Dunn isn’t Done – Sets Homer Record

Posted on April 7, 2012 by Paul Proia

The last round of opening day games featured a couple of interesting games (Go Rays! Weaver deals for Halos, Cards pound Brewers) and another new record. Adam Dunn – coming off of an absolutely miserable season – launched a homer on opening day. It’s the eighth time he’s done that, tying Ken Griffey, Jr. and Frank Robinson for most homers on Opening Day in baseball history.

Okay – I admit that I watched a little of the Masters yesterday, but anyone who watched it must have felt that only Tiger Woods and the two guys he was playing with were the only ones even playing in the tournament. That’s when I switched over to watch the Rays make that comeback and beat Mariano Rivera and the Yankees. It seemed like the last day of the 2011 season all over again.

Visa Issues Halt Villalona

Giants Prospect Angel Villalona, a kid who has spent more time in the legal system than in the Giant’s system, was placed on the restricted list as Villalona hasn’t been able to resolve issues obtaining a work visa.

You may remember Villalona – he was a big kid signed at 16 out of the Dominican Republic who, in the off-season in 2009, got entangled in a bar fight that wound up with someone getting shot. Villalona was jailed for two months before the family of the victim accepted a settlement and dropped the charges. [MLB]

Aches and Pains…

The Cardinals placed pitcher Scott Linebrink on the 15-day DL with what was listed as “right shoulder capsulitis”. To cover the roster spot, St. Louis recalled Victor Marte, a former KC Royals pitcher, who had a nice spring but hasn’t really shown to be a top prospect yet.

With Kyle Farnsworth‘s trip to the DL official, the Rays called up reliever Josh Lueke. Lueke has a world of talent and a rap sheet that has made him expendable to the teams that have had him before (Texas, Seattle). The Mariners used Lueke to get catcher John Jaso from Tampa.

Houston infielder Jed Lowrie sprained his thumb at the end of spring, leading to the recall of Brian Bixler. Bixler has had MLB time before and I wouldn’t bet money that he’s on the roster in June. He can play most infield positions though, he just hasn’t hit much. I’ll have to check to see if he’s gotten a Topps baseball card yet…

Finally, the Mets recalled outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis to fill the roster spot vacated by the injured Andres Torres. Nieuwenhuis has shown some power in the minors – hits a lot of doubles and a few homers – and some speed, too. The Mets like his hustle.

Happy Birthday!

Those celebrating with cards, cake, and remembrances include:

(1873) John McGraw, HOF Manager and great third baseman
(1874) John Ganzel
(1884) Jake Daubert
(1918) Bobby Doerr, Red Sox HOF Infielder
(1942) Tom Phoebus
(1979) Adrian Beltre

Tom Phoebus came up with the Orioles and threw shutouts in his first two major league starts. Instead of spending a year in long relief (maybe this was what taught Earl Weaver this lesson), Phoebus was immediately put into the rotation where he was pretty good for two seasons, even tossing 240 innings in 1968. However, something changed in 1969, his third season as a rotation anchor, and he lost his ability to strike people out. His career degenerated pretty quickly after that. I remember him having a brief stay in Chicago in 1972, right before his career ended.

I am reading the book 1921 – local SABR member Lyle Spatz is one of the authors – and it’s the story of the year the Yankees and Giants were on top of the baseball world, right on the heels of the Black Sox scandal. The new world Yankees featured Babe Ruth, while the Giants were old school led by McGraw. The book does a good job contrasting the two teams and showing how the future was going toward the Yankees.

After reading this, though, you find that McGraw is one of those angry gruff guys with a decent heart. Hard to like – really hard sometimes, but easy to appreciate.

Of Appendectomies and Aces: Dunn, Jimenez Out

Posted on April 7, 2011 by Paul Proia

Adam Dunn became the second slugger to go under the knife to remove an appendix – Dunn’s was an emergency operation on Tuesday night. He told manager Ozzie Guillen he’d be ready to play on Thursday, but realistically he (like Matt Holliday) will be out a week to ten days. Both players are hoping to avoid DL stints.

The Colorado Rockies placed Ubaldo Jimenez on the DL, as feared, because of a cuticle tear on the inside of his thumb. Jimenez, because of his long fingers, actually tucks the thumb under the ball, so as he throws it, it rolls off the top of his thumb and causes the tear. This isn’t the first time he’s had it, but in this case he adjusted his arm action to avoid the pain, losing six miles per hour on the fast ball and leaving him with a slightly sore forearm. [ESPN/Denver Post]

In his place, the Rockies will start Greg Reynolds, a 25-year-old who was the second overall pick of the 2006 draft and a Stanford grad. The 6′ 8″ Reynolds was rushed to the majors in 2008 – as George Frazier said in a 2008 broadcast, “out of necessity” – where he was hit around some. In 2009, he missed most of the season dealing with elbow and shoulder injuries, but came back some in Tulsa last year and had a good spring this year. He throws a low 90s fastball that, when last in the majors, ran up and in on right handers, a change up, a curveball, and a sinker that gets him ground balls. Reynolds is NOT a big strikeout guy, but if he’s going to make it, he has to have a couple of good starts here.

Other Injury News…

The Cubs placed both Andrew Cashner and Randy Wells on the DL. Cashner left Tuesday’s start with a strain in the back of his rotator cuff, while Wells felt a strain in his forearm. Both will be shut down for two weeks before beginning rehab. [Fox Sports]

Brian Wilson returns to the Giants, his strained oblique feeling better, while reliever Santiago Casilla heads to the DL with inflammation in his elbow. [MLB]

Oakland reliever Michael Wuertz says his hamstring huertz, so he’s headed to the DL…

More Streaking…

Texas moved to 6 – 0, and the Reds won again, their fifth straight to open the season. Meanwhile, Boston, Tampa, and Houston all lost again. According to Sports Illustrated, you can pretty much write those teams off. Cliff Corcoran writes that only two teams have ever started 0 – 5 and made the playoffs. [SI]

40 Years Ago in The Sporting News

The Cubs were giving shots to a pair of brothers who were hoping to make it after long stints in the minors, Danny and Hal Breeden. Neither worked out…

Happy Birthday!!!

Those celebrating with cake, cards, or remembrances include…

John McGraw (1874)
Jake Daubert (1884)
Bobby Doerr (1918)
Brett Tomko (1973)
Adrian Beltre (1979)

2011 Season Forecast: Chicago White Sox

Posted on March 6, 2011 by Paul Proia

Last Five Seasons:

2010: 88 – 74
2009: 79 – 83
2008: 89 – 74
2007: 72 – 90
2006: 90 – 72

The White Sox have been competitive for much of the last six or seven years, 2007 notwithstanding.

Runs Scored: 752 (7th in the AL)
Runs Allowed: 704 ( 8th in the AL)

With this combination, the White Sox would be expected to win 86 games or so – right about where they finished.

Season Recap:

At the beginning of the season, many expected the White Sox to contend with the Twins for the AL Central crown, and they contended until the last few days of the season.

The Sox actually got off to kind of a slow start, having losing records in April and May. At one point, the Sox were eight games under .500 and threatening to finish in last place at 24 – 33 after a loss to Detroit. However, the Sox got SCORCHING HOT, winning eleven in a row and fifteen of sixteen to sprint back into the race. (Of course, they played the Cubs, Pirates, Nationals, and Braves for that stretch, losing only a 1 – 0 game to Ted Lilly and the Cubs which likely saved Lou Piniella’s job.) Another nine game winning streak got the Sox to 50 – 39, at which point people started to think playoffs.

Once they had to face teams in their division, however, the Sox fell back. Only one more hot streak – a seven game winning streak in the beginning of September – kept them alive. Then, facing the Twins and Tigers, the Sox lost eight in a row (the last two to Oakland), and they were done. The Twins beat the Sox 13 times, the difference between first and second place.

During the season, the Sox acquired two players, trading Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg to Arizona for Edwin Jackson and claiming Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers after he had been waived. Neither player figured heavily in the team’s fortunes down the stretch. Jackson pitched reasonably well in his eleven starts; Manny – not so much, but only batted 69 times.
Starters:

The Sox have a LOT of quality starting pitching. John Danks was fantastic – 213 innings and saving his team 24 runs over that span. Mark Buehrle did what he always does, throws strikes, eats innings, and wins games. Gavin Floyd was saddled with a losing record but, like Buehrle is an above average pitcher with a record of durability. Jake Peavy was expected to be the ace, but he suffered a significant tear in a muscle behind his throwing shoulder and hopes to be back for much of the 2011 season after having an experimental surgery to repair it. Last year’s #5, Freddy Garcia, was surprisingly effective in 28 starts but won’t be back because Edwin Jackson is about the best fifth starter you can possibly imagine. 37 wins in the last three years, a no-hitter last year, and a power arm. It’s hard to find a better overall rotation outside of Philadelphia anywhere.

Relievers:

Bobby Jenks and his 4.44 ERA is no longer the closer, having moved on to Boston. And, J.J. Putz, the former set up man, is a closer in Arizona. Don’t worry about the Pale Hose, though, because the rest of the bullpen is as good as the rotation. Chris Sale was impressive in 23.1 innings, striking out 32 batters and allowing just 15 hits – and becomes the new closer. His late season dominance allowed Jenks, who was losing his effectiveness, to leave town. Scott Thornton has been a solid reliever for a couple of years now and becomes the lock down set up man. Sergio Santos was effective, Jesse Crain and Will Ohman have been imported to provide middle inning support options, and Tony Pena can do the job as a swing man or long reliever.

Catching:

The Sox have a decent tandem in A.J. Pierzynski and Ramon Castro. Pierzynski is starting to show signs of age, but is still reasonably effective. Castro is a good enough hitter to warrant more playing time if needed. As a defensive unit, the two were above average in five categories (ERA, Winning Percentage, Caught Stealing, Mistakes per Game, and Fielding Percentage on plays other than strikeouts), and below average only in mobility categories.

Infield:

Both offensively and defensively, you had two positions working in the Sox favor, and two working the other way. Paul Konerko remains a sturdy bat in the middle of the lineup, but defensively he and his 2010 backup, Mark Kotsay, are well below average. At second base, Gordon Beckham, you had the opposite. Beckham has decent enough defensive skills, but didn’t hold his own with the bat in 2010, unlike what he suggested was possible in 2009. At short, Alexei Ramirez was solid offensively despite a rather low OBP because he hit for power and had a reasonably good batting average. And, defensively, he played at a gold glove level. Then you have the hole at third, where Mark Teahan had an off year and couldn’t stay healthy either – costing the team runs with the glove and bat. The person who played the most at third was the elder statesman, Omar Vizquel, who looked very out of place defensively and hit like Paul Bako with even less power.

Arriving to help the cause is Brent Morel, a third round pick in 2008 out of Cal Poly, who has shown a plus bat and some power. In AA and AAA, he hit 10 – 60 – .322 and earned a 21 game tryout with the Sox in September. If Morel can hold his own at the position and hit .280 with a dozen homers, this would be a significant step up for the Sox over what played there in 2010.

Outfield:

Alex Rios came over from Toronto, played center extremely well, and put a lot of runs on the board – his best season since signing that huge contract a few years ago. Juan Pierre remains the left fielder – though Mighty Casey can’t explain it. For a guy who is supposed to be fast, he’s NOT a plus range fielder, and unless he’s hitting .320, he’s a waste of at bats. In right, Carlos Quentin was so bad defensively that he offset whatever benefits having Rios and Pierre in center and left may have provided. His power is still around, but he misses a lot games (much less pitches). I think the Sox will miss Andruw Jones, who can’t really cover any ground but hit 19 homers in essentially a half season of at bats. Alejando De Aza is the new fourth outfielder, a guy I used to root for in Florida, and is running out of chances to stick. He can play a little.

DH:

Last year, there was a rotation of hitters, none who will be anywhere as good as the newly signed free agent, Adam Dunn. Dunn is an offensive force, and gives the team depth at left or first base, too. (He can’t field them, but he can certainly hit enough so that you won’t notice too much.)

Down on the Farm:

Brett Morel we covered… Behind him on the AAA depth chart is 3B-1B candidate Dayan Viciedo, a 22-year-old Cuban kid with serious power and upside and didn’t disappoint when given a shot with the parent club in 2010. If Paul Konerko starts to get old, Viciedo could step in and be a quality first baseman for more than a decade. Pitcher Daniel Hudson looked to be close to ready, but was sent to Arizona for Edwin Jackson at the trade deadline. Hudson looked like he could be as good as Jackson, but Arizona is rebuilding while the White Sox are merely retooling.

At AA Birmingham, first baseman Jimmy Gallagher had a season that looks like something on the back of Mark Grace’s baseball card, but may not have a future here unless it’s as a pinch hitter. The pitcher who stands out, to me anyway, is reliever Deunte Heath, who fanned 84 in 57.2 innings, but may have issues harnessing his control. Anthony Carter also had a decent season in relief.

A guy who seems to have the team’s eye is Gregory Infante, who converted from a starter to a reliever and blew through A+ Winston-Salem and then Birmingham. 69Ks in 60 innings, didn’t allow a single homer (just 12 in 291 minor league innings), and for a really young kid out of Caracas, Venezuela, he may get a shot at closing in AAA. A guy you may read about in 2011 could be Justin Greene, a centerfielder with speed and power who also blew through A+ and landed at AA. Dylan Axelrod had a 1.99 ERA in Winston-Salem, earning a promotion to AA, and things are finally starting to click for him. Working against him is the fact that he’s a late round pick originally drafted by San Diego, and the Sox having a lot of starters at the big league level who aren’t going away anytime soon.

2011 Forecast:

I’m feeling a bit optimistic about the Sox, mostly because Dunn and Morel could quickly address the two biggest weaknesses they have. You have the potential regression of Pierzinski, Konerko, Pierre, Rios, and Quentin, weighed against the potential of gaining 80 or more offensive runs with Morel and Dunn. The pitching staff will be equally solid and could be marginally better – and would be really good if there weren’t two holes on the same side of the field (Konerko, Quentin). Still – a full season of Morel at third should help the overall defense, too. I like getting Jenks out of the closer role, and the Sox pen is still very, very good. I like the White Sox scoring 825 runs and allowing barely 700, which puts the sox at 95 wins. I also think the Sox could win the World Series, another shot across the bow at Cub fans who continue to wait for a miracle that won’t arrive until they figure out how to manage resources.

Working against the Sox is the idea that Jake Peavy’s shoulder may explode at any moment, and Ozzie Guillen imploding after another irrational outburst at his general manager, who has assembled quite the roster. Ozzie – sit back and enjoy the ride to the playoffs.

2010 – Top AL Designated Hitters

Posted on February 27, 2011 by Paul Proia

Chicago White Sox – Shared amongst several players, will be using Adam Dunn in 2011 (109.2 Runs Created). I’m guessing he’ll do just fine.

Vladimir Guerrero – TEX (98.7 Runs Created)

29 – 115 – .300, but seemed to slow as the season wore on. Didn’t get resigned, so he’s now getting a shot with Baltimore. He’ll be okay, but a notch below his 2010 production.

David Ortiz – BOS (98.4 Runs Created)

One day, the slow start will be a slow season. For now, he remains a very productive hitter.

Hideki Matsui – LAA (86.2 Runs Created)

Still a potent bat, with fair power and a discerning eye at the plate. Now the DH in Oakland, which seemed like a good idea at the time. Will be 37 in June, and his stats won’t look as good in Oakland, which may hasten his decline.

Luke Scott – BAL (84.7 Runs Created)

Can play the corner outfield positions (though not well) and first base in a pinch.

Jim Thome – MIN (73,0 Runs Created)

Shared role with Jason Kubel in a platoon role, though after Justin Morneau went down, Kubel played more in the field, too. Can still tattoo a fastball to the opposite field, and is the complete professional hitter. Approaching 600 homers with no sign of slowing down. Of course, the 40s aren’t always friendly to batters.

Travis Hafner – CLE (69.3 Runs Created)

Platooned, which is why his totals are less than the rest – but he’s platooned for a reason.

Johnny Damon or Magglio Ordonez – DET (79.7 and 58.9 Runs Created, respectively)

Damon got most of the licks here in 2010, but Ordonez may get the bulk of them in 2011.

Jack Cust – OAK (62.7 Runs Created)

Hits for power, draws a few walks, swings through a lot of strikes. Now gets to play full time in Seattle, where he may get more playing time. I wouldn’t be suprised at 25 – 95 in 2011.

Jose Guillen – KC (53.9 Runs Created)

Guillen shared it with a few others – look for Billy Butler or Kila (Mt.) Ka’aihue to get the bulk of the at bats next year.

The Yankees shared the role amongst a number of players, including Jorge Posada, Marcus Thames, and any of their aging stars needing a day or three off while keeping a bat in the lineup. Thames was very productive, and the other hitters are all pretty good.

The Mariners shared the role amongst a few players, including Mike Sweeney, Ken Griffey, Milton Bradley and Russell Branyan. None of that really worked out well, so Jack Cust has been imported for 2011.

The Rays shared the role with a variety of fourth outfielders and extra infielders – sometimes to good effect. For 2011, Manny Ramirez and/or Johnny Damon (mostly Manny) will get the at bats. Manny can’t stay healthy, he has an insanity streak, but can still hit really, really well. We’ll see if he’s got one more good year left in the tank, or if he gets bored. Or just old.

2010 Top AL First Basemen

Posted on February 7, 2011 by Paul Proia

Mark Teixeira – NYY (97.7 Runs Created, 31.7 Runs Saved = 129.4 Total Runs Productivity)

His batting average never recovered from a miserable .136 April but he continued to show power (69 extra base hits) and kept reaching base. Additionally, he had one of those years where his defensive stats were outstanding – nobody fluctuates more than Teixeira for some reason, but he’s been in a lot of different stadiums over the last few years. I’m not sure that I’d take him over Cabrera or even Butler for 2011, but he’s been the new Rafael Palmeiro in terms of hitting consistency. Will pass 300 homers this year assuming he staus healthy (never less than 30 since 2003) and probably 1000 RBIs, too (seven straight over 100 RBI). Turns 31 just after Opening Day, so he’s got at least five or six good years left, wouldn’t you think?

Miguel Cabrera – DET (147.0 Runs Created, – 19.9 Runs Saved = 127.1 Total Runs Productivity)

The most feared hitter in the AL right now – power, batting average, decent enough eye. He’s starting to look thicker like Manny Ramirez, who is the the person Cabrera reminds me of the most. Per game, Youkilis is more productive, but Cabrera doesn’t miss games. The Marlins should have kept him and just given him shares of ownership or something.

Paul Konerko – CHI (119.0 Runs Created, -10.2 Runs Saved = 108.8 Total Runs Productivity)

A fantastic season for the White Sox first baseman. Konerko hit a ton, doesn’t necessarily help with the glove, and has been rather productive for a number of years now. It was his sixth 30 homer season, fifth of at least 100 RBI, and third time clearing .300 in batting average. Turns 35 in March, so don’t be surprised if there’s a drop off this year. Adam Dunn will give Konerko a break between DH duties and add even more thunder to the middle of the lineup.

Billy Butler – KC (109.3 Runs Created, -1.3 Runs Saved = 108.0 Total Runs Productivity)

Konerko edged Butler by a shade less than a run, but I’d rather have Butler. He’s worked hard to become a tolerable defensive player, he doesn’t have the top end power of Cabrera but he’s a threat to get 200 hits a year, and he’s capable of hitting 25 homers (or more) at some point – based on his hitting 45 doubles last year and 51 in 2009. If you are in a keeper fantasy league, go get him.

Kevin Youkilis – BOS (82.8 Runs Created, 17.8 Runs Saved = 100.6 Total Runs Productivity)

An injury ended his season after just 102 games, but few people actually produce a full productive run per game and Youkilis nearly did just that. When Mike Lowell was forced to play there more regularly, he looked okay defensively (as you might expect), but he didn’t generate any offense, which contributed to the Red Sox falling off as the season progressed. Is Kevin Youkilis a potential Hall of Famer? Let the discussion begin. Adrian Gonzalez, imported from San Diego, will take over the role, moving Youkilis over to third base.

Michael Cuddyer – MIN (88.9 Runs Created, 1.2 Runs Saved = 90.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Justin Morneau was hitting like Ted Williams when a concussion ended his season after just 81 games. Cuddyer took over down the stretch and was very good. He played the position well enough (he actually saved 4.5 runs as a first baseman but gave a few runs away in the outfield) and hits for power among his other virtues. Morneau says he’ll be ready for spring training, and the Twins hope he’s at 100% when the season starts. If not, Cuddyer is a fine alternative.

Ty Wigginton – BAL (72.2 Runs Created, 15.0 Runs Saved = 87.2 Total Runs Productivity)

Wigginton, who can play all over the infield and outfield, got the lion’s share of innings and was surprisingly effective as a first baseman, if not quite a solid offensive contributor. His 22 homers and 76 RBIs look okay, but the .248/.415/.316 percentage line as a bit weak for the position. In the SI baseball preview, Joe Sheehan suggested that Garrett Atkins was a lousy short-term solution for a team that should be focusing on youth. Atkins hit .214 with 1 homer in 140 at bats – nailing that prediction.

Daric Barton – OAK (92.7 Runs Created, -17.3 Runs Saved = 75.4 Total Runs Productivity)

Oakland says they are happy with Barton, who is a poor man’s Mark Grace. Barely enough power but gets on base a lot, hits a few doubles. However, he doesn’t seem to have Grace’s defensive skills. To his credit, he’s gotten better every year, he’s just 25, and he has room to grow. If he can find his comfort zone defensively and add a little more offense, he’d get to 100 runs of productivity for sure, which would make him a more valuable commodity.

Carlos Pena – TB (72.6 Runs Created, 0.5 Runs Saved = 73.1 Total Runs Productivity)

The Cubs payed $10 million for a guy who got 95 hits in 571 plate appearances. Still has power, still has a great eye, but strikes out a ton and is no longer a defensive force as he ages. If he hits .240 as a Cub, I’ll take it – but I’ll also be surprised.

Justin Morneau – MIN (81.9 Runs Created, -12.0 Runs Saved = 69.9 Total Runs Productivity)

A concussion suffered when getting kneed in the head while sliding into second base ended his season. A ferocious hitter, but a brick with the glove. See Michael Cuddyer, above.

Lyle Overbay – TOR (74.4 Runs Created, -6.5 Runs Saved = 67.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Showed a little power to make up for his fading batting average, still draws a few walks. His strikeout rate makes you nervous and he no longer flashes the leather as well as he used to. He’s outside the top ten at his position, and that means he’s won a job in Pittsburgh. At least he’s durable, right? Looking over the Blue Jays roster, does this mean Adam Lind or Travis Snider or Jose Bautista or someone is moving over? Watch the Jays in Spring Training and see what happens.

Justin Smoak – TEX/SEA (40.6 Runs Created, 17.5 Runs Saved = 58.1 Total Runs Productivity)

Should get the Seattle job in 2011, unless Mariners management goes through another round of goofiness. Didn’t hit very well and needs to show improvement, but he did flash leather in two cities. Still a kid – worth giving 500 at bats to see what happens. See Casey Kotchman, below.

Mike Napoli – LAA (73.1 Runs Created, -19.2 Runs Saved = 53.3 Total Runs Productivity)

See Kendry Morales, below. Played first because he was probably the best option when Morales went down but really isn’t a first baseman. May get time there in Texas for 2011, but I’d rather see him catch five days and DH twice a week.

Kendry Morales – LAA (35.1 Runs Created, 11.2 Runs Saved = 46.3 Total Runs Productivity)

Mike Napoli played 140 more innings because Morales went down to a freak leg injury celebrating a home run. Morales was pacing for about 135 runs of total productivity, which would have placed him ahead of Cabrera, when he was sidelined. Hits for power and average, great range – a fantastic player. His injury, as much as anything, cost the Angels the AL West. It forced an out of position player to first and put a bad hitter in the lineup – costing the team about 80 runs over the course of the season.

Casey Kotchman – SEA (43.4 Runs Created, -5.9 Runs Saved = 37.5 Total Runs Productivity)

I’m not sure what Seattle was thinking here – Kotchman hasn’t been consistent as a Mark Grace type, falling off to hitting just .217 last year. He gets raves for his glove, but hasn’t been consistent there, either. They should have just committed to Russell Branyan, given him a decent check, and let him come to the park confident in having a job. If Seattle is serious about contending, they need to find 70 more runs at this position in 2011. Justin Smoak was imported from Texas for Branyan and has power and a decent eye, seems to be a much better fielder. A full season of Smoak, especially if he can improve from .218 to .260 and hit 25 homers, would be worth at least 45 more runs. If Kotchman gets a full season of at bats anymore, I’ll be stunned.

Mitch Moreland – TEX (24.5 Runs Created, -3.3 Runs Saved = 21.2 Total Runs Productivity)

Chris Davis had the job but couldn’t hit .200. Justin Smoak got a chance, wasn’t horrible, but was sent to Seattle for Russell Branyan. Jorge Cantu was imported from Florida and didn’t really earn much playing time. Mitch Moreland took over down the stretch and was pretty good – hit for power, got on base, did the job at first – though he needs to get comfortable there and a full season later he might not be too bad. He’s low down the list now, but expect him to move up a few notches in 2011.

Matt LaPorta – CLE (42.9 Runs Created, -25.0 Runs Saved = 17.9 Total Runs Productivity)

Russell Branyan came over from Seattle and was far more productive in his 47 games at first (32.8 total runs) than LaPorta, who played 93 games at first and another seven in left field and butchered it both offensively and defensively. Of course, Branyan doesn’t have a job and LaPorta is listed at the top of the depth chart heading into Spring Training. Pity my friends who are Cleveland fans.

Top NL Left Fielders in 2009

Posted on February 21, 2010 by Paul Proia

Ryan Braun (MIL): A threat to win the triple crown at some point, and now a tolerable fielder (much better in left than at third base), Ryan Braun is one of the five most valuable properties in baseball. (148.3 Runs Created, 1.84 Runs Saved = 150.09 Total Run Production)

Jason Bay, had he played in the NL, would rank here. The Mets did okay with this signing…

Matt Holliday (OAK/STL): After arriving in STL, he hit like Albert Pujols and fielded like Chris Duncan. He’s not usually that bad a fielder, so I wouldn’t worry about it. (126.5 Runs Created, -13.4 Runs Saved = 113.1 Total Run Production)

Nyjer Morgan (PIT/WAS): In Pittsburgh, Morgan played left and was supurb defensively and acceptable offensively. Moved to Washington, Morgan played in center and was supurb both ways. A late start to his career because he started as a hockey player, he’s the type of player that anybody would be happy to have around. I don’t think he’s going to be a 100 run producer every year, but for the next three or four years, he might just be a top flight ballplayer. (76.2 Runs Created, 26.9 Runs Saved = 103.08 Total Run Production)

Josh Willingham (WAS): Forever, Josh Willingham has been among the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. Last year, either (a) his back was feeling WAY better than it had been in recent years or (b) Nationals pitchers allowed an ungodly number of fly balls to left than in previous seasons. Regardless, Willingham had a solid season with the bat in a tough place to hit and caught more than his share of fly balls. As someone who liked him when he was with the Marlins, to see Willingham exceed our expectations is fun. (78.5 Runs Created, 5.7 Runs Saved = 84.23 Total Run Production)

Raul Ibanez (PHI): At some point in the early summer, it looked like Ibanez would hit 50 homers. And then the aches of being mid-to-late 30s kicked in and things changed. Still, Ibanez was a valuable performer and contributed to the Phillies success. I DON’T see him as much better than this in 2010, but if he stays in the remarkable shape he’s in, he should be fine. (96.0 Runs Created, -13.2 Runs Saved = 82.86 Total Run Production)

Adam Dunn (WAS): Also a first baseman, Dunn really should be a DH. One of the most feared hitters, Dunn just gives a ton of runs back defensively such that his overall value suffers. In the AL, that wouldn’t matter. (115.0 Runs Created, -33.54 Runs Saved = 81.45 Total Run Production)

Daniel Murphy (NYM): Like Dunn, plays a lot of first base but isn’t an embarrassment here. Not really the offensive weapon you’d like at the position. (71.5 Runs Created, 10.0 Runs Saved = 81.44 Total Run Production)

Chase Headley (SD): Living in San Diego puts a crimp in his stats, but he’s not a horrible hitter. He’s really an above average hitter, but a slightly below average outfielder. The net is just okay, though – and on most teams he would be a fourth outfielder. (86.0 Runs Created, -4.8 Runs Saved = 81.17 Total Run Production)

Chris Coghlan (FLA): Two incredible months of two hit games, day after day… Didn’t come up until May, took about a month to figure things out. He’s miscast as a left fielder – had played the infield pretty much his whole life until called to the big leagues. The Marlins hope that he’s their leadoff man for the next three to five years – until he’s due for arbitration, that is. (86.4 Runs Created, -8.4 Runs Saved = 78.02 Total Run Production)

Carlos Lee (HOU): See Adam Dunn. Carlos Lee can hit, even though he’s showing signs of aging, but he doesn’t move around very well anymore and needs to be a DH soon. (108.2 Runs Created, -31.8 Runs Saved = 76.32 Total Run Production)

Manny Ramirez (LAD): Cheater. I’m betting he’s been a cheater for a long time now. Notice how all the cheaters play for Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre (as well as in Boston, where this was also encouraged)? People talk about how steroid use will keep Mark McGwire out of the Hall of Fame. Will it keep Tony LaRussa out of the Hall? It should. (84.3 Runs Created, -10.7 Runs Saved = 73.58 Total Run Production)

Juan Pierre (LAD): When he bats over .300 and gets on base, he can be a productive offensive player. In left field, where he still has far more range than most left fielders, he comes out as a positive. If the White Sox try him in center, where he doesn’t really have that kind of range, and Pierre hits .280 and doesn’t add a few walks, then he’s a bust. (65.3 Runs Created, 1.2 Runs Saved = 66.50 Total Run Production.

Seth Smith (COL): Showed a balanced set of skills – he didn’t get as many at bats, but the rates were much like Troy Tulowitzki. And, defensively, he was a step up over Matt Holliday. If he keeps this up, he’ll be a force in Colorado. (58.8 Runs Created, 7.5 Runs Saved = 66.29 Total Run Production)

Fernando Tatis (NYM): Played all over for the Mets and was surprisingly good defensively. My personal take on it was that it was (a) another year in the majors where he felt more comfortable, and (b) a bit lucky. He also hit pretty well, batting .282 with a touch of power. Had he done this a few years ago, he might not have disappeared. (53.3 Runs Created, 13.9 Runs Saved = 66.20 Total Run Production)

Matt Diaz (ATL): His bat returned, but his defensive range slipped. Still, a very valuable performer for Atlanta and probably should have been a regular for a couple of years now. (77.5 Runs Created, -14.5 Runs Saved = 63.02 Total Run Production)

Alfonso Soriano (CHC): A miserable season for one of the highly priced players on the Cubs roster – but probably isn’t going to give any of that money back. Below average baserunner these days to go along with a fading bat and abysmal OBP. Holds his own with the leather, but if the Cubs are going to challenge for the crown, this guy has to make a comeback. I just don’t think, at this point in his career, that a comeback is possible. Sam Fuld, who got a lot of innings in the outfield, would be a better leadoff hitter with his .400 OBP. (59.0 Runs Created, 1.5 Runs Saved = 60.50 Total Run Production)

Garrett Anderson (ATL): Did about what I expected – which was slip a little further and struggle defensively. While Anderson is still a better hitter than most people who try to play baseball, he’s now merely league average as a regular. To be honest, he’s a veteran bench player at best these days. (65.0 Runs Created, -8.0 Runs Saved = 57.03 Total Run Production)

Carlos Gonzalez (COL): Fourth outfielder on this roster, but a good one. Could be a starter on other teams. (49.0 Runs Created, 4.7 Runs Saved = 53.75 Total Run Production)

Gerardo Parra (ARI): Called up mid-season, Parra should have room to grow. Despite the decent batting average (.290), he’s got a lousy OBP and and marginal power – which left him slightly below average in terms of runs created per 27 outs made. That being said, a second season might be 10 – 15% better – more comfortable in the outfield and at the plate – and if he’s better, Parra worth playing. Besides, Parra turns 23 in May and made the jump from AA to the majors – all while hitting .290 – those are the things you look for in a prospect. (56.0 Runs Created, -2.5 Runs Saved = 53.49 Total Run Production)

Jeremy Hermida (FLA): Now in Boston where he can take two strikes and always bat behind in the count there instead. Hermida is actually mobile, but he’s awkward and uncomfortable diving or playing the wall. In Florida, where the wall is a mini-monster in left field, this was a problem and it showed up in the way he plays. Having watched him for a few years now, the issue is one of confidence and aggression. Someone needs to get it in his head that it’s okay to look for a pitch to drive earlier in the count and give it a rip – and that diving for a ball from time to time won’t hurt him. Otherwise, he just strikes you as someone who has loads of talent but is too passive to take advantage of it. Chris Coghlan is a patient hitter, too – but when he sees a pitch he can hit, attacks it. Hermida doesn’t attack anything. (55.9 Runs Created, -8.7 Runs Saved = 47.20 Total Run Production)

Fred Lewis (SF): Drew a few walks, but he doesn’t hit for a high average or hit for much power, hence his low rating here. (40.7 Runs Created, 5.7 Runs Saved = 46.38 Total Run Production)

Jonny Gomes (CIN): Had a really good year with the bat, but really isn’t a fielder. I was surprised that Cincy didn’t just scoop the guy up and keep him around, though, but the Reds haven’t always been the brightest of franchises for a while now. (52.9 Runs Created, -8.5 Runs Saved = 44.43 Total Run Production)

Ryan Spilborghs (COL): Useful fourth or fifth outfielder who got 300+ innings in left. Seth Smith earned the job for 2010, though. (40 Runs Created, 0.1 Run Saved = 40.01 Total Run Production)

Laynce Nix (CIN): The other half of the left field platoon – Gomes and Nix combineed for 35 homers and 97 RBI – which would rank pretty well up this list. Nix is younger and a bit more mobile, but I’m not sure I’d take him over Gomes. Nix has had nearly three full seasons and his career batting mark is .236 with no OBP to speak of. (43.8 Runs Created, -4.7 Runs Saved = 39.09 Total Run Production)

Wladimir Balentien (SEA/CIN): Overrated prospect who played pretty well after arriving in Cincinnati. There’s always hope. (32.6 Runs Created, 5.8 Runs Saved = 38.3 Total Run Production)

Gary Sheffield (NYM): The man can hit. Can’t run much anymore, but still has a smoking hot bat. Somebody will likely give him a shot, but he’s running out of teams to infuriate. What do you make of a guy with 500 career homers, and might still have an outside shot at 3000 hits (he’s at 2689), may get past 1700 RBI this year and 1800 for his career, and has more than 250 stolen bases? If I were San Diego or Pittsburgh or Kansas City, I’d give him a job and leave him alone. (47.0 Runs created, -9.1 Runs Saved = 37.95 Total Run Production)

Eugenio Velez (SF): See Fred Lewis. Andres Torres is better than both of them… (36.4 Runs Created, 0.5 Runs Saved = 36.9 Total Run Production)

Eric Byrnes (ARI): The body is finally giving out on the old warrior. Now in Seattle where he’ll be a fun fifth outfielder. Still plays great defense… (24.5 Runs Created, 8.3 Runs Saved = 32.85 Total Run Production)

Lastings Millege (PIT): The National League’s answer to Delmon Young. Uninspired ballplayer who hasn’t taken that next step forward. (31.5 Runs Created, -0.8 Runs Saved = 30.7 Total Run Production)

Chris Duncan (STL/BOS AAA): Didn’t hit enough, can’t cover any ground. Needs to launch a new career as a DH or else it’s over and over fast. (32.2 Runs Created, -15.0 Runs Saved = 17.17 Total Run Production)

Top NL Third Basemen in 2009

Posted on February 19, 2010 by Paul Proia

Ryan Zimmerman (WAS): The Evan Longoria of the National League – hits for a decent average, has solid power, gets on base, and flashes the leather. As a hitter, I show Zimmerman as actually creating three more runs than Longoria, but Longoria had the better season defensively. The best player the Nationals have ever had. (117.9 Runs Created, 15.0 Runs Saved = 132.82 Total Run Production)

Casey Blake (LAD): Had a decent season with the bat and an unbelievable year with the glove. Kemp, Loney, and Ethier get all the pub, but Casey Blake was second on the team in total production. I went back and checked – he hadn’t played that well at third defensively before, so I won’t be surprised if he falls back in 2010, but his offensive numbers were in line with previous seasons. Another guy the Indians couldn’t use… (91.1 Runs Created, 25.23 Runs Saved = 116.35 Total Run Production)

Pablo Sandoval (SF): Kung Fu Panda is a first baseman in waiting, but wow can he hit. He wasn’t AWFUL at third base, just below average defensively, but you can live with it if he hits .330 with 25 homers. The new Kirby Puckett. (122.4 Runs Created, -6.4 Runs Saved = 115.94 Total Run Production)

Mark Reynolds (ARI): As long as we’re comparing people, Reynolds is an upgrade over Adam Dunn, right? He strikes out a LOT – but 44 homers and a .351 OBP is really good production. However just 102 RBI suggests that he’d be even more productive for his teammates if he would just make more contact. Not a horrible fielder either – slightly better than the Panda. (104.6 Runs Created, -4.4 Runs Saved = 100.26 Total Run Production)

Andy LaRoche (PIT): Did you know he had that good a glove? Just an ordinary hitter – .260 with .400 SLG and a few walks throw in for good – but his defense moved him well up the list. You can’t sneeze at 34 double plays to just 14 errors. (69.0 Runs Created, 30.3 Runs Saved = 99.29 Total Run Production)

Jorge Cantu (FLA): If a third baseman and not a first baseman, Cantu would rank about here. Maybe a slot or two lower.

Pedro Feliz (PHI): Had Andy LaRoche’s season with more RBI because of who he bats behind. Polanco has a better batting average, but I don’t think he’ll match Feliz with the leather. Feliz’s problem, if he has one, is that he makes too many outs. You want guys who average at least 5 runs for every 27 outs, and Feliz is consistently around 4.2. However, there aren’t many guys who save you 20 runs a year with the leather – and he’s been there three of the last four years (only an injury riddled 2008 didn’t add up). So, you might concede 20 runs of offense for that. I like Polanco, but Feliz was a big part of the Phillies’ success. (68.6 Runs Created, 24.5 Runs Saved = 93.15 Total Run Production)

David Wright (NYM): Not his best effort, but then again I think the park worked against him, and the injuries around him worked against him, and eventually he was dragged down by the entirety of it all. He still produced runs – he batted .307 and got on base nearly 40% of the time. However, his home run numbers dashed (the Mets are lowering the left field wall for 2010) and he took his frustration to the field – only 19 double plays against 18 errors. I like his chances to bounce back some, but he’s never going to be as good as Ryan Zimmerman. I just hope the Mets appreciate what he does and doesn’t focus on that gap between Wright and the top guys. (102.9 Runs Created, -13.3 Runs Saved = 89.61 Total Run Production)

Scott Rolen (TOR/CIN): Add it all up and he ranks about here. I don’t think he’s a .320 hitter, as he was in Toronto for the first 100 days, but he still has skills. He is NOT a glove man anymore, and while he’s more dependable than Edwin Encarnacion, he may not be healtier every month. Still a good player, though. (84.1 Runs Created, -5.6 Runs Saved = 78.5 Total Run Production)

Juan Uribe (SF): If rated as a third baseman would fall about here. He’s a solid player.

Chipper Jones (ATL): His OBP is still strong, but the end is nearing for this future Hall of Famer. Hasn’t really measured up with the glove in years, and his offensive numbers – while still pretty good – are heading in the wrong direction. (87.7 Runs Created, -18.1 Runs Saved = 69.56 Total Run Production)

Kevin Kouzmanoff (SD): Only three errors last year – one of the best fielding percentages of all time. Of course, he doesn’t have much range – so that makes him Ron Cey with longer legs. He’ll help the A’s, though. (78.0 Runs Created, -8.9 Runs Saved = 69.05 Total Run Production)

Casey McGehee (MIL): Had a solid season at the plate (.301 AVG, .499 SLG), taking over for Bill Hall (who didn’t) and was tolerable with the glove. If he plays 150 games, he might move up two or three slots in the rankings for 2010. (68.3 Runs Created, -4.1 Runs Saved = 64.27 Total Run Production)

Aramis Ramirez (CHC): I don’t know if he’ll ever play 120 games again – his body just breaks down constantly now. Still a formidable offensive force, his glove is merely average these days. Makes the Cubs better when he’s in there, though. (58.1 Runs Created, -1.0 Runs Saved = 57.02 Total Run Production)

Mark DeRosa (CLE/STL): Struggled upon arriving in STL, but his defense had been off all season. Reaching the age at which a comeback isn’t in the Cards – but the Cards will be counting on one. (77.6 Runs Created, -26.8 Runs Saved – 50.80 Total Run Production)

Emilio Bonifacio (FLA): Really fast. Had an awesome first week of the season and then reverted to where I thought he’d be – which is not much of a hitter and slightly out of position at third base. In Florida, though, he’s the new Alfredo Amezaga. (44.0 Runs Created, -7.7 Runs Saved = 36.22 Total Run Production)

Ian Stewart (COL): A Garrett Atkins clone. Hits for some power, his batting average should scare you, and he can’t field the position. New Rockie Melvin Mora is a significant step up, even at this point in Mora’s career. (58.1 Runs Created, -23.4 Runs Saved = 34.68 Total Run Production).

Edwin Encarnacion (CIN/TOR): I don’t know why Toronto would want him. Indifferent fielder and not a dependable hitter. Probably one more year of 100 games in his career, and the rest of the time he’ll be a back up or playing in AAA as an insurance policy for somebody. Maybe he needs to go to Japan. (39.8 Runs Created, -7.2 Runs Saved = 32.6 Total Run Production)

Wes Helms (FLA): Back up third baseman and professional pinch hitter – but ranked nearly as high as Stewart in far less time. (30.19 Total Run Productiom)

Garrett Atkins (COL): See Ian Stewart. (33.4 Runs Created, -7.4 Runs Saved = 25.98 Total Run Production)

Geoff Blum (HOU): See Ian Stewart – but with less power. If Houston wants to be serious about fixing the problems on the team, it should start with replacing Blum. (46.2 Runs Created, -23.6 Runs Saved = 22.62 Total Run Production)

Top NL First Basemen in 2009

Posted on February 17, 2010 by Paul Proia

Albert Pujols (STL): Far and away the best player in baseball, as he has been since he arrived nearly a decade ago. Nobody approached his offensive production and he remains the best fielding first baseman in the game. As such, his overall production exceeded 225 runs – a staggering total. I show Pujols as about 50 runs better than the next most productive player in the game. The question going forward will not be whether Pujols belongs in the Hall of Fame, but whether Pujols is the greatest player God invented. (178.7 Runs Created, 46.8 Runs Saved = 225.52 Total Run Production)

Adrian Gonzalez (SD): In most years, this kind of production would lead his league – much less his position. Instead, he’s just the second most productive player in baseball. No wonder the Red Sox (and everybody else) wants him. Dependable and rangy at first base, hits for power and has a solid OBP. And, he’s doing this in San Diego – the hardest place to put up decent offensive numbers. It took a while for Gonzalez to reach his fullest potential, but you have to like the total package. (143.3 Runs Created, 31.05 Runs Saved = 174.38 Total Run Production)

Ryan Howard (PHI): Had a normal season for him (45 – 151 – .279), but seems to be getting more comfortable defensively. Howard hit .207 with just 6 homers in 222 at bats – I have no idea why any team would let him face a righty (39 – 108 – .320 in 394 at bats). By the way, his splits against lefties were WORSE than his career rate (.226 with 53 homers in 935 at bats). So that’s not a good thing. (127.6 Runs Created, 11.66 Runs Saved = 139.25 Total Run Production)

Prince Fielder (MIL): The second most productive hitter in baseball, but his range at first base is now problematic. In 2006, I showed Fielder as being slightly above average (where Ryan Howard is now). In 2007 and 2008, he was about ten runs worse than average. Last year, he was atrocious. Some of this could have been his pitching staff (Corey Hart had lousy numbers in right field), but giving him 20 runs back still makes him about 10 runs worse than average. Of course, when you create 150 runs of offense, you can live with the glove. (157.9 Runs Created, -31.0 Runs Saved = 126.88 Total Run Production)

Pablo Sandoval (SF): A third baseman, but probably should play first base instead. If he played first base regularly, he’d rate here…

Jorge Cantu (FLA): Had a surprisingly good season defensively – frankly, I’m stunned, but if you look at how few assists the rest of the infielders had and then see how many putouts he had, you realize that Cantu takes charge of the infield and makes the most of his time out there. Additionally, he’s a reasonably productive hitter – an old school definition RBI guy, gets lots of chances and seems to drive in runs whenever called upon. He’s NOT that productive a hitter – he’s good, but not that good. However, if he fields like Derrek Lee used to, it’s a valuable package. (84.9 Runs Created, 25.3 Runs Saved = 110.24 Total Run Production)

James Loney (LAD): Looking at his stats, I can’t see a difference between Loney and Cantu. Medium range power, RBIs when opportunities arise, solid defense. (90.4 Runs Created, 17.58 Runs Saved = 108.03 Total Run Production)

Adam LaRoche (PIT/BOS/ATL): Had a reasonably good year with the glove – better than any in recent years (since 2006, for sure). Coupled with decent power and a fair eye, LaRoche was reasonably productive in 2009. That he’s suddenly moving around more than a regional sales director makes me think his career will start moving downhill, but for now he’s still worth keeping around. And, compared to what the Diamondbacks had last year, LaRoche is a significant step forward. It would help him measurably if he could hit in April. The Pittsburgh job now lands on Jeff Clement, a former Mariner prospect who hasn’t shown major league hitting ability yet. (99.8 Runs Created, 7.7 Runs Saved = 107.5 Total Run Production)

Joey Votto (CIN): Missed time this summer dealing with ailments both mental and physical, otherwise he would have rated higher. Votto is a surpremely talented hitter and a tolerable fielder. Mashed lefties and righties with equal aplomb in 2009 but gets more walks and power against righties. I’d love to have him on my team – and he’s my pick to have a crazy breakout season. (112.6 Runs Created, -5.2 Runs Saved = 107.33 Total Run Production)

Todd Helton (COL): Still hits well – power stats like Loney but gets on base more often. His fielding draws raves, but with a stiff back and older wheels, he’s really just a dependable ball catcher who doesn’t have much range anymore. I wrote about how much Helton has been helped by playing in Colorado, but even at that, he’s been a good player for a lot of years. When he comes up for the Hall of Fame ballot, it’ll be interesting to see how he fares. (99.9 Runs Created, 0.8 Runs Saved = 100.69 Total Run Production)

Derrek Lee (CHC): His back and neck must have really been bothering him as his defensive contribution – usually in the top three or four at first base – was actually among the worst fielders at the position in 2009. His bat returned to form, however, and he’s been a good hitter (occasionally great hitter) for a long time now. If I were a betting man, however, I’d be picking Lee as one player who might slip in 2010. At the end of the season, Lee turns 35 – so time and various injuries are going to start working against him. As a Derrek Lee fan, I don’t want to see this happen – but the Cubs will have to plan for replacing Lee in the next couple of years. (114.7 Runs Created, -16.7 Runs Saved = 97.98 Total Run Production.)

Lance Berkman (HOU): Already appears to have lost a step as a fielder and hitter and that decline contributed to Cecil Cooper’s firing. Even having slipped, Berkman puts runs on the board. Now 34, Berkman is in a race against father time… Hey, Astros fans – who has been a greater player over his career: Lance Berkman, Craig Biggio or Jeff Bagwell? (98.9 Runs Created, -4.9 Runs Saved = 94.07 Total Run Production)

Adam Dunn (WAS): Not much of a fielder here or in left field – but I think I’d rather him be at first base. Offensively, he’s still a force – but he’s a poor man’s Prince Fielder. (115.0 Runs Created, -33.54 Runs Saved – 81.45 Total Run Production)

Daniel Murphy (NYM): Took over when Carlos Delgado could no longer play; he’s mobile and a fair hitter. Considering what the rest of the league has above him, Murphy is going to have to step up considerably to help the Mets long term. I think he can get up to where Cantu or Loney are, but he’ll never be GREAT. At this point, the Mets would settle for solid. (71.5 Runs Created, 10 Runs Saved = 81.45 Total Run Production)

Travis Ishikawa (SF): A smooth fielder with middling power, at this position it’s not going to cut it – which is why the Giants acquired Aubrey Huff. I think Ryan Garko would have been a better option for 2010, but they didn’t ask me… Ishikawa might hang around for years as a pinch hitter, low cost option for the position. (41.1 Runs Created, 23.26 Runs Saved = 64.34 Total Run Production)

Casey Kotchman (ATL/BOS): A glove man who hits like Ishikawa, too. Has moved around a lot because he doesn’t put many runs on the board. Now in Seattle, I bet the Mariners fans will miss Russell Branyan by mid July. (53.0 Runs Created, 5.1 Runs Saved = 58.1 Total Run Production)

Nick Johnson (WAS/FLA): A coveted free agent, but I’m not sure why. He gets on base, but doesn’t create a TON of runs because he has marginal power. As a fielder, he’s abysmal. Here’s an odd stat for you. Nick Johnson’s defense at first base was so poor that he cost the Marlins more runs with this glove than he actually produced with his bat.

You think I’m kidding? Let’s look at putouts per inning data. When Jorge Cantu played first, he had 829 putouts in 850 innings. When Johnson played first, he had 192 putouts in 260.2 innings. In the same number of innings, that works out to 626 putouts – or 200 (!) fewer than Cantu had. Does Johnson catch any pop ups, foul balls or line drives? Apparently not. Maybe he’s a ground ball repellent – when in the field, the pitchers only got fly balls to the outfield for outs. I digress.

He’s a DH/#2 hitter – which I imagine might be his job with the Yankees in 2010. (78.0 Runs Created, -23.3 Runs Saved = 54.7 Total Run Production)

Chad Tracy (ARI): Got the most action there, but really only played half a season for the Diamondbacks. He’s gone – thankfully – and Adam LaRoche will improve the output at this position immediately. (28.4 Runs Created, -5.1 Runs Saved = 23.33 Total Run Production)

Mighty Casey Awards – Gold Glove Winners in the NL

Posted on January 25, 2010 by Paul Proia

When ranking defensive players, I have long used a modified system that I once built so that I could assign defensive ratings to players for the board game Superstar Baseball. The issue at hand was how to rank fielders when (a) fielding stats are affected by things like balls in play, and (b) can you get it to a system that more or less tells you how that player affects the batting average of the hitter. That’s what a gamer is looking to replicate.

Well – I figured that out. But what made it valuable to me was when I figured out how to convert plays not made (essentially hits added) into runs using a table of values in Total Baseball. I don’t know if you remember that encyclopedia, but Pete Palmer had calculated the value of each hit into runs.

Here’s how I do it.

1) Get the number of balls in play for the team.

2) Figure out the number of plays made by a player for every 800 balls in play. Why 800? Because for every 1000 at bats, there will likely be about 200 strikeouts or homers – so by using 800, one additional play made by a fielder is essentially removing one point of batting average to a hitter. Also, let’s face it, a fielder is going to have more chances if his team is loaded with sinker slider guys who get the ball in play, than a big strikeout guy. So, to get things to a common number of balls in play is a fairer way to evaluate each position.

3) Once I have the number of hits removed (or added) based on that Range/800 factor, compare that number to a run value for hits allowed based on the position. For outfielders, it’s a combination of singles, doubles, or triples (for center and right fielders). For corner infielders, it’s singles and doubles. For middle infielders, it’s all singles. I have a different system for catchers, and since pitchers don’t play many innings, I tend to look at it from the team perspective – but it works.

4) I make minor modifications for things like double plays, as well as putouts made by outfielders as that shows the groundball/flyball tendency of a staff. And, for first basemen, I remove infielder assists from his putouts total.

5) Finally, I wind up with two numbers – a “range per 800” value, and a runs saved (or allowed) value.

Here’s the National League Position Gold Gloves and Brick Gloves. The first number listed is his range per 800 plays above or below average for the position, and the second number is runs saved (or allowed).

Right Field:

7.48 22.42 Jayson Werth (PHI)
6.38 11.67 Randy Winn (SF)

22.27 13.17 Kosuke Fukudome (CHI) ***263 innings

Werth made more plays in RF than Shane Victorino made in CF… Fukudome played 1/5th the innings that Werth did, but at that pace would have had 395 putouts – which would be solid for a centerfielder… Does anyone other than me think that Randy Winn is an underrated defensive wizard?

-10.07 -28.14 Brad Hawpe (COL) – third straight year
– 9.66 -22.00 Corey Hart (MIL)

Hawpe hasn’t been close to average since 2006. In 540 innings, Matt Diaz was brutal in RF with a -14.38 range factor, costing his team 17.56 runs.

Center Field:

12.26 19.26 Tony Gwynn (SD)
4.96 17.77 Matt Kemp (LAD)
6.06 10.80 Willy Taveras (CIN)
14.35 12.62 Nyjer Morgan (WAS)

Morgan was good, but not that good in the few innings he played in Pittsburgh and didn’t have enough innings to qualify, but in WASH he was amazing out there… However, he was lights out in LF in Pittsburgh, and I might have given him award for the combined effort.

-9.15 -25.58 Shane Victorino (PHI)
-6.45 -13.86 Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

Maybe Victorino deferred to Werth on anything hit to right… The NET result is slightly below average between the two of them. McCutcheon is learning the league and will probably get better – but he’s not a natural at this point.

Left Field:

10.25 13.88 Nyjer Morgan (PIT)
4.67 7.53 Seth Smith (COL)

Not many to choose from, really. Most of the good ones didn’t play many innings here. One odd note – Fernando Tatis was a ball magnet in the 179 innings he played in left field – which is why I tend to ignore guys until they play 500 or 1000 innings. Tatis caught 56 flies in just about 20 games in the field, which at that pace works out to 375 putouts in 140 games. The most anybody had in left field was Ryan Braun, who made 304 plays out there.

-11.39 -32.31 Carlos Lee (HOU)
-12.33 -15.36 Matt Holiday (STL)
-11.09 -13.76 Chris Duncan (STL)

Lee looked bigger and slower when I watched him and the stats bear this out. And, I pity the poor St. Louis pitchers…

Shortstop:

13.05 23.58 Brendan Ryan (STL)
17.54 23.16 Paul Janish (CIN)
11.97 13.74 Everth Cabrera (SD)

None of these guys played 1000 innings, but they all played 590 or more innings very well. The best to clear 1000 innings was Chicago’s Ryan Theriot (2.59 range, 8.45 runs saved).

-12.31 -26.07 Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
-13.71 -12.02 Alberto Gonzalez (WAS)
– 2.52 -10.16 Cristian Guzman (WAS)

Didn’t they award the Gold Glove to Rollins? Did anyone notice that he made hardly any plays out there? Miguel Tejada had two more putouts and 86 more assists in roughly the same number of innings. Yunel Escobar played 150+ fewer innings and had 20 more assists. The only regular to make fewer plays per nine was the immobile Edgar Renteria. let’s say that there is some bias in the ground ball distribution – if you add Rollins and Utley together, it’s still a negative. If you add Rollins and Feliz together, it’s still a negative. Rollins had a lousy year – has been overrated for a few years now, and should stop being considered as a good fielder.

Third Baseman:

10.37 30.30 Andy LaRoche (PIT)
7.56 25.18 Pedro Feliz (PHI)
8.36 25.14 Casey Blake (LAD)

A couple of guys having very good years – I never thought Blake was that good and Feliz was better than ever (cutting off grounders to short?). Did you know that LaRoche was that good either? The usual suspects of previous seasons (Zimmerman, Wright) were off. Zimmerman was still good, but Wright was below average last year.

-13.66 -20.97 Geoff Blum (HOU)
-11.20 -18.78 Ian Stewart (COL)
– 6.07 -18.11 Chipper Jones (ATL)

Not that Colorado is going to miss Garrett Atkins anymore, but Stewart wasn’t that good a fielder. By the way, if the Marlins are thinking about moving Jorge Cantu back to third, his performance would give me pause (-18.48 / -14.66 runs saved).

Second Baseman:

6.64 18.22 Chase Utley (PHI)
6.17 15.29 Kaz Matsui (HOU)
5.59 13.53 Brandon Phillips (CIN)

Honorable mention to Jeff Baker in just 369 innings for Chicago…

-13.66 -24.76 Skip Schumaker (STL)
– 5.61 -15.30 Dan Uggla (FLA)

The Pirates tried Delwyn Young at second base and it was a bad idea, too. LaRussa won despite this – and a lot of other holes in the defense. I watch Dan Uggla a lot, he’s always struck me as a bit stiff but effective. Makes more good plays than bad, occasionally surprisingly good plays. This suggests that the stiffness is winning, though.

First Baseman:

16.18 46.78 Albert Pujols (STL)
23.10 39.99 Jorge Cantu (FLA)
11.45 31.05 Adrian Gonzalez (SD)

There is such a gap between the most athletic and least athletic players at this position, so the best and worst fielders are further from the average than anywhere else. Pujols is ALWAYS at the top of this list. He plays further off the bag, makes a lot of throws all over the field – a truly amazing first baseman. Gonzalez is the same thing. Cantu is the surprise – I watched him and never would have guessed it. The issue, of course, is that he had three below average fielders at the other spots – so he must have caught a lot of liners and popups to give him a stronger putout total. While Cantu is reasonably mobile, I didn’t see this coming.

-10.74 -31.01 Prince Fielder (MIL)
– 8.07 -16.69 Derrek Lee (CHI)
-17.34 -23.12 Adam Dunn (WAS)
-27.01 -14.14 Nick Johnson (FLA)

I always thought that Fielder was rather graceful for such a big dude – but that size is now too big. Derrek Lee is usually on the other list – but he played a very nicked up season – problems with his neck and back – and this affected his range. Adam Dunn thinks that the only job of a first baseman is to catch throws…

Nick Johnson, however, isn’t usually this bad (he wasn’t very good in Washington, either). However, the Marlins had essentially the same infield up the middle regardless of the first baseman. Cantu had nearly as many putouts as innings played (850 innings, 829 putouts, plus 38 assists). Johnson played 260 innings, made only 192 putouts, but had a few more assists (24). If you extrapolate his numbers to 850 innings, that’s just 626 putouts – nearly 200 fewer than what Cantu had. So, you can see why their rankings are so different.

Versatile Infielders Sign Contracts…

Posted on December 29, 2009 by Paul Proia

Mark DeRosa has had a nice career. It’s taken a while to get going, moving slowly from a versatile sub to more of a “tenth man” to someone who could start and be productive in any of four or five different positions. Still – Mark DeRosa has value in that you can plug him into the lineup to give people days off and not lose much as a hitter. And, as time has moved forward, DeRosa has added more power to his game, which makes him even more valuable.

The San Francisco Giants could use a hitter and adding DeRosa is a nice fit here – as he would be on almost any team. DeRosa has 20 homer power, has 70 RBI in each of the last four years, and will allow Kung Fu Panda to move to first base permanently. I haven’t figured data for 2009 yet, but DeRosa had been a decent third baseman in 2007 and 2008, admittedly in part-time play, but if you add the last three seasons together you have nearly a full-time season and it’s more positive than negative.

If there is a fear in the Giants signing DeRosa to a two-year, $12 million deal it’s that he turns 35 when the pitchers and catchers start warming up. He’s not going to look as good in San Francisco as he had in Wrigley Field or even the Jake by the Lake in Cleveland. And, DeRosa is coming off a wrist injury. So, there is a little risk in making the deal. Just making a guess, I see DeRosa hitting 15 – 65 – .255, which is going to look disappointing to the Giants – and probably not as significant an upgrade at one of the corner infield positions as the Giants need. [SI]

Nationals Sign Bruntlett, Whitesell to Minor League Deals…

One of the few people to turn an unassisted triple play, Eric Bruntlett signed a minor league deal with Washington. Bruntlett doesn’t hit – granted, Bruntlett is more of a late inning defensive guy than a pinch hitter (he’s batted about .215 the last three seasons combined), but he’ll get a shot in spring training to make the team. Another minor league contract went to former Diamondback Josh Whitesell. The Nationals get someone who has some power and patience, though Whitesell appeared to take a step back in 2009. Whitesell had hit .328 with power and walks at Tuscon in 2008, but fell to .293 at Reno last year before getting the call to Arizona last summer. In just 108 at bats, he hit .194 with a single homer.

My heart isn’t totally in it, but you can envision Whitesell batting anywhere from .240 to .270 with 15 – 18 homers if given a shot, but that isn’t a step up from Nick Johnson last year and isn’t going to keep Adam Dunn in the outfield. However, he is an inexpensive and potentially passable backup to Dunn and will likely be the defensive substitute and occasional pinch hitter.