First Trade of 2012… Who had Jason Frasor in that pool?

(Edited to correct three spelling errors.  I should have done a better job editing my stuff last night.  Sorry…)

The Chicago White Sox have been active shedding salary in a remaking of the 2012 roster.

Carlos Quentin Going Home to San Diego

The Chicago White Sox dealt outfielder Carlos Quentin to the San Diego Padres for two pitching prospects, Simon Castro and Pedro Hernandez.

Quentin broke out in 2008 after the Sox lifted him from Arizona for Chris Carter.  Now, the GM that traded Quentin away (Josh Byrnes) gets him back – just in a different city.  Quentin grew up in the San Diego area and attended the University of San Diego, so this is a homecoming of sorts for the power hitting outfielder.  What might make the Padres nervous is that Quentin has never played more than 131 games or made it to 500 at bats – but he is a consistent threat to hit the ball out – even in spacious San Diego.  My take on it, though, is that he will likely hit about .225 with 18 homers – I’ll have to do the math…

White Sox GM Kenny Williams says that Dayan Viciedo will likely get the first shot at being the regular right fielder.  Essentially equal in talent to Quentin, Viciedo is also seven years younger and not arbitration eligible…

Simon Castro is a righty starter who has struggled as he has moved up into AA and AAA ball – he’s been especially hard hit at AAA Portland and Tucson.  The Sox will have to tinker with him to find an out pitch.  Left Pedro Hernandez has superb control and has been more successful at the higher levels.  Both will likely need one more year, though, before they contribute to the Sox rotation or bullpen.

Sox Send Frasor to Jays in First Trade of 2012

Just days after acquiring veteran lefty reliever Darren Oliver, the Blue Jays added Jason Frasor – a former Jay – in a trade with the White Sox.  The White Sox receive minor league pitchers Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb.

Jason Frasor spent eight seasons in Toronto before being sent to Chicago as part of the Colby Rasmus deal last summer and actually has pitched in more games than any other player in Blue Jays history (455).

Myles Jaye was a 17th round pick in 2010 and pitched reasonably well in Bluefield (RK) of the Appalachian League, finishing with a 3 – 3 record with 49 Ks in 54 innings with decent control – not bad for a first year kid out of high school.  Daniel Webb pitched at two levels last year, is 22, and hasn’t shown signs of a career a couple of years removed from his days at the Northwest Florida State (thanks to a writer/visitor for pointing out an error here).  Unless Jaye pans out, this looks like a salary dump if you ask me.

Ryan Braun’s Suspension a Lock?

Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wrote that he had spoken with an MLB person “in the know” and that person suggested that there is little chance that Ryan Braun‘s positive test for a banned substance will be overturned.  According to the article, two things are working against him: (1) that both test samples came back positive, and (2) that the Brewers did not approve anything Braun may have been taking at the time.  Already likely without Prince Fielder, the Brewers are planning for a third of the season without the 2011 MVP in left field.

Braves Trainer Loses Wife in New Year’s Eve Crash

The Atlanta Braves are joining together to help Head Athletic Trainer Jeff Porter deal with the aftermath of a horrific car crash that killed his wife, Kathy, and injured himself, his son, David, and family friend Courtney Ann Williams.  Porter’s car was hit by a state police car that was racing through an intersection en route to participate in a high speed chase nearby.

Jones Remains a Yankee…

Andruw Jones will return to the Yankees as a utility outfielder and DH for $2 million and incentives.  Last year, the veteran outfielder hit .247 with 13 homers in hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.  Is Jones still thought of as a Hall of Fame candidate?

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating with cards, cake, or remembrances include:

Tim Keefe (1857)
Bumpus Jones (1870)
Ethan Allen (1904)
Hank Greenberg (1911)
Earl Torgeson (1924)
La Marr Hoyt (1953)
Fernando Tatis (1975)

Hank and Hoyt you probably heard of…  Bumpus Jones was a pitcher for hire in the 1890s and early 1900s – mostly in the minors.  However, in his first ML game, he threw a no-hitter.  Fernando Tatis, you may recall, hit two grand slams in the same inning – the best inning of hitting ever.

Best and Worst Pitchers in the AL for 2009; And Other Notes…

Earlier this week, I posted my list of the top pitchers in the NL and explained my methods.  Just as a recap, here’s what I am trying to do:

1) I start with the number of runs allowed by each pitcher, and the number of innings that guy pitched.

2) I modify the number of runs allowed to account for any bias based on the pitcher’s home park.

3) I modify the number of runs allowed based on my defensive rating system for teams and players because if you have Seattle’s team defense behind you, you are less likely to allow a run than if you had the Royals defense behind you.  We’ll get into this in more detail when we hand out defensive awards next week.

Then, I compare what an average pitcher would have done with what that pitcher did – and come up with a “runs saved” or “extra runs allowed” ranking.  Nobody saved his team more runs than did Zack Greinke last year.  Zack Greinke had a really low ERA over more than 220 innings despite pitching in a park that helps hitters a little bit and having a rather poor defense behind him.  As such, his season is the best season I have tracked since I started doing this in 2005.

Top Pitchers (by Runs Saved)

65.61 – Zack Greinke (KC)
47.11 – Roy Halliday (TOR)
33.22 – Jon Lester (BOS)
32.14 – Felix Hernandez (SEA)
27.55 – Andrew Bailey (OAK)
26.51 – Cliff Lee (CLE)
25.74 – C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
25.73 – Justin Verlander (DET)
22.21 – Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
21.30 – Mariano Rivera (NYY)
21.13 – Joe Nathan (MIN)
20.80 – Jered Weaver (LAA)
20.57 – Kevin Millwood (TEX)
20.09 – Josh Beckett (BOS)

21.61 – Jarrod Washburn (SEA) – but -13.29 in DET

In fact, it’s not even close – Greinke had as good a season as we’ve seen by a pitcher in a long, long time.  Imagine if he had done this for 40 starts instead of 33, with a team like Seattle.  He MIGHT have had an ERA around 1.70 and a won-loss record of something like 27 – 4.  From this, you can see that Halliday instead of Cliff Lee will be a slight step up for Philadelphia and would have been a more serious contender for the Cy Young Award (in my book) had not Greinke been more dominating.

Another thing of interest – four relievers were good enough to sneak onto the list of pitcher saving his team more than 20 runs, led by Andrew Bailey.  Let’s use that to show the list of the top relievers in the AL last year.

Top Relievers

27.55 – Andrew Bailey (OAK)
22.21 – Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
21.30 – Mariano Rivera (NYY)
21.13 – Joe Nathan (MIN)
18.41 – Matt Guerrier (MIN)
18.09 – Darren O’Day (TEX)
17.04 – Matt Thornton (CHW)
17.04 – Michael Wuertz (OAK)
16.79 – Darren Oliver (LAA)
16.41 – Jose Mijares (MIN)
16.16 – Brandon Lyon (DET)
15.87 – Joakim Soria (KC)

A couple of things – usually the top guys are middle relievers or set up men with great ERAs in 70 innings.  There are a couple here – Thorton, Wuertz, and Oliver for example.  Still – the top four guys were KILLER closers in 2009.

Worst Pitchers

-37.04 – Andy Sonnestine (TB)
-33.26 – Fausto Carmona (CLE)
-24.16 – Chien-Ming Wang (NYY)
-22.81 – Jason Berken (BAL)
-21.45 – Derek Holland (TEX)
-20.71 – Luke Hochevar (KC)
-21.02 – Chris Jakubauskas (SEA)
-20.38 – Jose Contreras (CHW)
-19.59 – Armando Galarraga (DET)
-19.17 – Rich Hill (BAL)
-18.36 – Garrett Olson (SEA)

-23.47 – Scott Kazmir (TB) – but positive 11.34 in LAA

If you had Andy Sonnestine on your fantasy team last year, you didn’t read my Tampa Rays Team Profile that pointed out that many of the Rays pitchers weren’t as good as you thought because the team defense in 2008 was amazingly good.  In 2009, Bartlett was hurt, and Upton struggled, and Aki Iwamura went down, and Carlos Pena looked a little older (and then left to an injury).  Sonnestine may throw strikes, but they sure do get hit a lot.

Hopefully, Fausto Carmona and Chien-Ming Wang can figure things out.  Two years ago, these guys won nearly 40 games combined – and now they are #2 and #3 on the wrong list.

And, if you are scrolling down to the NL List, note that the list contained a bunch of Brewer and Padre pitchers.  In the AL, only Seattle doubled up by having two guys get pounded around – bad pitching was more evenly distributed…

Holiday Cheer in Hot Stove Deals…

A belated Merry Christmas from Mighty Casey Baseball – Casey himself got a new mitt amongst a number of other Bakugan and football related gifts.  Looking forward to getting Casey outside and fielding grounders and catching flies (we do that before batting practice).

Short on time this week, I’ll just fly through the list of deals that completed or appear to be close to done this past week.  After the new year, the focus will be on assembling the 2009 data and comparing it with the trends of the last five seasons to see if we can make heads or tails out of what is happening, eventually turning our attention to the teams and players we’ll be watching (or selecting in fantasy drafts) in 2010.

And, at some point we’ll mix in a few other more free-formed baseball articles – whether of a historical nature or whatever time will allow.  For those of you who visit, I’d love to know what you WANT to read – that way I know I am providing a service and not just getting typing practice…

The Rich Get Richer…

The Yankees acquire Javier Vasquez from the Braves for Melky Cabrera – and a couple of other prospects swap homes, too.  In reality, the rich spend more.  Vasquez pitched for the Yankees in 2004, he’s durable if nothing else, and will be the best fourth starter on any team since the Braves had Kevin Millwood following the big three of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz.  Cabrera is okay – a league average hitter moving from an okay hitting park to one that doesn’t help anybody much.  Vasquez moves back to a park that isn’t going to help him much – he serves up a lot of fly balls and in NYC, that only works if you pitch for the Mets.

Among the prospects, the Braves get Michael Dunn – a project who seems to be turning the corner despite his wildness.  He strikes out a lot of batters and has been more successful since switching from a starter’s role to the bullpen.  However, Dunn does walk a lot of guys, so he’ll be a long reliever until he figures that out – and he may never do that.  The Braves also got Arodys Vizcaino, an 18 year old who could be a long term prospect having had some success at low A Staten Island last year.  The Braves gave up reliever Boone Logan, a former White Sox arm who is used like a lefty one-out guy but doesn’t get people out.  He’ll learn to love the bus rides in AAA for the Yankees.  [FoxSports]

The Braves are giving Troy Glaus a one-year deal to play first base and spell Chipper Jones at third, I guess.  Glaus missed most of 2009, has been up and down with injuries but was productive with Toronto when healthy – not too bad with the Cards in 2008 either.  Here’s what I can tell you…  We’re not sure what he’ll hit.  If he’s healthy, he might get to .260 with 25 homers and 85 RBI, which wouldn’t be horrible.  As a defender, he’s below average (his last three seasons were -3, -11, and -3 in range, costing his team between 3 and 12 runs per season)  – and he’s moving to a new position where he’ll be out of sorts.  [SI]

And, Nick Johnson returns to the Yankees – one year, $5.5 million with an option – to be the DH and get on base, which is what Johnson does as well as anybody.  Let’s hope for NYC, he stays healthy.  [SI]

The Angels signed reliever Fernando Rodney, formerly of Detroit, to a two year deal worth $11 million, which seems like a lot of money for a setup guy who might get a few saves.  [SI]

Washington Adding Talent…

The Nationals are trying to add some legitimate talent to the roster via free agency.  First, the team signed Jason Marquis to a two-year deal.  Marquis is worth 180 innings, but most of the good innings occur before August 1.  (The Nationals need to win games then, too.)  Marquis will get $15 million. [MLB]

And, Washington added reliever Matt Capps to the back end of the bullpen.  Capps would take over the closer role once held by Mike MacDougal.  [ESPN]

In a lesser reported deal, the Nationals signed Eddie Guardado to a minor league deal, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make this roster for 2010.   Guardado will likely pitch in his 950th game this year (18th season if he makes the roster)… [SI]

Seattle Still Dealing…

The Mariners sent Brandon Morrow – a struggling #1 draft pick who has been all over the map in terms of performance – to Toronto for reliever Brandon League.  Morrow will be a starter for Toronto and I’ll be rooting for him – but admittedly nervous.  Morrow tends to walk guys and leaves the ball up – and that’s a problem in Toronto.  League is one of those guys with great numbers – strong strikeout and walk data, a lot of grounders, and will be moving to a team that might be able to help him a bit more.  I’d like it better if Beltre were manning the hot corner, but you never know…  Toronto also gave up minor leaguer Johermyn Chavez, a free swinging outfielder who is just 20 and starting to find himself as a minor league hitter.  [SI]

Other Signings…

Darren Oliver returns to Texas, one year $3.5 million with an option for 2011 – but Oliver, who started as a Ranger a LONG time ago, will likely retire a Ranger at some point…  [SI]

Coco Crisp needed surgery on both shoulders after an injury riddled 2009 in Kansas City, but the A’s signed him anyway – $5.25 million and an option for 2011.  It’s a risky deal – one that really surprised me.  [ESPN]

The Royals, missing outfielders who hit barely .220 with deceptive speed, signed Brian Anderson.  [ESPN]

Oakland is also taking a chance on former closer Justin Duchscherer; one year – guarantees and incentives – pending a physical.  [ESPN]

Veneszuela’s answer to Mike Hamption, Kelvim Escobar, signed a one-year deal with the Mets worth $1.25 million.  He’ll be used as a reliever and has a bonus program tied to his performance there.  [ESPN]

I like this deal, but don’t expect his stats to hold up with the move – Arizona signed reliever Bobby Howry to a one-year deal. [ESPN]

2009 Season Forecast: Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
100 – 62 (1st Place – AL West)
Runs Scored: 765
Runs Allowed: 697

2008 Season Summary:

Pretty simple, actually.  The Angels got off to a solid April, going 18 – 10, kept a winning record through May and June, then ran away with the division with a 19 – 6 July.  With a weak division, strong pitching, a closer having a record season, and just enough hitting, the Angels never had a losing month.

You know what’s really odd about the season?  They weren’t that good – rather, they weren’t as good as their record.  Based on the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed, you would expect them to win 90 games – still good, but not 100 wins good.

Four teams allowed fewer runs – one of them was Oakland – and nine teams scored more.  So, they weren’t blowing teams away.  When they got a lead, though, nobody could get past that bullpen – featuring the 62 saves of Francisco Rodriguez.  Heck, in close games Jose Arredondo won 10 and lost 2.  Five starters won 10 or more – that doesn’t happen very often at all.

What they were was a broadly talented team with few superstars having a bit more pitching than everyone else, and the ability to shut down games after the sixth inning.

How About That Offense:

The outfielders weren’t half bad.  Vlad Guerrero missed a little time, but still delivered punch, with 27 homers and a .303 average.  Torii Hunter, added from Minnesota, was just ordinary good – above average power and speed.  Garrett Anderson remains slightly above average offensively even as he ages.  The power numbers are down, but his batting average remains decent.  As always, he just doesn’t do anything else to get on base.  Backups Juan Rivera and Gary Matthews were okay, but actually below average offensive performers.

The infield was also a hair above ordinary.  Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar were a notch below average while Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman were a hair above average.  Until Mark Teixeira arrived, there were no bangers in the infield.  For all the talk about the two months that Manny Ramirez gave Los Angeles, was it that much better than what Tex did?  Teixeira batted .358, slugged .632, and drove in 43 runs in just 54 games.  Backups Robb Quinlan, Brandon Wood, and Macier Izturis were tolerable backups.

The combined performance of the catching was impressive – 29 homers, 91 RBI.  Of course, only Mike Napoli was really good.  Jeff Mathis hit .194, but with 42 RBI, so the few hits he had were important.

Tell Me About the Defense:

Defensively, the catching was tolerable – Mathis being the better of the two against the run (Napoli only caught 11 of 52 runners), far more mobile, though slightly more mistake prone.

The infield defense was above average – anchored by two good glovemen at first (Kotchman and Teixeira).  Howie Kendrick is slightly above average (1 play per 800 balls in play) and doesn’t hurt you on the double play or in making errors.  Erick Aybar is a gold glove candidate, while Chone Figgins is the best option at third (though Wood has more range).  Figgins was – 5 in terms of range, but doesn’t make mistakes, and so he doesn’t hurt you too much.

The outfield was average all the way around.  The best fielder is Gary Matthews, but he’s just everyone’s backup.  It’s time to admit that Torii Hunter is no longer the centerfielder he was five years ago – he just looks smooth.  Per 800 balls in play, Hunter is just one play better than average.  Matthews, by the way, was +10 – much better than Hunter, though in just 221 innings.  Garrett Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero were better than expected at this point by being league average.

Now Pitching:

The most complete rotation in the majors.  Ervin Santana was 24 runs better than the average pitcher and gave the Angels 219 innings.  Joe Saunders surprised everyone with 198 innings, won 17 games, and was 20 runs better than average.  John Lackey missed ten starts and still was 13 runs better than average.  Jered Weaver hasn’t blossomed into an ace, but he’s still slightly above average, too.  Only Jon Garland, who still went 14 – 8, was below the bar – 15 runs below average, but over 196.2 innings.  Dustin Mosely and Nick Adenhart picked up the missing 13 starts and weren’t ready yet but showed promise.

The bullpen was amazing, led by Rodriguez and the 14 runs he saved the team.  However, Arredondo was 17 runs to the good (42 hits in 61 innings), Scot Shields remained dependable, and Darren Oliver kicked in 72 solid innings.  Only the mop up guy, Justin Speier, was below average in any way.  Only Philadelphia had more bullpen weapons.

Looking Ahead to 2009:

The front four members of the rotation stay, and the lone weak spot (Garland) was allowed to leave.  Nick Adenhart or Dustin Moseley can be as good as Garland – at least not worse.

The bullpen lost Rodriguez and signed Brian Fuentes from Colorado – who, I am sure, is happy to be here.  I don’t buy that Arredondo can repeat his performance, and Joe Saunders might take a step back.  Darren Oliver won’t be 15 runs better than league average again.  I think it’s probably going to cost the Angels about 25 runs.

Defensively, Matthews is going to be a step up (it would be even better if he played center and moved Hunter to left or right).  Getting Vlad to the DH position and letting Juan Rivera play right isn’t going to be an improvement – so the net change will be balanced out.  And, the infield lost Teixeira to the Yankees – so the infield defense may lose 10 to 15 runs – maybe more – by playing Kendry Morales.

So – instead of allowing 697 runs, it might be more like 735.

Offensively, Matthews isn’t as good as Anderson, who is in Atlanta.  Hunter and Vlad may step a bit back.  The infield loses the big bat of Tex, but Morales will be better than Kotchman.  Still, the net loss will be another 30 runs.  So, the net runs scored will be around 735.

That puts Los Angeles at .500 – 81 and 81, and might not win the division.  My take on it is a disappointing second place.

Down on the Farm:

For the last three seasons, Baseball America has been calling Nick Adenhart one of the top two prospects in the chain.  Adenhart has been okay in AA and AAA, finishing 2008 with a 9 – 13 record in 26 starts, with less than promising command.  In fact, it’s gotten worse with each season in the minors.  I know people hit a ton in the PCL, but 75 walks in 145.1 innings should be a concern.  In his favor is his age – he’s just 22.  In fact, it’s hard to see who the prospect is at Salt Lake City.  Dustin Moseley got starts with the Angels but had a 6.94 ERA there.  Shane Loux was 12 – 6, doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, and is 28.  If Adenhart is a prospect, so is Nick Green, who had comparable numbers, is 23, and went 8 – 8.

Brandon Wood gets shots with the parent club and has real power, but the best hitter will be new first baseman Kendry Morales, who hit .341 at SLC with some power, makes great contact – but could be a little more selective at the plate.  Sean Rodriguez, a second baseman with power and discipline hit .306 with a .645 slugging percentage and a .397 OBP.  He won’t do that in the majors, but he can play.

No hitters at AA impressed me, but 23 year old Kevin Jepsen had a 1.42 ERA for Arkansas – a power pitcher who could work on his control a bit.  Steve Marek fanned 57 in just 46.2 innings and may be a reliever of the future.

Rancho Cucamonga (A+) featured several young arms, of which Sean O’Sullivan and Amalio Diaz stood out.  20 year old Alexander Torres will also get a long look in a couple of years.  He had nice strikeout numbers in ten starts.  Catcher HanK Conger is 20, hit .303 for the Quakes, and might be a long term Angel in 2012.