2011 Season Forecast: Boston Red Sox

Last Five Seasons:

2010:  89 – 73 (3rd AL East)
2009:  95 – 67
2008:  95 – 67
2007:  96 – 66 (WS Champs)
2006:  86 – 76

Runs Scored: 818 (2nd, AL to NYY)
Runs Allowed: 744 (11th in the AL, but considering where they play, it was 6th if you adjust for the park)

2010 Recap:

After a lack-luster start in April, the Red Sox started rolling in May and June, at which point everyone started getting dinged up, including Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, and J.D. Drew (which, frankly, was expected).  Bill Hall turned into an everyday player, Darnell McDonald was forced into the lineup, and Mike Lowell’s body finally gave out having to play as often as it did.  Even Tim Wakefield went down with a back injury.  The Red Sox played near .500 the rest of the way, but with both New York and Tampa playing lights out in July and August, the Red Sox weren’t really in the race despite almost making it to 90 wins.

The Red Sox made few mid-season moves of any consequence, other than putting people on the DL.

Starters:

On paper, as good a rotation as can be found.  Jon Lester is an ACE; a lefty in Fenway with a 3.25 ERA and 19 wins who strikes out more than a batter an inning and keeps the ball in the park.  Clay Buchholz earned 28 starts and was even better in terms of runs saved (34 to 26.5), but Lester really had the better stuff and pitched 35 more innings.  John Lackey took a while to get started, but still won 14 decisions and pitched 215 innings.  Daisuke Matsuzaka only made 25 starts, but had a winning record.  Josh Beckett, on the other hand, made 21 awful starts and finished with a 5.78 ERA.  He needs to move off the fastball and find another out pitch.  Tim Wakefield made 19 starts, got swatted around more than usual, and won just four games.  He’s not retired yet, but the league may retire him anyway.

The same five return for 2011, and Wakefield may not have a spot on the roster.  I don’t think Buchholz will match his 2010 rate, but Beckett could be better if healthy.  I don’t expect improvement from the three or five spots (Lackey or Matsuzaka) and worry what would happen if a key starter went down to injury.

Bullpen:

Like Josh Beckett, Jonathon Papelbon was more hittable than in previous years, finishing with a 3.90 ERA.  He walked more batters than usual and just had days where it didn’t work for him.  I think he’ll be fine, but 8th inning stud Daniel Bard could get some save opportunities if needed.  Hideki Okajima fell off a little in 2010, as did Manny Delcarmen.  Guys like Scott Atchison, Ramon Ramirez, Dustin Richardson, and Scott Schoeneweis didn’t really move the needle.  On the other hand, Lester, Lackey, and (down the stretch) Buchholz didn’t need more than two innings of help most nights.

Still, the Red Sox brought in a bunch of guys to help out for 2011, including Bobby Jenks (not really a closer), Matt Albers, Dan Wheeler, and Alfredo Aceves to shore up the pen, which should make it slightly stronger than in 2010.

Catching:

Last year, Victor Martinez proved he could still hit and Jason Varitek proved he could still catch.  On the other hand, Varitek can’t hit much, and Martinez should be a DH.  So, for 2011, Martinez will get to DH in Detroit, and the Red Sox imported Jarrod Saltalamacchia to be the primary starter.  Salty was acquired for prospects in July, 2010 but didn’t play much.  And, he comes to Boston as a question mark.  He has a great work ethic, but hasn’t ever really been a dominant hitter.  And, last year he was sent to AAA because he couldn’t make the throw from behind the plate back to the pitcher.  Let’s hope he’s got this behind him now…

Offensively, this will be a slide – maybe 25 runs – but defensively (unless Saltalamacchia falls off on his game) it could be a minor improvement.

Infield:

The infield was anchored by third baseman Adrian Beltre, who had his best season in Boston, hitting .321 with power, and fielding his position as well as just about anybody.  Shortstop Marco Scutaro didn’t miss many games, but he didn’t make many plays in the field, made quite a few errors, and his batting fell off to league average levels.  The other half missed half the season – Dustin Pedroia only played in 75 games and Kevin Youkilis missed 60.

Youkilis produces a run a game and can still field.  He will be moving off of first base to take over third as Beltre signed a free agent deal with Texas.  And, Adrian Gonzalez was aquired from San Diego (albeit after shoulder surgery) to play first base.  A healthy Gonzalez is a world class hitter and fielder, and if Pedroia plays 140 games, this unit will generate perhaps 15 more runs than they did in 2010.  If Scutaro struggles at the plate this year, it might be time to dig into the minors for glove wizard Jose Iglesias. Jed Lowrie backs everyone up in 2011.

Outfield:

The outfield of Ellsbury, Cameron, and Drew hardly ever played together, so it was a patchwork crew of guys like Jeremy Hermida, Bill Hall, Ryan Kalish, Darnell McDonald, Daniel Nava, and Josh Reddick.

This should change as the Red Sox signed Rays left fielder Carl Crawford for 2011.  Ellsbury will be back, hopefully staying in the lineup and batting in front of the boppers, playing center.  He’s the wild card of this group, not being an especially good defensive centerfielder, and having lost much of the season to build on his offensive tool set.  Drew returns to play as many games as possible in right, with Cameron and McDonald around to pick up games and innings as needed.  If Ellsbury can return to form, and having added Crawford, the offense could improve by 50 runs, easily.

DH:

David Ortiz is still around, having generated 98 runs of offense with a 32 – 102 – .270 campaign.  He’ll still play, but he might get a day off from time to time against a tough lefty with Cameron on the bench.  I don’t see Ortiz repeating 2010, but at least the Sox have options.

Down on the Farm:

AAA Pawtucket’s featured outfielders already got a shot, those being Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddeck – both are mid-level power decent bat types and don’t have jobs in Boston just yet.  Among the pitchers, Michael Bowden keeps getting calls to the Red Sox, but hasn’t been able to stick and probably is looking forward to free agency.

Pitcher Felix Doubront made eight solid starts for AA Portland, earning a trip to Pawtucket.  After another eight good starts, he was in Boston for a few outings and didn’t look overmatched.  I don’t see him making the roster in April, so expect the lefty to start in AAA for 2011.  Anthony Rizzo is a potential power source, having hit 20 homers in Portland after being moved up from A+ Salem.  Just 21, he may start at Pawtucket, but his route to the majors is also blocked.

Salem featured pitcher Stolmy Pimentel, who has decent command but needs a little seasoning.  Infielder Oscar Tejeda hit .307 in Salem, with decent power and some speed.  Ryan Lavarnway showed power and command of the strike zone and should start the year at AA Portland.

Forecasting 2011:

The Red Sox are the consensus pick to win the AL East and possibly the World Series.  It’s hard to argue with the logic.  By my methods, I see the offense improving by perhaps as many as 40 runs, and the pitching holding steady.  The defense will be stronger in the outfield, and the only hole will likely be short and catcher.  With 860 runs scored, and about 740 runs allowed, that puts the Sox around 93 wins.  It’s fewer than many others have predicted, but still enough to edge the Rays for the division crown.

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2010 Top AL Centerfielders

If Josh Hamilton were a centerfielder every day, he’d rank first with 136.2 Total Runs Productivity – well above everyone else on this list.  On the other hand, it would likely be lower because he no longer has the range to play center and, when he does, he gets hurt.

Torii Hunter – LAA (103.9 Runs Created, 5.9 Runs Saved = 109.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Don’t let that Runs Saved number fool you – he was great as a right fielder, but marginally below average in center.  The move to right is the right move, and Hunter remains a formidable offensive weapon.

Austin Jackson – DET (91.7 Runs Created, 4.6 Runs Saved = 96.3 Total Runs Productivity)

A fine rookie season.  Sure – he struck out nearly as often as he got a hit, but he got a lot of those, turning many into doubles and triples.  Has room for improvement, and time to do it.

Alex Rios – CHI (87.6 Runs created, 8.0 Runs Saved = 95.6 Total Runs Productivity)

The change of scenery did him well, and getting to be a regular centerfielder, Rios had a very good season.  As a player, a dead ringer for Adam Jones, only with more experience and a tad more speed.

Vernon Wells – TOR (99.3 Runs Created, -7.4 Runs Saved = 91.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Heading to LA where he won’t be asked to play centerfield very often, which is good because Wells hasn’t been a league average fielder in center since the first George W term.  Rajai Davis gets the job in 2011, and I’m not sure that’s going to be an improvement.

B.J. Upton – TB (90.0 Runs Created, 1.8 Runs Saved = 91.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Has bat speed and foot speed that anyone would die for, and knows the strike zone.  And yet, he’s a disappointment.  He strikes out a LOT.  Now dogged for dogging it, and yet a very valuable player for the Rays.

Adam Jones – BAL (80.5 Runs Created, 7.9 Runs Saved = 88.4 Total Runs Productivity)

A good, but not great player – decent average, good power, some speed, above average glove.  Wish he were more patient, or could take it up a notch.  I was listening to a Baseball Prospectus podcast and Kevin Goldstein noted that, with the end of Ken Griffey’s career, we really haven’t had a big time centerfielder for a while – and that remains true.

Denard Span – MIN (78.9 Runs Created, 3.9 Runs Saved = 82.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Good baserunner, gets on base, but has little to no power.  Above average range in center.  Not a horrible centerfielder, but not making anyone forget Kirby Puckett.

Franklin Gutierrez – SEA (74.4 Runs Created, 1.1 Runs Saved = 75.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Wonder if the struggles of the Mariner season got to Gutierrez?  Fell off offensively and defensively in 2010 to the point he was just a league average player.  He will have better seasons.

Rajai Davis – OAK (74.4 Runs Created,-2.1 Runs Saved = 72.3 Total Runs Productivity)

Speedster, stats hidden by playing in Oakland (not that he’s really Mickey Mantle or something).  Not an awful player, but he’d help more if he could add something else to his skill set.  Your new Blue Jays centerfielder…

Curtis Granderson – NYY (67.3 Runs Created, -5.8 Runs Saved = 61.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Brett Gardner covers more ground, and is a more valuable hitter.  I like Granderson, don’t get me wrong, but they should switch and put Granderson in left.

Trevor Crowe – CLE (49.0 Runs Created, 11.4 Runs Saved = 60.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Has speed, but will probably show little growth as a hitter since he’s already 27 and wasn’t a world beater in the minors, Crowe played more centerfield but was just a few innings from leading the Indians in time spent in left field as well.  At this point, he’s a much better defensive player than Grady Sizemore, but he needs to increase either his on base percentage or slugging percentage to be worth giving 1000 innings in the field.  He’s really a fifth outfielder at best.

Coco Crisp – OAK (51.3 Runs Created, 3.7 Runs Saved = 55.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Would be a remarkably valuable player if he could just stay in the lineup.  In 2010, it was injuries to his left pinkie – twice.  Last full season?  2007.

Julio Borbon – TEX (46.5 Runs Created, 1.9 Runs Saved = 48.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Slap hitter, fast – but not a great basestealer or defensive wizard.  I think he can step forward, though, and has to because when Josh Hamilton is forced into centerfield, he finds the DL.

Melky Cabrera, former Yankee and Brave who signed with the Royals in December, 2010, would rank here (45.3 Total Runs Productivity).

Mitch Maier – KC (47.4 Runs Created, -4.4 Runs Saved = 43.0 Total Runs Productivity)

A fourth outfielder masquerading as a regular because in Kansas City, they need warm bodies.  Hits a little, fields some, tries hard.  He won’t get 2500 career at bats, though.  For 2011, the job will fall to either Melky Cabrera or Lorenzo Cain, a raw talent who arrived in the Zack Greinke trade.  Cabrera is a really good fourth outfielder, while Cain might be a shade better than Cabrera these days.

Darnell McDonald – BOS (46.1 Runs Created, -5.1 Runs Saved = 41.0 Total Runs Productivity)

14 years ago, he was a first round choice of the Orioles and was rushed through the system before he was really ready because he just LOOKED like an athlete.  Spent a decade as a AA/AAA guy before he was finally given a reasoanble opportunity for playing time.  Of course, everyone in Boston’s outfield was injured at the time.  He’s not an awful player, but he’s now 32 and probably wishes things had worked out differently.

Peter Bourjos – LAA (19.0 Runs Created, 12.4 Runs Saved = 31.4 Total Runs Productivity)

The new Devon White.  Some power, tons of speed, swings at everything.  If he can hit anything at all, will become a very valuable commodity.  I think he can hit .250 hitting eighth or ninth in this lineup, which would be just fine.

Mike Cameron – BOS (20.7 Runs Created, 0.4 Runs Saved = 21.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Can still play – retaining a huge chunk of his skills as he approaches 40.  Always liked him, but if it were me, I think I’d rather play Kalish in center.

Ryan Kalish – BOS (21.2 Runs Created, -.2 Runs Saved = 21.0 Total Runs Productivity)

You want to know how deep the Red Sox farm is?  Ryan Kalish is a pretty good player.  Great base runner, sneaky power, decent fielder.  And, he has no place to play on this team.  Still – he’s not far from being a solid fourth outfielder in Boston, and if necessary, wouldn’t be an awful option as a centerfielder for long stretches of time.  Other teams would LOVE to have a Ryan Kalish in their system.  Turns 23 in spring training.

Michael Brantley – CLE (31.4 Runs Created, -15.5 Runs Saved = 15.9 Total Runs Productivity)

In 100 career games now, he’s hit 3 – 33 – .264, with barely tolerable on base percentage skills, and his defensive skills haven’t yet impressed anyone at the major league level.  Too good for AAA, he’s a fifth outfielder hoping to step it up.  Stiil a kid – turns 24 in May – so there is room for growth.

Gregor Blanco – KC (24.9 Runs Created, -11.2 Runs Saved = 13.7 Total Runs Productivity)

A fifth outfielder who got too much playing time.  Can contribute a little with the bat, but hasn’t been a consistently good fielder.

Grady Sizemore – CLE (11.0 Runs Created, -11.2 Runs Saved, = -0.2 Total Runs Productivity)

Hasn’t been the same since the personal photo shoot.  Body has left him, skills haven’t been seen in a couple of years now.  I’m not sure he’ll ever be back.

Volquez Gets PED Suspension; Hoodie is “OKAY!” – MLB

Edinson Volquez, the injured Reds ace, apparently tested positive for PEDs during a spring training test.  He claims that he had taken a fertility drug in the Dominican Republic as he and his wife are trying to start a family.  If that’s the case, don’t you get that approved with the league before you actually take it?

Moreover, why does his suspension start now while Volquez is on the DL, rather than after he would be eligible to play (perhaps, say, late July or August)?  If you get suspended, like Cliff Lee did, for throwing at a player that suspension doesn’t start until you are an active member of the team.  This just encourages people to try something while recovering from a major injury to get better faster (are you reading this, Tiger Woods?).  [SI/MLB]

Others who agree with me?  Joe Lemire of SIJon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.  It may be for different reasons, but we all agree this stinks.

Speaking of Cliff Lee’s Suspension…

It’s not gonna happen.  The MLB, upon appeal, decided that Cliff Lee‘s recovery from injuries to his foot contributed to his lack of control in a spring training game – and not throwing at Chris Snyder‘s head after Lee and Snyder collided at the plate in a previous inning. [ESPN]

From the Training Room…

Darnell McDonald and Josh Reddick have joined the Red Sox outfield as both Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron were placed on the DL.  McDonald is a longtime bush leaguer who has about 140 at bats in a couple of previous MLB trips.  He’s organizational depth.  Reddick has occasionally looked like a prospect, once hitting .343 at A+ Lancaster in the California League, but despite his power and occasional bat control, I think he’s no better than a fifth outfielder anyway…  [ESPN]

Ranger second baseman Ian Kinsler is testing his injured ankle in hopes of starting his rehab assignment this month for Texas.  [MLB]

Mets centerfielder Carlos Beltran is “making progress” in his knee rehab – but he still cannot run.  Neither can pitcher Ryota Igarashi, who strained a hammy trying to field a bunt against the Cubs last night.  It probably doesn’t affect your fantasy team, though.  [MLB]

MLB Approves Hoodie…

At least Joe Maddon can rest more easily, as can your local Walmart or Target.  [SI]

For my Fellow Cub Fans…

The Cubs are looking at Braden Looper.  Forgive me if I don’t get too excited.  On the other hand, I watched them last night and wasn’t too excited about what I saw either.  [FoxSports]

From the Transaction Wire…

The Dodgers returned Jon Link to AAA Albuquerque, and activated reliever Ronald Belisario.
The Angels placed catcher Jeff Mathis on the 15 day DL and recalled Robb Quinlan.
Houston placed infielder Chris Johnson on the DL with a strained right intercostal muscle, and recalled Lance Berkman.
Cleveland recalled hitter Russell Branyan, costing outfielder Michael Brantley his job.  Brantley heads to AAA Columbus.
Baltimore dispatched struggling pitcher Brad Bergesen to AAA Norfolk and called up Alberto Castillo.

I watched Bergesen get lit up by Seattle.  Castillo is a minor league and independent league veteran, throws lefty, and has had a couple of previous shots with Baltimore and never been too bad.  He’s a platoon guy – but very happy to have made the roster.  Castillo jumped from Cuba in 1994 and is just shy of 35 years old.  Maybe he can stay a little longer this time.

The Red Sox traded Andrew Dobies to the White Sox.  Dobies was a third round pick out of Virginia six years ago who never got out of AA.  He recently converted to a relief role and has been a bit more successful, but we’ll see if he can make it one more step or two forward.

Happy Birthday!

1887 – Joe McCarthy – Hall of Fame manager
1919 – Stan Rojek – “Happy Rabbit”
1937 – Gary Peters
1941 – Dick Green
1947 – Al Bumbry
1962 – Les Lancaster
1963 – Ken Caminiti
1973 – Kevin Brown
1977 – Kip Wells
1981 – Ronny Paulino – Wonder if the Marlins will let him catch tonight?