Category Archives: Dan Haren

Season Forecast: Arizona Diamondbacks

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Last Five Years:
2009:  70 – 92    (5th in NL West)
2008:  82 – 80
2007:  90 – 72
2006:  76 – 86
2005:  77 – 85

Runs Scored: 720 (8th, NL)
Runs Allowed: 782 (14th, NL)

The Diamondbacks play in a park that helps the offense – 817 runs were scored in games played at home, against the 685 runs scored on the road – so to be in the middle of the league in scoring tells you that the offense isn’t the eighth best offense in the NL.  It’s actually one of the worst.  One reason for it?  The Snakes struck out 1298 times, more than any other team in the majors.

Season Recap:

The Diamondbacks were the surprise team to win the NL Central in 2007 and then opened 2008 like they were going to stomp everyone.  Instead, they slowly collapsed until finally bleeding away the division on the last weekend of the season.

I don’t know about you, but something told me that the 2009 team would have to start guns a-blazing to feel good about the year, and should have been expected to win 80 – 85 games anyway.  Instead, Brandon Webb blew out his shoulder on opening day and the team never really recovered.  When the offense showed little consistent signs of life, the Diamondbacks fell to the bottom of the league and never really contended.  A losing stretch in early May put them behind the eight-ball, and many other losing stretches contributed to losing 92 games and finishing last in the division race.

That being said, as I see it the problem was tied to two things – losing Webb and replacing him with the ineffective Yusmeiro Petit and Billy Buckner probably cost the team about 60 runs defensively.  Despite that, the rest of the rotation and most of the bullpen were somewhat above average players.  That leaves the offense – and the offense wasn’t good enough to help the pitchers.

Pitching:

Danny Haren was magnificent – saving his team about 40 runs with his low ERA (3.14) in a tough park and pitching more than 229 innings.  Haren also fanned 223 while walking only 38 batters.  Doug Davis and Max Scherzer were league average in terms of ERA – though Scherzer looks to have a solid future as a #2 starter right now.  Jon Garland ate up enough innings as a #4 starter.  The only weak link was having to replace Webb with Buckner and Petit.

The bullpen featured no real aces – closer Chad Qualls had a 3.63 ERA and only 24 saves – but they had no problems, unless you consider a couple of short term players.  No reliever with more than 50 innings pitched was worse than league average.  Three of the four lefties, however, weren’t very good in short runs – including Scott Schoeneweis, Daniel Schlereth, and Doug Slaten.

Fielding:

Arizona pitchers weren’t helped too much here, but a lot of that is the park.

The infield of Chad Tracy, Felipe Lopez, Mark Reynolds, and Stephen Drew were basically average, though Lopez and Drew weren’t necessarily good at turning two.  The problem was that a couple of the backups weren’t very solid in limited innings – including the really poor 2018 innings Reynolds played at first and the 241.2 weak innings Augie Ojeda turned in at short.

The outfield should have been better, but Chris Young seemed to take his problems at the plate with him to the field, costing his team about eight runs.  Gerardo Parra is decent enough and Justin Upton, a pretty good right fielder, also got a lot of extra action with so many right handed pitchers on the staff.

Catchers Miguel Montero and Chris Snyder weren’t awful, though they were pretty easy to run on.

Batting:

The highs?  Justin Upton looks like the second coming of Henry Aaron.  You’d like him to walk a bit more, but he has developing power and hits .300.  Mark Reynolds fanned 223 times (!) to set the major league record but he doesn’t care.  He batted .260 with 44 homers, does draw a few walks, and puts runs on the board.  Felipe Lopez hit .301 at second, which was helpful, and Gerardo Parra hit .290 but didn’t do much else – he will be better with time.  Catcher Miguel Montero hit .294 with some power.  Stephen Drew was league average.

The problem is that the lows are LOW.  Chris Young, the regular centerfielder, hit all of .212, striking out 30% of the time, despite showing a little more patience.  Eric Byrnes came back from leg injuries to hit .226 with only 12 walks in half a season of plate appearances.  Chris Snyder batted .200 in 165 at bats.  Former producers Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy didn’t hit.  When Tony Clark retired – his bat failing him – his replacements on the roster, guys like Josh Whitesell and Brandon Allen didn’t hit either.  The really good teams have six or seven positive run producers and a couple of guys who pitch in.  The Diamondbacks had three and sometimes more guys who weren’t getting any hits and no bench players to write home about when the few that could hit took a day off.

Transactions:

On the way in?  Infielder Tony Abreu, acquired from the Dodgers and can play second or short.  He might well be a hitter, but I don’t see him as the new Rafael Furcal either.  Kelly Johnson was signed from Atlanta to play second – a decision I like – and Jeff Bailey was signed away from Boston, another decision I like because he is a solid bench player.  In January, Arizona added Adam LaRoche, which will pay off in the second half…  In March, the Snakes signed Kris Benson, who actually made the roster…  The Diamondbacks traded Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit for pitcher Edwin Jackson and Yankees prospect Ian Kennedy in the deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees…  I’m not sure I’d make that deal, but what the hey.  The other questionable deal was trading for Cubs malcontent pitcher Aaron Heilman.

On the way out?  Yusmeiro Petit was claimed by Seattle on waivers, Doug Davis signed a deal with Milwaukee and Chad Tracy signed with Chicago.  Eric Byrnes was released and called it a career.  Jon Garland was allowed to leave and pitch for the Angels.

Propspects:

At AAA Reno, the two hitting prospects appeared to be former White Sox farmhand Brandon Allen and utility outfielder Alex Romero.  Allen hit like Babe Ruth in 38 games to earn a call, but didn’t amount to much in 104 at bats with the Snakes.  I don’t think he’s THAT good, but he’ll be better in another shot.  Romero has had two trips to the bigs and didn’t hit either time and I think will be lucky to hit .260 in the majors.  The best pitchers in AAA were Buckner and 29-year-old Doug Slaten.  Buckner at least looked like a prospect, but hasn’t yet found his stride in the majors and may run out of time.

Schlereth tore through AA Mobile, fanning 39 in 26.2 innings, which is how he quickly was given a shot at the majors.  He’s a touch wild, but has a live arm.  Bryan Augenstein made nine starts there, finishing with a 0.99 ERA, 36Ks and only 9 walks in 45.2 innings.  Not nearly as successful at Reno, he still earned a tryout with the Snakes.  I think he’s going to be fine but is two years away.  Reliever Josh Ellis had a good year and might make the relief corps by the end of 2010.  A young arm is 2007 first round pick Jarrod Parker, who dominated A+ Visalia before getting sixteen decent starts in AA.

At Visalia, I also like pitcher Josh Collmenter who had a decent K/W ratio (152/55) in his 145 innings and he kept the ball in the park.  Obviously, he’s still a few years away.

Looking ahead for 2010:

The pitching staff will likely be weaker if Brandon Webb can’t pitch – and because I don’t like this year’s rotation compared to last year’s rotation.  I know – Jackson was very good for Detroit, but I think Max Scherzer looks like a solid pitcher.  Call it a wash.  Ian Kennedy won’t pitch as many innings as Doug Davis did and may not be as successful, and even though Jon Garland is just there to take up space, he’s better than most fifth starters.  His replacement may well be a step down and I think he’ll be missed.  As such, I see the rotation falling back by 25 runs.

The bullpen isn’t going to be better with Aaron Heilman – it could be worse by ten runs.

The offense?  I like adding LaRoche and Johnson, which I think could be worth 30 runs, mostly because LaRoche will be solid.  Johnson could come back nicely, but that means being as good as Lopez was last year.  A full year of Parra will be better than Eric Byrnes; if Chris Young can come back at all the outfield will also be better by 30 runs.  Defensively, the changes will not help the team and may make the infield defense a little worse.  However, the outfield defense, with two centerfielders and Upton should be steady.

As such, with 780 runs scored and 810 runs allowed, the Snakes should win 78 games.  That’s an improvement over last year, but not enough to threaten anybody at the top of the division.

NL’s Best and Worst Pitchers in 2009 – Hot Stove News…

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Quick news hits first before we take a quick look back at pitchers in 2009…

Tim Lincecum asked for $13 million when filing for arbitration – if he wins, it would be the highest amount paid to an arbitration eligible pitcher.  Of course, Lincecum is a bit of a party animal off the field, but between the lines he’s one of the five best pitchers in the National League.  He’s certainly one of the most valuable commodities – a pretty durable arm (so far) who gets a lot of batters out and wins games.  [ESPN/SI]

There’s a rather long list of players and teams avoiding arbitration or signing deals – you can get the list on SI or MLB – but the ones that caught my attention were (a) Jonathon Papelbon getting $9.35 million from Boston – about two million more than the going rate and (b) Bengie Molina likely returning to the Giants.  The Mets pursued Molina but apparently not hard enough, and are now stuck with playing backup catchers every day for another year (unless you consider Omir Santos a budding starter).  [FoxSports/ESPN]

FUN WITH DATA!

Having purchased my copy of the Lahman database, which is invaluable for doing quick queries so that I can plug data into my spreadsheets very easily, I can finally start doing the type of statistical analysis that I like…  I’ve already assembled the NL data and will be doing the AL data later this week.  And, after having knocked out the NL sheets, we get to have some fun with the lists it generates.  Today, we’ll start with the pitchers.

Top NL Starting Pitchers

The first rating system I have looks at how many runs a pitcher cost or saved his team over the course of the year above or below what the average pitcher allowed.  ERA is a pretty simple way to note this, mind you.  Someone with an ERA of 2.00 is two runs per nine innings better than someone with an ERA of 4.00.  However, it’s easier to have a low ERA when you pitch in San Diego, so I modify the runs allowed (not earned runs, but runs allowed) by removing the park effect.  Then, I also try to isolate the advantage a pitcher has in being on a team with a good defense vs. one with a bad defense.  For example, a pitcher on the Giants gets help from having a very solid defense – Randy Winn and Fred Lewis in the outfield are plus defenders at their position, the infielders were rather good as well.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals staff had behind them an injured Rick Ankiel or Chris Duncan or Ryan Ludwick in the outfield not catching as many flies as most teams and were playing an injured (and less mobile) Mark DeRosa at third and, perhaps more importantly, an outfielder at second base all year in Skip Schumaker.  Once I figure out how many runs the seven guys in the field affected the team’s ability to prevent runs, you can make a second modification to a pitcher’s runs allowed numbers and compare it with the league average.

The league average pitcher allowed about 4.53 runs per nine innings.  The total number of runs saved is not just dependent on runs allowed per nine, but the number of innings pitched.  The best pitchers in saving runs will usually be starters.  Sometimes, a reliever can sneak in there, but not very often.  Let’s get to the list.

Best Starters:

In terms of runs saved, the best starting pitchers in the National League were…

48.57 – Chris Carpenter (STL)
43.19 – Adam Wainwright (STL)
40.25 – Danny Haren (ARZ)
38.80 – Tim Lincecum (SF)
38.30 – Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)
38.16 – Jair Jurrjens (ATL)
36.39 – Javier Vasquez (ATL)
33.68 – Josh Johnson (FLA)
30.62 – Matt Cain (SF)
28.51 – Wandy Rodriguez (HOU)
28.09 – J.A. Happ (PHI)
26.14 – Ted Lilly (CHC)
23.33 – Jason Marquis (COL)
22.81 – Tommy Hanson (ATL)
21.32 – Clayton Kershaw (LA)

No other starters saved at least 20 runs more than an average pitcher would have allowed given the number of innings pitched by that player.  The top two guys were Cardinals – two pitchers who were wonderful despite having several players not necessarily having good years with the glove.  Those pitchers DO benefit from having the best catching in baseball (Yadier Molina) – but Carpenter’s 48+ runs saved over the average pitcher might be the largest number I have seen in the five years I have done this.  Based on this criteria, Carpenter deserved his Cy Young consideration.  Among the surprises on this list was Clayton Kershaw who couldn’t get any support from his team but really did pitch very, very well and I think could be a sleeper ace for 2010.  And, seeing how well Jason Marquis pitched for the first four months of the season, one assumes that Colorado will miss that kind of production.

Top Relievers:

18.13 – Kiko Calero (FLA)
17.86 – Ryan Franklin (STL)
16.29 – LaTroy Hawkins (HOU)
16.23 – Jeremy Affeldt (SF)
15.49 – Trevor Hoffman (MIL)
13.89 – Nick Massett (CIN)
13.42 – Rafael Soriano (ATL)
12.98 – Huston Street (COL)
12.57 – Jose Valverde (HOU)
12.36 – Todd Coffey (MIL)
12.15 – Tyler Clippard (WAS)

As has been the case for many years, the top relievers are frequently NOT closers but middle relievers who have really good seasons in less demanding roles.  Kiko Calero, who has never had a season anywhere NEAR what he did in 2009 is the surprise winner here.  That being said, the top closer was Ryan Franklin, followed closely by Trevor Hoffman.  More than any other list, this group will change a lot from year to year.  Any number close to 10 is a great year for a reliever.

Worst NL Pitchers…

-44.28 – Manny Parra (MIL)
-33.36 – Josh Geer (SD)
-32.70 – Braden Looper (MIL)
-31.70 – David Bush (MIL)
-31.25 – Jeff Suppan (MIL)
-27.36 – Chad Gaudin (SD)
-25.35 – Todd Wellemeyer (STL)
-22.83 – Micah Owings (CIN)
-21.95 – Felipe Paulino (HOU)
-21.90 – Brad Lidge (PHI)
-20.53 – Brian Moehler (HOU)
-20.20 – Walter Silva (SD)

-21.31 – Kevin Hart (PIT) – but positive 6.30 in CHC

These are the starters for teams who felt like they had no other option than to give 150 innings to someone with a 5+ ERA.  Or, in the case of Brad Lidge, a manager who kept feeding his closer the ball despite the fact that he was getting hammered all too often.  Rarely does a reliever make this list.

One thing that is immediately noticeable is the fact that four of the five worst pitchers in terms of their relation to the average pitcher were Brewers.  Look – they aren’t the worst pitchers.  There were guys with 8+ ERAs who got just 20 innings and were sent packing to AAA, too.  Or were hurt or something.  But the Brewers were hanging in there with four guys who are no better than long relievers.  Three of them had seen better days (Looper, Suppan, Bush), but wow.  One sees immediately where the Brewers should spend their money.  Go find three guys who can pitch.  If that means giving Ben Sheets a deal, do it.  Finding three guys who can give you a 4.20 ERA in 180 innings would move the Brewers up 10 games in the standings.  Is it that hard to find three of those guys?  I can’t wait to do my team overview for the Brewers…

Lincecum Takes Second Cy in Close Vote; Free Agency Bidding Starts Today!

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Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young in one of the closest votes yet, just seven points over Chris Carpenter – and the guy with the most first place votes, Adam Wainwright, finished third.

Not a whole lot of difference between the three (and even Danny Haren, who deserved consideration).  I’ll be honest, I don’t know how I would have voted if given a shot.  Lincecum is awesome, really, so it’s hard to vote against him.  From what I have read, Carpenter’s finishing second had to do with his missing time during the season.  Even Lincecum missed two starts, but he was there pretty much all year.

SI’s Ted Keith argues that Lincecum is worthy of Hall of Fame consideration.  He makes a valid point.

Quick Hits…

The last two players to file for free agency, with bidding on players starting today, were Andy Pettitte and Fernando Tatis.  In case you were keeping score, the number of major leaguers eligible who filed for free agency is 171.  [ESPN]

Stephen Strasburg will miss the championship game of the Arizona Fall League to nurse a twisted knee.  No way the Nationals will jeopardize his future, huh?  [ESPN]

The Royals have reached terms with free agent pitcher Brad Thompson, formerly in the St. Louis Cardinals chain.  Thompson isn’t close to being a long term fix – he doesn’t strike people out (180Ks in 385 innings), though he has decent control.  With a team that struggles defensively, Thompson will give up a lot of hits.  Though his career record is 21 – 17, most of that is being fortunate to be on the Cardinals.  At best he is a long reliever who can eat up innings in losing causes.  [FoxSports]

The Arizona Diamondbacks acquired Aaron Heilman from the Cubs for two prospects.  Heilman isn’t a bad seventh inning, long reliever type, but he’s never really taken that next step forward.  The Cubs get first baseman Ryne White.  (He’s a Chicago native, born in 1986 – hence that familiar first name…)  White is a Purdue grad, a little power and a good eye, but his batting average needs to get north of .300 to be a serious prospect.  We’ll see if he can take a step forward at A+ Daytona or AA next year.  The other prospect is a pitcher, Scott Maine.  Maine went to the University of Miami and was moved quickly up the ladder in the D-Backs chain because he strikes people out and has decent control.  He pitched well at AA and AAA in 2009,  but my guess is that he’ll start 2010 in Iowa and wait for a chance.  He’ll be on the roster soon, though – and could be a potential eighth inning guy.

Torii Hunter will have surgery to repair a sports hernia, but should be ready for Angels spring training in February.  [MLB]

Could Kansas City host the 2012 All-Star Game?  We down here in Florida, would prefer it to be at our new stadium (if it’s done by then), but we can wait until 2013 and let the good people of Kansas City enjoy a party at the refurbished “K”…  [MLB]

Happy Birthday!

Kenesaw Mountain Landis was born on this date in 1866.  He either saved the game or held it back, depending on the issue…  Landis helped get gambling out of the game following the scandals of the 1910s, but he helped prevent blacks from integrating the sport at the same time.

Others celebrating with cake, cards or rememberances:  Andy Coakley (1882), whose shove injured Rube Waddell’s shoulder prior to the 1905 World Series, Rick Monday (1945) – my brother’s first favorite ballplayer – and his teammate Jay Johnstone (1945), Alex Arias (1967), Gabe White (1971), J.D. Drew (1975), and Cub outfielder Sam Fuld (1981).

Pirates Sell Clemente Statue, Outfielders to Washington for Two Players and a Soldier on Horseback Monument to be Named Later (and other news…)

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The Pittsburgh Pirates made a second deal including an outfielder today, sending Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the Washington Nationals for outfielder Lastings Milledge and reliever Joel Hanrahan. [MLB]

The Nationals get a reasonably good defensive centerfielder with some offensive skills and a middle reliever who has been successful in a not-too demanding role.  Meanwhile the Pirates get an outfielder who just doesn’t seem to be living up to the promise (or at least the hopes of promise) attached to him while in the Mets farm system three years ago.  And, they get a failed closer who throws hard, but has a flat fastball.

If you want to know what the Nationals think of Milledge, listen to the comment from Acting GM Mike Rizzo: “We have a great character guy in Morgan.  We have our centerfielder.”

Morgan has essentially a full season of games in his career (157), and has hit .286 with little power, but he draws walks and has some speed (34 steals, but 18 caught stealing).  He’s not a bad fourth outfielder and isn’t even a horrible lead off option if he can just add about 10 points to his batting average and be even more selective at the plate.

Milledge is three years younger than Morgan, so there’s room to grow, but it doesn’t look like he’s grown much since he took AA by storm, hitting .337 at Binghamton.

As for Hanrahan, he was a surprise success for Washington in 2008, with a lot of strikeouts (93 in 84.1 innings) and nine saves when he took over the closer job down the stretch.  However, this year, he sports a 7.71 ERA and has given up 50 hits in 32.2 innings.  Hopefully the change of scenery (getting away from all that losing and going to the Pirates?) will help him find what made him successful last season.

I’m not convinced that the Pirates management has any idea what it’s doing.  It left it’s best prospect in AAA at the start of the season, gave away Nate McLouth for scratch, and now unloaded a productive corner outfielder for two distant prospects at best.  Now this.  How does adding two underperforming guys help Pittsburgh?

On to Other News…

Yesterday’s post included a report about Mike Lowell receiving treatment for his infected and troublesome hip.  Today, the Red Sox placed Lowell on the 15-Day DL.  Returning to the roster is Jeff Bailey, a very good first baseman and hitter, which means Kevin Youkilis will be playing more third base in the near future. [ESPN]

FoxSports reporter Ken Rosenthal reports that the Diamondbacks turned down the Angel’s trade offer for Dan Haren. [FoxSports]

Grady Sizemore’s left elbow may require surgery in the offseason to address the synovitis that causes an inflammation of the joint lining.  As Sizemore has already lost three weeks to the season, the goal is to keep him healthy enough not to miss many more games down the stretch. [SI]

ESPN’s rumor mill includes a note about Brandon Webb likely facing surgery to repair a torn labrum – per a report coming from the Arizona Republic. [ESPN]

Texas Centerfielder Josh Hamilton feels great in his rehab assignment and hopes to join the parent club this weekend.  Even if he returns, Hamilton will not participate in the All-Star Game’s Home Run Derby. [ESPN]

Cardinal Centerfielder Colby Rasmus has missed a few games suffering from a hiatal hernia.  The slumping rookie decided to check out stomach pains and, other than late night feedings contributing to some of the problem, the hernia was discovered.  He hopes to play this week. [SI]

With the Phillies losing Antonio Bastardo to the DL with a strained shoulder, Sergio Escalona gets the call from AAA Lehigh Valley.  Escalona has been with the club on and off this season with moderate success.  He had a solid 2008 in A and AA, turning out strikeouts but still walking a few guys.  He must have a live arm because the Phillies have constantly tried to move the guy up the ladder without having sustained success for long periods of time.  Not that he’s been horrible – it’s just hard to get a reading on a guy when he only pitches in a few games before he moves on.  Anyway – he might get a baseball card, and if he does, you won’t get much money on Ebay for it. [FoxSports]

Welcome Back!

Chad Tracy returns to Arizona after missing a month with a strained oblique.  [SI]

Former Notre Dame Wide Receiver Jeff Samardzija returns to the Cubs, replacing Jose Ascanio who was sent to AAA Iowa.  Though Samardzija was a starter at Iowa, he’ll likely spend more time in the Cubs bullpen. [MLB]

He won’t be back soon, but injured Reds starter Edinson Volquez was cleared to begin throwing.  According to reports, he’ll literally be starting from scratch. [MLB]

I see the Astros brought Mike Hampton off the DL today.  He’ll be back soon…

With Adrian Beltre heading to the DL for shoulder surgery, former Braves farmhand Ryan Langerhans gets a trip to the Mariners.