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2011 Season Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays

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Last Five Years:

2010: 85 – 77 (4th in AL East)
2009: 75 – 87
2008: 86 – 76
2007: 83 – 79
2006: 87 – 75

Consistently good, not always as competitive in the toughest division to win in baseball.

Runs Scored: 755 (6th in AL, but 4th in the AL East)
Runs Allowed: 728 (9th in AL)

With this combination of run scored and allowed, you’d expect 84 wins, so Toronto was pretty much on the money.

2010 Recap:

Most everyone had them fourth – so no surprises here.  Well, not at a team level anyway…  A LOT of surprises at the player level – but we’ll cover that down below.

After trading wins and losses for a month, the Blue Jays got hot in May and raced toward the top of the division.  Unfortunately, the Jays were equally cold in June and fell back to fourth.  June was their only losing month – from July 7th on, the Jays were 14 over .500, so if they hadn’t gone cold for the 30 days from June 6 to July 6, it’s very likely that the Jays could have sneaked into the playoffs.

What made Toronto competitive on heals of losing the best pitcher in their team’s history, Roy Halliday, was a BUNCH of home runs.  Jose Bautista hit 54, Vernon Wells slammed 31 dingers, John Buck had 20, Edwin Encarnacion hit 21, even Alex Gonzalez had 17 in just 85 games.  Aaron Hill didn’t hit much, but clocked 26 homers.  Adam Lind tallied 23, Lyle Overbay slashed 20, and even the half season of Travis Snider was good for 14.  Toronto hit 257 homers but only allowed 150, a gap that covered for other weaknesses.

During the season, the Jays made a few minor deals, but the one that made a splash was the trade in July that sent shortstop Alex Gonzalez and two minor leaguers to Atlanta for Yunel Escobar and Jo-Jo Reyes.

Starters:

As mentioned, Roy Halliday was gone, and the Blue Jays were forced to rely on a bunch of young arms – many of whom were returning from prior shoulder and elbow injuries.  Ricky Romero improved on an impressive 2009 rookie season and made 32 starts, logged 210 innings and win 14 games, pitching like an ace for much of the season.  Shaun Marcum returned to go 13 – 8 and missed by a start of hitting 200 innings.  Brett Cecil, the #1 pick in 2007, raced through the minors and showed moxie – leading the team with 15 wins.  Brandon Morrow, who never seemed to live up to the hype in Seattle, fanned 178 batters in just 146.1 innings, kept hitters off stride, and won 10 decisions.  The fifth starter role was given to Marc Rzepczynski and Dana Eveland, but at the end was given to former Phillie prospect Kyle Drabek, who looks to make the rotation in 2011.

Looking ahead, Shaun Marcum is gone, having been moved to Milwaukee for Brett Lawrie, a top second base prospect.  That leaves Romero, Cecil, Morrow, and either Rzepczynski, Drabek, Reyes, or Jesse Litsch – another former Jays starter coming back from hip surgery.  Drabek comes with the most hype – the top prospect in the Toronto chain, having gone 14 – 9 for New Hampshire in the Eastern League.  Reyes can pitch some, but more likely will start the year in the bullpen and pick up a start from time to time, which leaves Litsch and Rzepczynski battling for the fifth slot.  I think Drabek can be every bit as good as Marcum was in 2010, and if Litsch or Rzepczynski can make 25 healthy starts, this will be a slight improvement – if only because you won’t have the nine less than stellar starts of Dana Eveland in the mix (or, for that matter, Litsch’s nine less than impressive starts).

Bullpen:

Gone is Kevin Gregg, who saved 37 games last year.  Gregg is NOT a dominant closer – but rather a tolerable one,  He was ably supported by Shawn Camp, Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Casey Janssen, and David Purcey.

For 2011, the closer looks to be former Ranger closer Frank Francisco, who can be much better than Gregg but historically is just marginally better.  Other closers are in camp, including Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch, as well as Frasor, Janssen, Camp, and Purcey.  This is a very deep staff and should continue to keep Toronto in games.

Catching:

Last year’s duo of John Buck and Jose Molina were impressive defensively – above average in six different categories, and league average in terms of basic mobility.  Buck also hit well – an all-star level performance.

Looking ahead, Toronto will be depending on rookie J.P. Arencibia.  After struggling through a rough 2009 season in Las Vegas, Arencibia pounded PCL pitchers to the tune of 32 – 85 – .301 in 104 games.  That translates to about 20 – 65 – .250, which is not too far from a typical John Buck season.  Molina remains as a capable defensive backup.

Infield:

The changes continue from the infield that started the 2010 season.  Basher Jose Bautista showed to be more consistent at third than Edwin Encarnacion, who will move to first or DH in 2011.  Yunel Escobar can find his groove and hopefully contribute like the hitter he was in 2009, and second baseman Aaron Hill will rebound from his .205 2010 season and hopefully retain his power.  Adam Lind moves to first base, replacing Lyle Overbay.  I’m nervous about this unit.  The left side will be marginally better than 2010 defensively, but the right side will not be.  Lind has yet to produce as many runs as Overbay, and the 85 games Alex Gonzalez played were productive and hard to immediately replace.

John McDonald is still around to back everyone up – as is Encarncion.

Outfield:

Left field will be manned by former Angel Juan Rivera, who replaces Fred Lewis – a fourth outfielder at best.  While an improvement, Rivera is starting to get old and in ten seasons has never played 140 games in a season.  Vernon Wells is gone, replaced by Rajai Davis.  Davis is faster than Wells, but about 25 runs behind him as a hitter.  In right is Travis Snider, who replaces Bautista’s role.  Snider is due to step forward as a hitter, but hasn’t been a strong fielder.

Down on the Farm:

AAA Las Vegas wasn’t loaded with prospects other than Arencibia, who will start on opening day, and Brett Wallace, who was traded to Houston for Anthony Gose – a low level centerfielder with speed to burn, but a problem with contact and little power.  (I’ll be honest, I don’t see the reasoning there unless one thinks Wallace didn’t have a future in Toronto, but I think he’s better than Encarnacion.)

AA New Hampshire had Drabek, but also Zach Stewart, who is a year older but not quite as good.  David Cooper is a first baseman who has stats that look like Lyle Overbay – but at AA.  He might be a year away, but he’s not quite there yet.  Eric Thames has more power and a touch of speed.  He could replace Juan Rivera and you might not lose a step.  Darin Mastroianni is a leadoff type hitter, great speed and good on base percentages.  At 25, he’s getting old for a prospect, but he could help somebody for a months if needed.  The guy who is really interesting is Cuban import Adeiny Hechavarria, who looks like Davy Concepcion did when he was 21 years old – great glove, could grow into a hitter (but not yet).  Tristan Magnuson was successful as a reliever in AA, with great control, but Danny Farquhar has better stuff – 79Ks in 76 innings, just 50 hits allowed.  He’s a touch wild.

Alan Farina didn’t look like a prospect after a season of struggle at A+ Dunedin, but he DOMINATED A+ in 2010 and moved up to New Hampshire and kept right on going (74Ks in 55.2 innings).  If he does this in Las Vegas, he may make the roster in September, 2011.  Joel Carreno is a starter with moxie who will start in AA this year after a successful run in 2010 with Dunedin.  Catcher Travis D’Arnaud will get to build on a reasonably successful 2010 season, but it would help if he shows a little more power.

2011 Forecast:

There are things to like.  The outfield defense should be stronger.  The team will be spending less money at a couple of positions, which helped pay for a Jose Bautista contract.  The pitching staff is rather deep, especially in the bullpen.  The only slip defensively is at first base – which means the team will likely stay around 715 runs allowed, if not a few less than that.

The things that make you nervous?  I think the offense has to fall back.  I can see Bautista having a good season, but will it be as good as last year?  Probably not.  You have a drop in offense at first and center and possibly at catcher against potential improvements in left and second.  But there are too many “downs” to make up for the possible “ups” – and I see this as being sixty to eighty runs less than 2010.  As such, I see Toronto falling below .500 to about 77 – 85, which could very well be last in the AL East.  This isn’t a BAD team, just a team in the wrong division and falling back because a couple of guys were over their heads last year.  On the other hand, there are signs that this team is trying to build a new foundation of young players that can get them over the 90 win plateau and finally get back to the playoffs.

2010 Top AL Third Basemen

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Evan Longoria – TB (125.6 Runs Created, 31.1 Runs Saved = 156.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Not sure if people thought he was as good as Robinson Cano last year (including me), but once you add up the numbers, he was the most valuable player in the AL last year.  A remarkable ballplayer.

Adrian Beltre – BOS (116.5 Runs Created, 19.0 Runs Saved = 135.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Now THAT’s a contract year season, huh?  He has this kind of ability, and if he did this every year he’d be headed to the Hall of Fame.  Instead, he’s heading to Texas.  Kevin Youkilis, certainly capable of this kind of productivity when healthy, will get the nod in 2011.

Jose Lopez – SEA (60.7 Runs Created, 36.9 Runs Saved = 97.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Handled the move from second to third very nicely, playing with surprisingly good range and avoiding mistakes often made by first timers to the hot corner.  Doesn’t have much power left, and I don’t think he can repeat this performance.  Now, he’s in Colorado, which means that Chone Figgins will return to third base.

Miguel Tejada – BAL (75.8 Runs Created, 21.2 Runs Saved = 97.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Wasn’t really cutting it offensively, but did a great job as a third baseman.  Was sent to San Diego for the stretch drive where he returned to the shortstop position and gave him a little bit of life.  He can still play well enough to help somebody.  Josh Bell didn’t cut it as his back up, and former Snake basher, Mark Reynolds, will get the job in 2010.

Michael Young – TEX (94.0 Runs Created, -10.3 Runs Saved = 83.7 Total Runs Productivity)

Plays every day, hits a bit, and got better defensively in his second year at the position.  Yes – Beltre is a step up from Young, but you don’t want guys like Young to go away.  Could get 150 games backing up both Kinsler and Beltre and playing DH from time to time.

Alex Rodriguez – NYY (85.0 Runs Created, -2.4 = 82.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Superficially, he hit the 30/100 milestones.  Defensively, he’s gotten better the longer he has played third base, but his bat is slipping (age, lack of chemical help) and his health is no longer dependable for 150 games.

Mark Reynolds, your new Oriole 3B, would rank here at 79.7 Total Runs Productivity…

Brandon Inge – DET (67.6 Runs Created, 11.0 Runs Saved = 78.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Can still play the position well, but is – at best – a league average hitter.

At 71.8 Total Runs Productivity, former Indian Jhonny Peralta would rank here.  I just can’t tell if he’s moving back to third base soon.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – OAK (64.0 Runs Created, -1.5 Runs Saved = 62.5 Total Runs Productivity)

A dependable player, but not one you can build a team around.

Alberto Callaspo – KC/LAA (66.4 Runs Created, -7.5 Runs Saved = 58.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Has had better years, but I’m not sure he’s a long term solution for the Angels, who gave up on their other options in 2010.  The Royals gave the job to Wilson Betemit, but he’ll be a bench option before too long.  For the Angels, it’s hard to see who might be the third baseman of the future – so Callaspo better put his career back in gear.

Danny Valencia – MIN (48.8 Runs Created, -1.2 Runs Saved = 47.6 Total Runs Productivity)

The Boca Raton native and Hurricane grad got the call in 2010 and did well enough, helping produce a few runs and battling the position to a draw.  He might show a little more power as he ages, but isn’t going to be a bomber.  I’d call him the new Joe Randa.  Nick Punto and Brendan Harris are both pretty good third baseman (Punto with the glove and Harris, occasionally, with the bat), but Punto will start 2011 on the DL following surgery to repair a sports hernia and Harris is in Baltimore where he may or may not play 100 games.

Edwin Encarnacion – TOR (48.1 Runs Created, -4.5 Runs Saved = 43.6 Total Runs Productivity)

Not very consistent, but he really can be a good player.  Bautista, if he played here every day and hit like he did last year would move WAY up the list, and he handled the position defensively better than Edwin did.

Jayson Nix – CLE (35.0 Runs Created, 1.8 Runs Saved = 36.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Not even sure he’ll start, since MLB.com lists Jason Donald as the prospective starting third baseman (and he didn’t log an inning at third in 2010) – which makes it hard to figure who to draft in a full AL Only fantasy league.  Neither Donald, Nix, or Andy Marte cut it last year after Peralta left.

Wilson Betemit – 53.4 Runs Created, -21.4 Run Saved = 32.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Hit better than he would have expected (13 – 43 – .297 in 84 games), and fielded much worse than expected.  He’s really somewhere in between there and worth having on the team.  However, the Michael Moustakas era will begin in 2011 – and the question is how long will the Royals wait for that to get started?  Opening Day?  June – to push back arbitration eligibility a year?  Moustakas hit 36 homers in AA and AA last year and is just 22.

Mark Teahen – CHI (28.0 Runs Created, -9.9 Runs Saved = 18.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Reason #2 why the White Sox didn’t win the AL Central.  Teahen was brought here from Kansas City to at least give league average production, and he couldn’t stay healthy, he couldn’t hit enough, and his glove wasn’t working either at three positions.  May get another chance, but I’m not sure I’d want to be the guy to give it to him.  Brett Morel may be the man of the future, having earned a shot after three solid years of growth in the minors.  Morel looks like he has a little power and a little speed – and at 24 just after Opening Day, he has room for growth.

Omar Vizquel – CHI (38.8 Runs Created, -27.0 Runs Saved = 11.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Reason #1 why the White Sox didn’t win the AL Central.  Vizquel was pressed into playing more than 500 innings here, after never being a third baseman before.  He’s not the run producer most teams expect at this position, and he looked very much old and out of place.

Brandon Wood – LAA (8.9 Runs Created, -11.4 Runs Saved = -2.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Can we declare his days as a prospect over now?

2010 Season Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays

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Last Five Years:

2009: 75 – 87 (4th AL East)
2008: 86 – 76
2007: 83 – 79
2006: 87 – 75
2005: 80 – 82

Runs Scored: 798 (6th AL)
Runs Allowed: 771 (12th AL)

Having outscored their opponents by 27 runs, the Jays should have won about 84 games.  This isn’t the first time that Toronto has won fewer games than one might expect based on their runs scored and allowed data.  In 2008, they were ten games over .500 with essentially the same ratio of runs as the World Series bound Tampa Rays.  In 2007, the Jays scored one fewer run than they allowed in road games, but lost 47 of 81 games.  And that 2005 club finished under .500 despite outscoring their opponents by 70 runs.  That’s four of five years that Roy Halliday thinks that he should have been on a contending team – only to fall by the wayside.

Who should be held responsible for this?

Season Recap:

Most teams had the Jays landing in fourth place in the prediction category, but most of us figured it would have been more like 85 wins.

The Jays got off to a GREAT start.  It wasn’t long before Toronto, led by Halliday, Scott Richmond, and Ricky Romero, were running off and looking like they would be a force in the AL Beast.  After sweeping the Chicago White Sox on May 18, Toronto hit a SLUMP – all CAPS because they lost nine straight, six to Boston and Baltimore.  Rumors that Halliday was to be traded starting dominating the news – when it wasn’t some member of the rotation going down to injury – and I think the Jays got horribly distracted.

I know this – the team’s OBP every month was about .333 except July, when they must have started swinging at everything.  The OBP in July was .298.  So, even though the pitching staff was still getting the job done (a 3.81 ERA, best of the year), they couldn’t win, and it was July that put them out.

At this point, the Jays lost a lot – killing off the season as July started and finally bottoming out after reaching fifteen below .500 in early September.  Halliday never got traded and, in fact, once the team figured out they had better just enjoy being a team the rest of the way, the team had a winning September when it didn’t matter.

Pitching:

Roy Halliday was marvelous – 17 – 10 with a 2.50 ERA and saving his club 47 runs more than average pitching would have provided.  Ricky Romero finished with 13 wins and was about 8.5 runs better than average in 178 innings.  Scott Richmond lost 11 of his last 15 decisions, costing his team 14.5 runs, and then hit the DL where he’ll likely miss most of 2010.  Brian Tallett got 160 innings and his control got the best of him.  Brett Cecil got 17 starts, had a winning record, but seemed very hittable (5.30 ERA, 17 homers and 116 hits in 93.1 innings).

On the other hand, Marc Rzepczynski proved a potential rotation player with 11 decent enough starts – and hopefully can build on that for 2010.

In the bullpen, a closer could not keep a job.  B.J. Ryan wasn’t worthy – 6.53 ERA – and was shipped out.  Scott Downs hung in there for a while with 9 saves and decent numbers (good control); Jason Frasor was even better and eventually earned the closer role for good.

No worries – for 2010, the pitching staff will look different with Halliday having been shipped to Philadelphia for a boatload of prospects.

First, Shaun Marcum returns from an injury forced exile to take over the front of the rotation.  I like Marcum – he’s a fine pitcher, but he’s no Halliday.  Romero returns, as does Rzepczynski and Tallett, with former Mariner Brandon Morrow joining the rotation to take the ball in the first inning every fifth turn.

Marcum has always been an above average pitcher – but not 40 runs above average.  And Morrow has never been dependable as a starter.  Even Tallett is a converted reliever – which means his arm hasn’t been abused, but he needs to find consistency this year.

The bullpen starts with Frasor, but adds Kevin Gregg from the Cubs.  Scott Downs returns and will help.  Jesse Carlson and Jeremy Accardo round out the top five.  Gregg is inconsistent, too – but he’ll be a nice eighth inning option.  There is more depth here than in, say Baltimore.  I like Baltimore’s rotation better, though.

Looking forward, I see this unit performing about 50 runs worse than the 2009 rotation – mostly because Halliday won’t be there.  That puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen, and the sixth and seventh guys.  And THOSE aren’t the guys you want pitching important innings.

Catching:

Rod Barajas provided solid catching, but couldn’t get his batting average over .230.  Still – he had 19 homers and 71 RBI.  Essentially, the Blue Jays replaced him with the same guy – former Royal John Buck.  Buck can get the same numbers at the plate but probably not behind it; Buck isn’t as good as Barajas against the run.

Infield:

Lyle Overbay didn’t seem as mobile with the glove, and with a falloff at the plate, he was a bit of a problem.  Overbay ISN’T a bad first baseman.  Usually he makes up for his lack of power with fantastic fielding.  If he’s not going to be a gold glove winner, then his bat – still above average – looks pedestrian when compared to others.  His backup, Kevin Millar, didn’t help at the plate or in the field.

Aaron Hill came back from concussion issues to give head injuries to the baseball, hitting 36 homers and another 37 doubles.  Hill was nearly an MVP candidate.

Marco Scutaro was an amazing leadoff hitter, getting on base at a .383 clip and scoring 100 runs.  Backup infielder John McDonald still fields well, but his hitting is pedestrian.

The Jays started with Scott Rolen, who hit .320 (who saw THAT?), but was traded to Cincinnati for Edwin Encarnacion – who didn’t.  Rolen was traded because he was expensive, but at least he was producing.

For 2010, the infield still has Overbay and Hill, but the other side of the infield features Alex Gonzalez, who has little range and a fading bat.  He WON’T generate 100 runs of offense, and he’ll be worse in the field than the below average Scutaro.  Rolen, until the injuries, was know for being dependable – something Encarnacion is not – and he won’t ever hit like Rolen, either.  I can’t see Hill repeating, Overbay may slide some more, and the other two will KILL the Blue Jays offense.  Look for a 80 run decline offensively and a 20 run decline defensively.

Outfield:

Yes – Alex Rios was disappointing when considering his pay and his production.  However, Rios is an above average fielder and hitter.  He’s gone.  Jose Bautista, who was nearly as productive and cheaper, will get the nod in right field.  It’s no better than a wash going forward.

Vernon Wells remains in centerfield.  He’s old, has had below average range for half a decade now, and will have hamstring problems until he’s 100.  He’s no longer capable of 20 homers and doesn’t get on base much.  He also has a contract nobody else wants.

In left, Adam Lind will be a DH (whew!) but Travis Snider needs to step forward.  There’s a lot to like – he has power, but needs to make better contact.  At least he’ll get to more fly balls than Lind.  Randy Ruiz, a slugger, will also get some more at bats after hitting ten homers in 115 at bats last year.  Like Lind, Ruiz is immobile in the field, too.

I don’t think Bautista is a long-term answer and if Wells go down (and he will), they’ll need to get Phillies prospect Michael Taylor to the big leagues.

Prospects:

First, you have the prospects that the Jays got in the Halliday trade.  one, catcher Travis D’Arnaud, will make the club in a couple of years.  Pitcher Kyle Drabek will be allowed to find his feet in AAA before moving up to the bigs later this year.  And Michael Taylor isn’t listed on the 25 man roster, so he’ll get some time to prove his worth before getting the call.

Looking at AAA Las Vegas, you have to remember that to be a prospect, you have to hit about .330 – like Travis Snider.  J.P. Arencibia would be a better power prospect if he hit .336, but he hit .236 instead.  Other than Snider, who should be ready, nobody else is a prospect for the lineup.  For the same reason, pitching prospects never look so good – so you want good control and an ERA under 4.00 and there just aren’t that many who fit that bill.  Dirk Hayhurst might be close – but he starts 2010 on the 60-day DL after surgery on his right shoulder.  Maybe he can come back in 2011.

At AA New Hampshire, Reidier Gonzalez showed control but not enough strikeouts in his 93 innings.  Fabio Castro, a tiny lefty who has seven years with four franchises, looked okay but doesn’t have a strikeout pitch that he can depend on as he moves up and faces AAA hitting.

The best hitter at AA was Brian Dopirak, who hasn’t yet made it to the bigs but is starting to look like he might hit about .270 with some power if he gets there.  Dopirak hit .308 with 19 homers in New Hampshire, then .330 with 8 homers in Las Vegas.  With Overbay around, he won’t get a chance without someone getting hurt.

A+ Dunedin featured Darin Mastroianni, a speedy centerfielder who can steal bases (70 in Dunedin and New Hampshire last year) and finally started to look like a hitter last year.  He needs to keep drawing more walks to look like a Brett Butler type, but he made progress on that last year, too – 76 in 131 games.  Pitcher Bobby Bell had 112 Ks and just 22 walks in 96.1 innings, but the real ace might be reliever Tim Collins, a teenager last year, who had 99 Ks and 29 walks in just 64.2 innings.  That’s CLOSER material, and I’d name him as the most exciting prospect on the farm.

The Lansing Lugnuts featured a few young arms with promise.  Of them, I like Henderson Alvarez, who walked just 19 in 124.1 innings and led his team in Innings, ERA and wins.

Forecast:

Let the rebuilding begin.  We’re talking about a team that is going to lose 100 runs of offense, probably, and another 80 runs defensively.  Toronto will likely lose 95 games and possibly 100, costing Cito Gaston his sanity if not his job.  The system says 65.5 wins, but I’m rounding down in this division.

2010 Season Forecast: Cincinnati Reds

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Last Five Seasons:
2009: 78 – 84 (4th NL Central)
2008: 74 – 88
2007: 72 – 90
2006: 80 – 82
2005: 73 – 89

The Reds haven’t had a winning season since going 85 – 77 in 2000.  It’s time to fix this problem, don’t you think?

Runs Scored: 673 (10th in the NL)
Runs Allowed: 723 (8th in the NL)

Season Recap:

Most observers were mixed, but one could see hope on the horizon in guys like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and what looked like four potentially good starters.  I’m sure the Reds fans thought they should have finished better than .500.

The Reds actually got off to a pretty good start.  At one point, Cincinnati was 20 – 14 with Johnny Cueto at 4 – 1, Bronson Arroyo at 5 – 2 and Edinson Volquez at 4 – 2.  And then the bad things started to happen.  Joey Votto got hurt – and his confidence was suddenly shaken, requiring extra time to come to grips with being out of the lineup and being without his father who had passed away.  Volquez went down with an arm injury, taking their ace out of the rotation.  After two months looking like a contender, the Reds fell off in June and then fell APART in July.

Cincinnati was 40 – 39 on the Fourth of July.  And then the roof caved in falling all the way to 45 – 61 after a loss to Chicago on August 3.  The team couldn’t hit – as a group, they batted .240 or less in June, July and August.  In July, Red pitchers had an ERA of 5.58 and while August was better, it was their second worst complete month.

To their credit, the Reds unloaded a few problems (Edwin Encarnacion was traded to Toronto for Scott Rolen, Alex Gonzalez was sent to Boston and Paul Janish played shortstop), and got Willy Taveras and his lousy bat out of the leadoff spot.  Homer Bailey finally started pitching like a winner.  Justin Lehr replaced Micah Owings in the rotation and won five of eight decisions.  The rest of the way, the Reds went 33 – 23, which was better than even St. Louis down the stretch.

Pitchers:

Having looked at the numbers, adjusting for the defense and the park, I noticed this odd fact.  Every pitcher who made a start allowed more runs per nine than the average NL pitcher – a combined 77 runs worse than average.  Bronson Arroyo was the closest to average at -0.95, and having pitched the most innings, he’s the ace.  Johnny Cueto had his second straight season of running out of gas – he needs to step up big time in 2010.  Aaron Harang should be better than this (6 – 14, 4.21)), and yet he’s constantly moving backwards.  Micah Owings is the best hitting pitcher ever, probably, but he would have fit in with the Brewers rotation as badly as he pitched.  Homer Bailey was on the way to positives, but he didn’t quite make it before the season ended.  Even Edinson Volquez didn’t fare exceedingly well in his nine starts.

So, that the Reds went out of the box and signed Aroldis Chapman – who may wind up the fifth starter (crazy, I know it) – was a HUGE step forward.  The 20 year old with a 102 mile an hour fastball might start the year in AA, but in a year or two, he could be a serious ace.

If the Reds want to win, their starters have to step up.  Arroyo has to hold steady, Harang has to find his mojo, Cueto has to become a REAL #2 starter, and Bailey has to make 25 good starts and not 10.  The guy who might make this interesting, but isn’t guaranteed a roster spot is Matt Maloney, who had seven tolerable starts but gave up nine homers.  Everything else looks good (28Ks against 8 walks, for example).

The bullpen was pretty good, though.  Francisco Cordero was great, Nick Massett was solid, and even Arthur Rhodes – who pitched in Baltimore when Mike Flanagan was still pitching – was really good.  If Maloney isn’t going to start, he’s a good long relief option.  After that, you have a few “ifs” in Danny Herrera, Carlos Fisher, and Jared Burton.  These are guys who aren’t bad and would help more IF they could also step forward.

I like Harang to come back some, Cueto and Bailey to improve some more, and Micah Owings to play right field before too long.  I see at least a 25 run net gain.  A streak of confidence might make it 50.  That’s optimistic, though.

Catchers:

It’s the same group as last year – Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan.  Combined, they provided slightly better than league average catching, and slightly below average hitting.  The hope, I guess, is that Hernandez stays healthy, but he’s turning 34 in May, so I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.

Infielders:

Joey Votto is the real deal – like Ryan Braun, Votto is a threat to win a triple crown.  It would be nice if the Reds wouldn’t do goofy things like force Ramon Hernandez to first base, but when Votto went down, Dusty Baker decided that Hernandez was Victor Martinez.  He’s not.  (He’s actually a better fielder, but not a hitter.)

Brandon Phillips remains a great second baseman; durable, a defender, and one of the most productive players in the game.

After a year of letting Alex Gonzalez try to regain his youth, the Reds are going with veteran Orlando Cabrera.  This HAS to go better, wouldn’t you think?  Paul Janish played spectacularly with the glove, but hits like Mark Belanger, too.

Arriving in a trade, Scott Rolen takes over at third base and if he can fight father time will be a step up over Edwin Encarnacion.

The bench now includes Aaron Miles and Paul Janish, capable gloves even if the bats aren’t really strong.  Drew Sutton is also around, but likely will wind up at AAA.  And, the ancient Miguel Cairo got a Non-Roster Invite – he could sneak in there.

All told, I like this group to be 30 – 40 runs more productive offensively, and perhaps five runs better defensively.  Only Rolen’s health makes me nervous – but at .255 and some power, he’s an improvement.  And, Cabrera could get old this year – but he’ll be better than Gonzalez.

Outfielders:

This is a young group and I think will be better next year because Willy Taveras is gone.  Chris Dickerson isn’t a huge power threat, but he was an above average hitter at 5.4 runs per 27 outs.  Give him 500 at bats, and that’s a step up.  Jonny Gomes will get at bats (and not catch flies) after hitting 20 homers last season.  And I don’t believe that Jay Bruce will hit .223 again (but he might hit 30 homers).  Add to that Drew Stubbs, who hit .267 with some power after taking over for Taveras in center.  I’m not convinced he’s better than Chris Dickerson (in part because that power isn’t to be expected and he doesn’t have enough patience), but BOTH guys would be better than Taveras.

Arriving from Seattle is Wladimir Balentien, who played well after arriving in late July- but had been disappointing as a Mariner.  I like him as a fourth or fifth outfielder.  Can Micah Owings shag flies?  Put him in left field and let the man hit.  Put him at first base when Joey Votto needs a day off and let him hit.  Sheesh.

I see perhaps 50 more runs of offense in 2010 from the outfield, with the defense holding steady – and improving if Gomes is a pinch hitter and not a regular outfielder.

Prospects:

The best players in AAA already started getting playing time – Stubbs, Maloney, Lehr, Bailey.  Aroldis Chapman may not see any minor league time, and we already mentioned him.  So, if you are looking for prospects, we have to look to the lower levels.

Travis Wood is close.  At AA Carolina, he went 9 – 3 with a 1.21 ERA (!), in part because he allowed just two homers and had a 3:1 K/W ratio.  He earned a shot at AAA where he had eight decent starts.  His minor league career has been a bit uneven, so look for Wood to start the year in AAA, but get the first shot at the majors if someone falters.  Chris Heisey had an amazing half season at AA, hitting .347 with 13 homers, walking as often as he struck out, and earning a trip to AAA with Wood.  He didn’t quite keep up the same pace, but his four years in the minors have shown Heisey to be a hitter.  He’ll get another shot at AAA because the Reds have outfield options right now.

Another AA prospect is first baseman Yonder Alonso, the 2008 first round pick out of Miami, who smoked his way through rookie, A, and into AA last year.  He’s got some pop, patience, and a .300 average in the minors.  Alonso’s spot would seem to be blocked in the majors, though – so the question will be can he move to the outfield, or will he be moved for a pitcher.  I think he looks like a young Eddie Murray…  Todd Frazier, a 2007 top pick (1A), has hit well, with patience and power, but might not have the range at short and is blocked at second.  Frazier MIGHT get a shot, though, if someone gets injured.

Recent early picks aren’t making the same progress.  Catcher Devin Mesoraco (2007 – #1) hasn’t hit much in the minors.  Kyle Lotzkar walks a lot of batters (24 in 37.2 innings at A Dayton) but, more importantly, has to recover from a broken bone in his elbow that caused him to miss the 2009 season.

Forecast:

I like the Reds to make a splash in 2010.  I think the offense might be 80 runs better than last year, with improvement in the outfield and at two infield positions.  The defense may be a little better – and there is room for improvement on the staff.  I see Cincinnati scoring 750 runs and allowing perhaps 680 – and it could be less.  I have them at 89 wins, which isn’t out of the range of possibility.  If SOMEBODY can pitch like an ace, look out.

If asked to name a sleeper to make the World Series, it’s the Cincinnati Reds.

Top NL Third Basemen in 2009

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Ryan Zimmerman (WAS):  The Evan Longoria of the National League – hits for a decent average, has solid power, gets on base, and flashes the leather.  As a hitter, I show Zimmerman as actually creating three more runs than Longoria, but Longoria had the better season defensively.  The best player the Nationals have ever had.  (117.9 Runs Created, 15.0 Runs Saved = 132.82 Total Run Production)

Casey Blake (LAD):  Had a decent season with the bat and an unbelievable year with the glove.  Kemp, Loney, and Ethier get all the pub, but Casey Blake was second on the team in total production.  I went back and checked – he hadn’t played that well at third defensively before, so I won’t be surprised if he falls back in 2010, but his offensive numbers were in line with previous seasons.  Another guy the Indians couldn’t use…  (91.1 Runs Created, 25.23 Runs Saved = 116.35 Total Run Production)

Pablo Sandoval (SF):  Kung Fu Panda is a first baseman in waiting, but wow can he hit.  He wasn’t AWFUL at third base, just below average defensively, but you can live with it if he hits .330 with 25 homers.  The new Kirby Puckett.  (122.4 Runs Created, -6.4 Runs Saved = 115.94 Total Run Production)

Mark Reynolds (ARI):  As long as we’re comparing people, Reynolds is an upgrade over Adam Dunn, right?  He strikes out a LOT – but 44 homers and a .351 OBP is really good production.  However just 102 RBI suggests that he’d be even more productive for his teammates if he would just make more contact.  Not a horrible fielder either – slightly better than the Panda.  (104.6 Runs Created, -4.4 Runs Saved = 100.26 Total Run Production)

Andy LaRoche (PIT):  Did you know he had that good a glove?  Just an ordinary hitter – .260 with .400 SLG and a few walks throw in for good – but his defense moved him well up the list.  You can’t sneeze at 34 double plays to just 14 errors.  (69.0 Runs Created, 30.3 Runs Saved = 99.29 Total Run Production)

Jorge Cantu (FLA):  If a third baseman and not a first baseman, Cantu would rank about here.  Maybe a slot or two lower.

Pedro Feliz (PHI):  Had Andy LaRoche’s season with more RBI because of who he bats behind.  Polanco has a better batting average, but I don’t think he’ll match Feliz with the leather.  Feliz’s problem, if he has one, is that he makes too many outs.  You want guys who average at least 5 runs for every 27 outs, and Feliz is consistently around 4.2.  However, there aren’t many guys who save you 20 runs a year with the leather – and he’s been there three of the last four years (only an injury riddled 2008 didn’t add up).  So, you might concede 20 runs of offense for that.  I like Polanco, but Feliz was a big part of the Phillies’ success.  (68.6 Runs Created, 24.5 Runs Saved = 93.15 Total Run Production)

David Wright (NYM):  Not his best effort, but then again I think the park worked against him, and the injuries around him worked against him, and eventually he was dragged down by the entirety of it all.  He still produced runs – he batted .307 and got on base nearly 40% of the time.  However, his home run numbers dashed (the Mets are lowering the left field wall for 2010) and he took his frustration to the field – only 19 double plays against 18 errors.  I like his chances to bounce back some, but he’s never going to be as good as Ryan Zimmerman.  I just hope the Mets appreciate what he does and doesn’t focus on that gap between Wright and the top guys.  (102.9 Runs Created, -13.3 Runs Saved = 89.61 Total Run Production)

Scott Rolen (TOR/CIN):  Add it all up and he ranks about here.  I don’t think he’s a .320 hitter, as he was in Toronto for the first 100 days, but he still has skills.  He is NOT a glove man anymore, and while he’s more dependable than Edwin Encarnacion, he may not be healtier every month.  Still a good player, though.  (84.1 Runs Created, -5.6 Runs Saved = 78.5 Total Run Production)

Juan Uribe (SF):  If rated as a third baseman would fall about here.  He’s a solid player.

Chipper Jones (ATL):  His OBP is still strong, but the end is nearing for this future Hall of Famer.  Hasn’t really measured up with the glove in years, and his offensive numbers – while still pretty good – are heading in the wrong direction.  (87.7 Runs Created, -18.1 Runs Saved = 69.56 Total Run Production)

Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD):  Only three errors last year – one of the best fielding percentages of all time.  Of course, he doesn’t have much range – so that makes him Ron Cey with longer legs.  He’ll help the A’s, though.  (78.0 Runs Created, -8.9 Runs Saved = 69.05 Total Run Production)

Casey McGehee (MIL):  Had a solid season at the plate (.301 AVG, .499 SLG), taking over for Bill Hall (who didn’t) and was tolerable with the glove.  If he plays 150 games, he might move up two or three slots in the rankings for 2010.  (68.3 Runs Created, -4.1 Runs Saved = 64.27 Total Run Production)

Aramis Ramirez (CHC):  I don’t know if he’ll ever play 120 games again – his body just breaks down constantly now.  Still a formidable offensive force, his glove is merely average these days.  Makes the Cubs better when he’s in there, though.  (58.1 Runs Created, -1.0 Runs Saved = 57.02 Total Run Production)

Mark DeRosa (CLE/STL):  Struggled upon arriving in STL, but his defense had been off all season.  Reaching the age at which a comeback isn’t in the Cards – but the Cards will be counting on one.  (77.6 Runs Created, -26.8 Runs Saved – 50.80 Total Run Production)

Emilio Bonifacio (FLA):  Really fast.  Had an awesome first week of the season and then reverted to where I thought he’d be – which is not much of a hitter and slightly out of position at third base.  In Florida, though, he’s the new Alfredo Amezaga.  (44.0 Runs Created, -7.7 Runs Saved = 36.22 Total Run Production)

Ian Stewart (COL):  A Garrett Atkins clone.  Hits for some power, his batting average should scare you, and he can’t field the position.  New Rockie Melvin Mora is a significant step up, even at this point in Mora’s career.  (58.1 Runs Created, -23.4 Runs Saved = 34.68 Total Run Production).

Edwin Encarnacion (CIN/TOR):  I don’t know why Toronto would want him.  Indifferent fielder and not a dependable hitter.  Probably one more year of 100 games in his career, and the rest of the time he’ll be a back up or playing in AAA as an insurance policy for somebody.  Maybe he needs to go to Japan.  (39.8 Runs Created, -7.2 Runs Saved = 32.6 Total Run Production)

Wes Helms (FLA):  Back up third baseman and professional pinch hitter – but ranked nearly as high as Stewart in far less time.  (30.19 Total Run Productiom)

Garrett Atkins (COL):  See Ian Stewart.  (33.4 Runs Created, -7.4 Runs Saved = 25.98 Total Run Production)

Geoff Blum (HOU):  See Ian Stewart – but with less power.  If Houston wants to be serious about fixing the problems on the team, it should start with replacing Blum.  (46.2 Runs Created, -23.6 Runs Saved = 22.62 Total Run Production)

Top AL Third Basemen in 2009

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Evan Longoria (TB):  No sophomore slump here, huh?  One of the better offensive performers (33 – 113 – .281), draws a few walks, and is as good a defender at his position as there is in the game.  Other than a couple of first basemen and maybe Joe Mauer, nobody was more valuable in the American League.  (114.0 Runs Scored, 31.91 Runs Saved = 146.76 Total Run Production)

If he was a full time third baseman, Kevin Youkilis would rate next.

Chone Figgins (LAA):  Gets on base, runs the bases well, and had an above average season with the glove – a sign that he’s getting more comfortable over there now that he’s not being used like a super utility player. Seattle will like having him at the front of the line up.  (104.3 Runs Created, 7.5 Runs Saved = 111.86 Total Run Production.)

If you are an Angels fan, you probably want to know more about Brandon Wood.  Wood has been the power hitting infielder in waiting for what seems like a small eternity.  Wood was a first round draft pick back in 2003, and has had seasons at Rancho Cucamonga and Salt Lake City that would suggest that he’s the next Troy Glaus.  Personally, I don’t buy it.  Now, he’s struggled to hit .190 in the majors because he’s spent a lot of time going back and forth between Salt Lake City and Los Angeles.  He’s really only had one month where he got some regular MLB playing time – and that month he hit about .250 with a little power.  And that’s where I think he’ll be.  As a rule of thumb, you can usually look at PCL stats and knock 50 points of the batting average and about 40% of the power off the top.  In three seasons of AAA ball, Wood has hit between .270 and .295 with 25 homer power.  That translates to about 15 homers and a .245 batting average.  I’d like to think, hitting at the bottom of the lineup, he’d be okay.  Wood might do a bit better than that – the way Kendry Morales jumped up and hit like a monster.  A bit better than that is 20 homers and .260 – which is decent enough if he brings a solid glove and improves his strikeout/walk ratio.  Wood turns 25 in March, which is a bit long in the tooth for a prospect.

Alex Rodriguez (NYY):  Missed a month following hip surgery, and then needed some time to get back into playing shape.  After the all-star break, he was dominating at times – including during the playoffs.  Is getting better defensively, but has never been an above average fielder.  Would he still be this good had he not spent years on the juice?  (100.3 Runs Created, -6.50 Runs Saved = 93.76 Total Run Production)

Jhonny Peralta (CLE):  As a hitter, he’s declining but tolerable.  As a fielder, he was surprisingly solid at third base.  I don’t know if he’s a long term solution, but what else do the Indians have?  Besides, I’m ranking him as the fourth most productive third baseman in the AL! Andy Marte is penciled in as a backup here and at first base – and in more than a year’s worth of MLB at bats has struggled to hit .220.  Marte looked good at Columbus in AAA, but so far he has not progressed beyond prospect.  (75.6 Runs Created, 10.6 Runs Saved, 86.19 Total Run Production)

Adrian Beltre (SEA):  Couldn’t stay healthy, and his bat suffered mightily.  He’s now at the age where the chances of him returning to his 2006-2008 form are getting slimmer, but his stats might come back playing in Fenway.  He’s never been a GREAT hitter, but he’s always been above average until last year.  He remains a great fielder, though – and he will help Boston’s pitchers.  (55.5 Runs Created, 28.6 Runs Saved = 84.14 Total Run Production)

Brandon Inge (DET):  His body broke down as the season progressed, but he still played in 161 games.  I’m just not so sure he was helping in, say, September.  A surprising number of homers made up for a lack of batting average.  He remains a pretty good fielder.  (71.9 Runs Created, 9.4 Runs Saved, 81.31 Total Run Production)

Melvin Mora (BAL):  Now in Colorado.  Like Beltre, his bat fell in the tank.  Defensively, he was solid – so he can still help.  He’s not getting any younger, though…  Welcome back, Miguel Tejada, who – if he doesn’t age two more years – should be a step up here.  (51.6 Runs Created, 21.70 Runs Saved, 73.32 Total Run Production)

Adam Kennedy (OAK):  Played all over the infield, but had the most innings here.  He’s really NOT a third baseman and having been signed to play second base for Washington, is returning to his old home…  Kevin Kouzmanoff arrives from San Diego to play for the As, and Eric Chavez could always come back from injuries to play for a month at some point in the season.  Kouz is NOT a step up from what Kennedy did overall – and if we ranked him using the numbers he put up in San Diego, would rank in this exact same spot anyway.

Mike Lowell (BOS):  His hip injuries have become problematic, but he’s more productive than most.  Last year’s fielding numbers were below average and his offensive numbers weren’t great but still above the league norm.  Somebody is going to give him 400 at bats and he’s not going to be a problem.  I still predict that he’ll join the Marlins radio booth in a few years…  (69.7 Runs Created, -4.2 Runs Saved = 65.51 Total Run Production)

Gordon Beckham (CWS):  Actually, not a bad tally for a rookie and if he were staying at third, I’d like his chances to move into the top five in this group next year.  Instead, the White Sox are moving Beckham to second base and giving his job to Mark Teahen – which isn’t a great idea (I’d rather have kept Beckham at third and signed Orlando Hudson), and it might take a while for the new infield to gel.  Beckham’s OBP and SLG numbers were solid.  I like him.  (60.5 Runs Created, 4.2 Runs Saved = 64.67 Total Run Production)

Michael Young (TEX):  Newly found power source gave Young perhaps his best offensive season ever.  However, he looked out of position at third after years as a shortstop and his overall production numbers dropped him to eleventh.  Hopefully he can maintain the offense and improve his range in 2010.  (102.8 Runs Created, -39.0 Runs Saved = 63.83 Total Run Production)

Scott Rolen (TOR):  Had a remarkably productive run for Toronto, hitting .320 with a little power.  He was so good, Toronto sent him to Cincinnati…  Like Lowell, you wonder how many years he has left, but if he can hit like this, he’s got plenty.  Glove is no longer a strong suit.  Edwin Encarnacion may not have this job for long unless he finds some stability and to be honest, this is a step down for Toronto.  (63.2 Runs Created, -5.6 Runs Saved = 57.61 Total Run Production).

Joe Crede (MIN):  The best of what Minnesota threw out there (Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Brian Buscher, Nick Punto), Crede isn’t horrible but he isn’t dependably healthy either.  Minnesota will go in a different direction, but it’s hard to say what that direction will be.  As of this writing, Harris is listed at the top of the depth chart but he is NOT a third baseman.  (38.2 Runs Created, 6.8 Runs Saved = 45.01 Total Run Production)

Mark Teahen (KC):  Alex Gordon will get his old job back, but it’s not like Gordon has been as advertised since arriving with the Royals three years ago.  Teahen struggled mightily in the field for some reason – he’s usually pretty dependable.  Now, he’s a White Sox third baseman, and that may not be a good thing.  We’ll see.  (67.4 Runs Created, -23.9 Runs Saved = 43.53 Total Run Production)

Dawson Bound for Cooperstown; Hot Stove Returns to Action

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Andre Dawson, on his ninth try, was elected to Baseball’s Hall of Fame.  Detractors say his on base percentage was too low – but that’s his only flaw.  He hit for power, hit for average, he ran down flies, and had the best arm on a right fielder I have ever seen.  Nobody was tougher; nobody was more universally respected and loved than this guy.  The Cubs fan in me remembers how he begged for a chance to play and earned a contract by winning the MVP in 1987.  [ESPN]

Bert Blyleven just missed (five votes short) and Robbie Alomar was denied a shot at first ballot entry by eight voters.

SI’s Tom Verducci thinks that there is a small and shrinking window for the stars of the last generation – guys like Tim Raines, Jack Morris, and Dale Murphy.  He makes an interesting point…   Jack Morris was a HORSE, Dale Murphy was overrated somewhat, but Tim Raines is undeniably a Hall of Famer.  [SI]

Keith Law, someone I usually find interesting and insightful, really scooped the deep end of the garbage can for this post.  Okay – I agree – Raines was robbed.  I agree, I don’t understand why people vote the way they do – or not vote at all.  But to say that Dawson didn’t deserve to make it and that Jim Rice lowered the standards?  Does he remember how good Jim Rice was for a decade?

Look – I’ve never seen anyone stand up for Jim Rice, but LOWERED the STANDARD?  Usually that’s done by the Veteran’s Committee – not the voters.  Jim Rice was the most feared hitter in baseball, was a solid outfielder in a difficult outfield, and is a credit to the game.  And to compare Andre Dawson to Yuniesky Betancourt is a joke.  Law wrote, “…Andre Dawson, is most notable for the enormous number of outs he made while bulking up his credentials.”  Really?  Most people don’t remember the outs – they remember the grace, class, power, speed, and arm.  They remember how he and Gary Carter gave the Expos credibility; how he mentored Tim Raines – keeping him on the straight and narrow.  He was a LEADER – by example and by action.

Each deserves their spot in the Hall of Fame.

HOT STOVE NEWS!!!

Eric Hinske signed a one-year deal with the Braves.  This is a GREAT signing.  Hinske is getting up there in years, but he hustles, hits for some power, can play four positions – just the kind of guy you want on your team for long summers and the post-season.  And the Braves look like they might be thinking about the post-season in 2010.  Does anyone remember that he was the 2002 AL Rookie of the Year?  [ESPN]

It’s official – Casey Kotchman is a Mariner – and the Red Sox will get utility infielder/outfielder Bill Hall.  This is a pretty good move for both teams, even though I think the Mariners could use a more productive first baseman than Kotchman.  Kotchman has appeared, at times, to be more of a poor man’s Mark Grace, but the more I look at it, Mientkiewicz  is a solid match.  He’s just not enough offense for the position. [MLB]

Oakland returns Jack Cust to the fold for the third time – though this time it was only because the As didn’t offer him a contract and signed him as a free agent a few weeks later.  Cust gets at least $2.65 million for 2010.  The DH/Outfielder remains a solid power threat with a few extra walks, though if he gets 600 plate appearances he might strikeout 200 times.  There are worse problems to have than a guy who hits 30 homers – but Richie Sexton didn’t stay around forever either…  [MLB]

The Royals added more pitching depth, signing Cuban defector Noel Arguelles to a multi-year deal worth $6.9 million.  After taking time off, Arguelles will join the Royals in spring training and figure out what level in the minors he’ll get to show off his stuff.  The kid is big – 6′ – 4″ and 225, athletic, and has a solid reputation in international play.  With Aaron Crow signing after being drafted out of Missouri, the Royals may have two potential aces to join Zach Greinke by 2012.  If they can find an offense, that would be something.  [MLB]

Edgar Gonzalez, older brother of Adrian, and also a member of the Padres is the first of the Gonzalez brothers to leave town…  Edgar is heading west, however, across the International Date Line, to play in Japan.

The Yankees kept Sergio Mitre around – one year, $850K.  Yawn.

A good guy isn’t pitching in 2010 – Scott Eyre decided that it would more fun to spend the summer with his family.  God Bless – see you on ESPN in 2011.

Happy Birthday!

Just a quick list today…  Kitty Bransfield (1875) – outfielder on the great Pirates team at the beginning of the last century, Johnny Mize (1913), Alvin Dark (1922), Dick Schofield (1935), Jim Lefebvre (1942), Tony Conigliaro (1945), Ross Grimsley (1950), Doug Capilla (1952), Allan Anderson (1964), Eric Gagne (1976), Alfonso Soriano (1976), Edwin Encarnacion (1983), and Jon Lester (1984).

Cubs Management Has Gone to the Byrd(s); Other Fireworks…

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Not having enough outfielders who may have already peaked (Soriano, the now gone Bradley, Fukudome, Sam Fuld), the Cubs signed another former Ranger, Marlon Byrd, to a three-year deal worth $15 million.  Byrd, now 32, figures to be the new centerfielder having had his best season ever at Texas replacing the injured Josh Hamilton in center last year.  [FoxSports]

Look – on the surface, Byrd looks pretty darned good.  20 homers, 43 doubles, and a batting average hovering around .280.  However, his walk rate fell, his strikeout rate increased, and he’s had his first season that looked really, really productive.  Nothing else in his record suggests that he’s really a 20 homer guy.  I mean, it looks like he tried to add power with Hamilton out – and having to bat in the cleanup spot.  This, by the way, is to his credit.  Byrd had a solid 2009 season.

Then there is the defensive record.  No AL team had worse defensive range in centerfield.  The average Ranger centerfielder made nearly eight fewer plays for every 800 balls in play – some 45 hits allowed that other pitchers didn’t have to deal with.  I’m sure Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster are going to appreciate that kind of support right up the middle.

Encarnacion Burned in Fireworks Accident

Toronto infielder Edwin Encarnacion is being treated for first and second degree burns on his face after being struck in the jaw with a firework that then exploded near him as well.  He did not require surgery, but traveled from the Dominican Republic to Miami for treatment.  [SI]

New Year Birthday Greetings!

Birthdays on the First include Tim Keefe (1857), Bumphus Jones (1870) – Bumphus threw a no-hitter in his first MLB start, Ethan Allen (1904), Hall of Famer Hank Greenberg (1911), Earl Torgeson (1924), Bob Owchinko and La Marr Hoyt (1955), and Fernando Tatis (1975).

Those born on 1/2 (a palindrome date – 01/02/2010) include Pinky Whitney (1905), Red Kress (1907), Bill Madlock (1951), Jim Essian (1951), Edgar Martinez (1963), David Cone (1963), Greg Swindell (1965), Royce Clayton (1970), Jeff Suppan (1975), and Ryan Garko (1981).

Those born on 1/3 include Buzz Arlett (1899), Gus Suhr (1906), Chico Hernandez (1916), Virgil Stallcup (1922), Adrian Garrett (1943), Gary Lavelle (1949), Bart Johnson (1950), Randy Hunt (1960), Darren Daulton (1962), Luis Rivera (1964), Luis Sojo (1965) – were Luis Rivera and Luis Sojo the same guy(?), and A.J. Burnett (1977).

And, in case I don’t write tomorrow, those celebrating on 1/4 include Tommy Corcoran (1869), George (Twinkletoes) Selkirk (1908), Herman Franks (1914), Charlie Manuel (1944), Tito Fuentes (1944), Jay Tibbs (1962), Darryl Boston – still a prospect even today (1963), and Kevin Wickander (1965).

Trade Analysis: Blue Jay Scott Rolen to Cincy for Edwin Encarnacion and Prospects

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Scott Rolen has played well – he’s one of the reasons Toronto was in contention for much of the first half of the season.  However, he told management that he wanted to get closer to home (Evansville, IN) to address some personal issues and the Jays cooperated. 

Cincinnati Gets:  A veteran third baseman, still decent enough in the field and looking healthier than in recent seasons.  Scott Rolen is a step up over Edwin Encarnacion, who has been inconsistent at best.

Toronto Gets:  Well – a third baseman who should be better than he’s played in 2009 so far…  Encarnacion has been slightly below average in terms of range, but when he’s hitting for power that’s okay.  He’s not unwilling to take a walk, though he goes through fits of strikeouts.  If the change of scenery helps, the Jays might do okay.  It’s the prospects that might make this work long term.

Josh Roenicke is a reliever with talent – good strikeout rates, good command of the strike zone, and this second turn in the majors has been successful.  The son of former Angel and Oriole outfielder Gary Roenicke, Josh could be a potential late inning reliever in a year or two.  He’s certainly going to be an upgrade to the bullpen by 2010.

Zach Stewart is the long term prospect, a third rounder out of Texas Tech in 2008, Stewart has been raced up the minor league ladder because of his command and stuff – he’s a whale of a prospect.  Used in both relief and as a starter with success, he could be the surprise rookie of the year candidate in 2011.

Winner?  I don’t see Rolen as a long term option anymore, though he has played well this year (having passed his 34th birthday).  In fact, he might get traded again next year.  Rolen might have two years left, and he might not.  Encarnacion isn’t awful, and if the two pitchers step up this could be a big win for Toronto.

Baseball and the Fourth – a Perfect Match!

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Today is the 70th Anniversary of Lou Gehrig’s “Luckiest Man” speech.  As such, MLB is honoring Gehrig by trying raise public awareness of the disease that bear’s Gehrig’s name through it’s 4 ALS program today.

The Minnesota Twins lost starter Kevin Slowey to a strained wrist.  After winning ten games he’d been hit pretty hard in his last two starts.  Anthony Swarzak returns from AAA Rochester to take his place in the rotation.

Aroldis Chapman, a Cuban left with a 100 MPH fastball disappeared in the Netherlands.  US teams were interested in Chapman, including the Yankees…  Rumors suspect he defected while his team was participating in a tournament in Amsterdam.  [FoxSports/ESPN]

When the Indians added reliever Winston Abreu in a trade with Tampa Bay, someone had to go – and that someone is veteran Matt Herges.  Herges, who wasn’t awful (2 – 1, 3.55), was designated for assignment. [MLB]

Hurry Back!  Daisuke Matsuzaka heads to “summer” training in Florida in hopes of regaining strength and getting back to the Red Sox.  [ESPN]

Carlos Quentin begins a rehab assignment in Charlotte.  Reds infielder Danny Richar goes to the DL with a torn labrum.  The Braves need a second sacker as Kelly Johnson heads to the DL with a wrist injury.  Ryan Doumit and Reed Johnson start rehab stints, as does Rafael Betancourt and Aramis Ramirez.  Meanwhile, Russ Adams was designated for assignment by the Blue Jays (could he land in Atlanta?  They need an infielder).

Welcome Back!  Yusmeiro Petit returns to Arizona after a DL stint; Howie Kendrick returns to the Angels – hopefully with his bat.  Edwin Encarnacion returned to the Reds, Claudio Vargas is back with the Dodgers after DL stints.  David Dellucci gets the call to help Toronto find any offense possible.

Afterthoughts…  Roger Clemens apparently isn’t one of the 100+ players who failed the 2003 MLB players PED survey.  McNamee says he served up the juice between 1998 and 2001, in case you were keeping score.  [FoxSports]

And, Rafael Palmeiro also denies knowingly taking steroids, reiterating that he must have taken something that was tainted.  Palmeiro’s comments came when he spoke at the College Baseball Hall of Fame inductions.  [ESPN]