2012 Season Forecast – Atlanta Braves

2011 Record: 89 – 73
Runs Scored: 641 (10th in the NL)
Runs Allowed: 605 (3rd in the NL)

The Braves actually played better than can be expected based on the ratio of runs to runs scored (estimated 86 wins).

2011 Season Summary:

Never really a threat to win the division (to my dismay as I predicted them to surprise many to win the east), the Braves were never really bad.  They could win in four spots of the rotation, but they couldn’t generate enough offense to make it easy.  Off seasons by Jason Heyward, Chipper Jones, Dan Uggla (he needed a 30-game hitting streak to get to .233 on the season), and anyone who played center field offset a bullpen led by Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters that held every lead…  Well, until the last ten days of the season.  Like their old cousins in Boston, the Braves couldn’t get that one or two wins that would have sealed the deal and wound up being kicked out the playoffs by the Cardinals.

Pitching:

The Braves have ample starting pitching.  Tim Hudson won 16 games and was well above average all year long.  Three others made between 22 and 25 starts – all were successful.  Jair Jurrjens, who is constantly on the trading block, was the best of the lot (13 – 6, 2.96 ERA), but Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy were both decent.  Mike Minor took on 15 starts and continues to improve – he’s nearly a league average pitcher now and could be ready for a rotation slot.  Only Derek Lowe struggled – he fell off the map in the second half – and has been dispatched to Cleveland to see if he has anything left.  The Braves even have prospects in Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado if needed.  Looking forward, the rotation could still be solid if not a hair better than last year.  Hudson and Jurrjens might take a slight step backward, but Beachy and Minor could be better and one of the rookies will most certainly be better than Derek Lowe last year.

In the bullpen, three pitchers had absolutely stunning years.  Closer Craig Kimbrel saved 46 games and was 16 runs better than the average pitcher in his 75 innings.  Set up man Jonny Venters was even better – 21.5 runs better than average.  The best of the lot was Eric O’Flaherty, who had a 0.98 ERA in just shy of 74 innings and saved the team nearly 25 full runs.  George Sherrill, Scott Linebrink, and Christian Martinez were also above average pitchers last year.  Looking ahead, it’s hard to see the Braves being BETTER than that – it’s rare to save that many runs over 70+ innings – so I think gravity is going to pull this team back some 25 runs.  O’Flaherty can’t possibly have a sub 1.00 ERA again, for example.  This will still be a good unit, but it can’t be THAT good again.

Catching:

Brian McCann is one of the premier offensive catchers in the game and his defensive skills are pretty good.  His backup Dave Ross remains dependable and adds a little offense.  As a unit, this is one of the three best teams in baseball behind the plate.  At issue is the fact that McCann may be the best offensive player on the team – but his best seasons seem to be two or three years ago.

Infield:

Defensively, an infield of Freddie Freeman, Dan Uggla, Alex Gonzalez, and Chipper Jones is, at best, not bad but not too good either.  It’s actually better when Martin Prado plays third.  Offensively, they put up runs – and that’s one reason the Braves win games.

Freddie Freeman is going to be one of the better first basemen in the NL – already a fair fielder and an above average hitter, he will be an all-star for many years to come.  Dan Uggla has been a steady, dependable power source and is good on the double play.  Tyler Pastornicky is going to get every shot to take over at short, now that Alex Gonzalez has been allowed to leave.  Gonzalez gave you flashes of power, but his bat isn’t great anymore and his glove is now just pretty good for an old guy.  Pastornicky will have better range, but might not match the offense.  As for Chipper Jones, he’s nursing sore knees and has already said that 2012 will be his last season.  Defensively, he’s been problematic at third for a while but his bat has been good enough.  Now, that’s not going to be the case.  When Jones is gone, Prado or Eric Hinske will get innings.  It sure would be more beneficial if Prado hit closer to .300 than .260 as he did last year.

I think Freeman and Uggla will be slightly better this year, which should make up for the team losing runs at short and third – call it a wash…

Outfield:

I think that the Cubs have a weak outfield in terms of production.  The Braves aren’t much better.

In left, you had Martin Prado – decent glove, middling power, and slightly worse than league average production.  That’s LEAGUE average, not LEFT FIELD average – where you want someone who hits 20+ homers and might drive in 85 or more runs.  Prado went 13 – 57 – .260 with hardly any other benefits (4/12 SBs, 34 walks in 129 games).  If Jose Constanza can hit the way he did in 109 at bats last year, that wouldn’t hurt.  Unfortunately, he’s not a banger either – he’s a burner and could play center for many teams.

In center, nobody hit.  Michael Bourn will be there all year, but he’s never hit .300 and doesn’t hit for power.  Nate McClouth hit .228 with four homers and Jordan Schafer was less productive (and sent to Houston for Bourn).  A full year of Bourn will be better, though, than what the Braves had last year.

In right, you had sophomore Jason Heyward, who fell off the map after such a promising rookie season.  I don’t see him hitting .227 again.  He still shows some patience at the plate and his power remains.

The problem may be a lack of a plan B.  Eric Hinske remains, as does Constanza, but even a returning Matt Diaz doesn’t look to help much if a hole opens up in the outfield.

Bench:

Prado gives the Braves some versatility, as does Hinske.  Diaz can pinch hit and platoon some.  Josh and Jack Wilson are around, but don’t offer much offense (and Jack is getting up there in years) and both are losing defensive skills, too.  Ross is good behind the plate.  It’s a full bench, but maybe not a great one.

Prospects:

The top prospects in AAA mostly made it for cups of coffee last year, including Constanza, Teheran and Pastornicky.  The one who didn’t was undrafted first baseman Mauro Gomez, who might be able to help out.  I don’t have a read on his glove, but he’s a decent power bat – might hit .250 with 20 homers in the big leagues.  He just doesn’t have a place to play here.  Another guy who wouldn’t kill you might be pitcher Todd Redmond, who had decent numbers at AAA Gwinett, going 10 – 8 with 142 Ks and just 47 walks in 169.2 innings.  The problem is that he’s been at AAA for three years now and he’s probably going to have to get a shot somewhere else as he’s not high on the prospect list.

The best hitter in AA isn’t high on the prospect lists either – that’s 26 year old Ernesto Mejia, who has stats like Mauro Gomez and, thus, has nowhere to play.  Some like infielder Mykal Jones, but he’s not going to replace Pastornicky any time soon.  Pitchers Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado got shots – they have major league stuff and are just kids.  Another good arm might be Brett Oberholtzer, who is close but needs more strikeouts to move up more quickly.  Reliever Billy Bullock has quite the arm, but lacks in control (65Ks, 34BBs in 49.2 innings).

A+ Rome features catcher Joe Terdoslavich, a power hitter who had 52 doubles to go with 20 homers. A one-time former #1 pick, Cory Rasmus has the stuff, but needs to find the strike zone more frequently – and stay healthier.

2012 Forecast:

I think the offense can be 25 runs better than last year – might even be more than that – because Bourn is here all year and Heyward will be better.  On the other hand, I think that the gravitational pull that will be working against the bullpen will equally offset that 25 run gain.  Throw in the fact that two other teams may well be challenging for the top spot in the NL East, the Braves will be lucky to finish with 85 wins, which might be third or fourth in this division.

2010 Top AL Shortstops

Alexei Ramirez – CHI (76.7 Runs Created, 32.1 Runs Saved = 108.8 Total Runs Production)

After an odd year where his bat fell and he couldn’t hit any doubles, Ramirez had a stunning 2010 season.  He slugged .431 thanks to 18 homers and 29 doubles, his batting average was a more than acceptable .282, and he scored 83 runs.  His glove work was spectacular, really – a ball magnet who also helped on the double play.  He earned the new contract…

Cliff Pennington – OAK (66.6 Runs Created, 26.9 Runs Saved = 93.5 Total Runs Production)

Would you have believed he was the second best shortstop in the AL?  His bat is marginally better than average, he played a lot of games, and his defensive range is stunning. His replacing Marco Scutaro was one of many reasons the As moved up in the standings last year.

Elvis Andrus – TEX (63.8 Runs Created, 26.0 Runs Saved = 89.8 Total Runs Production)

Has NO power, but slaps a few singles, draws some walks, and can scoot a little around the bases.  Oh – and he’s probably the best glove in the AL.  Robbed of the gold glove again, but will start winning it probably this year.  The voters are weird about these things…

Alex Gonzalez – TOR/ATL (77.3 Runs Created, -0.4 Runs Saved = 76.9 Total Runs Production)

The wind was blowing out, huh?  Had a great first half, which allowed Toronto to trade him while his stock was up to Atlanta for Escobar.  I always liked him when he was a Marlin – did a lot of good things.  Still can play enough, but isn’t a long term solution for anyone anymore and he can’t seem to stay somewhere longer than a year…

Yunel Escobar – ATL/TOR (53.5 Runs Created, 18.3 Runs Saved = 71.8 Total Runs Production)

Struggled mightily last year with Atlanta, came to Toronto and started to show signs of life.  I think he’ll rebound in 2011 and is going to be worth a late round draft pick in your fantasy leagues.

Jhonny Peralta – CLE/DET (69.7 Runs Created, 2.1 Runs Saved = 71.8 Total Runs Production)

Moved to third base in Cleveland, then brought to Detroit in hopes that he could solve the shortstop problem and keep Detroit in contention down the stretch.  He’s really not a very good defensive shortstop (he was a pretty good third baseman, though), but there are plenty of guys who are worse than him still getting chances to play.  And Peralta can put a few runs on the board, too.

Yuniesky Betancourt – KC (65.3 Runs Created, 5.3 Runs Created = 70.6 Total Runs Production)

He actually had a pretty good season on the surface…  Some power, he cut down the strikeouts, and fielded his position pretty well.  I can’t tell if anyone thinks he’s a championship type player, but he isn’t hurting you either.

Reid Brignac – TB (40.3 Runs Created, 14.3 Runs Saved = 54.6 Total Runs Production)

Hits like Ben Zobrist and played well enough in the field to allow Jason Bartlett to hit the road in 2011.  The Rays will be just fine.

Derek Jeter – NYY (80.0 Runs Created, -27.4 Runs Saved = 52.6 Total Runs Production)

Was the top shortstop last year because his offense made up for his total lack of defensive range.  He got a lot of at bats at the top of the Yankee order but was a league average hitter – which knocked him well down the ladder in 2010.  He can bounce back a little offensively, but he may not have a position with this team – except as captain.  The Yankees were in a tough position in dealing with Jeter, who really is a superstar as a personality, but no longer as a player.  Realistically, he only has a couple of years left unless he bounces back a lot in 2011.

Erick Aybar – LAA (62.0 Runs Created, -9.7 Runs Created = 52.3 Total Runs Production)

Not his best season –  has little power, doesn’t get on base or slap a bunch of singles, and didn’t play his best shortstop last year.  Can do better, and will have to if the Angels want to win the division again.

Ramon Santiago – DET (36.0 Runs Created, 11.6 Runs Saved = 47.6 Total Runs Production)

Four players got time here, including Adam Everett (some glove, no bat at all) and Danny Worth (not yet ready for the majors).  Santiago was nearly effective in the role last year, but it was a fluke and he really isn’t the answer.

Jason Bartlett – TB (61.6 Runs Created, -16.4 Runs Saved = 45.2 Total Runs Production)

No longer the rangy shortstop of two or three years ago, still contributes with the bat even when his average slips to .250.  Hits a few doubles, gets on base, and can still run smartly around the paths.

Marco Scutaro – BOS (79.9 Runs Created, -35.1 Runs Saved = 44.8 Total Runs Production)

That didn’t work out, did it…  Scutaro wasn’t blessed with great range when he was younger, and after signing the big deal in Boston, he really fell off the map defensively.  Offensively, he’s still pretty good, with a decent eye and a bit of power.  But if you are looking for reasons that the Boston pitching struggled in 2010 it starts right here.

J.J. Hardy – MIN (44.3 Runs Created, 0.2 Runs Saved = 44.5 Total Runs Production)

Only played 101 games, but was reasonably productive when he played.  Not appreciably different from Betancourt – just less playing time.  Alexi Casilla is currently listed as the new starter – a slap hitter with some range, but to be honest – might be a step down from Hardy.

Josh Wilson – SEA (33.5 Runs Created, 8.9 Runs Created = 42.4 Total Runs Production)

Does a good Jack Wilson impersonation – a bit less offense and a bit less defense (a little less range, a bit more error prone), but also a bit younger.  Not the answer without a serious upgrade in his output, which isn’t likely, and will have to be replaced if Seattle is going to compete.

Asdrubal Cabrera – CLE (45.6 Runs Created, -9.5 Runs Saved = 36.1 Total Runs Production)

Not a championship level player at this level – unlike his solid 2009.  In fact, Jason Donald made more plays per nine (though he committed a few more errors), and is a bit stronger offensively.  (I discuss Donald with the second basemen…)  Cabrera had a tolerable batting average, but – again – if you aren’t going to contribute more than 60 runs with the bat, your glove has to be solid – and Cabrera’s has not consistently been above average.

Jack Wilson – SEA (19.4 Runs Created, 12.9 Runs Saved = 32.3 Total Runs Production)

His best days are behind him; he can’t hit as well, can’t stay healthy, but he still does play a mean shortstop.

Cesar Izturis – BAL (35.0 Runs Created, -9.1 Runs Saved = 25.9 Total Runs Production)

If you’re going to hit like Mark Belanger, you had better field like him, too.  Izturis disappointed, putting up just 2.5 runs per 27 outs thanks to a .230 batting average and just 15 extra base hits in 150 games.  Now a utility player, with J.J. Hardy moving in to play short.

2010 AL Gold Glove and Dirty Brick Award Winners

My fielding ranking system is a method that looks at the number of plays made per 800 balls in play.  In effect, if someone makes one play more than another person at the same position, he reduces the batting average of the hitter by a point.  The best fielders occasionally make a run at 15 plays per 800 balls in play more than average, the worst can go 15 in the other direction.  Then, I convert those plays made into runs saved (or not saved, if the number is negative) based on the types of hits allowed on balls hit toward that fielder.  I also convert double plays and errors into runs based on Pete Palmer formulas found in the old Total Baseball encyclopedias.

Does it work?  Actually – yes.  It passes the eye ball test (Elvis Andrus, when you watch him, looks like an impressive fielder), and the system is comparable to other methodologies.  I’ve used this for about ten years, when I was first trying to rate fielders to make player cards for the old Superstar Baseball board game.

I try to remove biases for groundball/flyball tendencies, and for lefty/righty balls in play.  If there is one position where I am always concerned, it’s first base because much of that is based on the rest of the infield – so I essentially remove infield assists from the first baseman’s putout total.  Even with that, there is usually a greater range between the best and worst fielders.  However, after doing this for years, I have reached the conclusion that the reason for this has more to do with the fact that the worst fielders are, indeed, the least mobile athletes on the field and if you get someone at first base who is young and still fleet of foot, that person is going to make GOBS more plays than a big lumbering first baseman whose first move is to start heading to first to catch a throw on almost any ball hit to his right.

Mighty Casey generally doesn’t rank pitchers individually, but the best team in this regard was probably Cleveland.  Cleveland pitchers had a positive ratio of double plays to errors (19/13, where the league pitchers participated in 180 DPs and made 181 errors) and also handled about 5 chances more than the average team per 800 balls in play.  The worst was easily Detroit (17 DPs, 18 errors, 6.4 plays below average per 800 balls in play).

I also rank catchers differently, choosing to score them as a team.  There are seven categories for which a team of catchers could be graded:  ERA, Winning Percentage, SB%, Fielding Percentage on plays not including strikeouts, Mistakes per Game (passed balls, errors), Plays Made per Game (or Mobility), Other Assists per Game (not including Caught Stealing).  The catchers get a point for each category in which they are above the league average, and lose a point if below league average.  The highest score, theoretically, is seven and the lowest would be -7.  Nobody was that good, nor that bad.

Catcher:

Toronto had the best rankings, being above average in six categories and dead even on Mobility.  John Buck did the yeoman’s share of the work, but his backup Jose Molina was also exceptional against the run, tossing out 15 of 34 runners.  That being said, I don’t think that John Buck is the best catcher in the AL, it’s Joe Mauer.  But the rankings say that Toronto’s catchers held their own collectively.

Behind Toronto, the White Sox scored at positive four, failing only in mobility categories, and then a tie between Boston, Detroit, and Minnesota at positive three.

The worst catching was a toss up between three teams that all scored at -3: Seattle, Los Angeles, and Kansas City.

First Base:

For the first time in several years, the stats matched the reputation.  Mark Teixeira earns the nod, saving his team nearly 32 runs with his range and ability to avoid errors and turn double plays.  I was surprised at how good Ty Wigginton was, showing even better range, but then again – he’s an infielder moving over to first – and frequently those guys are used to straying as far as possible to get grounders where many first basemen will give up on balls to the right and let the second sacker get them while moving to first base.

I’m not totally certain that Teixeira would have won the award had Kendry Morales not gotten hurt.  Morales, in just 51 games, had a slightly higher range and was on pace to save just as many runs as Big Tex.  Two others who didn’t get 1000 innings at the position also scored well here – Kevin Youkilis and rookie Justin Smoak.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Mark Teixeira    1291.2    10.2    31.7
Ty Wigginton    787    12.5    18.7
Justin Smoak    807.2    10.3    17.5

The Dirty Brick goes to Cleveland’s Matt LaPorta, whose poor range didn’t help a season where his bat wasn’t very strong – negating half of the runs he created offensively.  The other two shouldn’t be a surprise.  Miguel Cabrera is looking less and less lean, and Mike Napoli is a catcher playing first.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Matt LaPorta    791.1    -13.5    -25.0
Miguel Cabrera    1285.1    -5.6    -19.9
Mike Napoli    586.1    -12.7    -19.2

Dishonorable mentions go out to Daric Barton, Justin Morneau (on pace to match LaPorta, but he missed half the season), and Paul Konerko…

Second Base:

Robinson Cano had an amazing year with the bat, and was equally strong with the glove.  His range factor was nearly 11 plays per 800 balls in play more than average, and he made just 3 errors while turning 114 double plays.  As such, he not only saved his team 26 runs just by eliminating hits, but he took more than seven more runs off the board by avoiding errors and helping with the DP – the most at his position by far.  Orlando Hudson provided value for Minnesota, and KC’s Mike Aviles returned and made a positive contribution with the bat and glove, too.  Regular leaders here, Ian Kinsler and Mark Ellis, fell back as both missed about 500 innings at the position due to injuries.  Honorable mention to Sean Rodriguez at Tampa who nearly made the list in just a half season of innings, and to Gordon Beckham who switched over from third and was solid for the White Sox.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Robinson Cano    1393.1    10.9    33.3
Orlando Hudson    1067    7.4    16.3
Mike Aviles    765.2    14.8    15.8

The Dirty Brick goes to a position switch as well – Seattle’s Chone Figgins.  He was a decided bust at second base, making 19 errors and making an adjusted 4.11 plays per nine – 11.9 plays fewer per 800 balls in play than the average second baseman.  Seattle signed him as a third baseman, switched him over to let Jose Lopez play third.  Thankfully, Lopez was fantastic over there – else it would have been a total loss…  Brian Roberts, a regular to the brick list, was abhorrant in a shade under 500 innings, 20 plays worse than the average second sacker per 800 balls in play, and Aaron Hill took his struggles at the plate with him to the field.  Dishonorable mentions to supposed glove man Chris Getz (-7 runs) and rookie Scott Sizemore (-11 runs in must 314 innings).  So much for replacing Placido Polanco…

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Chone Figgins    1417    -11.9    -33.3
Brian Roberts    498.1    -19.5    -17.1
Aaron Hill    1188    -6.1    -14.5

Third Base:

As poorly as Chone Figgins played second base for Seattle, converted third baseman Jose Lopez was a decided success.  His range was superior, and he didn’t disappoint in terms of errors or double plays.  Evan Longoria remained in the 30 runs saved range – a remarkable player, really – and Adrian Beltre continued to field his position remarkably well.  An honorable mention goes to the reluctantly converted Miguel Tejada, who had greater range than even Longoria, but played just 808 innings before being shipped out.  Nick Punto played an out shy of 345 innings there without making an error…

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Jose Lopez    1252.2    13.3    36.9
Evan Longoria    1330.2    8.7    31.1
Adrian Beltre    1342.2    6.6    19.0

The dirty brick goes to a part-timer, Royals infielder Wilson Betemit, who must have had ball repellant on him, making barely 2.2 plays per nine and having a range about 17 plays worse than the average player per 800 balls in play.  Another halftimer, Omar Vizquel got close to 600 unnecessary innings at third base for the White Sox – he’s an ancient shortstop who hadn’t played there for his entire career.  You want to know why the White Sox lost the division – look right here.  Of the regulars, Michael Young was, again, a lousy third baseman – but he did make improvement over last year.  No wonder he volunteered to be a DH.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Wilson Betemit    455.1    -16.9    -18.4
Omar Vizquel    582.1    -19.4    -17.4
Michael Young    1370.1    -3.3    -10.3

Shortstop:

Nobody was more surprised to see this than I, but Alexei Ramirez had a remarkable year at shortstop, showing great range – as good as he ever played.  He was one assist shy of 500 – a great season by any measurement.  Cliff Pennington helped out the young A’s staff by making his share of plays, and Elvis Andrus remained among the best fielders of his time.  Seattle’s Jack and Josh Wilson, if combined, saved Seattle more than 20 runs.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Alexei Ramirez    1376.2    12.8    32.1
Cliff Pennington   1304.2    12.0    26.9
Elvis Andrus    1291.1    10.3    26.0

At least the reigning gold glove winner didn’t finish last, but he did have the worst range amongst the regulars.  This year, Marco Scutaro’s 18 errors and only contributing to 57 double plays made up for making slightly more plays than Derek Jeter, who had just 6 errors and 94 double plays.  The 11 run swing gave the brick to Scutaro, who killed the Red Sox infield.  He’ll need to be replaced soon if the Sox want to be competitive.  Third place went to Jason Bartlett who no longer looks like the slick fielding shortstop he was before all the ankle injuries in 2009.  Thankfully for the Rays, they have other options for 2011.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Marco Scutaro    1166    -13.2    -32.0
Derek Jeter    1303.2    -15.0    -27.4
Jason Bartlett    1104    -8.9    -16.4

Left Field:

A centerfielder playing left who also had his best offensive season heading into free agency, the gold glove goes to the perennially amazing Carl Crawford.  Crawford was the only left fielder to save his team more than 10 runs, but only because the next closest guys played too few innings to save enough runs.  Only three left fielders played 1000 innings there in 2010.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Carl Crawford    1260.1    4.2    13.1
Michael Saunders   647.2    6.3    9.6
Alex Gordon    486.1    7.6    9.0

One of those three was Dirty Brick winner Delmon Young, who abused left field until he cost the Twins 25 runs out there.  At least he found his bat last year…  Fred Lewis played a disinterested left field for Toronto, and Daniel Nava was the Boston representative of the list of bad outfielders who played between 200 and 500 innings in the AL.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Delmon Young    1277.2    -8.5    -25.0
Fred Lewis    726.1    -7.8    -13.2
Daniel Nava    380    -12.9    -10.4

Center Field:

The Angels are rightfully excited about the defensive capabilities of their new centerfielder, Peter Bourjos.  The man can fly – reminding you of a young Gary Pettis.  He can throw, too – ten assists in what amounts to a third of a season in the field.  This allows Los Angeles to move Torii Hunter, who is now a slightly below average centerfielder to right (where he was really good), and makes room for another below average centerfielder, Vernon Wells, to move to left.  As it was, there isn’t a whole lot of difference amongst the starting centerfielders, except for Bourjos, in terms of overall range.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Peter Bourjos    449.2    12.0    12.4
Adam Jones    1298.1    2.9    7.9
Alex Rios    1246.2    2.8    7.1

The Dirty Brick goes to a guy whose body and game are falling apart, and that’s Grady Sizemore.  One hopes he can heal and start to put his career back in the right direction, but it’s probably going to have to be at a different position.  Sadly, his replacement (Brantley) doesn’t look much better, and among those who played at least 1000 innings, Vernon Wells, who was healthier than in recent seasons, is still the worst of the lot (costing his team about 7.5 runs).  Thankfully, he’s done as a centerfielder.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Grady Sizemore    269.2    -17.5    -11.2
Michael Brantley562.2    -6.9    -9.4
Gregor Blanco    347    -11.2    -8.4

Right Field:

For the second year in a row, Nelson Cruz was a remarkable outfielder, though he threw hardly anybody out from right.  I was surprised to see how well Nick Swisher did, but that could be because opponents may allow more lefties to bat in the new Yankee Stadium.  Honorable mention to Ben Zobrist, who has to play everywhere but looked solid enough in right.  I wonder if there isn’t some form of statistical bias in Texas, though, as even Vlad Guerrero showed up as above average in his 118.2 innings there.  Not WAY above average, but slightly.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Nelson Cruz    799.1    15.2    25.9
Nick Swisher    1102    6.1    14.5
Jason Repko    226    16.4    9.3

The Dirty Brick goes to the surprise hammer of the league – Jose Bautista, followed by a bunch of guys who are either ill-suited for the outfield, aging, our out of position (David DeJesus).  The worst right fielder who played at least 1000 innings was Shin-Soo Choo, who barely edged out the immobile Nick Markakis and the aging J.D. Drew, and were all between -7.02 and -7.17 runs in the wrong direction.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Jose Bautista    982.2    -6.8    -14.6
Carlos Quentin    897    -5.3    -13.6
Bobby Abreu    805.2    -3.4    -7.9

2010 Season Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates

Last Five Years:
2009: 62 – 99 (6th, NL Central)
2008: 67 – 95
2007: 68 – 94
2006: 67 – 95
2005: 67 – 95

The Pirates won 79 games in 1997, which is the closest they have come to a winning season since 1992.

Runs Scored: 636 (Last, NL)
Runs Allowed: 768 (12th, NL)

Season Recap:

While we could hope that the Pirates would finally break the streak of losing seasons, most people figured that getting past 70 wins for the first time since 2004 would be an improvement…

Actually, the Pirates got out in front with decent April pitching.  After sweeping Florida and taking two from San Diego, Pittsburgh stood at 11 – 7.  Unfortunately, such heady days ended quickly as the Pirates went on to lose 14 of 17 as the offense stopped scoring any runs.  To their credit, the Pirates came back and had a winning June and on the 27th, the Pirates had gotten to within four games of .500

At this point, the Pirates sold out.  Nate McLouth was traded to Atlanta for a couple of prospects.  Nyjer Morgan went to Washington for Lastings Milledge (not sure why, either), Jack Wilson was sent to Seattle with a struggling Ian Snell.  Freddy Sanchez was packaged to San Francisco, and even former ace Tom Gorzelanny was shipped to Chicago with reliever John Grabow.

So, a team that actually was playing pretty well collapsed while testing a bunch of new guys, mixing in a variety of losing streaks between four and nine games long until they were fighting off the possibility of losing 100 games.  The Pirates lost 60 of their last 87 games.  Personally, I don’t know why the Pirates would want to ruin their season that way, but that’s just me.

Pitching:

Unlike Cincinnati, who had a few guys log a lot of innings but not one who was even SLIGHTLY above league average, the Pirates had a couple of decent arms.  Ross Ohlendorf got rolling down the stretch to win 11 games and save his team about seven extra runs in his 177 innings.  Zach Duke, usually a disappointment, logged 213 decent innings, walking just 49 guys, and edging nearly four runs better than the average guy.  Teams need Zach Dukes.  The Pirates wanted him to be an ace, which he is not, but Duke isn’t a problem.  Charlie Morton came over from Atlanta and was tolerable in his 18 starts.  Paul Maholm logged nearly 195 innings and wasn’t death.  Sometimes he looked pretty good.

What strikes you, however, in looking at the Pirates staff is the lack of a POWER arm.  Who on the staff strikes out a batter per inning?  Heck – who strikes out six per nine?  Nobody.  The closest thing the Pirates have to a live arm is Evan Meek, who had 42 Ks in 47 innings out of the pen, but his control keeps him from being a real stopper.  If you look at the guys who logged at least, say, 60 innings, you have nobody that blows you away.  The leader in strikeouts was Maholm with just 119.

Anyway – let’s look at what the Pirate rotation is going forward.  Maholm is back, as is Ohlendorf and Duke.  A full year of Charlie Morton – assuming he stays near league average as he did last year and doesn’t take a step back – will be better than what Ian Snell did last year (2 – 8, 5.36).  That leaves the fifth spot up for grabs.  Kevin Hart, acquired from Chicago for John Grabow, was miserable in his ten starts last year (1 – 8, 6.92) but really isn’t that bad.  Personally, I’d like to see Daniel McCutchen get a shot.  He got six decent starts down the stretch after going 13 – 6 with a 3.47 ERA and just 29 walks in 142.2 innings at Indianapolis.  He HAS to be better than what Kevin Hart did last year.

The Pirates are auditioning a ton of castoffs with Non-Roster Invites – a scary list of guys like Brian Burres, Jeff Karstens, Tyler Yates, and Jeremy Powell.  I don’t see any of these guys getting jobs other than those available in, say, Indianapolis.

The bullpen will be different.  After a rough year of Matt Capps, the Pirates signed Octavio Dotel to be the new closer.  Dotel has been a premium set up man, but as a closer he’s never really been up to the task – and that scares me.  Brendan Donnelly was signed (turns 39 on July 4th) to join Joel Hanrahan (my pick as future closer), Evan Meek, and Donnie Veal in the pen.  This is an eclectic mix of arms that I think improves if Kevin Hart is added to long relief and McCutchen is put in the rotation.

On the whole, however, I do see an improvement.  My take on it is that the starting rotation should be 20 runs better than last year.  It’s not enough.  They need a real ace to step forward – and Ohlendorf may be that guy – someone who is 20 – 30 runs above the league.  And to be really competitive, they need two.  I don’t see two of them here.  I see five guys who are within ten runs of league average over 200 innings – a bunch of third and fourth starters.

The bullpen may be better if only some of the guys logging innings (Jeff Karstens, Virgil Vasquez, and Chris Bootcheck) won’t be there.  But I don’t have strong faith that the eighth and ninth innings will be solid.  Let’s call it a wash.

Catching:

A full season of Ryan Doumit would help.  Doumit missed half the season, forcing Jason Jaramillo, not an offensive force, into the lineup.  Doumit is a middle of the order guy and could add 20 runs by hanging around for 130 games this year.  Defensively, this isn’t a strong group, being below average in team numbers (ERA, W-L PCT), fielding percentage, and being slightly mistake prone.  I’m not sure that Doumit will improve these numbers, but he’s the best Pirate against the running game and makes fewer mistakes than Robinson Diaz – who is NOT ready for the big leagues.

Infield:

Adam LaRoche is also gone – forgot to mention him in the selloff comment.  In his place might be Garrett Jones, who showed his slugging skills and wasn’t embarrassing at first base.  I don’t know that he’s going to be a huge step forward from LaRoche defensively, but you never know.  Jones hit 21 homers in 82 games – and a full season of that would be a huge step forward.  If not Jones, the Pirates may try Seattle prospect Jeff Clement there.  Clement has, at times, looked like the real deal in the minors but hasn’t put it all together in the bigs.  The Pirates would make immediate and big improvements if they would just move 2008 first round pick Pedro Alvarez here and call it good.

After Freddy Sanchez left, Delwyn Young took over and was a step back offensively and defensively.  Sanchez was creating about 5.5 runs per 27 outs; Young about 4.3.  Sanchez has slightly below average range (-3.9 plays per 800 balls in play), but Young was brutal (-10.2 per 800 balls in play).  To solve this problem, the Pirates picked up former Tampa Ray Akinora Iwamura.  Iwamura should be more like Sanchez in terms of range and batting.  Not playing Young is worth ten runs of offense.

Jack Wilson is gone and Ronny Cedeno is now the new shortstop.  Cedeno is a better fielder than Wilson these days – which could be worth ten runs over the course of a season – and was pretty much the same hitter.  Bobby Crosby arrives looking for a chance to play, but he’ll likely be a bench player for now.

Andy LaRoche finally got a shot at third base in the big leagues and proved to be a fantastic glove, but a league average hitter.  I like his chances of improving at the plate, however, now that he has a full season under his belt.

Looking forward, I see this team being about twenty runs better offensively and perhaps another twenty better defensively.  Unless, of course, Jeff Clement gets more playing time.  My fear is, in looking at the current depth chart, that Clement is going to get every chance at making the starting lineup.  If this happens, I’d go with no offensive improvement and only ten runs better defensively.

Outfield:

Wouldn’t it have been fun to see an outfield of, say, Jason Bay in left, Andrew McCutchen in center, and Nate McLouth in right?

Instead, McCutchen arrives as the full-time centerfielder.  He was a bit rough in the outfield last year, but he’ll be better – and he showed power, patience, and speed as an offensive force.  I like him a LOT.  And the other two guys are gone.

Garrett Jones will likely start in right field, which will be better than Brandon Moss offensively – but likely ten runs worse (or more) defensively.  Ryan Church is around, as is Moss.  Church used to be good until two nasty concussions clipped his 2008 season and likely affected his 2009 season.

In left, expect Lastings Milledge to get one last shot to make things work.  Milledge, to me, is the new Delmon Young.  He SHOULD be better, but is really nothing special.  Moss and Nyjer Morgan were great defenders and will be missed with this outfield.

I see the outfield being down this year – perhaps ten to twenty runs down offensively and twenty runs defensively.  If Milledge lives up to former top prospect expectations, it would help.  I just don’t buy it.

Prospects:

Well, the top pitchers in AAA (McCutchen, Morton, Vaszquez) are already in town.  Even Denny Bautista and Steven Jackson were given shots and didn’t take the world by storm.  The top AAA hitters are in Pittsburgh now, too.

Pedro Alvarez tore up AA playing for the Altoona Curve, hitting .333 with power.  He really needs to be on the Pirates now.  Gorkys Hernandez has great speed, and is 22 – but he needs to improve his OBP.  Jose Tabata, 21, is close to making it – he hit well enough at Altoona to get moved up to Indianapolis.  Not much power, better OBP than Hernandez with good contact skills, and decent speed.  Just not sure he’ll be better than a fourth outfielder at this point.  I think he can play some, though.  If Ryan Church doesn’t stay healthy, Tabata will get a shot.

The best pitchers at Altoona was probably Brad Lincoln (some power, good control) but it was the only time he looked solid since being drafted out of the University of Houston in the first round (2006).  He shares a birthday with the author, though, so he’s on my radar…  Former first round pick Daniel Moskos (2007) has control, but doesn’t blow people away – 77Ks in 149 innings.

Moving to Lynchburg, top picks Jordy Mercer (3rd Round, 2008) and Chase D’Arnaud (4th Round, 2008) started to show signs of progress.  Mercer might develop some power, while D’Arnaud seems to have a more well rounded game.  Both outhit Alvarez at A+ ball, but neither are REALLY better hitters…  You’ll see that when they get to AA.

On the whole, it’s hard to see who is going to help the Pirates, other than Alvarez, in the next year or two.

Outlook:

If the Pirates were serious about this, they’d get Jones in the outfield, move Alvarez to first base and play him now, and let both McCutchens play as often as possible.  This isn’t going to happen this spring, and as such, the Pirates have to hope for minor improvements.  I see the team scoring about 670 runs and allowing 740.  That gets them to 73 wins, which would look great compared to the last five years.  However, with the Reds and Brewers likely improving – it might not get to 73.  It might barely get to 70…

Top NL Shortstops in 2009

Hanley Ramirez (FLA):  Not great defensively, but an amazingly good hitter and the whole package makes him the best shortstop in baseball.  More patient than ever, has solid power and can still run the bases.  Go look at his minor league stats and tell me if you can see this coming.  I still think Miguel Cabrera is the best player ever to wear the Marlins uniform, but it might be Hanley.  (126.9 Runs Created, -6.24 Runs Saved = 120.63 Total Run Production)

Miguel Tejada (HOU):  Still a remarkably productive hitter despite not drawing any walks.  Hardly misses a game, had a decent year in the field (Blum can’t cut off anything) – now heading back to Baltimore and moving to third base.  (104.1 Runs Created, -2.0 Runs Saved = 102.07 Total Run Production)

There was a time when I was a big Tejada fan.  Now, not so much.  The Astros wanted him to move to third base and had he done that the Astros would have been probably 30 runs better because Keppinger would have been the full time shortstop.  (That being said, Keppinger should have been the full time third baseman.)  He lied about his age.  He was incriminated by Rafael Palmeiro – and if you look at it – I absolutely believe that Tejada was juicing.  He was in Oakland, one of the two centers of PED abuse (the other being Texas, but only because Canseco brought the practice with him from Oakland to Texas).  His power numbers have fallen off the further away from his PED use he’s gotten.  He does what he thinks is right and not what the manager wants.  Nobody has come right out and said it, but there’s no way he’s a role model for anybody.

Troy Tulowitzki (COL):  Even considering he played in Colorado, Tulo’s offense was great – good power, good patience, good baserunning, almost hit .300.  His fielding isn’t what it was a few years ago when he came up, but if he puts 100 runs on the board, nobody will complain.  (106.0 Runs Created, -6.6 Runs Saved = 99.43 Total Run Production)

Yunel Escobar (ATL):  I see a lot of him being a Marlins fan and boy is this guy good.  He’s no Ramirez, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits .320 with 20 homers one day.  I hope he’s on my fantasy team when he does it.  I look for that season in 2011, but it could be this year.  92.9 Runs Created, 3.4 Runs Saved = 96.24 Total Run Production)

Rafael Furcal (LAD):  A near healthy season – his batting average isn’t what it once was, and he doesn’t tear up the bases like he used to, and he can’t field the way he once did…  His arm is still a cannon.  He’s pretty much a league average starter now and slightly above average for his position.  (85.7 Runs Created, 3.5 Runs Saved = 89.17 Total Run Production)

Ryan Theriot (CHC):  Doesn’t hit for enough power to move up this list, but still  a fine shortstop.  The Cubs should be glad to have him.  (75.8 Runs Created, 8.5 Runs Saved = 84.27 Total Run Production)

Brendan Ryan (STL):  I liked him a couple of years ago, but he was better than I had thought he’d be in 2009.  Hit enough and played the position supurbly.  Didn’t get enough credit for helping the Cardinals make it to the top of the NL Central.  (58.5 Runs Created, 21.2 Runs Saved = 79.71 Total Run Production)

Everth Cabrera (SD):  Brendan Ryan with a bit more speed.  He’s an old school #2 hitter – would be nice if he could step up with about 15% more offense.  That means finding more ways to get on base because he has little, if any, power.  (59.1 Runs Created, 13.7 Runs Saved = 72.81 Total Run Production)

Stephen Drew (ARI):  Isn’t horrible, but I can’t help but think he’s kind of a disappointment.  Hits for a little power, gets on base some – doesn’t kill you with the glove.  You don’t hear about him because he plays in Arizona and they aren’t all that good right now, but he’s not all that noticeable either.  (68.2 Runs Created, -3.67 Runs Saved = 64.56 Total Run Production)

Jimmy Rollins (PHI):  Phillie fans are going to be surprised at this rating, but despite the power and base stealing, what did he do?  I know – Rollins got the gold glove.  But did ANYBODY look at the stats?  Like Derek Jeter, his reputation was bigger than his range – he had the WORST range of anyone playing 300 innings at the position – except for the ancient Edgar Renteria.  When you adjust for the staff (balls in play, groundball/fly ball) Rollins is dead last.  He also didn’t get on base.  When he’s on – he can explode offensively, but he is NOT a valuable commodity anymore.  Would I rather have Everth Cabrera these days than Jimmy Rollins?  Yes.  Yes, I would.  (88.5 Runs Created, -26.07 Runs Saved = 62.42 Total Run Production)

Cristian Guzman (WAS):  Only his batting average is worth anything.  Range is gone, speed is gone, and he has little power or patience at the plate.  I’d play Ian Desmond.  (63.9 Runs Created, -10.2 Runs Saved = 53.73 Total Run Production)

J.J. Hardy (MIL):  Gone – now the job belongs to Alcides Escobar.  He’s not horrible, but it would be nice if he could find his bat again.  I promise you he’ll be playing for two or three more years and is NOT the new Dale Sveum.  (47.9 Runs Created, 3.9 Runs Saved = 51.74 Total Run Production)

Alcides Escobar got his first taste of the big leagues and looked great.  Good range, decent enough bat.  At 500 at bats and 140 games, he’s moving into the top seven and if he’s all that, he’s a big step up from Hardy.

Paul Janish (CIN):  Can’t hit a lick (.211, with little power or patience) but had amazing defensive stats.  The new John McDonald?  (23.7 Runs Created, 24.73 Runs Saved = 48.46 Total Run Production)

Jack Wilson (PIT/SEA):  I know – great glove.  However, he’s gettin older, missing time, and isn’t much of an offensive force.  Tell me again how this helps the Mariners in the long run?  (39.8 Runs Created, 7.6 Runs Saved = 47.40 Total Run Production)

Edgar Renteria (SF):  Had a better year with the glove than normal, but still below average.  Not much offensively anymore either.  And yet, he has a job in San Francisco.  Reason #3 that the team won’t make the playoffs.  (46.9 Runs Created, -6.7 Runs Saved = 40.29 Total Run Production)

Jeff Keppinger (HOU):  Most of the time, he played third base behind Blum but he can still play short.  If he played full time, he’s at least as good as Guzman and maybe as productive (overall) as Rollins or Drew.   In 2010, he might get more innings there – the MLB depth chart lists rookie Tommy Manzello as the potential starter.  Manzello has little power, isn’t a huge on base guy – but if he can field at all he’s a Jack Wilson clone. (39.4 Runs Created, 0.7 Runs Saved = 40.07 Total Run Production)

Ronny Cedeno (PIT):  No hit, decent glove, utility infield type.  Not going to impact Pittsburgh other than he’s playing because nobody else is ready.  31.0 Runs Created, 7.3 Runs Saved = 38.3 Total Run Production)

Alex Cora (NYM):  Broke BOTH thumbs.  Now THAT’S a bad break.  He’s really not a half-bad player and most teams would love to have him as their shortstop.  (29.2 Runs Created, 7.6 Runs Saved = 36.78 Total Run Production)

Alex Gonzalez (CIN/BOS):  Age and injuries have sapped his range – he was never that good with the bat.  It was a good run, though.  Orlando Cabrera has the job now and he’s a serious step up over what Cincy threw out there in 2009. (39.9 Runs Created, -12.3 Runs Saved = 27.6 Total Run Production)

Jose Reyes (NYM):  Obviously a better player than this, but his bum wheels affected his range and he didn’t play into the summer.  If healthy, he’s top six for sure.  (23.6 Runs Created, -6.3 Runs Saved = 17.26 Total Run Production)

Top AL Shortstops in 2009

Derek Jeter (NYY):  Dog his defense, but the guy produces runs.  Jeter gets on base, occasionally swats for power, runs the bases well, and despite his well below average range, ranks as the best shorstop in the AL.  And he’s the oldest guy at the position.  Enjoy it while it lasts.  (128.9 Runs Produced, -14.2 Runs Saved = 114.67 Total Run Production)

Jason Bartlett (TB):  His ankle cut into his defensive range – where in 2008 he was WELL above average, he was slightly below average in 2009.  On the other hand, he hit .320 and smacked 14 homers and looked like a poor man’s Derek Jeter.  A very valuable player.  (102.6 Runs Created, -8.7 Runs Saved = 94.00 Total Run Production)

Elvis Andrus (TEX):  As a rookie, he was tolerable offensively – just six homers, a .267 bat, and not too many walks.  He did help by stealing bases – 33 of them.  But Andrus was the best infield glove imaginable.  If he can show growth as a hitter and keep his enormous advantage defensively, we’re talking about a young Omar Vizquel here.  Jeter was worth double the offense, but Andrus made up nearly 45 runs with the glove.  (62.6 Runs Created, 30.8 Runs Saved = 93.38 Total Run Production)

Marco Scutaro (TOR):  Had a season that was just out of whack with his career and turned it into a nice paycheck from Boston.  The big improvement was plate discipline, but he also added power (12 more doubles, 5 more homers) and ran more often.  He’s better than what Boston had the last couple of years, but I won’t be surprised if he falls back to the middle of the pack in 2010.  (96.0 Runs Created, -6.5 Runs Saved = 89.54 Total Run Production)

The guy slated to take Scutaro’s slot is Alex Gonzalez – who has lost a step, doesn’t get on base, barely hits .250 with middling power, and won’t be here when the season is over, I bet.  John McDonald, a good glove and three years older than A-Gone, will back him up.  If Tyler Pastornicky or Ryan Goins are legitimate prospects, there is nothing in their path to get to the majors…

Erick Aybar (LAA):  Good batting average and a few doubles and a plus fielder.  Would like a little more patience at the plate, but you can live with the total package at this level.  Does he have another notch to climb?  (77.9 Runs Created, 11.1 Runs Saved = 88.94 Total Run Production)

Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE):  A slight shade better offensively than Aybar – but essentially the same guy.  But, he’s not in Aybar’s league as a fielder (few are).  Like Aybar, is still young enough to take a step forward.  (94.0 Runs Created, -5.5 Runs Saved, 88.55 Total Run Production)

Orlando Cabrera (OAK/MIN):  Played well enough in Oakland – then moved to Minnesota to finish the season and fill a void there.  Now with Cincinnati – Cabrera is a valuable commodity.  He’s not the great hitter anymore, but he still can field well enough.  He’s NOT a franchise changer, but he still has skills.  J.J. Hardy has the job now, and he won’t be this good. (83.1 Runs Created, 4.4 Runs Saved, 87.50 Total Run Production)

Adam Kennedy would be listed here…  He’s not a shortstop but played a lot of innings all over the infield for Oakland…

Alexei Ramirez (CWS):  He’s got some pop in the bat, and his glove isn’t horrible but not top notch.  The Sox don’t have a better option at this point, but Ramirez could easily play a few more games and fill out his stats.  For example – he had 15 homers, but just 14 doubles…  14/19 as a basestealer, too.  He could sneak up the list in 2010.  (71.7 Runs Created, -6 Runs Saved = 65.66 Total Run Production)

Jack Wilson (SEA):  Came over from Pittsburgh – a decent glove who occasionally contributes with the bat.  If he’s healthy, he’ll be better than Betancourt – but that’s not saying much these days.  (44.2 Runs Created, 13.2 Runs Saved = 57.6 Total Run Production)

Cesar Izturis (BAL):  Great glove, no hit guy in the tradition of Mark Belanger.  (38.6 Runs Created, 15.7 Runs Saved = 54.25 Total Run Production)

Yuniesky Betancourt (KC):  Seattle discarded Betancourt after a rather disinterested start; the Royals got a bit more of the same.  (45.4 Runs Created, 3.17 Runs Saved = 48.57 Total Run Production

Cliff Pennington (OAK):  Took over when Cabrera was moved out, Pennington hit better and held his own as a fielder.  I think he could hold the job regularly and contribute to wins for the A’s, but I can’t tell if Oakland agrees with me.  He’s better than Betancourt – just didn’t play enough to rate higher.  (31.5 Runs Created, 5.5 Runs Saved = 36.96 Total Run Production)

Ramon Santiago or Adam Everett (DET):  Combined, weren’t worth 60 runs.  Everett lost his range and his bat.  Santiago is a step ahead of Everett at this point.  If this is Detroit’s idea of being competitive for 2010, I don’t see it.  A full season of Santiago wouldn’t be as good as Alexei Ramirez production…  (It’s better than a full year of Adam Everett, but that’s not saying much.)

Nick Green (BOS):  The guy with the most innings and the highest rating (a lot of ugly numbers) – the job now belongs to Marco Scutaro.

Coghlan, Bailey Earn Rookie of Year Honors… Other News…

Nice to be back after a long weekend camping near Lake Okeechobee with my son – a boys weekend and a good time.  In retrospect, we probably should have stayed longer and fished more on Sunday morning, so next time that will be the plan…

Coghlan wins NL MVP…

Beating out a good crowd, including Andrew McCutchen and J.A. Happ, Florida Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan won the NL Rookie of the Year Award.  He’s the third Fish to win, following Dontrelle Willis and Hanley Ramirez.  Keith Law was interviewed on ESPN Radio last night and said that the Marlins are going to have ROY candidates every year because they need to integrate young players onto the roster more regularly than other teams – a fair assessment.  At the same time, Coghlan deserved it.

I don’t know if you have ever seen him play, but he’s got to be the quietest hitter you’ll ever see.  There is little wasted motion.  He gets in his set position and hardly moves until he whips his bat around to tattoo a pitch.  He strikes me as a Todd Walker, Chuck Knobloch type, someone who can be valuable at the top of the order for a few years and then maybe last forever as a utility player/pinch hitter type.  Having seen him play, though, (and admittedly as a Marlins fan) I’d love for him to take another step forward.  To do that, he’d have to add a little power and keep his speed.  I don’t know that it’s possible, but even if he stays the way he is right now (and Coghlan finished the season with about 80 hits in the last two months alone – singles and doubles all over the place and two hits nearly every night), he’ll be a good one for a long time.

In the NL, there were several really good candidates.  Andrew McCutchen could be a Curtis Granderson type – but as a rookie, he wasn’t any more impressive than Coughlin.  Tommy Hanson was a very good pitcher for Atlanta, as was Happ for Philadelphia, and Randy Wells for Chicago.  Of the three, I think Hanson has the best chance for long-term success, but I’d be happy with Wells in my rotation for the next ten years, too.  It’ll be fun to see where they wind up in 2012.

Andrew Bailey Takes AL Rookie Hardware…

In the AL, a closer won the Rookie of the Year award, Oakland’s Andrew Bailey.  Bailey was impressive – 26 saves in 30 chances, a solid ERA and opposing batting average.  Certainly, Bailey had the credentials for the award.  Other rookies were equally solid – Brett Anderson (Oakland starter), Rick Porcello – who could be a good pitcher for a long, long time, and (my choice), Elvis Andrus.  Andrus was an amazing fielder and had as much to do with the success of his team as anyone.  If he continues to improve as a hitter, Andrus will be an all-star for a long time.  Andrus got robbed twice this year – once by Derek Jeter for a Gold Glove and now this…

Hot Stove News…

Ramon Hernandez will be back with the Reds, signing a one year, $3 million deal with an option for 2011 tied to games played (and collecting a $1 million buy out).  The Reds had declined his $8 million option…  [ESPN]

Ben Sheets says he will be ready for spring training.  Any takers?  According to ESPN, there will be interest, for sure, even though he’s had five arm related DL trips and a case of vertigo…   (I’d love to find out, personally – can the Marlins sign him to a one year, incentive laden deal???)  [ESPN]

Speaking of Milwaukee, the Brewers declined Braden Looper’s option worth $6.5 million (not a bad price for a league average – at best – pitcher), and paid Looper $1 million in a buy out.  Looper will join the list of more than 150 free agents…  [FoxSports]

Jack Wilson signed a two-year, $10 million deal to stay in Seattle – which the pitchers will appreciate…  [ESPN]

FoxSports says that free agent Pedro Martinez had so much fun in Philadelphia, and feels so good, that he wants to play all of 2010.  Philadelphia, LA, and Chicago are expected to be suitors…  [FoxSports]

Another Phillie chose to become a free agent…  Eric Bruntlett declined a minor league contract offer from Philadelphia.  [SI]

Colorado declined a $5 million option on Rafael Betancourt, but are still trying to work something out with the setup man.  [FoxSports]

Think about it…

FoxSports Bob Klapisch talks about the Yankees and contract options regarding Derek Jeter.  I think it’s a good read…

One of my favorite writers, SI’s Joe Posnanski, picks four players who deserve Hall of Fame plaques.  Tell me if you agree with him…

Happy Birthday! Tom Seaver hits 65.  I can’t believe he’s that old – I can still see him zinging pitches past the Cubs hitters of the 1970s.  (Except that one that Burt Hooten hit off him for a Grand Slam…)

Others celebrating with cake, cards, or rememberances include:  George Stallings  (1867) – a fantastic manager who may become my next biography topic, “The Big Bear” Mike Garcia (1923), Jim Brewer (1937), Dave Frost (1952), Mitch Williams (1964), Jeff Nelson (1966), Eli Marrero (1973), Ryan Braun (1983), and Nick Markakis (1983).

Afterthoughts…

Wally Backman, whose post playing career has been rather problematic, has a job managing Brooklyn – a minor league outpost for the Mets – in 2010.  [ESPN]