Chasing Pete Rose

Posted on August 29, 2013 by Paul Proia

In honor of Ichiro Suzuki getting his 4000th hit in his professional career – and Pete Rose reminding everyone that those hits in Japan shouldn’t count, I thought I’d see who was chasing Rose by age group and determine if anyone had a chance to catch him.

Before I do, though, let’s remind Rose that Ichiro didn’t start playing in the US until his was 27 and when he got here he was already a dominant hitter (.350, 242 hits). Had he come to the US when he was younger, he likely would have had at least five additional years of 200 hits or so – which means he might already have 3700 hits in the US and a legitimate shot at having more hits than Rose.

But that’s no matter…

Let’s do this by age as the oldest active hitter right now is Jason Giambi. Giambi leads all 42 year olds in hits with 1968 coming into the season and is a threat to make it to 2000, but not much further. #2 on this list is Brian Giles, who hasn’t played in forever…

(41) The leaders at 41 are all in the clubhouse – literally. Pudge Rodriguez had 2844 hits, followed by Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, and Garret Anderson. The active leader in this group is Andy Pettitte, with 27.

(40) Like 42, this is not a prolific hitting group, led by the long-retired Shawn Green at 2003.

(39) The first age with a challenger – Derek Jeter. Jeter was making progress until this year, where he has but four hits. He needed another year of around 200. At 3308, he needs about 950 hits to catch Rose, which means playing well until he is at least 45. That’s not likely. He could finish in the top five, though. Suzuki is on this list – 2722 as of this week.

(38) Vlad Guerrero leads people at 38 with 2590, but he is done (sadly). Bengie Molina is the active leader, assuming he still has a job at the end of the year.

(37) Alex Rodriguez opened the year with 2901, and then sat most of it out. He would likely have cleared 3000, and even if he played long enough to fulfill his contract, I don’t see him getting the additional 1300 hits he’s going to need to catch Rose. He’d have to play until he is 47, which is chemically possible.

Paul Konerko and Torii Hunter are the other active leaders, but neither would be expected to make it to 2500, much less 3000. David Ortiz and Lance Berkman might make it to 2000 – Ortiz could make it by the end of the year with a hot streak, and push toward 2500 before it’s over.

(36) Michael Young leads the group, with Carlos Beltran behind him. Young looked like a candidate to make a run for 3000 at one point, but now looks like he might run out of gas without making 2500. Beltran’s knees may betray him before he makes 2500, too.

(35) The leader in the clubhouse is Juan Pierre, but it’s going to be tough to make it to 3000 (he has about 800 to go) as a fourth outfielder. Aramis Ramirez will make a run toward about 2400 before it ends.

(34) Adrian Beltre will finish 2013 with about 2400 hits. He looks to be on a good roll, but he’s reached the age at which, well, age matters. I think he may finish with the same number of hits as George Brett. Jimmy Rollins has closed in on 2200, but he isn’t going to make it to 3000 without finding the foutain of youth.

(33) Albert Pujols dominates this age group, but the last two years, including an injury-plagued 2013, have slowed his pace. He’s less than 700 hits from 3000, which still seams easily within reach, but going deep in the 3000s no longer seems probable. Matt Holiday passed Mark Teixeira this year, but he still needs about 300 to get to 2000 and will make a run at 3000, but not without staying healthy and productive for at least six more years.

(32) To have a shot at 4000 hits, someone who is 32 should already be well past 2000 hits. Alex Rios leads this group and will finish the year with more than 1500 hits. He’ll make it to 2000, but he won’t make 2500.

(31) The leader at this age group, Carl Crawford, seemed on his way after, say, 2009. He has lost his momentum, though, and may be hard pressed to turn what will be about 1800 hits to 3000. Adrian Gonzalez is on this list – pushing 1500, but hard pressed to make much more than 2500.

(30) Miguel Cabrera dominates this age group – he will finish 2013 around 2000 hits. I don’t see him averaging 200 hits a year until he’s 40, but he could average 160 hits a year for that long. That means he needs to play two or three more years beyond 40 to get to 4000 hits. Obviously this is conjecture, but Cabrera is the only guy with even a SMALL chance of competing with Pete Rose, but you never know. I’m rooting for him.

The rest of the 30s, including Jose Reyes, Robinson Cano, and David Wright, will push 2500, but not much more. Reyes may not stay healthy enough to make 2000…

(29) Leading this group are Nick Markakis, Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, and Ryan Braun, all between 1300 and 1400 hits. None of these will make 3000 hits, much less 4000.

(28) You’d think you might have a bunch of hitters with well over 1200 hits here, but you have one – Ryan Zimmerman. None of the really good hitters in this age group (Matt Kemp, Troy Tulowitzki) started the year over 1000 – or can stay healthy.

(27) Billy Butler passed 1000 this year and is rolling past 1100 now. Adam Jones is making a run at 1000 by the end of the season. After that, nobody has made any real progress. Those are the only two making any run at 2000 hits – and will be hard pressed to make 2500.

(26) The top bat in this group will likely be Andrew McCutchen, who will finish the year north of 800. Ten years of 170 hits would be 2500, and he’d have some time to make 3000. Austin Jackson might make 2000, as could Pablo Sandoval, if he becomes a DH.

(25) Nobody is challenging Justin Upton, who will be short of 800 hits by the end of the season. I thought he had the best chance to have statistics that looked like Hank Aaron going into 2012, but he hasn’t taken that next step forward. If he gets going, he could make 3000. If not, he might not make 2000 and that would be sad.

(24) The early leader is Elvis Andrus, who will be around 800 at the end of 2013. That’s where you need to be at this point – pushing that first 1000 at the end of your age 25 season. His glove will keep him around and he seems to be making marginal progress every year. He needs to stay at the top of the lineup to get the at bats, but he is best poised for 3000 hits of the younger players.

(23) Starlin Castro is having an off year in 2013, but will still finish the year around 700 hits. Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton are on this list – but already a couple of hundred hits off Castro’s pace. The other young hitters are just getting started. Castro is the one to watch. If he can start rattling off hits for the next seven years, he could be well on the way to a big number.

(22) Heading into this season, there were no players with any active history. That doesn’t bode bell for someone running far beyond 2000 hits.

(21) Mike Trout – 209 hits heading into the season, 400 hits at the end of the season. That’s the kind of start that suggests a big number in the future – we can check in ten years and see what is happening…

(20) Bryce Harper and Manny Machado – both are capable and just getting started.

2011 Season Forecast: Chicago White Sox

Posted on March 6, 2011 by Paul Proia

Last Five Seasons:

2010: 88 – 74
2009: 79 – 83
2008: 89 – 74
2007: 72 – 90
2006: 90 – 72

The White Sox have been competitive for much of the last six or seven years, 2007 notwithstanding.

Runs Scored: 752 (7th in the AL)
Runs Allowed: 704 ( 8th in the AL)

With this combination, the White Sox would be expected to win 86 games or so – right about where they finished.

Season Recap:

At the beginning of the season, many expected the White Sox to contend with the Twins for the AL Central crown, and they contended until the last few days of the season.

The Sox actually got off to kind of a slow start, having losing records in April and May. At one point, the Sox were eight games under .500 and threatening to finish in last place at 24 – 33 after a loss to Detroit. However, the Sox got SCORCHING HOT, winning eleven in a row and fifteen of sixteen to sprint back into the race. (Of course, they played the Cubs, Pirates, Nationals, and Braves for that stretch, losing only a 1 – 0 game to Ted Lilly and the Cubs which likely saved Lou Piniella’s job.) Another nine game winning streak got the Sox to 50 – 39, at which point people started to think playoffs.

Once they had to face teams in their division, however, the Sox fell back. Only one more hot streak – a seven game winning streak in the beginning of September – kept them alive. Then, facing the Twins and Tigers, the Sox lost eight in a row (the last two to Oakland), and they were done. The Twins beat the Sox 13 times, the difference between first and second place.

During the season, the Sox acquired two players, trading Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg to Arizona for Edwin Jackson and claiming Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers after he had been waived. Neither player figured heavily in the team’s fortunes down the stretch. Jackson pitched reasonably well in his eleven starts; Manny – not so much, but only batted 69 times.
Starters:

The Sox have a LOT of quality starting pitching. John Danks was fantastic – 213 innings and saving his team 24 runs over that span. Mark Buehrle did what he always does, throws strikes, eats innings, and wins games. Gavin Floyd was saddled with a losing record but, like Buehrle is an above average pitcher with a record of durability. Jake Peavy was expected to be the ace, but he suffered a significant tear in a muscle behind his throwing shoulder and hopes to be back for much of the 2011 season after having an experimental surgery to repair it. Last year’s #5, Freddy Garcia, was surprisingly effective in 28 starts but won’t be back because Edwin Jackson is about the best fifth starter you can possibly imagine. 37 wins in the last three years, a no-hitter last year, and a power arm. It’s hard to find a better overall rotation outside of Philadelphia anywhere.

Relievers:

Bobby Jenks and his 4.44 ERA is no longer the closer, having moved on to Boston. And, J.J. Putz, the former set up man, is a closer in Arizona. Don’t worry about the Pale Hose, though, because the rest of the bullpen is as good as the rotation. Chris Sale was impressive in 23.1 innings, striking out 32 batters and allowing just 15 hits – and becomes the new closer. His late season dominance allowed Jenks, who was losing his effectiveness, to leave town. Scott Thornton has been a solid reliever for a couple of years now and becomes the lock down set up man. Sergio Santos was effective, Jesse Crain and Will Ohman have been imported to provide middle inning support options, and Tony Pena can do the job as a swing man or long reliever.

Catching:

The Sox have a decent tandem in A.J. Pierzynski and Ramon Castro. Pierzynski is starting to show signs of age, but is still reasonably effective. Castro is a good enough hitter to warrant more playing time if needed. As a defensive unit, the two were above average in five categories (ERA, Winning Percentage, Caught Stealing, Mistakes per Game, and Fielding Percentage on plays other than strikeouts), and below average only in mobility categories.

Infield:

Both offensively and defensively, you had two positions working in the Sox favor, and two working the other way. Paul Konerko remains a sturdy bat in the middle of the lineup, but defensively he and his 2010 backup, Mark Kotsay, are well below average. At second base, Gordon Beckham, you had the opposite. Beckham has decent enough defensive skills, but didn’t hold his own with the bat in 2010, unlike what he suggested was possible in 2009. At short, Alexei Ramirez was solid offensively despite a rather low OBP because he hit for power and had a reasonably good batting average. And, defensively, he played at a gold glove level. Then you have the hole at third, where Mark Teahan had an off year and couldn’t stay healthy either – costing the team runs with the glove and bat. The person who played the most at third was the elder statesman, Omar Vizquel, who looked very out of place defensively and hit like Paul Bako with even less power.

Arriving to help the cause is Brent Morel, a third round pick in 2008 out of Cal Poly, who has shown a plus bat and some power. In AA and AAA, he hit 10 – 60 – .322 and earned a 21 game tryout with the Sox in September. If Morel can hold his own at the position and hit .280 with a dozen homers, this would be a significant step up for the Sox over what played there in 2010.

Outfield:

Alex Rios came over from Toronto, played center extremely well, and put a lot of runs on the board – his best season since signing that huge contract a few years ago. Juan Pierre remains the left fielder – though Mighty Casey can’t explain it. For a guy who is supposed to be fast, he’s NOT a plus range fielder, and unless he’s hitting .320, he’s a waste of at bats. In right, Carlos Quentin was so bad defensively that he offset whatever benefits having Rios and Pierre in center and left may have provided. His power is still around, but he misses a lot games (much less pitches). I think the Sox will miss Andruw Jones, who can’t really cover any ground but hit 19 homers in essentially a half season of at bats. Alejando De Aza is the new fourth outfielder, a guy I used to root for in Florida, and is running out of chances to stick. He can play a little.

DH:

Last year, there was a rotation of hitters, none who will be anywhere as good as the newly signed free agent, Adam Dunn. Dunn is an offensive force, and gives the team depth at left or first base, too. (He can’t field them, but he can certainly hit enough so that you won’t notice too much.)

Down on the Farm:

Brett Morel we covered… Behind him on the AAA depth chart is 3B-1B candidate Dayan Viciedo, a 22-year-old Cuban kid with serious power and upside and didn’t disappoint when given a shot with the parent club in 2010. If Paul Konerko starts to get old, Viciedo could step in and be a quality first baseman for more than a decade. Pitcher Daniel Hudson looked to be close to ready, but was sent to Arizona for Edwin Jackson at the trade deadline. Hudson looked like he could be as good as Jackson, but Arizona is rebuilding while the White Sox are merely retooling.

At AA Birmingham, first baseman Jimmy Gallagher had a season that looks like something on the back of Mark Grace’s baseball card, but may not have a future here unless it’s as a pinch hitter. The pitcher who stands out, to me anyway, is reliever Deunte Heath, who fanned 84 in 57.2 innings, but may have issues harnessing his control. Anthony Carter also had a decent season in relief.

A guy who seems to have the team’s eye is Gregory Infante, who converted from a starter to a reliever and blew through A+ Winston-Salem and then Birmingham. 69Ks in 60 innings, didn’t allow a single homer (just 12 in 291 minor league innings), and for a really young kid out of Caracas, Venezuela, he may get a shot at closing in AAA. A guy you may read about in 2011 could be Justin Greene, a centerfielder with speed and power who also blew through A+ and landed at AA. Dylan Axelrod had a 1.99 ERA in Winston-Salem, earning a promotion to AA, and things are finally starting to click for him. Working against him is the fact that he’s a late round pick originally drafted by San Diego, and the Sox having a lot of starters at the big league level who aren’t going away anytime soon.

2011 Forecast:

I’m feeling a bit optimistic about the Sox, mostly because Dunn and Morel could quickly address the two biggest weaknesses they have. You have the potential regression of Pierzinski, Konerko, Pierre, Rios, and Quentin, weighed against the potential of gaining 80 or more offensive runs with Morel and Dunn. The pitching staff will be equally solid and could be marginally better – and would be really good if there weren’t two holes on the same side of the field (Konerko, Quentin). Still – a full season of Morel at third should help the overall defense, too. I like getting Jenks out of the closer role, and the Sox pen is still very, very good. I like the White Sox scoring 825 runs and allowing barely 700, which puts the sox at 95 wins. I also think the Sox could win the World Series, another shot across the bow at Cub fans who continue to wait for a miracle that won’t arrive until they figure out how to manage resources.

Working against the Sox is the idea that Jake Peavy’s shoulder may explode at any moment, and Ozzie Guillen imploding after another irrational outburst at his general manager, who has assembled quite the roster. Ozzie – sit back and enjoy the ride to the playoffs.

2010 Top AL Centerfielders

Posted on February 27, 2011 by Paul Proia

If Josh Hamilton were a centerfielder every day, he’d rank first with 136.2 Total Runs Productivity – well above everyone else on this list. On the other hand, it would likely be lower because he no longer has the range to play center and, when he does, he gets hurt.

Torii Hunter – LAA (103.9 Runs Created, 5.9 Runs Saved = 109.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Don’t let that Runs Saved number fool you – he was great as a right fielder, but marginally below average in center. The move to right is the right move, and Hunter remains a formidable offensive weapon.

Austin Jackson – DET (91.7 Runs Created, 4.6 Runs Saved = 96.3 Total Runs Productivity)

A fine rookie season. Sure – he struck out nearly as often as he got a hit, but he got a lot of those, turning many into doubles and triples. Has room for improvement, and time to do it.

Alex Rios – CHI (87.6 Runs created, 8.0 Runs Saved = 95.6 Total Runs Productivity)

The change of scenery did him well, and getting to be a regular centerfielder, Rios had a very good season. As a player, a dead ringer for Adam Jones, only with more experience and a tad more speed.

Vernon Wells – TOR (99.3 Runs Created, -7.4 Runs Saved = 91.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Heading to LA where he won’t be asked to play centerfield very often, which is good because Wells hasn’t been a league average fielder in center since the first George W term. Rajai Davis gets the job in 2011, and I’m not sure that’s going to be an improvement.

B.J. Upton – TB (90.0 Runs Created, 1.8 Runs Saved = 91.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Has bat speed and foot speed that anyone would die for, and knows the strike zone. And yet, he’s a disappointment. He strikes out a LOT. Now dogged for dogging it, and yet a very valuable player for the Rays.

Adam Jones – BAL (80.5 Runs Created, 7.9 Runs Saved = 88.4 Total Runs Productivity)

A good, but not great player – decent average, good power, some speed, above average glove. Wish he were more patient, or could take it up a notch. I was listening to a Baseball Prospectus podcast and Kevin Goldstein noted that, with the end of Ken Griffey’s career, we really haven’t had a big time centerfielder for a while – and that remains true.

Denard Span – MIN (78.9 Runs Created, 3.9 Runs Saved = 82.8 Total Runs Productivity)

Good baserunner, gets on base, but has little to no power. Above average range in center. Not a horrible centerfielder, but not making anyone forget Kirby Puckett.

Franklin Gutierrez – SEA (74.4 Runs Created, 1.1 Runs Saved = 75.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Wonder if the struggles of the Mariner season got to Gutierrez? Fell off offensively and defensively in 2010 to the point he was just a league average player. He will have better seasons.

Rajai Davis – OAK (74.4 Runs Created,-2.1 Runs Saved = 72.3 Total Runs Productivity)

Speedster, stats hidden by playing in Oakland (not that he’s really Mickey Mantle or something). Not an awful player, but he’d help more if he could add something else to his skill set. Your new Blue Jays centerfielder…

Curtis Granderson – NYY (67.3 Runs Created, -5.8 Runs Saved = 61.5 Total Runs Productivity)

Brett Gardner covers more ground, and is a more valuable hitter. I like Granderson, don’t get me wrong, but they should switch and put Granderson in left.

Trevor Crowe – CLE (49.0 Runs Created, 11.4 Runs Saved = 60.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Has speed, but will probably show little growth as a hitter since he’s already 27 and wasn’t a world beater in the minors, Crowe played more centerfield but was just a few innings from leading the Indians in time spent in left field as well. At this point, he’s a much better defensive player than Grady Sizemore, but he needs to increase either his on base percentage or slugging percentage to be worth giving 1000 innings in the field. He’s really a fifth outfielder at best.

Coco Crisp – OAK (51.3 Runs Created, 3.7 Runs Saved = 55.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Would be a remarkably valuable player if he could just stay in the lineup. In 2010, it was injuries to his left pinkie – twice. Last full season? 2007.

Julio Borbon – TEX (46.5 Runs Created, 1.9 Runs Saved = 48.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Slap hitter, fast – but not a great basestealer or defensive wizard. I think he can step forward, though, and has to because when Josh Hamilton is forced into centerfield, he finds the DL.

Melky Cabrera, former Yankee and Brave who signed with the Royals in December, 2010, would rank here (45.3 Total Runs Productivity).

Mitch Maier – KC (47.4 Runs Created, -4.4 Runs Saved = 43.0 Total Runs Productivity)

A fourth outfielder masquerading as a regular because in Kansas City, they need warm bodies. Hits a little, fields some, tries hard. He won’t get 2500 career at bats, though. For 2011, the job will fall to either Melky Cabrera or Lorenzo Cain, a raw talent who arrived in the Zack Greinke trade. Cabrera is a really good fourth outfielder, while Cain might be a shade better than Cabrera these days.

Darnell McDonald – BOS (46.1 Runs Created, -5.1 Runs Saved = 41.0 Total Runs Productivity)

14 years ago, he was a first round choice of the Orioles and was rushed through the system before he was really ready because he just LOOKED like an athlete. Spent a decade as a AA/AAA guy before he was finally given a reasoanble opportunity for playing time. Of course, everyone in Boston’s outfield was injured at the time. He’s not an awful player, but he’s now 32 and probably wishes things had worked out differently.

Peter Bourjos – LAA (19.0 Runs Created, 12.4 Runs Saved = 31.4 Total Runs Productivity)

The new Devon White. Some power, tons of speed, swings at everything. If he can hit anything at all, will become a very valuable commodity. I think he can hit .250 hitting eighth or ninth in this lineup, which would be just fine.

Mike Cameron – BOS (20.7 Runs Created, 0.4 Runs Saved = 21.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Can still play – retaining a huge chunk of his skills as he approaches 40. Always liked him, but if it were me, I think I’d rather play Kalish in center.

Ryan Kalish – BOS (21.2 Runs Created, -.2 Runs Saved = 21.0 Total Runs Productivity)

You want to know how deep the Red Sox farm is? Ryan Kalish is a pretty good player. Great base runner, sneaky power, decent fielder. And, he has no place to play on this team. Still – he’s not far from being a solid fourth outfielder in Boston, and if necessary, wouldn’t be an awful option as a centerfielder for long stretches of time. Other teams would LOVE to have a Ryan Kalish in their system. Turns 23 in spring training.

Michael Brantley – CLE (31.4 Runs Created, -15.5 Runs Saved = 15.9 Total Runs Productivity)

In 100 career games now, he’s hit 3 – 33 – .264, with barely tolerable on base percentage skills, and his defensive skills haven’t yet impressed anyone at the major league level. Too good for AAA, he’s a fifth outfielder hoping to step it up. Stiil a kid – turns 24 in May – so there is room for growth.

Gregor Blanco – KC (24.9 Runs Created, -11.2 Runs Saved = 13.7 Total Runs Productivity)

A fifth outfielder who got too much playing time. Can contribute a little with the bat, but hasn’t been a consistently good fielder.

Grady Sizemore – CLE (11.0 Runs Created, -11.2 Runs Saved, = -0.2 Total Runs Productivity)

Hasn’t been the same since the personal photo shoot. Body has left him, skills haven’t been seen in a couple of years now. I’m not sure he’ll ever be back.

2010 AL Gold Glove and Dirty Brick Award Winners

Posted on February 1, 2011 by Paul Proia

My fielding ranking system is a method that looks at the number of plays made per 800 balls in play. In effect, if someone makes one play more than another person at the same position, he reduces the batting average of the hitter by a point. The best fielders occasionally make a run at 15 plays per 800 balls in play more than average, the worst can go 15 in the other direction. Then, I convert those plays made into runs saved (or not saved, if the number is negative) based on the types of hits allowed on balls hit toward that fielder. I also convert double plays and errors into runs based on Pete Palmer formulas found in the old Total Baseball encyclopedias.

Does it work? Actually – yes. It passes the eye ball test (Elvis Andrus, when you watch him, looks like an impressive fielder), and the system is comparable to other methodologies. I’ve used this for about ten years, when I was first trying to rate fielders to make player cards for the old Superstar Baseball board game.

I try to remove biases for groundball/flyball tendencies, and for lefty/righty balls in play. If there is one position where I am always concerned, it’s first base because much of that is based on the rest of the infield – so I essentially remove infield assists from the first baseman’s putout total. Even with that, there is usually a greater range between the best and worst fielders. However, after doing this for years, I have reached the conclusion that the reason for this has more to do with the fact that the worst fielders are, indeed, the least mobile athletes on the field and if you get someone at first base who is young and still fleet of foot, that person is going to make GOBS more plays than a big lumbering first baseman whose first move is to start heading to first to catch a throw on almost any ball hit to his right.

Mighty Casey generally doesn’t rank pitchers individually, but the best team in this regard was probably Cleveland. Cleveland pitchers had a positive ratio of double plays to errors (19/13, where the league pitchers participated in 180 DPs and made 181 errors) and also handled about 5 chances more than the average team per 800 balls in play. The worst was easily Detroit (17 DPs, 18 errors, 6.4 plays below average per 800 balls in play).

I also rank catchers differently, choosing to score them as a team. There are seven categories for which a team of catchers could be graded: ERA, Winning Percentage, SB%, Fielding Percentage on plays not including strikeouts, Mistakes per Game (passed balls, errors), Plays Made per Game (or Mobility), Other Assists per Game (not including Caught Stealing). The catchers get a point for each category in which they are above the league average, and lose a point if below league average. The highest score, theoretically, is seven and the lowest would be -7. Nobody was that good, nor that bad.

Catcher:

Toronto had the best rankings, being above average in six categories and dead even on Mobility. John Buck did the yeoman’s share of the work, but his backup Jose Molina was also exceptional against the run, tossing out 15 of 34 runners. That being said, I don’t think that John Buck is the best catcher in the AL, it’s Joe Mauer. But the rankings say that Toronto’s catchers held their own collectively.

Behind Toronto, the White Sox scored at positive four, failing only in mobility categories, and then a tie between Boston, Detroit, and Minnesota at positive three.

The worst catching was a toss up between three teams that all scored at -3: Seattle, Los Angeles, and Kansas City.

First Base:

For the first time in several years, the stats matched the reputation. Mark Teixeira earns the nod, saving his team nearly 32 runs with his range and ability to avoid errors and turn double plays. I was surprised at how good Ty Wigginton was, showing even better range, but then again – he’s an infielder moving over to first – and frequently those guys are used to straying as far as possible to get grounders where many first basemen will give up on balls to the right and let the second sacker get them while moving to first base.

I’m not totally certain that Teixeira would have won the award had Kendry Morales not gotten hurt. Morales, in just 51 games, had a slightly higher range and was on pace to save just as many runs as Big Tex. Two others who didn’t get 1000 innings at the position also scored well here – Kevin Youkilis and rookie Justin Smoak.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Mark Teixeira    1291.2    10.2    31.7
Ty Wigginton    787    12.5    18.7
Justin Smoak    807.2    10.3    17.5

The Dirty Brick goes to Cleveland’s Matt LaPorta, whose poor range didn’t help a season where his bat wasn’t very strong – negating half of the runs he created offensively. The other two shouldn’t be a surprise. Miguel Cabrera is looking less and less lean, and Mike Napoli is a catcher playing first.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Matt LaPorta    791.1    -13.5    -25.0
Miguel Cabrera    1285.1    -5.6    -19.9
Mike Napoli    586.1    -12.7    -19.2

Dishonorable mentions go out to Daric Barton, Justin Morneau (on pace to match LaPorta, but he missed half the season), and Paul Konerko…

Second Base:

Robinson Cano had an amazing year with the bat, and was equally strong with the glove. His range factor was nearly 11 plays per 800 balls in play more than average, and he made just 3 errors while turning 114 double plays. As such, he not only saved his team 26 runs just by eliminating hits, but he took more than seven more runs off the board by avoiding errors and helping with the DP – the most at his position by far. Orlando Hudson provided value for Minnesota, and KC’s Mike Aviles returned and made a positive contribution with the bat and glove, too. Regular leaders here, Ian Kinsler and Mark Ellis, fell back as both missed about 500 innings at the position due to injuries. Honorable mention to Sean Rodriguez at Tampa who nearly made the list in just a half season of innings, and to Gordon Beckham who switched over from third and was solid for the White Sox.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Robinson Cano    1393.1    10.9    33.3
Orlando Hudson    1067    7.4    16.3
Mike Aviles    765.2    14.8    15.8

The Dirty Brick goes to a position switch as well – Seattle’s Chone Figgins. He was a decided bust at second base, making 19 errors and making an adjusted 4.11 plays per nine – 11.9 plays fewer per 800 balls in play than the average second baseman. Seattle signed him as a third baseman, switched him over to let Jose Lopez play third. Thankfully, Lopez was fantastic over there – else it would have been a total loss… Brian Roberts, a regular to the brick list, was abhorrant in a shade under 500 innings, 20 plays worse than the average second sacker per 800 balls in play, and Aaron Hill took his struggles at the plate with him to the field. Dishonorable mentions to supposed glove man Chris Getz (-7 runs) and rookie Scott Sizemore (-11 runs in must 314 innings). So much for replacing Placido Polanco…

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Chone Figgins    1417    -11.9    -33.3
Brian Roberts    498.1    -19.5    -17.1
Aaron Hill    1188    -6.1    -14.5

Third Base:

As poorly as Chone Figgins played second base for Seattle, converted third baseman Jose Lopez was a decided success. His range was superior, and he didn’t disappoint in terms of errors or double plays. Evan Longoria remained in the 30 runs saved range – a remarkable player, really – and Adrian Beltre continued to field his position remarkably well. An honorable mention goes to the reluctantly converted Miguel Tejada, who had greater range than even Longoria, but played just 808 innings before being shipped out. Nick Punto played an out shy of 345 innings there without making an error…

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Jose Lopez    1252.2    13.3    36.9
Evan Longoria    1330.2    8.7    31.1
Adrian Beltre    1342.2    6.6    19.0

The dirty brick goes to a part-timer, Royals infielder Wilson Betemit, who must have had ball repellant on him, making barely 2.2 plays per nine and having a range about 17 plays worse than the average player per 800 balls in play. Another halftimer, Omar Vizquel got close to 600 unnecessary innings at third base for the White Sox – he’s an ancient shortstop who hadn’t played there for his entire career. You want to know why the White Sox lost the division – look right here. Of the regulars, Michael Young was, again, a lousy third baseman – but he did make improvement over last year. No wonder he volunteered to be a DH.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Wilson Betemit    455.1    -16.9    -18.4
Omar Vizquel    582.1    -19.4    -17.4
Michael Young    1370.1    -3.3    -10.3

Shortstop:

Nobody was more surprised to see this than I, but Alexei Ramirez had a remarkable year at shortstop, showing great range – as good as he ever played. He was one assist shy of 500 – a great season by any measurement. Cliff Pennington helped out the young A’s staff by making his share of plays, and Elvis Andrus remained among the best fielders of his time. Seattle’s Jack and Josh Wilson, if combined, saved Seattle more than 20 runs.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Alexei Ramirez    1376.2    12.8    32.1
Cliff Pennington   1304.2    12.0    26.9
Elvis Andrus    1291.1    10.3    26.0

At least the reigning gold glove winner didn’t finish last, but he did have the worst range amongst the regulars. This year, Marco Scutaro’s 18 errors and only contributing to 57 double plays made up for making slightly more plays than Derek Jeter, who had just 6 errors and 94 double plays. The 11 run swing gave the brick to Scutaro, who killed the Red Sox infield. He’ll need to be replaced soon if the Sox want to be competitive. Third place went to Jason Bartlett who no longer looks like the slick fielding shortstop he was before all the ankle injuries in 2009. Thankfully for the Rays, they have other options for 2011.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Marco Scutaro    1166    -13.2    -32.0
Derek Jeter    1303.2    -15.0    -27.4
Jason Bartlett    1104    -8.9    -16.4

Left Field:

A centerfielder playing left who also had his best offensive season heading into free agency, the gold glove goes to the perennially amazing Carl Crawford. Crawford was the only left fielder to save his team more than 10 runs, but only because the next closest guys played too few innings to save enough runs. Only three left fielders played 1000 innings there in 2010.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Carl Crawford    1260.1    4.2    13.1
Michael Saunders   647.2    6.3    9.6
Alex Gordon    486.1    7.6    9.0

One of those three was Dirty Brick winner Delmon Young, who abused left field until he cost the Twins 25 runs out there. At least he found his bat last year… Fred Lewis played a disinterested left field for Toronto, and Daniel Nava was the Boston representative of the list of bad outfielders who played between 200 and 500 innings in the AL.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Delmon Young    1277.2    -8.5    -25.0
Fred Lewis    726.1    -7.8    -13.2
Daniel Nava    380    -12.9    -10.4

Center Field:

The Angels are rightfully excited about the defensive capabilities of their new centerfielder, Peter Bourjos. The man can fly – reminding you of a young Gary Pettis. He can throw, too – ten assists in what amounts to a third of a season in the field. This allows Los Angeles to move Torii Hunter, who is now a slightly below average centerfielder to right (where he was really good), and makes room for another below average centerfielder, Vernon Wells, to move to left. As it was, there isn’t a whole lot of difference amongst the starting centerfielders, except for Bourjos, in terms of overall range.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Peter Bourjos    449.2    12.0    12.4
Adam Jones    1298.1    2.9    7.9
Alex Rios    1246.2    2.8    7.1

The Dirty Brick goes to a guy whose body and game are falling apart, and that’s Grady Sizemore. One hopes he can heal and start to put his career back in the right direction, but it’s probably going to have to be at a different position. Sadly, his replacement (Brantley) doesn’t look much better, and among those who played at least 1000 innings, Vernon Wells, who was healthier than in recent seasons, is still the worst of the lot (costing his team about 7.5 runs). Thankfully, he’s done as a centerfielder.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Grady Sizemore    269.2    -17.5    -11.2
Michael Brantley562.2    -6.9    -9.4
Gregor Blanco    347    -11.2    -8.4

Right Field:

For the second year in a row, Nelson Cruz was a remarkable outfielder, though he threw hardly anybody out from right. I was surprised to see how well Nick Swisher did, but that could be because opponents may allow more lefties to bat in the new Yankee Stadium. Honorable mention to Ben Zobrist, who has to play everywhere but looked solid enough in right. I wonder if there isn’t some form of statistical bias in Texas, though, as even Vlad Guerrero showed up as above average in his 118.2 innings there. Not WAY above average, but slightly.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Nelson Cruz    799.1    15.2    25.9
Nick Swisher    1102    6.1    14.5
Jason Repko    226    16.4    9.3

The Dirty Brick goes to the surprise hammer of the league – Jose Bautista, followed by a bunch of guys who are either ill-suited for the outfield, aging, our out of position (David DeJesus). The worst right fielder who played at least 1000 innings was Shin-Soo Choo, who barely edged out the immobile Nick Markakis and the aging J.D. Drew, and were all between -7.02 and -7.17 runs in the wrong direction.

Player        Innings    Range    Runs Saved
Jose Bautista    982.2    -6.8    -14.6
Carlos Quentin    897    -5.3    -13.6
Bobby Abreu    805.2    -3.4    -7.9

2010 Season Forecast: Toronto Blue Jays

Posted on April 3, 2010 by Paul Proia

Last Five Years:

2009: 75 – 87 (4th AL East)
2008: 86 – 76
2007: 83 – 79
2006: 87 – 75
2005: 80 – 82

Runs Scored: 798 (6th AL)
Runs Allowed: 771 (12th AL)

Having outscored their opponents by 27 runs, the Jays should have won about 84 games. This isn’t the first time that Toronto has won fewer games than one might expect based on their runs scored and allowed data. In 2008, they were ten games over .500 with essentially the same ratio of runs as the World Series bound Tampa Rays. In 2007, the Jays scored one fewer run than they allowed in road games, but lost 47 of 81 games. And that 2005 club finished under .500 despite outscoring their opponents by 70 runs. That’s four of five years that Roy Halliday thinks that he should have been on a contending team – only to fall by the wayside.

Who should be held responsible for this?

Season Recap:

Most teams had the Jays landing in fourth place in the prediction category, but most of us figured it would have been more like 85 wins.

The Jays got off to a GREAT start. It wasn’t long before Toronto, led by Halliday, Scott Richmond, and Ricky Romero, were running off and looking like they would be a force in the AL Beast. After sweeping the Chicago White Sox on May 18, Toronto hit a SLUMP – all CAPS because they lost nine straight, six to Boston and Baltimore. Rumors that Halliday was to be traded starting dominating the news – when it wasn’t some member of the rotation going down to injury – and I think the Jays got horribly distracted.

I know this – the team’s OBP every month was about .333 except July, when they must have started swinging at everything. The OBP in July was .298. So, even though the pitching staff was still getting the job done (a 3.81 ERA, best of the year), they couldn’t win, and it was July that put them out.

At this point, the Jays lost a lot – killing off the season as July started and finally bottoming out after reaching fifteen below .500 in early September. Halliday never got traded and, in fact, once the team figured out they had better just enjoy being a team the rest of the way, the team had a winning September when it didn’t matter.

Pitching:

Roy Halliday was marvelous – 17 – 10 with a 2.50 ERA and saving his club 47 runs more than average pitching would have provided. Ricky Romero finished with 13 wins and was about 8.5 runs better than average in 178 innings. Scott Richmond lost 11 of his last 15 decisions, costing his team 14.5 runs, and then hit the DL where he’ll likely miss most of 2010. Brian Tallett got 160 innings and his control got the best of him. Brett Cecil got 17 starts, had a winning record, but seemed very hittable (5.30 ERA, 17 homers and 116 hits in 93.1 innings).

On the other hand, Marc Rzepczynski proved a potential rotation player with 11 decent enough starts – and hopefully can build on that for 2010.

In the bullpen, a closer could not keep a job. B.J. Ryan wasn’t worthy – 6.53 ERA – and was shipped out. Scott Downs hung in there for a while with 9 saves and decent numbers (good control); Jason Frasor was even better and eventually earned the closer role for good.

No worries – for 2010, the pitching staff will look different with Halliday having been shipped to Philadelphia for a boatload of prospects.

First, Shaun Marcum returns from an injury forced exile to take over the front of the rotation. I like Marcum – he’s a fine pitcher, but he’s no Halliday. Romero returns, as does Rzepczynski and Tallett, with former Mariner Brandon Morrow joining the rotation to take the ball in the first inning every fifth turn.

Marcum has always been an above average pitcher – but not 40 runs above average. And Morrow has never been dependable as a starter. Even Tallett is a converted reliever – which means his arm hasn’t been abused, but he needs to find consistency this year.

The bullpen starts with Frasor, but adds Kevin Gregg from the Cubs. Scott Downs returns and will help. Jesse Carlson and Jeremy Accardo round out the top five. Gregg is inconsistent, too – but he’ll be a nice eighth inning option. There is more depth here than in, say Baltimore. I like Baltimore’s rotation better, though.

Looking forward, I see this unit performing about 50 runs worse than the 2009 rotation – mostly because Halliday won’t be there. That puts a lot of pressure on the bullpen, and the sixth and seventh guys. And THOSE aren’t the guys you want pitching important innings.

Catching:

Rod Barajas provided solid catching, but couldn’t get his batting average over .230. Still – he had 19 homers and 71 RBI. Essentially, the Blue Jays replaced him with the same guy – former Royal John Buck. Buck can get the same numbers at the plate but probably not behind it; Buck isn’t as good as Barajas against the run.

Infield:

Lyle Overbay didn’t seem as mobile with the glove, and with a falloff at the plate, he was a bit of a problem. Overbay ISN’T a bad first baseman. Usually he makes up for his lack of power with fantastic fielding. If he’s not going to be a gold glove winner, then his bat – still above average – looks pedestrian when compared to others. His backup, Kevin Millar, didn’t help at the plate or in the field.

Aaron Hill came back from concussion issues to give head injuries to the baseball, hitting 36 homers and another 37 doubles. Hill was nearly an MVP candidate.

Marco Scutaro was an amazing leadoff hitter, getting on base at a .383 clip and scoring 100 runs. Backup infielder John McDonald still fields well, but his hitting is pedestrian.

The Jays started with Scott Rolen, who hit .320 (who saw THAT?), but was traded to Cincinnati for Edwin Encarnacion – who didn’t. Rolen was traded because he was expensive, but at least he was producing.

For 2010, the infield still has Overbay and Hill, but the other side of the infield features Alex Gonzalez, who has little range and a fading bat. He WON’T generate 100 runs of offense, and he’ll be worse in the field than the below average Scutaro. Rolen, until the injuries, was know for being dependable – something Encarnacion is not – and he won’t ever hit like Rolen, either. I can’t see Hill repeating, Overbay may slide some more, and the other two will KILL the Blue Jays offense. Look for a 80 run decline offensively and a 20 run decline defensively.

Outfield:

Yes – Alex Rios was disappointing when considering his pay and his production. However, Rios is an above average fielder and hitter. He’s gone. Jose Bautista, who was nearly as productive and cheaper, will get the nod in right field. It’s no better than a wash going forward.

Vernon Wells remains in centerfield. He’s old, has had below average range for half a decade now, and will have hamstring problems until he’s 100. He’s no longer capable of 20 homers and doesn’t get on base much. He also has a contract nobody else wants.

In left, Adam Lind will be a DH (whew!) but Travis Snider needs to step forward. There’s a lot to like – he has power, but needs to make better contact. At least he’ll get to more fly balls than Lind. Randy Ruiz, a slugger, will also get some more at bats after hitting ten homers in 115 at bats last year. Like Lind, Ruiz is immobile in the field, too.

I don’t think Bautista is a long-term answer and if Wells go down (and he will), they’ll need to get Phillies prospect Michael Taylor to the big leagues.

Prospects:

First, you have the prospects that the Jays got in the Halliday trade. one, catcher Travis D’Arnaud, will make the club in a couple of years. Pitcher Kyle Drabek will be allowed to find his feet in AAA before moving up to the bigs later this year. And Michael Taylor isn’t listed on the 25 man roster, so he’ll get some time to prove his worth before getting the call.

Looking at AAA Las Vegas, you have to remember that to be a prospect, you have to hit about .330 – like Travis Snider. J.P. Arencibia would be a better power prospect if he hit .336, but he hit .236 instead. Other than Snider, who should be ready, nobody else is a prospect for the lineup. For the same reason, pitching prospects never look so good – so you want good control and an ERA under 4.00 and there just aren’t that many who fit that bill. Dirk Hayhurst might be close – but he starts 2010 on the 60-day DL after surgery on his right shoulder. Maybe he can come back in 2011.

At AA New Hampshire, Reidier Gonzalez showed control but not enough strikeouts in his 93 innings. Fabio Castro, a tiny lefty who has seven years with four franchises, looked okay but doesn’t have a strikeout pitch that he can depend on as he moves up and faces AAA hitting.

The best hitter at AA was Brian Dopirak, who hasn’t yet made it to the bigs but is starting to look like he might hit about .270 with some power if he gets there. Dopirak hit .308 with 19 homers in New Hampshire, then .330 with 8 homers in Las Vegas. With Overbay around, he won’t get a chance without someone getting hurt.

A+ Dunedin featured Darin Mastroianni, a speedy centerfielder who can steal bases (70 in Dunedin and New Hampshire last year) and finally started to look like a hitter last year. He needs to keep drawing more walks to look like a Brett Butler type, but he made progress on that last year, too – 76 in 131 games. Pitcher Bobby Bell had 112 Ks and just 22 walks in 96.1 innings, but the real ace might be reliever Tim Collins, a teenager last year, who had 99 Ks and 29 walks in just 64.2 innings. That’s CLOSER material, and I’d name him as the most exciting prospect on the farm.

The Lansing Lugnuts featured a few young arms with promise. Of them, I like Henderson Alvarez, who walked just 19 in 124.1 innings and led his team in Innings, ERA and wins.

Forecast:

Let the rebuilding begin. We’re talking about a team that is going to lose 100 runs of offense, probably, and another 80 runs defensively. Toronto will likely lose 95 games and possibly 100, costing Cito Gaston his sanity if not his job. The system says 65.5 wins, but I’m rounding down in this division.

Top AL Right Fielders

Posted on February 12, 2010 by Paul Proia

Shin-Soo Choo (CLE): Wonderful hitter – 20/20 guy with patience, and he happens to play a fine right field. I admit it – I knew very little about him but he’s the most productive right fielder in the AL. (128.5 Runs Created, 10.0 Runs Saved = 138.49 Total Run Production)

Ichiro Suzuki (SEA): Slaps 200 or more hits every year, still runs like the wind and has a cannon for an arm. If you count his days in Japan, Ichiro has a reasonably good chance to have more hits as a professional baseball player than anyone ever. (123.6 Runs Created, 3.1 Runs Saved = 126.72 Total Run Production)

Nelson Cruz (TEX): Remarkably good fielder, amazing power. Had a year that reminds you a bit of Brook Jacoby because he hit 33 homers with just 76 RBI (Jacoby in 1987 went 32 – 69). Part of that is because he hit 25 solo homers and his slugging percentage tailed off considerably with runners on base (.577 vs. .447).

So I checked. The Texas Ranger, as a team, hit 224 homers with 145 occuring with nobody on base and 79 driving home ducks. 75.8 of Cruz’s homers were solo shots. For everyone else on the team, it was 62.8%. Anyway – it might be a one-year thing… Until last year, he had 13 homers with men on base and just 9 solo homers.

The other thing is his fielding numbers, which are stunning. And then you see that he had nearly as many putouts in nearly 367 fewer innings than Nick Markakis. It’s legit. He got to a lot of fly balls. (80.9 Runs Created, 36.4 Runs Saved = 117.30 Total Run Production)

Bobby Abreu (LAA): Another year just like the rest, though with a little less power. Still drives in around 100 runs, still gets 30 stolen bases, still gets on base around 40% of the time, actually looked limber in right field. At what point do we wonder if Abreu is worthy of the Hall of Fame? (102.3 Runs Created, 2.5 Runs Saved = 104.87 Total Run Production.)

Jason Kubel (MIN): Not a horrible outfielder – but a legitimate hitter. He’s not the regular right fielder, but he can play it in a pinch. (98.1 Runs Created, -0.3 Runs Saved = 97.80 Total Run Production)

Nick Swisher (NYY): He may not throw many guys out, but he hits for a little power, gets on base, and can still cover ground. I know he struggled in the post-season, but Swisher kept the offense moving most of the year and the Yankees should be glad he’s still around. (94.6 Runs Created, 2.6 Runs Saved = 97.21 Total Run Production)

Ryan Sweeney (OAK): I need to watch more A’s games to see with my own eyes how good he is. Fast enough to cover centerfield. Seems to throw well enough, Gets on base a little but you’d like to see a little more power. Still – a productive player if his defense is really this good. (71.2 Runs Created, 23.9 Runs Saved = 95.18 Total Run Production)

J.D. Drew (BOS): The new George Brett. Can’t stay in the lineup for 150 games, but when he plays he hits. Still has a great eye at the plate, but his back is affecting his range in the field. I wouldn’t let him cover center anymore, that’s for sure. (89.9 Runs Created, -2.8 Runs Saved = 87.13 Total Run Production)

Alex Rios (TOR/CWS): Hit .199 after arriving in Chicago’s south side – and we hoped the change in scenery would help get him back to where he was a year or two ago. And yet, he’s not really a bad player. Some power, a lot of doubles, good speed, decent defensively. He just gets paid a lot for what seems like mediocrity. (73.9 Runs Created, 10.1 Runs Saved = 84.00 Total Run Production)

Michael Cuddyer (MIN): Good power, fair bat and eye, miserable defender. Based on the stats, maybe Kubel should play in right and Cuddyer become the DH… (100.7 Runs Created, -22.64 Runs Saved = 78.10 Total Run Production)

Nick Markakis (BAL): From what I can tell, he’s overrated. He doesn’t really hit for power – more doubles than homers, not that it’s a problem. He doesn’t have an exceptionally high batting average. He doesn’t run very well. He can throw, but he doesn’t get to many flies. On the other hand, he turns 27 at the end of this season, so he could be one of those guys who is ready to have his career year. If not this year, maybe next year. (101.8 Runs Created, -28.7 Runs Saved = 73.11 Total Run Production)

Jermaine Dye (CWS): Like Alex Rios, he struggled mightily down the stretch. I can still remember when the Royals acquired Dye from Atlanta and the fans were upset about losing Michael Tucker. Um… Which player still has a major league job? It’s a season showing signs of decline, but still productive. (75.4 Runs Created, -3 Runs Saved = 72.41 Total Run Production)

Magglio Ordonez (DET): He rescued a poor batting average after that lousy start, but he’s still just a miserable outfielder. If he doesn’t put 100 – 120 runs on the board offensively (and he’s still not half bad), his lack of range just kills you. Time to move on, wouldn’t you think? Maybe make him a DH? (75.3 Runs Created, -17.85 Runs Saved = 57.47 Total Run Production)

Willie Bloomquist (KC): Played a lot of different positions and that makes him Alfredo Amezega. He’s better than Jose Guillen, but that’s not much. (49.1 Runs Created, 3.8 Runs Saved = 52.97 Total Run Production)

Jose Bautista (TOR): Not really a right fielder, but he got some time here last season. He’s at least a slightly better than replacement level player. (50.4 Runs Created, .8 Runs Saved = 51.27 Total Run Production)

Two Gabes (TB): Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross split time in right field for Tampa and combined 14 – 68 – .235. Kapler was a slightly better hitter or fielder, but combined weren’t really enough.

Jose Guillen (KC): Now THAT was a good use of limited money. Can’t hit, can’t stay healthy, can’t field. Less production than EITHER Gabe… (30.9 Runs Created, -14.8 Runs Saved = 16.05 Total Run Production.)

Top AL Centerfielders in 2009

Posted on February 11, 2010 by Paul Proia

In case you were curious, Boston’s new outfielder, Mike Cameron, produced more total runs (offensively and defensively combined) than any other AL centerfielder in 2009. I would never have guessed this had I not run the numbers… I don’t think that this will hold when he gets to the AL East, but you never know. He could surprise us by staying young and avoiding curveballs.

Franklin Gutierrez (SEA): A key player in Seattle’s improvement… Mid-range power but has room to grow. Defensively was as good as advertised. His lone weakness would appear to be his lack of patience at the plate. Cleveland is going to miss this guy… (87.0 Runs Created, 14.4 Runs Saved = 101.34 Total Run Production)

Denard Span (MIN): A valuable leadoff hitter with decent range in the outfield – had a OBP near .400 and stole 23 bases. You gotta like that kind of production. Span is one of the biggest reasons that the Twins won the AL Central… (94.9 Runs Created, 4.2 Runs Saved = 99.15 Total Run Production)

Ryan Sweeney (OAK): Can play this position, but is probably destined to play in right… Would rank here if he was the starter.

Torii Hunter (LAA): Missed time with injuries, else would have ranked #1. By my count, this is the first time that he’s been better than average defensively in the last four seasons – and it could have been the time off. Hunter’s season was very good – average was up, OBP and SLG were up. However, that makes me think he might be due for a step back. Doesn’t make me less of a fan – just more of a realist. (87.4 Runs Created, 7.7 Runs Saved = 95.07 Total Run Production)

Curtis Granderson (DET): Heads to the Yankees in a period of decline. His batting average fell below .250, though he works for walks, hits for power, and steals bases. Still – he was below average defensively and has slipped each of the last two seasons following his breakout 2007 season. He’s a gas to watch play – I hope he finds his way back to greatness. (96.7 Runs Created, -3.8 Runs Saved = 92.89 Total Run Production)

If you are a Detroit fan, you are probably going to want to know more about your new center fielder, Austin Jackson. The Yankee prospect hit .300 and stole 24 bases at AAA Scranton last year. Jackson has little power and if he’s a burner, isn’t stealing 60 bases but occasionally hitting the 30 mark – and he doesn’t get thrown out a lot. He does, however, strike out a bit. I like Scott Sizemore more than this guy, but he might be okay. He’ll likely cover more ground than Granderson did – but I think he’ll be lucky to generate 80 runs of offense in 550 at bats without finding a way to get a few more extra base hits.

Adam Jones (BAL): A poor man’s Franklin Gutierrez. Great glove, medium range power, would like a higher batting average and OBP, can run the bases. (73.4 Runs Created, 16.44 Runs Saved = 89.79 Total Run Production)

Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS): In a year where he had awful defensive stats, he tied the record for outfield putouts in a game. Go figure. Led AL in steals with 70… Gets to play the Monster in 2010… Let’s say that Ellsbury will look better defensively and maintain his offensive production as a left fielder. Last year, Jason Bay was worth more than 130 runs of production. At BEST, Ellsbury will be worth 100. That’s a three game difference in the standings. (102.8 Runs Created, -16.5 Runs Saved = 86.28 Total Run Production)

Scott Podsednik (CWS): Now in Kansas City – and God Forbid the Sox actually put Juan Pierre here. Podsednik was pretty much an Ellsbury clone. Ellsbury’s numbers: .301/.415/.358 – Podsednik’s numbers: .304/.412/.354. Podsednik stole only 30 bases and got fewer total plate appearances – and plays in a slightly better park for hitters. Still – not much difference. Podsednik, however, made up for the offensive production with a solid year defensively. The Royals should be happy with Studriffic Podsednik – but even with that isn’t more than a one or two year option. (81.5 Runs Created, 4.7 Runs Saved = 86.24 Total Run Production)

Grady Sizemore (CLE): Tried to play the whole season, but eventually his body broke down and he needed surgery on just about every part of his body. Must have happened after the pictures were taken… Anyway… Sizemore bounced back a little with his range and despite the .248 batting average was able to generate offense because he works the count for walks and hits for some power. He was a poor man’s Curtis Granderson with a long DL trip. (75.3 Runs Created, 1.9 Runs Saved = 77.22 Total Run Production)

Alex Rios, if he played a full season in center, would probably rank about here. Cited by some as having one of the worst contracts in baseball, Rios turned one year in his youth into a multi-year mammoth contract. Forced to play right field because the Blue Jays insisted on playing Vernon Wells in center (wasting 20 runs a year defensively that their pitchers would like back) – Rios would have been a top flight defender with tolerable offense and, as such, would likely rank near the top of this list. He’s no longer a GREAT centerfielder – he’s probably league average – and there’s a chance that his bat will bounce back. At this point, however, he’s likely staying in right for the Sox and one hopes he doesn’t struggle to hit .200 as he did after arriving in Chicago.

Marlon Byrd (TEX): Look at your new center fielder, Chicago. For the first time ever, Byrd reached out and hit 20 homers. He might do that in Wrigley Field if the wind blows out – but more likely he’ll be around 12. He does hit a few doubles though. His OBP is league average (.334) and that won’t change next year. And, he’s miscast as a centerfielder. Granted – this is still better than having to put Kosuke Fukudome out there or even Sam Fuld, but if Marlon Byrd is a championship level player, I don’t see it. Jim Hendry, stop getting players from Texas. (85.5 Runs Created, -11.6 Runs Saved = 73.83 Total Run Production)

The new center fielder in Texas will be Julio Borbon, a burner out of the University of Tennessee who has been a consistent .310 hitter in the minors and even hit .312 in his two months with the Rangers. He can fly – he’s my early pick to lead the AL in stolen bases. Not sure if he’ll lead off, too. I DON’T expect him to have the defensive impact that Elvis Andrus had, but playing him there where he has a chance to be league average, as opposed to playing Hamilton or Byrd there will still help the team.

Rajai Davis (OAK): He ranks pretty low here, but give him 1300 innings in center and 600 at bats. Unless he gets a case of Jerome Walton disease, he’s going to help the cause a lot. Decent OBP and batting average but no power, covers enough ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s given the lead off spot, gets 180 – 200 hits, and scores 110 runs. (69.1 Runs Created, 2.4 Runs Saved = 71.58 Total Run Production)

B.J. Upton (TB): Coming out of the World Series, didn’t you think Upton was on the verge of becoming a superstar? It didn’t happen. Injuries sapped his power, his batting average, and his range in the outfield. He’s an electrifying player – but last year wasn’t his thing. (73.1 Runs Created, -2.2 Runs Saved = 70.92 Total Run Production)

Vernon Wells (TB): When I listed Alex Rios as having one of the worst contracts in baseball, it’s got NOTHING on the deal that Toronto gave Vernon Wells. Slipping with the bat, has been a problem with his poor range in center. The time has come to find a speedster to take over center field for the last remaining team in Canada. 15 – 66 – .260 isn’t going to cut it if you are costing your team more than 15 runs a season with the glove… And don’t let the total runs created number fool you. The average hitter generates 5 runs for every 27 outs made. Wells is around 4.7 (84.6 Runs Created, -16.8 Runs Saved = 67.83 Total Run Production)

Melky Cabrera (NYY): The job belongs to Granderson or Brett Gardner now. Your new Atlanta Brave centerfielder was your league average offensive player (13 – 68 – .274) with slightly below average range. Unless he has a significant step up left in his body, he’s not going to be a championship calibre player. He’s better than what Kansas City played out there, but that’s not saying very much. Gardner has better range than Cabrera (6.6 runs saved in fewer innings) – and if he can push his OBP up near .400, might be a better hitter, too. (71.5 Runs Created, -6.5 Runs Saved = 65.00 Total Run Production)

Carlos Gomez (MIN): Now in Minnesota, Gomez was an AMAZING defensive player, but can’t hit a lick. No average (.229), no power (3 homers, .337 SLG), no walks (.287 OBP), runs a little. If he hits .260 and gets his OBP closer to .340, the Brewers will get a steal. As such, they get a #8 hitter who makes all the pitchers look good. (31.1 Runs Created, 20.0 Runs Saved = 51.02 Total Run Production)

Mitch Maier (KC): Coco Crisp was mightily disappointing – injured a lot, didn’t hit when he did play, and wasn’t quite league average as a fielder. Crisp is destined four fourth outfielder status somewhere after this year… Mitch Maier played the most innings, was pretty good with the leather, and while he didn’t hit much, still produced more than 50 runs. He’ll be a fourth outfielder in KC and get innings that Podsednik misses.

Josh Hamilton (TEX): Suffered through a ton of shoulder and stomach and groin injuries – isn’t really a centerfielder to be fair and should be in right field. Struggled to produce at the pace he did in 2008 – in fact was slightly below average when all was said and done. Pulling for another comeback as a right fielder. (45.0 Runs Created, -3.8 Runs Saved = 41.22 Total Run Production)

NOTES: Having done this, none of the centerfielders had a breakout season the way the other positions had someone who was in the 130 runs produced level… It’ll be interesting to see if anyone can take a step up in 2010. My money is on Denard Span.

2009 AL Gold Glove and Brick Glove Winners

Posted on January 30, 2010 by Paul Proia

Last week, I gave you the NL Gold Glove and Brick Glove winners and losers… It’s time to do the same for their brethren in the AL. As a reminder, here’s how I do it:

1) Look at the number of plays made per every 800 balls in play, because it provides a level playing field and because, in effect, one extra play made is essentially removing one point of batting average from each hitter.

2) Make modifications for things like flyballs and ground balls allowed by pitching staffs.

3) Make modifications to middle infielders based on double plays.

4) Remove infield assists from first basemen’s putout numbers.

5) Convert plays made/not made into runs saved/lost based on values for each hit as determined by Pete Palmer – with hits assigned by position.

6) Determine additional benefits for runs saved based on double plays and errors.

7) Sort.

For the lists below, you’ll see two numbers for each player. Positive numbers are always better. The first number tells you how many plays he makes per 800 balls in play more or less than the average guy. Nelson Cruz made 14 plays every 800 balls in play more than the average right fielder. That’s a lot. Derek Jeter’s first number is about -9, which means he makes nine plays less than the average shortstop per 800 balls in play. The second number tells you how many runs that player saved his team (or cost his team, if the number is negative). So, the effect of Nelson Cruz making 14 extra catches for ever 800 balls in play (and not make errors, or contribute to double plays) was to save his team about 35 runs over the course of the season. Again, a negative number is bad – a player’s range or being error prone would cost his team that many runs.

Right Field:

14.0 34.5 Nelson Cruz (TEX)
11.9 17.0 Ryan Sweeney (OAK)

Cruz made a lot of plays – only Suzuki made more, but Ichiro played more than 250 additional innings and had just 24 more putouts. Like Jayson Werth, Cruz had more putouts than Texas center fielders – something that rarely happens. Sweeney was solid, but in only 600 innings. Shin-Soo Choo or Alex Rios were third by my reckoning… For years, Rios should have been in center and not Vernon Wells.

– 8.4 -28.7 Nick Markakis (BAL)
-10.4 -23.3 Michael Cuddyer (MIN)
-10.2 -17.8 Magglio Ordonez (DET)

Jack Cust just missed this list and he only played 400 atrociously lousy innings… Markakis gets raves for his arm, but if you don’t get to any flies, you aren’t helping the team. Ordonez is a regular to the brick glove list and should be a DH.

Center Field:

10.0 20.0 Carlos Gomez (MIN)
7.4 16.4 Adam Jones (BAL)
5.4 14.4 Franklin Gutierrez (SEA)

All the young legs. Milwaukee will appreciate how good Gomez is defensively (the pitchers will, anyway). I thought Gutierrez should have moved Sizemore to right in Cleveland and he proved me right.

-5.9 -16.8 Vernon Wells (TOR)
-5.9 -16.5 Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)
-7.4 -14.9 Marlon Byrd (TEX)

Vernon Wells has been a slow centerfielder for years – it’s about time to move him to left or right field. (Just listing his range numbers, 2006: -3.7, 2007: -5.1, 2008: -6.2, costing between 10 and 17 runs to his team each year.) Ellsbury was lousy despite setting the record for most putouts in a game. And pity the Cubs if they put Byrd in CF…

Left Field:

5.3 17.8 Jason Bay (BOS)
4.6 15.3 David DeJesus (KC)
4.2 12.5 Carl Crawford (TB)

Bay sure does get a bad reputation for his defense, but he wasn’t a problem last year. I think Boston will miss him. Unlike the NL, the AL has a few guys who can really play here and are truly left fielders.

-14.2 -15.3 Adam Lind (TOR)
– 4.7 -12.3 Johnny Damon (NYY)
– 4.6 -10.2 Delmon Young (MIN)

Adam Lind is a DH who is forced into left. Damon is 36 and is starting to show the effects of old and injured wheels. And Delmon Young has NEVER been a good fielder.

Shortstop:

14.1 30.8 Elvis Andrus (TEX)
7.6 15.7 Cesar Izturis (BAL)
3.5 11.1 Erick Aybar (LAA)

If anyone in their right mind really looks at this, there is NO WAY that Elvis Andrus should have been denied a gold glove. Okay – he makes a few too many errors. But he makes SO MANY plays. Compared to the worst fielding shortstop in the AL – the guy they gave the gold glove to – Elvis had 55 more putouts and 67 more assists in about 23 fewer innings. 122 additional plays.

-9.2 -14.2 Derek Jeter (NYY)

If you go by guys who played a lot of innings, Alexei Ramirez and Marco Scutaro (or Asdrubal Cabrera) would be second and third. However, I thought I would point out that even though Marco Scutaro is a step up from the 2009 position holders – he’s NOT going to make Boston’s defense airtight. Scutaro’s range is -5.0/-6.4. However, Julio Lugo’s 243 innings were brutal (-20.4 range, costing 12.3 runs) and Alex Gonzalez was a step up from abysmal to just bad (-10.9 range, costing them 5.6 runs). Jason Bartlett’s ankle injury was serious – he went from a gold glover to a problem.

Third Base:

9.3 31.9 Evan Longoria (TB)
14.0 28.6 Adrian Beltre (SEA)
8.6 21.7 Melvin Mora (BAL)

Chone Figgins is above average, but defensively is about twenty runs worse than having Beltre out there. I stand by what I wrote before – it’s not an improvement to have Figgins in Seattle, though the backups will play less. Longoria is the real deal.

-16.9 -39.0 Michael Young (TEX)
-17.0 -12.9 Ty Wigginton (BAL)

Michael Young must have been watching Elvis get all the grounders, too. This just proves that because you once were a decent enough (not great, though) shortstop you can’t just try playing third base and become good at it. It’s taken YEARS for Alex Rodriguez to go from a lousy third baseman to one who is just a little below average.

Second Base:

7.9 23.3 Placido Polanco (DET)
5.9 18.8 Aaron Hill (TOR)
6.1 16.4 Robinson Cano (NYY)

And Detroit didn’t want Polanco anymore? He remains very, very good at second base. Philadelphia hopes he can still play third but I have my doubts that he’ll be GREAT the way he is great here. Cano has improved every year. Ian Kinsler just missed this list – he’s regularly awesome.

-11.0 -31.2 Brian Roberts (BAL)
– 6.5 -19.9 Alberto Callaspo (KC)

That Mora and Izturis were solid makes me think that there could be a statistical bias here, but Roberts’ numbers, even with help, are still plain old bad. By the way – this isn’t news. He’s been below average three of the last four years.

2006: -4.8 -10.4
2007: 1.2 5.2
2008: -4.3 -12.6
2009: -11.0 -31.2

That’s a pretty big dip, which is part aging and probably part batters hitting in a different direction last year.

First Base:

14.3 37.8 Kendry Morales (LAA)
12.1 24.4 Russell Branyan (SEA)
8.2 15.1 Chris Davis (TEX)

Mark Teixeira, for the first time in a while, just missed making this list. He’s usually in the middle. I had no idea Morales was that good (or, for that matter, anyone on this list), but I will be watching to see if he remains this good going forward.

-33.5 -28.0 Victor Martinez (CLE)
– 9.6 -20.5 Justin Morneau (MIN)
-14.3 -17.3 Hank Blalock (TEX)

If you count his time in Boston, Martinez cost his teams more than 35 runs – he’s a catcher and can’t really play the position. Morneau’s injury wasn’t just killing his bat – he was less and less mobile as the year went on.

Rios Waived by Blue Jays – Let White Sox Pick Up Tab; More Cub Injury Woes…

Posted on August 11, 2009 by Paul Proia

I’m not sure I buy this, but okay. The Toronto Blue Jays were disappointed by Alex Rios’ production on the heels of a huge contract signing in 2008 – and placed him on waivers. The White Sox put in a claim… So, the Blue Jays could either (a) recall Rios and make a trade offer or just keep him, or (b) let the White Sox keep him and absorb his salary. The Jays chose (b). Sure it’s a cash savings, but do they really have a replacement for him? Rios was the best centerfielder on the team – but they insisted on playing the older (and slower, and more injury prone) Vernon Wells out there. And, the Jays get NOTHING. No prospects, no short term help. A year ago, this team should have been in the playoffs. Now, Roy Halliday was placed on the trading block, A.J. Burnett left as a free agent, B.J. Ryan wasn’t allowed to work through his issues, and Alex Rios is gone.

For the White Sox, who haven’t really had a solid centerfielder all season, they get an immediate upgrade defensively and offensively (albeit for about $60 million over the next six seasons) and if Rios puts it together, they could have an impact player between elder statesman Jermaine Dye and the injured but exciting Carlos Quentin. And all they had to do was claim a guy off of waivers?

Should I be worried that this is just a precedent and other teams wishing to dump salary will no longer trade for prospects but just drop the player and keep the cash? Look out Texas, San Diego, and others. If you don’t win, your players may not get traded – they may just get dumped.

Two Cubs horses are making doctor visits… Carlos Zambrano had an epidural treatment to relieve pain in his back – sources saying its the third time (at least) that this has happened this season. And now comes word that Aramis Ramirez’s left shoulder is ailing again and needs a doctor visit – the same shoulder he separated diving for a liner earlier in the season causing him to miss two months of the season. [MLB/ESPN]

And it doesn’t get any better. The same night the Cubs were clocked by the Rockies (and Troy Tulowitski’s seven RBI, five hit – cycle even – game last night), starter Tom Gorzelanny was hit by a grounder in the second inning and had to leave the game. He should make his (well, Zambrano’s) next start. [MLB]

Two years ago, he was the toast of the 2007 rookie crop. Last year, he signed a five year extension. In 2009, with a batting average hovering around .180 with little power and no confidence, Diamondback centerfielder Chris Young heads to AAA to find his swagger. Gerrardo Parra will likely get the bulk of the playing time in center for Arizona. [FoxSports]

The Phillies are going to tempt fate, move Jamie Moyer to the bullpen, and give a start Wednesday to Pedro Martinez. For a couple of innings this might be fun. After that, who knows… Personally, I don’t want to see Pedro lose his 100th decision. [FoxSports]

Dodger second sacker Orlando Hudson strained a groin when he had to quickly change directions on a deflected grounder Monday night and will likely miss at least Tuesday’s game while he heals. So, he’s day-to-day until we hear otherwise… [MLB]

Chad Billingsley’s hamstring will keep the Dodger ace from making his start this week, and if he can’t go next Monday will head to the DL. [SI]

Another player leaving early with an injury is Reds starter Johnny Cueto, who will have his left hip flexor examined. Cueto was running to first on a grounder when he limped and quit running about 45 feet down the line. The Reds hurler has been off his game for a month, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a DL stint to rest up and comes back in September. [MLB]

The Cards got some bad news – Todd Wellemeyer’s elbow was sore following a bullpen session and may miss his next start. [SI]

And, two other pitchers may get moved soon – both Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang have cleared waivers, according to FoxSports. Any takers out there? I mean, a two month loan for a couple of guys who might be motivated to finish strong… Milwaukee? Houston? Los Angeles? Chicago?

Welcome Back! Jared Burton (Reds), Chad Durbin (Phils) return from the DL. Arizona signed Daniel Cabrera to a minor league deal. I used to love watching Cabrera – big fastball and no idea what he was doing out there. Maybe he’ll figure it out here – but I doubt it. I’ll still watch.

Hurry Back! Rodrigo Lopez got lit up by the Marlins, so the Phillies sent Lopez to AAA.

Might Be Yankees Year; Giambi and Padilla join Smoltz on Released and Designated for Assignment List

Posted on August 8, 2009 by Paul Proia

I struggled to stay up to watch the Yankees-Red Sox fifteen inning masterpiece – a great game, really, with loads of amazing pitching and the best stained player of his generation hitting a game-winning homer in the 15th inning to win it. You had Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett, former teammates in Florida, dueling it out before handing it to the bullpen. And it was the bullpen of the Sox – heck, the pitching of the Sox, once touted for its depth and skill and now looking frazzled and weak – that finally caved. The one time weakness, the Yankees bullpen, pitched nearly eight innings of beautiful baseball. It’s certainly not over. Ali looked like he would finish Frazier in 4 rounds in Manilla, if you remember, but Frazier gamely came back for more. A war of this size cannot be won in a single series. But the Yankees look like the best team in the AL East, and Tampa might be #2. And the difference is depth – depth in offense and pitching, which the Yankees have now, and the Sox do not.

Speaking of the Red Sox pitching… What to do with John Smoltz, he of the 8-plus ERA? He’s been designated for assignment. The Sox have ten days to trade or release him, and then Smoltz will have to figure out what he wants to do. Should he head to the minors and work through it? Should he take another offer? Should he ride off in his golf cart into the sunset? If so, he’ll have plenty of people to golf with – now that Maddux and Glavine also have free time. The PGA Champions Tour will have to look out. Smoltz is coming soon. [MLB, SI, ESPN, FoxSports]

Just as the Cubs started rolling after the All-Star break, another pitcher stumbles. This time, it’s Carlos Zambrano who was scratched from his start with a stiff lower back. [SI]

And, the Dodgers don’t need this – Chad Billingsley tweaked his hamstring running the bases after hitting a single in the sixth inning. Billingsley tried to pitch at the start of the seventh, but one warmup pitch later, he was done. He’s start to start, but a DL stint wouldn’t be surprising. [MLB]

Seattle’s Erik Bedard has fraying in his sore throwing shoulder – and will likely miss this season and if another MRI shows more damage, could require surgery. [SI]

The Minnesota Twins could use some starting pitching, and Cleveland – who had given up on 2009 – gave them Carl Pavano. Pavano will actually start Saturday for the Twins. Cleveland put Pavano on the waiver wire, the Twins pegged him, so the two clubs worked out a deal. Cleveland will get a player to be named later. [MLB]

Baltimore also got a player to be named later when they agreed to trade catcher Greg Zaun to Tampa. Chad Moeller was recalled from AAA to back up Matt Wieters. [SI]

Most teams are looking for help. Here are two teams that are moving in the other direction. Texas designated Vincente Padilla for assignment. Padilla hasn’t been in the good graces of Rangers management – and now management has ten days to trade, release, or send Padilla to the minors. And, Oakland released Jason Giambi. The 38-year-old slugger has been fighting a quad injury that has him on the DL – and now he’s got time to find a new job. If he’s healthy, he might be able to help someone off the bench for six weeks – so somebody might take a flyer on him. [SI]

Alex Rios was considered a franchise type player by Toronto. Now, he’s been put on the waiver wire and according to sources, some team put in a claim. Toronto can let him go (the new team takes on the rest of his $60 million in salary), or pull him back and make a trade offer. [FoxSports]

Welcome Back! Geovany Soto (Cubs), Darin Erstad (Astros), Rich Aurilia (Giants) all returned from the DL. Chris Woodward had been released by Seattle – Boston needs a shortstop badly, so they signed him up…

Hurry Back! Astro reliever Doug Brocail heads to the DL with a strained right shoulder. The Dodgers got two starts out of Jason Schmidt before he headed back to the DL with a strained shoulder. Now THAT was a good investment of $47 million…

Welcome to the Majors! Julio Borbon was called up by Texas. He’s hit over .300 the last couple of years heading through the minors, but in cities that make people look like hitters. He’s got some speed and won’t turn down a walk, but isn’t likely to get one because he makes so much contact. He’s probably no better or worse than Willy Taveras (though he won’t run as often), but he is certainly younger and cheaper…

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