Chasing Pete Rose

In honor of Ichiro Suzuki getting his 4000th hit in his professional career – and Pete Rose reminding everyone that those hits in Japan shouldn’t count, I thought I’d see who was chasing Rose by age group and determine if anyone had a chance to catch him.

Before I do, though, let’s remind Rose that Ichiro didn’t start playing in the US until his was 27 and when he got here he was already a dominant hitter (.350, 242 hits).  Had he come to the US when he was younger, he likely would have had at least five additional years of 200 hits or so – which means he might already have 3700 hits in the US and a legitimate shot at having more hits than Rose.

But that’s no matter…

Let’s do this by age as the oldest active hitter right now is Jason Giambi. Giambi leads all 42 year olds in hits with 1968 coming into the season and is a threat to make it to 2000, but not much further.  #2 on this list is Brian Giles, who hasn’t played in forever…

(41)  The leaders at 41 are all in the clubhouse – literally.  Pudge Rodriguez had 2844 hits, followed by Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, and Garret Anderson.  The active leader in this group is Andy Pettitte, with 27.

(40)  Like 42, this is not a prolific hitting group, led by the long-retired Shawn Green at 2003.

(39)  The first age with a challenger – Derek Jeter.  Jeter was making progress until this year, where he has but four hits.  He needed another year of around 200.  At 3308, he needs about 950 hits to catch Rose, which means playing well until he is at least 45.  That’s not likely.  He could finish in the top five, though.  Suzuki is on this list – 2722 as of this week.

(38)  Vlad Guerrero leads people at 38 with 2590, but he is done (sadly).  Bengie Molina is the active leader, assuming he still has a job at the end of the year.

(37)  Alex Rodriguez opened the year with 2901, and then sat most of it out.  He would likely have cleared 3000, and even if he played long enough to fulfill his contract, I don’t see him getting the additional 1300 hits he’s going to need to catch Rose.  He’d have to play until he is 47, which is chemically possible.

Paul Konerko and Torii Hunter are the other active leaders, but neither would be expected to make it to 2500, much less 3000. David Ortiz and Lance Berkman might make it to 2000 – Ortiz could make it by the end of the year with a hot streak, and push toward 2500 before it’s over.

(36)  Michael Young leads the group, with Carlos Beltran behind him.  Young looked like a candidate to make a run for 3000 at one point, but now looks like he might run out of gas without making 2500.  Beltran’s knees may betray him before he makes 2500, too.

(35)  The leader in the clubhouse is Juan Pierre, but it’s going to be tough to make it to 3000 (he has about 800 to go) as a fourth outfielder.  Aramis Ramirez will make a run toward about 2400 before it ends.

(34)  Adrian Beltre will finish 2013 with about 2400 hits.  He looks to be on a good roll, but he’s reached the age at which, well, age matters.  I think he may finish with the same number of hits as George Brett.  Jimmy Rollins has closed in on 2200, but he isn’t going to make it to 3000 without finding the foutain of youth.

(33)  Albert Pujols dominates this age group, but the last two years, including an injury-plagued 2013, have slowed his pace.  He’s less than 700 hits from 3000, which still seams easily within reach, but going deep in the 3000s no longer seems probable.  Matt Holiday passed Mark Teixeira this year, but he still needs about 300 to get to 2000 and will make a run at 3000, but not without staying healthy and productive for at least six more years.

(32)  To have a shot at 4000 hits, someone who is 32 should already be well past 2000 hits.  Alex Rios leads this group and will finish the year with more than 1500 hits.  He’ll make it to 2000, but he won’t make 2500.

(31)  The leader at this age group, Carl Crawford, seemed on his way after, say, 2009.  He has lost his momentum, though, and may be hard pressed to turn what will be about 1800 hits to 3000.  Adrian Gonzalez is on this list – pushing 1500, but hard pressed to make much more than 2500.

(30)  Miguel Cabrera dominates this age group – he will finish 2013 around 2000 hits.  I don’t see him averaging 200 hits a year until he’s 40, but he could average 160 hits a year for that long.  That means he needs to play two or three more years beyond 40 to get to 4000 hits.  Obviously this is conjecture, but Cabrera is the only guy with even a SMALL chance of competing with Pete Rose, but you never know.  I’m rooting for him.

The rest of the 30s, including Jose Reyes, Robinson Cano, and David Wright, will push 2500, but not much more.  Reyes may not stay healthy enough to make 2000…

(29)  Leading this group are Nick Markakis, Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun, all between 1300 and 1400 hits.  None of these will make 3000 hits, much less 4000.

(28)  You’d think you might have a bunch of hitters with well over 1200 hits here, but you have one – Ryan Zimmerman.  None of the really good hitters in this age group (Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki) started the year over 1000 – or can stay healthy.

(27)  Billy Butler passed 1000 this year and is rolling past 1100 now.  Adam Jones is making a run at 1000 by the end of the season.  After that, nobody has made any real progress.  Those are the only two making any run at 2000 hits – and will be hard pressed to make 2500.

(26)  The top bat in this group will likely be Andrew McCutchen, who will finish the year north of 800.  Ten years of 170 hits would be 2500, and he’d have some time to make 3000.  Austin Jackson might make 2000, as could Pablo Sandoval, if he becomes a DH.

(25)  Nobody is challenging Justin Upton, who will be short of 800 hits by the end of the season.  I thought he had the best chance to have statistics that looked like Hank Aaron going into 2012, but he hasn’t taken that next step forward.  If he gets going, he could make 3000.  If not, he might not make 2000 and that would be sad.

(24)  The early leader is Elvis Andrus, who will be around 800 at the end of 2013.  That’s where you need to be at this point – pushing that first 1000 at the end of your age 25 season.  His glove will keep him around and he seems to be making marginal progress every year.  He needs to stay at the top of the lineup to get the at bats, but he is best poised for 3000 hits of the younger players.

(23)  Starlin Castro is having an off year in 2013, but will still finish the year around 700 hits.  Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton are on this list – but already a couple of hundred hits off Castro’s pace.  The other young hitters are just getting started.  Castro is the one to watch.  If he can start rattling off hits for the next seven years, he could be well on the way to a big number.

(22)  Heading into this season, there were no players with any active history.  That doesn’t bode bell for someone running far beyond 2000 hits.

(21)  Mike Trout – 209 hits heading into the season, 400 hits at the end of the season.  That’s the kind of start that suggests a big number in the future – we can check in ten years and see what is happening…

(20)  Bryce Harper and Manny Machado – both are capable and just getting started.

Is David Wright Mr. Met? A Slew of Injury News, too…

The Yankees recently acquired pitcher, Michael Pineda, will miss the rest of the 2012 season following surgery to repair a torn labrum in this right shoulder.  He could be back around Spring Training.  Meanwhile, Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik says that Pineda wasn’t damaged goods (Yanks GM Brian Cashman said there were no pre-trade signs of injury) even though Pineda (a) lost eight MPH on his fastball after the all-star break last year and (b) showed up to spring training camp about 20 pounds overweight.  [SI/ESPN]

Boston Red Sox outfielder Carl Crawford is seeking a second opinion on his ailing elbow and heads off to the office of Dr. James Andrews.  Crawford is also still recovering from surgery on his left wrist.  [SI/CNN]

The San Francisco Giants placed Aubrey Huff on the 15-day DL after Huff was treated for a severe anxiety attack.  Huff hasn’t played well recently and also had to play second base for the first time in his major league career – it may or may not be related – and the Giants are giving him time for Huff to respond to the treatments.  [SI/CNN]

Jeremy Bonderman, who has had part of a rib removed, various other shoulder and arm ailments, and STILL is trying to make a comeback is now recovering from elbow-ligament replacement surgery in hopes of making a minor-league camp in 2013.  Hey – you only get one life…  Do the best you can with what you have.  I’ll root for a comeback.  [ESPN]

Transactions:

A quick list of transactions I missed having spent more time sorting baseball cards than blogging…

The Baltimore Orioles signed Bill Hall.

The Cincinnati Reds placed Bill Bray on the 15-Day DL with a strained groin – hopefully his own groin.

The Mets placed Mike Pelfrey on the 15-Day DL with swelling in his right elbow…  So much for making the top ten in wins this year…  (See below)

The Mets also placed Jason Bay on the 15-Day DL with a non-displaced rib fracture.  When you get into your middle 30s, as Bay is, you find out that the ground is much harder now than it used to be.

 

Who is Mr. Met?
David Wright‘s game winning homer to beat the Marlins last night put the New York Mets third baseman on the top of the list for most RBIs by a Met in their 50.1 season history.

Heading into the season, Wright is well off the record for games played, but is in the top 10, having recently passed both Darryl Strawberry and Mookie Wilson for sixth place.

1853 – Ed Kranepool
1322 – Bud Harrelson
1235 – Jerry Grote
1201 – Cleon Jones
1154 – Howard Johnson
1122 – David Wright

Wright is already second in runs scored behind the recently departed Jose Reyes, and should pass Reyes around the all-star break.

735 – Jose Reyes
699 – David Wright (at season start)
662 – Darryl Strawberry
627 – Howard Johnson
614 – Edgardo Alfonzo

With 171 hits this season, Wright would take over the top spot on the all-time Mets hit list.

1418 – Ed Kranepool
1300 – Jose Reyes
1248 – David Wright (at season start)
1188 – Cleon Jones
1136 – Edgardo Alfonso

Wright is a couple of solid seasons away from the club homer mark – a reasonably different list from the others…

252 – Darryl Strawberry
220 – Mike Piazza
191 – Howard Johnson
183 – David Wright (at season start)
154 – Dave Kingman

I probably shouldn’t have been surprised by this – but he’s near the top of the list in stolen bases, too.

370 – Jose Reyes
281 – Mookie Wilson
202 – Howard Johnson
191 – Darryl Strawberry
152 – Lee Mazzilli
151 – David Wright (at season start)

Having looked this over, it’s pretty clear that the best player in Mets history is likely David Wright.

What is certain is that the career list for this team pales in comparison to the same lists for other teams that started since 1962.  The Royals career lists would include George Brett, Frank White, Amos Otis, Willie Wilson, and Hal McRae.  The Astros would boast Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Bob Watson, Jose Cruz, and even guys with partial careers like Cesar Cedeno.  The Padres at least have Tony Gwynn.  The Expos had Dawson and Raines and Carter for longer periods of time.  Colorado has Helton at the top of most lists – with much higher numbers than the Mets history.  The only two teams with shallower team histories are the two most recent teams – Tampa and Florida/Miami.

At least the Mets have some quality pitchers who, while not having complete careers in a Mets uniform, spent enough quality time to make a mark or three.

Wins:

198 – Tom Seaver
157 – Dwight Gooden
140 – Jerry Koosman
99 – Ron Darling
98 – Sid Fernandez

Saves:

276 – John Franco
160 – Armando Benitez
107 – Jesse Orosco
101 – Billy Wagner
86 – Tug McGraw

Strikeouts:

2541 – Tom Seaver
1875 – Dwight Gooden
1799 – Jerry Koosman
1449 – Sid Fernandez
1172 – David Cone

Even in saying that the pitching list is stronger, there really isn’t much depth on their lists, again, because nobody played an entire career in New York other than Ed Kranepool and Bobby Jones.

The active leader in Ks for the Mets is Johan Santana (496).  With a reasonable season, he’s going to pass Tug McGraw for 11th on the list and if he plays two season, should move past Bobby Jones into ninth.  Mike Pelfrey, with 50 wins, could have a great season and pass Steve Trachsel (66) to crack the top ten list in wins.  Santana (40) needs two years, likely, to crack that list and if Pelfrey makes it he’d need to get past Jones (74), too.

At some point, the Mets need to get their act together and build a core of players around Wright that can last longer than, say, four seasons with the Mets.  Give the fans something to remember other than blips of greatness.

 

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating with cake, cards, and remembrances include:

1888 – Ray “Rube” Caldwell
1900 – Lewis “Hack” Wilson (191 RBIs for the Cubs in 1930)
1903 – Dale “Moose” Alexander
1917 – Sal “The Barber” Maglie and Virgil “Fire” Trucks
1927 – Granville “Granny” Hamner
1947 – Amos Otis.  Wow – Otis is 65!!!  (Andy Finch – do you feel old today?)
1960 – Steve Lombardozzi
1961 – Curtis Wilkerson
1969 – Ricky Trlicek, who, like Kent Hrbek before him, needed to buy a vowel.
1973 – Geoff Blum
1977 – Kosuke Fukudome
1978 – Joe Crede

Whatever happened to Joe Crede?

I missed the 4/25 birthday list, so belated greetings to:

1950 – Bill Greif
1959 – Tony Phillips
1966 – Darren Holmes
1975 – Jacque Jones
1984 – Robert Andino

Everybody is Day-to-Day and Why Was Ty Cobb So Mad?

A hand specialist cleared Mets third baseman David Wright to play baseball again, so he may see playing time as early as today.  Wright had broken his pinkie finger Monday night diving back to first on a pickoff play.  [SI]

Cards first baseman Lance Berkman strained his calf legging out a triple on Tuesday and remains sore.  He could miss this weekend’s series against the Cubs.  For now, he’s listed as day-to-day…  [ESPN]

Reds second sacker Brandon Phillips is nursing a sore left hamstring and may not play over the next couple of days.  [MLB]

Those guys are day to day – Michael Morse of the Nationals is not.  On a recent rehab assignment, Morse aggravated his right lat muscle, which affects his ability to throw.  The Nationals are prepared to shut the big outfielder down for at least six weeks.

Padres outfielder Carlos Quentin is available to take live batting practice, making further progress from a March knee surgery.  Quentin hopes to play by early May.  [MLB]

Hurry Back!!!

Lorenzo “Sugar” Cain‘s groin strain requires a DL stint, so the Royals are bringing back Jarrod Dyson from AAA Omaha.  Dyson was locked in during the spring and his first week at AAA.  He’s a BURNER – great speed on the bases and range in centerfield – but a light hitter who hasn’t been able to hit .300 in the minors…  Dyson also has a balky shoulder – he injured it over the winter in Venezuela.  [MLB]

Welcome Back!

Jed Lowrie was activated from the 15-day DL, which meant that Brian Bixler was returned to Oklahoma City.  At least he can watch a good basketball team there.

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating on this Friday the 13th with cards, cake, or remembrances include:

(1866) Herman Long – one of the great players of the first century
(1875) Kid Elberfeld – a rough and tumble second baseman and a great player in his own right.
(1879) Jake Stahl
(1885) Vean Gregg
(1885) Wade “Red” Killefer
(1889) Claude Hendrix
(1966) Wes Chamberlain
(1983) Hunter Pence
(1986) Lorenzo “Sugar” Cain

100 Years Ago in The Sporting News…

Ty Cobb, upset about the location of his room in the Chicago Beach Hotel, packed up his things and returned to Detroit, missing two games.  His room was near the railroad tracks, which was noisy, and when he asked to move to the other side of the hotel, the hotel management didn’t or couldn’t do it.  Hughie Jennings, the manager of the Tigers, let it fly saying that Cobb had been fighting a cold anyway and he and the team would be better off if he were rested and happy.

Guillen Suspended for Thoughtless Remarks Regarding Fidel Castro

Ozzie Guillen headed home to Florida to further apologize to Cuban baseball fans who are angry over his comments about Fidel Castro, and have threatened to boycott and picket the Marlins at their new stadium.  Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal wrote that Guillen deserved a suspension for his “thoughtless remarks”.  The Marlins agreed, suspending the Marlins manager for the next five games.  [FoxSports]

Judith Reese was celebrating her 69th birthday on Sunday when she was struck on the head by a line drive that hooked foul off the bat of Michael Cuddyer.  Reese suffered a concussion and was released later in the afternoon.  [FoxSports]

Chipper Jones was activated Tuesday, missing just four games following minor knee surgery to repair a torn meniscus.  The Braves legend homered in his first game back…  [MLB]

Mets third baseman David Wright fractured his right pinkie finger, requiring a splint.  Wright jammed his finger diving back to the bag on a pickoff throw.  The broken finger cannot be operated on, so it’s just a matter of time before he and doctors decide he can play.

Andy Pettitte‘s first minor league outing was considered a success.  Pettitte went three innings, fanned two, and gave up a run.  The Yankees might need him…  [ESPN]

Washington closer Drew Storen‘s injured elbow is going to get a look-see from Dr. James Andrews.  He felt discomfort following a simulated game on Monday.
Other Transactions:

San Diego placed pitcher Dustin Moseley on the 15-Day DL with a strained shoulder, while first baseman Daric Barton returned to the A’s after a short DL stint.  To make room for Barton, Brandon Allen was designated for assignment – he could be picked up by someone, or he could be heading back to AAA.

Let’s Make a Deal!!!

The Red signed second baseman Brandon Phillips to a six-year deal with $72.5 million.

The Indians signed catcher Carlos Santana to a five-year, $21 million contract.

Ian Kinsler‘s deal was waiting on a required physical and should be signed on Wednesday.  Kinsler’s deal is worth $75 million over five years.

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating with cake, cards, or remembrances include:

I missed a day – here are birthdays for 4/9 first…

(1870) Ollie Pickering
(1888) James “Hippo” Vaughn
(1909) Claude Passeau
(1946) Nate Colbert
(1963) Jose Guzman
(1985) David Robertson

Ollie Pickering, in one of his first games since being called up from the minors, hit a couple of bloop singles to reach base.  As Pickering had played in the Texas League, they became known as Texas Leaguers…  Pickering was a pretty quick outfielder who bounced around a few teams and leagues over a long career at the turn of the last century.

Now for the 4/10 celebrants…

(1868) Tacky Tom Parrott  (See below.)
(1897) Ross Youngs  (See below.)
(1930) Frank Lary (The Yankee Killer)
(1946) Leroy Stanton
(1948) Lee Lacy
(1950) Ken Griffey – the kid on the Big Red Machine…
(1963) Mike Devereaux and Marvin Freeman
(1982) Andre Either – who homered today in a Dodger win…

Ross Youngs is probably as little known as any Hall of Famer, Youngs played on the Giants in the 1920s and was a fantastic hitting outfielder.  He died in 1928, he was barely into his 30s, which was among baseball’s biggest tragedies prior to Lou Gehrig’s death in 1941.

According to “Major League Baseball Profiles” a two-volume set edited by David Nemec that gives amazing details about the lives of hundreds of players who played in the various major leagues from 1871 – 1900, Tom Parrott was one of the original characters of the name.  “Tacky” is an old slang term – we might call him “Weirdo” or “Crazy” or “Whacky” or something like that now.  He had large gyrations prior to pitching, threw one of the original lobbed pitches (high arching slow pitches), was quite the entertainer and airhead, and was also one of the best hitting pitchers who ever played.  His days in the big leagues were rather short – about four years – but he played in the minors for at least a decade after that, mostly in Texas.  When his baseball career was over, he used his skills as a cornet player and served as a professional musician for the rest of his days.

2012 Season Forecast: New York Mets

2011 Record: 77 – 85  (4th, NL East)
Runs Scored: 718  (6th, NL)
Runs Allowed: 742  (13th, NL)

For all the grief given to the stadium regarding how the deep fences kill home run totals, the problem wasn’t with the offense.  Rather, it was the pitching staff…

2011 Season Recap:

Mets ownership’s ties to the Madoff ponzi scheme created the backdrop for a team that started the process of unloading salaries and rebuilding the team.  The Mets weren’t an awful team, really.  They just didn’t have enough arms and the gloves in the field weren’t helping out any.

The Mets had a slow April, but actually had winning months until July and were two games over .500 at the trading deadline.  They were, too, out of it and decided to sell off players, starting with Francisco Rodriguez (who had gotten in hot water over a fight with his potential in-laws) and then moving outfielder Carlos Beltran to San Francisco for prospect Zack WheelerDavid Wright had his first truly off season, and missed two months with a stress fracture in his lower back, which didn’t help either.  Ike Davis sprained an ankle, getting a bone bruise, and missed most of the season.  Anyway – before it was over the pitching left them.  The Mets, who had only allowed ten runs or more in a game four times in the first four months, did so five times in the last two.  Mike Pelfrey looked like he was pitching through an injury,  Dillon Gee ran out of gas,  Jon Niese went on the DL, and both Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy missed three weeks with various injuries.

Starting Pitchers:

In 2011, the Mets featured Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee, Chris Capuano, and Jonathan Niese.  Once Dickey got out of April, he was the most dependable of the starters and the only one who pitched better than a league average arm (16 runs saved).  Pelfrey gave back 16 runs, Niese (who just got an extenstion) cost them 11, Capuano was -8, and Gee was -6.

Heading into 2012, the Mets have to hope Pelfrey returns to form (he has alternated between decent and poor seasons for the last four years – a poor man’s Bret Saberhagen?) and that Gee and Niese can make steps forward.  One advantage, however, may be the return of Johan Santana, who made his first start  (in nearly 600 days) on opening day.  If Santana can pitch 160 – 180 innings at about 80% of his former self, he’d improve the team by about 25 runs himself.  My fear is that Pelfrey could use a different approach and may not improve – and that leaves a big hole in the rotation.

Relief Pitchers:

Gone are the 2011 closer tandem of Francisco Rodriguez and Jason Isringhausen.  For 2012, the Mets imported the Toronto back end – Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch, which should help improve the bullpen.  Another addition, Ramon Ramirez, arrives from San Francisco and will help, too.  The rest are holdovers from last season:  Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, Pedro Beato, and Miguel Batista – and this group has room to improve.  On the whole, this unit should be 15 to 20 runs better than last year.

Catchers:

Josh Thole is young and has room to improve.  The Mets catchers were not a very good lot – poor against the run, with a losing record, poor ERA, and (in part, thanks to Dickey) a bit mistake prone.  Ronny Paulino, a decent enough catcher, is gone now leaving Mike Nickeas as the #2.  Nickeas can’t hit as well, but his defensive skills may be better.

Infield:

Most of the infield remains intact from last year, with Jose Reyes leaving for Miami for $100+ million and a multi-year contract.  In his stead, Ruben Tejada gets the nod.  Tejada isn’t too bad – a slightly above average hitter, a better glove – but even saying that, it’s a 50 run hit from what Reyes delivered last year.

Daniel Murphy hit .320 and can play everywhere.  He’s earned a shot at being the regular second baseman.  Ike Davis will be back – a full season would help make up for some of the loss of Reyes.  And, a full season of David Wright could also pick up some slack.  Backing them up, Justin Turner is a useful player and Ronny Cedeno brings a glove to the middle infield slots.

Even if Davis and Wright come all the way back, it’d be hard to make up all 50 runs lost by losing Reyes.  I see this unit being down at least 25 runs from 2011.

Outfield:

Rightfielder Lucas Duda showed he has a bat and should be more mobile in the outfield than Beltran at this point.  Angel Pagan, who wasn’t horrible but appeared to struggle down the stretch, is gone – his replacement is former Giant Andres Torres, who is about the same level player but is coming off a down season.  In left you have Jason Bay, who might have a bounce back in him – Lord knows the Mets could use it.  Scott Hairston is a competent backup and Mike Baxter will get a shot as a fifth outfielder.

Prospects:

Many of the players at AAA Buffalo wound up getting a lot of time with the Mets, including Tejada, Nick Evans, and Lucas Duda.  Outfielder Fernando Martinez was lost to Houston in a roster shuffle – he looks like he might have been able to help, the Astros will find out for sure this year.  Pitcher Jenrry Mejia quickly made it to the bigs, but spent most of his 2011 AAA season on the DL.  Kirk Nieuwenhuis was noted for his overall approach to the game and will be the first callup for New York if someone gets hurt in the outfield.

AA Binghampton featured a familiar name – Allan Dykstra, who had a line that looked like something off the back of his dad’s baseball card:  19 – 77 – .267, but is more of a free swinger and not much of a threat on the basepaths.  Josh Satin bombarded AA pitching and wound up getting a look at the majors.  Juan Lagares arrived after hitting .338 in A+ ball and continued to hit .370 after arriving.  If he continues to hit over .300 in AA or AAA, the 23-year-old will get a shot to play left field.  The top AA pitcher was Collin McHugh, who went 8 – 2, fanned 100 in 93.1 innings, and allowed just two homers.  Reliever Joshua Stinson moved through AA and got a shot at the big club in 2011 – he will start 2012 in AAA.

A+ Port St. Lucie featured Matt Den Dekker, who hit a well rounded .296 and flashed baserunning prowess and moved up to AA by mid-season.  Wilmer Flores and Pedro Zapata will move up – let’s see if they continue to progress as hitters.  The best arm is 2010 first round pick Matt Harvey, who fanned 92 in 76 innings and finished in AA.  Zack Wheeler, who came over for Beltran, has a live arm and will start 2012 in AA.

2012 Forecast:

Somebody has to finish last in what will certainly be the toughest division in baseball.  With the change in the fences, the team’s offense will LOOK better, but without Reyes and Beltran, the likelihood is that the offense will be a touch worse than last year – maybe 25 – 30 runs worse.  The pitching staff will be better, though, probably 40 runs better (even allowing that they will have a tougher time with the shorter fences at home).

The statistical profile suggests 80 wins – 690 runs scored and about 700 runs allowed.  I’m not sure I buy the system on this one.  You have four really good teams in the division and the Mets will likely be sellers at the trade deadline – even considering that they shed more than $50 million in salary from last year already.  The Mets could certainly win 80 games, but my hunch is that will be closer to 75.

Top NL Third Basemen in 2009

Ryan Zimmerman (WAS):  The Evan Longoria of the National League – hits for a decent average, has solid power, gets on base, and flashes the leather.  As a hitter, I show Zimmerman as actually creating three more runs than Longoria, but Longoria had the better season defensively.  The best player the Nationals have ever had.  (117.9 Runs Created, 15.0 Runs Saved = 132.82 Total Run Production)

Casey Blake (LAD):  Had a decent season with the bat and an unbelievable year with the glove.  Kemp, Loney, and Ethier get all the pub, but Casey Blake was second on the team in total production.  I went back and checked – he hadn’t played that well at third defensively before, so I won’t be surprised if he falls back in 2010, but his offensive numbers were in line with previous seasons.  Another guy the Indians couldn’t use…  (91.1 Runs Created, 25.23 Runs Saved = 116.35 Total Run Production)

Pablo Sandoval (SF):  Kung Fu Panda is a first baseman in waiting, but wow can he hit.  He wasn’t AWFUL at third base, just below average defensively, but you can live with it if he hits .330 with 25 homers.  The new Kirby Puckett.  (122.4 Runs Created, -6.4 Runs Saved = 115.94 Total Run Production)

Mark Reynolds (ARI):  As long as we’re comparing people, Reynolds is an upgrade over Adam Dunn, right?  He strikes out a LOT – but 44 homers and a .351 OBP is really good production.  However just 102 RBI suggests that he’d be even more productive for his teammates if he would just make more contact.  Not a horrible fielder either – slightly better than the Panda.  (104.6 Runs Created, -4.4 Runs Saved = 100.26 Total Run Production)

Andy LaRoche (PIT):  Did you know he had that good a glove?  Just an ordinary hitter – .260 with .400 SLG and a few walks throw in for good – but his defense moved him well up the list.  You can’t sneeze at 34 double plays to just 14 errors.  (69.0 Runs Created, 30.3 Runs Saved = 99.29 Total Run Production)

Jorge Cantu (FLA):  If a third baseman and not a first baseman, Cantu would rank about here.  Maybe a slot or two lower.

Pedro Feliz (PHI):  Had Andy LaRoche’s season with more RBI because of who he bats behind.  Polanco has a better batting average, but I don’t think he’ll match Feliz with the leather.  Feliz’s problem, if he has one, is that he makes too many outs.  You want guys who average at least 5 runs for every 27 outs, and Feliz is consistently around 4.2.  However, there aren’t many guys who save you 20 runs a year with the leather – and he’s been there three of the last four years (only an injury riddled 2008 didn’t add up).  So, you might concede 20 runs of offense for that.  I like Polanco, but Feliz was a big part of the Phillies’ success.  (68.6 Runs Created, 24.5 Runs Saved = 93.15 Total Run Production)

David Wright (NYM):  Not his best effort, but then again I think the park worked against him, and the injuries around him worked against him, and eventually he was dragged down by the entirety of it all.  He still produced runs – he batted .307 and got on base nearly 40% of the time.  However, his home run numbers dashed (the Mets are lowering the left field wall for 2010) and he took his frustration to the field – only 19 double plays against 18 errors.  I like his chances to bounce back some, but he’s never going to be as good as Ryan Zimmerman.  I just hope the Mets appreciate what he does and doesn’t focus on that gap between Wright and the top guys.  (102.9 Runs Created, -13.3 Runs Saved = 89.61 Total Run Production)

Scott Rolen (TOR/CIN):  Add it all up and he ranks about here.  I don’t think he’s a .320 hitter, as he was in Toronto for the first 100 days, but he still has skills.  He is NOT a glove man anymore, and while he’s more dependable than Edwin Encarnacion, he may not be healtier every month.  Still a good player, though.  (84.1 Runs Created, -5.6 Runs Saved = 78.5 Total Run Production)

Juan Uribe (SF):  If rated as a third baseman would fall about here.  He’s a solid player.

Chipper Jones (ATL):  His OBP is still strong, but the end is nearing for this future Hall of Famer.  Hasn’t really measured up with the glove in years, and his offensive numbers – while still pretty good – are heading in the wrong direction.  (87.7 Runs Created, -18.1 Runs Saved = 69.56 Total Run Production)

Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD):  Only three errors last year – one of the best fielding percentages of all time.  Of course, he doesn’t have much range – so that makes him Ron Cey with longer legs.  He’ll help the A’s, though.  (78.0 Runs Created, -8.9 Runs Saved = 69.05 Total Run Production)

Casey McGehee (MIL):  Had a solid season at the plate (.301 AVG, .499 SLG), taking over for Bill Hall (who didn’t) and was tolerable with the glove.  If he plays 150 games, he might move up two or three slots in the rankings for 2010.  (68.3 Runs Created, -4.1 Runs Saved = 64.27 Total Run Production)

Aramis Ramirez (CHC):  I don’t know if he’ll ever play 120 games again – his body just breaks down constantly now.  Still a formidable offensive force, his glove is merely average these days.  Makes the Cubs better when he’s in there, though.  (58.1 Runs Created, -1.0 Runs Saved = 57.02 Total Run Production)

Mark DeRosa (CLE/STL):  Struggled upon arriving in STL, but his defense had been off all season.  Reaching the age at which a comeback isn’t in the Cards – but the Cards will be counting on one.  (77.6 Runs Created, -26.8 Runs Saved – 50.80 Total Run Production)

Emilio Bonifacio (FLA):  Really fast.  Had an awesome first week of the season and then reverted to where I thought he’d be – which is not much of a hitter and slightly out of position at third base.  In Florida, though, he’s the new Alfredo Amezaga.  (44.0 Runs Created, -7.7 Runs Saved = 36.22 Total Run Production)

Ian Stewart (COL):  A Garrett Atkins clone.  Hits for some power, his batting average should scare you, and he can’t field the position.  New Rockie Melvin Mora is a significant step up, even at this point in Mora’s career.  (58.1 Runs Created, -23.4 Runs Saved = 34.68 Total Run Production).

Edwin Encarnacion (CIN/TOR):  I don’t know why Toronto would want him.  Indifferent fielder and not a dependable hitter.  Probably one more year of 100 games in his career, and the rest of the time he’ll be a back up or playing in AAA as an insurance policy for somebody.  Maybe he needs to go to Japan.  (39.8 Runs Created, -7.2 Runs Saved = 32.6 Total Run Production)

Wes Helms (FLA):  Back up third baseman and professional pinch hitter – but ranked nearly as high as Stewart in far less time.  (30.19 Total Run Productiom)

Garrett Atkins (COL):  See Ian Stewart.  (33.4 Runs Created, -7.4 Runs Saved = 25.98 Total Run Production)

Geoff Blum (HOU):  See Ian Stewart – but with less power.  If Houston wants to be serious about fixing the problems on the team, it should start with replacing Blum.  (46.2 Runs Created, -23.6 Runs Saved = 22.62 Total Run Production)

Mighty Casey Awards – Gold Glove Winners in the NL

When ranking defensive players, I have long used a modified system that I once built so that I could assign defensive ratings to players for the board game Superstar Baseball.  The issue at hand was how to rank fielders when (a) fielding stats are affected by things like balls in play, and (b) can you get it to a system that more or less tells you how that player affects the batting average of the hitter.  That’s what a gamer is looking to replicate.

Well – I figured that out.  But what made it valuable to me was when I figured out how to convert plays not made (essentially hits added) into runs using a table of values in Total Baseball.  I don’t know if you remember that encyclopedia, but Pete Palmer had calculated the value of each hit into runs.

Here’s how I do it.

1) Get the number of balls in play for the team.

2) Figure out the number of plays made by a player for every 800 balls in play.  Why 800?  Because for every 1000 at bats, there will likely be about 200 strikeouts or homers – so by using 800, one additional play made by a fielder is essentially removing one point of batting average to a hitter.  Also, let’s face it, a fielder is going to have more chances if his team is loaded with sinker slider guys who get the ball in play, than a big strikeout guy.  So, to get things to a common number of balls in play is a fairer way to evaluate each position.

3) Once I have the number of hits removed (or added) based on that Range/800 factor, compare that number to a run value for hits allowed based on the position.  For outfielders, it’s a combination of singles, doubles, or triples (for center and right fielders).  For corner infielders, it’s singles and doubles.  For middle infielders, it’s all singles.  I have a different system for catchers, and since pitchers don’t play many innings, I tend to look at it from the team perspective – but it works.

4) I make minor modifications for things like double plays, as well as putouts made by outfielders as that shows the groundball/flyball tendency of a staff.  And, for first basemen, I remove infielder assists from his putouts total.

5) Finally, I wind up with two numbers – a “range per 800” value, and a runs saved (or allowed) value.

Here’s the National League Position Gold Gloves and Brick Gloves.  The first number listed is his range per 800 plays above or below average for the position, and the second number is runs saved (or allowed).

Right Field:

7.48  22.42 Jayson Werth (PHI)
6.38  11.67 Randy Winn (SF)

22.27 13.17 Kosuke Fukudome (CHI) ***263 innings

Werth made more plays in RF than Shane Victorino made in CF…  Fukudome played 1/5th the innings that Werth did, but at that pace would have had 395 putouts – which would be solid for a centerfielder…  Does anyone other than me think that Randy Winn is an underrated defensive wizard?

-10.07 -28.14 Brad Hawpe (COL) – third straight year
– 9.66 -22.00 Corey Hart (MIL)

Hawpe hasn’t been close to average since 2006.  In 540 innings, Matt Diaz was brutal in RF with a -14.38 range factor, costing his team 17.56 runs.

Center Field:

12.26  19.26 Tony Gwynn (SD)
4.96  17.77 Matt Kemp (LAD)
6.06  10.80 Willy Taveras (CIN)
14.35  12.62 Nyjer Morgan (WAS)

Morgan was good, but not that good in the few innings he played in Pittsburgh and didn’t have enough innings to qualify, but in WASH he was amazing out there…  However, he was lights out in LF in Pittsburgh, and I might have given him award for the combined effort.

-9.15  -25.58 Shane Victorino (PHI)
-6.45  -13.86 Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

Maybe Victorino deferred to Werth on anything hit to right…  The NET result is slightly below average between the two of them.  McCutcheon is learning the league and will probably get better – but he’s not a natural at this point.

Left Field:

10.25  13.88 Nyjer Morgan (PIT)
4.67   7.53 Seth Smith (COL)

Not many to choose from, really.  Most of the good ones didn’t play many innings here.  One odd note – Fernando Tatis was a ball magnet in the 179 innings he played in left field – which is why I tend to ignore guys until they play 500 or 1000 innings.  Tatis caught 56 flies in just about 20 games in the field, which at that pace works out to 375 putouts in 140 games.  The most anybody had in left field was Ryan Braun, who made 304 plays out there.

-11.39  -32.31 Carlos Lee (HOU)
-12.33  -15.36 Matt Holiday (STL)
-11.09  -13.76 Chris Duncan (STL)

Lee looked bigger and slower when I watched him and the stats bear this out.  And, I pity the poor St. Louis pitchers…

Shortstop:

13.05  23.58 Brendan Ryan (STL)
17.54  23.16 Paul Janish (CIN)
11.97  13.74 Everth Cabrera (SD)

None of these guys played 1000 innings, but they all played 590 or more innings very well.  The best to clear 1000 innings was Chicago’s Ryan Theriot (2.59 range, 8.45 runs saved).

-12.31  -26.07 Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
-13.71  -12.02 Alberto Gonzalez (WAS)
– 2.52  -10.16 Cristian Guzman (WAS)

Didn’t they award the Gold Glove to Rollins?  Did anyone notice that he made hardly any plays out there?  Miguel Tejada had two more putouts and 86 more assists in roughly the same number of innings.  Yunel Escobar played 150+ fewer innings and had 20 more assists.  The only regular to make fewer plays per nine was the immobile Edgar Renteria.  let’s say that there is some bias in the ground ball distribution – if you add Rollins and Utley together, it’s still a negative.  If you add Rollins and Feliz together, it’s still a negative.  Rollins had a lousy year – has been overrated for a few years now, and should stop being considered as a good fielder.

Third Baseman:

10.37  30.30 Andy LaRoche (PIT)
7.56  25.18 Pedro Feliz (PHI)
8.36  25.14 Casey Blake (LAD)

A couple of guys having very good years – I never thought Blake was that good and Feliz was better than ever (cutting off grounders to short?).  Did you know that LaRoche was that good either?  The usual suspects of previous seasons (Zimmerman, Wright) were off.  Zimmerman was still good, but Wright was below average last year.

-13.66  -20.97 Geoff Blum (HOU)
-11.20  -18.78 Ian Stewart (COL)
– 6.07  -18.11 Chipper Jones (ATL)

Not that Colorado is going to miss Garrett Atkins anymore, but Stewart wasn’t that good a fielder.  By the way, if the Marlins are thinking about moving Jorge Cantu back to third, his performance would give me pause (-18.48 / -14.66 runs saved).

Second Baseman:

6.64  18.22 Chase Utley (PHI)
6.17  15.29 Kaz Matsui (HOU)
5.59  13.53 Brandon Phillips (CIN)

Honorable mention to Jeff Baker in just 369 innings for Chicago…

-13.66  -24.76 Skip Schumaker (STL)
– 5.61  -15.30 Dan Uggla (FLA)

The Pirates tried Delwyn Young at second base and it was a bad idea, too.  LaRussa won despite this – and a lot of other holes in the defense.  I watch Dan Uggla a lot, he’s always struck me as a bit stiff but effective.  Makes more good plays than bad, occasionally surprisingly good plays.  This suggests that the stiffness is winning, though.

First Baseman:

16.18  46.78 Albert Pujols (STL)
23.10  39.99 Jorge Cantu (FLA)
11.45  31.05 Adrian Gonzalez (SD)

There is such a gap between the most athletic and least athletic players at this position, so the best and worst fielders are further from the average than anywhere else.  Pujols is ALWAYS at the top of this list.  He plays further off the bag, makes a lot of throws all over the field – a truly amazing first baseman.  Gonzalez is the same thing.  Cantu is the surprise – I watched him and never would have guessed it.  The issue, of course, is that he had three below average fielders at the other spots – so he must have caught a lot of liners and popups to give him a stronger putout total.  While Cantu is reasonably mobile, I didn’t see this coming.

-10.74  -31.01 Prince Fielder (MIL)
– 8.07  -16.69 Derrek Lee (CHI)
-17.34  -23.12 Adam Dunn (WAS)
-27.01  -14.14 Nick Johnson (FLA)

I always thought that Fielder was rather graceful for such a big dude – but that size is now too big.  Derrek Lee is usually on the other list – but he played a very nicked up season – problems with his neck and back – and this affected his range.  Adam Dunn thinks that the only job of a first baseman is to catch throws…

Nick Johnson, however, isn’t usually this bad (he wasn’t very good in Washington, either).  However, the Marlins had essentially the same infield up the middle regardless of the first baseman.  Cantu had nearly as many putouts as innings played (850 innings, 829 putouts, plus 38 assists).  Johnson played 260 innings, made only 192 putouts, but had a few more assists (24).  If you extrapolate his numbers to 850 innings, that’s just 626 putouts – nearly 200 fewer than what Cantu had.  So, you can see why their rankings are so different.