Miguel Cabrera’s 2000th Hit – and other fun stuff…

Headlines:

Charlie Blackmon has the first six hit game in Rockies history since Andres Galarraga went 6 – 6 in 1995. [SI]

It started off a little rocky, but Masahiro Tanaka won his first start with the Yankees, going seven innings and fanning eight.  [MLB]

Josh Beckett isn’t coming back as soon as he had hoped.  While making a rehab start, Beckett left his game in the fifth inning after injuring himself while fielding a bunt.  Beckett is trying to return from thoracic outlet syndrome, but was put on the DL prior to the Dodgers going to Australia. [MLB]

Houston leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler was hospitalized with a stomach virus and likely will not play on Saturday either.  [MLB]

Miguel Cabrera got his 2000th career hit – and it was a homer.  My take on it is that Cabrera, if he stays healthy and productive, could finish with around 3800 career hits before it’s over – the closest anyone may come to Pete Rose for the forseeable future…  [FoxSports]

Jason Kipnis signed a six year extension with the Cleveland Indians, worth $52.5 million, and a seventh year option could extend the deal into 2020.  The Indians have been locking down young talent, having recently signed deals with Michael Brantley and catcher Jan Gomes. [MLB]

They said I had to go to rehab…

Those extending spring training with minor league stints include Cody Ross, Michael Bourn, Matt Harrison, Stephen Pryor, Devin Mesoraco, Mat Latos, Boone Logan, Craig Breslow, Ryan Cook, Gordon Beckham, Jeremy Affeldt, Taijuan Walker, Juan Carlos Oviedo, Jonathan Broxton, and Mike Adams.

Welcome Back!

Matt Kemp returned to the Dodgers…

Hurry Back!

White Sox pitcher Nate Jones strained a muscle in his left hip.
Mets outfielder Chris Young has a right quad strain.
A’s SS Jake Elmore has a strained left quad…

That must have been some 4th of July Party…

Daniel Murphy and Brian Duensing return from the paternity list, while Rays LF Sean Rodriguez heads to the paternity list…  Congratulations!!!

Belated Birthday wishes…

Those celebrating with cake, cards, or remembrances on 4/4 included:

(1888) Tris Speaker
(1897) Lefty (Ray) Miner
(1916) Mickey Owen
(1924) Gil Hodges
(1941) Eddie Watt
(1942) Jim Fregosi
(1943) Mike Epstein
(1947) Ray Fosse
(1956) Tom Herr
(1975) Scott Rolen
(1987) Cameron Maybin
(1991) Martin Perez

Baseball 365

Arrivals:

(1876) Big Bill Dinneen – good pitcher, good bowler, decent enough umpire…

(1907) Sugar Cain

(1938) Ron Hansen – back when shortstops could field and usually couldn’t hit – and Ron was one of those guys…

(1951) Rennie Stennett – second sacker of those great 1970s Pirates teams.

(1985) Lastings Millege – one assumes he’s no longer a prospect…  He hasn’t had a major league hit since 2011.

Departures:

(1974) Fred Snodgrass

Fred Snodgrass is most famous for his dropping a fly ball in the 10th inning of a game in the 1912 World Series that contributed to the Red Sox coming back and beating the Giants.  What is forgotten about that play is that immediately after the drop, Snodgrass was forced to play shallow with a runner at second.  When Harry Hooper launched a fly to deep right center, Snodgrass ran like the wind to haul it in – and then rifled a throw back toward second that very nearly doubled off that runner.  The Giants missed a shot at getting Tris Speaker out on a foul pop, which gave Speaker a chance to drive in the tying run.

When Snodgrass returned to his native California after his playing days, we would become a banker and major of Oxnard, CA.

Snodgrass is one of about two dozen players who were interviewed for Ritter’s “The Glory of Their Times” – and his story is a fascinating read.

Transactions and Events:

(1972) The Mets get Rusty Staub from the Expos for Ken Singlton, Tim Foli, and Mike Jorgensen.

(1977) The Yankees acquire Bucky Dent from the White Sox for Oscar Gamble, LaMarr Hoyt, Bob Polinsky, and cash.

2012 Gold Glove Winners – National League

First – a quick recap of how this works…  Many systems look at range factors – meaning the number of plays made by a fielder every nine innings.  I look at the number of plays made for every 800 balls in play.  The reasons for this include the fact that some teams are loaded with high strikeout pitchers, so the fielders get less action on some teams.  I also make modifications for the groundball/flyball tendencies of the teams, and try to take into consideration the number of innings pitched by lefties – as this may affect the number of plays made by the first or third baseman (see Sandoval, Pedro – 3B).

Then, once I know how many plays someone makes, I can then see how many extra (or fewer) plays someone makes, convert those plays into hits (and eventually runs saved).  I can do that for double plays and errors, too.  The player who saves the most runs at his position wins the award.

I make one modification for first baseman – I remove assists made by other infielders so they get more credit for the plays they make on balls fielded by them and not balls fielded by others.

Originally, this method was used to make defensive ratings for a game – so using 800 balls in play also meant that I could calculate how many points in batting average a fielder may add or take away from a hitter.  So, if you see a player with a range of, say, 10.0, that means that the fielder makes ten plays more than the average fielder at his position and effectively reduces the batting average of a hitter by ten points.

I don’t do this for pitchers by position – they play far too few innings, so the award is given to the team.

Catchers are done differently…  They are effectively done at the team level (though we can note who was the primary catcher) and catching teams are scored in seven different ways: Team ERA, Team Winning Percentage, Fielding PCT (not counting Ks), Error Rates, Mistake Rates, Mobililty (assists not tied to stolen bases), and Opposition Base Stealing Rates.  You get one point for being above average, and lose a point for being below average.  It is theoretically possible to get a perfect score of seven, which happens a lot for a certain catcher in St. Louis.

Let’s get on with it…

First Base:

26.1  Ike Davis, NYM  (10.2 Range, 1222.1 innings)
24.5  Gaby Sanchez, MIA+PIT  (15.0 Range, 697.1 innings)
23.3  Adam LaRoche, WAS  (7.8 Range, 1323.1 innings)

I had no idea Ike Davis was this good, but he made a lot of plays, as did Adam LaRoche.  LaRoche has the better reputation.  Last year, Davis was brutal in about 225 innings, which is why you can’t really take any fielder TOO seriously – at least statistically speaking – until you have seen about 2000 innings in the field. This was the second straight time that Sanchez finished second, so last year’s thinking that his 2011 season may have been a fluke isn’t true.  He’s pretty solid.  If only he could find his bat…

Dishonorable Mentions:

-29.8  Allen Craig, STL  (-18.8 Range, 773.2 innings)
-22.8  Anthony Rizzo, CHC  (-16.2 Range, 730.2 innings)
-21.8  Bryan LeHair, CHC  (-22.6 Range, 474.1 innings)

For what it’s worth, the third string first baseman in Chicago, Jeff Baker, also scored poorly.  Some of that is having a REALLY good keystone combination who turn a lot of double plays which would affect their ranking a bit.  I don’t think Rizzo will be this bad next year…  Allen Craig can hit, but he needs a late inning defensive replacement.

Second Base:

25.7  Darwin Barney, CHC  (9.6 Range, 1270.1 innings)
22.2  Dan Uggla, ATL  (8.7 Range, 1348.1 innings)
17.2  Freddy Galvis, PHI  (19.3 Range, 416 innings)

Barney is awesome – you have to watch him and Starlin Castro play together…  That’s an impressive middle infield.  The rest of the team, however, is brutal.  Dan Uggla had an outlier season – he’s usually around league average.   I don’t expect that to happen again.  Freddy Galvis is crazy quick, but he can’t hit enough to hold that position.  Neil Walker of Pittsburgh just missed this list…

Dishonorable Mentions:

-25.3  Rickie Weeks, MIL  (-9.6 Range, 1344.3 innings)
-15.9  Emmanuel Burriss, SF  (-32.4 Range, 269.1 innings)
-15.0  Daniel Murphy, NYM  (-5.5 Range, 1127.2 innings)

Weeks has had leg injuries and they apparently cut into his range…  Hopefully he can bounce back to where he was a couple of years ago.  Burriss didn’t really play a lot, but when he did either (a) the ball never seemed to come his way, or (b) he stands still a lot.  I don’t believe he is really that bad…

Third Base:

25.2  Pablo Sandoval, SF  (15.2 Range, 842 innings)
18.9  Placido Polanco, PHI  (11.3 Range, 664.2 innings)
15.5  Adam Kennedy, LAD  (33.4 Range, 225 innings)
*14.4  Ryan Zimmerman, WAS  (5.5 Range, 1280.1 innings)

There are a couple of teams that had larger amounts of innings thrown by left handers, which skewed the ratings of a couple of players – starting with the top two names on this list.  Throw in the fact that neither player made it to 1000 innings, Ryan Zimmerman would have won my award.  By the way – the ball found Adam Kennedy.  He’s a good fielder, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not really 33 plays per 800 better than average.If had kept that rate for as many inning as, say, Ryan Zimmerman had played you’re talking about 70 or more extra assists, and 25 extra putouts…

Dishonorable Mentions:

-18.9  Hanley Ramirez, MIA+LAD  (-11.0 Range, 860.1 innings)
-15.6  Chris Nelson, COL  (-9.8 Range, 647.1 innings)
-15.1  Greg Dobbs, MIA  (-19.0 Range, 262.1 innings)

The optimists in Florida (and last year I was one) hoped that Ramirez would battle the position to a draw – but that didn’t happen.  And he wasn’t hitting the way he had in the past.  So he had to go.  Somebody had better figure out if he can play center or left.  So Hanley left and the Marlins tried Greg Dobbs, who isn’t very good either (and he’s not as bad as those stats suggest).  Polanco gets his turn in 2013…

Shortstop:

37.4  Brandon Crawford, SF  (19.1 Range, 1101 innings)
31.6  Starlin Castro, CHC  (14.5 Range, 1402.2 innings)
16.4  Andrelton Simmons, ATL  (18.9 Range, 426 innings)

Simmons and Paul Janish played comparable numbers of innings and had comparable range numbers…  Brandon Crawford was a very pleasant surprise for the Giants, proving to be a dependable and able glove man.  Now, some of this was due to the higher numbers of innings pitched by lefties, and some of this is due to his youthful range.  I don’t see him doing this two years in a row, but you never know.  Starlin Castro continues to get better.  It’s sad that such a wonderful combination such as Castro and Barney is stuck on such a horrible team.

Dishonorable Mentions:

-22.6  Jose Reyes, MIA  (-8.7 Range, 1410.2 innings)
-21.5  Ian Desmond, WAS  (-10.9 Range, 1139.1 innings)
-15.1  Willie Bloomquist, ARZ  (-16.8 Range, 528.1 innings)

I have said for some time now that Reyes and Jimmy Rollins (who was fourth on the bad list…) are overrated and have been consistently overrated for years.  The Marlins would have been better served to have put Hanley in left, put Reyes at third, and put Emilio Bonifacio at short.  Bonifacio has better range and is great on the double play.  Reyes has a flashy arm and a bigger contract.  Ramirez is too bulky and if you watch him play you notice how he doesn’t just let loose with his arm but he kind of guides his throws.  They are not shortstops anymore.

Left Field:

The best left fielders play less than 500 innings.  There’s no way you can give a gold glove to Austin Kearns who just happened to play his 142 innings when a right handed hitter pulled a fly ball his way.  Shane Victorino played left for the Dodgers – he was legitimately good there, saving the Dodgers about 11.5 runs.

Looking at the guys who play left field a LOT, you have:

8.7  Alfonso Soriano, CHC  (2.5 Range, 1183 innings)
5.5  Ryan Braun, MIL  (2.4 Range, 1318 innings)
4.4  Melky “the Cheater” Cabrera  (2.4 Range, 898 innings)

By the way, tons of people get innings at this position – more than any position other than pitcher…

Dishonorable Mentions:

-20.1  J.D. Martinez, HOU  (-10.4 Range, 833 innings)
-18.5  Matt Holiday, STL  (-6.3 Range, 1312.2 innings)
-17.8  Carlos Gonzalez, COL  (-6.4 Range, 1127.2 innings)

J.D. can’t be that bad – or else he took his hitting slump out to the field with him.  Holliday continues to get slower.  Gonzalez should be a much better fielder than this, but few guys look good in Colorado…

Center Field:

16.3  Angel Pagan, SF  (6.0 Range, 1279.1 innings)
14.5  Jon Jay, STL  (6.0 Range, 993.1 innings)
9.3  Kirk Nieuwenhuis  (13.6 Range, 372 innings)

The third best regular was Michael Bourn…  Pagan had his best year – not sure if he can repeat this level, but he is really, really good (and stayed healthy).  Jon Jay had a great season as well…  You know who had a remarkably good season in center?  Bryce Harper.  Harper’s range was the equal of both Pagan and Jay – he just played 700 innings.

Dishonorable Mentions:

-22.9  Dexter Fowler, COL  (-9.0 Range, 1026 innings)
-13.5  Matt Kemp, LAD  (-7.5 Range, 911 innings)
-13.3  Drew Stubbs, CIN  (-5.2 Range, 1107.1 innings)

You can see the problems that Colorado had with these last three positions – Fowler, Gonzalez, and Chris Nelson.  I’d love to know how much of this is the park – it’s a huge outfield and has more holes than anywhere else.  Matt Kemp’s body defied him in 2012.  We’ll see if he can come back.  Stubbs was sent to Cleveland, so don’t expect him to erase the ghosts of great Indian center fielders gone by…

Right Field:

26.1  Jason Heyward, ATL  (8.9 Range, 1337.2 innings)
15.9  Justin Upton, ARZ  (5.6 Range, 1280.2 innings)
15.1  Jayson Werth, WAS  (10.7 Range, 608.2 innings)

Heyward had a great season and, like Upton, is just entering his prime.  I wonder which one gets to play in left next year.  I’d move Upton there and tell him it’s time to break out and play like Hank Aaron.  Werth has been a great right fielder for years.  By the way, #6 on the list is that kid Harper again…  If he had played a whole year in center or right, he makes one of the two lists and MIGHT have won the award in center field…

Dishonorable Mentions:

-17.2  Andre Ethier, LAD  (-6.6 Range, 1256.1 innings)
-16.7  Carlos Beltran, STL  (-6.9 Range, 1126.2 innings)
-16.2  Hunter Pence, PHI+SF  (-5.5 Range, 1408.2 innings)

Ethier and Kemp didn’t help the pitching staffs, did they?  Beltran’s knees are now problematic, and Hunter Pence occasionally looks awkward out there – but he tries hard.

Catchers:

Yadier Molina, STL
Carlos Ruiz, PHI
A.J. Ellis, LAD

Molina and the Cardinal catchers were above average in every category, capped by throwing out 35 of 73 base runners.  Ruiz and Ellis were above average in six of the seven categories and dead even in the seventh.  Ruiz gets props for working with the great Phillie rotation, while Ellis probably doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves for the Dodgers success last year.  Ellis and Ruiz had comparable stats against base runners, but Ruiz had the better back up in Erik Kratz.  I saw him – big dude, strong arm, looks like a take charge type.

The worst catching was either Chicago or San Diego, both of whom scored at -5.  Both teams had losing records, staffs that couldn’t keep the ball away from hitters, and tended to be mistake prone.  The worst teams against the run were Pittsburgh and Washington…

Pitchers:

Miami
Milwaukee
Los Angeles

The Marlins pitchers made more plays per 800 balls in play and were the only team with significantly more double plays started than errors committed (21 – 8).  The average team was about 12 – 14.  As such, I give the award (if I have to pick a player) to Mark Buehrle.

Top NL Centerfielders in 2009

Matt Kemp (LAD):  The best centerfielder in baseball for 2009.  Hit close to .300 in Dodger Stadium with power and some patience.  As an outfielder, he’s graceful and fast – which also helps him steal bases.  And, he’s just getting his career started.  (120.9 Runs Created, 15.4 Runs Saved = 136.27 Total Run Production)

Mike Cameron (MIL):  Now with Boston, Cameron had the same type season he’s had for a decade now.   Hits for decent power, draws a few walks, doesn’t run as much as he used to – and still plays a mean centerfield.  Time may be running out, but he’s been very, very good for a long time.  (91.4 Runs Created, 12.7 Runs Saved = 104.12 Total Run Production)

Nyjer Morgan (WAS):  I mentioned him with the left fielders because that’s where he played in Pittsburgh, but he was equally impressive defensively in Washington as a centerfielder.  And, as a hitter, he was electrifying as a National.  One hopes he returns and leads the team with about 110 runs scored.  (76.2 Runs Created + 26.9 Runs Saved = 103.1 Total Run Production)

Michael Bourn (HOU):  Got a lot of hits and a few walks helping to a .355 OBP.  Steals a lot of bases (61) but for a burner isn’t the same defensively as Cameron.  Still – a valuable commodity on a team that could use a few more players of his production.  (98.0 Runs Created, 1.2 Runs Saved = 99.19 Total Run Production)

Nate McLouth (PIT/ATL):  Even hitting 20 homers with a .350+ OBP, it seemed like an offseason for McClouth.  Missed more than a month of games – so if he gets back to 150 games, he’ll move up two or three notches.  (84.4 Runs Created, 0.6 Runs Saved = 85.0 Total Run Production)

Tony Gwynn (SD):  The only centerfielder with 800 or more innings to make 3 plays per nine, JR doesn’t hit like his dad, but he moves like the younger version of his dad.  In San Diego, that helps a lot.  There’s some room to improve here, but without any power, he needs to get his OBP near .400 to be among the great ones.  (57.0 Runs Created, 25.15 Runs Saved = 82.20 Total Run Production)

Kosuke Fukudome (CHC):  Not really a centerfielder, as the Cubs found out.  Gets on base, but really isn’t that good a hitter, and a mild disappointment to the Bleacher Bums.  On the other hand, new centerfielder Marlon Byrd was less productive than Fukudome in 2009.  (75.7 Runs Created, 1.88 Runs Saved = 77.56 Total Run Production)

Shane Victorino (PHI):  Has become an offensive force with midrange power and speed, but looking at the defensive stats, maybe he should go back to right and let Jayson Werth try his hand at center.  Either that, or he just needs to take charge more…  (102.9 Runs Created, -25.6 Runs Saved = 77.31 Total Run Production)

I mentioned Marlon Byrd.  The new Cubs centerfielder would rank here based on 2009 production…

Cody Ross (FLA):  A fan favorite, but isn’t really fast enough to cover center – a heck of a right fielder, though…  Has some power, swings at a lot of stuff – does it all with a smile that every mom would be proud of.  (79.9 Runs Created, -6.5 Runs Saved = 73.39 Total Run Production)

Carlos Beltran (NYM):  Still ranks highly despite missing 81 games because, well, he’s still an incredible talent.  Was off to perhaps his best start ever before the knees gave out – .325 and maybe 20 homers with a killer OBP and 20 steals.  If he’s healthy, he’s the top player at the position.  A big IF, though…  (68.5 Runs Created, 4.5 Runs Saved = 73.01 Total Run Production)

Andrew McCutchen (PIT):  There’s a lot to love – and one wishes that Pittsburgh could have kept him, Jason Bay, and McClouth in the outfield just to see how many runs they could have produced.  He’s got some learning to do in the outfield, but I liked what I saw in 2009.  Power, Speed, Patience – the three cornerstones of a great player.  (78.2 Runs Created, -13.9 Runs Saved = 64.32 Total Run Production)

Colby Rasmus (STL):  The Cardinals think he’s the real deal and he’s certainly off to a great start.  I don’t think he’s as fast as McCutchen and in a few years, the power will even out.  As such, I think McCutchen will be the greater star.  McCutchen had the better batting average, OBP and slugging numbers – but Rasmus looked a little more polished in the field.  (62.5 Runs Created, 1.4 Runs Saved = 63.91 Total Run Production)

Aaron Rowand (SF):  May have lost a step, and his offensive numbers (as expected) have slipped some since arriving in San Francisco from Philadelphia.  No better than a run-of-the-mill outfielder these days.  (66.2 Runs created, -3.5 Runs Saved = 62.67 Total Run Production)

Angel Pagan (NYM):  Beltran’s usual replacement, hit .306 with some power and a little patience.  Isn’t quite in Beltran’s league as a fielder, but the Mets certainly could have done worse.  He could start for a few other teams.  (63.5 Runs Created, -4.7 Runs Saved = 58.82 Total Run Production)

Gerardo Parra (ARI):  Played a few hundred innings in center – not too badly.  He’s the third rookie of this group (Fowler, below, would be fourth) and he might not be too bad either…  (56.0 Runs Created, -2.5 Runs Saved = 53.49 Total Run Production)

Dexter Fowler (COL):  Scrappy hitter, steals a few bases, but otherwise is about a league average offensive performer – not as much range as you would like.  Fowler was nowhere near responsible for the return of Colorado to the playoffs.  (62.0 Runs Created, -9.1 Runs Saved = 52.93 Total Run Production)

Rick Ankiel (STL):  Now plying his trade in Kansas City, the oft-injured Ankiel’s story seems to be heading in the wrong direction, wouldn’t you think?  Batting average fell, power has fallen since being tagged as a steroid user, and his OBP was .287.  Fielded better than other years, but missed a lot of innings…  Lord help the Royals.  (43.7 Runs Created, 7.9 Runs Saved = 51.59 Total Run Production)

Carlos Gomez, the Twins centfielder who takes over for Mike Cameron in Milwaukee, would rank here.

Elijah Dukes (WAS):  Got some time here – not horrible, but not really what the Nationals had in mind.  Could still work out as a corner outfielder or fourth outfielder.  (48.8 Runs Created, -1.4 Runs Saved = 47.47 Total Run Production)

Willy Taveras (CIN):  What happened?  Suddenly lost his batting stroke and finished at .240.  Ouch.  Will find a job as a fifth outfielder, pinch hitter, but probably will never be a regular again.  Unless Kansas City calls.  (36.0 Runs Created, 10.8 Runs Saved = 46.78 Total Run Production)

Chris Dickerson (CIN):  Played the fourth outfielder role, but should be the starter in center for 2010.  Gets on base, runs, covers ground in the outfield.  Not quite a leadoff hitter, but not a problem there or in the two spot.  (38.2 Runs Created, 7.8 Runs Saved = 45.98 Total Run Production)

Willie Harris (WAS):  Can play all three outfield positions, gets on base even with a low batting average and has pop in the bat.  Valuable bench guy for any team…  (48.4 Runs Created, -4.3 Runs Saved = 44.11 Total Run Production)

Chris Young (ARI):  This is what happens when a .240 hitter goes into an extended slump – his whole game suffers.  Hits for power on those occasions he makes contact, but was a zero in every other way.  (39.6 Runs Created, -8.0 Runs Saved = 43.02 Total Run Production)

Ryan Spilborghs (COL):  If he played in center, instead of Fowler, they’d lose nothing defensively and if his bat returns, would get some more offense, too.  I don’t PROMISE that, but I do believe that.  (40.0 Runs Created, 0.0 Runs Saved = 40.01 Total Run Production)

Jordan Schafer (ATL):  Injured after earning a spot in the lineup, spent too long trying to play through a wrist injury and killed his first shot at a regular position…  Now has a fight to get his job back now that McLouth is in town.  Can fly in the outfield – will get a job somewhere.  (16.3 Runs Created, 7.7 Runs Saved = 24.03 Total Run Production)

Cameron Maybin (FLA):  Another burner in the outfield – has some power but needs to make more contact.  Will be the starter in Florida for 2010, but needs to hit in months that start with something other than S.  (21.7 Runs Created, 2.2 Runs Saved = 23.95 Total Run Production)

Jeter Ties Gehrig; Ripken’s Monument Recovered

Cue Tim Kurkjian – it’s time for the Derek Jeter retrospective…  Jeter’s third hit last night (breaking an 0 – 12 streak) tied him with Lou Gehrig atop the all-time list for most hits in a Yankees uniform.  Certainly Jeter is worthy – a heads up player who hustles every night, plays nearly every day, and is nearly universally accepted as the face of MLB.  Congratulations are certainly in order.  [ESPN]

So how many more hits does Jeter have in him?  Averaging 160 hits a year until he’s 40 (not a total stretch; he’d have to stay healthy and near the top of the lineup to do it), he’d have 3500+ hits.  He’d have to change positions or seriously exceed 160 hits per season to make a legitimate run at 4000 hits (not impossible).  Personally, I think Rose’s hit record is likely safe, but if Jeter hits 40 closer to 3750 hits and is still batting around .310 when he gets to 40, he’d at least have a shot.  Is Jeter capable of playing until he’s 44 or 45?

Another player who could make the 3000 hit club is just four hits shy of his ninth straight 200 hit season – Ichiro Suzuki.  Ichiro would pass the record previously held by Wee Willie Keeler, who had 200 hits each year from 1894 to 1901.  Ichiro already has 2001 MLB hits, and 1278 hits while playing in Japan, putting him about 5 years shy of Pete Rose’s career mark if you combine the two leagues.  Now – to be fair, playing in Japan is a far cry from playing in the majors, but they also play shorter seasons.  Rose had another 427 hits as a minor leaguer playing in the Reds chain, so perhaps Ichiro should be gunning for 4683 total professional hits…  [MLB]

One more Tim Kurkjian moment…  Brian Roberts collected his 50th double last night, the third time he has done that, joining Tris Speaker (5), Paul Waner (3), and Stan Musial (3) as the only players to have had 50 or more doubles in three or more seasons.  [MLB]

Dodgers pitcher Randy Wolf thinks he followed in the footsteps of Randy Johnson – injuring his elbow swinging a bat.  Word is that Wolf will miss at least one start with tightness in his elbow, but you never know.  Thankfully, Hiroki Kuroda is back.  [ESPN]

Meanwhile, teammate Clayton Kershaw will miss a start after bruising his shoulder shagging flies during batting practice.  Kershaw ran into an auxiliary scoreboard – with his right (non-throwing) shoulder.  When he can deal with the pain, he’ll pitch again.  [FoxSports]

Phillies pitching woes continue…  Scott Eyre is getting an examination on his elbow, and J.A. Happ will miss a start with an oblique strain.  Jamie Moyer gets the start in Happ’s absence.  [ESPN]

Boston knuckleballer Tim Wakefield will get a cortisone shot to help his ailing lower back, hoping to coax a start out of the 43-year-old pitcher about ten days from now.  [MLB]

Speaking of bumps and bruises…  Cardinal outfielder Matt Holliday stumbled running out a grounder and bruised his knee and is day-to-day.  And B.J. Upton’s ankle is bothering him – he looked slow chasing a Derek Jeter double in the fifth and was pulled by manager Joe Maddon.  [MLB]

Four men were arrested and charged with stealing the aluminum “8” that honors Cal Ripken, Jr. outside of Camden Yards.  While the monument was recovered, it’s not yet known if the monument can be remounted on its base.  [SI]

The Twins activated Francisco Liriano off the DL, but announced that the disappointing starter is now going to be used out of the bullpen for the rest of the year.  [SI]

The Orioles acquired Sean Henn from the Twins for future considerations (cash or a minor leaguer).  Henn is a long-time Yankees prospect who is now with his fourth organization (also San Diego).  The 28-year-old had a few other MLB trips, but hasn’t stuck – so consider Henn “organizational depth”; he’s not a prospect at this stage of his career.  [SI]

A frustrated Jose Reyes still wants to try to play in 2009, and has even offered to play winter ball to be ready for the 2010 season.  Reyes hasn’t played since late May – when the Mets were just one game out of first…  Seems so long ago, doesn’t it?  [FoxSports]

Welcome Back! Those returning from the DL include Dexter Fowler (Rockies), Jeff Karstens (Pirates), Ryan Hanigan (Reds), Brendan Donnelly (Marlins), Donald Veal (Pirates) and Joe Crede (Twins).

Who Would You Rather Have: Kevin Gregg or Brad Lidge? (And other news…)

I grew up a Cubs fan. My grandfather, Sverre Kramer, would sit glued in front of the TV (he lived on Sacramento between Addison and Irving Park) and complain when things went awry.  One of my earliest memories of this includes watching a game between the Pirates and Cubs where Roberto Clemente hit a pair of homers against Fergie Jenkins, the last one in the bottom of the ninth stopping what had been a comeback thanks to a Billy Williams homer, to win the game.  Grandpa yelled out, “Oh for the love of Mike…” – which I can still clearly hear nearly 40 years later.  He would occasionally give me a quarter, with which my brother and I would head to a corner candy store (now gone) and I would buy a pack of baseball cards.  A 1970 or 1971 Marty Pattin card is something, for whatever reason, stands out to me.

Anyway – after last night’s crushing at the hands of Washington, I’ve declared the Cubs officially dead for 2009.  We’re getting to see whatever prospects might be left in September anyway – why not start a week early…  I don’t usually recap games, but after Josh Willingham’s second homer, or perhaps Elijah Duke’s grand slam, I can hear Grandpa Kramer again.  “Oh for the love of Mike!”

Someone else who might be dead for 2009?  Brad Lidge, who blew his ninth save last night.  Ryan Madson as a closer?  Could happen sooner than you think.  Maybe the Cubs can offer them Kevin Gregg in a trade.  Okay – enough rambling. Let’s get to the news of the day.

Billy Wagner conceded on a couple of counts, the Red Sox allowed Wagner to test the free agent market for 2010, and agreed to send two players to be named later to the Mets so that Wagner could hop into a pennant race in Boston.  [ESPN]

One of the players the Mets signed to replace Wagner, J.J. Putz is officially out for the season owing to a rehab setback following his elbow surgery.  Putz is joining Johan Santana – who will have bone chips and spurs removed from his elbow.  At this point, the expectation is that Santana will be ready for Spring Training, but there is some chance that the bone spurs will eventually require Santana to have Tommy John surgery in the future.  Santana had this same procedure a few years back (2003) and recovered to win 20 games and a Cy Young award…  [ESPN/SI]

Jake Peavy’s elbow swelled up after being nailed by a liner in the fifth inning of a rehab start, but he still hopes to pitch for the White Sox on Saturday against the Yankees.  [ESPN]

The San Francisco Giants have barely begun to enjoy him and now Freddy Sanchez heads to the DL with a strained shoulder.  Sanchez hopes to be back by September 2.  [ESPN]

Jacoby Ellsbury stole a base last night, his 54th, breaking the Boston Red Sox franchise record set by Tommy Harper back in 1973.

Tampa outfielder Carl Crawford, who is tied with Ellsbury for the stolen base lead, has been out of the lineup with a sore back.  He hopes to return soon, but for now he’s day-to-day.

Speaking of franchise records, Zach Greinke fanned fifteen Indians to set the Kansas City Royals single game strikeout mark last night.  If you knew that Mark Gubicza held the old record, congratulations…  Greinke got the win to improve to 12 – 8.  When he finishes the season at 14 – 11 with a 2.20 ERA, he should be the Cy Young winner in the AL…  [ESPN]

Chris Davis returns to the Rangers for the stretch run – the first baseman with a ton of power and a hole in his swing wide enough for Andruw Jones to run through needs to bring the bat from last fall to Texas this time…  Davis returns because Andruw Jones can’t actually run – he has a strained hamstring.  [SI]

Tampa outfielder Carl Crawford, who is tied with Ellsbury for the stolen base lead, has been out of the lineup with a sore back.  He hopes to return soon, but for now he’s day-to-day.

Staying in Florida, first baseman Nick Johnson tried to play with a strained hammy, and now heads to the DL.  Since joining the Fish, Johnson had an OBA around .500 and was instrumental in their recent hot streak.  He’ll be missed.  [MLB]

For a spot of good news, Aaron Boone will return to the Astros for September.  This is the same Aaron Boone who had valve replacement surgery on his heart in March.  This is awesome stuff…  [ESPN]

Hurry Back! Mike Adams, San Diego reliever, heads to the DL with a strained shoulder.  Adams had pitched really, really well for the Friars.  After a pinch hit walk and barely being able to walk to first base, Colorado sent centerfielder Dexter Fowler to the DL with a bruised knee.

Welcome Back! Livan Hernandez was signed by Washington and will start tonight against the Cubs.  Jeff Suppan returns to Milwaukee after an extended DL stint…

News and Notes Before Pedro’s Start vs. Cubs Tonight; Is it Over for Percival and Gordon?

The Reds got some good news and bad news…  Good news?  Starter Johnny Cueto’s hip is fine – and now he says it must have been a cramp.  (His pitching is cramping the Reds right now…)  Bad news?  Scott Rolen is going on the DL to deal with concussion symptoms following his getting hit by a Jason Marquis pitch a couple of weekends ago.  [ESPN]

Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez will miss at least two more games resting his sore left shoulder after receiving a cortisone shot to help deal with the pain.  Where is Bill Madlock when they need him???  [FoxSports]

Miguel Cabrera is day to day after getting hit in the hand by a pitch last night.  When Rick Porcello retalliated and hit Kevin Youkilis, there was a brawl (sort of) between the Tigers and Red Sox.

Pedro Martinez gets the start tonight against the Cubs, but the guy who lost his job – Jamie Moyer – isn’t happy about it.  Moyer says he’s going to be a team player and all, but if that’s the case why is he discussing his being “misled by management” with the press?  [FoxSports]

Texas infielder Ian Kinsler heads to AA for a couple of rehab games – should be back soon.  [ESPN]

Todd Wellemeyer, mentioned earlier this week, heads to the DL to rest and heal an elbow with excessive inflammation.  [SI]

Scott Schoeneweis heads to the DL to battle depression, just three months after his wife was found dead in their Arizona home.  His stats show the signs of someone whose heart is somewhere else – completely understandable.  The D-Backs are trying to be as supportive as possible…  [ESPN]

Colorado centerfielder Dexter Fowler crashed into the wall chasing (and catching) a Geovany Soto flyball against Chicago the other night – and now is headed for a precautionary MRI to check out a sore knee.  His offense isn’t changing the world, but Fowler’s range in center has helped keep Rockie pitchers happy…  [SI]

Troy Percival’s shoulder hasn’t allowed him to throw a couple of days in a row – and he’s resigned himself to retirement.  The Rays closer admitted he may not have but one bullpen session left in him at this point.  [ESPN]

Speaking of former Angels relievers, Justin Speier is now a former reliever having been released yesterday.  In his last outing four days ago, Speier gave up three homers in an inning to Texas.  [FoxSports]

Hurry Back!  Twins pitcher Glen Perkins heads to the DL with shoulder discomfort.  Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick heads to AAA with Pedro joining the roster…

Welcome Back!  Braves infielder Omar Infante returns from the DL, as does Reds outfielder Chris Dickerson.

Is it Over?  Arizona released Tom Gordon – the last active player to have played with Royals legend Frank White.  Several weeks ago, I figured out that you could get from Tom Gordon to Rube Waddell in six degrees…  Props to anyone who can figure out how I got there.

2009 Season Forecast: Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies
74 – 88 (3rd NL West) 
Scored 747 Allowed 822

Quick Season Summary:

Colorado was coming off the heels of a remarkable stretch run that got the Rockies into the World Series for the first time.  With a young power core and decent pitching, the Rockies hoped to build on a successful 2007.

It didn’t happen.  Instead, injuries to Troy Tulowitzki, Clint Barmes, Jeff Francis, and Todd Helton meant a slow start.  A 9 – 19 May buried Colorado, and even though they played well in July and August, the good times ended when they gave up on the race in September.

Tell Me About That Offense:

While Coors field still is a haven for hitting – the humidor has helped, but it can’t fix everything – the Rockies actually had several good performers.

Chris Iannetta is a solid hitter with okay power, and his backup, Yorvit Torrealba, is tolerable.

Todd Helton was basically league average, with his back and other injuries cutting into what historically had been solid performances.  Garret Atkins has nice counting numbers, but anywhere else would be league average.  Barmes and Ian Stewart were decent, but Troy Tulowitzki had a tough sophomore season, finishing as a below average hitter.  Fortunately, he hit well after the all-star break.  Until then, he was atrocious.  Backup Omar Quintanilla was even weaker, though.

The outfield featured Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe, who both were very good – Holliday will be missed.  What they needed was a centerfielder who could hit.  Willy Taveras isn’t the answer – he had a .310 OBP and 68 stolen bases can’t possibly make up for not being there more often than not.  I like Ryan Spilborghs – a great player, and too good to be a fourth outfielder.  Scott Podsednik hit like a fifth outfielder.

And the Defense:

Bad.  Only Pittsburgh and Cincinnati were worse.  The average defensive efficiency in the NL was 68.7%.  Colorado only turned 67.6% of the balls in play into outs – basically adding 9 points to every hitter’s batting average.

Iannetta and Torrealba were tolerable behind the plate, scoring as average in things like errors  and mistakes, mobility, and stopping the running game.

Todd Helton remains a fantastic fielder, but Garrett Atkins was atrocious as his backup and is below average at the position he normally plays – third base.  Tulowitzki is a remarkable fielder, his range is exceptional and he’s good at avoiding errors and turning double plays.  Unfortunately, Omar Quintanilla wasn’t very good backing him up – and he was even worse at second base.  In fact, nobody plays second well – whether Barmes (-8.5 range), Jeff Baker (-12.1), or Quintanilla (-22.1).

Matt Holliday is an average fielder in left, Taveras still shows good range in center.  And then there is the worst right fielder in the NL – Brad Hawpe.  Hawepe’s range was graded at – 16.2, adding an unnecessary 47.6 runs to the other team’s scoreboard.  Hawpe made just 1.57 plays per nine innings – the average right fielder is going to be around 2.  So, basically he was allowing a hit every other game that someone else would have gotten.  Based on 2008, he’s a DH waiting to happen.  Podsednik and Spilborghs were decent backups.

Pitching:

When you think that the defense is horrible and the park is killing them, you have to give Colorado pitchers the benefit of the doubt.

Jeff Francis, injured and making just 24 starts, finishing with a 4 – 10 record and a 5.01 ERA, was actually slightly better than league average as a pitcher.  Aaron Cook, who doesn’t strikeout too many guys was solid – 22 runs better than average.  Ubaldo Jimenez, one out shy of 200 innings, was nearly 20 runs better than the average pitcher.  Jorge De La Rosa was league average.  The fifth slot was troublesome – Greg Reynolds, Livan Hernandez, and Mark Redman were a combined 38 runs worse than average.  Most teams would be happy to have four decent slots in the rotation, and Colorado had them.

It’s hard to get a read on the relievers because they pitch in so few innings and half of them are in dire straits.  But, Ryan Speier was actually pretty good (7 runs better than average), Glendon Rusch was decent, Manny Corpas was above average.  Taylor Buchholz, Jason Grilli and closer Brian Fuentes were all great – 12 to 15 runs better than the average NL pitcher.  You just always can’t tell because of where they pitch.

What is Different for 2009?

Injuries stole Jeff Francis and Taylor Buchholz.  Jason Marquis comes from Chicago where he’ll give them three good months and then management will wonder what happened after July 1.  Matt Holliday was traded to Oakland for Greg Smith and Huston Street.  Brian Fuentes was signed away by the Angels – he’ll be missed.  Manny Corpas or Huston Street will get first dibs on saves.  Dexter Fowler or Seth Smith will play center with Willy Taveras having gone to Cincinnati.  Good for Colorado.

Marquis wasn’t that bad; he and Greg Smith will be league average – if you can tell with that defense.  More innings with Barmes and Tulo would help – especially if Barmes can step up some at second base.  A full season of Helton defensively would be great, too.

Actually, having gone through this, I’d be optimistic for improvement.  A healthy Helton would provide 10 runs of offense, which will help with the change from Holliday to Spilborghs in LF.  Fowler may actually hit better than Taveras – so right now – that’s a net.  If Tulo returns to form and Barmes plays up to speed, that could be 20 extra runs even with Holliday leaving.

And, defensively, we’re talking 20 extra runs removed with Tulo, Helton, and Dexter Fowler in center.  Spilborghs could be better than Holliday – maybe it’s 30 runs better.  And, if Smith or Jason Hammel are close to league average, that could be another 30 runs by not having to put last year’s fifth starters out there.

So, that puts the Runs Scored/Runs Allowed ratio at 767/772 – pretty much a .500 season.

Down On the Farm…

Everybody hits well in AAA Colorado Springs.  The two that stood out were 25 year old Jayson Nix, a second baseman with a broad spectrum of offensive skills, and Seth Smith – both of whom will be on the Rockies.  All of the pitchers there have scary ERAs – only Greg Reynolds was young (22) and he wasn’t ready for the big show.

AA Tulsa is also tough on pitchers, but Brandon Hynick has some skills and great command.  Chaz Roe is only 21 and showed control, a few Ks, but serves up a few homers.  I like Casey Weathers, who has a great strikeout pitch, but a little less control.  Dexter Fowler hit .335 here, with walks and a few stolen bases.  Matt Miller hit .344 with a little power and some plate discipline.  He might make it, but is running out of years – he’s 25.

The best player in A+ Modesto was likely Michael Paulk – who has Mark Grace numbers, if not his glove at first base.  He’s 24 and could replace Helton in two or three years.  I like Aneury Rodriguez, a 20-year-old with a good ERA and better K/W numbers.  Another 20-year-old, Jhoulys Chacin made 12 starts, walked only 12, and fanned 62 in 66.1 innings after smoking hitters at Ashville (10 – 1, 1.86, 98/30 K/W in 111.1 innings).  He’ll be on the Rockies as soon as it makes sense to use him – perhaps 2011.  Perhaps sooner.