2010 Season Forecast: Baltimore Orioles

Posted on April 3, 2010 by Paul Proia

Last Five Years:

2009: 63 – 98 (5th AL East)
2008: 68 – 93
2007: 69 – 93
2006: 70 – 92
2005: 74 – 88

The Baltimore Orioles have had a worse record each year since winning 78 games in 2004 and haven’t posted a winning season since 1997, when they won 98 games. What in the name of Earl Weaver is going on here???

Runs Scored: 741 (11th, AL)
Runs Allowed: 876 (Last, AL)

Season Recap:

Another year of rebuilding, another year of trying out prospects, and another year of being battered in road games, where the Orioles were 25 – 56. Ouch.

Despite this, the Orioles are starting to show signs that they are accumulating the type of talent that will make them competitive – which would be good enough in the AL Central, but not in the AL East.

Just looking at the monthly splits, the team batted pretty well all year but had power surges in May and August. What really happened was that the team slugged enough to help the pitchers in the beginning of the season, but the pitching really left them after the all-star break. The team ERA was a tolerable 4.55 in July when the Orioles were off – winning just 9 of 25 decisions. Then it went to 5.30 in August as Baltimore lost 20 of 30 games, and finished at 6.22 (!) in September when the team lost 20 of 26 decisions. Were it not for a four game winning streak in October, the Orioles would have lost 100 games.

So – looking ahead quickly, the Orioles need to figure out how to make up for a 135 run gap between offense and defense that would allow them to get to .500.

Pitching:

Jeremy Guthrie, who would look good on most teams, got to 200 innings in his 33 starts and wasn’t horrible despite his 10 – 17 record. He’s not a league average pitcher in part because he doesn’t strike out enough batters – just 110 on the season.

The rest of the rotation struggled. Rich Hill, brought in as sort of a reclamation project, gave the Orioles 13 awful starts (7.80 ERA), David Hernandez was called up for 19 starts that were a bit better, but he was whacked around to a 4 – 10 record. Koji Uehara started off okay, but went down to a shoulder injury. Prospect Jason Berken didn’t look ready – 24 starts and a 6.54 ERA. Adam Eaton was added to the rotation and was predictably awful (2 – 5, 8.56). Mark Hendrickson was allowed to start 11 times but was better in relief.

However, Brad Bergesen came up and won 7 of 12 decisions, and saved his team 16 runs over 123.1 innings. Brian Matusz was given 8 starts and was league average, winning five of seven decisions. Chris Tillman wasn’t awful.

The bullpen had George Sherrill‘s 20 saves and a solid 2.40 ERA, but shipped him to Los Angeles, putting Jim Johnson in the closer position where he was barely tolerable – not necessarily helping down the stretch. Danys Baez gave the Orioles 72 decent innings. Brian Bass was asked to work a lot of long relief.

Working against those four were Matt Albers (5.51 ERA), former closer Chris Ray (7.27 ERA) and a few other small time tryouts.

Looking ahead to 2010, the Orioles have to start by finding 400 better innings of pitching. Kevin Millwood was acquired from Texas – Millwood was solid for five months and if he can keep his ERA under 4.50, would represent a 40 run improvement over 2009. Guthrie gets the second spot, and Bergesen and Matusz will get more starts. If they stay healthy and make 30 starts, that’s another 40 runs better. Chris Tillman is expected to be a prize – and certainly will be better than eight Adam Eaton starts.

So, a realist sees the potential to make up at least 60 runs on last year, and an optimist might see 100 runs of improvement.

The bullpen adds former Braves reliever Mike Gonzalez to the closer spot. Gonzalez CAN be a good closer, and he CAN be a bit inconsistent. Still, adding the healthy arm to the mix will be a step up. Former Padre Cla Meredith will also help out, taking on the Baez innings. Will Ohman comes over from the NL – and I would rather see him than, say, Matt Albers, who is still around and on the active roster as of 4/1.

I don’t see the bullpen being that much better than last year – and certainly nowhere near as deep as the top three teams in the division.

Catching:

Matt Wieters is here – the cover of Sports Illustrated in March – and could EXPLODE on the scene and make the all-star team. Wieters didn’t disappoint as a rookie, showing a little power and hitting .288. He represents a step up over Chad Moeller and Greg Zaun, and has far more upside. The new back up is Craig Tatum. Wieters does need to improve is caught stealing rate (barely league average) but is more mobile and made fewer mistakes per game than the two veterans in 2009.

Infield:

Last year, Aubrey Huff was merely ordinary and not producing at the rate the Orioles had hoped – just 13 – 72 – .253. First baseman are supposed to create 100 runs of offense, and Huff was responsible for just 55. Michael Aubrey and Garrett Atkins are around now. Aubrey is an oft-injured Indian farm hand who was stuck behind Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez (among others), but could be a surprise performer. Atkins has been in decline for a few years and when asked to backup Todd Helton at first looked awkward. I’d rather play Aubrey and keep Atkins on the bench.

Brian Roberts remains a remarkably productive offensive force at the top of the lineup, but his bad back is affecting his already below average range. The Orioles don’t really have another choice (Robert Andino could field it, but not hit), so they have to hope that Roberts can keep his back loose and mobile.

At short, Cesar Izturis provided a great glove with no bat in the mold of Mark Belanger – hitting .253 with no power and, even worse, drawing just 18 walks in 114 games. At least he keeps the pitchers happy.

Melvin Mora looked very old last year – only eight homers, and barely generating 50 runs of offense. In his place, the Orioles are returning former Oriole Miguel Tejada (who is older than Mora) to play third. Tejada had a solid season at short for Houston last year, but agreed to the move here. Mora is usually pretty solid defensively, but Tejada could be his match and will certainly provide a bit more offense.

Looking at this pragmatically, and assuming Michael Aubrey gets the first shot at first base, there could be 30 more runs here (35 more at third, 15 more at first, offset by a potential decline at second base). If Atkins plays, it’s probably only 15 runs better than last year, and that’s offset by Atkins bungling the position defensively, too.

Outfield:

With Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Felix Pie or Nolan Reimold, the Orioles have a pretty productive group here.

Markakis is a dependable source of hits and runs, though his range isn’t enough to make up for his rocket arm. I do believe, however, that this will be his breakout offensive season. Jones needs to play 150 games, and if he does, will make a run at 20 – 20, if not 30 – 30. Pie can field any of the three positions and isn’t a problem with the bat, though he’s not a well rounded hitter. However, Nolan Reimold showed power and patience and if given 500 at bats, might hit 25 homers. Fifth outfielder Luke Scott gets to be the DH – a power source from the left side of the plate, though he needs a platoon partner.

Looking ahead, I see no reason that this group can’t find 50 more runs of offense by (a) staying in the lineup, and (b) continuing to show progress.

Bench:

Robert Andino and Garrett Atkins in the infield and Felix Pie in the outfield are joined by super sub Ty Wiggington, who could also be a regular first baseman and help the club. Luis Montanez gets to be an extra outfielder when needed.

Prospects:

The best guy not already listed above that played at AAA Norfolk might be second baseman Justin Turner. Turner hit .300 with a .362 OBP and has tolerable speed. He’s NOT as good as Brian Roberts, but if he is forced to play, I think he will outhit Andino and might surprise you with how good a fielder he is. He’s certainly better with the glove than Roberts at this stage. Turner is a Cal State Fullerton grad, and a former Reds draft pick (7th Round, 2006).

The best pitchers in Norfolk were Chris Tillman and David Hernandez, who had solid runs and shots with the parent club last year. Another option is reliever Kam Mickolio. They all have the tools, they just need to put things together, which isn’t as easy as it looks – especially in the AL East.

A couple of Bowie Baysox (AA) pitchers to look for will be Brandon Erbe (44 hits allowed in 73 innings, but control issues) and Jacob Arrieta (70 Ks in 59 innings across 11 starts). Give them a year or two and they might round out the Orioles rotation. Another young reliever, Steven Johnson, might start the year at AAA. The best hitter going through AA was Brandon Snyder, who pounded pitchers to a .343 batting average with 10 homers in 201 at bats, but appeared a bit overmatched at AAA. A former catcher (and 2005 #1 pick), Snyder is getting time at first base now and if both Aubrey and Atkins aren’t producing in June, Snyder is just a hot start away from making the roster.

Richie Hebner managed former Wofford College slugger Brandon Waring and the Frederick Keys in 2009. Waring is a third baseman who hits the ball a LONG way, and seems to be making progress in reducing his strikeout numbers. Another former Reds prospect, Waring is still a couple of years away and should be ready for a look when Tejada hits 40. Former FAU grad Robert Widlansky hit .340 for Frederick, but this was the first time he had played this well.

Among the pitchers, Brian Matusz already made it from Frederick to the bigs, and 22-year-old Zach Britton looks ready to try on AA after a year with 131 Ks in 140 innings. Reliever Pat Egan still showed great control, but may not have enough gas to make it to the bigs.

Forecasting 2010:

You have to like Baltimore’s chances of moving the wins needle back in the right direction. The potential to shave 60 – 80 runs defensively is there, and if Tejada doesn’t turn out to be 45 at third base, the offense could improve by 75 to 90 runs. What is working against the Orioles is the top of the division – three teams all worthy of 90 wins. I think the Orioles are extremely capable of winning more games than they lose – but might not just because they are in the AL East where good isn’t good enough. So, even though the system says 83 – 79 I think 79 – 83 might be more in line with the final record and I am going to go against what the system says.

Top NL Catchers

Posted on February 25, 2010 by Paul Proia

Unlike the guys who play between the baselines, determining the value of a catcher defensively is a much harder proposition for me. I haven’t been able to translate defense into runs the way I have for all the other positions, but I AM able to look at the responsibilities of a catcher and determine what teams are benefiting more from good catching than others. Here’s how I do it.

There are seven things for which a catcher would get credit as being solid defensively. If the catchers for a team are above average in a category, they get a point. If below average, they lose a point. The top score is seven, the lowest score (obviously) would be -7. Here are the categories:

W/L Percentage: Score a point for a winning record, take one away for being below .500.

Adjusted ERA: If the team’s staff has a better than league average ERA (4.21), score a point.

Mistakes Per Game: Essentially errors and passed balls are added up. The norm is about .11 mistakes a game for AL catchers. Score a point for doing better than that. Otherwise, take one away. The only time this is patently unfair is when a team has a knuckleballer – so this works against Boston right now. But it’s just a single category and I tend to give that team the benefit of the doubt on that category.

Mobililty: Mobility is the total number of assists that aren’t tied to stolen bases and the number of putouts that aren’t strikeouts. A good catcher blocks the plate and gets outs on throws home, or can race out of the crouch to snare bunts and make plays in the field. In the AL, the average catcher made .38 plays requiring mobility. Score a point for beating that number.

Fielding Percentage (not counting strikeouts): I guess someone had to get credit for the putout when a batter strikes out. Unfortunately, catching strike three isn’t really “fielding”. So, I look at the fielding percentage after removing putouts for Ks. The average catcher has a fielding percentage of about .914 on balls in play or when runners are trying to advance. Beat it, and score a point.

Assists Per Game: These are assists NOT tied to stolen bases and is used to grade the catcher’s ability to make good throws. The league average is .23 assists per game.

Stolen Base Percentage: Can a catcher hold the running game in check? If so, score a point. The league average is 73.6% – which is awfully high, don’t you think?

The best catcher (well, team of catchers) can score a seven – and it happens from time to time. As it turns out, there was a seven in the NL in 2009 – and it was your St. Louis Cardinals led by the incredible Yadier Molina. The Cardinals had a winning record, an adjusted ERA of 3.48, cut off the running game, made few errors, few mistakes in total, had great mobility, and had an above average number of assists not tied to stolen bases.

I’ll list the table here to show you where the catchers rank defensively and then discuss the nuts and bolts in the player comments below.

	M. ERA	WPct	SB%	FPct-K	MTK	Mob.	Asst	Rank
NL AVG	4.21	0.500	71.2%	0.917	0.11	0.44	0.33	***
ARI	4.03	0.432	76.1%	0.948	0.08	0.37	0.32	-1
ATL	3.77	0.531	67.8%	0.906	0.15	0.49	0.31	1
CHN	3.60	0.516	67.4%	0.879	0.14	0.50	0.34	3
CIN	4.23	0.481	62.7%	0.923	0.09	0.52	0.28	1
COL	3.76	0.568	81.0%	0.886	0.11	0.41	0.42	0
FLA	4.02	0.537	75.4%	0.971	0.07	0.35	0.29	1
HOU	4.71	0.457	69.1%	0.924	0.13	0.58	0.38	2
LAN	3.67	0.586	69.5%	0.914	0.09	0.41	0.37	3
MIL	5.12	0.494	79.6%	0.968	0.06	0.43	0.34	-1
NYN	4.58	0.432	66.0%	0.904	0.11	0.38	0.18	-4
PHI	4.10	0.574	72.0%	0.917	0.12	0.39	0.21	0
PIT	4.51	0.385	71.3%	0.883	0.18	0.44	0.39	-4
SDN	5.02	0.463	70.4%	0.891	0.16	0.45	0.29	-3
SFN	3.48	0.543	71.8%	0.911	0.12	0.37	0.42	-1
SLN	3.82	0.562	61.1%	0.943	0.07	0.54	0.42	7
WAS	4.98	0.364	70.1%	0.941	0.10	0.46	0.26	1

Catchers Ranked by Runs Created

Brian McCann (ATL): Unlike the AL, where Joe Mauer is arguably as valuable as any player in the game, the NL doesn’t have even one catcher who can generate 100 runs of offense. McCann has the ability to do it, but in 2009 fell a little short. Not that anybody is complaining – he’s been a top flight catcher for a few years now… Power, patience, hits for a good average (though not as high as two years ago). McCann is such a good hitter that it might be worth it to move him to first base to save his bat before the grind catches up with him. Backup Dave Ross was impressive against base stealers, nabbing 19 of 40 attempts. (88.95 Runs Created)

Yadier Molina (STL): A complete defensive package – only the best runners even DARE to run on him, and those are nabbed at a 40% rate. As an offensive weapon, Molina almost hit .300 and worked his way on base about 36% of the time – very good offensive production for a catcher, too. (72.22 Runs Created)

Miguel Montero (ARI): Power, patience, decent batting average. Granted – gets help by playing in Arizona, but would look good most anywhere. Montero and Chris Snyder avoid mistakes, but aren’t all that good against the run – and the team generally underperformed (though it’s not their fault that Brandon Webb didn’t play except on Opening Day). (66.14 Runs Created)

Russell Martin (LAD): Years of playing every day likely contributed to Martin’s amazing loss of energy and power. Still a solid defensive catcher – good against the run, his teams are very successful and the pitchers all look good. He’s consistently the second best catcher in the NL – but now is a below average offensive run producer. (65.19 Runs Created)

Bengie Molina (SF): More power than most catchers, and a decent (if slightly above average) batting average. Rarely walks, though, so his OBP is low (.291) which makes him a slightly below average offensive performer even with the power. People can run on Bengie (and do) and he’s just below average in terms of his mobility and dependability. Backup Eli Whiteside was great against the run. In a year, Buster Posey will have this job. Maybe sooner. (61.7 Runs Created)

Miguel Olivo, recently of Kansas City and now in Colorado, would rank here.

John Baker (FLA): He’s a decent enough hitter that Baker bats second in the lineup from time to time. Good OBP, decent power. His platoon mate, Ronny Paulino, also had a good season so the Marlins got a lot of production from this spot. Both tend to be dependable, but not necessarily mobile – and Paulino threw well enough… (50.26 Runs Created)

Jason Kendall (MIL): Brings his lack of power and barely acceptable on base percentage with him to Kansas City. To Kendall’s credit, the man is durable. On the other hand, look how badly so many Brewers pitchers fared. Look at the team ERA. Sure, he doesn’t make mistakes, but baserunners were successful 80% of the time. And the Royals didn’t want John Buck out there? For 2010, the Brewers will try Greg Zaun, George Kottaras, and possibly rookie Angel Salome – who would be my first choice… (50.24 Runs Created)

Carlos Ruiz (PHI): Not appreciably different than Baker – both had 9 homers, between 40 and 50 RBI, and virtually the same SLG and OBP. Ruiz, Paul Bako, and Chris Coste provide ordinary, middle of the road defense. How many teams has Paul Bako played for now? (48.6 Runs Created)

Rod Barajas – just signed by the Mets – would rank here.

Chris Iannetta (COL): His batting average was down (.228), but his power and OBP were still solid. Shared the job with Yorvit Torrealba and now will share with Miguel Olivo. Virtually everyone could run on Torrealba or third stringer Paul Phillips. (41.42 Runs Created)

Ramon Hernandez (CIN): I’d say this was a disappointing season for the veteran backstop – missed half the season due to injuries. Power numbers fell off to five homers, the rest of his game is barely average. Of course, Ryan Hanigan caught the most innings, but he’s not better with the bat (merely average at best). Even third stringer Craig Tatum had a good year against base stealers and as a team, the Reds had pretty good catching defensively. (40.10 Runs Created)

Nick Hundley (SD): Had stats that his dad might have had… Some power, a low batting average, but on the whole wasn’t too bad. Has room to improve defensively – easy to run on and a bit mistake prone. Henry Blanco was much better behind the plate, but you’d rather see Nick with the stick. (39.18 Runs Created)

Geovany Soto (CHI): Now THERE’S a sophomore slump. Ouch. Cut his homers in half (seemed like his batting average, too) – lost power and his OBP (.326). Says that he’s going to come into spring training in better shape and also not have to deal with the World Baseball Classic. For the Cubs sake, let’s hope so. Defensively, his backup, Koyie Hill, looked stronger against the run, but as a team they were above average in five categories – so they ranked very highly. (38.66 Runs Created)

Ivan Rodriguez (HOU): Finished year in Texas, now catching for the Nationals. His arm isn’t as good as it used to be, but it’s still solid. Backup Humberto Quintero was even better, nabbing 12 of 25 would be base stealers. I-Rod’s bat is gone, though. As a prospect, J.R. Towles would appear to be finished, huh? (36.46 Runs Created)

Ryan Doumit (PIT): Missed time with injuries (most catchers do), didn’t have his best season offensively and, as such, fell far down the list. As a team, Pirate catchers look bad – mistake prone, average against the run, with poor records and poor pitching ERAs. Jason Jaramillo isn’t the answer either and hits like a backup catcher. (34.97 Runs Created)

Omir Santos (NYM): Forced into more playing time than planned, Santos was tolerable. Slightly below average as a hitter – like many of the people on this list – Santos played when (a) Brian Schneider couldn’t keep his back and knees healthy and then (b) Ramon Castro got sent to the White Sox. On the whole, Santos didn’t look very mobile and Schneider certainly is more polished. But, the Mets catching as a whole looked off – below average results for pitchers and the team, a few too many mistakes… (34.20 Runs Created)

Ronny Paulino, discussed above, would rank here in offensive production – not bad for the right handed partner of a very effective Marlins platoon. (32.41 Runs Created)

Ryan Hanigan, the Reds catcher, got more innings than Hernandez, but a few less at bats. Good glove, a little bat kind of a guy.

Josh Bard (WAS) Got more innings than Wil Nieves or the injured Jesus Flores, Bard has some skills and was probably glad to not have to catch a knuckler… Doesn’t hit or get on base, and is power is marginal at best. (29.03 Runs Created)

Yorvit Torrealba (COL) Suffered through the kidnapping of his son, which – fortunately for all – ended without incident. Hit .305 with a decent OBA… Brutal against the run (8 out of 57 baserunners) but made fewer errors than Iannetta. (25.95 Runs Created)

Koyie Kill (CHC): Not much of a hitter – but can still throw some. (23.94 Runs Created)

Top AL Catchers in 2009

Posted on February 15, 2010 by Paul Proia

W/L Percentage: Score a point for a winning record, take one away for being below .500.

Adjusted ERA: If the team’s staff has a better than league average ERA (4.43), score a point.

Mistakes Per Game: Essentially errors and passed balls are added up. The norm is about .11 mistakes a game for AL catchers. Score a point for doing better than that. Otherwise, take one away. The only time this is patently unfair is when a team has a knuckleballer – so this works against Boston right now. But it’s just a single category and I tend to give that team the benefit of the doubt on that category.

Mobililty: Mobility is the total number of assists that aren’t tied to stolen bases and the number of putouts that aren’t strikeouts. A good catcher blocks the plate and gets outs on throws home, or can race out of the crouch to snare bunts and make plays in the field. In the AL, the average catcher made .38 plays requiring mobility. Score a point for beating that number.

Assists Per Game: These are assists NOT tied to stolen bases and is used to grade the catcher’s ability to make good throws. The league average is .23 assists per game.

Stolen Base Percentage: Can a catcher hold the running game in check? If so, score a point. The league average is 73.6% – which is awfully high, don’t you think?

The best catcher (well, team of catchers) can score a seven – and it happens from time to time. As it turns out, there was a seven in the AL in 2009 – and it was your Detroit Tigers led by Gerald Laird. The Tigers had a winning record, an adjusted ERA of 4.26, cut off the running game, made few errors, few mistakes in total, had great mobility, and had an above average number of assists not tied to stolen bases.

I’ll list the table here to show you where the catchers rank defensively and then discuss the nuts and bolts in the player comments below.

	ERA	WPct	SB%	FPct-K	MTK/G	Mobility	Asst/G	Rank
AL AVG	4.43	.500	73.6%	0.914	0.11	0.38	0.23	***
BAL	5.05	.395	78.3%	0.918	0.10	0.50	0.16	-1
BOS	4.20	.586	86.8%	0.925	0.10	0.47	0.20	3
CHA	4.02	.488	75.9%	0.899	0.09	0.18	0.11	-3
CLE	5.50	.401	77.1%	0.948	0.09	0.36	0.21	-3
DET	4.26	.528	63.8%	0.975	0.10	0.43	0.30	7
KCA	4.57	.401	74.5%	0.873	0.17	0.45	0.18	-5
LAA	4.41	.599	76.6%	0.875	0.14	0.41	0.43	1
MIN	4.28	.534	77.0%	0.933	0.12	0.32	0.10	-1
NYA	4.34	.636	70.6%	0.925	0.10	0.37	0.25	5
OAK	4.32	.463	70.8%	0.922	0.08	0.35	0.27	3
SEA	3.98	.525	60.4%	0.935	0.13	0.35	0.27	3
TBA	4.33	.519	76.3%	0.905	0.09	0.37	0.23	0
TEX	4.20	.537	69.7%	0.858	0.15	0.34	0.17	-1
TOR	4.61	.463	65.9%	0.911	0.13	0.41	0.32	-1

Joe Mauer (MIN): Hands down the best catcher in baseball, wouldn’t you think? An offensive force who chose to try and take advantage of hitter’s counts and blasted his way to creating 131.6 runs. Last year, Mauer wasn’t as dominating against the run, but he still did a few good things. His backups, Mike Redmond and Jose Morales can contribute. Both can hit a little and catch enough – but had limits. Redmond struggled against baserunners, who were successful 35 out of 40 times, while Morales had 5 passed balls and 3 errors in just 183 innings.

Victor Martinez (CLE/BOS): A remarkable hitter who bounced back from an unproductive and injury riddled 2008 to hit 23 homers, drive in 108 runs, and generate 108.8 runs of offense. His catching skills don’t match his offensive numbers – easy to run on, not exceptionally mobile. And, when asked to play first base, shows his lack of mobility there. Still, he’s 30 runs better than any other catcher offensively, you can live with the rest of it most days.

Kurt Suzuki (OAK): Would you have guessed he was the third most productive offensive catcher? Mid range power and average, can run some (78.45 Runs Created) and his stats aren’t helped any by playing in Oakland. Plays a lot of innings. Not great against the run and his teams haven’t been remarkably successful, but don’t blame this guy. Oakland’s catchers scored at 3 points, which is five above average counters, and just missing on mobility and the team’s winning percentage. He’s a great catcher.

Jorge Posada (NYY): Still a very productive player (74.98 Runs Created). Good power, good batting average, and patient at the plate. Defensively, Posada found some of his youth. His backups, Jose Molina (now in Toronto) and Francisco Cervelli may not hit like Jorge, but they are more than his equal defensively – a nice thing for the Yankees to have. Overall, the team ranked at +5 – six above average categories and just missed the league average for mobility. Cervelli was great against the run – gunning down 10 of 23 runners.

A.J. Pierzynski (CWS): Hit .300 but his power numbers were down a bit. Contributes with the bat (69.22 Runs Created), but his defense is not helping out. Not very mobile, makes a few too many mistakes, and the team fell below .500. The final tally was -3, which means that only the team’s ERA and the total mistakes per game numbers were above average. Everything else was not. Ramon Castro was #2 last year, and he isn’t known for his defense either (though he threw well in 2009).

Mike Napoli (LAA): An impressive hitter – power, patience, hit .272. His backup, Jeff Mathis, is the glove wizard. The net is a very productive combination. Slightly above average catching (+1) and above average hitting.

Miguel Olivo (KCA): Hits for power, but doesn’t get on base (53.59). Has a strong throwing arm, but doesn’t always get the ball where he was aiming. Makes an awful lot of mistakes, and for a guy who looks lean, isn’t very mobile. Royals catching was well below average (-5) because John Buck couldn’t throw people out and even though he’s less mistake prone, EVERYBODY is less mistake prone than Olivo. In 2010, both Olivo and Buck will be gone. Olivo is in Colorado, where if he gets off to a hot start might hit 30 homers and make 15 errors… Buck is in Toronto.

Jason Kendall, who inherits this job, would rank in this spot offensively and I don’t believe that things are going to improve that much defensively. You never know.

Matt Wieters (BAL): In two years, he may be the guy challenging Joe Mauer for the top rung. For now, he’s got work to do. A good hitter (.288, .412 slugging – 49.04 Runs Created) and not horrible catching (-1 as a team), I like where Baltimore is heading here. Gregg Zaun is gone, so Chad Moeller can back things up himself. Moeller didn’t throw anybody out trying to steal, though. Okay, two people, but that’s it. Maybe they can sign Paul Bako to teach Wieters a few tricks.

Rod Barajas (TOR): His batting average tanked to .226, but his power numbers were up (46.99 Runs Created). I think Toronto would miss Barajas, but Raul Chavez was equally good at shutting down the running game and not horribly error prone. Chavez is also more mobile these days and offensively they were a wash. Chavez is cheaper, though… The 2010 Blue Jays have only one catcher on the 40 man roster, Royals vet John Buck. After that, it’s non-roster invites like Chavez, Jose Molina and former first round pick J.P. Arencibia. Arencibia, out of Tennessee, has good power and some skills, but right now looks like he’d have Barajas’ batting numbers.

Before I let this get away, John Buck wasn’t horrible last year. Defensively, as mentioned, he was stronger than Olivo but everyone focused on Olivo’s homers and so he got to play more. Buck hits for some power and, per 27 outs, was actually more productive hitting than Olivo because he gets on base more often. I’m NOT suggesting that Buck is a hidden all star, but rather that if he got 450 at bats and kept his batting average around .240 rather than .220, he would probably help a team more often than not.

Jason Varitek (BOS): Now Victor Martinez’s job. Varitek started out okay and just faded to 14 – 51 – .209 (43.3 Runs Created). His slugging and OBP numbers aren’t very good either. ‘Tek also allowed 87% of the runners to steal – 108 successes against 16 runners gunned down. Martinez and George Kottaras weren’t any better (Martinez was worse in Boston, about the same if you combine his days in Cleveland). Martinez is going to help score runs in Boston, but I think the pitchers might miss Varitek. The young Varitek anyway…

Gerald Laird (DET): Didn’t get the lion’s share of the credit for Detroit’s comeback season because as a hitter, he’s not one. Creating just 41.3 runs with his .225 batting average and .320 slugging percentage, nobody’s putting Laird on their fantasy team if they can help it. But he was solid as a defensive stopper – above average in all seven categories and only Kenji Johjima was harder to run on. Laird tossed out more than 40% of all runners.

Kelly Shoppach (CLE): Did I read that right? Shoppach was hit 18 times by pitches? What did he do??? As a hitter, he strikes out WAY too much (39.77 Runs Created). He’s better defensively than Victor Martinez was, but that’s like saying I’m taller than my seven-year-old. He was a bit more mistake prone, but better against the run and much more mobile. Lou Marson, the former Phillies prospect, will get every chance to win the job and I gather he will. Marson will hit in the 280s with medium power and some patience. And, he can throw, too. Oddly enough, in terms of total production, Shoppach was better in Cleveland than Victor Martinez because if you count everything, you have to include Victor’s lack of defense at first base.

Dioner Navarro (TB): After such a nice 2008, Navarro crashed and burned in 2009. His batting average fell to .218, his power was gone, and he doesn’t get on base in other ways so that was a big zilch at the end of the lineup (32.63 Runs Created). His reputation against the running game may have stopped more people than actually stole bases – the numbers show him to be league average and in the seven categories, Tampa scored ZERO – just as many above average categories than below average categories. The team says they want Navarro to come into camp lighter, so check the Diamond Notes in the spring.

Kenji Johjima (SEA): Back in Japan – his batting average and playing time fell off (despite being more productive per 27 outs than many of the guys ahead of him – the net was just 29.91 Runs Created). Defensively, he and Rob Johnson weren’t too bad – just a few too many mistakes and marginal mobility.

Rob Johnson, who – like Grady Sizemore – had surgeries over two-thirds of his body in the offseason, comes into 2010 as the odds-on starter. And yet Johnson wasn’t all that solid, generating just 25.2 runs while being a slightly above average catcher (compared to Johjima, who was awesome).

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (TEX): He needed to have a big season with Laird gone and Teagarden coming up behind him and it didn’t happen. Salty wasn’t horrible defensively but Teagarden is better – better against the run and more mobile. As a hitter, Saltalamacchia didn’t cut it – just 29.3 runs created with an OBP under .300 and the SLG under .375. If it was .320 and .425, he’d be hard to replace.

As it was, Taylor Teagarden hit worse than Saltalamacchia, generating 19.3 runs in his 200+ plate appearances. So, Teagarden’s chance may have passed as well – meaning Max Ramirez may wind up the starting catcher. The only problem with that is that even Ramirez didn’t hit in AAA last year – batting just .234 with a .336 SLG in Oklahoma City. The Rangers THOUGHT they had the position locked down two years ago, and now Laird is gone and nobody has really stepped forward. I think Saltalamacchia, because he’s likely the better hitter of the group, will eventually take over for good.

Final Thoughts… You want to know how valuable Joe Mauer is? Look at how many catchers generate barely 50 runs of offense and realize that Mauer is 80 to 90 runs better than that. AND, he’s a great catcher. He was easily the most valuable player in the AL last year and will deserve whatever monster five or six year deal he can get.

2010 Season Forecast: Milwaukee Brewers

Posted on January 26, 2010 by Paul Proia

Last Five Seasons:

2009: 80 – 82 (3rd, NL Central)
2008: 90 – 72
2007: 83 – 79
2006: 75 – 87
2005: 81 – 81

Runs Scored: 785 (3rd, NL)
Runs Allowed: 818 (15th, NL)

Season Recap:

Generally a .500 team as their hitting kept pace with their poor pitching… The Brewers got a hot run in May, winning 14 of 17 to make a run to the top of the division, but gradually fell back to .500 by mid August and a bit below it in September. They lost Rickie Weeks to a wrist injury in May, but found ways to work around it. J.J. Hardy’s bat got lost in the summer, but the Brewers had a way around that in Alcides Escobar. The Brewers battered opposing pitchers with above average performers in at least six spots in the lineup on a daily basis.

What they couldn’t get around was their pitching – four starters with ERAs between 5.22 and 6.38. They tried Mike Burns (a prospect four years ago) and his ERA (5.75) fit right in there. Carlos Villanueva had a few spot starts and his ERA was 5.34, too. The bullpen was tolerable – Trevor Hoffman was remarkably solid and Todd Coffey did a great job, but the rest were rather middling.

Defensively, the Brewers had two holes – first base and right field. That both were REALLY poor suggests that there might be a statistical bias, however Milwaukee had only one lefty starter and he worked just 140 innings. Granted – the righties on the staff don’t blow you away with fastballs either. The Brewers third basemen, as a group, were above average – but not MORE above average than Prince Fielder was below average. And the Brewers left fielder, Ryan Braun, was merely league average while Corey Hart was well below average. As a team, the Brewers turned fewer balls in play into outs than the average NL team and the middle infielders didn’t help out by turning two often enough either.

2010 Goals:

As I read it, the Brewers need to shore up the starting rotation, see if Alcides Escobar is the real deal, and hope that Corey Hart is more mobile in 2010 than he was last year. If Prince Fielder could lose 20 pounds, it might help, too. I’d worry about the long term viability of Trevor Hoffman as a closer – but he was so good last year it’s hard to think that this is the year he falls off the map. However, Hoffman is 42 now and the end could come at any time.

Pitchers:

In 2009, the Brewers had one pretty good starter in Yovani Gallardo, who went 13 – 12 with a 3.73 ERA. By my count, he was about ten and half runs better than the average starter in his 185.2 innings. That makes him a solid #2 guy in any rotation. And so ends the good news. Braden Looper cost the team 33 runs (14 – 7, 5.22 ERA), Jeff Suppan cost them 31 more, David Bush 32 in just 114.1 innings, and Manny Parra cost the Brewers 44 runs in his 140 innings. The four guys (other than Gallardo) were 140 runs worse than the average pitcher – and that has to be fixed.

In the off season, the Brewers added Randy Wolf from LA – he had his best season in 2009, but has been around league average (up and down) since 2006. He doesn’t have to blow the league away, but if he could give the Brewers 200 innings of league average pitching, he’d immediately save the team 50 runs. Another signing was Doug Davis – a former Brewer – who has been an above average starter for the last three years. Again – 180 innings at league average would be worth 35 runs in savings. If Claudio Vargas can return to the rotation, or if Manny Parra can stop walking guys and getting in unnecessary trouble, there are two other chances (a little less dependable chances) that the team could save 30 more runs.

The bullpen may need help. I like moving Bush to the bullpen. If Vargas stays in the pen, that would help. Trevor Hoffman is getting old, and Todd Coffey exceeded expectations. I see this group actually taking a step back in 2010 – maybe 20 runs worse than last year.

Catchers:

Out is Jason Kendall, who last year was a tolerable catcher though a bit easy to run on, and a miserable offensive player. In his place for 2010 is Gregg Zaun, who is nearing 40, George Kotteras, and rookie Angel Colome, who battered pitching at Huntsville in 2008 and was decent, though not great, at Nashville last year. Baseball America named Colome as the Brewers’ #5 prospect last year. At best this is a wash.

Infield:

This is a pretty good group. Prince Fielder is an offensive machine and a defensive liability. The net, though, is one of the better players in baseball. Around the horn, Weeks, Escobar, and Casey McGehee were solid and all will contribute with the bat some. If Escobar lives up to the hype (and he was solid in 2009’s call up), he might add a few runs offensively and remove a few defensively compared to J.J. Hardy. At worst, he’s a wash. Waiting in the wings is #2 prospect Mat Gamel, who was drafted five years ago and if he’s going to make a splash, better get on the diving board soon. Gamel plays third or first – but with Fielder there, would likely push McGehee for his job.

Outfield:

Ryan Braun remains a triple crown threat, and Corey Hart needs to bounce back. Hart’s season was marred by injuries which may have contributed to his range falling off the map. He’s got some power, but his batting average has fallen each year since breaking out in 2007. Mike Cameron, still a productive outfielder and rangy centerfielder, is gone having landed in Boston. In his place is former Twins and Mets prospect Carlos Gomez. Gomez can run down flies like Cameron, but has yet to prove himself as an offensive producer. If Gomez shows improvement and Hart bounces back, this won’t necessarily be an improvement but it won’t be a loss either. My gut tells me that Gomez won’t ever produce like Cameron did last year, and that the Crew will be looking for a new centerfielder in 2011.

Bench:

Remains strong – Jody Gerut is a dependable fourth or fifth outfielder. Hernan Iribarren and Craig Counsell are still here and producing. Prospect Lorenzo Cain will get a look in the outfield. Heck, if the Brewers get really stuck, they could play Weeks in the outfield if necessary. Zaun and Kotteras will be good backup catchers.

Prospects:

I like Chris Cody, a pitcher in Huntsville last year, who showed some promise and was promoted to AAA Nashville mid-season. He’s not ready, but he might have a shot in 2011. Mike Burns was the best AAA pitcher last year, but didn’t look overly impressive in 2009 with the Brewers and he’s not a prospect… Chris Smith (2 – 0, 17 saves, 1.27 ERA) could be the closer in waiting. He fanned 49 and walked just 6, in 42.2 innings. Brett Lawrie moved up quickly to AA after showing power, discipline, a little speed – and just turned 20. In a couple of years, check back on the progress of Amaury Rivas and Evan Anundsen, who pitched well for Brevard County (A+) in the Florida State League. Rivas, at 23, has been working his way up slowly through the minors. Anundsen was drafted out of high school in 2006 and looks to be turning the corner. Another interesting guy is Eric Farris, a BURNER out of Loyola Marymount, who is a bit of a slap hitter, but stole 70 bases in 76 tries at Brevard County. His teammate Caleb Gindl is a decent outfielder with some power and speed and is making his mark. We’ll see him in 2012 or 2013.

Outlook:

On the whole, I think the Brewers will contend for the NL Central. I’m guessing they score about 760 runs or thereabouts, but more importantly, cut the runs allowed number to a more respectable 700. That would work out to 88 wins – and a potential playoff berth. If the bullpen holds solid and three starting rotation positions show real improvement (and not just two), it could easily be 90 wins or more.

More Infielders on the Move: Figgins a Mariner?

Posted on December 5, 2009 by Paul Proia

Seattle looks to be adding third baseman Chone Figgins to the fold. Figgins, who had his best season with the Angels in 2009 – a .395 OBP and .298 Batting Average with decent stolen base numbers – would likely bat on either side of Ichiro Suzuki at the the top of the Mariner lineup. FoxSports and SI are reporting a 4-year, $36 million deal with a $9 million option for a fifth season.

This means, of course, that Adrian Beltre will become a free agent. The Mariners offered Beltre arbitration, but it would appear that Beltre will decline it and test the market. Beltre really slipped offensively last year ( 8 – 44 – .265 – 19 walks in 111 games), though he still has as much range as any third baseman in the AL. If Beltre doesn’t hit for any power, Figgins will generate a lot more offense. Defensively, however, I show Beltre (and his replacements) to have made about 11.26 plays more than the average third basemen per 800 balls in play – and Figgins is that average third baseman (.30 better than average).

So, let’s figure this out. Last year, Figgins generated about 100 runs of offense to Beltre’s 53. Of course, Figgins played the whole year while Beltre missed about 50 games (and his backups weren’t much better), so the net difference is probably closer to 30 runs improvement on offense. By my defensive rating system, the Seattle’s third basemen likely prevented an additional 58 hits – equal to about 32 runs. (My system says that for every eight hits saved, the fielder saves his team about 4.38 runs, which is how I get to that number…) So – the net change, assuming Figgins plays a full season again is, well – no change. For every extra run scored, the defense will give one back. Figgins will make less money than Beltre (just finished a five year, $64 million deal) – so that has to be worth something, right? The Mariners will see the same overall production and save about $3 or $4 million in salary.

I like that deal.

Other Hot Stove News…

The Dodgers signed reliever Justin Miller to a minor league deal. Miller was successful with San Francisco last year, a 3.18 ERA in 44 games. They also signed minor league outfielder Prentice Redman to a minor league deal. Redman has a little power, but at best can be described as “organizational depth”. [MLB]

Greg Zaun will be around another year – maybe two. The Brewers inked the veteran backstop to a one-year $2.25 million deal with a club option for 2011. [FoxSports]

Texas claimed Toronto infielder Joe Inglett off waivers, bringing in a younger utility infielder than last year’s option – Omar Vizquel. [Fox Sports]

Two who didn’t sign were Brad Penny and Juan Uribe of the Giants. Each were given one-year deal (Penny got incentives, Uribe a club option), but the players turned down the offers. [SI]

What? The Yankees are going to slash their salary budget? That’s what ESPN reports…

Happy Birthday!

One of my favorite players – and someone who I think SHOULD have had a Hall of Fame career except that injuries continually derailed his career – is Cliff Floyd – and Floyd turns 37 today.

Others celebrating with cake, cards, or remembrances include: Patsy Tebeau (1864) – a player and manager during the early days of baseball, Giants catcher Frank Bowerman (1868), Emerson “Pink” Hawley (1872), a Pittsburgh area pitcher who crosses Rube Waddell’s path a couple of times, Gus Mancuso (1905),David “Boo” Ferris (1921), Bill Rodgers (1922), Chico Ruiz (1938), Gary Roenicke (1954), Sammy Khalifa (1963), and Gene Harris (1964).

Afterthoughts…

Sammy Sosa did not attend a hearing in a court case where he allegedly owes more than $200K in unpaid services. [ESPN]

Speaking of steroids, four minor leaguers were given suspensions for the abuse of substances – three were steroids, while the fourth was labeled “a drug of abuse” – which could be anything, really. No need to name names, unless you want to read the article. [MLB]

Griffey’s Last Go? NL Gold Gloves and Hot Stove News…

Posted on November 12, 2009 by Paul Proia

Everybody is happy – the Mariners, Ken Griffey, Jr., fans in Seattle, and me… Ken Griffey signed a one year deal to return to the Mariners in what could be his final hurrah. The Kid turns 40 this month (!) and I might have to sneak off to Tampa to give him one last cheer. Granted, he’s not going to be an impact player on the field, but few have his impact in the clubhouse or the community. For a while, he was my favorite player in baseball and I am glad to have him around the game. [ESPN]

NL Gold Gloves…

Similar to the AL, there’s one arguably bad choice among the Gold Glove winners in the National League. Certainly, there will be arguments, but otherwise the list is pretty solid. Around the outfield, Matt Kemp, Shane Victorino and speedster Michael Bourn came home with trophies. The infield features Ryan Zimmerman, Jimmy Rollins, Orlando Hudson, and Adrian Gonzalez. The battery includes two Cards – Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright. [MLB]

That being said, the choice of Rollins is – like Jeter – one of fame and not of numbers. Rollins has a very low range factor (3.96 chances per nine innings) and the best range of people playing around 100 games or so belonged to Brendan Ryan of St. Louis. The guy who had surprisingly good stats was Miguel Tejada. In my opinion, a healthy Troy Tulowitski is the best fielder of the bunch, so my vote would have gone there.

After years of Cactus, is Grapefruit in the Cubs Future?

Naples, Florida is in the running to host spring training for the Chicago Cubs, which would be a HUGE change for the north siders. I mean, think of all the Chicagoans who retire to Arizona who will feel cheated!!! Me – a Cubs fan living in Florida – would love it, but my hunch is that the Cubs are using this to get a better deal near their current home in AZ. [MLB]

Other News…

Victor Zambrano’s mother was returned unharmed… Apparently federal agents used a commando-styled attack to rescue the woman. [ESPN]

Jamie McCourt denies having an affair and wants ownership of the Dodgers. McCourt tried to get her old CEO job back and failed, and recently suggested that as a lady in a man’s world (law and business) she passed up plenty of opportunities for fun as a supportive wife… [ESPN]

Brad Lidge’s surgery on his throwing elbow is considered a success and while he may miss a week or two of spring training, the hope is that he will close games on Opening Day and beyond for the Phillies. [MLB]

Arizona’s Brandon Webb threw for the first time since his shoulder surgery. First footballs, then baseballs from 60 feet. Webb said he was encouraged by the progress. [MLB]

Managerial Roller Coaster…

ESPN is reporting that Jim Riggleman will be announced as the new manager of the Washington Nationals. Riggleman had the Nationals playing better down the stretch during his interim run last season. [ESPN]

ESPN’s Gene Wojciechowski thinks it’s time for Mark McGuire to come clean about his past before he starts his future as hitting instructor for the Cards. [ESPN]

Matt Williams will join Arizona and become a first base coach. [SI]

Thanks for Playing!

Jason Varitek would rather take a pay cut and play for Boston than take his chances anywhere else. So, ‘Tek signed his $3 million option and will return as Victor Martinez’s backup in 2010. [ESPN]

Utility infielder Wilson Betemit is expected to sign a minor league deal with the Royals. If so, he’s an insurance policy for the two players the Royals got from the White Sox in last week’s trade, Chris Getz and Josh Fields – oddly, two players Betemit backed up in Chicago… [MLB]

Hot Stove News…

The Reds might deal Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, and Aaron Harang in this offseason. Apparently, they have a cash flow problem… [FanHouse]

Having locked in billions of dollars of salaries, the Yankees are rumored to be looking at acquiring more high-priced pitching. Among those in the future could be Roy Halliday and John Lackey. Seriously, if this happens we might as well cut the Yankees loose and call it good. [SI]

Meanwhile, don’t rule out Lackey staying in Anaheim. According to FoxSports, Anaheim will make a serious offer – and failing that, might go after Halliday, too. [FoxSports]

Apparently, the Tigers are looking to trade Edwin Jackson following his solid season in Detroit. According to FoxSports, it’s about the Benjamins… [FoxSports]

Greg Zaun and Jason Schmidt filed for free agency yesterday, preceded by Eric Bruntlett one day earlier. I wonder who will gladly pay Schmidt to ride the DL? [MLB]

Former Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado is looking to play winter ball so people can see him play this winter prior to his signing a free agent contract. Delgado missed most of 2009 with a hip injury. [MLB]

Happy Birthday! For you Field of Dreams fans, Archibald “Moonlight” Graham was born on this day in 1877.

Others celebrating with cards, cake, or rememberances include: Carl Mays (1891) – worthy of Hall of Fame inclusion based on his career but likely will never go because his pitch killed Ray Chapman in 1920, Joe Hoerner (1936), Ron Bryant (1947), Bruce Bochte (1950), Cub favorite Jody Davis (1956), Donnie Hill (1960), Greg Gagne (1961), Dave Otto (1964) – who I remember from his days pitching for Elk Grove High School back in Illinois, Slammin’ Sammy Sosa (1968), Homer Bush (1972), Aaron Heilman. Wow – that’s a lot of former Cubs on this list…

Can Improv Theater Save Matt Murton? Calling Todd Stashwick!!! And Other Baseball News…

Posted on August 27, 2009 by Paul Proia

The Phillies tried Ryan Madson as the closer last night (Lidge had pitched in four consecutive games and wasn’t available as it was) and blew the save anyway… No worries – Lidge will keep his job until his arm or knee falls off. [Multiple Sources]

A little good news earlier in the broadcast… Hiroki Kuroda threw a successful bullpen session and is closer to returning to the Dodgers. He is expected to throw a simulated game in a few days, then a rehab start. Kuroda is healing quickly after suffering a concussion when nailed in the side of the head by a drive off the bat of Rusty Ryal a couple of weeks ago. [MLB]

Brad Penny asked for, and received, his release from the Boston Red Sox – surrendering his roster spot to Billy Wagner. Penny will start looking for a team that wants a healthy but disappointing pitcher. I always liked him – works fast, threw strikes. He needs Dave Duncan – but the Marlin fan in me wouldn’t mind letting him find his routine as a long reliever back home in Florida where it started for him [ESPN]

With no fear that this was going to get any better for him, Milton Bradley says he feels “hatred” from Cub fans – fans who are disappointed that the usually dependable hitter (if undependable personality) had struggled through most of his first season in Chicago. Bradley says the only place he feels any love is at home with his family, and apparently gets booed in more places than just Wrigley – like restaurants, bars, grocery stores, gas stations, and knitting clubs. Do you think that many people recognize Milton Bradley at first glance? Or is he just paranoid? [ESPN]

Moving across town, newly acquired White Sox starter Jake Peavy’s start on Saturday will be postponed. His elbow is still sore and swollen, the effects of being hit by a line drive in his last rehab start. [ESPN]

Speaking of sore elbows, Detroit starter Armando Gallaraga goes to AAA for rest (and not the DL?), giving his sore throwing elbow a break. To replace him, Nate Robertson gets the call. Robertson has been on the DL with an elbow injury himself… [ESPN]

Yankee catcher Jorge Posada will miss a few games after taking a foul ball squarely on his left ring finger Wednesday night; the finger is swollen but not broken. [ESPN]

Another Mets pitcher is heading to surgery… Oliver Perez’s sore knee requires a scalpel and sutures to repair his right patella tendon. Look for Pat Misch or Lance Broadway to get his starts. (I know – Broadway in New York… Broadway was picked up in May for backup catcher Ramon Castro in a trade with the White Sox.) If you were counting, this is 14 Met players on the DL. [ESPN]

FoxSports is reporting that LaTroy Hawkins was placed on waivers, but claimed by someone. So, Houston recalled Hawkins’ name from the list and now cannot be traded until after the season. [FoxSports]

For the second time in five years, the Cleveland Indians bus was involved in an accident or incident on the way to Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City. The driver of the car hitting the bus was injured, but the Indians won the game anyway… [SI]

A Federal Appeals court ruled that federal investigators were wrong for seizing the list of players who had tested positive in the now infamous “sampling” tests done in 2003 to determine if baseball needed a stronger anti-PED policy. Prosecutors wanted information about ten players involved in the BALCO investigation and wound up with 104 players instead… The leaks are more famous than the list itself. The Fed was asked to return the list, but one wonders if this means that the leaks will end. [SI]

In an odd twist, three umpires worked home plate in last night’s Toronto/Tampa game. Jerry Crawford left with back spasms. His replacement, Tom Hallion, took a Scott Kazmir fastball in the chest (Travis Snider swung and missed, and Greg Zaun had no idea Kazmir was throwing a fastball and missed, too). Hallion chose to stay out there – but moved to third base instead, meaning that Brian O’Nora had to finish the game. I’m betting that hasn’t happened before. [FoxSports]

Welcome Back! Justin Upton returned to Arizona, Juan Rincon returned to Colorado, Joe Saunders is back with the Angels, and Tim Wakefield is back with Boston – all four coming back from DL stints. Brett Carroll is back with the Marlins with Nick Johnson heading to the DL. Carroll is the best fifth outfielder they have… Drew Macias made his seventeenth trip between Portland and San Diego this week… I’ll root for him forever now.

Is it Over? I sure hope not. Matt Murton was designated for assignment by Colorado. The kid could hit, but never keep a job. Murton isn’t Russell Branyan – a power hitter without a home because he never gets more than 100 at bats in a month to get his groove on. He’s more of a .280 – .300 hitter with middling power type. If he could pinch hit or tell jokes or dance during the seventh inning stretch, he’d be Jay Johnstone and hang around on benches forever. Todd Stashwick (my favorite actor) – you probably don’t read my blog, but if you could teach him to be more clever and work on his impromtu humor so he could be a guest on pregame, postgame, and rain delay shows, Matt Murton could stay in the majors.

Hurry Back! Pirates pitcher Jeff Karstens heads to the DL with a strained back. Shane Loux (Angels), Daniel Schlereth (D-Backs), and Collin Balester (Nationals) are heading back to AAA.

Afterthoughts… Is it me, or do ESPN Radio hosts get more vacation time than anyone? Mike and Mike in the Morning should be renamed “Maybe Mike and Mike, but probably Erik Kuselius in for one of them, in the Morning”… And nobody’s show is less frequently hosted by the named star than the afternoon drive show of Doug Gottlieb. He is NEVER on his own show. In fact, I’m used to the radio bump “You’re Listening to the Doug Gottlieb Show… In for Doug, Ryan Racillo.” Does somebody keep stats on this???

Might Be Yankees Year; Giambi and Padilla join Smoltz on Released and Designated for Assignment List

Posted on August 8, 2009 by Paul Proia

I struggled to stay up to watch the Yankees-Red Sox fifteen inning masterpiece – a great game, really, with loads of amazing pitching and the best stained player of his generation hitting a game-winning homer in the 15th inning to win it. You had Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, former teammates in Florida, dueling it out before handing it to the bullpen. And it was the bullpen of the Sox – heck, the pitching of the Sox, once touted for its depth and skill and now looking frazzled and weak – that finally caved. The one time weakness, the Yankees bullpen, pitched nearly eight innings of beautiful baseball. It’s certainly not over. Ali looked like he would finish Frazier in 4 rounds in Manilla, if you remember, but Frazier gamely came back for more. A war of this size cannot be won in a single series. But the Yankees look like the best team in the AL East, and Tampa might be #2. And the difference is depth – depth in offense and pitching, which the Yankees have now, and the Sox do not.

Speaking of the Red Sox pitching… What to do with John Smoltz, he of the 8-plus ERA? He’s been designated for assignment. The Sox have ten days to trade or release him, and then Smoltz will have to figure out what he wants to do. Should he head to the minors and work through it? Should he take another offer? Should he ride off in his golf cart into the sunset? If so, he’ll have plenty of people to golf with – now that Maddux and Glavine also have free time. The PGA Champions Tour will have to look out. Smoltz is coming soon. [MLB, SI, ESPN, FoxSports]

Just as the Cubs started rolling after the All-Star break, another pitcher stumbles. This time, it’s Carlos Zambrano who was scratched from his start with a stiff lower back. [SI]

And, the Dodgers don’t need this – Chad Billingsley tweaked his hamstring running the bases after hitting a single in the sixth inning. Billingsley tried to pitch at the start of the seventh, but one warmup pitch later, he was done. He’s start to start, but a DL stint wouldn’t be surprising. [MLB]

Seattle’s Erik Bedard has fraying in his sore throwing shoulder – and will likely miss this season and if another MRI shows more damage, could require surgery. [SI]

The Minnesota Twins could use some starting pitching, and Cleveland – who had given up on 2009 – gave them Carl Pavano. Pavano will actually start Saturday for the Twins. Cleveland put Pavano on the waiver wire, the Twins pegged him, so the two clubs worked out a deal. Cleveland will get a player to be named later. [MLB]

Baltimore also got a player to be named later when they agreed to trade catcher Greg Zaun to Tampa. Chad Moeller was recalled from AAA to back up Matt Wieters. [SI]

Most teams are looking for help. Here are two teams that are moving in the other direction. Texas designated Vincente Padilla for assignment. Padilla hasn’t been in the good graces of Rangers management – and now management has ten days to trade, release, or send Padilla to the minors. And, Oakland released Jason Giambi. The 38-year-old slugger has been fighting a quad injury that has him on the DL – and now he’s got time to find a new job. If he’s healthy, he might be able to help someone off the bench for six weeks – so somebody might take a flyer on him. [SI]

Alex Rios was considered a franchise type player by Toronto. Now, he’s been put on the waiver wire and according to sources, some team put in a claim. Toronto can let him go (the new team takes on the rest of his $60 million in salary), or pull him back and make a trade offer. [FoxSports]

Welcome Back! Geovany Soto (Cubs), Darin Erstad (Astros), Rich Aurilia (Giants) all returned from the DL. Chris Woodward had been released by Seattle – Boston needs a shortstop badly, so they signed him up…

Hurry Back! Astro reliever Doug Brocail heads to the DL with a strained right shoulder. The Dodgers got two starts out of Jason Schmidt before he headed back to the DL with a strained shoulder. Now THAT was a good investment of $47 million…

Welcome to the Majors! Julio Borbon was called up by Texas. He’s hit over .300 the last couple of years heading through the minors, but in cities that make people look like hitters. He’s got some speed and won’t turn down a walk, but isn’t likely to get one because he makes so much contact. He’s probably no better or worse than Willy Taveras (though he won’t run as often), but he is certainly younger and cheaper…

2009 Season Forecast: Baltimore Orioles

Posted on April 8, 2009 by Paul Proia

Baltimore Orioles
2008: 68-93 (5th AL East, 28.5 games back)
Runs Scored: 782
Runs Allowed: 869

With the trade of Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard to Houston and Seattle respectively for prospects, 2008 represented the first year of a rebuilding plan in the American League’s toughest division. But these Orioles weren’t half bad. Sure, they were 22 – 50 inside their division, but actually above .500 against everyone else (46 – 43). The reason? The Orioles had a decent offense and a handful of young pitchers finding their way. It’s a good time to be a Baltimore fan – just don’t expect to make the playoffs until a rotation anchor or two can be found.

Looking Back on 2008

With 782 runs scored, the Orioles finished in the middle of the league in terms of scoring – just a few runs behind the Yankees. What they lacked was pitching and defense – having allowed 869 runs, which was next to last in the American League.

Baltimore got off to a great start – winning sixteen in April and fighting for the division lead for the first month. Things slowed in May thanks to a streak against their own division where they lost ten of thirteen, but a solid June followed. Even though the leaders in the division were starting to pull away, the Orioles were still five games over .500 as late as June 20th. Heck, if Toronto had a 39 – 34 record at this point in the season, the way they finished, the Blue Jays might have won a playoff spot.

Instead, the Orioles got cold after the all-star break. Ending a five-game losing streak had them at .500 for the last time on July 11th, and from that point on, Baltimore was a non-factor, losing a few games each month to .500 until September, when playing rookies killed the overall record. The Orioles went 5 – 20 to close the season, ruining what had been, until then, a reasonably successful summer in Camden Yards.

Tell me about that offense

Behind the plate, the new Cincinnati Red, Ramon Hernandez, held his own. He provided a little power, and a .250+ batting average, but not much else. Hernandez has actually slipped some from his performance in 2006, which didn’t help, but his backup, Guillermo Quiroz, couldn’t hit .200 in 134 at bats.

The infield was reasonably strong at two spots. Third baseman Melvin Mora had a decent enough season, driving in 104 runs and batting .285. Second sacker Brian Roberts is a great leadoff hitter, just missing .300, hitting 51 doubles, adding some triples and homers, a lot of walks, and 40 stolen bases in 50 chances. Kevin Millar struggled to hit .234, but even that had a few homers and some walks. For the position, that’s not good enough and he’s likely to move to a bench role with another team in 2009. Where the Orioles really struggled was finding a consistent option at short. Of the guys playing at least 200 innings (and nobody played more than 400 innings there), the best hitting option was former White Sox prospect Alex Cintron, who hit .286 but with little power or other helpers. The rest averaged about .200 as a group, including Brandon Fahey, Freddie Bynum, and Juan Castro.

The outfield featured rookie Adam Jones, who hit .270, but showed room for power potential, a little speed, but not much else at this stage. As such, he’s mildly below average as a hitter, but if he could step forward one or two notches, he could help. Luke Scott came over from Houston and hit well enough, with 23 homers and showing some plate discipline. However, his occasional platoon partner, Jay Payton, struggled at the plate – so the net result wasn’t exactly positive. Rightfielder Nick Markakis continued to show growth as a future star, hitting for power (20 – 87 – .306) and getting on base.

If Markakis wasn’t the best hitter on the team, it was Aubrey Huff, who had a career season (32 – 108 – .304.) Both scored about 7.5 runs per 27 outs, and anchored the offense. Only Oscar Salazar hit well off the bench, and he didn’t have 100 plate appearances.

Defensively:

Baltimore pitchers worked with a defense that was not quite league average… The league turned converted 68.6% batted balls in play into outs. Baltimore finished at .68.5%.

Around the horn, Mora and Millar was just a touch above average, while Brian Roberts was just a touch below league average. Most of the shortstops had decent defensive stats except Bynum, so while the offense at short was lacking, the defense was not. However, the team was rather weak in terms of turning double plays in part because there were a lot of flyball pitchers and Roberts was working with a different partner most of the season.

Markakis and Scott were a shade off of league average, while Adam Jones was slightly worse than that. When Jay Payton played, he couldn’t hit but the ball found his glove. Luis Montanez, however, played three outfield positions and never seemed to be standing where the ball was hit… Between them all, the outfield was actually below average and with a fly ball staff, this was a problem.

Hernandez had an awful year throwing out runners – 99 of the 123 people who tried to steal were successful. Throw in the fact that he was slightly above average in terms of mistakes per game and that the staff’s ERA and winning percentage wasn’t very strong, my system suggests that Hernandez was among the weaker catchers in the AL.

Now Pitching…

Only two pitchers had really strong seasons for Baltimore. Starter Jeremy Guthrie was about 19 runs better than the average pitcher, going 10 – 12, with good control through a few too many balls left the yard. It was the second solid season for Guthrie, who is far and away the ace of the staff. Middle reliever Jim Johnson didn’t allow a homer all season, which kept his ERA down, and despite having ordinary walk and strikeout data was also valuable for the Orioles.

Unfortunately, too many guys were WAY below average here. Among the rotation starters, Brian Burres (-21 runs), Daniel Cabrera (-14 runs), Radhames Liz (-22 runs), Garrett Olson (-29 runs), and Steve Trachsel (-20 runs in 8 starts) got the Orioles in the hole early all too often. Chris Waters came up and had 11 middling to below average starts with a 5.01 ERA and was an improvement.

The bullpen had Chad Bradford for a while, and George Sherrill had 33 saves, but they weren’t by any means awesome. Sherrill’s ERA was 4.73, so he wasn’t setting the AL on fire as the Orioles’ fireman. Most of the other relievers, including Dennis Sarfate, Lance Cormier, Jamie Walker and others struggled to put up league average numbers. Compare that to the staffs of Boston, New York, or Tampa (much less Toronto), and you can see where the team needs to improve.

Forecasting 2009:

Ideally, the Orioles would like to see a little more offense, but more importantly, they have to find ways to keep the other team from scoring runs. To get to .500, you’re talking about cutting more than 100 runs from the runs allowed, which means finding six decent pitchers and improving the outfield defense.

Offensively, the changes start at catcher (Greg Zaun for Ramon Hernandez, with Matt Wieters possibly getting his shot at some point this season), as well as first base (Millar is gone, with Ty Wigginton here). Cesar Izturis arrives from St. Louis to play short – he’s not a championship quality hitter, but will be an improvement over the crew who played here last year. It looks like the Orioles will not be trading Brian Roberts (they shouldn’t), which helps, and if Melvin Mora stays productive, the infield will be solid. Defensively, they are probably 5 to 10 runs better, and offensively they are probably 15 runs better.

The outfield has added Felix Pie and Ryan Freel, but I don’t see how either of them will take Jones, Scott, or Markakis out of the lineup. However, Pie could be the surprise – and as a defensive replacement, he’ll be solid. The outfield of Scott, Jones, and Markakis can still produce runs, but more importantly there are a couple of bench performers who can contribute. Offensively this is probably worth ten runs, and defensively, this could be worth ten runs, too.

Zaun is a better defensive catcher than Hernandez, but he’s been catching since Doug Ault was in Toronto (not really), and his contribution will not last the season. Of the NRIs, Robby Hammock might play, and he can at least hit the ball some. Chad Moeller and Guillermo Quiroz are in camp, but neither will be making a big contribution in the near future. Matt Wieters has a job as soon as he’s ready.

One assumes that Huff should stay productive in his role, but he was so good last year, it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s off by ten runs this season.

There are, oh, 120 pitchers in camp in Ft. Lauderdale hoping to make the Orioles roster in April. Guthrie is still here, and Rich Hill arrives from Chicago trying to put his career back together. Hill would be a step up if he brings his best game. The rest are a bunch of unknowns. Matt Alberts was better as a reliever, but he could start some and be an improvement of ten runs over somebody. Brian Bass comes over from Minnesota where, as a reliever, he wasn’t special. As a starter he was tolerable here in Baltimore. He might get a shot. Troy Patton came over with the Tejada deal, he might be ready for a few starts. George Sherrill needs to up his performance – and someone else needs to help out in the bullpen.

The problem is that they are all unproven rookies or second year guys. Could they be better? Sure – but it’s just not something you can predict with any dependability.

As such, I see the runs scored/runs allowed breakdown to be somewhere around 800/850, which translates to about 76 wins. In this division, that’s a tall order, but there are enough pieces to see a better team in Baltimore. If one or two pitchers step up in the rotation – a Hill and a Sherrill, for example – suddenly these guys are approaching .500 – and that’s pretty impressive. When a few more young arms make it to the majors, this team might be ready to compete for a playoff spot.

Down on the Farm…

AAA Norfolk’s best hitter was Oscar Salazar (13 – 85 – .316), who got a cup of coffee with the big league club and played well. He could have slid into the first base slot, and may well get this job after spending a decade in the minors (he’s 30). He’s just been blocked everywhere he’s been (Oakland, the Mets, Detroit, Kansas City, Anaheim, and Cleveland), and he wasn’t a good enough middle infielder when he was younger. However, with the ability to play the whole infield, he’s a good bench option. Radhames Liz and Jim Miller pitched well enough to earn shots with the parent club last year.

Matt Wieters, the future catcher, hit .365 at AA Bowie in 208 at bats, with 12 homers and 51 RBI. He can’t be far off… Lou Montanez and Nolan Reimhold hit for power; Montanez had the higher batting average, but Reimhold has the better plate discipline. David Hernandez and Chris Tillman led a quartet of Bay Sox pitchers to double-digit victories (the others were Brad Bergeson and Jason Berken, two other potential studs). Both showed killer K/9 rates and will be in line for rotation spots by 2010 if not sometime this summer. Julio Manon dominated as the closer – he’s just not a young prospect. He’s 36 this summer.

Cole McMurray and Pat Egan led the hurlers at Aberdeen (High A), with closer Brandon Cooney (from nearby Florida Atlantic – near me, anyway) showing strong numbers. Other than Wieters, the Frederick Keys also had first baseman Brandon Snyder (15 – 80 – .315) and pitchers Brandon Erbe and Jake Arrieta, who both had strong strikeout numbers if not solid won-loss records.

2009 Season Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays

Posted on March 20, 2009 by Paul Proia

Toronto Blue Jays
2008: 86-76 (3rd AL East, 11 games back)

If the Tampa Bay Rays were the team of destiny, then the Blue Jays represent the team of destiny lost. My pick to win the wild card, the Blue Jays played just as well as Tampa, but didn’t play as well as they should have – and probably could have. Allowing just 610 runs, the Blue Jays had the best pitching/defense combination in the American League. Their offense was below average – only three teams scored fewer runs – but because they outscored their opponents by 104 runs, you would have expected this team to win 93 or 94 games. They didn’t. They missed that mark by 7 or 8 games, enough to have projected them into the race on the last weekend of the season had they just done what was expected.

Looking Back on 2008

Every good team has a bad month. Toronto had two – one in April, the other in June. That made it seem like the Jays were out of it all season. Losers of eight of nine as the month closed, the Jays fell to the bottom of the division and had a long climb to get back in the race.

Then, after a decent May – actually, let’s call it what it was – an awesome May, where Toronto climbed all the way back to 31 – 26, the Blue Jays hit a HUGE losing stretch. Seven in a row and 15 losses in 19 games put the season out of its misery. And, yet, the Jays played three and a half solid months from there to get back to ten games over .500. They were just too far back with three really good teams ahead of them to make any headway.

Looking at team splits, the only thing that stands out is that they couldn’t hit left handed pitching. Righthanded hitters fared just as well against righties as southpaws, and left handed hitters couldn’t hit lefties at all – a .299 OBA and a .313 slugging percentage. That’s a good year for Mario Mendoza, perhaps, but not enough to win any ballgames.

Tell me about that offense

When you think about the big hitters of the AL East, do you think about anybody in Toronto? Frank Thomas was supposed to help, but 60 ugly at bats and that idea went out the window (and finally to Oakland). Vernon Wells hit well, but missed a third of the season with injuries. Alex Rios fought through nagging injuries and his own early season slump (tied to his signing a big contract and pressing?), but was rather ordinary in 600+ plate appearances. So, with the three best hitters looking rather pedestrian, the Jays were rarely going to blow away opponents.

Behind the plate, Rod Barajas was a below average contributor, producing 4.3 runs for every 27 outs. He has a little power (11 homers in 349 at bats), but hitting .249 with just 17 walks, he’s not helping the team keep rallies alive. This is his third straight year with comparable numbers (for three different teams), so the likelihood that he’s going to improve any is null. Greg Zaun backed him up and was no better – walked more, but hits for less power, and his batting average didn’t clear .240.

Lyle Overbay doesn’t hit nearly as well as his AL East brethren. His batting average fell to .271, with average power and some walks as he played through a hand injury. He’s an above average hitter – but not for a first baseman. He needs to get back to .300 with 20 homers, otherwise his bat in this lineup is a liability. Aaron Hill missed four months with post-concussion symptoms following a collision with David Eckstein. The two months he played weren’t his best months. Replacement Joe Inglett actually played pretty well – some speed, plate discipline, and the speed helps in hitting doubles and triples, making it look like he has some power (he doesn’t, really). The Jays tried David Eckstein at short, but he’s really not a good enough hitter (or fielder anymore), then tried John McDonald, who struggled at the plate and apparently it affected his fielding, and even tried Marco Scutaro there, who played well. Between the three, you had no better than league average hitting, though. At third, you had the regularly injured Scott Rolen, who batted like 80% of Scott Rolen – okay, but not a great hitter anymore. Scutaro played enough around the horn to get 517 just average at bats.

Consider this – all three teams that finished ahead of the Blue Jays last year are better at EVERY infield position. That’s a huge hole to fill when trying to win this division.

Moving to the outfield, Alex Rios was disappointing, maybe, but not a problem. He cleared 40 doubles, hit 8 triples, stole 32 bases, and was a decent outfielder. You wish he’d walk more, but he still put 100 runs on the scoreboard. Vernon Wells was a productive hitter, but missed a third of the season with hamstring problems (which, by the way, already recurred in spring training). The problem with losing Wells is that there were no backup outfielders who could help. The best left fielder (hitting-wise) was probably Adam Lind, and he’s tolerable. Brad Wilkerson was miserable, and former Jays outfielder Shannon Stewart was equally unproductive in 52 games. Having two less productive bats in the lineup (when Wells was out) didn’t help.

The DHs were awful, from Thomas, through Stairs (who was a league average hitter – which is weak for the spot), and Kevin Mench.

The team did hit better after John Gibbons was fired and Cito Gaston was made manager – but for the Jays to compete in 2009, they’ll need to get healthy seasons from Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, and Scott Rolen – and at this point, only one of three is really likely.

Defensively:

Normally, the Jays have a number of quality fielders helping the staff. The defense in 2009 was good – but not as good as it used to be.

Overbay remains one of the best fielding first basemen, period. If you don’t believe it, check out the putout numbers for his pitchers; 144, where no other was over 106. And, he still makes a lot of plays throwing out runners on the paths. Aaron Hill, normally at least a league average second sacker wasn’t in 2009. Joe Inglett was league average, but no better. Eckstein has lost a step (and his job), but John McDonald wasn’t very good last year, and Scott Rolen is less mobile than he used to be. Only Marco Scutaro looked like (and played like) a healthy and valuable defender. And he was good all over the infield.

In the outfield, Alex Rios is pretty good – he actually played very well in center while Wells was gone. Wells has been below average for each of the last three years in center – perhaps he should be in left with Rios in center. Lind, Wilkerson, and a host of others had scattered skill sets but basically helped make outs.

Behind the plate, Barajas and Zaun were as good as any tandem in the American League. They win more than they lost, the team ERA (despite the defense) was great, they were mobile, made few mistakes, and held the running game in check. Barajas caught 22 of the 64 people who tried to steal, one of the best in the AL.

Now Pitching…

The Tampa Bay Rays pitchers had decent ERAs and Hits/9 ratings in part because the defense behind them was so good that it likely saved everybody about 110 runs in 162 games. The Jays had off-seasons from a few players but remained agile in the field. And, with only 84 errors, the team rarely allowed unearned runs – which makes the pitching look a little stronger than it might be otherwise.

That being said, the Jays pitching is still great. Roy Halliday was a machine, winning 20 games, leading the league in complete games, and saving his team 40 runs more than the average pitcher – over a league leading 246 innings. The best pitcher in the AL, bar none. Behind him was A.J. Burnett, who won 18 games and led the league in strikeouts. Jesse Litsch and Shaun Marcum were given more prominent roles and combined to save the team 30 runs. Only the fifth slot, where Dustin McGowan and David Purcey struggled, was there an off slot in the rotation.

And, the bullpen was equally strong. B. J. Ryan returned from elbow surgery to save 32 games with a 2.95 ERA. Brian Tallett was successful in middle relief, and Jesse Carlson had a fine ERA and seven wins in relief. Carlson has good control and keeps the ball in the park, exactly what you want a seventh inning guy to do. Scott Downs was solid as the set up man, and two others, Shawn Camp and Jason Frasor were better than league average. With four good rotation slots and a complete bullpen, the Jays were able to stop other lineups and stay competitive despite a lack of support from their own hitters.

Forecasting 2009:

Cito Gaston lost a couple of key contributors and will be relying on other players to stay healthy in 2009. He needs a new #2 starter, and he could use three hitters to raise their gaimes.

McGowan was supposed to be the next rotation anchor, but hasn’t shown it yet. If he or Purcey can’t make significant strides, I don’t see who is going to replace Burnett. From a predictive standpoint, I don’t think Halliday stays 40 runs above average – maybe 25 after such a busy season. Throw in a drop from the #2 slot, and that’s probably a 30 run decline from last year. The bullpen had two or three guys pitching over their heads a bit – so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a ten run drop here, too.

Defensively, the team isn’t getting better. Hill may be back but he wasn’t magic. McDonald can’t hit well enough to play short – Scutaro may have to take his position. Rolen isn’t going to get better. Overbay is at his peak already. The outfield would be better if Wells were moved to a corner spot (he might not pull as many hamstrings, too), but I don’t see that Gaston has many options here. They will be relying on 20 year old Travis Snider, who has young legs but a build (5’ 11” and 245) that doesn’t suggest mobility. Oddly, the defense gets better when Wells is not in center. Michael Barrett will likely back up Barajas this year – on the whole the defense is probably a wash over last year but might fall back ten runs.

Offensively, there is room for improvement, but only because Hill could come back and Rios could step up, and Wells might play a full season, and because Kevin Millar or somebody should be a better DH than what has been there. Overbay could be better. Or – they could not. If the pitching and defense slides 40 to 50 runs (and it will), will the offense be 60 runs better? It should be better, but not that much better. Kevin Millar may be the DH – but he’s not that much better than what was here last year. I see the team scoring 25 runs more than last year – but no more than that.

That puts the runs scored/runs allowed at 740/670, which is still good enough to win 89 games. My hunch, though, is that even with Gaston running the ship, I have no idea how it’s going to be that good. The system says 89, but I say 83 or 84. The rest of the division is strong, the Orioles could be stronger, and even though Litsch and Marcum were good last year, they don’t give me the same feeling as 34 starts of A.J. Burnett.

Down on the Farm…

The Toronto AAA club, for years in Syracuse, will be in Las Vegas for 2009. Last year, Syracuse was devoid of prospects. The best players were discarded prospects like Buck Coats (former Cub), and Russ Adams (former Blue Jay starting shortstop), and they aren’t good enough to replace who is already here. If Coats or Adams could play short, they wouldn’t be logging time in the Syracuse outfield. The best AAA pitcher was John Parrish, a 30 year old Baltimore castoff, who went 9 – 1.

Robert Ray and Brad Mills pitched well for AA New Hampshire, but will likely start the year at AAA. Travis Snider made a AAA call and cup of coffee with Toronto after hitting 17 homers in 362 at bats as a 20 year old. He’ll be a major leaguer for a long time – and a DH by 2013. Scott Campbell, from Auckland, New Zealand, looks like a future second baseman and #2 hitter – he hits for a high average, walks some, but he’s not a burner.

Brian Dopirak continues to hit and hit for power, but can’t find his way past high A or AA. He was the leading threat for the Dunedin Blue Jays. He’s 25 now and has to move up quickly to have a career. Kenny Rodriguez didn’t have the best record, but he had the best stuff at Dunedin. The palindrome named Reidier Gonzalez went 12 – 4, but doesn’t strikeout enough guys to make it far in the big leagues. Mark Rzepczynski could win Scrabble tournaments with a name like that – but it’s his stuff that will get him promoted to AA soon. 124 Ks in 121 innings, few hits and homers allowed, and good control helped Mark to a winning record for the Lansing Lugnuts. A slew of 19 year olds got most of the at bats, but struggled to hit .250 on the season.

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