Happy Anniversary, Hammerin’ Hank Aaron – and other stuff…

The Rockies are going to play it safe with Troy Tulowitzki.  Tulo homered among three hits, made two great plays at short – and then left the game to protect a frail groin and deal with tightness in his leg.  [MLB]

It was a rough day in Tampa.  Ray starter Matt Moore left the game with an injury to his left elbow.  Later, Rays reliever Heath Bell drilled Royals infielder Omar Infante in the jaw with a pitch.  Infante left the game with a possible concussion and will have his jaw tested for a possible fracture.  [MLB/SI]

Tigers pitcher Evan Reed is wanted for questioning and likely will face a sexual assault complaint when the Tigers return to Detroit.  [SI]

Dodgers catcher A.J. Ellis is scheduled to have arthroscopic surgery on his left knee for a meniscus tear.  He injured himself running the bases on Saturday.  It’s the second such surgery on the same knee in two years.  [SI]

Yankees closer David Robertson likely heads to the DL after straining a groin, hopefully his own, in an outing against Toronto.  An MRI revealed a grade one strain.  [ESPN]

Hurry Back!

KC placed reliever Tim Collins on the DL with a left elbow strain, and pitcher Francisley Bueno on the DL with a sprained middle finger.  Joining the roster are lefty Donnie Joseph and Michael Mariot.

Minnesota placed infielder Jason Bartlett on the DL with a sprained ankle.  The Twins recalled C Chris Herrmann to take Bartlett’s spot on the roster.

Texas placed starter Joe Saunders on the DL with a bruised left ankle.  Texas brings back RHP Daniel McCutchen.

Welcome Back!

Rockies pitcher Boone Logan, Oakland pitcher Ryan Cook, and Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco returned from the DL.

That Didn’t Last Long…

Boston sent Brock Holt back to the minors after having signed Ryan Roberts to a contract.

Transactions:

The Yankees worked out a trade that sends Eduardo Nunez to Minnesota for pitcher Miguel Sulbaran.

Cleveland traded pitcher Preston Guilmet to Baltimore for infielder Torsten Boss.

Baseball 365:

Arrivals:

(1859) Lady Baldwin

Had a short career in the 1880s, but for a couple of years was a very good lefty pitcher.  His nickname, Lady, came about because of his overly gentlemanly ways and his frequently demonstrating nervousness and fear in public situations.

(1915) Kirby Higbe

(1943) John Hiller

(1946) Jim “Catfish” Hunter

Five World Series teams, and the ace of the great As teams of the early 1970s.  Didn’t mess around, threw strikes, and got the job done.

(1954) Gary Carter

Like Hunter, left us way too soon.  Great catcher, always looked like he was having fun.

(1979) Jeremy Guthrie

(1983) Chris Ianetta

(1986) King Felix Hernandez, Carlos Santana

(1987) Yonder Alonso

Departures:

(1978) Former Commissioner Ford Frick

(2005) Eddie Miksis

Transactions:

(1963) The Tigers sign Denny McClain, who had been placed on waivers by the White Sox.

Events:

(1922) According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Cardinals debuted their new uniform, which includes two birds on a bat with the word Cardinals across the front in a pre-season exhibition game against the Browns.

(1969) Opening Day for four expansion teams – all winners.  Kansas City, Montreal, Seattle, and San Diego all open their first seasons happily…

(1974) Hank Aaron hits his 715th homer, passing Babe Ruth, off of Al Dowling in Atlanta. [MLB]

(1994) Kent Mercker fires a no-hitter as Atlanta tops the Dodgers.  It was Mercker’s first complete game.

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Derek Jeter Says “Ouch!” – and other news…

Headlines:

Frank Freeman hit a pair of homers to give the Braves a win over Milwaukee. [ESPN]

Brad Miller did the same to help Seattle improve to 2 – 0 with a win over Los Angeles. [ESPN]

Derek Jeter‘s twentieth and final season started off like this.  [FoxSports]

 

Hurry Back!

The Dodgers pitching injury woes continued…  Reliever Brian Wilson has damaged nerve endings in his right elbow and will head to the DL.  And, it will be a couple of weeks before Los Angeles will know when Clayton Kershaw will return.  (How fast can Josh Beckett get back?)  [MLB]

Wilson Ramos‘s hand injury is worse than originally suspected and he will head to the DL and likely have surgery on his left hamate bone in the hand.  [MLB]

 

The Transaction Wire:

The Yankees placed SS Brendan Ryan on the DL with an upper back injury, retroactively applied as of March 22.  Instead of giving that job to Edwin Nunez, Nunez was designated for assignment, and the Yankees called up infielder Yangervis Solarte instead.  Solarte hit .429 in the spring and in the PCL has hit about .280 with some power for Texas.  I’m not sure he’d hit enough, but for now the 26 year old Venezuelan infielder is getting a taste of the big leagues…

Atlanta sent pitcher Gavin Floyd on a rehab assignment.

Texas dispatched Michael Kirkman to Round Rock, designated backup catcher Chris Gimenez for assignment, and brought up pitcher Daniel McCutchen.  This won’t mess with too many fantasy rosters…

 

Baseball 365:

Arrivals:

(1856)  Tommy Bond – This is the baseball player, and not the kid who played Butch in the original Little Rascals…  Bond was the first Irish-born major leaguer, a pitcher who won 234 games in the National Association and the early days of the National League.

(1869)  Hughey Jennings – Hall of Fame shortstop and manager, known as Ee-Yah for his shrieks of excitement.

(1907)  Another Hall of Fame shortstop, Ol’ Aches and Pains – Luke Appling.  In his 70s, Appling hit a home run at an old timer’s game in RFK at the age of 75.

(1927) Billy Pierce

(1937) Dick “The Monster” Radatz

(1945) Hall of Fame pitcher, Don Sutton.

(1945) Reggie Smith – a great outfielder of the 60s, 70s, and 80s.

(1964) Pete Incaviglia – who, while at Oklahoma State, hit the longest homer ever seen at Hoglund-Maupin Stadium, the home of the Kansas Jayhawks baseball team.

(1970) Jon Lieber

 

Departures:

(1972)  Gil Hodges, about to manage the Mets for the season…  He had just finished a round of golf in West Palm Beach and collapsed just before his 48th birthday.

(2010)  Mike Cuellar, a cagey left-hander for the Orioles and many other teams – one of my favorite pitchers back in the day.

 

Transactions and Other Notes:

(1931) Jackie Miller, a fine young female pitcher, fans Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig in an exhibition game in Chattanooga, TN.

(1963) The Astros trade Manny Mota to Pittsburgh for prospects.  Mota lasts forever.

(1976) The As start the sell-off…  Reggie Jackson, Ken Holtzman and Bill Van Bommell are traded to Baltimore for Don Baylor, Mike Torrez, and Paul Mitchell.

Quick Hit Monday: Heads, Fingers, Hips, and Woes

Heads:

Chris Jakubauskas heads to the DL to clear his noggin after taking a liner off the back of his head on Saturday.  Lance Berkman‘s line drive struck Jakubauskas behind his right ear and bounced back over the catcher’s head.  Amazingly, he never lost consciousness and walked to the cart that drove him away.  Then, he flew home on the team plane Sunday night.  [SI]

Fingers:

Oakland first baseman Daric Barton broke a plate in his right middle finger making a catch of a foul ball on Sunday and is considered day to day.

Hips:

Chipper Jones is battling a hip injury and is day-to-day.  At 38, he’s getting old in terms of being a third baseman as it is – we just need to enjoy him and his career for as long as it lasts.  [FoxSports – South]

Shoulders:

Giants infielder Freddy Sanchez is finally turning the corner and could be ready to rejoin San Francisco in three weeks.  Sanchez is continuing rehab on his left shoulder.  [ESPN]

Woes:

Look for Jeff Suppan to move to the bullpen in Milwaukee after more than two years of ugly starts.  [MLB]

You know it’s been a tough couple of years in New York when you see a headline like this one.  [MLB]

More on Pitchers…

Cliff Lee pitched six shutout innings for AAA Tacoma and will make his 2010 debut for Seattle on Friday.  [ESPN]

Tim Wakefield heads to the bullpen to make room for Daisuke Matsuzaka in Boston.  Wakefield can still get people out.  [ESPN]

And why do YOU hate him?

Joe Posnanski ponders why so many people hate Alex Rodriguez.  Ummm.  He’s a cheat.  He’s a phony.  He does stupid things to annoy people – like yelling at fielders while he runs the bases, or running over the mound while a pitcher is heading back to the rubber to pitch.  [SI]

Transactions Details:

  • Rockies outfielder Brad Hawpe heads to the DL with a strained left quad.  Returning to Colorado?  Infielder Eric Young, Jr.
  • Astros pitcher Sammy Gervacio returns from the DL, and Wilton Lopez heads back to AAA Round Rock.
  • The Pirates recalled two pitchers, Brian Bass and Brian Burres.  One replaces Jakubauskas, while the other replaces the ineffective Daniel McCutchen.
  • Dodgers starter Vicente Padilla heads to the DL to recover from forearm soreness.  His replacement?  The oft-travelled pitcher, Jon Link.
  • Angels catcher Bobby Wilson was run over by Mark Teixeira at a home plate collision and will be out two weeks to deal with a strained ankle and post-concussion symptoms.
  • Ted Lilly returned to the Cubs rotation over the weekend.  When Carlos Zambrano moved from the rotation to the bullpen, the Cubs optioned Jeff Samardzija (my first Topps baseball card of the season) back to AAA Iowa.  I have little faith that Samardzija will ever pan out, but will hope that I am wrong.  The Bears need a receiver – maybe it’s time to reconsider his career choice.
  • The Indians sent outfielder Jonathan Van Every to Boston – who becomes the fifth outfielder on the Red Sox – and the Sox sent Josh Reddick back to AAA Pawtucket.
  • The Dodgers sent Manny Ramirez to the DL with his strained calf.
  • The Tigers sent outfielder Carlos Guillen to the DL with a strained hamstring, and recalled outfielder Brennan Boesch.
  • The Twins sent Nick Punto to the DL to deal with a left hip flexor strain.

Happy Birthday!

1888 – Ray “Rube” Caldwell (one of the first Rube imitators)
1900 – Hack Wilson, Hall of Fame Cubs and Giants outfielder
1917 – Sal “The Barber” Maglie
1917 – Virgil Trucks
1927 – Granny Hamner
1947 – Amos Otis
1955 – Mike Scott
1960 – Steve Lombardozzi
1973 – Geoff Blum
1977 – Kosuke Fukudome
1978 – Joe Crede

Jimenez Tosses First Rocky No Hitter; Mets top Cards in 20 innings (and lots of old news)

Until last night, no Colorado Rockies pitcher had brought a no-hitter into the eighth inning – but Ubaldo Jimenez not only did that, he finished the job – cruising the last four innings and beating the Atlanta Braves.  Jimenez battled his control for five innings before his pitching coach, Bob Apodaca (a former Met, a team without a no-hitter in nearly 50 seasons) suggested that he pitch from the stretch to keep the ball in the strike zone.   After averaging more than 18 pitches an inning through five, Jimenez needed only 45 to finish the last four innings.  [MLB]

Funny story about that.  My friend, Steve Dubin, has Jimenez on his fantasy team – but was trying to protect an ERA and WHIP lead, so he left his starters on the bench.  So, he didn’t even get the fantasy points for the no-no.  Ouch.

Meanwhile, the Fox Sports team put in some overtime – the game of the week between the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals was a scoreless affair through eighteen innings before the Mets finally got a run off of outfielder Joe Mather to open the nineteenth inning.  Mather was the tenth pitcher used by Tony LaRussa – and SECOND position player (Felipe Lopez pitched a scoreless 18th inning).  Meanwhile, the Mets trotted out nine pitchers.  The eighth was closer Francisco Rodriguez – who blew the save opportunity.  Rodriguez admitted he was tired – he had been up and down in the bullpen and threw at least 100 pitches before heading to the mound.  Mather, however, stayed out a second inning and the Mets reached him for a second run in the top of the twentieth inning.  Mike Pelfrey, who was itching for a chance to participate, became the 19th pitcher of the game and earned the save.  [MLB]

Looking ahead to today, the Mets are out of pitchers – a bunch of guys threw at least 2 innings and 30 pitches, so Pelfrey may have to close again today.  Both managers will be hoping the Sunday night game starters, John Maine and Adam Wainwright, go the distance.

From the Training Room…

Giants outfielder Aaron Rowand was hit in the earflap of his helmet by a Vincente Padilla fastball, breaking two bones in his cheek.   With Rowand heading to the DL for two weeks, the Giants recalled infielder Matt Downs.

Wondering who Matt Downs is?  Downs was a 36th round draft pick in 2006 out of Alabama, but has made steady progress through the minors by hitting for a decent average, showing some power, and running the bases pretty well.  He even hit .372 in spring training this year…  Looking at his stats at Fresno, I think it transfers to a guy who might hit .250 with a dozen homers, a few walks, and ten or more steals, which on the Giants is an above average hitter…  I don’t know if he’ll stick but he became a better prospect than Kevin Frandsen, who was allowed to go to Boston instead.  Look for Downs to get some playing time – but he may not stay for long.

Royals infielder Chris Getz heads to the DL with an oblique strain that occurred diving into a base.  The Royals considered bringing back struggling infielder Mike Aviles, but brought back Alex Gordon instead.  Gordon, who missed most of last year following hip surgery, and then – feeling fit – broke his thumb diving into a base during a spring training game, may not be in the field right away.  [MLB]

Giants outfielder Mark DeRosa left Saturday’s game with a tweaked hammy.  He’s day-to-day.  [MLB]

Cubs pitcher (and Jayhawk alum) Tom Gorzelanny was drilled by a liner in the left shoulder and left the game for a pinch hitter in the third inning, but he says he won’t miss a start.  After getting drilled, Gorzelanny stayed in and finished his inning – he just didn’t stay in the game after that.  [MLB]

In this case, the injury might be an ego.  Addressing a story on FoxSports that ownership turned down offers from Cal Ripken, Jr. to become more involved with the Orioles operations, owner Peter Angelos said that if Cal wants to be a part of the team, he’d welcome that discussion.  [ESPN]

Angels closer Brian Fuentes is scheduling his minor league rehab in hopes of a mid-week return.  [MLB]

Indians closer (?) Kerry Wood will pitch a simulated game before heading to rehab and may return before May.  Wood is out with a sore back. [MLB]

Jarrod Saltalamacchia hopes to return to Texas, but his next rehab stint will be in AAA.  With soreness in his left shoulder and upper back, the Rangers want to see Salty catch nine innings before he returns next week.  [MLB]

Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins is on the DL with a strained calf.  The Phillies have been successful, in part, because so few regulars have spent any time on the DL…  (Brad Lidge isn’t a starter, but he’s spent the most time on the DL over the last couple of years.)  [FoxSports]

Pirates ace Ross Ohlendorf heads to the DL with back spasms…  In his place, the Pirates recalled starter Daniel McCutchen.  McCutchen faces the Reds, against whom he has his only MLB victory.  [MLB]

Orioles infielder Miguel Tejada strained a groin (hopefully his own) running the bases and is considered day-to-day.  Tejada, for all it’s worth, hasn’t missed a whole lot of games in his career.  [MLB]

Staying in Baltimore, outfielder Felix Pie strained his left shoulder batting on Thursday and was placed on the 15-day-DL.

Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan returned to the lineup this weekend after missing a couple of games with bruised left ribs sustained while making a game-saving diving catch on the hard warning track last Tuesday.  What he needs to feel better might be a few two-hit games…  [MLB]

Chan Ho Park, Yankee long reliever, headed to the DL with a hamstring strain that occurred while warming up in the bullpen.  If you injure yourself warming up, what does that say about your level of fitness?  [MLB]

Red Sox outfielder Mike Cameron returned to the lineup this weekend after passing a kidney stone (must have been SOME kind of a stone!).  [MLB]

Royals outfielder Jose Guillen took time to discuss his leg injuries from 2009 and revealed that he had life-threatening blood clots during the off-season.  [MLB]

Old News…

Giants outfielder Fred Lewis was disappointed with his lack of playing time – so he requested a trade.  San Francisco obliged his request, sending him to Toronto for future considerations.  Fred Lewis himself broke the story on his Facebook page.

Police Blotter…

A New Jersey man was arrested for his obnoxious behavior at a game after similar behavior got his friend removed from the stadium.  Angered by that, Matthew Clemmens then made himself vomit on a man and his 11-year-old daughter.  The man on the receiving end was an off-duty police officer who showed remarkable restraint by not pummeling Clemens (which, admittedly, I would have considered if someone had done that to me or my son).  Seriously – some credit is due the off-duty cop for his restraint.  Clemmens gets charged with a variety of offenses (disorderly behavior, assault, reckless endangerment) and should get to spend time in jail.  He should also be banned from attending any sporting event.  [FoxSports]

Music mogul Jay-Z is suing David Ortiz because Ortiz named his new Dominican nightclub 40/40 – the same name used by Jay-Z in nightclubs he owns…  [FoxSports]

Longest Division Games in the AL?

Boston – New York average 3:39 – well over the league average of about 2:56.  Joe Posnanski did the work – read his article.

From the Transaction Wire…

Twins pitcher Jose Mijares heads to the DL with an elbow strain.  Coming up from Rochester is pitcher Alex Burnett – a converted starter that has been nearly unhittable as a reliever since 2009.

The Braves need an extra arm and are extending a short stint to pitcher Jonny Venters.  If you saw his career stats, you’d know he’s a non-prospect.

With Esmerling Vasquez struggling, the Diamondbacks are giving a few innings to Kris Benson…  He’s still around?  Benson pitched for Texas last year and had an ERA of about 8.50 – and hasn’t been below 4.00 since 2000 when he was still in Pittsburgh.  Isn’t Pedro Martinez still available???

2010 Season Forecast: Pittsburgh Pirates

Last Five Years:
2009: 62 – 99 (6th, NL Central)
2008: 67 – 95
2007: 68 – 94
2006: 67 – 95
2005: 67 – 95

The Pirates won 79 games in 1997, which is the closest they have come to a winning season since 1992.

Runs Scored: 636 (Last, NL)
Runs Allowed: 768 (12th, NL)

Season Recap:

While we could hope that the Pirates would finally break the streak of losing seasons, most people figured that getting past 70 wins for the first time since 2004 would be an improvement…

Actually, the Pirates got out in front with decent April pitching.  After sweeping Florida and taking two from San Diego, Pittsburgh stood at 11 – 7.  Unfortunately, such heady days ended quickly as the Pirates went on to lose 14 of 17 as the offense stopped scoring any runs.  To their credit, the Pirates came back and had a winning June and on the 27th, the Pirates had gotten to within four games of .500

At this point, the Pirates sold out.  Nate McLouth was traded to Atlanta for a couple of prospects.  Nyjer Morgan went to Washington for Lastings Milledge (not sure why, either), Jack Wilson was sent to Seattle with a struggling Ian Snell.  Freddy Sanchez was packaged to San Francisco, and even former ace Tom Gorzelanny was shipped to Chicago with reliever John Grabow.

So, a team that actually was playing pretty well collapsed while testing a bunch of new guys, mixing in a variety of losing streaks between four and nine games long until they were fighting off the possibility of losing 100 games.  The Pirates lost 60 of their last 87 games.  Personally, I don’t know why the Pirates would want to ruin their season that way, but that’s just me.

Pitching:

Unlike Cincinnati, who had a few guys log a lot of innings but not one who was even SLIGHTLY above league average, the Pirates had a couple of decent arms.  Ross Ohlendorf got rolling down the stretch to win 11 games and save his team about seven extra runs in his 177 innings.  Zach Duke, usually a disappointment, logged 213 decent innings, walking just 49 guys, and edging nearly four runs better than the average guy.  Teams need Zach Dukes.  The Pirates wanted him to be an ace, which he is not, but Duke isn’t a problem.  Charlie Morton came over from Atlanta and was tolerable in his 18 starts.  Paul Maholm logged nearly 195 innings and wasn’t death.  Sometimes he looked pretty good.

What strikes you, however, in looking at the Pirates staff is the lack of a POWER arm.  Who on the staff strikes out a batter per inning?  Heck – who strikes out six per nine?  Nobody.  The closest thing the Pirates have to a live arm is Evan Meek, who had 42 Ks in 47 innings out of the pen, but his control keeps him from being a real stopper.  If you look at the guys who logged at least, say, 60 innings, you have nobody that blows you away.  The leader in strikeouts was Maholm with just 119.

Anyway – let’s look at what the Pirate rotation is going forward.  Maholm is back, as is Ohlendorf and Duke.  A full year of Charlie Morton – assuming he stays near league average as he did last year and doesn’t take a step back – will be better than what Ian Snell did last year (2 – 8, 5.36).  That leaves the fifth spot up for grabs.  Kevin Hart, acquired from Chicago for John Grabow, was miserable in his ten starts last year (1 – 8, 6.92) but really isn’t that bad.  Personally, I’d like to see Daniel McCutchen get a shot.  He got six decent starts down the stretch after going 13 – 6 with a 3.47 ERA and just 29 walks in 142.2 innings at Indianapolis.  He HAS to be better than what Kevin Hart did last year.

The Pirates are auditioning a ton of castoffs with Non-Roster Invites – a scary list of guys like Brian Burres, Jeff Karstens, Tyler Yates, and Jeremy Powell.  I don’t see any of these guys getting jobs other than those available in, say, Indianapolis.

The bullpen will be different.  After a rough year of Matt Capps, the Pirates signed Octavio Dotel to be the new closer.  Dotel has been a premium set up man, but as a closer he’s never really been up to the task – and that scares me.  Brendan Donnelly was signed (turns 39 on July 4th) to join Joel Hanrahan (my pick as future closer), Evan Meek, and Donnie Veal in the pen.  This is an eclectic mix of arms that I think improves if Kevin Hart is added to long relief and McCutchen is put in the rotation.

On the whole, however, I do see an improvement.  My take on it is that the starting rotation should be 20 runs better than last year.  It’s not enough.  They need a real ace to step forward – and Ohlendorf may be that guy – someone who is 20 – 30 runs above the league.  And to be really competitive, they need two.  I don’t see two of them here.  I see five guys who are within ten runs of league average over 200 innings – a bunch of third and fourth starters.

The bullpen may be better if only some of the guys logging innings (Jeff Karstens, Virgil Vasquez, and Chris Bootcheck) won’t be there.  But I don’t have strong faith that the eighth and ninth innings will be solid.  Let’s call it a wash.

Catching:

A full season of Ryan Doumit would help.  Doumit missed half the season, forcing Jason Jaramillo, not an offensive force, into the lineup.  Doumit is a middle of the order guy and could add 20 runs by hanging around for 130 games this year.  Defensively, this isn’t a strong group, being below average in team numbers (ERA, W-L PCT), fielding percentage, and being slightly mistake prone.  I’m not sure that Doumit will improve these numbers, but he’s the best Pirate against the running game and makes fewer mistakes than Robinson Diaz – who is NOT ready for the big leagues.

Infield:

Adam LaRoche is also gone – forgot to mention him in the selloff comment.  In his place might be Garrett Jones, who showed his slugging skills and wasn’t embarrassing at first base.  I don’t know that he’s going to be a huge step forward from LaRoche defensively, but you never know.  Jones hit 21 homers in 82 games – and a full season of that would be a huge step forward.  If not Jones, the Pirates may try Seattle prospect Jeff Clement there.  Clement has, at times, looked like the real deal in the minors but hasn’t put it all together in the bigs.  The Pirates would make immediate and big improvements if they would just move 2008 first round pick Pedro Alvarez here and call it good.

After Freddy Sanchez left, Delwyn Young took over and was a step back offensively and defensively.  Sanchez was creating about 5.5 runs per 27 outs; Young about 4.3.  Sanchez has slightly below average range (-3.9 plays per 800 balls in play), but Young was brutal (-10.2 per 800 balls in play).  To solve this problem, the Pirates picked up former Tampa Ray Akinora Iwamura.  Iwamura should be more like Sanchez in terms of range and batting.  Not playing Young is worth ten runs of offense.

Jack Wilson is gone and Ronny Cedeno is now the new shortstop.  Cedeno is a better fielder than Wilson these days – which could be worth ten runs over the course of a season – and was pretty much the same hitter.  Bobby Crosby arrives looking for a chance to play, but he’ll likely be a bench player for now.

Andy LaRoche finally got a shot at third base in the big leagues and proved to be a fantastic glove, but a league average hitter.  I like his chances of improving at the plate, however, now that he has a full season under his belt.

Looking forward, I see this team being about twenty runs better offensively and perhaps another twenty better defensively.  Unless, of course, Jeff Clement gets more playing time.  My fear is, in looking at the current depth chart, that Clement is going to get every chance at making the starting lineup.  If this happens, I’d go with no offensive improvement and only ten runs better defensively.

Outfield:

Wouldn’t it have been fun to see an outfield of, say, Jason Bay in left, Andrew McCutchen in center, and Nate McLouth in right?

Instead, McCutchen arrives as the full-time centerfielder.  He was a bit rough in the outfield last year, but he’ll be better – and he showed power, patience, and speed as an offensive force.  I like him a LOT.  And the other two guys are gone.

Garrett Jones will likely start in right field, which will be better than Brandon Moss offensively – but likely ten runs worse (or more) defensively.  Ryan Church is around, as is Moss.  Church used to be good until two nasty concussions clipped his 2008 season and likely affected his 2009 season.

In left, expect Lastings Milledge to get one last shot to make things work.  Milledge, to me, is the new Delmon Young.  He SHOULD be better, but is really nothing special.  Moss and Nyjer Morgan were great defenders and will be missed with this outfield.

I see the outfield being down this year – perhaps ten to twenty runs down offensively and twenty runs defensively.  If Milledge lives up to former top prospect expectations, it would help.  I just don’t buy it.

Prospects:

Well, the top pitchers in AAA (McCutchen, Morton, Vaszquez) are already in town.  Even Denny Bautista and Steven Jackson were given shots and didn’t take the world by storm.  The top AAA hitters are in Pittsburgh now, too.

Pedro Alvarez tore up AA playing for the Altoona Curve, hitting .333 with power.  He really needs to be on the Pirates now.  Gorkys Hernandez has great speed, and is 22 – but he needs to improve his OBP.  Jose Tabata, 21, is close to making it – he hit well enough at Altoona to get moved up to Indianapolis.  Not much power, better OBP than Hernandez with good contact skills, and decent speed.  Just not sure he’ll be better than a fourth outfielder at this point.  I think he can play some, though.  If Ryan Church doesn’t stay healthy, Tabata will get a shot.

The best pitchers at Altoona was probably Brad Lincoln (some power, good control) but it was the only time he looked solid since being drafted out of the University of Houston in the first round (2006).  He shares a birthday with the author, though, so he’s on my radar…  Former first round pick Daniel Moskos (2007) has control, but doesn’t blow people away – 77Ks in 149 innings.

Moving to Lynchburg, top picks Jordy Mercer (3rd Round, 2008) and Chase D’Arnaud (4th Round, 2008) started to show signs of progress.  Mercer might develop some power, while D’Arnaud seems to have a more well rounded game.  Both outhit Alvarez at A+ ball, but neither are REALLY better hitters…  You’ll see that when they get to AA.

On the whole, it’s hard to see who is going to help the Pirates, other than Alvarez, in the next year or two.

Outlook:

If the Pirates were serious about this, they’d get Jones in the outfield, move Alvarez to first base and play him now, and let both McCutchens play as often as possible.  This isn’t going to happen this spring, and as such, the Pirates have to hope for minor improvements.  I see the team scoring about 670 runs and allowing 740.  That gets them to 73 wins, which would look great compared to the last five years.  However, with the Reds and Brewers likely improving – it might not get to 73.  It might barely get to 70…