so the chance to get a long term prospect for a two month loan is not too bad.

Winner?  If the Tigers win the pennant, they will feel like a winner, but I’ll go with Seattle.

2009 Season Forecast: Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners
61 – 101 (Last, AL West 39 games back)
Runs Scored: 671
Runs Allowed: 811

2008 in Review:

Many, many teams saw the acquisition of Erik Bedard and thought the Mariners would be really, really good – a contender for the AL West crown.  Instead, they had a hard time scoring runs, a harder time preventing them, and even won fewer games than they should have considering that they had the largest gap in runs allowed to runs scored (opponents outscored the Mariners by 140 runs) than anyone in the AL.

In short, they were a team with odd splits, some bad decisions, and the worst record in the American League.

Actually, the Mariners should have been around .500 in April and June, but they underperformed.  An 8 – 20 May put them well out of the race in a hurry, and by the All-Star break, they were working to acquire some warm bodies.

Decisions that didn’t work out?  Erik Bedard was a good acquisition, but he missed more than half the season.  But someone should be held responsible for racing out and giving millions to Miguel Batista (4 – 14, 6.26).  Ouch.  And who’s idea was it to sign Carlos Silva?  (4 – 15, 6.46).  Yes – Silva doesn’t walk anybody, but he’s VERY hittable.  And, some prospects aren’t panning out…  Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement combined to hit about .212 in more than 440 at bats – a lot of outs.  Throw in two or three more off seasons, and you can see where this is headed.

The odd splits?  The Mariners won just one road game in both May and September, and just one home game in June.  Those three splits combined for a 3 – 38 record.  Oh, and lefties couldn’t get left handed hitters out.  In that situation, opponents hit .300, with a .371 on base percentage.

Tell Me About the Offense…

Lousy – and in need of a serious facelift.

The infield featured Richie Sexton, who was released after hitting .218 with 11 homers in half a season.  His replacement, Jeff Clement, hit .227 with only 5 homers.  Bryan LeHair didn’t hit much, either.  Mike Sweeney would have been an improvement if he could stay off the DL – but he can’t.  He’s usually only asked to DH – and his back won’t let him do that much any more.  Jose Lopez was surprisingly productive at second, with 41 doubles and 17 homers.  However Yuniesky Betancourt needed an amazing September to close with production that remains below league average.  At least Adrian Beltre hit well, 25 – 77 – .266, but has never hit anything like that 40+ homer season that got his big contract.  Miguel Cairo played a lot of positions and didn’t help the offense too much.

Ichiro Suzuki continues to slap hits all over the field, generating more than 100 runs of offense by getting on base, but he’s not one of the great offensive dynamos in right field.  He has no power at all, with a .386 slugging percentage.  And his OBA is .363, not .400.  Raul Ibanez is their best hitter – driving in 110 runs without missing a game (you’d never know he was closer to 40 than 30).  He’s in Philadelphia now, and will be very, very difficult to replace.  The third outfielder was a disappointment – Brad Wilkerson, Balentien, Jeremy Reed.  Willie Bloomquist got on base a little, but after that does little to help an offense score runs.

The catchers, led by Kenji Johjima and his power-free .227 batting average didn’t put any runs on the board.  And, the DHs – the retired Jose Vidro – were hopeless.  (Except the rare Mike Sweeney days.)

Defense:

Johjima and Jamie Burke weren’t horrible.  For all the baserunners allowed, few stole second.  Clement didn’t stop anybody from stealing, but his best shot is to find his swing and play first base.  Overall, they score poorly because the team record and ERA were awful, and they don’t score well in terms of mobility (assists per game that aren’t stolen bases).  Maybe teams didn’t need to bunt off of these guys (and they didn’t).

The infield wasn’t too bad, but they had holes.  Sexton is an awful fielder and the infield got better the minute he moved out of town.  Lopez has a bit of range, but is error prone.  Beltre appears to have lost a step, and Betancourt’s range is slightly below average – and his reputation for not hustling isn’t going to help his range.  He makes a lot of errors, too.

The outfield is okay – Suzuki’s range in center was pretty good, but his range in right (despite his speed) was actually below average.  Ibanez is league average – impressive for his age.  Balentien is okay in right, but neither he nor Jeremy Reed are really any good in center.  Bloomquist covers a lot of ground in center, but didn’t get too many innings there.

Now Pitching:

The rotation should have been better.  Felix Hernandez made 30 starts and was solid.  Bedard was okay for 15 starts, but missed the rest of the year with a bum shoulder.  Jarrod Washburn was disappointing and either needs to learn another pitch or accept that he’s fifth starter material.  His record was poor (5 – 14), but some of that was offense, too.  However, Batista was 27.5 runs worse than the average pitcher, and Silva was even worse – 32 runs below average.  Ryan Feierabend would have been in that league, but he only made eight scary starts.  R.A. Dickey looks like a young Miguel Batista, and that’s not going to help any.

The bullpen lost closer J.J. Putz, but Brandon Morrow was solid in his place.  Roy Corcoran had a solid season in middle relief, though his lack of strikeouts makes me think it was a fluke.  Mark Lowe isn’t long for the majors if he pitches like this, but Ryan Rowland-Smith was very good pitching as a starter or reliever.  I’d put him in the rotation.  Sean Green pitched a lot – but won’t be here as he was signed by the Mets.

Forecasting 2009:

We’re talking about a team that has to close the gap between runs scored and allowed by 140 runs to get to .500.  Let’s see what we got.

A full season of Erik Bedard would help, and Rowland-Smith instead of Silva means the potential for 30 or 40 runs of savings.  Clement instead of Sexton could be 10 runs of improvement in the defense.  Franklin Gutierrez is a great outfielder, he might be worth 10 runs, too.  I just don’t see any other defensive option – unless whomever takes over in left field (likely Balentien) is going to that much better than Ibanez.  Besides, with Putz gone, is Brandon Morrow a closer or starter?  Batista could become a closer (I wouldn’t, though he did it a few years ago for Toronto), or you could try Mark Lowe or somebody.  But I don’t know how it’s going to be better than last year’s bullpen – I don’t see the depth.

Offensively, Balentien is no Ibanez – that could be 30 runs less in offense.  Franklin Gutierrez arrives to play the outfield from Cleveland – I like what brings.  He’ll help out some – he’s 15 runs better than Bloomquist and Reed combined, it not more, and plays better in the field.  I know Ken Griffey, Jr. is back – and that’s great for ticket sales, but he’s not an offensive force anymore.  Still, as badly as Jose Vidro was, he’s probably worth 20 runs of improvement.  The one BIG improvement might be giving Russell Branyan, a free agent signing, a shot to play DH.  He might be so happy to have a full-time job, he’d improve the offense 50 or 60 runs by himself by playing first or DH.  Clement or Johjima might do better at the plate – 10 more runs from the catcher’s spot.

Let’s add it up.  Instead of giving up 811 runs, they might get it to 751.  Instead of scoring 671 runs, they might score 735.  That means a record of about 79 – 83, which would still be a pretty solid improvement.  The lineup is better than what they had last year, and the rotation could be better, while the bullpen is a question mark.  I’ll buy 79 wins.

The real question is this:  If they are any good in July, are they going to make a run at winning the division, or sell off Washburn and Lopez and Beltre?  I sure hope not.  One more starter and a legitimate extra hitter might make this team the division winner.

Down on the Farm:

AAA Tacoma has a few players who, on the surface, look like they might help – but remember to discount stats in the PCL…  The best prospect was Jeff Clement, who was hitting .335 with power, but hasn’t yet panned out in the majors.  That means the 23-year-old Wladimir Balentien (.266 with serious power) shouldn’t be expected to hit .280, but more like .220.  Matt Tuiasosopo, son of Manu, may have a future as a third baseman, but he’s not ready yet.  If he raises his numbers from 13 – 73 – .281 to, say, 20 – 90 – .320, I’d say he’s ready.  He’s a kid though – just 23.  Infielder Luis Valbuena might be okay – just 22, gets on base, can run – but not a really high batting average.  If he gets on base, though, he’s a potential upgrade over Betancourt.

In terms of pitchers, the Mariners gave a shot to anyone with good control already (R.A. Dickey, Feierabend, Chris Jakubauskas).  None are legitimate prospects.

AA West Tennessee (the Diamond Jaxx) have one pitcher I like – reliever Shawn Kelley, who has control, power, and a little record of success.  He’s a future bullpen guy.  Catcher Adam Moore hit .319 with some power; if he’s going to take Johjima’s spot, he needs a solid year in AAA in 2009.  Michael Saunders is a young speedy outfielder with a future – could be a centerfielder or left fielder if he picks it up in AAA next year. 

The guys at High Desert (A+) to look for?  I like teenaged infielder Carlos Triunfel, who has a little power and a lot of speed – and a whole lot of upside.  Gregory Halman is 20 and already has signs of being a power hitter.  In Wisconsin, Michael Pineda looks like a potential ace starter (8 – 6, 1.95 – good K/W numbers), and Nathan Adcock is a starter with a live arm – perhaps too live (13 WPs).  2007 first round pick Phillippe Aumont is roaring through the minors with killer stuff.  He’ll be in the bigs by the end of 2010 at this rate.