So Long, Tony LaRussa

Riding out in style with his third World Series win, the manager who watched the second most games from the dugout is calling it a career.  LaRussa will head to Cooperstown in a few years, likely joining Joe Torre and Bobby Cox.

I actually remember LaRussa as the young gun who turned the White Sox around in the early 1980s and got Chicago to the top of the AL West in 1983.  When the Sox grew tired of waiting for him to repeat his success (despite horrible support from upper management), the A’s were only too happy to snap him up, where he next guided Oakland to three World Series.  He managed in five different decades, winning divisions in four of them, and had a winning record in the postseason, too.  [Multiple Sources]

Sabathia to Stay a Yankee

CC Sabathia signed a one year extension which, when coupled with a buy-out clause, added $30 million to his existing contract with the New York Yankees.  This keeps the rotation anchor in pinstripes through at least the 2016 season with an option for 2017.  Sabathia added that he will refocus on maintaining a healthier body size, which he had done during the previous off-season by eliminating (among other things) Capt. Crunch cereals.  [MLB]

Indians, Braves Swipe Pitchers – Derek Lowe Heads to Cleveland

In the first trade of the Hot Stove season, the Cleveland Indians acquired starting pitcher Derek Lowe from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for minor league reliever Chris Jones.  The Braves will pay $10 million of Lowe’s 2012 salary, the last year of his four-year contract.

In his favor, Lowe has been a workhorse for the better part of a decade.  Working against him is the fact that he’s been in decline for the last couple of seasons and collapsed as the Braves fell apart in September.

In addition to unloading salary, Atlanta looks to get younger in the rotation.  With Lowe gone, the Braves make room to promote any of four potential rookie starters – including top prospect Julio Teheran, who got a cup of coffee after a 15 – 3 2.55 season at AAA Gwinnett.

For the Indians, they will pay $5 million of Lowe’s salary and add him to the rotation behind Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jiminez, and Fausto Carmona – hoping that Lowe has one more bounce back season and can add leadership to a generally young pitching staff.

Chris Jones was drafted by the Indians in 2007 but fell off the map for a couple of years.  He returned to pitch well for Kinston (A+) last year – winning seven of eight decisions with a decent strikeout rate.  His control is a bit out there, but he just turned 23 and is a converted lefty starter.

Twins Claim Maloney, Gray off Waivers

The Minnesota Twins bolstered the bullpen by claiming two pitchers off the waiver wire.  In Jeff Gray, the former Seattle middle reliever provides depth, and in Matt Maloney, the former Reds starter provides a little potential.  Gray has been up and down between AAA and the majors for about five years and hasn’t displayed much of a strikeout pitch, while Maloney has great control and fares pretty well against AAA bats.  Of the two, Maloney probably has the greatest chance to stick as he is a lefty who can either start or relieve.

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating with cards, cake, or remembrances include:

Bid McPhee (1859)
Vic Power (1927)
Miguel Dilone (1954)
Gary Redus (1956)
Fernando Valenzuela (1960)
Coco Crisp (1979)

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2011 Season Forecast: New York Yankees

Last Five Seasons:
2010:  95 – 67
2009: 103 – 59 (World Series Champs)
2008:  89 – 73
2007:  94 – 68
2006:  97 – 65

Runs Scored: 859 (Tops in the AL)
Runs Allowed: 693 (5th in the AL)

Based on this, the Yankees could have won the division with 98 wins…

2010 Recap:

Picked by many to repeat as AL East and World Series champs, the Yankees just missed by a game of winning the east, and had their starting rotation held up (or had they acquired Cliff Lee) they might have won the series, too.

The Yankees got off to a hot start, taking 15 of 22 in April, and having winning records every month until September, when they went 12 – 15 and were run down from behind by the Rays.  To be honest, they peaked after a long winning streak at 86 – 50, but actually collapsed to the finish line.  Had they missed the playoffs, it might have been given the same treatment as a Mets September, but for some reason, the Yankees were given a pass for going 9 – 17 down the stretch.

If I were them, I’d be nervous.

During the season, in addition to the run of the mill waiver claims and what not, the Yankees acquired Austin Kearns for spare parts from Cleveland, later picked up Kerry Wood at the trade deadline for two more minor leaguers, and gave up two decent prospects (Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes) to the Astros to pick up Lance Berkman.  Wood played pretty well, Kearns was just a backup, and Lance Berkman acted like he wanted to be somewhere else.

Starters:

The Yankees rotation is led by the remarkable C.C. Sabathia, who provided yet another season as a Cy Young candidate.  Philip Hughes took a big step forward by winning 18 decisions in 29 starts, but as a pitcher was just mildly better than the average starter.  Andy Pettitte heads to retirement following a remarkably good 21 starts, winning 11 of 14 decisions.  However, the #2 starter, A.J. Burnett went 10 – 15 with a 5.26 ERA – 25 runs worse than the average starter over 186.2 innings.  And Javier Vazquez was equally poor, despite the 10 – 10 record, with his 5.32 ERA.  Vazquez suffered as a flyball pitcher in Yankee Stadium, giving up a homer every fifth inning he pitched.  Dustin Moseley and Ivan Nova were tolerable when given chances to start – in fact Nova may earn a rotation spot in 2011.

However, the pitching is thin for 2011 in general.  The Yankees twice failed to get Cliff Lee to town (maybe the fans in Yankee Stadium should have been nicer to Lee’s wife).  Vazquez is now a Florida Marlin, Andy Pettitte has retired to Texas, and even Kerry Wood returned home (he’s pitching for the Cubs).  Sabathia returns, as does Burnett (he HAS to be better than last year), and Hughes will get 32 starts to see if he’s still got the magic.  That leaves Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, and former rotation stalwarts Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia – who are years removed from their better days.  I’m not a huge Garcia fan anymore, but he actually was tolerable as a fifth starter for the White Sox last year.  On the other hand, he won 12 games in his 28 starts despite a 4.64 ERA, served up a lot of homers, and only struck out 89 in 157 innings.  Vazquez came with much better credentials and stunk up the joint.  Ivan Nova or Sergio Mitre will have to step forward – and Mitre has enough innings under his belt to suggest he’s not the answer.  So that means Nova is likely to get a shot at being the #5 guy.

Bullpen:

Mariano Rivera continues to amaze as nears AARP status – a 1.80 ERA, 33 saves, and just 55 base runners in 60 innings.  Joba Chamberlain didn’t completely own the 7th or 8th inning, but there are still things to like, including a great K/9 rate and improved control.  Boone Logan and Damaso Marte served as solid one-out lefties, and David Robertson was decent in 61.1 innings.  Kerry Wood was impressive in his two months.

Looking ahead, Rivera returns for another go, but Rafael Soriano was imported from Tampa to provide an 8th inning ace and potential replacement closer.  The rest of the pen contains the familiar faces of Robertson, Logan, and Chamberlain, as well as newly added Pedro Feliciano.  Hopefully, these guys are ready for a step up in workload.

Catching:

Jorge Posada and Francisco Cervelli provided decent enough catching, even if teams ran rampant on Posada when he caught.  Posada can still hit some, so he will be moved to the DH role, which means that Cervelli will cede a few innings to Russell Martin.  Cervelli is a decent backup – no power, some defense, a fair batting average.  Four years ago, Martin was a solid defensive catcher and run producer, that is until Joe Torre ran him into the ground.

Infield:

The Yankees have an interesting mix of current and aging superstars. At third, you have the declining Alex Rodriguez, who is getting more comfortable at third base as his batting statistics fall off from his MVP level (and steroid supported) play.  At short is the captain, Derek Jeter.  When he hits .320, Jeter is the most productive shortstop in the AL despite his defensive flaws (range, really, is his only flaw and it’s really getting problematic – so stop giving him the gold glove when he hasn’t ever deserved one).  Last year, he hit .270 and the team let him know, through an ugly contract negotiation, that they noticed his decline was both offensive and defensive.  At second, you have the remarkably talented Robinson Cano, who is as good a fielder as can be found in the AL and light years ahead of any second sacker when batting, too.  At first, you have Mark Teixeira, who struggled to get out April, but still managed 33 homers, 108 RBI, and got on base at a .368 clip.  That’s a solid off season.  Backing them up is Ramiro Pena, who has little power but some defensive skills – much like Eduardo Nunez, who is the sixth infielder.

I’d like to think that Jeter can bounce back for one more .300 season.  If he does, that bodes well for his chances at 3500 hits and the Yankees continuing to make playoff runs.  Realistically, that’s not going to happen.  Same with Alex Rodriguez, who is barely making 30 homers per year, misses a month of games each year now, and also hit .270 instead of .310.  Playing in Yankee Stadium is also masking some of their decline; if Jeter had hit .255 with 7 homers, would anyone give him a chance of a comeback?  Cano should be able to duplicate his 2010 season, but last year was a significant step forward to superstardom.  And Teixeira will not have another April like last year.  The issue is that all four are generally durable (even A-Rod, with his hip, has never missed 60 games in a season) and now, with all but Cano at least two years into their 30s, the chances of someone missing a significant amount of time is going up.  I can’t help but think that this is the year – and neither Pena nor Nunez can hit enough to make up for that kind of loss.

Outfield:

The trio of Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Swisher return after all three provided solid production in 2010.  Of the three, Gardner has the greatest chance to produce more in 2011.  He could be moved up in the lineup (he should be the leadoff hitter), which would give him more opportunities.  Until then, he’s the best centerfielder playing left field on the team, and he’s the best #9 hitter in baseball.  Granderson found his power stroke near the end of the year, but he’s only marginally better than average because he doesn’t quite hit .250 anymore.  Swisher is coming off a career year in batting and slugging and remains a surprisingly good defensive outfielder.  Austin Kearns and Randy Winn are gone (thankfully), but they have imported aging slugger Andruw Jones to help out here and be the right handed counterpart at DH.  Greg Golson may be the best defensive option as the alliterative fourth outfielder; Golson or Colin Curtis.

DH:

Last year, Marcus Thames was the surprise hit of the team, launching 12 homers in 212 at bats, batting .288, and generating more runs per 27 outs than even Teixeira.  In 2011, look for Jorge Posada, Andruw Jones, and one or more of the others (Rodriguez, Swisher, Granderson, or even Jeter to pick up a few at bats here.

Down On the Farm:

It all starts with Jesus Montero, who is an expanded set of defensive skills away from being the next great Yankee catcher.  In AAA Scranton/Wilkes Barre, Montero hit for more power, was more selective, and – at 20 – is just about ready.  Eduardo Nunez got his first cup of coffee after tying Montero for the team lead in batting, stole 23 bases in 28 attempts, and played a steady shortstop.  At 24, he could step in and help out.  The top pitcher was Ivan Nova, who went 12 – 3 with a 2.86 ERA, showed good control, and was reasonably solid in his Yankee debut.  David Phelps moved up through two levels, going 6 – 0 in 14 starts at AA Trenton, then 4 – 2 in 11 starts at AAA – with great command and a sub 3.00 ERA.

Trenton featured first baseman Brandon Laird, a 23 year old who hit 23 – 90 – .291.  Hector Noesi went 8 – 4 with a 1.09 WHIP and an 86/18 K/BB rate.  Another pitcher making a step up was Adam Warren, who whipped through three levels since his 2009 draft (4th round), and has been impressive with his command and control at all three levels.

Corbin Joseph was a 4th round pick out of Franklin, TN in 2008 and hit .302 in A+ Tampa.  He’s a slight second baseman who seems to be developing a little power as he ages.  Another young prospect is Jose Pirela, a Venezuelan burner who plays shortstop and hit 13 triples for Tampa.  He may be fighting Joseph for a shot at the second base job in three years.  Among the top arms were Pat Venditte (4 – 1, 1.73, 85/14 in 72.2 innings), Dellen Betances – a Brooklyn native who clobbered Tampa opponents (8 – 1, 1.77, 88/19 in 81 innings), and Mexican teen sensation Manny Banuelos, who had 79Ks in 59.2 innings and seems to be ready for a full trip in AA Trenton.

Forecasting 2011:

It’s hard to pick against the Yankees because (a) the outfielders are all in their prime, as is Teixeira, and (b) the veterans they have are all still very productive.

On the other hand, this might be the year things fall off.  The Yankees won’t be getting MORE production in center or right fields.  They won’t be getting MORE production from second base, shortstop, or third base.  They won’t be getting MORE production behind the plate.  The only spots where improvement might be seen is left field – but that would be at the expense of another position.  I think the offense will still be good – but not 859 runs of good.  More like 780 runs – a top five offense rather than a #1 offense.

Then you have the defense, which could slip a little at four or five positions.  I’d swap Granderson and Gardner, which would help, but you never know if the Yankees would do that since Granderson is only 30.  You’d ALMOST want to switch A-ROD and Jeter – but I’m not certain that after the hip surgeries A-ROD can cover short anymore.  In fact, nobody in New York can cover short – which makes a lot of the pitchers look worse than they have to.  At least Jeter is still solid at turning two.

That brings us to the pitchers.  If Sabathia, who came to spring training in WAY better shape than he had been, were to miss any chunk of time, this team could fall off the map.  Hughes is good, but not great, Burnett isn’t dependable and is one slump away from being sent to the Pirates or something.  Your fourth and fifth starters are rookies or retreads.  I think the Yankees will allow a few more runs than in 2010 – maybe 40 more.  That puts the team around 780 runs scored and just 725 allowed, which converts to 87 wins.  And wait until the Steinbrenner boys see THAT number…

Hudson Says Race Keeps Dye, Sheffield From Getting Jobs

Orlando Hudson, speaking with Yahoo Sports, suggested that the reason sluggers Jermaine Dye and Gary Sheffield can’t get jobs is – well, he wouldn’t say specifically but he SUGGESTED that it was because they were black.  [Yahoo Sports]

Look – I’m not going to say that the country has tackled racism, but I thought that Gary Sheffield had already played for just about every team in baseball and had annoyed (or offended) most every owner in the country.  He’s in his 40s, hasn’t always stayed healthy, can’t really play the field anymore, but can still hit.  He was once linked to steroids in the BALCO scandal.

In Dye’s case, his fielding has become problematic and his second half last year was awful.  He, too, is past prime – having hit 36 – and a lot of teams are trying to keep their expenses down.  Johnny Damon thought he was worth $26 million over two years and wound up settling for about 20% of that over one season with Detroit.  The days of overpaid aging sluggers appears over.  It’s part age, it’s part teams focusing on defense AND offense, and for all we know it’s collusion.  The Union has suggested that already…

FoxSports writer Ken Rosenthal spends more time writing about it here.   Mine took fewer lines of copy, but I’m not getting paid for this…  [FoxSports]

Fun With Numbers…

Jorge Cantu has a hit and RBI in each of the Marlins’ first eight games – and twelve in a row going back to 2009.  George Kelly last did this in 1921 (according to Elias).  [ESPN]

The game needs to be sped up – and Bud Selig is on the case.  I’ve written about this before.  Get the batters to stay in the box and the pitchers to stay on the hill and keep throwing.  Faster games will also keep pitchers healthier – and if the average game time falls to 2:40, nobody is going to complain.  [SI]

Horrifying News…

Members of the Angels, including Jered Weaver and Matt Palmer, watched a man jump to his death from the pool deck of a Manhattan hotel yesterday.  [FoxSports]

Entertainment News…

Alex Rodriguez and Cameron Diaz?  I’d rather date Kate Hudson.  [FoxSports]

Cuban Signings in Tampa, Toronto…

Tampa signs Leslie Anderson, a veteran outfield/first baseman, while Toronto inks Adeiny Hechavarria, a shortstop.  Both are former members of the Cuban national team – and while Anderson may be a MLB ready hitter, he’s 28.  Hechavarria is just 21 and got the bigger signing bonus.  [SI]

Rehab News…

Arizona ace Brandon Webb is playing catch – but isn’t close to returning.  [MLB]

Mariner ace Cliff Lee is making progress, making 60+ pitches in a bullpen session and may return as early as May 1.  [ESPN]

Carlos Delgado had a second surgery on his hip and hopes to get a chance to play in the late summer.  [MLB]

Ouch!

Brad Hawpe is day to day with a strained quad.  Hawpe left yesterday’s Rockies game with even less mobility than he usually has in right field…

Kelly Shoppach broke up C.C. Sabathia‘s no hitter the other day despite pain in his knee.  Now, the Tampa backup catcher heads to the DL.

Hurry Back!

Padres starter Chris Young heads to the 15-day DL with tightness in his right shoulder.  (Affects my fantasy team…)
Toronto infielder Aaron Hill is out 15 days with a tight right hamstring.
Orioles infielder Brian Roberts is out 15 days with a strained abdominal muscle.
Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero heads out for 15 days with a right knee strain.
Nationals first baseman Mike Morse heads out for 15 days with a left calf strain.
Mets reliever Sean Green heads to the DL for 15 days with a right intercostal muscle strain.
Dodgers backup catcher Brad Ausmus is on the DL for 15 days with a pinched nerve in his lower back.

The Royals sent former AL Rookie of the Year Mike Aviles to AAA Omaha.  Wow – the Royals can’t keep a rookie performer, can they?

Welcome back!

A.J. Ellis gets the call to cover for the Dodgers while Ausmus is out.
Jeremy Reed gets the call to cover the infield for Toronto while Hill is out.
John Jaso gets the call to back up Dioner Navarro in Tampa while Shoppach is out.

Gil Meche returns to the Royals after a short DL stint.

Happy Birthday!

1927 – Don Mueller
1935 – Marty Keough
1941 – Pete Rose
1947 – Joe Lahoud
1966 – David Justice, Greg Maddux
1966 – Greg Myers
1969 – Brad Ausmus (obviously, will not get hits on his birthday)
1970 – Steve Avery
1971 – Gregg Zaun
1976 – Kyle Farnsworth
1982 – Josh Whitesell
1984 – Christopher Leroux

I predicted four hits for Mark Teixeira on his birthday and he had three.  Of course, they are the only three hits he has this year…  He should be BENCHED!!! (Not really.)

The guy who apparently needs to be benched is David Ortiz.  Or does he?  Let me know your thoughts!

2010 Season Forecast: New York Yankees

Last Five Seasons:

2009: 103 – 59 (1st AL East, World Champions)
2008:  89 – 73
2007:  94 – 68
2006:  97 – 65
2005:  95 – 67

Runs Scored: 915 (1st, MLB)
Runs Allowed: 753, (5th, AL)

The Yankees were good – don’t get me wrong.  Using the ratio of  runs scored to runs allowed, they would be expected to win 97 games, which is still three more than anyone else – but a little lucky.

Just a little.

If I can digress a little bit, a lot was made about the large number of home runs hit in the new Yankee Stadium.  Yankee batters hit 28 more homers at home than on the road.  The Yankee pitching staff allowed 21 more homers at home than in road games.  The net gain on this is about 70 runs.  (Pete Palmer calculates the value of a homer at 1.44 runs – so that’s how I come to that conclusion.)

Despite this split, the offense as a whole at Yankee Stadium was actually lower than on the road (819 runs in Yankee Stadium, while 839 runs on the road) – and it was their own offense that was probably more responsible for that shortfall.  what this means, of course, is that if you would expect to add 70 runs on the scoreboard but wind up 20 runs short, the REST of the hits must have been removed.

That means that there were a few other factors that had a greater affect on offense – the size of the foul territory, the shape of the outfield walls, the length of the infield grass, whatever – than whatever pushed homers over the right centerfield wall.  For example, the Yankees hit only five triples at home, but 16 on the road – and they hit 25 fewer doubles at home, too.  This suggests that by having a bit shorter wall in the alleys, some balls leave, but the rest are caught and outfielders could shade in and cut off sinking liners and bloop hits.  Singles weren’t going through the infield – which suggests that the grass must have been REALLY thick, especially on that left side where veterans with less range inhabit the infield…

You wouldn’t want to make a TON of conclusions about it, but we’re talking about making up for a lot of missing hits in 2009.  We’ll see how this holds up next year.

Let’s get back to the team review.

Season Recap:

The season started with the admission in spring training that Alex Rodriguez, recovering from off-season hip surgery, had also spent some time in the steroid cocktail lounge.  A-Rod would miss the first month of the season, and take a little while to get back into playing shape.  Still, the Yankees had made a number of significant moves – signing C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher – to rededicate themselves to the task of winning a championship in the new Yankee Stadium.

For a month or so, the Yankees stumbled out of the gate, winning and losing a couple, until a five game losing streak at home against Anaheim, Boston,and Tampa put them two games under .500.  While some wondered if it was because A-Rod was gone, the truth was that the pitchers had a 5.79 ERA in April (See Chien-Ming Wang or Sergio Mitre) and that just couldn’t be overcome by any decent offense.  After losing to Roy Halliday in Toronto on May 12th, Joe Girardi was already feeling the heat of the New York scribes who insisted that he might get fired before the All-Star break if things didn’t get turned around.

What followed the return of A-Rod to the lineup was the entire team feeling complete – and an eight game winning streak put the team on the way.  Sure – the Yankees had a couple of rough stretches, they lost three in a row twice, and were just six games over .500 on June 23.  A-Rod wasn’t yet hitting the way we were used to him hitting.  The middle relief was staggering a little.  Joba Chamberlain was hearing calls he might head back to the bullpen.  Again, however, the noise was just that.

On June 24, the Yankees got things figured out.  Bam!  Seven game winning streak.  Right after the all-star break – Bam! – eight game winning streak.  If the Yankees lost three in a row, look out.  Getting tossed by the White Sox, the Yankees responded with seven wins and twelve wins in thirteen games.  I counted SIX winning streaks of seven games or longer.  And after June, where they batted .253 with a .354 OBP, the team’s batting average was higher every month until the season ended.

The Yankees fought off Anaheim and Minnesota, then blew over a very good Philadelphia team to win the World Series.

Pitching:

The Yankees had a dominant starter in C.C. Sabathia, and then three decent guys in A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Joba Chamberlain.  The fifth slot, however, wasn’t very good – and was a problem until the Yankees finally turned it over to either Philip Hughes or summer acquisition Chad Gaudin.

Sabathia was amazing – 230 innings of typical good work, saving his team about 26 runs over his time on the mound.  A.J. Burnett won 13 and saved his team 10 runs in 207 innings.  Andy Pettitte, who has done this forever, isn’t a great pitcher anymore – he’s league average – but with this offense, that’s good enough for 14 wins.  If the Yankees could just leave Joba Chamberlain alone, he’d probably be okay.  He was solid until the latter part of the season where he fell off and was about as far below average as Burnett was above it – 11 runs.

The fifth spot was crazy…  Chien-Ming Wang went 1 – 6 with a 9.64 ERA, and will get to figure things out in Washington.  For three years, he was a fine pitcher, but 2009 was ROUGH.  The Yankees tried Sergio Mitre – nine starts and a 6.79 ERA.  After that, the Yankees moved long reliever Philip Hughes in and he was pretty good:  96Ks in 86 innings, good control, and a solid ERA.  I think he has as good a chance of anyone to be groomed for the closer role in a year or two.  Chad Gaudin got six starts and was good enough.

The bullpen starts with the greatest closer of the last 20 years, the incomparable Mariano Rivera, who saved his team 21 runs in his 66.1 innings.  With a 1.76 ERA, you’d never know he was pushing 40.  Hughes was a good compliment, but the rest of the bullpen was up and down.  Alfredo Aceves was tolerable – good control and won ten games in middle relief because the offense could come back from any number of deficits.  David Robertson struck out 63 in 43.2 innings and saved his team a few runs here and there.  Phil Coke didn’t allow too many hits – but the ones he allowed seemed to leave the yard (ten homers in 60 innings).

For 2010, the Yankees added Braves starter (and former Yankee) Javier Vasquez.  You always worry about bringing a flyball guy to new Yankee Stadium, so while I love that the Yankees added a durable innings eater, I don’t think he’s going to be the ACE that he looked like in Atlanta.  I think he’ll look like A.J. Burnett at best – with better control.  ERA around 4.00 – and fans complaining it’s not closer to 3.00.

Additionally, the Yankees probably don’t NEED a regular fifth starter.  They are the one team that could throw Sabathia, Burnett, and Vasquez all the time, Pettitte most of the time, and rotate Chamberlain or Gaudin in there to give people an extra day of rest from time to time.  Seriously – Sabathia could make 40 starts (if not abused in his starts) and MIGHT win 25 or 28 games.

The rotation is going to be about as good as last year – the benefits of Vasquez offsetting whatever loss in productivity comes from Pettitte as he wraps up his career.  The bullpen isn’t going to be better than last year – but it might get used more.  Looking at this, I see a possible five run drop off defensively, but not not more than ten runs off from 2009.

Catching:

A lot is made about how easy it is to run on Jorge Posada. That really wasn’t a problem last year.  Throw in the fact that his teams win, his pitchers are better than league average (two things he probably doesn’t deserve a LOT of credit for, but they are good), and the fact that he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes – that’s pretty good.  His backups, Francisco Cervelli and Jose Molina, do a pretty good job, though Molina won’t be here in 2010.  What will make you nervous is Posada’s age, which might affect his offense this year.

Infield:

Mark Teixeira was all that you would want – impressive offensively, stable defensively.  He’s probably the best first baseman in the AL right now, though Kendry Morales is pretty special, too.

Robinson Cano is in the discussion for best second baseman in baseball.  He has a great glove and might win a batting title – all while hitting 20 – 25 homers.

Derek Jeter remains the most productive shortstop in the AL because he can still hit, gets on base a lot, has enough power, and is so good a hitter that it overrides the fact that he’s a miserable glove – that horrible decision to give him a Gold Glove last year not withstanding.

Alex Rodriguez still towers over most third basemen, finishing 30 – 100 again as he has every year since about 1980…  His defense at the position has improved every year, but he’s still not really all that good.

What scares you is the lack of depth here.  Ramiro Pena is a good fielder and hits a little.  Jerry Hairston is gone and nobody else looks like a major leaguer.  Would you trust Juan Miranda with a job?

I’d love to tell you that this group is going to sustain its production in 2010, but I can’t help but think that age is going to creep up on Jeter or AROD, and if one or the other misses a significant amount of time, it would be problematic (although possibly a benefit defensively).  I look for this group to decline by 30 runs offensively in 2010, and for the defense to slip by five or ten runs.

Outfield:

Last year, the Yankees had a productive Johnny Damon, a tolerable but not impressive Melky Cabrera, and the fun Nick Swisher from left to right.  Only Swisher was mildly above average defensively, but all three were quality contributors with the bat.

Cabrera was moved to Atlanta in the Javier Vasquez trade, which means that Brett Gardner will be the full time centerfielder.  I like this – Gardner is better defensively and despite the lack of power is probaby going to produce more runs because he gets on base.  I like him in the #2 spot behind Jeter.

Losing Damon will be tough, but the Yankees acquired outfielder Curtis Granderson for prospect Austin Jackson to play left.  After running productivity numbers for the two, it’s literally a wash – with the Yankees getting younger.  Granderson has actually slipped two straight years after looking like one of the greats in 2007.  I like him as a left fielder, though – and the pitchers will, too.

Swisher returns to right field, will back up Teixeira from time to time.  The fourth outfielder will be Randy Winn, who is not much offensively anymore but remains a good outfielder.  If he has to play a lot, that would be a problem, though.

The net change of this group, however, I think will be positive.  I like them to score about 10 runs more than last year, and save 10 runs defensively.

Bench:

Last year’s DH was Hideki Matsui, who gets to ply his trade as an Angel in 2010.  In his place will be Nick Johnson, who has a fantastic OBP, sneaks a little power in there, and is a threat to get injured.

After that, I don’t see much of a bench.  Just Pena in the infield, and just Winn in the outfield.

Prospects:

AAA Scranton manager Butch Wynagar’s best pitching prospect is probably reliever Mark Melancon, who got a shot with the big club in 2009.  With Scranton, Melancon was 4 – 0 wiht a 2.89 ERA, fanning 54 and walking 11 in 53 innings.  Nobody else impresses me…  The best hitter was Austin Jackson, a speed demon who was traded to Detroit for Granderson.  Jackson hit .300 with nine triples and 24 steals.  Kevin Russo is an infielder with some skills, hitting .326 but without much power and with Cano and Jeter around isn’t going to get a shot without someone going down with an injury.  He’s probably as good as Ramiro Pena, but with better on base skills.  If you haven’t heard of Russo, it’s because he was a 20th round pick in 2006 and has surprised a lot of people working his way up through the ranks.  I think the kid can play, though.

The Trenton Thunder (AA) features the Yankee’s best prospect, catcher Jesus Montero, who hit .317 in AA after being moved up from Tampa (where, in a tough park, he hit .356).  He looks like the new Jorge Posada and will get Posada’s job in 2012 or so.  He’s just 20.  Eduardo Nunez has some hitting skills, but little patience.  He hit .322 in Trenton with nine homers.  It was the first time that the undrafted Dominican shorstop looked like a hitter.

If you are looking for pitching prospects, though, Trenton might have a few.  Michael Dunn fanned 76 in 53.1 innings, earning a trip to Scranton and eventually New York.  Starter Zach McAllister had a 2.23 ERA with good control in 22 starts.  Josh Schmidt has taken a while to get going but had a 1.61 ERA for Trenton last year – he has great K/9 stats and seems very hard to hit.  He’s just getting a bit old for a prospect.

At Tampa, David Phelps – a Notre Dame arm – looks to be making nice progress, and starter Lance Pendleton or D.J. Mitchell might get a chance to move up to Trenton after solid enough seasons in A+ ball.  Each could stand to work on their control, though.  And Austin Romine is a kid with a little power and speed that might work his way up the Yankee ladder in time, but as a catcher might be blocked by Montero.  2008 third round pick David Adams hit .281 with some power and patience – I like his chances to get to the Yankees (or get traded) by 2013.

Forecast:

Barring catastrophic injuries, the Yankees will be good in 2010.  They won’t win 110 games, I don’t think.  Healthy, the Yankees win 93 games and make the playoffs again.  Part of me thinks that it will be more likely 95 wins, but if the system says 93, I’ll go with that.

Halliday, Lee in Three Team Trade; Lackey to Bosox

Wow – the potential for a HUGE deal…  All baseball sources are reporting on a potential deal that would send Toronto ace Roy Halliday to the Phillies for prospects, while Cliff Lee would go from Philadelphia to the Seattle Mariners for a couple of prospects – one of which might go to Toronto as well.

In listening to the experts, the talk is that Cliff Lee wants a big deal after the 2010 season when he becomes a free agent – possibly Sabathia money – and the Phillies didn’t want to do that.  Meanwhile, Halliday has expressed an interest in playing in Philadelphia and would accept a “below market” deal (how is a $60 million, three-year extension really below market?) to go there.  Among the names included in the trade are outfielder Michael Taylor, pitcher Kyle Drabek, and catcher Travis D’Arnaud.  These three would head from Philadelphia to Toronto, while the Phillies would receive Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies from Seattle.  In this way, the Phillies still keep young talent while maintaining a top of the rotation anchor.  The Mariners get a two-headed monster at the top of the rotation for 2010 (King Felix and Cliff Lee – wow), and Toronto does a service for its star while loading up on young talent and building for 2012, I guess.

Well that’s a lot of stuff to review.  Once the deal is final, we’ll get you a complete run down of the players involved, some info on the prospects, and all that stuff.  Should be a gas!!!

Not the Only Big Deal…

Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox appear to have agreed to terms with pitcher John Lackey – five years and $85 million – pending a physical.  Lackey has been nicked up the last couple of years but appears to be healthy and was a horse for the Angels down the stretch.  He didn’t miss a start for the first six years of his career, which includes 102 wins and a 3.81 career ERA.  (Retrosheet shows that Lackey hasn’t necessarily been real successful in Boston, with a 5.75 ERA and a 2 – 5 record in Fenway, but he’s facing a really good Red Sox team, so it’s all relative.)  You have to like the top end of the Red Sox rotation with Lester, Lackey, and Beckett.  That’s 600 strikeouts if they all make 33 starts.  [SI]

The Sox weren’t done, working through a possible two-year $15 million deal with outfielder Mike Cameron.  I guess Jason Bay isn’t coming back.  Cameron isn’t an awful outfielder, and he’ll occasionally hit one out or take a walk – but we’re talking about a .250 hitting 37 year old guy now who has a lot of mileage on the tires…  It’s a step down in production from Manny to Bay to Cameron.  [SI]

The Angels did make their own move, coming to terms with Hideki Matsui on a one-year, $6 million deal.  Matsui was pretty solid as a DH in New York last year, but I don’t see how this is going to be THAT great a deal for the Angels.  They already have a DH outfielder in Vlad Guerrero and another DH outfielder in Bobby Abreu – and all three are limited in range, up there in years, and not guaranteed to play 120 games.  I guess between the three they have about two full time players.  They certainly have one of the older outfields in baseball.  [SI]

God bless old outfielders.  I’m one.

Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban teen with the triple digit fastball, has a $15 million offer from the Red Sox, according to sources.  We’ll see what comes out of a workout in Houston this week…  [ESPN]

Among the dozen teams angling for Pirates free agent closer Matt Capps?  The Cubs.  But, with so many teams showing interest, Capps and his agent are biding their time.  [ESPN]

Houston signed fourth outfielder Jason Michaels to a one-year, $800K deal.  Seems cheap…  Former Toronto pitcher Gustavo Chacin signed a minor league deal with the Astros…  [SI]

The Rockies signed Chris Iannetta to a multi-year deal to stay and catch in Colorado.  Ianetta gets three years and $8.3 million, with a club option for 2013.  [SI]

Could Colby Lewis be joining a team near you?  The one time Texas prospect has been pitching – and pitching well – in Japan for the Hiroshima Carp.  However, he’s ready to come home and be closer to his family.  [MLB]

Could Chien-Ming Wang become a Met?  I’d give him a minor league deal first, but you never know…  [MLB]

My favorite AAA+ pitcher, R.J. Swindle, signed a minor league deal with Tampa.

The Team Voted Most Likely to Party…

David Freese was arrested under the suspicion of a DUI – the fourth member of the Cardinals in this situation since spring training, 2007.  Freese is a third baseman and a pretty good prospect…  I guess if your chief sponsor is Anheuser-Busch, this is going to happen.  [SI]

Happy Birthday!

Remember the Hit Dog?  Mo Vaughn, once a feared hitter, turns 42 today.

Others celebrating with cake, cards, or remembrances include:  Jay “Nig” Clarke (1882), Eddie Robinson (1920), Haywood Sullivan (1930), Jim Leyland (1944), Stan Bahnsen (1944), Art Howe (1946), Doug Rau (1948), Mike Proly (1950), Rick Helling (1970) – the Texas union rep when nearly everyone on the Rangers was using steroids, Aaron Miles (1976), and Michael Wuertz (1978).

Afterthoughts…

Ron Santo got a three-year deal to stay on as the radio color commentator for the Chicago Cubs.  I don’t know if you listen to WGN, but he’s certainly a fan of the Cubs and has a good sense of humor.  As for his insight – well, he’s a fan of the Cubs.  I love Sanot, though.  The deal gives him a bit more freedom to deal with his health – as a diabetic, Santo has had both legs amputated and is working through issues with his new legs.  [MLB]

Lee is Unhittable; Other Baseball Topics…

Cliff Lee made it look easy, whether it was mowing down Yankee hitters, catching pop ups, or fielding grounders behind his back.  (Bummer about not landing Roy Halliday, huh?)  Game One goes to the Phillies…  Sabathia was solid enough, but Chase Utley pounded two homers – one a gargantuan shot – and the bullpen let the game get away in the eighth inning.  (On the other hand, Damaso Marte struck out Chase Utley looking in that inning without throwing a single pitch in the strike zone based on the Fox strike zone box…)

Tonight the Phillies send Pedro Martinez to the hill against A.J. Burnett and the Yankees.

For a nice breakdown of the two teams, depend on Sports Illustrated.  Ted Keith does a nice job here.  For 15 other interesting aspects of the series, check out John Heyman’s article, too.

For a really cool breakdown of how the Yankees and Phillies assembled their teams, check out this MLB article.  It covers salaries, trades, and what not.  Proof that you need money and a diverse plan for acquiring talent…

Suzyn Waldman is the first woman to call a World Series as a radio broadcaster.  I occasionally listen to John Sterling and Waldman broadcasts while driving home in my car; I like her better than Sterling.  Let’s start with Sterling having scripted all of his home run calls.  Sheesh.

And in other news…

The sale of the Chicago Cubs to the Ricketts family is complete.  Chairman Tom Ricketts says he’s going to set upon “…building a championship tradition the fans so richly deserve.”  [ESPN]

They wanted Manny Acta, but Acta signed with Cleveland.  So, Houston signed Boston bench coach Brad Mills.  (I think Mills got a Topps card back in 1981 or 1982 when he was with the Expos.  I’ll have to check that out as I am sorting cards later this month.)  [SI]

The Tampa Rays signed utility outfielder Gabe Kapler to a one-year deal.  [SI]

Rusty Greer was loved in Texas, and now he might be a hitting instructor.  I like it!  [ESPN]

Some couples can’t help but have their affairs spill into the public arena, but the McCourts are going to be an interesting diversion for baseball fans who also like reality TV…  Only in LA…  [SI]

Happy Birthday!

Charles Ebbets was born on this day in 1859…  Others celebrating with cake or cards include:  Solly Hofman, Cubs utility player of the early 1900s (1882), Earl Yingling (1889) – I write about him in chapter nine of Rube’s biography, Jim Bibby (1944), and Dana Eveland (1982).

Afterthoughts…

And what would YOU do to get World Series tickets?  This woman got arrested for offering, um, a few of her assets (allegedly).  [ESPN]

Yankees – Phillies on Wednesday as Angels Collapse…

It was over within minutes of the first gaffe, a baserunning blunder by Vlad Guerrero where he got caught off of first base on a shallow fly to right field.  Suddenly, Joe Saunders couldn’t get the same strike calls as Andy Pettitte – who really was great, by the way – and a few walks led to a Johnny Damon liner that put the Yankees ahead for good.  However, I still thought the Angels had a chance with Mariano Rivera out there for a six out save.  Los Angeles extended Mariano in the eighth inning and got a run to cut the lead to 3 – 2.  If the Angels and Scott Kazmir could have gotten a very quick 1-2-3 inning in the bottom of the eighth, I would have bet on the Angels to force a game seven.  Instead, two errors on consecutive bunts finished off whatever life was in the Angels.  Rivera, now rested, easily dispatched three batters in the ninth and the Yankees are heading to the World Series.

Tomorrow or Wednesday, we’ll take a few minutes to break it down – but long and short, the two best teams in each league are meeting to decide it all.  And that’s cool.  To make the Indians feel worse, it’ll be Cliff Lee against C.C. Sabathia in the opener on Wednesday night…

Mike Scioscia was generally complimentary of the Yankees, but he did bag MLB for catering to Fox TV wishes and adding a number of off days between the end of the season and the playoffs, between each round of the playoffs, and even adding off days within the playoffs.  He’s right, you know.  The Yankees and Angels, after playing 162 games in 180 days during the regular season, only played eight games in the last 20.  Suddenly the fall classic is forced into playing World Series games in November.  [ESPN]

Other news…

Steve Phillips didn’t survive his latest sex scandal and now will have to hope for a book deal after he completes a recovery program at a treatment facility for an undisclosed problem.  ESPN fired the Baseball Tonight analyst because his reputation was “irreparably damaged.”  [ESPN]

Tim Hudson and the Atlanta Braves are discussing a three-year deal that would replace his one-year $12 million option for 2010.  Hudson looked good following Tommy John surgery and is potentially a free agent.  [ESPN]

Happy Birthday!

Two very patient hitters of the 70s and 80s celebrate today – Toby Harrah (1948) ad Mike Hargrove (1949).  Others celebrating include:  Frank Selee (1859), William (Kid) Gleason (1866), Lee Tannehill (1880), Harry Camnitz (1884), Snuffy Stirnweis (1918), Elio Chacon (1936), Steve Rogers (1949), Wayne Garland (1950), Mark Sweeney (1969), and Francisco Liriano (1983)